WEEKLY MARKET WATCH SIC-FSL INVESTMENT RESEARCH| MARKET REVIEWS|

9th January, 2014

SIC FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITED|ADVISORY|FUND MANAGEMENT|STOCK BROKERAGE|INVESTMENT RESEARCH

STOCK MARKET GSE MAINTAINS LEAD ROLE 2014 expectedly begun the year on a good-note as the

INDICATORS WEEK OPEN WEEK END CHANGE (GSE) carried its last year’s bullish sentiment into the New Year. Equities from the

Market Capitalization (GH¢ 'million) 61,158.29 62,137.86 1.60% Banking, Consumer goods and Pharmaceutical sectors, rallied support for the week’s sterling performance. Market Capitalization (US$' million) 27,668.43 27,619.28 -0.18% The Ghana Stock Exchange closed the year as the best Volume traded (shares) 660,906.00 3,348,617.00 406.67% performing stock market on the African continent in Value Traded (GH¢) 982,386.87 4,707,744.14 379.21% dollar terms last year. It was however second to the Value Traded (US$) 444,438.50 2,092,516.73 370.82% Malawi Stock Exchange in terms of the local currency Table 1: Market Summary (). The Accra Bourse retuned 56.14% and 78.81% profit respectively to investors in dollar and INDEX ANALYSIS Cedi terms. The Malawi Stock Exchange on the other hand returned 56.08% and 108% growth to investors. INDICATORS Closing Week YTD Level Change CHANGE Key benchmark indices edged higher, as the GSE-CI recorded 45.66 points increase over its opening level of GSE Composite Index 2,190.86 2.13% 2.13% 2,145.20 points, to settle at a yield of 2.13%. The SIC- SIC-FSL Top 15 Index 3,709.80 7.35% 7.35% FSL Top 15 Index posted the highest returns on the market by closing at 3,709.80 points with a return of GSE Financial Stocks Index 1,853.09 3.72% 3.72% 7.35%, giving credence to liquid stocks. The GSE Table 2: Key Stock Market Indices Composite index also settled at 1,853.09 points to close at a gain of 3.72%.

LIQUIDITY 8.00% Intense appetite for stocks accounted for the 3.4 million shares 7.00%

that exchanged hands over the period and this was valued at 6.00% GH¢4.71 million. Cal Bank Limited (CAL) was the most traded equity, with a 70.6% contribution of the total shares traded last 5.00% week. Subsequently, CAL emerged the most valuable stock within 4.00%

the week under consideration. 3.00%

On the whole, twenty-three (23) out of the thirty-four listed 2.00% companies were active on the market as financial stocks were fully 1.00%

active on the week, except the Trust Bank Limited (TBL) of 0.00% Gambia. 2-Jan-13 3-Jan-13 4-Jan-13 7-Jan-13 8-Jan-13 9-Jan-13

GSE YTD Change GSE-FSI YTD SIC-FSL 15 YTD Change Fig 1: Year-to-date returns

MARKET MOVERS STOCK Wk Open Wk End Change % TICKER change

ETI tops gainers list AYRTN 0.17 0.18 0.01 5.88%

EBG 5.61 5.69 0.08 1.43% Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI) saw its stock price jump up by 31.58% as investors repose confidence in the ETI 0.19 0.25 0.06 31.58% Banking stock by increasing their bets on the company’s stake. FML 6.62 6.63 0.01 0.15% Investors are very optimistic about the yet-to-be released full GCB 4.85 4.90 0.05 1.03% year financial statement of the company following the impressive earnings released in the third quarter of 2013. The SCB 14.94 14.99 0.05 0.33% expectant investors seem to have been the key drivers of the Table 3: Gainers for the week company’s share price on the stock market.

ETI ended last week’s trading session as the best performing stock after closing at GH¢0.25 per share from a year-open price of GH¢0.19 per share last Thursday. STOCK Wk Open Wk End Change % TICKER change HFC 0.96 0.95 -0.01 -1.04%

Investors bid up AYRTN’s share price despite…. TOTAL 5.06 5.03 -0.03 -0.59%

The pharmaceutical company, Ayrton Drugs Manufacturing UNIL 18.31 18.10 -0.21 -1.15% Limited (AYRT N) saw its share price shot-up by 5.9% last UTB 0.45 0.44 -0.01 -2.22%

Thursday regardless of the company’s fall in profit in 2013 Table 4: Laggards for the week over the comparative year in 2012.

The company suffered a huge profit declined of 86%, after reporting a profit-after-tax of GH¢340,806 in 2013 from the GH¢2.48 million in 2012.

The fall in profit can be attributed to the huge drop in other CAL, 70.60% income and high administrative expenses incurred last year.

The share price of Ayrton settled at GH¢0.18 from an opening price of GH¢0.17 per share.

ETI, 9.80% Profit-taking drags UTB down Others, 7.47% Contrary to market sentiment, shareholders of UT Bank (UTB) EBG, 5.15% sold some of their holdings to take-out some margins on their UTB, 2.24% GCB, 4.75% investment. Fig 2: Top 5 most liquid equities with respect to volume traded This gave bidders the power to beat-down the company’s market value by 2.22% last week, as the stock closed trading at GH¢0.44 per share.

Stock Ticker Year Opening Closing Price @ YTD Gain/Loss (%) Price(GH¢) 9/01/2014 (GH¢) African Champion Industries Ltd. ACI 0.06 0.06 0.00% AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. AGA 37.00 37.00 0.00% Aluworks Limited ALW 0.05 0.05 0.00% Ayrton Drug Manufacturing Ltd. AYRTN 0.17 0.18 5.88% Benso Oil Palm Plantation BOPP 3.21 3.21 0.00% Cal Bank Ltd CAL 0.97 0.98 0.00% Clydestone (Ghana) Ltd. CLYD 0.04 0.04 0.00% Camelot Ghana Ltd. CMLT 0.16 0.16 0.00% Cocoa Processing Co. Ltd. CPC 0.02 0.02 0.00% Ltd. EBG 5.61 5.60 1.43% Limited EGL 1.88 1.88 0.00% Ecobank Transnational Inc. ETI 0.19 0.18 31.58% Fan Milk Ltd. FML 6.62 6.60 0.15% Ghana Commercial Bank Ltd. GCB 4.85 4.90 1.03% Guinness Ghana Breweries Ltd. GGBL 6.20 6.11 0.00% Ghana Oil Company Limited GOIL 0.89 0.89 0.00% Golden Star Resources Ltd. GSR 2.75 2.75 0.00% Golden Web Ltd. GWEB 0.04 0.04 0.00% HFC Bank (Ghana) Ltd. HFC 0.96 0.96 -1.04% Mechanical Lloyd Co. Ltd. MLC 0.38 0.38 0.00% Pioneer Kitchenware Ltd. PKL 0.06 0.06 0.00% Produce Buying Company Ltd. PBC 0.17 0.17 0.00% PZ Cussons Ghana Ltd. PZ 0.79 0.79 0.00% Standard Chartered Bank (GH) Ltd.* SCB 14.94 14.92 0.33% SIC Insurance Company Ltd. SIC 0.39 0.39 0.00% Ltd. SPL 0.04 0.03 0.00% Limited SOGEGH 0.75 0.75 0.00% Sam Woode Ltd. SWL 0.03 0.03 0.00% Trust Bank Ltd. (The Gambia) TBL 0.35 0.35 0.00% Total Petroleum Ghana Ltd. TOTAL 5.06 5.02 -0.59% Transaction Solutions (Ghana) Ltd. TRANSOL 0.03 0.03 0.00% Tullow Oil Plc TLW 34.98 34.98 0.00% Unilever Ghana Ltd. UNIL 18.31 18.29 -1.15% UT Bank UTB 0.45 0.44 -2.22% AngloGold Ashanti Depository Shares AADS 0.52 0.52 0.00% Standard Chartered Bank Preference shares SCB PREF 0.52 0.52 0.00% NewGold Exchange Traded Fund GLD 26.13 26.13 0.00%

CEDI STARTS THE YEAR ON A POOR-NOTE CURRENCY MARKET The Ghanaian Cedi has still not recovered from its declining trend as economic factors underpinned its performance in the EXCHANGE RATES BUYING SELLING YTD wake of the year. The Cedi posted losses against the US CHANGE Dollar, Pound Sterling and the Euro last week. USDGHS 2.2485 2.2510 4.08%▼ The effect of increased importation in last year yuletide celebration appears to be the major cause of the Cedi’s early GBPGHS 3.7022 3.7072 3.70%▼ falls in this New Year. EURGHS 3.0601 3.0630 2.52%▼ Also, news on the decline in Ghana’s foreign direct investments (FDI) added to the woes of the local currency last week. Table 6: Inter-bank indicative rates According to data from Ghana Investment Promotion Center (GIPC), the country’s FDI for the first nine months in 2013

▲ year-to-date appreciation shrunk to US$3.24 billion from US$4.38 billion recorded for ▼ year-to-date depreciation the same period in 2012. This represented a decline of 26%.

The Cedi as a result slipped by 1.31% in its composite value Investors repose confidence in Dollar on the inter-bank market. Investors increased their betting in the Dollar last week despite reports that the Bank of Ghana (BoG) plans to raise about

GH¢12.7 billion through debt instrument within the first half of this 4.50% year. 4.00%

3.50% The Central Bank’s calendar has outlined a third seven year bond 3.00% in May to raise about GH¢300 million, one five-year bond in March and three-year bonds in February, April and June this 2.50% year. 2.00% 1.50%

The Dollar was however the biggest gainer last week as it traded 1.00% between GH¢2.2 and GH¢2.3. This represented a gain of 1.78% 0.50% and a year-to-date return of 4.08% against Cedi. 0.00% 2 3 6 7 8 9 Sterling soars above Cedi following positive data report EURGHS USDGHS GBPGHS Jan Sterling strengthened on the global front after the Bank of Fig 3: YTD performance of Pound, Dollar & Euro versus the Cedi England (BoE) kept its policy rate and asset-purchase target unchanged at 0.5% and £375 billion pounds respectively. In Economic confidence gives Euro a leg-up addition, the country’s trade deficit declined to £9.4 billion in November 2013 from £9.7 billion in October whiles trade An increase in Euro-area economic confidence for the month of surplus in services climbed to £6.2 billion leaving a total trade December saw the 17-nation currency bloc continue its gradual gap of 3.2 billion pounds, down from 3.5 billion pounds in recovery from a record-long recession. The confidence index October. rose to 100 from a revised 98.4 in November.

On the Ghanaian currency market also, the Sterling rose by This news gave a boost to the Euro on Ghana’s currency market 1.32% versus the Cedi as it climbed to a year to date return of last Thursday as the Euro traded between GH¢3.060 and 3.70%. The GBP/GHS was valued at GH¢3.70 from its previous GH¢3.063 to settle at a year-to-date gain of 2.52%. The Cedi exchange rate GH¢3.66 on the inter-bank market. to that effect lost 0.50% of its value to the Euro.

Alice Osei Okrah (Head) Isaac Kwasi Mensah (Analyst) Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]

NB: The data in this report is Thursday on Thursday (w-o-w)