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1 ` Ctf Private Sector Proposal Sustainable CTF PRIVATE SECTOR PROPOSAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY GENERATION COMPONENT A JOINT SUBMISSION FROM IFC & AfDB Name of Project or Program South Africa Sustainable Energy Acceleration Program (the “Program”) CTF amount requested (US$): Investment – up to US$83.0 million equivalent (US$41.5 million for IFC’s account, US$41.5 million for AfDB’s account) Advisory services grant – up to US$1.0 million (US$500,000 for IFC’s account, US$500,000 for AfDB’s account) Implementation and supervision budget – US$1.0 million (US$500,000 for IFC’s account, US$500,000 for AfDB’s account) Country targeted Republic of South Africa Indicate if proposal is a Project Program or Program DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF PROGRAM Proposal Context: This programmatic proposal is one of three joint IFC/AfDB Private Sector Proposals for South Africa under South Africa’s Country Investment Plan (CIP) which was endorsed by the CTF Trust Fund Committee on October 27, 2009 and allocated up to US$150 million for flexible implementation to the private sector. The three proposals allocate these funds in equal amounts between energy efficiency, solar water heaters and renewable energy. This proposal addresses use of CTF funds to support private sector megawatt scale sustainable energy (SE) projects, including cogeneration energy efficiency (EE) projects and wind and solar renewable energy (RE) projects. More specifically the program seeks to encourage transformation of the private SE sector by establishing a series of direct, project level interventions in the wind, solar and cogeneration sectors, all of which are nascent but offer significant potential in South Africa . This proposed Program (“The Program”) addresses use of CTF funds of up to US$83 million for investments and US$1 million for Advisory Services. These initial investments will help to demonstrate that private sector participation in the power sector, and more particularly the SE power sector, can be successful in the South African context (thereby helping to reduce risk for future investors) while also addressing some of the early entrant barriers related to establishing precedents and reducing costs. The Program is consistent with the policies of the Government of South Africa (GoSA) and will directly support the GoSA’s specific goals of generating 4% of the country’s electricity requirements (about 10,000 GWh) from RE by 2013. South Africa’s CIP identifies large scale SE as a key strategic area for application of CTF resources in both the public and private sectors. Further programmatic proposals which target support to solar water heaters, and energy efficiency investment via local financial institutions or otherwise are also being submitted jointly by IFC & AfDB. Country and Sector Context: South Africa is the largest contributor to GHG emissions in Africa. In 2000, emissions were 415 million tons th of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO 2e), placing South Africa as the 11 largest emitter globally. The country’s emissions per capita are about 10 tons of CO 2/person, the eighth highest in the world. The energy sector is the single largest source of CO 2 emissions, accounting for more than 70 percent of the total. This is mainly because of South Africa’s heavy reliance on coal to meet its primary energy needs (75% of total energy 17/09/2010 1 ` consumption and 93% of power generation was from coal in 2004). The GoSA is a leading voice in the developing world on climate change issues. It has committed to doing its part to stabilize global temperatures at 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, as recommended by scientific consensus. Recognizing South Africa’s development needs, the climate change mitigation strategy the Government has adopted envisages an increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the short term, stabilized emissions by 2020-2025, followed by an emissions decline in absolute terms by mid-century. The private sector is generally well developed in South Africa but its participation in the energy sector, and in particular in power generation, has been limited by the dominance of the state-owned utility, Eskom, and by a number of other financial, institutional, and technical barriers. As part of the government’s efforts to address climate change the regulator, National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA), recently approved the Renewable Energy-Feed-in Tariff (REFIT) regime, in which a single buyer is required to purchase capped capacity amounts of renewable energy at set prices from independent power producers (IPPs). More recently, NERSA announced end-user tariff increases over the next three years which will start to close the gap between the cost of SE and end-user tariffs. Meanwhile the supply/demand balance continues to deteriorate and a Power Conservation Program is expected to be initiated which will constrain electrical consumption by large industrials in the near-term. Barriers to Private Sector Development: While the regulatory changes described above have the potential to unlock significant private sector engagement in the medium to long term, there remain short-term impediments to private sector-led SE project development which could stall progress and which will particularly affect pioneer projects. These barriers include clarification and creation of a single buyer, allocation of the capped capacity approved under REFIT, and grid extension and upgrades to handle the new capacity. The GoSA has made a clear commitment to resolve these final hurdles in its finalization of the REFIT program and is progressing accordingly, but for pioneer developers of SE projects the timeline for clarification and implementation of a normalized and proven system for IPPs remains unclear. Depending on the ultimate speed of regulatory progress, private sector investment faces the following challenges: Given that the REFIT program is yet to be currently available and given that the RE capacity supported under this program will face some caps, what can be done in advance of and in addition to the REFIT program to fast-track sustainable energy development in RSA? With end-user power tariffs increasing by almost 100% over the next three years and the prospect of power shortages once the economy returns to growth, many commercial and industrial consumers would like to develop their own SE power projects but in many cases this depends on clarification of their ability to “wheel” electricity through Eskom’s grid and their ability to off-set such “self-generation” against any future Power Conservation Program (PCP) targets that may be imposed. Once REFIT is in place, pioneer projects will face additional first-mover costs and risks that may make what appear to be adequate feed-in tariffs for long-term growth insufficient for these initial projects . How can these first projects be supported to pave the way for subsequent projects that will have lower costs and face lower risks? The first round of projects to be developed under REFIT will face increased costs and risks that will not be faced by subsequent projects. These will include negotiating and setting contractual and risk mitigation precedents, attracting international equipment suppliers into the South African market for the first time, and building advisory, development and financing capacity and experience. 17/09/2010 2 ` Program Summary: The Program represents an IFC & AfDB joint initiative to accelerate private sector participation in SE generation in South Africa by addressing the barriers described above. It will target and apply CTF funds to support pioneer private sector SE projects and will address existing market barriers together with advisory services to catalyze market transformation. The Program specifically seeks to shorten the time it takes for South Africa to build a track record of private SE projects by: i) enabling some pioneer projects to proceed in advance of the completion of the REFIT regulations; and ii) supporting the pioneer projects that proceed under REFIT once the regulatory situation is finalized. This will pave the way for more rapid scale-up of SE IPPs and the creation of a sustainable SE sector in South Africa. Further, given that the REFIT program envisages caps to the capacity of SE that it will support (which is sensible fiscal management - similar caps are applied to feed-in tariffs in many developed countries), the Program will ultimately enable a greater capacity of SE to be developed in South Africa in the medium term than would be possible with REFIT alone. Given the dynamic environment, both with regard to the evolution of the regulatory environment and with regard to development readiness of different private sector projects, the Program will seek to retain flexibility (in terms of approach, project selection, and application and structuring of CTF funds) in structuring the best way to accelerate the implementation of pioneer SE projects. The financial instruments, their pricing and terms of the CTF funds offered to private sector projects will be tailored on a project by project basis to address the barriers identified for each project. IFC and AfDB will seek to provide the minimum concessionality necessary to enable projects to proceed. In advance of completion of the REFIT process the Program will focus on enabling pioneer projects to be developed for “captive” or “self-generation” use by industrial off-takers. These initial projects will set a precedent for a new model of private sector investment in the South African SE power market (industrial self-supply) and will build SE sector capacity
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