The Location of MH370 Dr. Bobby Ulich Executive Summary
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The Location of MH370 Dr. Bobby Ulich B.S.E.E., M.S.E.E., Ph.D. Astronomy / E.E. Bandera, Texas, USA [email protected] 001-830-522-0839 September 25, 2014 Dr. Bobby Ulich The Location of MH370 2 The Location of MH370 Dr. Bobby Ulich Executive Summary This white paper demonstrates the precise location of MH370's route after radar contact was lost, including its impact point at the 7th handshake arc. Flight routes that were previously considered possibilities are excluded by applying a restriction on the allowable variation in true air speed. Additional restrictions, based on average true air speed and on the time of the final turn, allow the identification of the final selected waypoint and result in a determination of the 7th arc crossing with an uncertainty of less than 15 nautical miles. I developed a computer-based model to generate, evaluate, and optimize flight routes. This model includes high-altitude wind speed, wind direction, and magnetic declination as functions of aircraft location. By evaluating all possible lateral navigation modes over the full range of plausible flight directions, I identified the unique route that is consistent with the satellite BTO and BFO data and with the additional constraints on true air speed and turn time based on the radar track and the satellite data. The identified MH370 route is a great circle passing directly over Maimun Saleh Airport on Weh Island. A route passing directly over Maimun Saleh Airport is the route flown by the MH370 flight crew (after radar contact is lost) for the following reasons: 1. it goes to a plausible, nearby destination (the nearest airport), 2. it is a great circle route flown using the Flight Management System (the normal method), 3. it is an extremely simple route, requiring only one turn and no speed changes, 4. it matches the handshake arcs derived from the BTO data very well (< 1.5 NM RMS error), 5. it has extremely steady true air speed as expected 1 knot variability), 6. it matches the average true air speed derived from the radar track after diversion (within 1 %), 7. it matches the BFO data for the entire flight (~ 5 Hz residual RMS error), and 8. it matches the southward turn completion time derived from the BFO data at 18:28:46 UTC (within 20 seconds). The MH370 impact point is the 7th handshake arc crossing at (40.24S, 83.53E). No route flyable on autopilot with very steady air speed ends within the current ATSB Priority Search Area. The MH370 impact zone is located 900 nautical miles southwest of the center of the current ATSB Priority Search Area. Based on the results of this analysis, I recommend a new search zone (32 NM long by 20 NM wide) that covers the 00:19 UTC handshake arc from 83.2-83.8 degrees east longitude and has an area of 2,200 km2. Dr. Bobby Ulich The Location of MH370 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................... 6 1.1 PURPOSE .............................................................................................................................................................. 6 1.2 BASIS OF ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................................................. 6 1.3 NEW ANALYSIS METHOD ......................................................................................................................................... 6 1.4 FINDING ............................................................................................................................................................... 7 2 MODEL ASSUMPTIONS ........................................................................................................................................ 7 2.1 NUMBER OF TURNS ................................................................................................................................................ 7 2.2 LIST OF ASSUMPTIONS ............................................................................................................................................ 7 3 IMPLICATIONS OF ASSUMPTIONS ....................................................................................................................... 8 3.1 SATELLITE DATA ..................................................................................................................................................... 8 3.2 MILITARY RADAR DATA ........................................................................................................................................... 8 3.3 OTHER ASSUMPTIONS ............................................................................................................................................. 8 3.4 ENGINE THRUST CONTROL ....................................................................................................................................... 8 3.4.1 Manual Throttle ............................................................................................................................................ 8 3.4.2 Auto-Throttle ................................................................................................................................................ 8 3.5 AIR SPEED CONTROL ............................................................................................................................................... 9 4 FLIGHT ROUTE MODEL ........................................................................................................................................ 9 4.1 EXCEL MODEL ...................................................................................................................................................... 9 4.2 WIND ................................................................................................................................................................ 10 4.3 MAGNETIC DECLINATION....................................................................................................................................... 11 4.4 TURN MODEL...................................................................................................................................................... 12 4.5 EARTH MODEL .................................................................................................................................................... 12 4.6 ROUTE FITTING METHODS ..................................................................................................................................... 12 4.6.1 Nonlinear Solver.......................................................................................................................................... 12 4.6.2 Lateral Navigation Modes .......................................................................................................................... 13 4.6.2.1 True Track ........................................................................................................................................................... 13 4.6.2.2 Magnetic Track .................................................................................................................................................... 14 4.6.2.3 True Heading ....................................................................................................................................................... 14 4.6.2.4 Magnetic Heading ............................................................................................................................................... 14 4.6.2.5 Great Circle ......................................................................................................................................................... 14 4.6.2.6 Maimun Saleh Airport ......................................................................................................................................... 15 5 SUMMARY OF ALL ROUTE FITTING RESULTS ..................................................................................................... 16 5.1 BEST FIT ROUTES ................................................................................................................................................. 16 5.2 TRUE AIR SPEED VARIATION ................................................................................................................................... 18 5.3 AVERAGE TRUE AIR SPEED ..................................................................................................................................... 19 5.3.1 Pre-Diversion True Air Speed ...................................................................................................................... 20 5.3.2 Complete Radar Track Analysis................................................................................................................... 20 5.3.2.1 KLIA ..................................................................................................................................................................... 21 5.3.2.2 Last ACARS Data .................................................................................................................................................. 21 5.3.2.3 Arrive IGARI ......................................................................................................................................................... 21 5.3.2.4 Last Secondary Radar Data .................................................................................................................................