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Country Report Cuba at a Glance: 2007-08

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Country Report Cuba at a Glance: 2007-08 Country Report Cuba Cuba at a glance: 2007-08 OVERVIEW It now seems unlikely that the president, Fidel Castro, will return to office. Since he handed over "temporarily" to his brother and vice-president, Raúl, in July 2006, the process of succession has taken place. Raúl Castro has settled into his role as acting president, reducing political risk in the event of Fidel Castro’s death. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects evolutionary, rather than sudden, political and economic change within the existing political system. Hostile relations with the US will persist, but there is a growing possibility of improvement after 2008. The Banco Central de Cuba (BCC, the Central Bank) will maintain discipline in macroeconomic management but liberalising reforms will be slow. GDP growth will decelerate to 7% in 2007 and 5.7% in 2008. Investment will drive growth, supported by rising household spending. Construction, infrastructure and manufacturing will expand, and there will be some recovery in agriculture. The current account will show a small deficit, which will be matched by net direct investment and debt financing flows. Key changes from last month Political outlook • Raul Castro!s speech on the July 26th confirmed the change in style of leadership. It was relatively short, and reiterated the priority being given to improvements in productivity. It also repeated the "olive branch" offered to the US, but we do not expect US-Cuban relations to improve until after 2008. Economic policy outlook • Public statements by the acting president and other officials confirm a policy of gradual adjustment. In the coming year a greater availability of consumer goods will be coupled with a series of reforms of official prices, while a series of commissions examine more far-reaching proposals. Economic forecast • The cost of imports has been higher than expected in 2007, and may have contributed to recent trimming of state investment plans. Our GDP growth forecast has been cut slightly, from 7.1% to 7%, in the light of this adjustment. August 2007 The Economist Intelligence Unit 26 Red Lion Square London WC1R 4HQ United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For 60 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The Economist Intelligence Unit delivers its information in four ways: through its digital portfolio, where the latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 26 Red Lion Square The Economist Building 60/F, Central Plaza London 111 West 57th Street 18 Harbour Road WC1R 4HQ New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, US Hong Kong Tel: (44.20) 7576 8000 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2585 3888 Fax: (44.20) 7576 8500 Fax: (1.212) 586 0248 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.eiu.com Electronic delivery This publication can be viewed by subscribing online at www.store.eiu.com Reports are also available in various other electronic formats, such as CD-ROM, Lotus Notes, online databases and as direct feeds to corporate intranets. For further information, please contact your nearest Economist Intelligence Unit office Copyright © 2007 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author's and the publisher's ability. However, the Economist Intelligence Unit does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 1465-6388 Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Patersons Dartford, Questor Trade Park, 151 Avery Way, Dartford, Kent DA1 1JS, UK. Cuba 1 Contents Cuba 3 Summary 4 Political structure 5 Economic structure 5 Annual indicators 6 Outlook for 2007-08 6 Political outlook 7 Economic policy outlook 8 Economic forecast 11 The political scene 19 Economic policy 23 The domestic economy 24 Agriculture 26 Infrastructure 27 Mining and energy 29 To u r i s m 31 Foreign trade and payments List of tables 8 International assumptions summary 10 Forecast summary 24 Average price increases in 2006 29 Tourist arrivals by source country 30 Tourism indicators 32 External debt List of figures 11 Gross domestic product 11 Consumer price inflation 21 Household consumption by market 25 Fresh fruit and vegetables 28 Oil, gas and nickel production 29 Installed generating capacity by type Country Report August 2007 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2007 Cuba 3 Cuba August 2007 Summary Outlook for 2007-08 Fidel Castro is now unlikely to return to office and the succession has taken place. Since taking over "temporarily" in July 2006, Raúl Castro has settled into his role as acting president, reducing political risk in the event of Fidel Castro’s death. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects evolutionary, rather than sudden, political and economic change within the existing political system. Hostile relations with the US will persist until 2008. The Banco Central de Cuba (BCC, the Central Bank) will maintain discipline in macroeconomic management as household consumption rises. GDP growth will slow to 7% in 2007 and 5.7% in 2008. Growth will be led on the demand side by investment and consumer spending, and on the supply side by construction and infrastructure, with some recovery too in manufacturing and agriculture. The current account will show a small deficit, matched by capital inflows. The political scene With the leadership succession looking increasingly permanent, Raúl Castro has consolidated his authority. Economic efficiency and the justice system have been under review. Dissidents have continued to risk prosecution. Cuba has offered talks to the US despite angry rhetoric. US policy has not shifted, and EU policy has not changed sufficiently to satisfy Cuba. Diplomatic efforts beyond the OECD have yielded political and economic rewards. Economic policy The leadership has encouraged the airing of problems and suggestions. The level of household consumption has grown but consumer choice has been lacking. Uncomfortably tight monetary discipline has contained pressure on market price, but perceived inflation is high. Industrial policy debates have highlighted low productivity and weak incentives. The domestic economy GDP growth appears to have slowed, and inflation data are hard to interpret. More rain and cash have brought relief to farmers, but the sugar crop has been hit by high humidity and supply delays. Oil and gas output are up and progress on the "energy revolution" has been reported. A decline in tourist arrivals has prompted a policy response. Foreign trade and payments Price and output trends suggest that the trade deficit has widened. Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows have held up despite an increase in state control. Financing from Venezuela and China has contributed to a sharp rise in the external debt stock, while US restrictions have deterred the activities of international banks. Editors: Emily Morris (editor); Ondine Smulders (consulting editor) Editorial closing date: August 14th 2007 All queries: Tel: (44.20) 7576 8000 E-mail: [email protected] Next report: Full schedule on www.eiu.com/schedule Country Report August 2007 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2007 4 Cuba Political structure Official name Republic of Cuba Form of government Centralised political system, with close identification between the PCC and the state Head of state The president, Fidel Castro Ruz, has been absent from office through illness since July 31st 2006. His deputy and brother, Raúl Castro, is acting president The executive The Council of Ministers is the highest executive body; its Executive Committee is composed of the president, the first vice-president and the vice-presidents of the Council of Ministers National legislature National Assembly of People’s Power; 609 members elected by direct ballot; the Assembly meets twice a year, and extraordinary sessions can be called Legal system A People’s Supreme Court oversees a system of regional tribunals; the Supreme Court is accountable to the National Assembly National elections Provincial and national assemblies: last elections January 2003; next elections due in January 2008. Municipal elections: last held April 2005; next due in October 2007 National government The organs of the state and the PCC are closely entwined, and power devolves principally from the Executive Committee of the Council of Ministers Main political organisation The Partido Comunista de Cuba (PCC) is the only legal political party President of the councils of state & ministers Fidel Castro Ruz First vice-president (& current acting president) Raúl Castro Ruz Vice-president Carlos Lage Dávila President of the National Assembly Ricardo Alarcón de Quesada Key
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