Brief Analysis of Variable Renewable Energy Contribution During Loadshedding (Q1-2019) CSIR Energy Centre

Brief analysis of variable renewable energy contribution during loadshedding (Q1-2019) CSIR Energy Centre

CSIR Energy Centre Pretoria. 9 April 2019 v1.0

JARRAD WRIGHT JOANNE CALITZ [email protected] [email protected] 1 Key takeaways

A constrained power system meant South Africa had to loadshed again in Q1-2019

• The RSA power system again became constrained in Q1-2019 with Eskom needing to loadshed (to Stage 4 at times)

• Causes of loadshedding have been cited as high unplanned plant failures on the thermal coal fleet, depleted diesel (OCGTs) and water (pumped storage) combined with the loss of Cahora Bassa import from Mozambique

• This has been the most intensive loadshedding experienced in RSA with 595 GWh of load shed just in March 2019 of the total 769 GWh in Q1-2019 (there was 1325 GWh of loadshedding throughout 2015)

The utility-scale VRE fleet notably contributed to limit the extent of loadshedding in Q1-2019

• The utility-scale VRE fleet1 contributed 2 975 GWh (5.3%) to the RSA power system in Q1-2019 with monthly contributions ranging from 4.9-6.0%, weekly contributions from 4.1-7.0% and daily contributions from 2.9-7.7%

• During loadshedding periods, the utility-scale VRE fleet contributed 357 GWh of the total 2975 GWh from VRE during Q1-2019 i.e. loadshedding could have increased from 769 GWh to 1126 GWh (a 46% increase)

• Instantaneous contributions from the VRE fleet during loadshedding periods was up to 2.3 GW i.e. without the VRE fleet, loadshedding stage 5 & 6 could have been envoked

1 1.5 GW solar PV, 2.0 GW wind and 0.5 GW CSP; RSA = Republic of South Africa; VRE = variable renewable energy 2 First 3 months of 2019 – most intensive loadshedding in March with 595 GWh of 769 GWh in 2019... 1325 GWh throughout 2015

GWh of load shedding Year Duration (hours) Energy (GWh) 595 600 2015 858 1325 550 2016 - - 500 450 2017 - - 400 2018 127 192 384 350 283 306 2019 272 769 300 12 260 250 36 233 184 6 200 178 174 200 156 138 36 150 63 164 42 122 43 100 190 21 63 24 106 84 122 49 19 50 36 71 60 77 56 40 3 6 5 54 27 9 32 15 0 3 Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 Stage 4 Stage 3 Stage 2 Stage 1

Notes: Load shedding assumed to have taken place for the full hours in which it was implemented. Practically, load shedding (and the Stage) may occassionally change/end during a particular hour; Total GWh calculated assuming Stage 1 = 1 000 MW, Stage 2 = 2 000 MW, Stage 3 = 3 000 MW, Stage 4 = 4 000 MW 3 Sources: Eskom Twitter account; Eskom se Push (mobile app); CSIR analysis Loadshedding in 2015 predominantly during high demand periods (day and evening peaks)… most recently in 2019 this has been day/night

2015

2016 No load shedding 2017 No load shedding

Loadshedding intensity (per year)

No 2018 Loadshedding

Intensive loadshedding Hour of the day --> 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Total 2019 Jan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feb 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 10 10 10 10 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 0 0 174 Mar 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 19 30 31 32 33 33 33 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 29 13 595 Notes: Load shedding assumed to have taken place for the full hours in which it was implemented. Practically, load shedding (and the Stage) may occassionally change/end during a particular hour; Total GWh calculated assuming Stage 1 = 1 000 MW, Stage 2 = 2 000 MW, Stage 3 = 3 000 MW, Stage 4 = 4 000 MW 4 Sources: Eskom Twitter account; Eskom se Push (mobile app); CSIR analysis Procured and operational capacity under RSA’s RE IPP Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) by Q1-2019

Capacity operational Capacity operational (1 January 2019) (31 March 2019) Supply Sources 2078 MW 1479 MW 400 MW 2078 MW 1479 MW 500 MW Solar PV procured, 813 813 PPAs not signed yet 627 591 627 591 417 435 398 417 435 398 Solar PV procured, PPAs signed 591 591 415 415 Solar PV operational BW 1 BW 2 BW 3 BW 3.5 BW 4 BW 4 BW 1 BW 2 BW 3 BW 3.5 BW 4 BW 4 Expedited Expedited Wind procured, 1 362 1 362 PPAs not signed yet 787 686 787 686 Wind procured, 649 650 649 650 559 559 PPAs signed 787 676 650 649 559 676 650 Wind operational

BW 1 BW 2 BW 3 BW 3.5 BW 4 BW 4 BW 1 BW 2 BW 3 BW 3.5 BW 4 BW 4 Expedited Expedited CSP procured, 200 450 200 450 PPAs not signed yet 150 200 100 150 200 100 CSP procured, 50 450 50 450 100 100 200 100 PPAs signed BW 1 BW 2 BW 3 BW 3.5 BW 4 BW 4 BW 1 BW 2 BW 3 BW 3.5 BW 4 BW 4 CSP operational Expedited Expedited Notes: RSA = Republic of South Africa. Wind excludes Eskom’s Sere wind farm (100 MW). BW = Bid Window. PPA = Power Purchase Agreement. BW 4 includes BW 4 additional. 5 Sources: Eskom; DoE IPP Office; http://www.energy.gov.za/files/renewable-energy-status-report/Market-Overview-and-Current-Levels-of-Renewable-Energy-Deployment-NERSA.pdf From 1 November 2013 to 31 March 2019, 2 078 MW of wind, 1 479 MW of large-scale solar PV and 500 MW of CSP became operational in RSA

+100 Capacity operational +718 +100 [MW] 4 057 3 857 3 957 +1 094

3 139 1 479 1 479 1 479 +520 Supply 1 479 Sources +1 053 2 040 Solar PV 1 520 965 2 078 Wind 2 078 2 078 CSP 960 1 460 467 1 075 210 560 500 257 200 300 400 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (Q1)

Notes: RSA = Republic of South Africa. Solar PV capacity = capacity at point of common coupling. Wind includes Eskom’s Sere wind farm (100 MW). 6 Sources: Eskom; DoE IPP Office In Q1-2019 - 3.0 TWh of wind, solar PV and CSP energy was produced in RSA with estimates of over 12 TWh for 2019 expected

Annual energy produced [TWh] 12.4

10.8

9.0 3.3 Supply 9.4 6.9 3.3 Sources Estimate for rest 4.7 2.6 of 2019 6.5 2.2 Solar PV 5.0 2.2 3.7 0.9 Wind 1.1 2.5 1.6 CSP 0.1 0.01 0.05 1.1 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.4 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Notes: Wind includes Eskom’s Sere wind farm (100 MW). CSP energy measured from date when more than two CSP plant were commissioned. Wind and solar PV energy excludes curtailment and is thus lower than actual wind and solar PV generation 7 Sources: Eskom; DoE IPP Office Monthly electricity production of SA’s wind, solar PV and CSP fleet ranging from 4.9-6.0% (similar to previous year)

Monthly electricity production in GWh 6.0% 1 400 % of total 1 300 system load 1 200 1 161 5.0% 4.9% Capacity 1 100 operational (1 Jan-31 Mar) 1 000 337 933 1479 MW 900 880 2078 MW 800 294 273 700 500 MW

600 Supply Sources 500 649 Solar PV 400 Wind 485 503 300 CSP 200 100 176 121 137 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Note: Wind generation includes Eskom’s 100 MW Sere wind farm. CSP energy only measured from date when more than two CSP plant were commissioned. Wind and solar PV energy excludes curtailment and is thus lower than actual wind and solar PV generation. 8 Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis Monthly electricity production from wind, solar PV, CSP, residual load and loadshedding impact in Q1-2019

Monthly electricity production in TWh

22 19.8 20 19.3 17.9 18 Capacity operational 16 (1 Jan-31 Mar)

14 1479 MW 2078 MW 12 500 MW 10 18.2 18.2 Supply Sources 8 16.8 Loadshedding 6 Solar PV Wind 4 CSP 2 Residual Load 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Notes: Pumping load excluded. Wind generation includes Eskom’s 100 MW Sere wind farm. 9 Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis Weekly contribution from utility-scale RE in first 3 months of 2019 ranges from 4.1-6.9% of total system demand

Electricity production in GWh/week 450 % of total 400 6.9% system load

6.1% Capacity 5.9% 350 5.6% operational 5.8%

4.5% 300 5.7% 1479 MW 4.9% 4.8% 5.2% 2078 MW 250 4.1% 4.5% 500 MW 200 Supply Sources 150 CSP 100 Solar PV Wind 50

0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. 10 Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis Weekly electricity production wind, solar PV, CSP, residual load and loadshedding in Q1-2019

Electricity production in GWh/week 5 000

4 500 Capacity 4 000 operational

3 500 1479 MW

3 000 2078 MW 500 MW 2 500 Supply 2 000 Sources Loadshedding 1 500 CSP 1 000 Solar PV Wind 500 Residual Load 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

Note: Week 1 only 6 of 7 days; Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Pumping load excluded. 11 Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis For Jan-Mar 2019, electricity production from wind, solar PV and CSP was above 25 GWh/d 90% of the time with maximum of 48 GWh/d

Electricity production in GWh/day 50 Capacity 45 operational (end of month) 40 1479 MW 35 2078 MW

30 400 MW

20 Supply Sources 15 Solar PV Wind 10 CSP 5

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE.Wind includes Eskom‘s Sere wind plant. 12 Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis Daily electricity production of between 543-666 GWh in Jan 2019 with VRE contributing 5-8%

GWh/day 800 Capacity 700 operational (end of month)

600 1479 MW 2078 MW 500 400 MW

400 Supply Sources 300 Loadshedding Solar PV 200 Wind CSP 100 Residual Load 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production excludes pumping load. Wind includes Sere. 13 Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis Daily electricity production of between 593-672 GWh/d in Feb 2019, VRE supplied 3-6% of system demand and up to 7% of load was shed

GWh/day 800 Capacity 700 operational (end of month)

600 1479 MW 2078 MW 500 500 MW

400 Supply Sources 300 Loadshedding Solar PV 200 Wind CSP 100 Residual Load 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production excludes pumping load. Wind includes Sere. 14 Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis Daily electricity production of 538-658 GWh/d in Mar 2019, VRE contributed 3-7% everyday and up to 14% of load was shed

GWh/day 800 Capacity 700 operational (end of month)

600 1479 MW 2078 MW 500 500 MW

400 Supply Sources 300 Loadshedding Solar PV 200 Wind CSP 100 Residual Load 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production excludes pumping load. Wind includes Sere. 15 Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis Hourly VRE production in Jan 2019 shows periodic solar PV and CSP; wind varies but contributes notably during evening peaks

GW 4.0 Capacity 3.5 operational (end of month) 1479 MW 3.0 2078 MW 2.5 400 MW

2.0 Supply Sources 1.5 Solar PV Wind 1.0 CSP

0.5

0.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Pumping load excluded. 16 Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis Hourly VRE electricity production in Feb 2019 shows how loadshedding could have increased to Stage 5-6 without VRE

GW 4.0 Capacity 3.5 operational (end of month) 1479 MW 3.0 2078 MW 2.5 500 MW

2.0 Supply Sources 1.5 Solar PV Wind 1.0 CSP

0.5

0.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Loadshedding stage 4 3 2 1 Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Pumping load excluded. 17 Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis Hourly VRE electricity production in Mar 2019 shows again how loadshedding could have increased to Stage 5-6 without VRE

GW 4.0 Capacity 3.5 operational (end of month) 1479 MW 3.0 2078 MW 2.5 500 MW

2.0 Supply Sources 1.5 Solar PV Wind 1.0 CSP

0.5

0.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Loadshedding stage 4 3 2 1 Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Pumping load excluded. 18 Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis Hourly electricity production in Jan 2019 highlighting role of VRE fleet

GW 40 Capacity 35 operational (end of month) 1479 MW 30 2078 MW 25 400 MW

20 Supply Sources 15 Loadshedding Solar PV 10 Wind CSP 5 Residual Load 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Pumping load excluded. 19 Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis Hourly electricity production in Feb 2019 with 5 days of loadshedding

GW 40 5 days of Capacity loadshedding 35 operational (end of month) 1479 MW 30 2078 MW 25 500 MW

20 Supply Sources 15 Loadshedding Solar PV 10 Wind CSP 5 Residual Load 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Pumping load excluded. 20 Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis Hourly electricity production in Mar 2019 with 10 days of loadshedding

GW 40 10 days of Capacity loadshedding 35 operational (end of month) 1479 MW 30 2078 MW 25 500 MW

20 Supply Sources 15 Loadshedding Solar PV 10 Wind CSP 5 Residual Load 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Pumping load excluded. 21 Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis Significant contribution from VRE during loadshedding in Feb 2019 – 103 GWh and a maximum inst. contribution of 2.0 GW

Power in GW Week of 11-17 February 2019 36 34 Capacity 32 operational 30 (end of month) 28 1479 MW 26 2078 MW 24 500 MW 22 20 18 16 System demand 14 Supply Sources 12 Loadshedding 10 PV 8 Wind 6 CSP 4 Residual (Eskom) 2 0 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday

22 Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis Similarly, VRE provided valuable capacity during loadshedding in March 2019 – 254 GWh and a maximum inst. contribution of 2.3 GW

Power in GW Week of 18-24 March 2019 36 34 Capacity 32 operational 30 (end of month) 28 1479 MW 26 2078 MW 24 500 MW 22 20 18 16 System demand 14 Supply Sources 12 Loadshedding 10 PV 8 Wind 6 CSP 4 Residual (Eskom) 2 0 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday

23 Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis VRE reduced peak by 1.1 GW & high demand hours notably; loadshedding could have increased by as much as 46% without VRE

Power in GW LDC (1 Jan – 31 Mar 2019) 40 38 36 34 1 32 30 -1.1 GW 28 26 2 2 24 22 20 18 1 2 System demand 16 With VRE fleet, peak demand was But more importantly, high demand (before loadshedding) 14 reduced by 1.1 GW. hours1 were reduced from 730 hrs to System demand 12 144 hrs. (after loadshedding) 10 Residual demand 357 GWh of 2975 GWh from VRE was during loadshedding between Jan-Mar 2019. 8 (after VRE & loadshedding) 6 Without VRE, loadshedding would have been more severe, it could have increased by 46% from 4 769 GWh to 1126 GWh. 2 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 LDC = Load Duration Curve; 1 When demand is >90% of peak demand; VRE = variable renewable energy (solar PV, wind and CSP) Hours of the year (sorted) 24 Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis Thank you