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Country Report Cuba November 2018

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Country Report Cuba November 2018 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Country Report Cuba Generated on November 17th 2018 Economist Intelligence Unit 20 Cabot Square London E14 4QW United Kingdom _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For 60 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The Economist Intelligence Unit delivers its information in four ways: through its digital portfolio, where the latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 20 Cabot Square The Economist Group London 750 Third Avenue E14 4QW 5th Floor United Kingdom New York, NY 10017, US Tel: +44 (0) 20 7576 8181 Tel: +1 212 541 0500 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7576 8476 Fax: +1 212 586 0248 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Hong Kong Geneva The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 1301 Cityplaza Four Rue de l’Athénée 32 12 Taikoo Wan Road 1206 Geneva Taikoo Shing Switzerland Hong Kong Tel: +852 2585 3888 Tel: +41 22 566 24 70 Fax: +852 2802 7638 Fax: +41 22 346 93 47 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] This report can be accessed electronically as soon as it is published by visiting store.eiu.com or by contacting a local sales representative. The whole report may be viewed in PDF format, or can be navigated section-by-section by using the HTML links. In addition, the full archive of previous reports can be accessed in HTML or PDF format, and our search engine can be used to find content of interest quickly. Our automatic alerting service will send a notification via e-mail when new reports become available. Copyright © 2018 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author's and the publisher's ability. However, the Economist Intelligence Unit does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 2047-4598 Symbols for tables "0 or 0.0" means nil or negligible;"n/a" means not available; "-" means not applicable Cuba 1 Cuba Summary 2 Briefing sheet Outlook for 2019-23 4 Political stability 4 Election watch 5 International relations 5 Policy trends 6 Fiscal policy 6 Monetary policy 6 International assumptions 7 Economic growth 7 Inflation 8 Exchange rates 8 External sector 9 Forecast summary Data and charts 10 Annual data and forecast 11 Annual trends charts 12 Monthly trends charts 13 Comparative economic indicators Summary 13 Basic data 15 Political structure Recent analysis Politics 17 Forecast updates Economy 19 Forecast updates 20 Analysis Country Report November 2018 www.eiu.com © Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2018 Cuba 2 Briefing sheet Editor: Mark Keller Forecast Closing Date: November 8, 2018 Political and economic outlook A planned constitutional reform will limit the power of the new president, Miguel Díaz­Canel, who took office in April 2018. The reform will decentralise power from the executive, raising risks to political stability as different figures compete for authority. The revolutionary leader and former president, Raúl Castro (2008­18), will retain control as head of the ruling party and will remain an influential figure among the armed forces. The military will remain an important political and economic powerbroker. US-Cuba relations are likely to remain cool as long as Donald Trump remains the US president, although warmer relations are likely later in the forecast period. Ties with the EU will improve under a new bilateral co-operation accord. Moves towards economic liberalisation will be cautious. The government will entrench existing reforms rather than introduce major new ones. The non-state sector will expand, but The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the government to limit its pace of growth. Cuts in Venezuelan aid, lower exports and austerity measures will keep GDP growth low in the first half of the forecast period. It will pick up notably in 2021-23, helped by better access to financing, growth in tourism and progress on economic reforms. The authorities will unify the Cuban and convertible pesos in preparation for the eventual removal of the convertible peso from circulation. The process is unlikely to begin before 2021. We expect any transition to be gradual. Key indicators 2018a 2019b 2020b 2021b 2022b 2023b Real GDP growth (%) 0.9 0.8 0.4 3.5 3.8 3.9 Consumer price inflation (av; %)c 6.9 5.4 4.6 5.1 6.7 6.4 Government balance (% of GDP) -8.9 -6.7 -5.4 -4.2 -3.1 -2.4 Current-account balance (% of GDP) 1.0 1.7 1.6 0.2 -1.1 -1.8 Unemployment rate (%)d 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.7 3.9 4.0 Exchange rate CUC:US$ (av)e 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 a Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. b Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. c Economist Intelligence Unit estimate, based on official data. d The official definition of unemployment includes only those laid off from employment who are registered as seeking work. e Official rate. Country Report November 2018 www.eiu.com © Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2018 Cuba 3 Key changes since October 1st The national statistics office released data on 2017 growth, which came in above our estimate, at 1.8%. Recovery from Hurricane Irma drove the result, with higher government consumption on the demand side, and construction growth on the supply side. In the light of the new data, we have adjusted our forecasts for 2018-20 downwards, given the higher base of comparison and the fact that much of the benefit from reconstruction will have taken place in 2017; our forecasts are now in line with those of the government. The government also released current-account data for 2015 (although not a breakdown by component), which also came in below our estimates. We have adjusted our subsequent forecasts accordingly. The month ahead December TBD: Government to announce 2018 growth estimate: The minister of economy usually presents a growth estimate for the year at a December meeting of the council of ministers. The government forecasts that growth this year will come in at around 1%; we estimate growth of 0.9%. TBD: Constitutional reform responds to popular consultation: Public consultation on constitutional reform ended on November 15th. The commission will now respond to public input to draft a new version, before submitting the reform to a public referendum early next year. Major risks to our forecast Scenarios, Q3 2018 Probability Impact Intensity Economic crisis in Venezuela results in a sudden collapse of oil supply and High High 16 demand for Cuban service exports Weather-related shocks cause extensive damage to infrastructure High High 16 Eventual currency reform creates monetary instability Very High Moderate 15 An ageing population, net emigration and "brain drain" add to skilled-labour High Moderate 12 shortages Businesses suffer losses due to theft High Moderate 12 Note: Scenarios and scores are taken from our Risk Briefing product. Risk scenarios are potential developments that might substantially change the business operating environment over the coming two years. Risk intensity is a product of probability and impact, on a 25-point scale. Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit. Country Report November 2018 www.eiu.com © Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2018 Cuba 4 Outlook for 2019-23 Political stability The political scene will be dominated by a transition to a new generation of leadership, coinciding with ongoing but cautious economic reform. Restraint in the reform process is evident in the proposed constitutional reform, introduced in late July. A period of public consultation on the constitutional reform will conclude in mid-November. Following this, the reform will be submitted for ratification by public referendum in early 2019. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects it to pass. Planned constitutional changes will have the effect of dividing power between many, varied stakeholders, rather than centralising it in the hands of a single, powerful leader, as has been the case since the 1959 revolution. The reform will decentralise power away from the presidential office by re-introducing the role of prime minister (which was eliminated in 1976). The prime minister, chosen by the president, will lead the cabinet in the day-to-day running of the country, while the role of president will be more ceremonial. This will limit the power of the new president, Miguel Díaz­Canel, who was chosen in April to replace his predecessor, the revolutionary leader Raúl Castro (2008­18). Mr Castro will remain influential as head of the ruling Partido Comunista de Cuba (PCC) and the Politburo, Cuba's highest decision-making body, until the next party congress in 2021. Mr Castro retains significant influence within the armed forces, an important political and economic powerbroker in Cuba. With more disparate sources of power, leaders may vie for authority, raising risks to stability. Despite the political changes, economic and social reforms are likely to be only gradual, given the government's wariness of the destabilising effects of liberalisation. Social protest could rise if economic reforms fail to generate more opportunities and better living standards, or if they create higher income inequality.
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