WEEKLY MARKET WATCH SIC-FSL INVESTMENT RESEARCH| MARKET REVIEWS|

5th March, 2014

SIC FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITED|ADVISORY|FUND MANAGEMENT|STOCK BROKERAGE|INVESTMENT RESEARCH

STOCK MARKET BOURSE REVERSES TREND

Appreciations in the , bank, consumer goods and INDICATORS WEEK OPEN WEEK END CHANGE sectors last week proved sufficient to reverse last month’s declining performance of the Ghanaian Stock Market Capitalization (GH¢ 'million) 59,286.99 58,450.11 -1.41% Exchange (GSE). Market Capitalization (US$' million) 23,548.08 23,118.34 -1.82%

Volume traded (shares) 931,734.00 2,717,115.00 191.62% Key performance indicators pointed north, following the advantage gainers had in magnitude over laggards. The Value Traded (GH¢) 2,752,403.38 6,061,845.67 120.24% GSE Composite index increased to 2,420.62 points, from Value Traded (US$) 1,093,221.34 2,397,597.46 119.31% the previous week’s level of 2,416.96 points, representing Table 1: Market Summary a year-to-date change of 12.84%. The SIC-FSL Top 15

Index (SIC-FSL T-15) which tracks the performance of the INDEX ANALYSIS top 15 liquid equities also went up by 0.51% on the back of price appreciations in Ecobank Transnational INDICATORS Closing Week YTD Incorporated (ETI), Fan Milk Limited (FML), SIC Insurance Level Change CHANGE Company Limited (SIC) and Total Petroleum Ghana Limited (TOTAL). GSE Composite Index 2,420.62 0.15% 12.84%

SIC-FSL Top 15 Index 3,937.61 0.51% 13.61% However, the Financial Stocks Index (FSI) slipped by 0.47% to close at an annual yield of 20.52% over the GSE Financial Stocks Index 2,153.28 -0.47% 20.52% week. Table 2: Key Stock Market Indices

25.00% LIQUIDITY

20.00% In spite of the limited number of trading days last week, total 15.00% shares traded were still better than the previous week’s level.

A total of 2.72 million shares exchanged hands; and this was 10.00% valued at GH¢6.06 million. 5.00% In all, 24 out of 36 listed equities were active over the period,

0.00%

with the financial sector contributing 94.26% of the shares

14

14 14 14 14 14

14

14 14 14 14 14 14

14 14

-

- - - - -

-

------

- -

Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan

traded. Cal Bank Limited (CAL) emerged as the most traded Jan

Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb

Feb

------

Mar

- - - - -

-

-

2 7

5

3

10 15 20 23 28 31

13 18 21 26 stock, accounting for 40.14% of the shares that traded. 10

GSE YTD Change GSE-FSI YTD SIC-FSL 15 YTD Change

Fig 1: Year-to-date returns

MARKET MOVERS

STOCK Wk Open Wk End Change % SIC leads gainers again TICKER change

SIC Insurance Company Limited (SIC) recorded the biggest gain last ETI 0.21 0.22 0.01 4.76% week when the share price of the state-owned insurance shot up by FML 7.32 7.40 0.08 1.09% 11.63% to close the week at GH¢0.48 per share. Though, the company is yet to released its full-year 2013 financial results, SIC 0.43 0.48 0.05 11.63% investors seems to have taken keen interest in SIC’s shares due to the TOTAL 5.26 5.32 0.06 1.14% prospects they envisage in the company. Table 3: Gainers for the week That notwithstanding, the stock is still trading at 38% above its Book Value Per Share (BVPS). STOCK Wk Open Wk End Change % SCB falls on inference TICKER change

The higher-priced equity “Standard Chartered Bank (SCB)” fell from BOPP 3.28 3.15 -0.13 -3.96% its opening price of GH¢20.55 to GH¢20.50 per share last week. CAL 0.97 0.89 -0.08 -8.25% The fall has been attributed to the poor 2013 financial report on StanChart London last week on the London Stock Exchange (LSE). EBG 7.96 7.90 -0.06 -0.75%

This, according to most analysts, inspired investors to resort to profit- EGL 2.49 2.48 -0.01 -0.40% taking in the blue-chip stock on the Ghanaian stock market. GGBL 6.00 5.98 -0.02 -0.33% StanChart (Ghana) reported GH¢208 million profit in 2013 compared to the GH¢136 million profit the year before. Revenue GOIL 0.83 0.76 -0.07 -8.43% also grew by 54% in 2013 over the preceding year. MLC 0.39 0.38 -0.01 -2.56% CORPORATE NEWS SCB 20.55 20.50 -0.05 -0.24%

SOCIETE GENERALE GHANA (SOGEGH) ANNOUNCES DIVIDEND SOGEGH 1.17 1.13 -0.04 -3.42% PAYMENT: SOGEGH has proposed a dividend payment of GH¢0.06 per share share for the year 2013 to investors. The payment, will be subject TBL 0.26 0.25 -0.01 -3.85% to shareholder’s approval in an upcoming Annual General Meeting TLW 31.00 30.00 -1 -3.23% (AGM) to be held on Monday, March 31, 2014 at the Accra International Conference Centre at 11:00 am. UTB 0.49 0.48 -0.01 -2.04% Table 4: Laggards for the week In view of the above, any investor who will purchase SOGEGH shares before Tuesday, March 25, 2014 will be entitled to the dividend payment. The payment date is Thursday, May 15, 2014.

AYRTON DRUGS MANUFACTURING LIMITED (AYRTN) APPOINTS NEW DIRECTOR: Management of Ayrton Drugs Limited has appointed Mr. Suriyapperuma Arachichige Punnyasena as a Director of the company. His appointment took effect from 25th February, 2014.

ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL INCORPORATED (ETI) PASSES GOVERNANCE ACTION PLAN: ETI has passed an action plan proposed by the Board of Directors to address the specific governance gaps Fig 2: Top 5 most liquid equities with respect to volume traded observed in the company’s structure, in compliance to the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) of Nigeria’s directicve during the recent extraordinary general meeting held in Lome. At the meeting, institutional CAL, 40.14% GCB, 36.92% shareholders retained the current 12 person Board of Directors of the Bank.

A resolution was also reached at the meeting, to amend the company’s Article of Association. Under the current Article of Association, ETI shall not undertake any acquisition, merger or disposal of the company’s assets worth over 20% of the company’s book value without the approval of a simple majority of the shareholders present in General Meeting. Others, 6.38% ETI, 9.08% SOGEGH, 3.45% GOIL, 4.03%

Stock Ticker Year Opening Closing Price @ YTD Gain/Loss (%) Price(GH¢) 5/03/2014 (GH¢) African Champion Industries Ltd. ACI 0.06 0.06 0.00% AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. AGA 37.00 37.00 0.00% Aluworks Limited ALW 0.05 0.05 0.00% Ayrton Drug Manufacturing Ltd. AYRTN 0.17 0.17 0.00% Benso Oil Palm Plantation BOPP 3.21 3.15 -1.87% Cal Bank Ltd CAL 0.97 0.89 -8.25% Clydestone (Ghana) Ltd. CLYD 0.04 0.04 0.00% Camelot Ghana Ltd. CMLT 0.16 0.16 0.00% Cocoa Processing Co. Ltd. CPC 0.02 0.02 0.00% Ltd. EBG 5.61 7.90 40.82% Limited EGL 1.88 2.48 31.91% Ecobank Transnational Inc. ETI 0.19 0.22 15.79% Fan Milk Ltd. FML 6.62 7.40 11.78% Ghana Commercial Bank Ltd. GCB 4.85 4.10 -15.46% Guinness Ghana Breweries Ltd. GGBL 6.20 5.98 -3.55% Ghana Oil Company Limited GOIL 0.89 0.76 -14.61% Golden Star Resources Ltd. GSR 2.75 2.75 0.00% Golden Web Ltd. GWEB 0.04 0.04 0.00% HFC Bank (Ghana) Ltd. HFC 0.96 1.10 14.58% Mechanical Lloyd Co. Ltd. MLC 0.38 0.38 0.00% Pioneer Kitchenware Ltd. PKL 0.06 0.06 0.00% Produce Buying Company Ltd. PBC 0.17 0.17 0.00% PZ Cussons Ghana Ltd. PZ 0.79 0.66 -16.46% Standard Chartered Bank (GH) Ltd.* SCB 14.94 20.50 37.22% SIC Insurance Company Ltd. SIC 0.39 0.48 23.08% Ltd. SPL 0.04 0.04 0.00% Limited SOGEGH 0.75 1.13 50.67% Sam Woode Ltd. SWL 0.03 0.03 0.00% Trust Bank Ltd. (The Gambia) TBL 0.35 0.25 -28.57% Total Petroleum Ghana Ltd. TOTAL 5.06 5.32 5.14% Transaction Solutions (Ghana) Ltd. TRANSOL 0.03 0.03 0.00% Tullow Oil Plc TLW 34.98 30.00 -14.24% Unilever Ghana Ltd. UNIL 18.31 18.10 -1.15% UT Bank UTB 0.45 0.48 6.67% AngloGold Ashanti Depository Shares AADS 0.52 0.52 0.00% Standard Chartered Bank Preference shares SCB PREF 0.52 0.52 0.00% NewGold Exchange Traded Fund GLD 26.13 23.00 -11.98%

CEDI PLUMMETS FOLLOWING THE NEGATIVE CURRENCY MARKET DATA ON GOLD Ghana’s currency waned further on the inter-bank market last EXCHANGE RATES BUYING SELLING YTD week, following a report on a slump in gold output for the year CHANGE 2013. USDGHS 2.5270 2.5295 16.69%▼ The country’s gold production declined by 5% to 4.12 million ounces last year as the metal’s price dropped by 28%, GBPGHS 4.2123 4.2179 17.98%▼ signifying the first annual fall in 13 years. The value of gold produced in 2013 was US$5.8billion, compared to EURGHS 3.4723 3.4761 16.34%▼ US$6.5billion recorded in 2012, when output jumped by 17 percent.

Table 6: Inter-bank indicative rates This saw the value of the local currency slip down by 0.63% against its major trading partners. Also, the yield on the Cedi

▲ year-to-date appreciation stood at 14.43% since the year commenced. ▼ year-to-date depreciation

Dollar verses Cedi

News on the likelihood of the Government missing its inflation 20.00% target this year, saw investors cling on to the Dollar as a safer hedge. 15.00%

The Bank of Ghana (BoG) last week hinted that the country’s 10.00% inflation rate for this year may rise above the Government’s target of 9.5%, following the slower than anticipated fiscal consolidation and the continued utility and petroleum price 5.00% adjustments in the country.

0.00% The Dollar recorded another successive win against the Cedi after trading at GH¢2.53 per Dollar on the wholesale market 2 7 10 15 20 23 28 31 5 10 13 18 21 26 3 EURGHS USDGHS GBPGHS last week. The USDGHS exchange rate gained 0.42% leading to Jan Feb Mar a 16.96% decline in the yield of the Cedi since year open. Fig 3: YTD performance of Pound, Dollar & Euro versus the Cedi

Pound mixed amid BoE’s decision Euro gains amid positive economic data

The Pound depreciated against most of its major peers on the The Euro took a positive stance on the global front last week. international market, as the Bank of England (BoE) kept interest The rally was due to information that Euro-area services growth, rates at a record low of 0.5% and held their bond-purchase which beat economists’ forecasts, triggered an international stimulus target at £375 billion ($628 billion). demand for the Euro. The services index for the month of February rose to a 32-month high of 52.6 points, exceeding the Investors on the Ghanaian market were not perturbed about this provisional reading of 51.7 points. move as they maintained their confidence in the British Pound. The Sterling gained on the inter-bank market following the 17.98% Locally, the Euro climbed 1.00% against the Cedi on the return it sustained against the Cedi after trading at an average interbank market as it was bought at GH¢3.4723 and sold for GH¢4.22. GH¢3.4761 last week.

Isaac Kwasi Mensah (Analyst) Alice Osei Okrah (Head) Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]

NB: The data in this report is Thursday on Thursday (w-o-w)