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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR a DAILY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE Monday, December 23, 2019

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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR a DAILY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE Monday, December 23, 2019 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR A DAILY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org Monday, December 23, 2019 BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TODAY’S NEWS Diego Arria Director, Columbus Group POLITICAL Devry Boughner Vorwerk Are Social Protests CEO, Rebels Attack DevryBV Sustainable Strategies Military, Police Joyce Chang in Latin America Posts in Venezuela Global Head of Research, JPMorgan Chase & Co. The attackers, reported to be led Paula Cifuentes by a deserting soldier, seized Director of Economic & Fiscal Affairs, Hurting Growth? weapons and killed at least one Latin America & Canada, Philip Morris International army offi cer at a military outpost Marlene Fernández in the remote Bolívar state before Corporate Vice President for fl eeing. Several have been appre- Government Relations, hended by authorities. Arcos Dorados Page 2 Peter Hakim President Emeritus, Inter-American Dialogue POLITICAL Donna Hrinak President, Boeing Latin America Cuba Names First Jon E. Huenemann Prime Minister in Former Corporate and Government Senior Executive Four Decades James R. Jones Manuel Marrero Cruz, 56, who will Chairman, Ongoing protests in several countries could be bad news for some of the region’s economies Monarch Global Strategies and investor appetite, commentators say below. A protest last month in Cali, Colombia is serve a fi ve-year term as prime minister, has been Cuba’s tourism Craig A. Kelly pictured above. // Photo: Roboting via Creative Commons. minister for almost 16 years. The Director, Americas International Social and political unrest have taken a toll on Latin Ameri- Gov’t Relations, Exxon Mobil position was eliminated by Fidel John Maisto can assets, with the region’s dollar bonds dropping 3.5 per- Castro in 1976. He reports to Cu- Director, U.S. Education cent from early August to November, the worst performance ban President Miguel Díaz-Canel. Finance Group Q Page 2 among emerging markets, according to JP Morgan Chase. Nicolás Mariscal Chairman, Of the 10 emerging markets with the worst-performing dollar debt in No- Grupo Marhnos vember, six are from Latin America. Additionally, currencies of countries ECONOMIC Thomas F. McLarty III Chairman, such as Chile, Mexico, Peru and Brazil have seen volatility in the past Argentina Enters McLarty Associates months, and several governments have also cut their forecasts for this ‘Virtual Default’ Carlos Paz-Soldan Partner, year’s economic growth. To what extent have social protests dampened President Alberto Fernández DTB Associates, LLP investor appetite for Latin American and Caribbean debt and assets? unilaterally postponed until August paying some $9 billion in Beatrice Rangel How much has the growth outlook changed as a result? What will next Director, maturities, which resulted in the AMLA Consulting LLC year bring for the region’s largest economies, and how can they prepare country’s debt being downgraded Jaana Remes by ratings agencies. Partner, for it? Which countries will fare best and worst, and why? McKinsey Global Institute Page 2 Ernesto Revilla Head of Latin American Joydeep Mukherji, managing director of Latin American Economics, Citi Sovereigns Ratings at Standard & Poor’s in New York: “We Gustavo Roosen Chairman of the Board, expect the region to grow less than 2 percent for the seventh Envases Venezolanos A consecutive year. Despite low interest rates and continued Andrés Rozental growth in the United States, the region’s economic performance will be President, Rozental & Asociados dampened by low investment and diverse political challenges. Among Shelly Shetty the bigger economies, Colombia may grow fastest, around 3.2 percent, Head of Sovereign Ratings, Latin America, Fitch followed by Peru at 2.8 percent. Brazil is likely to grow only 2 percent, un- Roberto Sifon-Arevalo less progress with the government’s reforms spurs greater private sector Managing Director, Americas Sovereign & Public Finance Ratings, investment. Mexico will grow around 1 percent, despite recent agreement Standard & Poor’s on the USMCA. Both Argentina and Venezuela will contract again in 2020. Infl ation is likely to be low across the region, other than in Venezuela and Fernández // File Photo: Argentine Government. Continued on page 3 COPYRIGHT © 2019, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 1 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Monday, December 23, 2019 POLITICAL NEWS U.S. President Donald Trump has issued 78 NEWS BRIEFS sanctions against Maduro’s government. Rebel Soldier Leads ExxonMobil Begins Oil Attack on Venezuelan Cuba Names First Production in Guyana Prime Minister in ExxonMobil on Saturday announced it has Military, Police Posts started producing oil from the Liza fi eld off- Four Decades shore Guyana ahead of schedule and less than Venezuela’s defense minister said that “extrem- fi ve years after the fi rst discovery of hydrocar- ist opposition sectors” attacked an outpost Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel on Satur- bons there, which it said is well ahead of the near the border with Brazil early Sunday, killing day named the country’s fi rst prime minister industry average for deepwater developments. at least one army offi cer, the Associated Press in more than four decades, CNN reported. In a statement, the Houston-based company reported. Gen. Vladimir Padrino López said via Manuel Marrero Cruz, 56, who will serve a said it expects to reach full capacity of 120,000 Twitter that the attackers, reported to be led fi ve-year term as prime minister, has been barrels of oil per day in coming months. About by a deserting soldier, took weapons from the Cuba’s tourism minister for almost 16 years. half its 3,400 employees and other workers post. Some of those involved were detained Tourism has become increasingly important to supporting its activities in Guyana are Guya- and being questioned while the army and other Cuba’s communist economy, which struggles nese, ExxonMobil said. security forces were pursuing the rest, he said, with electricity outages and shortages of basic adding that the weapons were later recovered. goods. But tourism to Cuba is expected to drop Information Minister Jorge Rodríguez said six 8.5 percent this year in the wake of tighter U.S. 18 Inmates Killed in Latest travel restrictions to the Caribbean island, the Honduran Prison Riot Cuban government said in July. Analysts say Marrero’s experience in negotiating deals with Eighteen inmates were killed Sunday in fi ghts international companies could prove critical to between rival gangs at Honduras’ El Porvenir a government facing broader sanctions from prison, less than two days after similar violence the United States, the Associated Press report- at another facility, La Prensa reported. Deputy ed. The post of prime minister was last held by minister for security Luis Suazo said machetes revolutionary leader Fidel Castro, who changed and guns were used in the fi ght, which broke his title to president and abolished the post of out during visiting hours when women and prime minister in 1976. Marrero is expected to children were present, according to the report. Padrino // File Photo: Russian Government. manage the day-to-day operations of the Cuban On Friday, 18 inmates were killed and 16 hurt people had been arrested in connection with government but will still report to the president. in a prison near Tela, BBC News reported. The the attack by a “group of armed terrorists.” A Díaz-Canel is the country’s head of state. Raúl government declared a state of emergency in police station in Bolívar state was also hit by Castro, Fidel’s octogenarian brother, remains the prison system last Wednesday. the group, Reuters reported. The incident took the fi rst secretary of the Communist Party, place in Gran Sabana National Park, home to still playing a powerful role in the government, the tallest waterfall in the world and one of the according to Cuba observers. [Editor’s note: Colombia Raises $1.5 Bn country’s most important tourist destinations. See related Q&A in the Nov. 11 issue of the In related news, the United States on Friday Advisor.] in Bandwidth Auction accused Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro Colombia’s government on Friday awarded of trying to rig a coming election for control of bandwidth to three phone companies in an his country’s parliament, either by detaining op- ECONOMIC NEWS auction that raised some $1.5 billion, Reuters position leaders, stripping lawmakers of their reported. Claro, a subsidiary of América Móvil, immunity or bribing them with up to $500,000 Millicom’s Tigo and Novator Partners from for each vote, The New York Times reported. Argentina Falls Into Britain each won awards. Movistar, a subsid- Elliott Abrams, the State Department’s special ‘Virtual Default’ iary of Telefónica of Spain, did not make a envoy for Venezuela, said lawmakers have re- winning bid. “This is the largest mobile social ported being offered hundreds of thousands of connectivity project in the history of Colombia Argentine President Alberto Fernández said dollars to vote against Juan Guaidó, the leader that will allow, for the fi rst time, Internet access Sunday his country is in virtual default on its of the National Assembly who faces internal for millions of Colombians in rural areas,” debt and compared the situation with the 2001 re-election on Jan. 5. The administration of President Iván Duque said on Twitter. economic meltdown, Agence France-Presse COPYRIGHT © 2019, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 2 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Monday, December 23, 2019 reported. “It is not the same as 2001, but it is FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 1 similar. At that time poverty was at 57 percent, today we have 41 percent poor people; then Argentina, a rare bit of good economic news. without Venezuela), compared with 3.5 per- we had a debt default, today we are in virtual Poor economic performance increases the cent globally. Even with slowing population default,” Fernández said in an interview with risk of social protests across the region.
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