THE HOUSING DILEMMA How Can Britain Build More Homes?

THE HOUSING DILEMMA How can Britain build more homes?

WHAT WILL THE REINVENTION OF RETAIL LOOK LIKE? TIM DENISON

IT’S NOT JUST ABOUT PLANNING MIKE AMESBURY

LESSONS FROM GRENFELL GILL KERNICK

JULY 2021 | IN ASSOCIATION WITH

RICs_suppJE edit.indd 1 28/05/2021 09:29 2 THE HOUSING DILEMMA PROSPECT | JULY 2021

RICs_suppJE edit.indd 2 28/05/2021 09:42 JULY 2021 | PROSPECT THE HOUSING DILEMMA 1

CONTENTS PLANNING AHEAD What the experts think about our housing dilemma JAY ELWES PROSPECT 2 THE HOUSING TRAP Everyone knows what the problem is JAY ELWES uccessive governments have known 2 4 LET THE MARKET DECIDE that Britain has needed more housing We need less red tape and fewer rules and the construction industry agrees. So why hasn’t it happened? BOB BLACKMAN S That is the question behind this 6 IT’S NOT JUST ABOUT PLANNING collection of articles by experts, politicians Why the government can’t just leave and architects. The picture that emerges the free market to sort out our from what they have to say is a frustrating housing crisis one. At the centre of it all is the planning MIKE AMESBURY system, designed to make sure new developments are socially and economically 8 WHAT MODULAR CONSTRUCTION suitable, but which acts as a brake on METHODS CAN DO TO HELP progress. Politicians instinctively suspicious BRITAIN TO BUILD MORE HOMES of large companies like the restraining In the past, modular construction was influence of regulation—but in this case, beset by setbacks—but could things be one of the consequences is a shortage of changing? places for people to live. BEN DERBYSHIRE The new Planning Bill, introduced by 9 the government in May, aims to loosen 10 IN NUMBERS: BRITAIN’S HOUSING the planning rules and make it easier for Expensive and exclusive: figures show local authorities to grant permission for homeownership remains a remote new building. This will bring a new edge prospect for many of political confrontation to the debate, not DAVID McALLISTER just across the Commons floor, but within the Conservative Party itself. Will traditional 12 FUTURE GAZING: WHAT WILL Tory voters in rural constituencies stand THE REINVENTION OF RETAIL for all that development going on around LOOK LIKE? them, under new rules imposed on by a Intelligent retailers know that there PM whose constituency is one of the very will never be a return to “normal” few remaining Conservative seats in greater TIM DENISON London? And what of the high street? The 14 LESSONS FROM GRENFELL world of retail has had a tough pandemic, Has enough been done by the and some very high-profile brands have government on safety since the disaster vanished. Now that a sense of normality 14 and if not, why not? is returning, what will the new high GILL KERNICK street look like and how will that shape the look of city and town centres? Online retail has surged during Covid, and that has changed people’s view of shopping. Can the outside world match those new expectations? Also contained here is a piece on the aftermath and legacy of the Grenfell Tower fire. Have we done enough on safety? The verdict is no, we have not, and that the bill for the necessary safety measures runs into the tens of billions. Who will pay that bill? What happens if we do not?

Follow Prospect

twitter.com/prospect_uk This report forms part of Prospect’s work on infrastructure and housing. For more information on the report

COVER © RICHARD WHITCOMBE / SHUTTERSTOCK RICHARD WHITCOMBE COVER © www.facebook.com/Prospect.Mag and our wider programme of activity please email: [email protected]

RICs_suppJE edit.indd 1 28/05/2021 09:55 2 THE HOUSING DILEMMA PROSPECT | JULY 2021

THE HOUSING TRAP Politicians and industry know we need to build more homes. Why hasn’t it happened?

JAY ELWES ASSOCIATE EDITOR, PROSPECT AND COMMISSIONING EDITOR, THEARTICLE.COM

ritain doesn’t build enough homes. From that one fact, A reduction, yes, but that amount is still more than the budgets of a long chain of consequences follows. For one thing, it the Cabinet Office, the Treasury, HMRC, the Department for Work means that homes in Britain are extremely expensive. and Pensions, Defra and the Department for Culture, Media and According to the Office for National Statistics, the Sport combined. In effect, tens of billions of pounds each year are average salary in Britain in 2021 is £29,744. The paid from government coffers to people who then hand it straight Baverage house price in the UK (as of March 2021) is £256,405 to their landlords. and prices have risen 10.2 per cent in the last 12 months. And if If someone tried to design a housing system and they came up you want to settle in London, the average property price is now over with this one, they would be told to think again. It is absurd, and at the half a million. No wonder so many people have chosen to move out. root of it all is the shortage of housing. The developers aren’t building Big prices mean big mortgages, taken out by the millions who enough. There isn’t enough private housing to buy, and there isn’t are looking to climb what’s usually called the “housing ladder.” But enough social housing for those who need it. And sitting on top of it all the “ladder” metaphor, with its connotations of a consistent and is a sclerotic, top-down planning system, which requires councils to inevitable upward advance, is deceptive. Most people who take out develop a local plan for new housing development, which is then sent a mortgage are so burdened with debt they’ll spend the rest of their for approval in Whitehall. This bureaucratic back and forth can delay working life paying it off. Less “ladder,” more “merry-go-round.” new development for years, or even stop it in its tracks. And these, of course, are the fortunate ones. High prices mean In the planning system, it is Section 106 that causes particular that many people are simply shut out of the property market. problems. It requires developers to make a contribution to the cost That is not only unfair, it is also absurd. Homes should not be a of local amenities, which seems reasonable enough. But the system luxury. They are an essential. In the postwar period, the possibility also requires developers to provide a Suitable Alternative Natural of homeownership was within the grasp of the average worker. Greenspace—or SANG—to offset the environmental effects of According to Nationwide, the average UK house price in 1952 was development. Developers are then required to enter into a Section £1,891—at the time, the average annual wage was £481, giving 106 agreement on the SANG itself. a wage-to-house price ratio of around four. Nowadays, that ratio is over eight and a half. If you live in London, it’s almost 17. Recent decades of surging house prices have skewed the “ IF SOMEONE TRIED TO DESIGN A housing problem significantly towards the young. Back in November HOUSING SYSTEM AND THEY CAME 1996, a five-bedroom terraced house in Fulham, southwest London, could be bought for £143,500. Now, a house like that UP WITH THIS ONE, THEY WOULD BE costs £1.3m. These sorts of increases not only shut younger buyers TOLD TO THINK AGAIN. IT IS ABSURD” out of huge swathes of the capital and other desirable areas across the UK, they also create socio-economic bubbles. These clusters of high-end, expensive homes are snapped up by the successful, The hope is that the Planning Bill, announced in the Queen’s professional classes. As a result, the local schools find themselves Speech in May, will begin to unpick these complexities. The bill with an intake of middle- and upper-middle class children from proposes a number of changes, most significantly that land will increasingly affluent backgrounds. The involvement of successful have one of three designations: growth, protection or renewal. parents in the running of schools is one of the factors that drives For sections of land designated for “growth,” there will be a their improvement. And so it is that more expensive house prices presumption of automatic outline planning permission. The create social enclaves that span generations. These bubbles are government proposes to do away with Section 106 altogether. sealed off from the rest by the enormous cost of buying in. The bill comes before parliament in the autumn, and it will cause There are millions of people for whom owning their own home trouble on all sides of the Commons. Conservative MPs will have is impossible, and of those, some will struggle to pay the rent. They a particularly hard calculation to make. The current government come to rely on social housing—but there is a substantial shortfall in prides itself on its go-ahead, liberal economic character. Ideas such the supply of social housing, which can push people into the pricier as free ports are a reflection of this. No 10 wants—and needs—new private rented sector. According to the HomeLet Rental Index, the trade deals, along with the development of new, vibrant businesses, average monthly rent in the UK is now £966, which is up 2.9 per that will power Britain ahead after the twin hits of Brexit and Covid. cent from last year. That’s an average rent of £11,592 per year—a Housing is part of this picture. When it comes to planning No 10 stretch even for people earning the average annual wage. sources stress that, in Britain, “we need a [planning] system for The government provides housing benefit to help with the rent. the 21st century—one which embraces digital technology, is more But as property prices have spiralled upwards and rents have risen, predictable and creates places we are proud of.” the housing benefit bill has swollen out of all proportion. Back in But the make-up of the Conservative Party’s membership makes 1986-1987, the government paid £3.8bn in housing benefit. this drive to loosen the planning system a little tricky. The traditional In 2014-2015 the bill peaked at £24.3bn and since then it has shire Conservatives, along with the denizens of the Home Counties fallen away somewhat, so that in 2020 it was down to £18.3bn. green belt, won’t like the sound of any easing of the planning rules.

RICs_suppJE edit.indd 2 28/05/2021 10:19 JULY 2021 | PROSPECT THE HOUSING DILEMMA 3 © GILLIAN PULLINGER / ALAMY© GILLIAN PULLINGER PHOTO STOCK

Southwood (And remember who it was that picked Boris Johnson “Help to Buy” scheme, the government encouraged Country Park in to be leader of the Conservative Party.) The MPs who people to buy their own homes. But if a surge of new Farnborough, represent these southern, leafy constituencies will have homebuilding were to lead to a decline in house prices, Hampshire, a lot to say about the idea of throwing up acres of new- then the government would have encouraged people previously a golf builds. Away from the southeastern corner, the problem to take out mortgages at the bottom of the interest course, now a repeats itself—the Conservatives are now the party rate cycle, and then proceeded to introduce policies local area of of the British rural population. With the exception of designed to devalue their homes in a time of rising green space Scotland, the electoral map of the country is now largely inﬂation. That would lead to homes losing their value, blue, except for the red cities. Tory MPs everywhere will just as mortgage repayments started to increase. have some serious questions to ask about the disruption So either the government’s new planning policies to the lives of their constituents. will do nothing to solve the problem of excessive Labour will have a very different calculation to make. house prices, or they will have the effect of devaluing The Corbyn policy in the run-up to the 2019 election the housing market. Either of those two things has the came close to suggesting that the building industry potential to be politically incendiary. Over a year ago, should be taken under government control. Keir Starmer I interviewed Robert Jenrick, the Secretary of State is a long way from that. But Labour will need to welcome for Housing, and I put this issue to him. He refused the government’s plan to build more homes, while to be drawn on it, but made it clear that it was not expressing unease at how this round of deregulation government policy to devalue the housing market. A throws open the door to the big developers. spokesperson from his department told me recently If the government gets its way—and with a in a statement: “We are enabling the delivery of the parliamentary majority of 80, that would seem new homes the country needs, taking decisive action to likely—then a wave of new homes could follow. But ensure our communities have beautiful places to live in the problem is not only one of supply. It is a problem that reﬂect the character of the area. of price. The intuitive economic assumption is that a “We delivered more than 243,000 homes last year— growth in supply tends to make something cheaper. But the highest in over 30 years and the seventh year in a it is not necessarily the case with housing, where greater row with an increase. supply does not always depress prices. Or at least, that “Our wholesale reform of the planning system, First is what the government must be hoping. Through its Homes, Shared Ownership, £12bn investment in

RICs_suppJE edit.indd 3 28/05/2021 09:57 4 THE HOUSING DILEMMA PROSPECT | JULY 2021

affordable homes, the Help to Buy scheme, and the new LET THE MARKET DECIDE mortgage guarantee scheme will help many more people get the keys to their own home.” This government has a broad populist streak. It is Less red tape and lower taxes will fi x the problem easy to see how the idea that, under Johnson, “more people get the keys to their own home” fi ts into that. But as with all populist ideas, what sounds easy in a press or years, the country, but more prolifi cally release is much trickier in practice. A surge in home the capital, has been failing to generate the building will meet a counter-surge of Nimbyism. The numbers of new homes it needs to house new Planning Bill still leaves signifi cant powers at the F a population that has been growing fast. local level—and it is at the local level that these planning According to the 2011 census, London needs at least disputes will be most aggressively fought. In the recent 40,000 new homes every year just to keep pace, yet round of local elections, the Green Party gained 80 over the last three years, only 107,800 were built. seats, 14 of those in Bristol, where it is now the joint- Councils in London have recently calculated that biggest party in the council. These are modest fi gures, to clear the backlog and meet growing demand more but indicative of a new, environmental focus amongst than 100,000 new homes a year are required—but the electorate. There are plenty of people who will react house prices in London are now soaring above where badly to a loosening of the planning laws. they were before the crash, placing homeownership The government wants to build 300,000 homes beyond the reach of ever more Londoners, not to a year by the mid-2020s—that’s the equivalent of mention others who would like to move here. This is a Newcastle every 12 months. Some of those new not a recent phenomenon. The days when an average homes will need to be for rent, and some of those at sort of London wage could buy a fi rst, modest London subsidised rates. But who’s going to build all these home in a shabby part of town disappeared more than houses? The building industry is already reporting a 30 years ago. shortfall in labour, and the blame for that lies largely There has been a more modest decline in the with Brexit. When Britain left the EU, a large section social rented sector in recent years—fewer residences, of the workforce went back home, which turned out then, for people on low incomes and in great need. to be on the continent. Where will all the workers Meanwhile, the private rented sector has enlarged in come from? the last ten years, but that too has become ferociously The house building industry is not static. It is expensive and, in too many cases, is badly run. constantly looking to adopt new technologies and The social implications of rising cost and under- manufacturing processes to speed up the construction of supply are shocking. Over-crowding is rife, with dwellings having too few bedrooms for their occupants. The cost and insecurity of the private rented sector also fosters unwelcome population churn, with households having to move against their will, often disrupting school, work and family life for those most in need of stability. Unencumbering market forces could be the solution, at least in the short term. It’s not so much a question of the type of housing supplied but the quantity. We must deliver more homes, all told. And that is the biggest and best solution to a lot of the controversies and the discontents around housing at the moment. Coupled with the basic rules of supply and demand, this should ensure that house prices become stabilised, as long as supply isn’t blocked by things like speculator taxes and over-regulation. Doing this, however, is a far larger task, one that entails matching a vastly increased supply of homes to the full spectrum of demand, with those on middle and low incomes as the top priority, modernising the private rented sector and shifting spending away from benefi ts and towards investment in low-cost homes.

Bob Blackman is executive secretary of the 1922 Committee and sits on the Housing, Communities and Local Government Committee

RICs_suppJE edit.indd 4 28/05/2021 10:01 JULY 2021 | PROSPECT THE HOUSING DILEMMA 5

new homes and the renovation of old ones. That requires can a government bring prices down without causing the use of new methods of manufacturing, including the a political firestorm, an economic collapse, or both? development of new kinds of modular homes. These If that’s an insoluble problem, the only alternative is are constructed offsite, shipped to the place where they to make wages rise. Well, yes—but that is simply to are to be installed and then put together, as if from a exchange one huge problem for another, even larger one. flat-pack kit. This speeds up the construction process The fundamental problem is that, somewhere substantially—but it brings further issues. The people along the line, homes moved from being treated as a who you need to design, ship and build homes like this possession to being regarded as an investment asset. are technically skilled, and again, Britain doesn’t have This shift started in the 1980s, when some clever enough of them. The problem here is one of education. people on Wall Street worked out how to tap the huge The country is not producing people with the skills to value that was kicking about in the home loans market. oversee or carry out this sort of work. Without them, we They realised that, if a bank lends someone a pile of will not be able to build the homes we need. money to buy a home, then the bank ends up with a signed piece of paper, a contract with the borrower. This contract can then be sold—it is a tradable security. This “ HOW CAN A GOVERNMENT insight underlies the entire mortgage market, which BRING PRICES DOWN WITHOUT in the period of low interest rates since the crash of 2008 has been doing very well. The Treasury’s policy CAUSING A POLITICAL of quantitative easing essentially created new money FIRESTORM, AN ECONOMIC within banks, which it lent generously to, among others, homebuyers. This, combined with buyers from the COLLAPSE, OR BOTH?” continent looking to get their savings out of euros, drove a boom in British house prices, which now stand well Politicians have known for decades that there is a above their pre-2008 peak. problem with housing. The solution has been clear all It is not clear that planning changes will have any along—build more houses. The industry agrees. In effect on the status of housing as an investment asset, or fact, everyone agrees. The question is, why hasn’t that whether a government with liberal economic tendencies happened? The planning system, Nimbyism and political would want to change that status anyway. So long as cowardice have all played a part. Of the three, the last that remains the case—and homes in Britain remain has been the most damaging. And then there is the issue out of the financial reach of a significant part of the of price. It is not clear how a government, especially a population who cannot afford to buy or even rent them— Conservative government, can solve that problem. How then the housing problem will remain unsolved. © ROGER BAMBER / ALAMY© ROGER BAMBER PHOTO STOCK

RICs_suppJE edit.indd 5 28/05/2021 10:01 6 THE HOUSING DILEMMA PROSPECT | JULY 2021

IT’S NOT JUST ABOUT PLANNING Why the government can’t just leave the free market to sort out our housing crisis

MIKE AMESBURY SHADOW MINISTER FOR HOUSING

olving the housing crisis, boosting the economy, creating planning process. This was the point made by Civic Voice, who sustainable jobs, meeting net-zero goals and responding to reference only a very limited opportunity for engagement at the Covid are all laudable aims. How you get there is another early stage of a 30-month local plan timeframe. Smatter. It’s an age-old Conservative Party trick to create As the opposition, you would expect us to be against some a narrative about a broken system, then conclude that the only aspects of the proposals. But the vast majority of councillors also solution is the unfettered market riding in on a white charger. That’s believe these proposals are undemocratic—that includes 61 per what lay behind the Planning for the Future White Paper, now set to cent of Conservative councillors. Over 250,000 supporters of the come before us as a bill following the Queen’s Speech. countryside charity CPRE argue the same, along with many more There’s no doubt elements of the planning system are slow and organisations in and beyond the housing sector. The Woodland archaic. We need timely local plans, modern digital systems plus Trust, for example, is keen to know what environmental protections improved quality and design standards. But it’s wrong to lay the will be in place. And the prime minister’s comments about “newt- blame for the housing crisis at the door of the planning system. counting” do not exactly instil confi dence that the government Between 2010 and 2019, government cuts to local authority takes ecological protection seriously. budgets meant a 42 per cent reduction in the amount invested in Notable by its absence so far has been the lack of any mention planning authorities in England, stripping planning departments of of social housing. It seems likely we will remain over-reliant on the funding they need to work effectively. And we are not building private builders and market cycles when it comes to getting homes enough homes, which is less to do with a fl awed planning system built. If we’re serious about maximising housing delivery and and more to do with an over-reliance on market-led housing where meeting building targets, the government needs to stop ignoring supply is controlled in order to keep profi t margins high. the answer right in front of it: a new generation of high-quality, Let’s not forget there are 1.1m unbuilt housing permissions from affordable social homes, that will help us meet our net-zero goals. the last 10 years. That’s why we have called for “use it or lose The Local Government Association found that 30,000 it” initiatives to create opportunities for small- and medium-sized affordable homes over the past fi ve years would have gone unbuilt developers as well as public housing. if the government’s proposal to scrap Section 106 for developments Here we get to the crux of the matter. The government is too of under 40 or 50 homes had been in place. close to larger-scale developers that monopolise the market. These We cannot cheat our way out of the housing crisis. Building are the very developers that fi ll Conservative Party coffers. That’s healthy and sustainable homes should be the response to this why Labour called the White Paper “a developers’ charter.” pandemic. This is not about fi xing a broken system but about the We should be putting communities at the heart of good place- Conservatives selling out communities to reward their friends with making, strengthening and resourcing our planning system, a planning free-for-all. What bigger clue was there than when extending local democracy through digital and face-to-face Boris Johnson’s former top aide, Eddie Lister, who advised on engagement and making good quality, sustainable and affordable the planning reforms, suddenly and quietly stepped down after it housing available for all. emerged he was employed by two major property fi rms? You do not have to scratch far beneath the surface to discover that at the very heart of these proposals is a shift of control and infl uence from local communities to big developers and Whitehall. They will do very little to build back better, more beautiful and greener. In fact, letting the free market run rampant is likely to do the exact opposite. It will create a framework of chaos with an extension of permitted development rights that will lead to bad homes and blighted communities, with high streets hollowed out when former shops become houses in multiple occupation. One report from government advisers warned that permitted

development risked creating “future slums.” PHOTO STOCK © MIKE GORSKY/ALAMY Have we learned nothing about the health impact of overcrowding following Covid, or the need for proper building standards after the tragedy of Grenfell? The zonal approach of designating land for “growth,” “renewal” and “protection” is particularly concerning, analogous to building an artiﬁ cial world in a computer game. It runs the risk of well-resourced developers carving up villages, towns and cities—and also the green belt. After a decade of austerity and the impact of the pandemic, these reforms will strip away yet more power and ﬁ nance from local authorities and, with that, take away the ability of local

communities to have their voice effectively heard throughout the © SIMON TURNER/ALAMYPHOTO STOCK

RICs_suppJE edit.indd 6 28/05/2021 10:02 JULYADVERTORIAL 2021 | PROSPECT THE HOUSING DILEMMA 7

HOW WE ESTABLISHED A GLOBAL FIRE SAFETY STANDARD The UN has ratiﬁ ed the International Fire Safety Standard Common Principles, which RICS was instrumental in creating. While it will take time for governments to implement them, the impact should be felt immediately

GARY STRONG GLOBAL BUILDING STANDARDS DIRECTOR & CHAIR OF THE INTERNATIONAL FIRE SAFETY STANDARDS (IFSS) COALITION

he United Nations ratifi ed the very fi rst International Fire but that worked to our advantage—he had no entrenched views on Safety Standard (IFSS) Common Principles. For the fi rst time which existing code sets the highest standard, so was well placed in history, the world has a standard that all those involved to mediate the discussions. Tin constructing, managing and maintaining buildings can As a result, we quickly established some guiding principles use to keep people safe. That is a tangible achievement and one in that nobody could disagree with and then got into the nitty gritty. which RICS can take pride. An early draft of the standard was distributed to what we It is, of course, shocking that it has taken until 2020 for such a called friends and family at the end of 2019, ahead of a global standard to have emerged, and it is deeply sad that it took a tragedy consultation. That closed in May 2020 and we then spent the for it to happen. But the truth is that it took the Grenfell Tower next fi ve months taking in comments and fi nalising the text fi re for governments around the world to wake up and take fi re for publishing. The IFSS Common Principles were ultimately safety seriously. Other recent fi res in other places could—should— published on 5th October 2020. have galvanised action, but didn’t. The events of 14th June 2017 changed everything. In the aftermath of the tragedy, my team at RICS started looking “ IT BECAME CLEAR THAT THERE WERE at what fi re safety standards existed around the world to inform our MULTIPLE CODES AND STANDARDS. response in the UK. It rapidly became clear that there were multiple different codes and standards and little consistency. Terrifyingly, TERRIFYINGLY, SOME COUNTRIES some countries didn’t have any standards at all. DIDN’T HAVE ANY STANDARDS AT ALL” As a result, I started exploring the idea of establishing a coalition of professional bodies that would draw up a standard that could be adopted internationally. I began in the UK, talking to bodies While the committee was working on the document, I knew such as the Royal Institute of British Architects (RIBA) and the that it was important to ensure that it stayed on the UN’s radar. I Chartered Institute of Building (CIOB) before then reaching wanted to ensure that the hunger for the standard that had been out to organisations across the globe. Ultimately, 80 different so palpable in July 2018 didn’t wane, so I spent time building organisations signed up to be a part of the IFSS coalition. interest by presenting at UN general assemblies and talking to However, in order for the standard to have a real infl uence on individual country ambassadors and mission representatives in national governments, we knew that it needed to be endorsed by a Geneva. The result was that when I fi nally set out the proposal in supranational body—and the UN was the perfect choice. The UN is full, everybody knew it was coming and there was a strong desire a vast organisation and I was initially concerned that we would fi nd to see it ratifi ed as soon as possible—which happened on 13th it diffi cult to get a hearing. However, RICS has some good contacts November 2020. at the UN in Geneva and what I actually found was that we were Getting the UN’s endorsement makes for a great headline and pushing at an open door, as fi re safety is a global issue and fi ts with should have attracted attention in governments around the world. the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. In July 2018, they even That is to be welcomed and hopefully legislation will follow, however hosted the offi cial launch of the IFSS coalition. slowly the wheels of government might turn. At that point, the hard work began. We set up a standard-setting But the impact of the standard should be felt immediately. Every committee composed of 24 international fi re safety experts drawn one of those 80 professional bodies has agreed to use the standard, from across the built environment, all acting pro bono, and chaired meaning that hundreds of thousands of professionals will apply its

RICs_suppJE edit.indd 7 28/05/2021 10:07 8 THE HOUSING DILEMMA PROSPECT | JULY 2021

WHAT MODULAR CONSTRUCTION METHODS CAN DO TO HELP BRITAIN TO BUILD MORE HOMES In the past, modular construction was beset by set backs—but could things be changing?

BEN DERBYSHIRE CHAIR OF HTA DESIGN AND IMMEDIATE PAST PRESIDENT, RIBA

he idea of making houses in the subject has been amply covered by programme would be designed to stimulate factories has a long and chequered tabloid headlines this century featuring a national programme of research and history of idealistic attempts disgruntled homebuyers living with endless development in offsite construction and Tand noble failure. The apparent snagging defects. Now, the government’s other technologies. opportunity for improved working Construction Sector Deal calls for the To do this, government would need conditions, better quality control, speed, industry to reduce construction costs by to re-establish joint procurement and efficiency and environmental sustainability a third at the same time as halving build commissioning arrangements of the sort has long attracted policymakers, designers, programmes and greenhouse gas emissions. that were once commonplace but which manufacturers and entrepreneurs. Clients and design and construction have withered on the vine. Fortunately, more recently, there have been teams are expected to work more closely So, yes, the informed view is that some successes. together to improve safety, quality and modular construction certainly can help Henry Manning, a London carpenter, productivity during construction, optimise Britain build more homes, and can do the produced the Portable Cottage in 1837 for performance during the life of buildings and job far better, faster and more sustainably export to Australia. The Manning Cottage, better our ability to upgrade and ultimately than traditional construction ever could. as it became known, was widely advertised dismantle and recycle buildings. Our own projects at HTA Design show to appeal to British emigrants. how we can halve carbon use. We can In the early postwar years of the last deliver completed modules to sites more century, industrial capacity built up to “WE SHOULD EXPECT productively and safely with greatly supply the war effort was redirected in HOMES THAT EXPLOIT reduced logistical complexity. Britain to provide homes to replace those THE VALUE OF MODERN This brings us to the question of lost in the Blitz and to make up for the whether modernising the production of shortfall in recent development. Aneurin MANUFACTURING TO BE homes can deliver improvements on a Bevan said at the time: “I have been MORE GENEROUS” scale comparable to what we have seen looking eagerly, ever since I took office, in other industries that have benefited for some system of prefabrication which Modular offsite manufacture is from new technological capabilities. would enable us to build houses in the theoretically well-suited to delivering There is a real opportunity for housing in same way as cars and aeroplanes. So all of the outcomes required by the the information age to deliver so much far my search has been in vain, but I do Construction Sector Deal, but the industry more for households. We should expect not despair.” remains small, and confidence in it needs homes that exploit the value of modern In 1968, the collapse of the Ronan to be restored. Mike De’Ath, my colleague manufacturing to be more generous Point tower block in a gas explosion at HTA Design, and Mark Farmer, the and adaptable, characterised by space, came towards the end of an era of huge government’s modular construction light and air while the internet of things investment in prefabricated public housing tsar, wrote about the opportunities and advances digital convenience in the in the UK. It was a time portrayed by the challenges in their 2020 report “Build home at the rate we have experienced in housing minister Richard Crossman in his Homes, Build Jobs, Build Innovation.” mobile telephony. Diaries of a Cabinet Minister, in which a They argued that investment in offsite The design of these new houses staggering target of 500,000 new homes manufacturing could deliver all three. doesn’t have to be dully functional. Quite every year regularly came up in cabinet They also pointed out that, if factories the opposite—our homes at HTA Design discussions. Ronan Point was made of were spread across the country, this have the solid look and feel that the prefabricated concrete panels, which were would help the government with its nation expects of its housing. This point infamously jointed with wedged cigarette “levelling up” agenda. is endorsed by the current government’s packets. After a gas explosion on the 18th The De’Ath/Farmer report suggests style guru, Nicholas Boys Smith of Create floor, an entire corner came down like a a target of 75,000 more modular Streets and author of Build Better, Build house of cards. Shoddy construction and manufactured homes per year. This would Beautiful, who says “homes with mass corrupt practice brought the mid-century be on top of the current supply aspirations customisable pattern books aligned to local experiment with mass-produced housing of 300,000 homes per year. These design codes could accelerate delivery, to a shuddering halt. homes would be delivered in such a way restore competition and increase certainty But so-called “traditional construction” as to create an additional 50,000 high- for neighbours and builders. This would be has proved no less fraught with problems— quality and productive jobs. The whole historic and it would be a good thing.”

RICs_suppJE edit.indd 8 28/05/2021 10:08 ADVERTORIAL 9

CAN THE BRITISH HIGH STREET RISE AGAIN? The pandemic has brought us closer to home—and it might save our local businesses too

CLAUDIA CONWAY EDITOR, RICS PROPERTY JOURNAL

ven before the Covid-19 pandemic, we had become accustomed to images of shuttered local shops and reports of yet another well-known chain going into receivership, Ealong with declarations of “the death of the high street” in the face of convenient online retail. It may seem that the pandemic was to be the final nail in the coffin, yet some surprising new patterns have emerged that point to a possible local renaissance. While central areas, especially in large cities, suffered a collapse of visitors due to travel bans and a lack of office workers and tourists, many local communities have seen their shops become more valued by home-working residents, with significant numbers unlikely to be returning to a five-day week in the office. But local high streets also present a challenge—their ownership is patchwork, making a unified strategy for revival difficult. Business rates, bemoaned in many headlines, have also been a challenge. The long revaluation cycle can be punishing for retailers in areas

© STEPHEN BARNES/CONSTRUCTION/ALAMY© STEPHEN PHOTO STOCK that were doing well during the last valuation, but who are left with the same tax burden even when the local economy declines. In its role of supporting confident markets, RICS is calling on the government to reform the rate system in England and Wales by enabling greater flexibility and responsiveness. This will help both The high street has long been suffering, even before the pandemic—but could landlords and tenants. there be hope on the horizon? Landlords obviously have an important role. Amid the unprecedented crisis of Covid-19 many have adopted a far more permission. On the face of it, this makes sense, but concern has collaborative approach with those tenants who can’t pay the rent. been raised by RICS about the quality of these adapted buildings RICS was among the bodies endorsing the government’s “code of as homes. More homes are certainly required, but this must only practice for the commercial property sector,” first published in June be done with an eye to creating safe, high-quality places to live and 2020, which has encouraged constructive discussion between while maintaining a vibrant community. parties. After all, evicting a tenant for non-payment, then trying to Successful high streets create a certain balance. Offices are let out an empty unit in the current climate, is not necessarily the required not just as somewhere to work, but also to provide custom best course of action—especially if the struggling tenant’s business for local businesses. Community services such as libraries, health performs well under normal circumstances. centres and council services should be in places where they can To support the code, RICS has introduced a Commercial Rental easily be accessed by a wide range of people. This image of the high Independent Evaluation Service, which uses expert evaluators to street is associated with an increasing focus on “placemaking”— support both parties in finding a workable solution. One new idea is the idea that public spaces have a big impact on the people who the creation of “turnover rents,” where landlords receive an agreed use and pass through them. portion of their tenants’ income, rather than a monthly or quarterly Developers will be increasingly focused on creating spaces that rent—until things return to normal. This would be a far better can be used and appreciated by the local community, and that also outcome for both parties than the closure of a business and empty have environmental, social or cultural benefits. These could include premises. The collaborative approach is likely to continue even more greenery, better lighting and open spaces that discourage after the pandemic’s effects begin to fade—short tenancies having crime. They could also incorporate public art or performance areas. already become more normalised. Turnover rents represent another All of this plays into the concept of the “20-minute city,” where helpful mechanism for innovative landlords to take a chance on locals can find everything they need nearby with less need for car new tenants. journeys. RICS encourages this model—and is pushing for greater It would appear there is simply an oversupply of retail on central funding to improve local authority planning capacity and to Britain’s high streets, with supermarkets and the internet having enable these more sustainable town centres. taken the place of many separate local shops. In view of this and So perhaps it is better to talk about the “rebirth of the high the other British crisis—our ongoing housing shortage—it is not street” as a local hub: a place where landlords are flexible and surprising that many have called for conversion of shop space into try out new solutions; where chains, independent retailers and homes, and the government has obliged, allowing change of use for service providers can thrive; and where community services and shops as well as offices without requiring time-consuming planning workspaces are included as part of the mix.

RICs_suppJE edit.indd 9 28/05/2021 10:10 10 THE HOUSING DILEMMA PROSPECT | JULY 2021

IN NUMBERS: BRITAIN’S HOUSING Expensive and exclusive, ﬁgures show homeownership remains a remote prospect for many

DAVID McALLISTER PROSPECT

f all Britain’s national obsessions, housing must surely top the list. Policymakers face a barrage of the same questions: are we building enough houses? And are they cheap enough Ofor most people to afford? If you take a look at the bigger picture, you can see why we ask. Today Britain’s housing mix remains largely dominated by owner- occupied dwellings (as it has done for some time) with the starkest changes occurring in the types of rented accommodation. As the first chart illustrates, private renters come in as Britain’s second largest category of tenant, taking the spot council housing once had in the early 1990s. That the average house price has skyrocketed in the past 10 years will not surprise many of those cash-strapped private renters seeking to get a leg-up on the property ladder. Between 2010 and 2020 alone, as the second chart shows, the average annual house price increased by 39.5 per cent—which will make saving up for deposits that much harder. Meanwhile, as shown by the third chart, our track record of house building is mixed at best. After a surge during the immediate postwar period, house building has generally been on the decline for the better half of a century; even a more recent uptick has yet to make up for a steeper decline that took place in the early 2000s. Overall today’s housing landscape is riddled with financial and generational problems for potential homeowners, with few clear solutions in sight. 1. WHAT’S IN THE MIX? The number of private renters in 2017 (seen here at 19 per cent) mirrors the number of those in council housing in 1991, with the inverse also holding true (with 22 per cent in council housing in 1991, compared to 7 per cent in 2017). In the same period, the proportion of owner-occupied dwellings has dipped slightly (to 63 per cent, down from 66 per cent in 1991), but otherwise has remained relatively steady across the years. Rather than fulfilling dreams of homeownership, it seems as though the legacy of Right to Buy has been that many homes once provided by the state are now increasingly put up for private profit.

Owner-occupied

Rented privately

Rented from housing association Rented from local authority (social housing)

SOURCES: CHART 1, “DWELLING STOCK: BY TENURE” PUBLISHED MAY 2019 BY GOV.UK; CHART 2, UK HOUSE PRICE INDEX, UK LAND REGISTRY; CHART 3, HOUSE BUILDING, UK: PERMANENT Other public dwellings DWELLINGS STARTED AND COMPLETED, PUBLISHED MARCH 2021 BY THE ONS

RICs_suppJE edit.indd 10 28/05/2021 10:11 JULY 2021 | PROSPECT THE HOUSING DILEMMA 11

2. ROCKETING PRICES House prices have been on a dramatic rise, putting homeownership out of reach for many.

250

200

150

100

50 ANNUAL AVERAGE HOUSE PRICE (£’000) ANNUAL AVERAGE

0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

3.BUILDING BETTER—OR AT ALL? In the face of soaring demand, has the government built enough new homes? In the postwar period its track record is mixed.

450

400

350

300

250

200

150 HOUSES BUILT (’000 UNITS) HOUSES BUILT 100

0 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

RICs_suppJE edit.indd 11 28/05/2021 10:11 12 THE HOUSING DILEMMA PROSPECT | JULY 2021

FUTURE GAZING: WHAT WILL THE REINVENTION OF RETAIL LOOK LIKE? Even with the successful rollout of vaccines seeming to oﬀer a glimpse of a post-Covid future, intelligent retailers know that there will never be a return to “normal” TIM DENISON HEAD OF ANALYTICS AND INSIGHT AT IPSOS

he UK high street of June 2021 seems likely to Central London locations suffered the worst footfall be similar to the high street of January 2020. comparisons, with the City of London down 58.8 per Overall, talking to both consumers and retailers, cent on the same period in 2019. The West End was Tthe mood feels positive. Everyone is looking down 45.6 per cent. Aside from central London, other forward to some semblance of “normality” and ongoing places hardest hit included Oxford (down 41.9 per cent), stability after the ructions of Covid. That stability is York (41.5 per cent) and Cambridge (37.3 per cent)— beginning to show itself. Some non-essential shops on these are notably all important tourist destinations. the high street have been open since April. People are still nervous about travelling on public Backed up with news of the mass vaccination transport and shopping in busy retail hubs. Furthermore, rollout and the development of rapid tests, this time because most commuters have not yet returned to their there’s a feeling that we might have had the last of the city centre offices, shops there are really struggling with lockdowns. Before non-essential shops and hospitality much lower footfall, despite projects such as the Oxford opened, ONS figures showed that retail spending was Street mound—a new, 25m-high feature by Marble Arch. high, growing by 5.4 per cent in March 2021. People were rushing to buy new clothes, shoes and accessories FUTURE CHALLENGES online. This pent-up demand is going to give a boost to There are clearly lots of remaining challenges for retail sales in the coming months. retailers, with differing levels of customer confidence Even so, retailers know that there will never be a return across different communities and cohorts. In addition, to “normal.” Consumer expectations may have shifted the economy is undergoing wider cultural shifts. There permanently, while wider social and cultural changes is a movement away from conspicuous consumption will affect everything from retail to work and family life. and towards ethical sourcing. The consequences of this The legacy of Covid-19 will remain imprinted on the change alone will be profound for the retail sector. economy far beyond 2021. When it comes to the lasting However, the outlook is still good if businesses act consequences for retail we are already beginning to see smart. According to Deloitte, UK consumer confidence what those might be. levels rose from 6 per cent in the last quarter of 2020 to 11 per cent overall in the first quarter of 2021. This A STRONG RE-OPENING is mirrored globally. Ipsos’s Global Consumer Confidence Back in December 2020, the KPMG/Ipsos retail think Index in March rose to 45.5, which is just three points tank predicted that, despite all the challenges, many below its reading in March 2020, shortly before the people would get out and spend when the shops declaration of Covid-19 as a pandemic. reopened in 2021. The pre-opening figures from March were promising, but the real picture will only become clear now that the high street has begun to open in full. “ UK CUSTOMERS ARE READY TO Early figures from the Ipsos Retail Recovery Index SHOP. BUT HOW CAN RETAILERS show that, during 2021’s first week after re-opening, CREATE A COMFORTABLE footfall was down by 28.9 per cent on its 2019 level. One of the central issues that will dominate the EXPERIENCE IN THEIR BRICKS future of retail is the question of where people choose AND MORTAR STORES?” to shop—will they opt for the traditional retail zones? Or will they go elsewhere? Our figures show that Alongside consumer confidence, retailers must take former shopping hotspots in city centres including into account customer preferences, and public confidence Birmingham, London and Manchester weren’t the in the idea that society can return to something similar to fastest to recover in the opening week. Instead, smaller, pre-pandemic life. People are divided on that question. local high streets thrived as Worcester, Romford In a worldwide Ipsos poll last year, the majority of and Derby bounced back the fastest. Shoppers respondents in 12 out of 14 major countries said that have re-discovered their connection to their local if businesses are allowed to reopen, they would still be neighbourhood. They seem to be attracted to the value nervous about leaving their homes. of local provenance and the convenience of local stores Then there is the question of people’s willingness to (especially if working from home). Above all this, there spend. While consumers have certainly missed their retail is the safety issue. Shopping close to home is seen as therapy, they have also missed out on other things— somehow safer. socialising and leisure activites. On the one hand the

RICs_suppJE edit.indd 12 28/05/2021 10:12 JULY 2021 | PROSPECT THE HOUSING DILEMMA 13 © NICK MASLEN/ALAMYPHOTO STOCK

With remote household savings ratio looks favourable for the high shopping experience. Customers are now used to workers street, but on the other, the fact that savings growth has searching stock levels in an instant online. In this world, rediscovering been highest among the wealthier and elderly could you can’t leave shoppers to browse the rails only to find their local indicate that retail will fare worse. the item is gone. The question is how you can recreate neighbourhoods, One last trend to mention is the growing expectation the smooth and speedy online experience in a shop. it is smaller, on the part of customers that they can have what they Retailers will be looking to capitalise on the success more local high want in an instant. According to Google, in the early of “click and collect” over lockdown. They will need to streets—like in months of the pandemic, searches by Americans ensure that spaces are set up in-store where customers Worcester—that for the terms “who has” and “in stock” were up over can pick up their purchases, with the right digital look set to 8,000 per cent year on year. This offers an insight into infrastructure in place to provide a smooth transaction. recover fastest a behavioural shift that retailers will have to incorporate Building on this, we may now see embedded technology into their thinking when creating the digital shopping used more widely to provide more information, such as experience that is needed after Covid-19. QR codes or even motion detectors that can offer new and exciting experiences. RETAIL’S RESPONSE Of course, these investments shouldn’t be limited to Despite the advances in online shopping, retailers existing flagship stores. With city centre footfall currently shouldn’t forget the emotional experience that in-store in the doldrums, now more than ever it’s crucial to pay visits can provide. Trying on a wedding dress, choosing attention to localised trends. The retail industry must decorations for a first home or even simply meeting get used to the idea that it now operates at a more up with friends are all important moments for the local level. consumer, and these can only take place in the outside The UK high street of today may feel similar to world. Generally, UK customers are primed and ready that of last year, but compare it to 2019 and there are to shop, but how can retailers create a comfortable and stark differences. Familiar brands such as Topshop relevant experience in their bricks and mortar stores? and Debenhams have disappeared completely. PwC, Even with the mass vaccination programme, the business services firm, has identified 29 major sanitisation expectations and restricted occupancy levels restructuring plans by retailers, hospitality, leisure and will remain in place for the foreseeable future. Ignoring other consumer-based companies. The latest data from this guidance not only puts stores at risk of hefty fines, the British Retail Consortium reveals that one in seven but could see customer confidence dip, hurting the shops lie empty after lockdown. reputation of a brand. Retailers will have to invest in However, shoppers will vote with their feet and there’s reliable fixes—such as bringing in accredited auditors to clearly a strong urge to get back out to the retail areas they help keep safety standards high in the long term. once knew—but the subtle differences must be kept front Technology use by the retail sector has skyrocketed of mind as a new future emerges for the sector. One thing during the pandemic and it plays an important role we can be sure of is that both the great British shopper and in ensuring Covid-19 safety by monitoring in-store British retailers are resilient animals and will build the new numbers. It also provides an efficient and streamlined future for shopping together.

RICs_suppJE edit.indd 13 28/05/2021 10:13 14 THE HOUSING DILEMMA PROSPECT | JULY 2021

LESSONS FROM GRENFELL Has enough been done by the government on safety since the disaster and if not, why not?

GILL KERNICK AUTHOR AND FORMER RESIDENT OF GRENFELL TOWER

s we approach the fourth anniversary of the Grenfell Tower a leaseholder facing a £40,000 bill and potential bankruptcy. The fire, the question of whether “enough has been done” will aide suggested that the leaseholder should contact the Samaritans likely be played out in the usual rounds of political point for help with feelings of distress or despair. It constrasts starkly with Ascoring. But any reflection about our response needs to the £58,000 spent on the refurbishment of the prime minister’s flat. start at the base of the tower. Other critics will question why four years after Grenfell, Grenfell revealed systemic issues with building safety. Estimates “estimates” are all we have. They may ask why, in this digital age, are that resolving all fire safety issues in Britain that arise from all fire risk assessment data (at least for public properties) hasn’t dangerous cladding, missing cavity barriers and non-compliant fire- been systematically collated and analysed—why a risk-based doors will cost £50bn. The government ordered the removal of the approach to prioritising the replacement of dangerous cladding type of cladding found on Grenfell from 469 high-rise residential hasn’t been adopted. buildings. There are estimates that a further 1,700 high-rise and These differing perspectives recently played out in the ping- 28,000 medium-rise buildings have other types of cladding that also pong match between the Lords and the House of Commons in a need to be removed. In 2020, 81 high-rise buildings had their ACM failed attempt to protect leaseholders from liability for the costs of cladding work completed. Even at a rate of 100 buildings a year, it historic building failures. But let’s step back. will take 17 years to remove and replace the cladding on high-rise buildings alone. WHAT IS ENOUGH? The government will spin what it has done: the £5.1bn for the Nasa’s Space Shuttle Challenger disaster occurred on its 10th removal of cladding; the independent review of building and fire launch. The issue with the Shuttle’s defective O-rings had been safety regulations, the ban on combustible materials, the building known about since the second launch. The Nobel Prize-winning and fire safety bills and the establishment of two new regulators. physicist Richard Feynman led the investigation into the Challenger Those living in unsafe buildings will counter with their own lists, disaster. He said: “When it comes to risk, though, we have just including that up to 11m people could be impacted by life-altering proved a long-term version of Murphy’s Law—what can go wrong, insurance and risk mitigation costs; that 23 per cent of these people will go wrong eventually. Just give it time... Nature cannot be fooled.” have reported having had suicidal thoughts; and that 111 high-rise After such a tragedy and with hindsight we inevitably find that buildings have yet to have ACM cladding removed. we didn’t do enough. If we are serious about preventing catastrophic The atmosphere has not been improved by the Secretary of State events, we need to turn hindsight into foresight and governments for Housing, Communities and Local Government’s aide’s letter to need to be willing to stand accused of being over-cautious.

RICs_suppJE edit.indd 14 28/05/2021 10:14 JULY 2021 | PROSPECT THE HOUSING DILEMMA 15

Safety is the outcome of a complex socio-technical system to regulations and fix specific issues such as cladding, but we will where success is measured by the absence of anything happening. not deal with systemic issues—the underlying conditions that will Low probability, high consequence events are difficult to predict, incubate the next big problem. as current performance is not an indicator of future performance. So, preventing disasters demands searching for vulnerabilities and practising chronic unease—imagining and mitigating against the “ SAFETY IS THE OUTCOME OF A worst thing that could go wrong, genuinely learning from near- COMPLEX SOCIO-TECHNICAL SYSTEM misses and other disasters. WHERE SUCCESS IS MEASURED BY In the case of Grenfell there is no evidence that anyone was searching for vulnerabilities—and signs that multiple opportunities THE ABSENCE OF THINGS HAPPENING” to learn were ignored, most starkly the 2009 Lakanal House fire (also in London) in which six people were killed. The local council What progress has been made since Grenfell in moving beyond had refurbished the building, wrapping it in flammable cladding and our obsession with blame? What has been done about the revolving installing false ceilings. Rather than containing fire for the required door between government and industry, and the role of lobbying? We hour, the blaze spread beyond the compartment of origin in four have seen these issues play out over and over again with Grenfell, minutes. The coroner, Frances Kirkham, recommended that the fire with Covid-19, and now with the Greensill saga. safety guidance in Approved Document B be reviewed—particularly History tells us that relying solely on government to deal with these regarding the spread of fire over external facades—and that the “stay issues is a flawed strategy. Change is not up to government alone, it’s put advice” be reviewed. The recommendations were ignored. up to all of us. It could be said that we deserve the government we I have seen no evidence that the culture which led to the Lakanal get. Have we all done enough? House fire has changed, or that the lessons were learned. Other questions we must confront are: The author of the post-Grenfell Independent Review of Building Regulations and Fire Safety, Judith Hackett, has repeatedly called • Have organisations practiced chronic unease? Do they value the out the race-to-the-bottom culture and lack of leadership after the tacit knowledge of those at the frontline, ie residents? Grenfell fire. There has been little systemic change and, as nature • Has the media given voice to the voiceless? Has it covered cannot be fooled, it is only a matter of time before we experience issues systemically, or in a sensationalist, piecemeal fashion? another fatal catastrophic event that could have been foreseen. • Have the insightful reports by think tanks and academic institutions led to any change? SYSTEMIC CHANGE… FROM “THEM” TO “US” • Has the government restored trust? Phase 2 of the Grenfell Inquiry continues to reveal the systemic • Have communities and citizens campaigned and fought failings that led to 72 deaths. We have seen a merry-go-round of for change? buck-passing, a chaotic supply chain, the gaming of testing by product manufacturers, political lobbying and the failure to treat If a multi-fatality fire happened tomorrow, would we be able residents with “respect, humanity and empathy” (in the words of to look in the eyes of the families whose loved ones died and say Eddie Daffarn, Grenfell survivor). “I did everything I could to prevent this”? The Grenfell-effected My book Catastrophe and Systemic Change was born of the communities and citizens tirelessly campaigning for change can say realisation that, after Grenfell, we will make piecemeal changes “yes.” But as for the rest of us—we should hang our heads in shame. © GUY WILLIAM, SHUTTERSTOCK © GUY WILLIAM,

RICs_suppJE edit.indd 15 28/05/2021 10:15 OCTOBER 2017

The new world Data as of security Infrastructure

The new utility ALAN WILSON How can Britain avoid a security disaster? Who beneﬁts from smart cities? A NEW WORLD DUNCAN WELDON ROBERT FRY Prospect’s series The transport plan The challenge of turning OF WORK ANDREW ADONIS data into intelligence HARRIET ELLIS HOW TO FUTURE-PROOF BRITAIN A time to disrupt Anne Milton ANDREW TYLER WHAT POLITICIANS MUST DO Natalie Perera TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY CHILDREN of focused reports Chi Onwurah

Supported by In association with In association with and events DECEMBER 2018

Security supp.indd 1 16/10/2017 16:02 skills.indd 1 02/11/2018 15:01 Data supp.indd 1 01/09/2017 15:06 Comment, analysis

Finance report: and debate on the THE ROAD How to CYBER TO RECOVERY beat infl ation Escaping the Covid trap for a RESILIENCE brighter fi nancial future How to guard against the great security threat of the 21st century Infl ation can fool us all THE POST-COVID policies affecting ANDY DAVIS RECOVERY NATO WILL DEFEND ITSELF VICKY PRYCE Cryptocurrency—do your homework JENS STOLTENBERG RUTH JACKSON BUILDING BETTER, THE AGE OF CYBER WARFARE GREENER PENSIONS The ultimate safe haven ALEX DEAN GUY OPPERMAN PAUL WALLACE SECURING BRITAIN’S NETWORKS HOW INVESTING CAN NIGEL ADAMS HELP THE PLANET RUTH JACKSON THE FAKE NEWS THREAT all of us KARIN VON HIPPEL AND JONATHAN EYAL

OCTOBER 2019 | IN ASSOCIATION WITH MAY 2021 | IN ASSOCIATION WITH

In association with

MARCH 2018

Cyber Security.indd 1 23/08/2019 15:40 finance_supp_v2.indd 1 19/03/2021 15:27

Britain’s giant The future CLEARING THE SHOCK leap into space BUILDING of transport FOR THE THE AIR OF THE NEW If the UK leaves Galileo it will How to tackle air pollution What can science do cost the EU billions FUTURE and grow the green economy SAM GYIMAH for Britain? How can Britain’s housing Vive la Révolution! Building a Cornish spaceport industry cater for everyone? CHRIS GRAYLING MILES CARDEN Meet the controller INTRODUCING LONDON’S ULTRA Our future is in the stars JOHN ARMITT INTERVIEWED LOW EMISSION ZONE THE SCIENCE OF LIFE JOHN MATHER SADIQ KHAN NADHIM ZAHAWI BUILDING MORE HOMES IS MY It’s time for Britain to plug in NUMBER ONE PRIORITY GLORIA ESPOSITO A FUTURE BEYOND OIL BRITAIN AND THE FUTURE ROBERT JENRICK MP SPEAKS TO JAY ELWES BRYONY WORTHINGTON MARK WALPORT WE MUST BUILD GREENER HOMES GLOBAL PROBLEMS DEMOCRATISING SCIENCE MIKE HEDGES NEED GLOBAL SOLUTIONS CHI ONWURAH GIVE COUNCILS THE POWERS THEY KARMENU VELLA NEED TO BUILD EFFECTIVELY DAVID RENARD

NOVEMBER 2019 | IN ASSOCIATION WITH MARCH 2020 | IN ASSOCIATION WITH JULY 2019 | IN ASSOCIATION WITH In association with

In association with

SEPTEMBER 2018 JULY 2018

Innovation.indd 1 27/09/2019 16:18 space.indd 1 08/06/2018 15:34 Housing.indd 1 23/01/2020 14:57 Clean Air.indd 1 31/05/2019 16:11

Brexit Britain: ALL ABOUT THE FUTURE How to make The Future of TOWNS Harnessing hope in Britain’s OF AID Industry communities Global Britain Building on a success story Banking on Making the most of what we have HOW THE UK LEADS THE WAY GREG CLARK a reality MINISTER WENDY MORTON The UK’s limited options UBI COULD TRANSFORM AID MIRIAM GONZALEZ TRISTAN McCONNELL change “We are instinctively a free trading nation” Globalisation must work for people, HARD TIMES IN OLDHAM ASSESSING OUR IMPACT JENNIFER WILLIAMS Liam Fox speaks to Alex Dean not vice-versa SARAH CHAMPION FRANCES O’GRADY Bring on the challenger banks Protect workers—and the climate TRICKLE-UP ECONOMICS TED HOWARD John Glen Barry Gardiner What Open Banking could do for you COMMUNITY BEFORE PARTY Andy Davis Perils of partnership with China LISA NANDY AND BEN BRADLEY Isabel Hilton What can technology do? Anne Pieckielon

In association with In association with AUGUST / SEPTEMBER 2019 JULY 2020 | IN ASSOCIATION WITH IN ASSOCIATION WITH

In association with MAY 2019 JANUARY 2018 NOVEMBER 2018

Global Britain.indd 1 22/03/2019 15:46 Brexit and Ind. Strat_v2.indd 1 01/12/2017 14:47 JRF.indd 1 05/07/2019 11:32 Financial inclusion.indd 1 17/09/2018 10:40

AUGUST 2017

The future THE RULE OF LAW of energy Safeguarding the UK’s legal excellence To discuss partnering, or for more

Rise of the renewables ED DAVEY A LEGACY OF 800 YEARS ROBERT BUCKLAND MP Demand side, it’s all about ﬂ exibility JON BERNSTEIN SAVE JUDICIAL REVIEW DAVID LAMMY MP information on Prospect’s wide programme Good ideas need great leaders GEERT VAN DE WOUW BATTLING THE COURTS BACKLOG AMANDA PINTO INTERVIEWED BY EMILY LAWFORD of activity, email [email protected]

JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2021 | KINDLY SUPPORTED BY

Supported by

Energy supp.indd 1 07/07/2017 11:56 law_supp_v3.indd 1 30/11/2020 09:40

RICs_suppJE edit.indd 16 28/05/2021 10:16 OCTOBER 2017

The new world Data as of security Infrastructure

Supported by In association with In association with and events DECEMBER 2018

Security supp.indd 1 16/10/2017 16:02 skills.indd 1 02/11/2018 15:01 Data supp.indd 1 01/09/2017 15:06 Comment, analysis

OCTOBER 2019 | IN ASSOCIATION WITH MAY 2021 | IN ASSOCIATION WITH

In association with

MARCH 2018

Cyber Security.indd 1 23/08/2019 15:40 finance_supp_v2.indd 1 19/03/2021 15:27

NOVEMBER 2019 | IN ASSOCIATION WITH MARCH 2020 | IN ASSOCIATION WITH JULY 2019 | IN ASSOCIATION WITH In association with

In association with

SEPTEMBER 2018 JULY 2018

Innovation.indd 1 27/09/2019 16:18 space.indd 1 08/06/2018 15:34 Housing.indd 1 23/01/2020 14:57 Clean Air.indd 1 31/05/2019 16:11

In association with In association with AUGUST / SEPTEMBER 2019 JULY 2020 | IN ASSOCIATION WITH IN ASSOCIATION WITH

In association with MAY 2019 JANUARY 2018 NOVEMBER 2018

Global Britain.indd 1 22/03/2019 15:46 Brexit and Ind. Strat_v2.indd 1 01/12/2017 14:47 JRF.indd 1 05/07/2019 11:32 Financial inclusion.indd 1 17/09/2018 10:40

AUGUST 2017

The future THE RULE OF LAW of energy Safeguarding the UK’s legal excellence To discuss partnering, or for more

JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2021 | KINDLY SUPPORTED BY

Supported by

Energy supp.indd 1 07/07/2017 11:56 law_supp_v3.indd 1 30/11/2020 09:40

RICs_suppJE edit.indd 17 28/05/2021 10:17 JULY 2021 | IN ASSOCIATION WITH

RICs_suppJE edit.indd 18 28/05/2021 10:17