Nick Clegg MP prof VERNON BOGdanor on Brexit, Trump and on how populist politics has the threat to liberalism fuelled a surge in nationalism Centre Write

The end of the establishment?

Summer 2016 | 1 chris skidmore mp | philip collins | nusr at ghani mp | the rt hon al an milburn Social reform Bright Blue is generating fresh thinking about the purpose, design and financing of the UK’s education and welfare systems to boost life chances and national prosperity. To compete in the global race, Britain needs to significantly improve the skills of its workforce and broaden access to high quality academic and vocational education. As the economy becomes more globalised, competitive and automated, Britain’s social security system also needs revamping to improve its effectiveness and popularity. Green conservatism Bright Blue is a leading centre-right voice devising and promoting policies that can cost-effectively safeguard the environment at the same as strengthening the economy. We produce rigorous analysis and fresh policy ideas to help the UK solve the ‘energy trilemma’ of achieving decarbonisation, affordable energy and security of supply. In particular, our work focuses on key policy areas such as air pollution, protecting the natural environment, the post-coal energy mix, energy efficiency, climate finance and investment, and international development. Human rights Human rights now have a bad reputation among the public, especially conservatives. But human rights are vital. They protect individual freedom, especially from an overreaching state. Our work explores how human rights can be better understood and enhanced in the UK and abroad, with a particular focus on: the contents of the forthcoming British Bill of Rights; the role of human rights in British foreign policy; and how to tackle racial, gender, sexual, disability and religious discrimination. Integrated Britain Immigration, on the whole, has been good for Britain, especially our economy. But it brings pressures, especially to low-skilled workers and certain communities. Our work devises ideas to ensure that the benefits of immigration are maximised and the challenges minimised. One such challenge is the integration of people from different social and economic backgrounds, which yields significant private and public benefits. Reforming institutions to encourage greater social mixing is particularly important for building a more integrated Britain. research themes EDITORIAL

Contents Contributors

4 Editor’s letter 29 The world is better than you think professor tim bale is a Professor of Politics Laura Round Johan Norberg at Queen Mary University of London diane banks is a literary agent and a Director’s note 5 31 Is the power in the members or the non-executive director of Bright Blue Ryan Shorthouse money? Professor Tim Bale professor vernon bogdanor The demise of mainstream media cbe is professor of government 33 at King’s College London breaking or remaking elitism? Ros Taylor Ensuring a level playing field of liam booth-smith is the Chief 6 Executive at Localis opportunity The Rt Hon Alan Milburn bright blue politics the rt hon nick clegg mp is 8 Establishment in transition 34 Why I’m a Bright Blue MP former Deputy Prime Minister Philip Collins Nusrat Ghani MP dr sharon coen is a Senior Lecturer in Why grammars aren’t the route to Media Psychology at University of Salford 9 Trust thy neighbour social mobility The Rt Hon David Laws 35 philip collins is a columnist and James Dobson chief leader writer for The Times 11 Tomorrow belongs to me? Rebels with a cause proffesor john curtice is a Professor James Kingston 36 of Politics at Strathclyde University Sam Hall james dobson is a researcher at Bright Blue moving away from the centre 37 Bright Blue research update the rt hon mark field mp is the Nigel Fletcher Vice-Chair of the Conservative Party 13 The resurrection of radical populism? Professor Vernon Bogdanor nigel fletcher is the Head of brexit corner - Research at Bright Blue 15 Sensationalism and the news the road to article 50 nusrat ghani mp is a member of the Dr Sharon Coen 39 Towards a post-Brexit lose-lose Home Affairs Select Committee 16 Trump: from TV-star to President situation Anne Mulder professor jonathan grant is Dr Clodagh Harrington the Director of the Policy Institute 40 Maintaining good relations with our at King’s College London 18 The end of the two-party system? European allies The Rt Hon Mark Field MP dr clodagh harrington is a Professor John Curtice Senior Lecturer of American politics 41 Soon we will be free at De Montfort University 19 Feelings over fact, sentiment over Jonathan Isaby statement Charlotte Henry sam hall is a researcher at Bright Blue 42 Friends without benefits charlotte henry is a member of Bright Blue the interview Joe Slater william humphries is an Associate 20 The Centre Write interview: 44 Keeping close Fellow of Bright Blue The Rt Hon Nick Clegg MP Charles Tannock MEP jonathan isaby is the Editor of Brexit Central a changing electorate books and arts andrea jenkyns mp is a member of the Exiting the European 24 A democracy that works for everyone 46 Kind of Blue: A Political Memoir Union Select Committee Chris Skidmore MP (Ken Clarke) Zac Spiro james kingston is a member of Bright Blue, entrepreneur and activist 25 What have experts ever done for us? 47 2016: The year in political books Professor Jonathan Grant Diane Banks the rt hon david laws is Executive Chairman of the Education Policy Institute 27 In defence of elitism 49 Exhibition: Abstract Expressionism the rt hon alan milburn is Liam Booth-Smith William Humphries Chair of the UK Government’s Social Mobility Commission 28 We must trust the people Order, Order! The Rise and Fall of 50 anne mulder European Affairs Andrea Jenkyns MP Political Drinking (Ben Wright) Spokesman for the VVD, the centre- Keith Tomlinson right Liberal Party in the Netherlands johan norberg is a Swedish author and historian Bright Blue Director: Ryan Shorthouse chris skidmore mp is Minister Chair: Matthew d’Ancona for the Constitution Bright Blue is an independent think Board of Directors: Rachel Johnson, joe slater is a student and the tank and pressure group for liberal Alexandra Jezeph, Diane Banks & Phil Clarke winner of The Tamworth Prize conservatism. zac spiro is a member of Bright Blue Editor: Laura Round Assistant Editor: Alexander King dr charles tannock mep is the Conservative MEP for London www.brightblue.org.uk ros taylor is the Managing Printers: PPC, www.ppcbristol.co.uk Director of LSE Brexit Designer: Eleanor Hyland-Stanbrook, keith tomlinson is an economic eleanorhylandstanbrook.com and investment researcher

laura round is the Editor of Centre Write and Communications Editor’s letter Manager at Bright Blue

2016 has been a political whirlwind: Brexit left political declared ‘post-truth’ to be their word of 2016. Bright Blue commentators stunned. The politically motivated murder of Jo member Charlotte Henry explains why liberals have found Cox MP shocked the nation. Matteo Renzi has stood down as themselves at a disadvantage in this post-truth era (p.19) Italian Prime Minister after losing a constitutional referendum. whilst Professor Jonathan Grant (p.25) highlights the need And the controversial Donald Trump was elected the next President for experts and facts. Andrea Jenkyns MP (p.28) tells us of the United States. Politics as we know it (or knew it) is changing. why it’s important politicians should say what they think Over the past year, populism and anti-establishment sentiment and believe, even if that goes against popular opinion. has flourished around the world and illiberal forces are on the What is behind these trends? Academic Dr Clodagh Harrington rise. On the continent the populist right continues to gain support (p.16) discusses the remarkable turn of events in America and with many far-right parties leading in the polls. These movements explains how Donald Trump managed to win the support of promote nativism and threaten liberal values and institutions. the disenfranchised. The Government’s social mobility tsar Deep discontent with the status quo has been expressed Alan Milburn (p.6) tells us that whole sections of society feel through the voting booth. Perhaps, with the benefit of they aren’t getting a fair chance to succeed and argues we need hindsight, we should not have been surprised. Parts of society new approaches to improving social mobility. And, by the way, have felt left behind by globalisation and people face genuine Former Minister for Schools David Laws (p.9) demonstrates challenges as a result of technological and economic upheaval. that more grammar schools are not the answer to this. In a political arena where emotion trumps rationality, and fear With all this hostility towards the ‘elites’, how do we encourage trumps facts, liberalism seems to have become a scapegoat. people to be involved in the political process? Professor Tim But instead of just accepting bigotry and discarding liberal Bale (p.31) explores recent trends in political party membership, values, we need more sophisticated policy-making and a and the Minister for the Constitution, Chris Skidmore MP, smarter role for the state if we are to respond effectively. (p.24) lays out the Government’s plans for increased voter It is worrying to witness the trend of increasing distrust engagement. There is a lot of concern about the young not in members of the ‘establishment’. Seeing how politicians, being engaged in politics, and Bright Blue member James judges and other public servants are now frequently subjected Kingston (p.11) explores why millennials are disaffected. to contemptuous abuse online and in print, one wonders Amid all this negativity, there is a silver lining. Swedish author why anyone would ever want to enter public service. A and historian Johan Norberg (p.29) assures us the world is concern must be that this anti-establishment rhetoric will better than most think and that we are witnessing the greatest deter many people from trying to reach top positions. In a ever improvement in living standards. He cites the lack of meritocratic democracy everyone should be able to aspire recognition of this fact as a cause of the rise in nativism and to join the establishment, and be proud of doing so. populism that is threatening to undermine our progress. In this edition of Centre Write, we explore this rise in anti- With the UK’s departure from the EU likely to be at the top of establishment politics. Professor Vernon Bogdanor (p.13) the political agenda for at least two years to come, we have explores whether we have seen a resurrection of radical decided to introduce a special ‘Brexit corner’ to this magazine. populism. Amidst the rise of anti-elitism, Philip Collins In this edition, the Dutch MP Anne Mulder, European (p.8) makes the point that there will always be an ‘elite’ in Affairs spokesman for the Dutch Liberal Party, tells us why representative democracies. Liam Booth-Smith (p.27) defends the Netherlands is likely to suffer more from a Brexit than elites by arguing we cannot have a meritocracy without elitism. most other EU countries and how he fears the UK does not Against this backdrop, we interview the former Deputy have a negotiating strategy (p.39). Mark Field MP (p.40) Prime Minister Nick Clegg MP (p.20). He argues that the writes on the importance of strengthening relations with heart is a stronger organ than the brain, and that liberals our European allies, whilst Jonathan Isaby puts forward need to start to learn how to appeal to emotions. a positive case for leaving the single market (p.41). Shortly after the US presidential election, Donald Trump I hope this edition of Centre Write can help shed some light supporter and CNN commentator Scottie Nell Hughes on the dramatic changes and trends we have witnessed. If the last declared the end of facts. The Oxford English Dictionary year holds any lessons for 2017, it’s to expect the unexpected. •

4 | Centre Write Looking at the datasets on different Surprisingly and disappointingly, Director’s note desiderata – educational attainment, those on the Right have also joined the levels of health, living standards, chorus against the establishment. A Ryan Shorthouse reduced criminality, lower divorce disconnected and devious elite is blamed rates, reduced discrimination, job for imposing mass immigration, social opportunities, reduced worklessness liberalism and political correctness on ryan shorthouse is the and the list really does go on – there has society. But this notion that society has Director of Bright Blue been over several decades significant simply become an elite and a people, improvements for the majority of people each with unified views and interests, in this country and across the world. is a Marxist myth. Every day, for What are the causes of the political Ignore the artificial anger of some example, there are newspaper stories of earthquakes – particularly Brexit and politicians, commentators and virtue- politicians disagreeing with one another. Trump - in the West this year? signallers on social media: most Vigorous debate and disagreement Some say it’s the economy, stupid. people in this country are fairly or are essential ingredients and signs People have finally had enough after very happy with their lives. “You’re of a healthy democracy. But it is years of little or no growth in their real out-of-touch”, they howl, “Get out now commonplace to hear senior incomes. And, especially after the global of London and go and listen to some decision makers and opinion formers financial crisis in the late noughties, an real people”. Well, I can’t speak to indulge in conspiracy theories that elite that purportedly caused it seems everyone. But the folks at the Office question the very trustworthiness, to have sailed on while everybody for National Statistics speak to an awful intentions and legitimacy of people in else has suffered. Others look to lot of people each year, in their annual fundamental institutions - institutions unwanted cultural changes, specifically survey on personal wellbeing, and most such as parliament, the independent unprecedented levels of immigration. Brits – even those in the least affluent judiciary, businesses and banks that But ideas and narratives areas – say they are generally happy have taken decades to build and which influence and inspire people too. A with the state of their lives. Actually, enhance our peace and prosperity. common and winning one is anti- a recent study has found that across Of course there are bad eggs who establishmentarianism: the scapegoating 40 developed countries, an average of sometimes reach the top of these of senior and successful people – 86% of the population say they are. institutions. But the clear majority of especially politicians, financiers and These liberal, democratic and capitalist them are good, hard-working people. journalists - for coming together and societies are hardly dystopian, are Indiscriminately criticising them is, pulling strings that cause social ills. they? And, as history teaches us, frankly, the politics of nihilism and Some on the Left have long argued let’s just remember how lucky we envy. The Right should be celebrating this. Jeremy Corbyn has said that are to not live in alternative political rather than condemning them, and those who voted Brexit were rejecting systems; how grateful we should fighting and finding ways for those from a “broken economic model” of be to past generations who fought a more diverse range of backgrounds “neoliberalism” that is enforced by and for the society we now enjoy. to become part of the elite. only benefits the rich. Ask yourself: Yes, without doubt, there are too many Beware of those who seek to blame is it really the case that a majority people who are genuinely struggling in complex and stubborn problems on of the electorate, who only a year our society and deserve more support. particular social groups - rich or poor; before voted in a General Election for But this requires a smarter state seeking strong or weak. We should reject such continued austerity, suddenly felt so to reduce hardship, not a political ugly and divisive identity politics. angry with their lives and ‘the system’ revolution based on nothing but rousing Instead, now more than ever, the that they also voted to leave the EU? rhetoric and abstract principles. The Right needs to defend liberal, open, Let’s face it: for years, the status quo Left are wrong about capitalism. It democratic and meritocratic values in public attitudes has been against does not automatically foster human and institutions. And work harder the EU. The campaign to stay in the greed, abuse and exploitation; when to ensure more people, including EU was lost before it even started. such vices exist, they can be - and those who are vulnerable and ‘just This notion that everyone but indeed have been - mitigated by about managing’, are benefitting from the elite is losing out is fantastical. democratic and political power. such values and institutions. •

Winter 2016 | 5 breaking or remaking elitism?

Ensuring a level playing field of opportunity The Rt Hon Alan Milburn proposes new approaches to improving social mobility in Britain

the rt hon alan or falling. Only one in ten low-paid laid bare. The best way of doing so is milburn is Chair of the workers at the start of the last decade by restarting Britain’s social mobility UK Government’s Social had escaped the low pay trap by the end. engine. Higher social mobility can Mobility Commission Whole tracts of Britain feel left behind. be a rallying point to prove that Whole sections of society feel they are modern capitalist economies like our not getting a fair chance to succeed. own are capable of creating better, Britain’s social mobility problem, for The history of our continent tells fairer and more inclusive societies. this generation of young people in us that when the majority feels they particular, is getting worse, not better. are losing unfairly while a minority Whole sections of society The Social Mobility Commission’s State gain unfairly, things can turn ugly. feel they are not getting a of the Nation 2016 report highlights Across the world political populism, fair chance to succeed that those born in the 1980s are the of Right and Left, is on the march. first post-war cohort not to start their Attitudes both to wealth and poverty Achieving that, and making Britain working years with higher incomes than are changing fast. So too are public feel one again, will need a new way of their immediate predecessors. Home attitudes towards immigration - and not approaching social mobility. Broadly ownership, the aspiration of successive necessarily for the better. The public there have been two traditional generations of ordinary people, is in sharp mood is sour, and decision-makers schools of thought - one has focused decline, especially among the young. The have been far too slow to respond to on improving life chances for the twentieth century expectation that each the fact that untrammelled wealth for very poorest families and the other generation would be better off than the a few at the top, growing insecurity on lifting bright children into top preceding one is no longer being met. for many in the middle, and stalled life schools and universities. Each has had The divisions in Britain today chances for those at the bottom is not its own specific policy agenda. Both impact upon many more people and a viable social proposition for Britain. are important and should continue. places than either the bottom decile in The growing sense that we have But a broader approach to social society or the few thousand youngsters become an ‘us and them’ society is reform is needed: One which focuses who miss out on a top university. deeply corrosive of our cohesion as a on people who are not in extreme The gap is growing between our nation. The EU referendum in June this poverty but are usually in work. great cities, which are pulling ahead, year exposed deep divides that go well Those struggling to make the sort of and too many towns and counties beyond the box that people crossed. progress that previous generations in Britain that are falling behind. Public concern - even anger - about did should be at the heart of a new issues of identity, immigration and government-wide drive to open up The twentieth century expectation inequality found a voice on 23rd June opportunities to meet their aspirations. that each generation would be and a target to aim at. Of the 65 parts of In our education system, for better off than the preceding the country our Commission identified example, the long-held assumption one is no longer being met as being ‘social mobility coldspots’ - that better-off children will naturally those with the poorest education and excel while their poorer classmates Critically, this generation of low and employment prospects - only three areas will naturally fall behind has become middle-income earners are running voted to remain in the European Union. a self-fulfilling prophecy. Little has harder and harder but simply standing It is very welcome that the new Prime been done to stop the drift of the best still. These ‘treadmill families’ have Minister has made it her mission to schools and teachers into better-off jobs but often don’t have careers. For a heal the profound social and economic communities and away from poorer decade their earnings have been frozen fissures which the EU Referendum ones. The consequence is a deeply

6 | Centre Write breaking or remaking elitism?

>> divided schools system that is denying active labour market policy is needed. unaffordable London housing market. too many youngsters the educational The same is true in housing policy, A less divided Britain will require opportunities they need to succeed in where the assumption has been that the a more redistributive approach to an increasingly skills-hungry labour market will match supply with demand. spreading education and employment market. And while higher education has However, not enough homes are being prospects across our country. enjoyed relentless focus and growing built, with the consequence that owner- resources, vocational education has been occupation – one of the foundations Modern capitalist economies like our starved of both. It is time to challenge for higher levels of social mobility own are capable of creating better, the assumption that Britain can succeed – is in free-fall among the young. fairer and more inclusive societies economically or socially with such a Meanwhile a hands-off approach to the divided education system. privately rented sector has condemned Making Britain a socially mobile The assumptions underpinning much a generation of young families to nation is a big task. Tinkering of labour market policy for the last few growing insecurity and unaffordability. with change will not do the trick. decades have also proved wrong. The The Government needs to shed Fundamental reforms are needed to our theory has been that if enough people outdated inhibitions about intervening country’s education system and local could be taken off welfare and helped to address these market failures. economies, just as they are needed in into work, progress would follow. So too when it comes to our country’s the labour and housing markets. The This assumption ignored the new approach to regional economic policy. Commission I chair hopes that those reality of millions of low-paid workers Over decades a quiet new assumption reforms can be captured by government being trapped on the wrong side of a has come to underpin public policy in a Ten Year Plan for Social Reform. bifurcated labour market with little thinking: that people from weaker It will take time and effort, as well as likelihood of escape. If this fundamental economic areas who wanted to get on new thinking and new approaches, divide is to be overcome, employers in life would have to move out. The to create a level playing-field of and government will need to agree a consequences of a generation getting opportunity in our country. But new deal on workforce proficiency, on their bikes can be seen in the that should be the holy grail of productivity and progression to make socially hollowed-out towns, cities and public policy, the priority for it possible to move millions of people counties of ‘left-behind Britain’. The government, and the cause which from low pay to living pay. A more impact is felt too in the increasingly unites the nation to take action. •

Winter 2016 | 7 breaking or remaking elitism?

Establishment in transition Philip Collins on the changing nature of ‘the Establishment’

philip collins is a elite. That is not an interesting political brought to power a new political columnist and chief leader point: It is just arithmetic. On the generation. Of course the top people writer for The Times philosophical accusation that this elite in the courts and the press stayed is allegedly ‘liberal’, the first retort is the same, but so they should. to say that it often isn’t but, second, if Democracies do not alter their judiciary The term ‘the Establishment’ is sometimes it is then so much the better. The death and their journalism according to attributed, probably apocryphally, to of Fidel Castro is all the reminder we the government of the day. the radical historian AJP Taylor. In a need of what happens when a country review in 1953 of a biography of William is run instead by an illiberal elite. The death of Fidel Castro is all Cobbett in The New Statesman, Taylor The more important question is not the reminder we need of what wrote that “the Establishment draws in therefore whether Britain is governed by happens when a country is run recruits from outside as soon as they are an elite, but whether that elite is subject instead by an illiberal elite ready to conform to its standards and to change. Here is the deep stupidity become respectable. There is nothing hidden in AJP Taylor’s mock radical The non-political ‘Establishment’ is, more agreeable in life than to make peace formula. The idea of ‘the Establishment’ in any case, subject to the second force with the Establishment — and nothing implies an unchanging body of people for change. An elite is a concern if it is more corrupting”. (or families, perhaps, to give it some closed. If entry is open and meritocratic It’s a typically pithy thought, and dynamism over time), who run the then we need not worry about the it sounds like a maxim for our times. country in defiance of the wishes of the inevitable fact that it does not comprise Britain has left the European Union, population. Or perhaps, in the more many people. This is something worth against the advice of every expert body generous version, with just enough being concerned about. The passage that said anything; and the United deference to the people that they get away into the professions is nothing like as States has elected Donald Trump over with it. As soon as you start to define the open and meritocratic as it needs to the next Clinton in line to be its next idea like this it yields up its nonsense. be. The Social Mobility Commission’s President. This seems like the age in latest State of the Nation report makes which the people revolt against the This seems like the age in that point plain. This is the essential established rulers. Sometimes those rulers which the people revolt against point about ‘the establishment’ - are disparaged as ‘the Establishment’, the established rulers although it must be said that social and sometimes they are the ‘liberal mobility is not well measured by the elite’. But however they are defined ‘The Establishment’ is subject to change numbers of working class people and whoever is a member, this is a in two ways. The first is democratic and who make it into an elite clustered club that nobody now wants to join. this works well. One lot gets thrown out around a few London professions. The hostility, though, is stupid. All with ruthless efficiency. This happens This would be entirely the wrong representative democracies are governed even within parties, let alone between obsession. The first priority for social by elites. They are bound to be so as parties. The Blair people were kicked out mobility must be a relevant educational there can only be one Cabinet. The when Brown took over. Theresa May has offer to the half of the population institutions of the state and the organs got rid of most of the ardent supporters that does not go to university. of power in the media only have so of David Cameron. But of course the If we fixed that (and there is no many jobs available. Whoever occupies same thing happens at General Elections. indication that we are about to) then we those positions are bound to be few in The dismissal of a Labour Government can stop using the defunct category of number and they are bound to be an and the election of a Tory Government ‘the Establishment’. AJP Taylor should

8 | Centre Write breaking or remaking elitism?

>> have known better. He didn’t, after all, Act and the abolition of the Corn Laws. prison and was often prosecuted for libel. have to look far for an example. William He was a pamphleteer, a newspaper It is worth remembering that Cobbett Cobbett was a radical outsider all his editor and a polemicist who cultivated began his career as a soldier and in 1832 life. He was vocal in the campaigns for a reputation for being a scourge of became the MP for Oldham. He found Catholic emancipation, the 1832 Reform established authority. He spent time in a way in and it matters that he could. •

Why grammars aren’t the route to social mobility David Laws argues for the need to focus on early years and non-selective education

the rt hon david laws recent progress in primary education. have the capacity or effectiveness to is Executive Chairman In the face of this huge challenge, raise outcomes for large numbers of the Education the Government has published a of students from generally low Policy Institute Green Paper - “Schools That Work for prior attainment backgrounds. Everyone”. This identifies a number of Recently, the Education Policy Institute education providers which are considered looked at the impact of grammar schools Since Theresa May became Prime to be highly successful, and which the on social mobility, given the central role Minister, she has made a welcome Government sees as potential drivers of an expansion of grammar schools seems commitment to prioritise action to social mobility - namely private schools, to play in the Government’s emerging improve social mobility. However, the grammar schools, faith schools and social mobility strategy. Our analysis, recent report of the Social Mobility universities. The absence of emphasis on using data from the Government’s own Commission demonstrates just how high performing multi-academy trusts National Pupil Database, led to some much progress needs to be made, in looks striking in the light of the direction conclusions which the Government will the face of the strong headwinds which of schools policy prior to Theresa no doubt welcome. For example, we are blowing directly in the opposite May taking over as Prime Minister. found that the Leader of the Opposition’s direction. Of course, the Government is right claim that “grammar schools depress Any serious strategy to improve social to indicate that grammar schools, faith overall educational achievement” is mobility has to involve significant schools, many universities and private not supported by the data. We also improvements in educational outcomes schools are all strongly associated with found that pupils attending grammar for those from more disadvantaged high attainment. What is far less clear schools achieve, on average, an estimated groups. Our recent Education Policy is whether these institutions have the one third of a grade higher in each Institute (EPI) Annual Report on characteristics necessary to significantly of eight GCSE subjects, compared “Education in England” highlighted close the disadvantage gap. What these with similar pupils in non-selective that when the new, more challenging, four types of institutions generally schools in comprehensive areas. GCSEs had been introduced, only have in common is their ability to 20% of children from disadvantaged select students - this is certainly true Since Theresa May became Prime backgrounds were likely to achieve the for private schools, grammar schools Minister, she has made a welcome new benchmark of exam success. Indeed, and most universities. It is less overtly commitment to prioritise action in 2015 there were 569 secondary schools the case with some faith schools, to improve social mobility in England - almost one in five - where though others tend to attract students 90% of disadvantaged pupils were failing whose backgrounds are notably less However, the other aspects of our to achieve the likely new benchmark of disadvantaged than their catchment areas. analysis cast doubt on whether grammar success. That is hardly a recipe for closing So it may not be a sensible leap schools are likely to provide a serious the disadvantaged gap, in spite of modest to suggest that these institutions and scalable social mobility solution.

Winter 2016 | 9 breaking or remaking elitism?

>> Because almost 40% of the disadvantage gap emerges before entry to school, and around 60% emerges by the end of primary school (Education Policy Institute Annual Report 2016), any social mobility solution based on selection of highly able students at age 11 isn’t likely to be very effective. Only 2.5% of grammar school pupils are entitled to free school meals - a key measure of poverty - compared with 13.2% in all state funded schools. Even the higher ability poor children are less with just 4,000 such pupils in total should be much more focused on early likely to gain entry to grammar schools, in the 163 grammar schools. action to close the gap - including in the and a mere 500 of 90,000 free school years before starting formal schooling. meal children in each age cohort gain The positive grammar school However, when we look at recent access to selective schools each year. effect on attainment declines Government policy in the early years, The EPI analysis also found that as the proportion of pupils we see that the current priority is an the positive grammar school effect on attending grammar schools rises expanded childcare offer, in which the attainment declines, as the proportion of extra 15 hours of provision is not open pupils attending grammar schools rises. EPI researchers compared high prior- to children who have either parent out Importantly, our research also showed attaining pupils in grammar schools of employment. This means that many that in the most selective areas we begin with similar pupils who attend high of the poorest children will in fact have to uncover a small negative effect of not quality non selective schools. These less spent on them in the “early years” attending a grammar school. For pupils are schools in the top 25 per cent based than children from significantly more who live in the most selective areas on value-added progress measures, affluent backgrounds. Of course, the but do not attend a grammar school, and represent good quality schools Coalition Government introduced an negative effects are estimated to emerge operating at large scale. There are, Early Years Pupil Premium to seek to at around the point where selective places according to our calculations, five times support disadvantaged children in early are available for 70% of high attaining as many high quality non-selective years education - but this premium pupils - which is a concern given that schools as there are grammar schools, (of around £300 per child per year) is the Government has indicated that it based on this measure. These schools very small in relation both to the cost will prioritise grammar school expansion also turn out to be much more socially of the extra 15 hours of childcare and in the areas where these schools are representative than grammar schools, in relation to the primary school pupil most popular, which is largely where admitting close to the national rate premium of £1,320 for each eligible child. grammar schools are already prevalent. of FSM pupils (12.6% versus 13.2% What else might a Government intent nationally). Compared with these high Many of the poorest children on improving social mobility do? Well, performing non selective schools, we will in fact have less spent on at a school level, research commissioned estimate there is no benefit to attending a them in the “early years” than by the Education Policy Institute from grammar school for high attaining pupils, children from significantly the London School of Economics shows measured by “best 8” GCSE grades. more affluent backgrounds that the first 200 sponsor academies have There is therefore a strong case for the been successful at both raising overall Government seeking to prioritise the As the Social Mobility Commission attainment (on average by about one creation of more high performing non has therefore recently argued, there is GCSE grade in each of five subjects) and selective schools, particularly in those a strong case for increasing the Early serving large numbers of disadvantaged parts of the country where the attainment Years Pupil Premium and for taking pupils. The first 200 sponsor academies of low income pupils is very poor. steps to raise significantly the quality now educate around 50,000 pupils The other striking conclusion from the and availability of early years education entitled to free school meals, compared analysis set out above is that Government for our most disadvantaged pupils. •

10 | Centre Write breaking or remaking elitism?

Tomorrow belongs to Me? James Kingston on the disaffection of millennial voters

james kingston is a of both the Brexit vote and Trump’s win, in part explained by a consideration of the member of Bright Blue, thousands of younger voters took to word ‘establishment’. An establishment entrepreneur and activist the streets in protest; anguished articles exists in institutions, networks, and and shared screeds on social media attitudes. In Britain, our favourite notion discussed the threat to internationalist of the establishment is that stemming We are, or so we are told, being swept by values that the young purport to cherish; from our traditional class structures; the anti-establishment fury. Voters in their in the UK, many wrote of a political commingled networks of influence wisdom have decided to kick the elites divide falling as much along generational once tying together the public schools, and reject the establishment they form. as class or geographic lines. The Oxbridge, Guards Regiments, landowning Everywhere the hollowed institutions of millennial voter, it seems, is the greatest gentry, Anglican Church and upper the West seem to totter before the storm; proponent of established liberal values. echelons of the Conservative Party. pundits solemnly prophesy the decline Yet youthful disaffection clearly has a of the western-led global order; others role to play. Transatlantic trends also The millennial voter, it seems, of bleaker mien question the very notion ran in parallel with the rise of Jeremy is the greatest proponent of of progress itself. But a curious fact Corbyn and Bernie Sanders. Similar in established liberal values remains: Unlike almost every other such age and improbability, both achieved ‘anti-establishment’ storm in history, this extraordinary late success as leaders of The contemporary global establishment revolution – if revolution it be – is one insurgent political campaigns, each fuelled is different. Based on the presumption overwhelmingly opposed by the young. in large part by the devotion of youthful of meritocracy, today’s elite is at base For better or worse, the young have supporters. Sanders won more primary educational – schooled in Oxbridge, stood in the vanguard of revolutionary and caucus votes among under-30s than the Ivy Leave, and institutions such as change throughout modern history. Clinton and Trump combined, and it has the Ecole Polytechnique. The financial From 1840s Germany through to the become a truism of writing on Corbyn establishment gains its further training tumult of 20th century China and onto that his rallies are filled with the enthused in the elite institutions of global the Arab Spring, youth and youthful young. Both politicians profited from capitalism (Goldman Sachs, McKinsey), passion has challenged the established attacks on a system seen as ‘broken’, a its meeting grounds in conferences like order. The anti-establishment politics rejection of managerial politics, and a the Davos Forum, and its mouthpiece, of the contemporary Anglosphere thus desire for far-reaching change among the sublimely self-confident Economist represents a strange phenomenon. No younger citizens. magazine. Beside them stands the more should it be presumed that it is the political establishment. In Britain, this is fresh-faced who line up to assault the But a curious fact remains: Unlike ever more the preserve of the educated. established order. Quite the opposite: almost every other such ‘anti- According to the Sutton Trust, of the this is not a movement of youth. establishment’ storm in history, members of the 2015 parliament, 33% Young British voters supported Remain this revolution – if revolution attended a private school, and almost by an overwhelming margin. Some 73% it be – is one overwhelmingly all possess a degree, and a quarter of of 18-24 year old supported Remain, opposed by the young MPs had an occupational background along with some 62% of 25-34 year in politics prior to becoming an MP – olds. Of voters aged 20-29 in the US, This dichotomy between the status- the think tanks and lobbying firms that 55% voted for Clinton and 37% for quo liberalism of younger voters and form the penumbra to political power. Trump; the remainder chose alternative their support for the anti-establishment Alongside this is the cultural candidates. In the immediate aftermath radicalism of Corbyn and Sanders may be establishment: academics, journalists, TV

Winter 2016 | 11 breaking or remaking elitism?

>> commentators. It is this establishment behaviour may be seen to be carried out congregate together in the great cities. that does the most to form the norms in rejection of immigration, diversity, It is the under-30s who will most of public discourse, to structure public and identity politics. Millennials – contend with the emerging experience of narrative, and to create the cultural ‘snowflakes’ and ‘Stepford Students’ to economic precarity – caught between the symbols by which social and political some right-wing journalists - are broadly imperatives of student loan repayments, consciousness is mobilised. Uniting all identified as comfortable with all three. rapid change in the jobs market, a stagnant three is professionalisation, a process In this sense, younger voters are income, and inflated house prices. that encourages area expertise and not anti-establishment, for they have The preconditions of Millennial specialisation; but some say the British imbibed the social liberalism espoused by radicalism are there - and while public has had enough of experts. cultural elites since the 1960s. Younger Millennials supported Remain and Different elements of the populace voters tend to be more accepting (largely) came out for Hillary – rail against different strands of ‘the of ethnic diversity and tolerant of Sanders and Corbyn have demonstrated Establishment’. Much of Brexit and alternative lifestyles. Above all, these the deep reserves of millennial frustration. Trump campaigning was couched in voters tend to be more urban, and with As automisation and AI come anti-professionalism and a rejection of the expansion of further education in further to transform the jobs market the cultural elite, whose preoccupation Britain and the US, more educated and with economic inequality with identity politics some argue played too. Sharing an increasingly global and rising across the west, politicians into these dynamics. Much populist liberal culture, these younger voters would do well to take note. •

Join Bright Blue

Becoming a member of Bright Blue enables you to support and partake in the championing of liberal conservatism.

You will be an official part of Bright Blue's network – invited to all our events and conferences, with the opportunity to meet a wide range of people who share Bright Blue's positive and open-minded view of politics. You will also have the opportunity to contribute ideas on policies and strategy in various ways – in debates, on our blog, and in our magazine. Join today and receive: • A special members pass for the annual Bright Blue Conference • An exclusive members-only reception each year with high-profile speakers • Hard copies of all our books and magazines

wwww.brightblue.org.uk

12 | Centre Write Moving away from the centre

The resurrection of radical populism? Professor Vernon Bogdanor discusses how populist politics has fuelled a surge in nationalism

vernon bogdanor cbe identity. The populists stress national alienated and subjects of discrimination, is professor of government identity as against the transnational populists say that the victims are the at King’s College London allegiances of the elite. The elite, so they white working class whose status has argue, is more familiar with Sardinia than declined in an era of globalisation, with Sunderland, knows Biarritz better meritocracy and minority rights. Yet, Populism seems now the most than it knows the banlieues of Paris, so the populists say, these are the very dynamic political force in many liberal and prefers Palm Beach to Pittsburgh. people who have built up the country democracies, following Brexit, Donald and played by the rules. By contrast, Trump’s election victory and the rise With the rise of populism, the ‘elite’, the bankers and their political of Marine Le Pen’s Front National. the debate has shifted from backers, did not play by the rules. But what is populism? Some say that a economics to identity Welfare beneficiaries did not play by the populist is merely a politician who proves rules. Minorities, who have benefited unexpectedly popular. But perhaps we UKIP’s main criticism of David from affirmative action, have not can try a more precise definition. Cameron was not that he was too played by the rules. Women, benefiting A populist is someone who believes right-wing or too left-wing, but that he from another form of affirmative that the traditional governing parties was insufficiently British. The SNP’s action – tokenism in the populists’ of moderate Left and moderate Right, criticism of Labour is not that it is too view - do not play by the rules either. which claim to oppose each other, in right-wing or too left-wing but that it reality form a consensus, since they is insufficiently Scottish. That is why The elite belong to the agree upon basic issues. In Britain, the election of Corbyn has done so little exam-passing classes. France and the United States, for to help Labour north of the border. Most supporters of example, the main parties agreed on Donald Trump’s criticism of Obama populist parties do not the benefits of immigration and the and Hillary Clinton was not that they advantages of globalisation. In Britain, were too left-wing or too right-wing but Modern populism has historical the three major parties favoured that they were insufficiently American. antecedents. In Britain, the speeches Britain’s continued membership of the Marine Le Pen similarly assails the on immigration and Europe by Enoch European Union. The people did not. traditional parties in France with the Powell in the late 1960s presaged the The real debate, so populists claim, is cry that they are insufficiently French. swing of blue collar workers away not between Left and Right, but between The populists divide voters on the basis from the Left. In the United States, the people and the elite, the political not primarily of class but of education. the revolt of George Wallace in 1968 class which has interests in common The key indicator for a UKIP vote is an was a first sign that the New Deal which separate them from the people. absence of educational qualifications. coalition was coming to an end and Until recently, the political debate in the The same is true of support for Trump that many of its under-privileged West was based broadly on the role of the and Marine Le Pen. The elite belong supporters were seeking a new allegiance. state in economic affairs. The left sought to the exam-passing classes. Most Responding to Wallace, Richard Nixon an expanded state, the right a more supporters of populist parties do not. spoke of the ‘silent majority’, those restricted one; and whether a voter found Populists stress the identity of the whom the American commentator herself on the left or the right depended indigenous majority who, so they say, Ben Wattenberg called, “The unpoor, primarily on his or her social class. have become strangers in their own the unblack and the unyoung”. This But, with the rise of populism, the land. Whereas the Left tends to identify group is once again fearful and angry. debate has shifted from economics to with ethnic minorities whom they see as In a PEW survey carried out in

Winter 2016 | 13 Moving away from the centre

>> March, 75% felt that “discrimination against whites has become as big a problem as discrimination against blacks and other minorities”. The appeal of the populists is primarily to those left behind by social and economic change, the decline of heavy industry and manufacturing. In Britain, fifty years ago, educational qualifications were not absolutely essential to secure employment. One could leave school at 16, move into a job with the confidence that one would never be out of work. But with the decline of, for example, coal mining and the steel industry, that is no longer the case. There is therefore a sharp cleavage between those who have the skills to benefit from globalisation and those who have not. That is a new cleavage and not only in Britain. © Dr Case, Flickr Creative Commons Licence The ‘left behind’ feel a strong sense of disenfranchisement and powerlessness the Left, as it did in 1930s Europe when nationalistic is nothing new in western believing as they do that the political Marxists wrongly predicted the collapse politics. Twentieth century Europe was class makes its decisions without of capitalism. But although the financial dominated by the struggle between consulting their interests, and looks crash has benefited the Right, it has liberal democracy and the forces of down on them as unreconstructed bigots. given rise to a mood which is radical and radical nationalism, as represented by anything but conservative, benefiting Fascism and National Socialism. At the There is therefore a sharp cleavage not so much the traditional conservative beginning of the century, Franz Kafka between those who have the skills Right but a new radical populism. was asked to explain how he reconciled to benefit from globalisation In September, 2014, Christine the growth of nationalism with the facts and those who have not Lagarde, managing director of the IMF, of economic integration. Kafka replied told a lunch at the Financial Times - “Men always strive for what they Leaders of the moderate Left such as Ed that she was “particularly concerned do not have. The technical advances Miliband hoped that the financial crash about what she sees as a structural which are common to all nations strip of 2008 would lead to a fundamental disconnect between economic and them more and more of their national change in attitudes to the free market. political structures.” The world characteristics. Therefore they become They hoped that there would be a economic system was becoming nationalist. Modern nationalism is a strong electoral constituency for greater increasingly integrated, but the world defensive movement against the crude regulation of markets and the banks political system was fragmented encroachments of civilisation.” and in favour of redistributive taxation. and becoming more so because of In 2014, Christine Lagarde They hoped that 2008 would prove a a backlash against globalisation. declared herself “Worried. Very social democratic moment. But it has Lagarde’s interlocutor, Gillian Tett, worried. I don’t want my children, turned out instead to be a nationalist responded that “this makes for a my grandchildren, to grow up in moment. It has strengthened national dangerous cocktail, since it creates a a world which is disaggregated feeling while weakening class feeling world that is interconnected in the and fragmented.” Our task is to and social solidarity. The alienation and sense that shocks can spread quickly consider how we can prevent our sense of disenfranchisement which has but nobody is actually in charge.” world becoming one which is arisen has benefited the Right more than Radical populism which is fiercely disaggregated and fragmented. •

14 | Centre Write MOVING AWAY FROM THE CENTRE

Sensationalism and the news Does the media facilitate anti-establishment sentiment? Dr Sharon Coen thinks it does

dr sharon coen is resulting in a lack of trust and lower video formats, sensationalisation a Senior Lecturer in participation rates in political activities. occurs when stories are presented in a Media Psychology at dramatic, flamboyant way. Research University of Salford Increased coverage of negative on the effects of this sort of coverage issues is connected to higher levels has shown that, while it is indeed of pessimism in the audience successful in grabbing the attention of 2016 will be remembered as the year in the audience and arousing them, it also which two superpowers were hit by a The progressive commercialisation of leads to them evaluating the source as political storm leading to the unexpected media landscapes across the West means less trustworthy or informative. Thus, success of anti-establishment movements that news outlets are finding themselves the increased adoption of tabloid-like across the world. The increased distrust competing for audience share. News features in news coverage might be in political and cultural elites that outlets are therefore incentivised to transforming news consumption into we’ve seen comes from the belief that deliver news in a way that attracts a type of entertainment, and adding those elites have little or no regard for and maintains attention and creates mainstream media outlets to the the interests of the ‘man of the street’. a loyal audience. ‘not-to-be-trusted establishment’. It’s important to note, however, that News stories are designed to Third, politics is seen as more these populist values have a history grab attention and keep people interesting when it concerns people which have long been documented entertained, but this rests on some than when it concerns issues. The within political science and political basic assumptions which might increased personalisation of politics communication literature. have unwanted consequences. in media coverage is well-documented The first assumption is that people in academic research. News coverage News outlets are therefore tend to pay more attention to negative of political issues is increasingly incentivised to deliver news news than positive. Research has shown focused on individual politicians, in a way that attracts and people are more likely to read negative their strategic moves and their private maintains attention stories, so it might not be surprising lives, rather than the actual political that negative news is over-represented. issues they represent. But what are the In the introductory chapter to their But what are the consequences in consequences of this personalisation? book “Twenty-First Century Populism”, terms of attitudes towards politically Daniele Albertazzi and Duncan relevant issues? An interesting study News coverage of political issues is McDonnell suggest several factors of the coverage of economic issues in increasingly focused on individual which may explain this phenomenon: the UK has shown that an increased politicians, their strategic moves and First, political elites have failed ‘in the coverage of negative issues is connected their private lives, rather than the eyes of the electorate’ to adequately to higher levels of pessimism in the actual political issues they represent address the challenges posed by modern audience. In other words, the media developments such as globalisation, may play a significant part in the An interesting review of research integration and immigration. Second, spiral of cynicism by amplifying in the area suggests this trend has the success of anti-establishment and exacerbating pessimism. had a significant impact on people’s sentiments can be traced back to an Second, people tend to pay more attitudes towards political leaders and increased level of ‘political malaise’, attention to news when it is presented voting behaviour. Overall, it suggests that is, a growing disaffection of the in a sensationalistic, tabloid-like that the way in which people perceive electorate towards the political system, style. Whether in press, audio or the personality characteristics of an

Winter 2016 | 15 Moving away from the centre

>> individual politician plays an the rule of balance. This core journalistic rather than on solid evidence. important role (over and above value dictates that whenever there Overall, the evidence suggests partisanship) on their voting decision. are conflicting views on an issue, all the media plays a significant role Combined with a tendency to present the conflicting positions need to be in promoting anti-establishment negative, sensationalistic news the represented and given voice, even if feelings in their audience, but this does increased personalisation of politics leads the disagreement comes from a small not necessarily mean this process is to an overrepresentation of political minority of cases. While this is a good unavoidable. The media depends on the scandals and personality flaws, so principle, in some instances – ‘establishment’: evidence shows that contributing to the perception of political in particular when the issue is complex the vast majority of sources in the news elites as corrupt and unworthy of trust. and requires specialist knowledge are politicians and public officials. If The final assumption in news media to understand the conflicting politicians change the way they which contributes to the rise of anti- positions – this may result in the false talk about politics and about each other, establishment sentiment is a journalistic impression that the ‘establishment’ the media will have no option but to rule which characterises good journalism: is acting on some hidden interests change the way they cover politics. •

Trump: from TV-star to President How did Trump win the support of the disenfranchised? Dr Clodagh Harrington explores

dr clodagh harrington premature, and within three months the has in part contributed to the feeling of is a Senior Lecturer of GOP was back in angry action, fuelled alienation expressed by many lower- American politics at De by the Tea Party movement and ready to income voters who feel they are no Montfort University gain significant electoral ground in 2010. longer listened to by those in power. Donald Trump connected with The only real difference between the disenfranchised in a hugely As the dust settles on the 2016 US the real-estate tycoon and the successful way. Non-college presidential election result, America and men he was inspiring was the educated white males in particular the wider world continues to digest the size of his bank balance flocked towards the maverick GOP stunning outcome. It is true the polls candidate. One reason cited for his predicted a close race, but only the most The Democrats would do well to draw capacity to reach this demographic ardent Trump supporters were convinced lessons from the rapid and successful came from Donald Trump Jr, who of an unhindered path to the White reincarnation of their opponents. described his father as a “blue-collar House for their renegade candidate. Their most significant challenge now billionaire” making the point that The overall result was a sweeping involves how to navigate a credible the only real difference between the Republican victory, from Congress to path forward. They must strike a real-estate tycoon and the men he Governorships and state legislatures. balance between staying true to their was inspiring was the size of his bank The opposition has been consigned, ideological credentials and somehow balance. Trump achieved a dramatic temporarily at least, to the political managing to acknowledge the current victory despite facing so little support wilderness as the pendulum has swung surge of anti-establishment anger. Like from the Republican Party machine and decisively in favour of the Grand Old its Labour counterpart in the UK, the running an often chaotic campaign. Party. In 2008, when Barack Obama US Democrat Party has conventionally Much has been written on the subject and the Democrats triumphed across been the political home of blue-collar of populism’s recent rise in the US the board, liberal pundits swiftly voters, and yet in recent years has and elsewhere. The issue of how well consigned the losing side to the dustbin attracted increasing numbers of college- the label fits Donald Trump remains of irrelevance. Such assumptions were educated middle-class support. This contentious. A typical dictionary

16 | Centre Write Moving away from the centre

>> definition of ‘populist’ is “a member or adherent of a political party seeking to represent the interests of ordinary people.” In that respect, it is true that Trump verbally expresses populist tendencies. But historically in the US context, the label ‘Populist’ relates more directly to the left-wing People’s Party which sprung up during the 1890s in the mid-west and south at a time of severe economic and social inequality. Perhaps mindful of the origins of the term, President Obama recently expressed his frustration at the idea of Donald Trump being viewed as populist, stating at a news conference: “Somebody ... who has never shown © Gage Skidmore, Flickr Creative Commons Licence any regard for workers, has never fought on behalf of social justice issues or making sure that poor kids are getting blend of cynicism and hope. For those However, it remains to be seen how the a decent shot at life or have health unimpressed with the ‘populist’ offering reality of a Trump presidency will play care, does not meet the definition. from the GOP, there was, for a while out. “They don’t suddenly become a at least, another alternative option. populist because they say something It seems incongruous that the cranky It is time for all Americans to at controversial in order to win votes. socialist from Vermont could be placed least acknowledge, if not embrace, That’s not the measure of populism. in the same bracket as the braggadocious the new political reality, which That’s nativism, or xenophobia. Or reality-TV billionaire, but sometimes is that ‘Trumpism’ has won worse. Or it’s just cynicism.” labels can offer a shorthand to voters Trump has been hailed as the leader struggling to make sense of the political The liberal media is currently enjoying of a ‘populist’ rebellion against the choices they face. Early in 2016, sharing reports of a transition team establishment status quo. It is testament Financial Times commentator Martin “in disarray.” Not all Republicans are to his charisma and capacity to woo Wolf aptly summed up the unfolding rejoicing at the presidential victory, and voters that he has successfully presented US election scenario, observing that to date it appears that Team Trump did himself as someone who is anti- the unequal Latin American-style not have a formal transition plan in place establishment, despite being a part of income distribution in the US would to roll out the day after an electoral the most privileged 1% of US society. lead to Latin American-style politics: victory. There will be a steep learning populism of the left and the right. curve for the President-elect, perhaps Trump has been hailed as the leader And so, the street protests have subsided, involving some humbling compromises of a ‘populist’ rebellion against and the victory balloons deflated. It along the way. Meanwhile, President the establishment status quo is time for all Americans to at least Obama has made it clear that he is acknowledge, if not embrace, the new willing to do what it takes to ensure a Hillary Clinton, in contrast, failed political reality, which is that ‘Trumpism’ smooth transition of power. On meeting to achieve that visceral connection has won. The President-elect presents his successor for the first time, he with the electorate. From early in the himself as a man not driven by ideology. stated that “we are going to want to do primary race, she had her own populist He is a self-described negotiator and everything we can to help you succeed challenge to contend with from his public utterances on key issues because if you succeed the country the left of her party. Bernie Sanders since November 8 have, in part at least, succeeds.” In this period of intense skilfully tapped into the millennial demonstrated some change in tone from uncertainty, the new administration political mindset, which involves a the rabble-rousing of the campaign trail. urgently needs to succeed. •

Winter 2016 | 17 Moving away from the centre

The end of the two-party system? Professor John Curtice discusses how Brexit is the biggest threat to the two-party system

john curtice is Party by the left-leaning ‘Corbynistas’, being part of the EU is an integral Professor of Politics, after the introduction of a leadership part of its vision for independence, or Strathclyde University, electoral system that put the decision the Liberal Democrats (30% Leave, and Senior Research firmly in the hands of (a much enlarged) 70% Remain), long Britain’s most Fellow, NatCen band of members and ‘supporters’. pro-EU party, avoided a substantial Social Research But the biggest challenge of all comes split amongst their supporters. from Brexit. Ever since Britain first joined the EU in 1973, its membership Britain’s two-party system could Once upon a time, the virtues of has been a divisive issue. It played an be facing its biggest challenge yet Britain’s two-party system were clear. important role in the split in Labour’s Politics was dominated by two parties, ranks in the early 1980s that lead In short, many a voter was out of one to the right of centre, one to the to the formation of the SDP. More sympathy with their party in June, left. When the incumbent government recently, UKIP’s anti-EU stance and could continue to be so as the had seemed to have run out of steam has been rewarded with remarkable debate about Brexit intensifies. The or to have lost touch with voters, there record-breaking performances in key question now is whether some was a clear alternative to which the elections held between 2013 and 2015. feel so strongly about the issue that electorate could turn. However, given However, the potential disruptive they start to defect to a party they feel that elections were won and lost in the power of the EU issue has never more adequately reflects their views. centre ground, both parties had a strong been more apparent than it has Both UKIP, the self-proclaimed voice incentive not to stray into the extremes. since last year’s general election. of the ‘hard Brexiteers’, and the Liberal Although all but a small minority of Democrats, who seem determined Once upon a time, the Labour MPs backed remaining in the to become the standard bearer for virtues of Britain’s two- EU, the parliamentary Conservative ‘Remoaners’, have had their troubles of party system were clear Party was torn apart by the EU late. But on Brexit they both have a clear referendum. According to the BBC, position with which they can hope to Those days seem to be long over. while 185 Conservative MPs backed attract new supporters to their ranks. Having won well over 90% of the Remain, 138 backed Leave. Now vote between them in the immediate that division is being replayed in an Both the Conservatives and Labour post-war period, more recently the internal (but often public) debate seem destined to try and keep their Conservatives and Labour have in the party about whether the UK divided ranks intact with what struggled to win as much as 70%. should seek a ‘hard’ or a ‘soft’ Brexit. could come to seem like mixed Neither party is now an effective force Meanwhile, no party – apart from or even conflicting messages in Scotland. Meanwhile, following the UKIP – was able to take its voters inability of either the Conservatives or with it in the referendum. According In contrast, both the Conservatives Labour to secure a majority in the 2010 to the British Election Study, while and Labour seem destined to try election, the last parliament saw the first 63% of those who voted Conservative and keep their divided ranks intact coalition in Britain’s post-war history. in 2015 backed Leave, 37% voted with what could come to seem like This challenge to Britain’s two-party to Remain. Labour voters were just mixed or even conflicting messages. If system shows no sign of abating. as divided with 37% voting Leave, these efforts prove inadequate, then One reason, of course, has been the 63% Remain. Not even the SNP Britain’s two-party system could be remarkable takeover of the Labour (34% Leave, 67% Remain), for whom facing its biggest challenge yet. •

18 | Centre Write MOVING AWAY FROM THE CENTRE

Feelings over fact, sentiment over statement Charlotte Henry on the impact of fake news in a post-truth era

charlotte henry is a Davies says that there is a for-hire facts electoral college. His supporters cared member of Bright Blue industry that means anyone can pay for their about the rhetoric, not the reasoning. own truth if they have enough money. If you cannot get an appointment We are, without doubt, drowning in a sea easily at your local GP, £350 million “There are three types of lies,” Benjamin of information, and this allows people to fish a week for the NHS sounds great. Disraeli is alleged to have declared, “lies, out the facts that suit them. However, I’m not If you think your job has been taken damned lies, and statistics”. convinced by Davies’ argument. It may not by a Mexican immigrant you may well One wonders what Disraeli or Mark Twain, be fashionable to say so, but research, polling want to build that wall, and you would who popularised the quotation, would have and yes, good old fashioned journalism, probably believe a US President can make made of the current state of politics, which is still have a vital role to play in helping us Mexico pay for it too. Most importantly, filled to bursting with all three. So prevalent understand what is going on in the society, even if you do not believe those things has ‘post-truth politics’ become, whereby and what is deliverable by our elected leaders. can come to pass, you would be pleased people distort facts, dubiously source data, or somebody is prepared to tackle your issues. simply make up things in order to fuel their In this post-truth era liberals have Post-truth politics is then born both own narrative, that the phrase was declared found ourselves at a disadvantage out of a frustration at the way things the Oxford Dictionary’s word of 2016. currently are, and a technological and media It is my firm belief that post-truth politics Social media is clearly a huge factor in environment that allows people to ramp up helped push Britain out of the EU and information getting warped, and untruths and spread all kinds of misinformation. Donald Trump into the White House. being spread. We live in an age where trolls After all, much of the public think Politicians now seem comfortable promising and troublemakers can, as the old saying that the current crop of political things that they surely must know can goes, get a lie halfway around the world leaders have not done so well for us. never be delivered, from £350m a year before the truth has put its boots on. They may well reason that even if a for the NHS from the Leave campaign, Fake news, powered by Facebook and grandiose promise is only partially kept to walls on the US border with Mexico Google algorithms not smart enough to that is better than things are now. from the then Republican candidate. edit fact from well-constructed fiction From Brexit to Trump, Corbyn to It appears that Michael Gove was right as humans can, is hurtling around Sanders, immigration to surveillance when he said that “people in this country the internet at lightning speed. laws, liberalism has taken a bit of a have had enough of experts”. Voters now The US Presidential election pounding in 2016. In this post-truth seem to care more about the sentiment demonstrated this perfectly. There was era liberals have found ourselves at than the statement itself. So dramatic has a genuine discussion in the media as to a disadvantage. In large part this is this change in discourse been, that it is hard whether Hillary Clinton had suffered because so much of liberal thought is to remember quite how we got here. a stroke or was suffering some other based on reason, logic and evidence, Writing in the New York Times back in major illness, because her opponents the very things people are rejecting. August, William Davies, author and Associate spread it on social media and on Light will always be the best disinfectant Professor in political economy at Goldsmiths, television that she had, despite all medical though, and if we are going to counter University of London, said: “The problem evidence pointing to the contrary. fake news and post-truth politics we is the oversupply of facts in the 21st century: The Trump campaign has regularly liberals need to do more than just piously There are too many sources, too many made statements that independent, fact-check. We need to sell the reality, methods, with varying levels of credibility, non-partisan websites such as Politifact the accurate, fact based, reality, far better depending on who funded a given study and declared to be untrue, and yet he still than we are doing. Otherwise post- how the eye-catching number was selected.” swept to a comprehensive victory in the truth politics will be here to stay. •

Winter 2016 | 19 bright blue politics the centre write interview

The Centre Write interview: The Rt Hon Nick Clegg MP Laura Round discusses the rise of populism, the threat to liberalism, Trump and Brexit with the former Deputy Prime Minister.

One could say that 2016 has not been a good year for liberalism - the belief in the individual, the belief in reason, liberalism. Is there a way back and why is the liberal message the belief in internationalism, the belief in reform, and the not resonating with people? enlightened belief in progress that tomorrow can always be made better than today and today can be better than yesterday Of course there’s a way back. Nothing’s fixed and immutable - is clearly not speaking to the visceral fears and anxieties that in politics. When a pendulum swings in one direction it has an people have about their own circumstances and about the world uncanny habit of swinging in another direction as well. If the in which they inhabit. That’s just obvious. I think liberalism generational differences in this country are anything to go by and always struggles at a time of fear. It’s easier to espouse the if the vote by young people in favour of staying in Europe can be sunny, rational altruism of liberalism when you’re feeling used as any guide to how they might continue to think as they good about your circumstances and you’re feeling secure get older, there’s going to be change with the passage of time in in your job and you’re not feeling threatened by anything any event in favour of internationalism within British politics. or anybody else. Where liberalism always fairs worse, and Of course, you have to always believe there’s a way back, populism always, of course, fairs better at a time of fear. but clearly, liberalism - and by that I mean a classical British I think the underlying question is “how do you address the

20 | Centre Write the centre write interview bright blue politics the centre write interview

>> underlying insecurities and fears that are clearly giving If it were that simple it would be rather straightforward. expression to various forms of populism”? There’s no point in Start a revolution and just kick everybody out. lambasting Trump - or Le Pen, Farage and Wilders - without The country was massively divided. Two huge understanding that lots of decent people are voting for him. votes pulling it in diametrically opposite directions Much as I abhor a lot of the leaders of the Brexit campaign, I and it’s just too easy to claim that everybody who’s certainly don’t abhor the many decent people who voted for in ‘the so-called establishment’ screwed up. Brexit. In the same way that I think it’s absurd for Brexiters Self-evidently we’re dealing with much, much deeper to somehow air brush out of the record the aspirations and and more profound forces than that: Islamist terrorism, values of over 16 million of their fellow citizens. I think mass migration from the Mediterranean, the financial it’s equally absurd for some Remainers to somehow imply system which could’ve started with a problem in subprime that somehow everybody that voted for Brexit did so out mortgages in midwest America that led to the biggest banking of malign intent. They clearly didn’t. Lots of really good, crisis this country’s ever seen. Saying all this is simply the decent people voted for that. That’s the distinction you have establishment’s fault is a ludicrously simplistic allegation. to make and that’s one of the starting blocks that liberalism needs to put in place in order to get back in the ring. During the United States Presidential Primaries, Marco Rubio claimed the media had a lot to answer for, stating Can you understand the backlash that ‘the establishment’ they had helped Donald Trump’s campaign by covering his has experienced? controversial remarks instead of the other candidate’s policy announcements. What do you believe to be the role of the Yes, although I draw a distinction. Talking in apocryphal terms, media in the recent developments? when a very well-to-do gentlemen whose house is kept spotlessly clean by their Latin cleaner, whose elderly mum is being looked There are significant vested interests in the British press. I’m after and changed by their very nice Portuguese social worker hardly uncovering a conspiracy, they say it themselves. Paul and whose business has done very well out of a growing Dacre, the Barclay Brothers, and The Sun are the dominant economy thanks to our place in the Single Market. However, voices in our press. They are all competitors, but they are joined they vote for Brexit because the Daily Telegraph has told him at the hip ideologically. They want to see Britain turned into a you’ve got to return to some sort of mirage of nineteenth century low-tax, low-regulation, offshore economy. They say the solution gunboat diplomacy. I’m afraid I have no sympathy for that at to Brexit is slash corporation tax, slash labour regulations, slash all. That is where I have a limit to my understanding and I think red tape, make it a wild west economy for investors from around it’s just wrong. However, I have huge understanding for - again the world. Of course they’re all aligned in their hatred of the being apocryphal - a single mum on an estate in my constituency European Union because turning the United Kingdom into an in southwest Sheffield who works long hours and has had a pay offshore, low-regulation Singapore is incompatible with being squeeze remorselessly for eight years, whose in-work benefits part of this supranational arrangement. I’m not whinging about have been trimmed, and who worries that her daughter can’t get it, that’s just a fact. The boot is now on that sort of Brexit foot. her feet on the property ladder, who says “Remain sounds as if all The thing that I find so curious is that these people, for so is fine as it is”. I have huge sympathy with them, so that is where long, yelled at what they consider to be the out of touch elite, I draw a distinction. In other words I not only sympathise but they don’t quite know what to do with the responsibility that I find it very difficult to counter the sentiments of some Brexit comes with victory. These people are in charge. I remember voters. Others obviously I had and have no sympathy for at all. I was sharing a platform a few months ago with Douglas Where I think we need to be careful is that some people Carswell. All his usual clichés came tumbling out. And I say it’s all the establishment’s fault. The Brexit press in said: “You are now the elite. You are in charge. You are now particular are now claiming that they were always right in the establishment. We now look to you for answers.” He every way. If you listen to them you’d think that everybody looked utterly dumbfounded. That’s what’s so curious. voted overwhelmingly for Brexit and only Ken Clarke and Both in America and here, the populists have done very myself voted for Remain. It’s much more complex than well. There’s absolutely no point denying it. But it’s almost that. History is being re-invented as if everybody voted as if they never really had the true confidence they were for Brexit, that the establishment stinks, and all we need going to win, or even deserved to win. That’s the curious to do is just bury the past. It’s not nearly as simple as that. thing and we are now in a bizarre situation where they

Winter 2016 | 21 bright blue politics the centre write interview

>> have won and they still won’t tell us what the answer is. the apogee of Gladstonian liberalism. Yet for some reason, every time liberals do battle with populism like Brexit, you’re What impacts are the elections in Germany, France and the cast as a bit unpatriotic. What on earth has it come to if Netherlands going to have on the Brexit negotiations? wishing to assert Britain’s leadership as a leading member of Europe is basically branded as an unpatriotic thing to do? Massive. If the rest of Europe turns in on itself, then self- For some reason, the populists appear to have a stronger evidently the priority attached to the Brexit negotiations sinks. claim in many people’s views on patriotism. That is really We do live sometimes in this illusion that everyone in western dangerous. For that reason I always say the liberal left are Europe is thinking about Brexit. They’re not. They’ve got their going to overcome their squeamishness about patriotism. own problems, their own priorities. If there is political instability Patriotism can be a dark thing but it can be a very uplifting in Europe, that will only become more the case. thing as well. One of the things I would like for liberals across parties to do is to be more unapologetically What was your reaction when you heard Trump had won the patriotic and never allow the localists and chauvinists to Presidential Election? claim that they’re more patriotic than liberals are. I hope that across the whole liberal spectrum from liberal Funny enough I was not that surprised. I thought long and hard Conservatives to liberal Labour members to Liberal Democrats, about Brexit and it just seemed obvious to me that in a contest people will be nonpartisan in listening to each other. between a bunch of politicians who are saying they want to tweak the status quo and another bunch of politicians that say How can we make Parliament and other top positions more they’re going to smash the status quo, the smashers are winning representative? at the moment. This is a time smashers do well, tweakers don’t. I would say that if you persist with a system that is so woefully What three words would you use to describe Trump? out of whack with the choices that people actually express in the ballot box, you shouldn’t be surprised when people feel they Vain. Unpredictable. And bombastic. aren’t being represented. Four million people voted for a party and they were rewarded with Douglas Carswell. What more do I You’ve written about the heart being a stronger organ than need to say? the brain and that populists know how to appeal to emotions, You can fiddle around as much as you like on the Titanic which is a skill liberals don’t seem to grasp as much. How of Westminster. A tweak here, a tweak there, finding a can liberals solve this? different way of selecting candidates, but if at the end of the day the way millions of people vote is not being reflected in That’s the $10 million question to which I don’t have a perfect Parliament then you’re always starting on the backfoot. answer. There’s a self-denying ordinance in liberalism. Liberalism The sad thing is, most MPs that I know of all parties work is nothing if it is not a creed which believes in evidence, debate, much, much harder than most politicians in most other compromise and data. If you relinquish that, you’re no longer a democracies in keeping in touch with their constituents. liberal. Therefore the idiom through which liberalism speaks is I think we have to marry reform which opens up the less visceral than populism. system whilst maintaining a very fine British tradition Having said that, I do think liberals have every reason of MP’s actually being much closer to their constituents now to be angry because their values are being traduced, than most political elites are in other democracies. and mocked and disregarded by the new Brexit populist elite. I think Blair’s absolutely right. There’s no reason why This year in particular, has shown that politics can be a very liberals cannot now say that they’re the insurgents. With nasty game. Are you worried it might turn off people entering insurgency comes the freedom to attack a new establishment, into politics? a new elite, who may not know what to do with victory but whether they like it or not, they’re now in charge. Completely. Which normal person is going to willingly put I believe British liberalism is a profoundly patriotic creed. themselves forward for the hysterical vituperation which is I think there’s something profoundly patriotic about the long now directed at any politician that gets anywhere? As a dad, tradition stretching right back to the nineteenth century if I wouldn’t want my children to go into politics. Because as a not further back, of British liberalism. Right back to J.S. Mill, parent, you want to protect your children. Perhaps in my case

22 | Centre Write the centre write interview bright blue politics the centre write interview

>> it was slightly extreme, and I’m sure it was as much my fault lawyers, social workers, doctors, judges, police, chief as much as anyone else’s. Trying to unite vituperative vested executives of local authorities - is either immoral or on interest from both right and left, I’ve had to endure incoming fire the take. It denigrates the idea of public service. There everyday for half a decade from both Right and Left. The mud are of course plenty of rotten apples in public service sticks and the bruises show. and you’ve got bloodhounds at the Daily Mail who sniff It does worry me actually. Such appalling and vile things are out corruption. However, there is a difference in holding said about people. My worry is that it’s not just politics. If people to account and denigrating all motives about you were to read the Daily Mail for a week, you would think public service. Of course that will discourage people anyone who’s in public service - whether it’s accountants, thinking going to public service in the future. •

latest report

Better homes: Incentivising home energy improvements Ben Caldecott & Sam Hall

This is the second report from our Green conservatism project.

Homes in the UK need to consume less and greener energy so that important targets for reducing carbon emissions are achieved. Government sought to incentivise home energy BETTER improvements by creating the Green Deal in HOMES 2013, but this was a failure and ended after two INCENTIVISING years. There is now a policy vacuum. HOME ENERGY IMPROVEMENTS This report examines the current market in energy efficiency measures and decentralised

renewable technologies, and the possible Sam Hall and reasons for the Green Deal’s failure. It Ben Caldecott proposes a new home energy improvement scheme in the able to pay sector.

Winter 2016 | 23 a changing electorate

A democracy that works for everyone Chris Skidmore MP lays out the Government’s plans to improve voter registration

chris skidmore mp is Minister for the Constitution

It is vital that as many eligible people as possible are heard in the democratic process to ensure we build a democracy that works for everyone. The EU referendum in June marked a historic high point in the level of democratic participation in this country, with a record 46.5 million people registered to vote. The introduction of Individual Electoral Registration has meant joining the electoral roll is faster and more accessible than ever before. It now takes just a few minutes to apply online, and more than 21 million have done so since 2014. However, there is still more for us to and empower them to have their say example on Council Tax, to identify those do. We must continue to improve the – ensuring that no community is left whose details may have changed so they registration process to successfully engage behind. Recently, I began a tour of every can then target the occupants directly to even greater numbers. People from black part of the United Kingdom to hear ensure that their information is up to date and minority ethnic (BAME) groups, how we can continue to build a stronger and, crucially, they are able to vote in the those who move house frequently, young democracy. I have spoken with many next election. They also give councils the people, and those with a longstanding individuals and organisations – including flexibility to use letters, telephone, email mental health condition or disability Citizens UK, UpRising and Patchwork or door knocking to contact residents. are all still less likely to register to Foundation – who share my belief If these pilots are rolled out nationally, vote. British citizens living overseas that every voice matters. And we are they could generate savings of up to £20 are also particularly under-registered. working with groups such as Women’s million every year and free up resources Aid, to ensure that victims of domestic to help under-represented groups. We will continue to reach out to violence aren’t further discriminated And once someone does register to all communities, including those against in the electoral process. vote, it is imperative we ensure that who feel socially excluded, to We have recently launched 18 pilot every vote carries equal weight - which encourage and empower them projects across England and Wales is why reform of our boundaries is so to have their say – ensuring that to bring down the cost of the annual important. As an example, in my area no community is left behind canvass. These are in addition to pilots of the West Country, the constituency already taking place in Birmingham, of Bristol West has the same democratic That is why we will continue to reach South Lakeland and Ryedale. They will right as nearby Bath, who have 30,000 out to all communities, including those allow councils to compare the electoral fewer voters. To put this right, we who feel socially excluded, to encourage register with the records they hold, for must press ahead with the redrawing

24 | Centre Write a changing electorate

>> of constituency boundaries to end have moved overseas have the right to to make the system more secure. this historic unequal representation. register to vote in future elections. And it is only through all measures We must also address the injustice such as these that we can build on of British citizens losing their right British citizens who move the good work already underway. to vote if they have lived in another abroad remain a vital part of our We all have a role to play in encouraging country for 15 years. British citizens democracy and it is important they everyone in our communities to take an who move abroad remain a vital part of have the ability to participate active part in our democracy. Over the our democracy and it is important they next few months, I will be developing have the ability to participate. People Underpinning these initiatives remains a Democratic Engagement Strategy like Harry Shindler, who fought in the the Government’s commitment to to ensure that every member of every Second World War, have campaigned produce a clear and secure democracy community feels their voice matters – tirelessly for British citizens living where we continue to drive improvements and as the Prime Minister outlined on abroad to be given the vote. That is why to our electoral registration system the steps of Downing Street, we the Government’s Overseas Electors to ensure it is fit for the twenty-first will deliver a democracy that Bill will ensure that British citizens who century, while putting in place measures works for everyone. •

What have experts ever done for us? Professor Jonathan Grant argues there is still a need for experts

professor jonathan As leading Brexit campaigner Michael often do, with a historical analogy. It was grant is the Director Gove put it so memorably in the EU clumsy and inappropriate” – but the cat of the Policy Institute at referendum campaign, “people in this was out of the bag. Many ‘experts’ were King’s College London country have had enough of experts”. He deeply worried and confused by these went on to suggest that economists who comments, worried that the were warning about the risks of leaving emergence of a post-truth democracy is a “All right … but apart from the sanitation, the EU could not be trusted as they threat to their livelihoods and ideology. the medicine, education, wine, public were largely publicly funded, making So let me confess - I am an expert order, irrigation, roads, a fresh water a comparison with Nazi Germany. In and I am worried. My expertise is in system, and public health, what have the an interview on LBC radio he said: the niche area of biomedical and health Romans ever done for us.” “We have to be careful about historical science policy, but in that area I am So ended the infamous argument in comparisons, but Albert Einstein during acknowledged globally for what I know Monty Python’s Life of Brian. And the 1930s was denounced by the German and think. I have had the privilege of the same could be said for experts. authorities for being wrong and his working with governments and medical What have they ever done for us? theories were denounced, and one of research charities across the world – in From medical breakthroughs, space the reasons of course he was denounced the UK, North America, Australia and exploration and our understanding was because he was Jewish. They got the Middle East. I like to think that my of climate change, to technological 100 German scientists in the pay of work, in a very small way, has helped to advances, improving schools and the government to say that he was wrong shape the way that research is supported IVF – the list is almost endless. and Einstein said: “Look, if I was wrong, and funded, and in doing so, has helped But like the Romans, that contribution one would have been enough.” Gove improve the health and wellbeing of is being challenged and the role of the acknowledged his mistake in making this communities across the world. But I am expert in the 21st Century is threatened. comparison, later saying “I answered, as I useless at many things. If a pipe leaks

Winter 2016 | 25 a changing electorate

>> in my house I call an expert to fix it; if my child is ill I take her to an expert to make her better; if my car breaks down, I take it to an expert to be repaired. The point is that we are all experts.

Many ‘experts’ were worried that the emergence of a post- truth democracy is a threat to their livelihoods and ideology

But have we really had enough of experts? I increasingly think not, for two reasons: First, Gove was being politically opportunistic in the EU referendum debate. When he was Secretary of State for Justice he set up a Data, Evidence and Science Advisory Board chaired by Sir Michael Barber. As his departmental plan put it: “We will put evidence at the heart of what we do. We will improve our data, analysis and research capability, so that we can give officials and frontline staff access to evidence about what works, helping to deliver the the evening news with my parents. This around one in ten said it is their main best outcomes for citizens”. Second, the was the dominant source of news and source. More than a quarter of 18–24s evidence points the other way. A recent was taken as the ‘truth’ – we may have said social media was their main source poll by the Institute for Government different interpretations of the rights of news, which was more than television. concludes that “85% of people want or wrongs of what was being reported So the post-truth democracy is politicians to consult professionals and and its implications, but we trusted the actually a multiple-truth democracy. experts when making difficult decisions, ‘facts’. But over the past 10 years or so Those ‘truths’ may or may not be and 83% want government to make the monopolistic supply of the facts anchored in evidence or expertise, but decisions based on objective evidence.” has been fragmented into numerous they are perceived by the recipients This does not mean I am complacent. sources – blogs, websites, Twitter etc. as the trusted facts. Facts that are There are two key issues that we need There is no longer a single source of reinforced through an ‘echo chamber’ to reflect on: The first is the conflation the truth. For example, a recent study in of like-minded people in a self selected of experts with ‘elites’. Even here there the US suggests that almost two-thirds virtual network. So if, as experts, we is a further unintended ambiguity – are of people get news on social media, and are not to go the way of the Romans, we really ranting against un-meritocratic around one in five people do so often. we need to acknowledge and change elites? There is a big difference between our game accordingly. We need to someone who has a deep knowledge There is no longer a single improve the way that we engage in about a particular subject being asked source of the truth. The post public discourse, using social media for an opinion, against someone truth democracy is actually a to our advantage, in a language that is with a superficial knowledge with multiple-truth democracy accessible and understood. If we don’t, access to a broad group of people not only are our livelihoods threatened via social media or other outlets. An international study of over 50,000 but the health, wealth and wellbeing of The second related issue is the impact of people in 26 countries found that half the nation is at risk. Put another way, social media on public discourse. When I of people surveyed said they use social my pipe will continue to leak until I was being bought up I would often watch media as a source of news each week, and get the expert plumber to fix it. •

26 | Centre Write a changing electorate

In defence of elitism Liam Booth-Smith tells us why we benefit from elites

liam booth-smith is the European landed leisure class of the imposed on much of the Middle East, Chief Executive at Localis seventeenth and eighteenth centuries for example. Nor do I feel compelled to conducted diplomacy and created ‘respect’ the views of those who advocate cultural and economic ties between on behalf of despotic murderous creeds The elitism which I defend in this nations from which we still benefit or regimes in the name of understanding essay is not the sneering sort. I don’t to this day. Throughout history elites or balance. I have no problem saying hold the belief that because someone is performed functions of general benefit these things because I have not lost born into wealth or privilege they are to the mass populace, whether via arts, sight of the fact dialectic is a positive ‘better’, nor do I think any race, gender culture, infrastructure or defence of the force. A tolerant society doesn’t mean or sexuality is superior to another. The realm. They function well when their all views are equal, just that all views get elitism I believe in is meritocratic. In actions are connected to the betterment an equal enough hearing to determine the words of Susan Sontag, I consider of society’s lot as a whole. Conversely whether they’re worth tolerating. “the only difference between human when they become detached from The rise of anti-establishment politics, beings is intelligence”. Individual the concerns of ordinary people they noticeably often led by members of the exceptionalism and achievement is not appear decadent, aloof and arrogant. establishment, is not anti-elitist. This may a corrosive agent acting on society. It Today elitism, even as a belief in strike some as jarring but take a moment might generate discord, even hostility, exceptionalism, individual achievement to reflect. Can anyone credibly claim but it is not wrong. and reward, has become a dirty word. that Donald Trump is not a member of The distinction between defending Depressingly we seem to have forgotten an elite? Or even Jeremy Corbyn for elitism and defending elites will be that elitism, in its most noble form, that matter? It is precisely because they central to your understanding of my is our insurance against mob tyranny are members of an elite they have been argument. Western liberal democracies and a guarantee that a minority voice successful. They both pass Bertrand have in recent years, in the most demos will be heard. Burke saw this tension Russell’s evidence against interest by vernacular, given traditional elites a right in the French revolution, Mill later virtue of being nominally contrarian. old kicking. The UK’s vote to leave the shared a similar sentiment, via De Anti-establishment politics is as much European Union, Donald Trump’s rise Tocqueville, in his work On Liberty. anti-egalitarian, with its concern over a to the Presidency of the United States, Damningly, many liberals have lack of prevalence, hierarchy and status the Five Star Movement in Italy, Syria surrendered elitism in favour of socially in society, as it is any judgement on in Greece, and even Jeremy Corbyn’s inoffensive egalitarianism. William A. elitism. Intuitively people know they hold over the British Labour party Henry’s 1994 polemic, of the same title are not all equal: To be told otherwise is stand testament to the collective feeling as this essay, put it succinctly when tedious, to be told truthfully is liberating. that our ubiquitous ‘system’ is rigged arguing such inoffensiveness robs us The question of who tells such truths against the many in favour of the few. of the confidence to objectively rank similarly induces a palsy of candour. Yet elites, in and of themselves, are not cultures and ideas. There is a difference Naturally our political elite should inherently wicked. We benefit from them between a society where men and follow Kafka’s advice and bare the in all sorts of ways, from the enjoyment women are treated equally versus one intense obsessions of their soul. After of watching a favoured sporting team which treats women like chattel with all, many get elected on the pretence to our education system which sees which to barter. I have no problem in of possessing this agenbite of inwit, knowledge and outlook shared between calling the former, ostensibly our liberal but given the opportunity to express it the minority elite teachers and majority democratic culture, objectively superior shows remarkable caprice. Preferring population pupils. Even the maligned to the medieval Islamist fantasy being instead to designate increasing

Winter 2016 | 27 a changing electorate

>> numbers of problems as ‘local’ or with ‘London’ suggests as much. The without elites. But when they function for the ‘community’ and better dealt capital enjoys natural advantages, we poorly it corrodes the very meritocracy with ‘on that level’. This would be should encourage its success, but denying necessary for a fair and rewarding society fine if it weren’t for the fact we’re the the rest of England the powers and to exist. The answer, therefore, is not to most centralised country in Europe. freedoms it enjoys is anti-meritocratic. bash elites, but make them work more As a result geography discriminates. In this instance, given how far apart effectively. A society which more visibly Our divides can be cartographised as London is culturally and economically reflects the efforts and endeavours of its well classified. The notion of ‘local’, from the rest of England, our political people is one few would argue with, that expressed as a pride of or connection to elite has lashed its own back. it is essentially an elitist vision would ‘where you’re from’, is a kick against the Thus I present the central tension; no doubt strike some as surprising. shins of all elites (political, financial and one cannot have a meritocracy without We liberals need to rediscover our cultural). That ‘elite’ is often prefaced elitism, and one cannot have elitism confidence in such matters and say so. •

We must trust the people Andrea Jenkyns MP on the importance of honesty in politics

andrea jenkyns mp is a candid Yorkshire woman, but actually outcomes have often been a result of Member of the Exiting it is simply in my nature that people political views that, at times, made me the European Union should say what they think and believe, cringe. However, the new political style Select Committee even if that sometimes goes against of politicians telling things ‘as they established ways of doing things. are’ represents a refreshing change for many of our electorates. Whether this For me, it is an honour to write about We need to listen to public is deemed to be populism or simply the honesty in politics. From a young age I opinion, even if this means electorate’s desire to have more honest was taught by my father that honesty is having difficult conversations politicians is much open to debate. an important asset to have, as it gains you We do not need to look far to find the respect of those you are with. Now, as For me, when I reflect on a new a good example: it was effectively a politician representing my constituents, direction in politics I do not see it showcased by our decision to leave the honesty is at the core of my work: I am as being neither populist nor being EU. Through the campaign, politicians always ready to say what I think and against popular opinion. We need to were able to put forward what was believe, even if that sometimes goes against listen to public opinion, even if this initially perceived to be as the publically popular opinion. means having difficult conversations. awkward position of leaving the EU. We are beginning to see this direction Many were pessimistic about that I am always ready to say across the globe, whereby voters’ prospect, calling it a leap of faith or a what I think and believe, disappointment with politicians not walk into the dark - but I found it to be even if that sometimes goes wanting to have an honest conversation quite the opposite. I was thrilled to be against popular opinion with them is resulting in unexpected able to have an honest conversation on election results. But whilst these results how the previously unchallenged status I am fascinated by the current trend may be unexpected for the politicians quo was affecting us. Disagreeing with in politics and I am excited to finally they are a victory for the people. We the European Union and its bureaucratic see that politicians are able to have have seen this occur at home, in the nature and believing that our great frank conversations with their voters. US, in France, Greece and Germany nation is better off outside of it has I have often been referred to as a to name just a few. These unexpected not always been a mainstream stance,

28 | Centre Write a changing electorate

>> especially within political circles. Following the referendum result, I has been denied to the British people. Throughout my lifetime, Conservative saw countless headlines describing it as Furthermore, the referendum sent and Labour governments alike have held a ‘victory for populism’. It seems every a clear message that the majority of pro-European views. This, however, has journalist and politician has their own people believe freedom of movement not affected my life-long disagreement idea of what populism represents. In the does not work. Britain needs a new, with the European project. Campaigning sense that it is a respect for democratic unique and tailored immigration system for a referendum on the European values, the power of people to make that understands the needs of the issue before I was an MP hardened my their own decisions and decide their economy, yet considers the strains on disagreement with the political union own futures, then I agree that the Brexit our public services. Labour’s reluctance in Brussels. In those days, I would go result was a victory for populism. The to fill the Shadow Immigration Minister door-to-door talking to people in what referendum allowed the people to make role is naïve. As happened across the was to become my constituency, Morley one of the most important decisions of Atlantic, people will support those and Outwood, asking them for their this generation. It trusted them to choose they believe are taking their opinions opinions on the European Union. Most the direction their country would go in. seriously. Labour’s denial of people’s of them shared my view that it was a genuine fears on immigration is a threat protectionist anchor, holding us back We must, as Randolph Churchill to the legitimacy of our political system. from a truly global outreach, while once said, “trust the people” To conclude, there are many depriving us of our sovereignty at home. definitions of populism. In this The tide turned in our favour in the end, If we believe that populism is a article I have outlined how I see it: but as an MP I am proud to say that I representation of the people’s feelings an understanding of the need to take was frank about this discussion from the towards policy and government, then public opinion seriously. We must, as outset, even when it was an unpopular Brexit sent a clear message that must be Randolph Churchill once said, “trust opinion to have. I was passionate about listened to. British people are frustrated the people”. Brexit sent a clear and being honest in my views and thoughts, with issues that the EU has kept out optimistic message that we want to take and it was this that truly allowed of our control. The right to make laws control of our future and our destiny me to represent my constituents. specific to our nation’s needs and values and this message must be respected. •

The world is better than you think Johan Norberg examines the unprecedented progress made over the past decades

johan norberg is a malnutrition, illiteracy, child labour and War, crime, disasters and poverty are Swedish historian and infant mortality are falling faster than at painfully real, and during the last decade the author of ‘Progress: any other time in human history. Life global news media has made us aware Ten Reasons to Look expectancy at birth has increased more of them in a new way – live on screen, Forward to the Future’ than twice as much in the last century every day, around the clock – but they as it did in the previous 200,000 years. are not new, they have always been The risk that an individual will be with us. The difference now is that I’ve got some good news for you, and exposed to war, die in a natural disaster, they are rapidly declining. Today they some bad news. Let’s start with the good, or be subjected to dictatorship has are the exceptions – horrible, wide- because we need it right now. become smaller than it was in any other ranging exceptions that affect, hurt At the moment, we are witnessing epoch. A child born today is more likely and kill people, but still exceptions. the greatest improvement in living to reach retirement age than his forebears This progress happened because people standards ever to take place. Poverty, were to live to their fifth birthday. got the freedom to explore knowledge,

Winter 2016 | 29 a changing electorate

>> experiment with new technologies is that almost no one gets this. And global and social media there is always and solutions and exchange the results, that has very dangerous implications. something new, disturbing or shocking and so can come up with ever better When I recently tweeted a graph to report on every minute. Disasters ways of satisfying our needs and solve that summarized how poverty, hunger, and human tragedies are not new, but our problems. The individual human child mortality and illiteracy had fallen cell phone cameras are. In combination being is therefore, as economist Julian dramatically in the last 25 years, a British with our natural sense of nostalgia, Simon pointed out, the ultimate woman retweeted it immediately with the and some very real problems like the resource, much more important than addition ”Startling graphics that confirm financial crisis and the migration crisis, all the natural resources we fret about. my general hell-in-a-handcart feeling.” this gives most of us the impression that It’s also a resource that can be mass- She had read the graph upside down! And the world is a more dangerous place produced by low-skilled labour. she thought that it confirmed everything than it used to be. The problem is that she thought she knew about the world. pessimism is politically potent. As H L Every minute that you spend She is not alone. Only six percent of Menchen pointed out, clever politicians reading this article, 100 the British think the world is on the keep the populace alarmed “and hence people rise out of poverty whole becoming a better place. More clamorous to be led to safety”. people believe in ghosts and astrology This development started in Western than in progress. “Doom and gloom, Only 6% of the British think the Europe and North American in the early everywhere”, as a woman on the street world is on the whole becoming nineteenth century, because markets were responded when public radio asked a better place. More people believe in opened and governments were limited. But her to describe the state of the world. ghosts and astrology than in progress since the fall of communism and military It’s not a strange reaction. When I regimes, and the start of globalisation, follow the breaking news I also get Frightened people become more this is being repeated on a much larger the impression that the world is falling authoritarian and protectionist. scale in poor countries. Since 1990 world apart, even though more people died of They want safety at any cost, so hunger has been reduced by 40 percent, terrorism in the 1970s, the proportion of they often turn to strong men and illiteracy and child mortality by half and war fatalities has declined by almost three big governments that offer them this extreme poverty by more than two thirds. quarters, and the number of military coups safety, in exchange for their liberties. Every minute that you spend reading this has been reduced by around 90 percent. To a Trump, a Putin or a Le Pen. article, 100 people rise out of poverty. The problem is that this often results And it’s not just the poor of the world The role of the media is to tell in intolerant policies and attacks on who benefit. The more people who can us about the most shocking and open societies and free trade – which make use of mankind’s accumulated dramatic thing that happened in happen to be the factors that contribute knowledge to contribute more science, the world in the last few hours the most to human progress. technologies and business models, the So this is a weird period in time, when better off we all are. It’s difficult to That’s because the role of the media is we are making faster progress than ever invent the cell phone or a vaccine against to tell us about the most shocking and before, but the lack of recognition of measles, but once it’s been done, it’s dramatic thing that happened in the world this progress results in a rise in nativism easy to use it everywhere. Foreign trade in the last few hours. That is what we and populism that is threatening to has increased the purchasing power of want to know, after all, as the problem- undermine it. It’s not the old debate Western consumers by almost 50 percent. seeking species that we are. And this about whether the glass is half-full or And since I grew up in the early 1980s, means we will always hear about awful half-empty, it’s about one group thinking we have seen tremendous improvements things, and almost never think about the that the glass is not sufficiently full, in technology, in everything from progress that has been made. The risk of and in frustration deciding to break it. treating cardiovascular disease to the famine in northern Nigeria is news, but To make the world safe for further internet, the leading pollutants have been the fact that 8 million Nigerians have been progress, we have to recognize and tell reduced by 75 percent and homicide liberated from chronic undernourishment the story about the amazing progress rates have been halved. And oh, we’ve since 1990 is just statistics in an people make when they are allowed to had another ten years of life expectancy. academic report somewhere. be free. That’s the good news. The bad news And since we now live in a world with We cannot take it for granted. •

30 | Centre Write a changing electorate

Is the power in the members or the money? Professor Tim Bale on whether political party membership is important for winning elections

tim bale is a Professor of Is there any evidence to link growth is shown by the wealth of survey data Politics at Queen Mary in membership with, say, electoral on party members that my colleagues, University of London success or more responsive policies? Paul Webb and Monica Poletti, and I What is it that members do – or are have collected for our ESRC-funded supposed to do – for a political party? party membership project, it shows We live in a golden age of political Is it inevitably positive or are there that they are, almost irrespective of participation. Hard to believe it, I know. some downsides to people joining? party, better-off and better educated, But when it comes to people joining These are questions worth asking, and of course much more ideological political parties, it’s true – or at least especially in the light of what’s happened and interested in politics, than those half true. to Labour in the last couple of years. whose doors they knock on or On the one hand, huge numbers Cast your mind back to the 2015 whose phone numbers they ring. of people have joined UK political election: Ed Miliband, we were told, parties in the last year or two, stood a stronger chance of making it If we zoom out from SW1, we bucking a European-wide decline into Downing Street than many people see that party members can that most experts had assumed was imagined because his party had a much and do still have a very positive as inexorable as it was ubiquitous. better ‘ground game’ than did David role to play in British politics On the other hand, the surge we’ve Cameron’s. While the Prime Minister seen recently only looks impressive and his colleagues were amassing a Politicians and party staffers are well because it’s occurred after decades war chest that they could spend both aware of this dirty little secret, which is in which membership had – bar the during and, perhaps more crucially, why, traditionally anyway, they have paid occasional blip – been dropping, before campaigning officially began, far more attention, when formulating sometimes like a stone. We are still, Ed’s grassroots were supposedly out both policy and campaigns, to their the pessimists are right to remind us, on ‘the Labour doorstep’ having ‘five own intuitions and expertise – and, of nowhere near the levels we saw back in million conversations’ with voters. course, to opinion polls – than they the early 1950s. And the Conservative Well, it’s possible that they may have have to the often very unrepresentative Party, which could claim to be the been - but little good it did them. views of their own foot soldiers. That biggest political party this country had The Conservatives, as we know, not is not to say, however, that even in the ever seen when its membership officially only beat Labour easily but won a Conservative Party (which has always (and not altogether convincingly) completely unexpected overall majority. preserved its leadership’s autonomy by peaked at 2,805,032 in 1953, is arguably In other words, if elections come steadfastly refusing to adopt the internal in rather less rude health in this respect down to members vs money, money democracy which is the norm in most than its main rival, Labour, which may well be the winner. But even other parties) members have no influence now boasts some 600,000 members more importantly, if a party’s message at all. After all, one only has to think of to the Tories’ guesstimated 150,000. isn’t resonating with voters, then no Brexit to realise that pressure from the amount of voter contact, whether party in the country, when combined If elections come down to it be canvassing by members or via with pressure applied simultaneously at members vs money, money Facebook through Party HQ, is Westminster, can help paint a Tory Prime may well be the winner going to make much difference. Minister into a corner from which he And anyway, we need to remember can escape only by doing something he But should this gap really worry us? that most members of political parties would earlier have regarded (and must Are we too ready to assume that having don’t think or sound like the voters surely regard now) as utterly stupid. lots of members is always a good thing? they’re trying to mobilise. Whatever else In his classic work on the distribution

Winter 2016 | 31 a changing electorate

>> of power within British political Conservatives, although not for parties out from SW1, we see that party parties, Bob McKenzie, a Canadian like the Lib Dems and the Greens – a members can and do still have a very academic who became one of the nation’s smaller and smaller proportion of the positive role to play in British politics. favourite political pundits back in the party’s funding only served to reinforce Many of them are actively involved in days of black and white television, noted the common wisdom that, unlike big community work and local governance, that, although Labour’s constitution donors, they could be ignored. often standing as (or at least supporting) made it look more democratic and Now, it appears, everyone spoke the councillors who do unsung work, therefore more responsive to members too soon. Partly as a reaction to the day-in-day-out, for all of us. than the Tories, the reality was rather apparent control freakery of New In this, they also continue to provide different. But what happened to the party Labour, and partly as a reaction to the the training grounds and constitute the in the 1970s and 1980s, when the left unexpected loss of the 2015 election and recruitment pool from which many temporarily seized control of the levers the uninspiring continuity candidates of those who aspire to the national of power from the bottom up, suggested competing to succeed Ed Miliband, the stage emerge. Moreover, they form the he’d rather overplayed its informal (but party’s membership (and not just those so-called ‘selectorates’ whose approval nonetheless institutionalised) elitism. who joined after the election either) those with loftier ambitions have to Still, we all thought that normal service decided the answer to its problems seek – a privilege which, by the way, had been resumed after the devastating lay on the left. By electing Jeremy our party members surveys suggest election defeat Labour suffered in 1983. Corbyn and giving him a mandate for a grassroots members are loathe to cede Indeed, the centralisation of power platform whose appeal to activists lies either to their leadership or to the Labour experienced from the late in inverse proportion to its appeal to wider public in the form of primaries. eighties onwards, culminating in the floating voters, it has provided a perfect Not all party members, of course, manifestly top-down rule of Tony Blair illustration of why mass membership are so involved. Many of them, as and Gordon Brown, suggested there isn’t necessarily an unalloyed good our surveys show, do next to nothing would be no return to what some on – at least for a party which hopes to for their parties apart from pay their the right of the party clearly regarded stand some chance of governing a subs – and as those responsible for as the bad old days of badly-dressed small-c conservative country with a collecting those subs will confirm, blokes in branch meetings and on the sometimes vicious print media and a lots of them don’t even do that! But conference floor telling their leaders first-past-the-post electoral system. active or passive, members remain an what to do. The fact that party members This, it must be said, is a very essential, if sometimes awkward, part provided – as was also the case for the Westminster-centric view. If we zoom of Britain’s precious democratic life. •

32 | Centre Write a changing electorate

The demise of mainstream media Ros Taylor warns us about the alternatives

ros taylor is the would occasionally veer into populism, broadcaster’s temerity. But the modern Managing Director because that was how it sold papers. anti-MSM narrative berates the press of LSE Brexit The trick was to manipulate it to your for excluding a mass of the population own ends. What has changed – on both from its reporting. It is no longer (if it sides of the Atlantic – is the emergence ever was) of the people; it stands apart “Crooked media … They [the New of a populist discourse that dismisses from the people, and remote from York Times] continue to cover me the press as staffed by a liberal elite (for their concerns. Trump’s attacks on the inaccurately and with a nasty tone.” – the left, it can also be a neo-liberal elite, media likewise play on the frustration Donald Trump on Twitter. or a capitalist elite: the nomenclature of the unheard and excluded: after his Petulant, furious, bitchy: Donald varies, but the implication is the victory, the Kremlin-funded Sputnik Trump’s broadsides to the mainstream same.) A rising consensus argues that News told readers “MSM ‘experts’’’ media (“#MSM”) – triumphantly it (at least) needs urgent reform or (at had failed “to hear the cries for change vindicated during the long night worst) is unnecessary, and doomed from the despised ‘little people’.” of November 8 – were as regular to wither on the shrinking vine of a feature of his Twitter feed as dwindling advertising revenue. Decrying the failings of the the #CrookedHillary hashtag. In the UK, the anti-MSM discourse media is a healthy part of a Journalists raised their eyebrows has occasionally found a home on the healthy democracy; berating it at the impudence. Well, we’re not right, but it has largely played out on as institutionally rotten speaks of raising them now. Everyone is at it. Twitter and Facebook among supporters a rising sense of social anomie “Just listen to the way a lot of of Jeremy Corbyn. Frustration is politicians and commentators talk expressed in re-tweets of inadequate or Decrying the failings of the media about the public. They find your misleading coverage and the hashtags is a healthy part of a healthy patriotism distasteful,” said Theresa #WeAreHisMedia, #DontBuyTheSun democracy; berating it as institutionally May, who got her job largely thanks or #BiasedBroadcastingCorporation. rotten speaks of a rising sense of to several newspapers’ passion More recently, The Canary news social anomie – a breakdown in for Brexit, at the Conservative site has taken up the narrative: “The the belief that the media are Party conference. Jeremy Corbyn, BBC’s bias has an obvious origin, (even occasionally) capable of who owes little to the mainstream and a groundbreaking academic just representing one’s concerns. Social media, has not attempted to hide his brought it to light”, the site reported in media – which grants us the freedom contempt for “press harassment”. October, blaming Tony Blair’s influence of an endless search for others on the Corporation’s appointments like ourselves, who understand us, Before we rejoice in the demise and its determination to reflect “what who articulate our fears and anger of the myth that the media can goes on in Parliament” rather than better than we do ourselves – has ever truly represent the people, “a huge number of people who want precipitated that rupture in trust. In consider the alternative left-wing policies in some areas”. some instances, the fury is justified. Again, the frustration with BBC And cutting out the middleman saves The disdain is nothing new: Alastair reporting finds an ironic echo in time amid a proliferation of available Campbell has long reserved a special Campbell’s fury at the Corporation’s news and opinion. But before we place in hell for the Daily Mail. But handling of the David Kelly affair. rejoice in the demise of the myth that Campbell was once a journalist himself. Virtually every administration has the media can ever truly represent the The tabloid press, it was understood, expressed indignation at the state-funded people, consider the alternative. •

Winter 2016 | 33 bright blue politics

Why I’m a Bright Blue MP We need to expand accessibility of opportunity, argues Nusrat Ghani MP

nusrat ghani mp is a In their minds, hard work has led that the skills people have match the Member of the Home to nothing, while skyscrapers in jobs that are available. But at an even Affairs Select Committee distant cities continue to grow higher more basic level, it is about making and shine brighter. Modern work sure every individual is able to access patterns, and the photoshopped and every opportunity. And that is why it The Oxford English Dictionary has glittery lives played out by their was a Conservative Home Secretary, announced its international word of the metropolitan contemporaries on Theresa May, who put the fight against year to be “post-truth”, defining it as social media, have left them behind. modern slavery on the agenda; that is “relating to or denoting circumstances in why it is a Conservative government which objective facts are less influential We need to free up every individual that is carrying out an audit of racial in shaping public opinion than appeals to to live to their full potential disparities in public services, the emotion and personal belief.” without barriers or exploitation, first of its kind; and that is why it something on which Bright Blue is the Conservatives who are asking Freedom is defined not merely rightly places a high value independent schools to do more to as the absence of barriers, but share their advantages with others. the accessibility of opportunity Here at home it is the same, and it is There remain taboos which must why I am a Conservative, and a Bright be addressed too. That is why I 2016 has indeed been the year in Blue conservative at that. Though some am pushing for an extension of which the populace has talked back are privileged to reap the rewards of extra-territorial jurisdiction for the to the establishment. It started with capitalism already, only a conscientious prosecution of so-called “honour” Brexit, when the British public went capitalism will truly work for everyone. crimes, and for substantial reforms against the grain and decided to We need to free up every individual to, if not abolition of, Sharia councils fight their own corner. In America, to live to their full potential without which are so damaging to women’s Donald Trump latched on to the barriers or exploitation, something on rights – because opportunity must be growing belief that Washington which Bright Blue rightly places a high for everyone. Bright Blue, through its misunderstood the electorate, value. In a multicultural Britain with a human rights project, recognises how channelling Narendra Modi’s ability flow of people and talents, One Nation tackling discrimination and unequal for mass mobilisation in the Indian Conservatives have a crucial role to treatment is key to empowerment election two years ago by targeting play, because creating one nation from and access to opportunity. audiences through pocketbook issues. many cultures requires good, pragmatic In France, Marine Le Pen’s populism and conscientious government. Last year we were the builders; next is expected to take her to the final two As the left moralise and preoccupy year, we must be the enablers in next year’s presidential election. themselves with the idea that the best The ‘American Dream’ runs like a way to help the disadvantaged is through Populism and anti-establishment thread through US society. Freedom state ownership and redistribution, politics are the antithesis of One is defined not merely as the absence conscientious capitalism recognises Nation values. We want to enable of barriers, but the accessibility of that removing the gap between rich and the individual, not hold them back, opportunity. For many US voters, 2016 poor is best achieved through economic and to avoid populism surging even was the year in which they abandoned freedom, competitive globalisation further in Britain we need to make their hopes and belief in post-industrial and individual empowerment. sure that we enable every individual. society as a vehicle of upward social That starts with ensuring that every Last year we were the builders; next mobility through hard work. child gets the best education, and year, we must be the enablers. •

34 | Centre Write bright blue politics

Trust thy neighbour James Dobson discusses the drivers of anti-immigration rhetoric

james dobson is a resonance with voters was driven by has found that in communities with the researcher at Bright Blue economic concerns. They contend that most diverse population, neighbours increases in immigration reduce the trust each other around half as much as employment level of the native population they do in communities with the most 2016 has been seen by many as a watershed and reduce wages. Yet, there is scant homogenous population. Neighbourhood political year: The rise of populism, the evidence for this. In a telling section of trust is viewed by many social scientists decline of the elites, and the birth of an account by Daniel Korski, a former as a reliable indicator of integration. so-called ‘post-truth’ politics. First came advisor to David Cameron, he recounts There is some evidence that lower levels Brexit, then the rise of Donald Trump. the negotiations which took place with of trust may have had an impact on the Commentators should be wary of linking EU leaders prior to the referendum. decision of the British people to leave the the two results too closely. Leaving the Korski reveals that Number 10 attempted EU. The British Election Survey asked European Union was a position supported to convince them that the UK required UK voters whether most people in their by many sensible members of both the immigration controls due to the economic community can be trusted, or whether you Conservative Party and Labour Party, costs of immigration. In response, the EU can’t be too careful. It found a clear division while, by election day in the United States, leaders contended that the UK economy between those who said that most people there were almost no MPs in Westminster was growing, the UK was almost at full can be trusted, amongst whom 40% voted willing to publicly endorse Trump. employment and that European migrants Leave, and those who said you can’t be However, the two elections did share paid more tax and used fewer public too careful, 64% of whom voted Leave. one common feature: a sharp focus on services than British citizens. Number 10 In the weeks following Trump’s election immigration control. tried to find convincing evidence to counter victory, evidence is yet to emerge of the In the UK, voters told Ipsos-Mori that this, but were unable to. It was true. relationship between neighbourhood immigration was the most important So, if this anti-immigration rhetoric is trust and Trump’s victory. Yet evidence issue during the referendum, even more not being driven by economic concerns, from Trump’s primary victory, when important than the economy. For Leave then what is driving it? Some have he claimed the Republican nomination voters, it was particularly crucial, with attributed it simply to racism. It is certainly for the Presidential election, shows that over half reporting it to be one of the possible that this was the motivation he was more likely to win in states with most important issues, compared to 33% of some Leave voters and some Trump low levels of social connectedness. of all voters. The official Leave campaign voters. Yet, to attribute the campaigns’ Commentators should always be wary was not shy of focussing on the issue: It victories to racism seems pessimistic. It of attributing any complex electoral claimed that a vote to Remain was a vote requires us to believe that huge numbers phenomenon to one factor. Yet it seems for “uncontrolled immigration”. In the of American and British voters are either possible, even probable, that low levels US, 70% of voters cited immigration as racists or too ignorant to identify racism. of neighbourhood integration played “very important to their vote”, while 79% Others have attributed the growth in a role in both Brexit and Trump. For of Trump supporters said the same. The anti-immigration rhetoric to cultural any ideology to succeed, it must be Trump campaign was even more bullish in concerns. One of the most pressing cultural prepared to admit its weaknesses. Over its use of immigration. Trump rallies became concerns is the issue of integration in the last three decades, the West has noted for their chants of “build the wall” our communities. There is a significant enjoyed an unparalleled growth in while the Republican nominee promised body of evidence which suggests that wealth but it may have come at some to ban all Muslims from entering the US immigration may have some negative costs. We must be conscious of the Some have argued that this anti- effects on community integration. The importance of our communities and immigration rhetoric and its apparent American Professor Robert Putnam do all we can to ensure they thrive. •

Winter 2016 | 35 bright blue politics

Rebels with a cause: the fossil fuel divestment movement Sam Hall on whether climate change protesters may be undermining their cause

sam hall is a researcher for future investments by reducing their on the grounds that they help create at Bright Blue share prices. There is no available, or cost- a ‘fossil fuel stigma’. This may cost effective, financing for new drilling. And, companies new contracts, deter so the theory goes, carbon-intensive coal, prospective employees, or scare off Young people were always the true anti- oil, and gas are left in the ground. The potential customers. It may even lead to establishment rebels. Kicking against the phenomenon started in the US, but it has governments introducing new fossil fuel authority of their parents. Questioning the already crossed the Atlantic, with some regulations. If institutions with the moral norms of earlier generations. Challenging major UK institutions, like Kings College force of the Church of England (which vested interests. But in the era of Brexit London and Newcastle University, divested in July 2015) refuse to invest in and Trump, this has changed. Anti- having divested in the past year. fossil fuels, it sends a powerful signal. establishment sentiment is now associated These are not new tactics. Similar But this effect may not be so with older, working class voters. Young campaigns have been prosecuted against straightforward. Yes, the public is people, instead, seem to be choosing the tobacco companies. Researchers from sympathetic. A clear majority is concerned status quo options: Remain and Hillary the Smith School at the University of about climate change – recent government Clinton. So what has happened to the Oxford have looked at how effective polling suggests this could be over 70%. anti-establishment activism of the young? they are. Taken on their own terms, the But the way the message is expressed, With climate change, young people answer seems to be ‘not very’. Only and the messenger, will not resonate still reveal their rebellious streak. And, a tiny proportion of the capital raised widely. And in this case, the messengers arguably, with good reason. If, in a few by fossil fuel producers comes from are radical left-wing students engaged in decades’ time, average global temperatures universities and pension funds. There protests on their university campuses. rise to more than two degrees above is also plenty of demand from ‘neutral’ So could divestment in fact be helping pre-industrial levels, the youth of today or ‘unethical’ investors for the divested to stigmatise action on climate change? will be the ones affected by frequent shares. What’s more, by removing It seems like it could be, certainly extreme weather events. Climate change is the voices of responsible investors, amongst the most sceptical group that the ultimate symbol of intergenerational some shareholder pressure for a more needs to be convinced: conservatives. unfairness, as older generations burn climate-aware business strategy is lost. Research by Climate Outreach has fossil fuels, warming the planet to the This is not to say that investors shown how radical, left-wing, anti- detriment of future generations. It is seen shouldn’t be wary of climate risk in their growth climate activism alienates by some young activists as an example portfolios. There is now strong evidence conservatives. Climate activism, they of corporate irresponsibility, with major of the danger of ‘carbon bubbles’. The argue, too often fails to speak to fossil fuel producers, despite knowing the Carbon Tracker project estimates that conservative values like responsibility, environmental impact of their product, between 60-80% of the reserves of integrity, and family security. Seen continuing to pollute the planet. And, publicly listed companies must be left in this light, divestment campaigns although most governments around the untouched, if dangerous levels of warming could actually be undermining world have plans to cut emissions, for the are to be avoided. Assuming government efforts to tackle climate change. idealistic young, the progress is too slow. policy is introduced to achieve this, then The young rebels have a good One of the forms taken by youth climate fossil fuel investment starts to look very cause. Responsible investment, which activism is divestment campaigns. The idea risky. This process is already happening. takes account of climate risk, could behind divestment is that activists force Both the UK and France have this effectively limit carbon emissions. But major institutions, such as universities, to year announced a date for phasing out they should reconsider their tactics sell all their shares in fossil fuel companies. coal from their electricity supplies. if they are to emulate the success This then starves the company of capital Some defend divestment campaigns of their older counterparts. •

36 | Centre Write bright blue politics

Bright Blue research update An update on Bright Blue’s research programme by Nigel Fletcher

nigel fletcher is The election of Sadiq Khan as the through our research work we will be the Head of Research new Mayor of London earlier this seeking new and imaginative policy at Bright Blue year heralded a new direction for the solutions to respond to the challenges city, after eight years of Conservative the last tumultuous year has presented. administration. In September we Human rights questions have been To say 2016 has been a year of major launched an essay collection on given added impetus, with many political drama is something of an The future of London, published people questioning how leaving the understatement. Developments in the with the think tank Localis. EU will affect the UK’s domestic UK and elsewhere have seemed to and international systems of rights heighten a pre-existing strand of anti- To say 2016 has been a year protection. In this context, we will be establishment, populist public feeling, of major political drama is publishing an expert paper considering with which politicians and policy-makers something of an understatement what the proposed new British Bill of were already struggling, and which are Rights should contain. This will help explored elsewhere in this issue. Contributors to this work included inform the ongoing work of our Human All these events will have an the former Mayor, and new Foreign Rights Commission, whose final report impact at home and abroad, across Secretary Boris Johnson, the Chair will be produced later in the year. the policy spectrum, and at Bright of the Government’s Social Mobility We will also be maintaining our focus Blue we looking particularly closely Commission Alan Milburn, and on green conservatism, presenting the at how the changed landscape will Professor Tony Travers, amongst results of polling on the attitudes of affect our key research themes: social others. The collection covered issues conservatives to environmental issues. reform, integrated Britain, green ranging from economic growth and The new government’s commitment conservatism, and human rights. transport to social mobility, housing and in this area has also been the subject The combination of Brexit and culture, and will, we hope, contribute of great interest, given the changed the election of Donald Trump has to the debate about how London circumstances in which the UK now led many to question if and how can stay a step ahead of other world finds itself, and this research will the UK can retain its commitment cities after the UK leaves the EU. help provide some political context to the environmental agenda and Meanwhile our Conservatism and to inform the debate. Whilst that in particular the target to reduce human rights project continued its climate of opinion is important, it carbon emissions by 80% by 2050. work, exploring how conservatives can is more literal climate change that We continued our research on green think about human rights in a positive remains the central challenge facing conservatism and energy by focussing way. To this end, members of our governments across the world. This on a specific challenge, that of home Human Rights Commission held an has been put into stark relief by the energy improvements. In our report oral evidence session in November. This sceptical attitude of the incoming US Better homes: incentivising home heard from relevant academics, experts administration, and it is against this energy improvements, published in and organisations, whose contributions backdrop that we will be publishing August, we argued that the end of will feed into the next stage of the an expert policy paper looking at the Government’s Green Deal on commission’s work, which will focus the role the UK should continue to 2015 has left a deficit of policy in this on developing new policy options. play, examining in particular how area, and suggested practical steps, The world in 2017 will be much environment concerns can be embedded such as ‘Help to Improve’ loans to changed from how many would have in the Government’s international encourage and support progress. predicted just 12 months ago, and development programme.•

Winter 2016 | 37 Growing the future The Woodland Trust’s six priorities for the post-referendum UK Parliament:

Real protection for irreplaceable ancient 1 woodland habitats Environmental security through a new land use 2 policy with woods and trees at its core Trees for people, so everyone can get close to 3 nature whatever their wealth or background 4 A secure future for the Public Forest Estate Increased tree planting, turning around the 5 lowest planting rates in a generation Green infrastructure at the heart of new 6 built development For further information, please visit our website woodlandtrust.org.uk or email us at [email protected]

The Woodland Trust logo is a registered trademark. The Woodland Trust is a charity registered in England and Wales number 294344 and in 38 | Centre Write Scotland number SC038885. A non-profit making company limited by guarantee. Registered in England number 1982873. 9316 11/16 brexit corner

Towards a post-Brexit lose-lose situation What are our European allies saying on Brexit? Anne Mulder tells us what he believes to be the upcoming challenges the UK faces in the negotiations

anne mulder is European as the only solution to the Brexit – as the consideration of merely economic Affairs Spokesman for they do with every problem. On the costs and benefits. A country like the VVD, the centre- other side, across Europe there were Germany, for example, is not only in the right Liberal Party politicians who took this opportunity EU to sell as many BMWs as possible, in the Netherlands to plead for EU-exits of their own, but also because it wants to keep the including the Netherlands. Both groups EU-27 together for historical reasons. of politicians are harmful to the broader The Brexit referendum was a reality check. support of the European Union, though Brexit referendum resembled If the people feel that an institution no only the latter does so intentionally. the choice of getting on an longer works for them, they are perfectly We, the centre-right Liberal Party, aeroplane without knowing its comfortable rejecting it. Even one as vast want a European Union that solves destination. Or worse, without and consequential as the EU. That lesson real cross-border problems that people even knowing if it has wings Growing demands that politicians focus more are facing and struggling with every on the reality and concerns of ordinary single day, such as security, migration, Not only in Germany, but also in people such as migration, creating growth international trade, and climate change. other countries, political groups are and jobs, instead of the detached and Our approach to European politics is not on the rise that want their country to the future abstract reality that tends to dominate determined by an institutional vision of leave the EU. The current governments The Woodland Trust’s six these institutions. the EU, but by the needs of real people. of these countries might be politically Among certain British politicians motivated not to give the UK a good priorities for the post-referendum Reports prior to the Brexit- there are high expectations of the UK’s deal, even if it is against their own UK Parliament: referendum showed that The future outside the EU. The question of economic interests. Giving the UK a Netherlands would suffer course is whether those expectations good deal would be giving tailwind Real protection for irreplaceable ancient more from a Brexit than are reasonable. The voting on the Brexit to these groups. This could explain 1 woodland habitats most other EU countries referendum resembled the choice of why the EU is represented during the getting on an aeroplane without knowing negotiations by politicians from Brussels Environmental security through a new land use The British have been among our its destination. Or worse, without who seem to take the result of the 2 policy with woods and trees at its core closest friends and allies for as long as even knowing if it has wings. Not until Brexit referendum almost personally. Trees for people, so everyone can get close to anyone can remember. We were strong negotiations have started will we get The UK government seems to want nature whatever their wealth or background supporters of UK’s EU-membership an idea of what the UK will be like to take back control over migration and 3 bid in 1973 and have partnered on outside the EU, or what the EU will be to take back its legislative autonomy. A secure future for the Public Forest Estate many important issues ever since, such like without the UK. I am pessimistic That is only possible in a so-called ‘hard 4 as strengthening the internal market about the results of the negotiations, Brexit’. The Brits, renowned as tough Increased tree planting, turning around the and reforming the European budget. because I am afraid they will end up in a negotiators, are likely to be able to suffer lowest planting rates in a generation 5 Reports prior to the Brexit-referendum lose-lose situation, for several reasons. the consequences even if negotiations Green infrastructure at the heart of new showed that The Netherlands would During its EU Membership, the UK lead to a hard and painful deal. 6 built development suffer more from a Brexit than most has been very pragmatic, always making British departure from the European other EU-countries. The Netherlands cost-benefit analyses and also often Union will leave a power vacuum For further information, please visit our was therefore disappointed with therefore opting-out. I’m not sure if in Europe, that other countries will website woodlandtrust.org.uk or email us at the result of the referendum. the UK takes into account that other fight to fill. The European negotiation [email protected] Directly following the vote there were Member States have a different mentality after triggering Article 50 will the usual suspects who saw more Europe towards the EU, one that transcends perhaps be less about the Brexit

The Woodland Trust logo is a registered trademark. The Woodland Trust is a charity registered in England and Wales number 294344 and in Scotland number SC038885. A non-profit making company limited by guarantee. Registered in England number 1982873. 9316 11/16 Winter 2016 | 39 brexit corner

>> itself and more about establishing of March as the deadline for triggering good exit deal. This unpreparedness, a new balance of powers in the EU. Article 50, the UK has placed itself in a on top of the divergence in the PM’s weaker bargaining position. The British own party, does not promise a good I am pessimistic about the PM not only needs to negotiate Brexit outcome for the Brits or for the EU. results of the negotiations, in Brussels but also in her own party. Of course nothing is certain yet, but all because I am afraid they will these variables could lead to a lose-lose end up in a lose-lose situation To be honest, I have the situation. The challenge is to keep the impression that the UK, at damage as limited as possible. In any case Furthermore, Article 50 was not this moment, does not have a I expect – regretfully - that the Brexit intended to make life easy for Member negotiating strategy whatsoever negotiations will take a lot of energy States that want to leave. My political and manpower which now cannot be party agrees with the Council and the To be honest, I have the impression used in solving the big cross-border Commission that for the negotiations to that the UK, at this moment, does not problems the EU and our people face. start, it is up to the Brits to take the first have a negotiating strategy whatsoever. For now, we are waiting for the step and to invoke the Article. Prime By entering the negotiations unprepared UK to develop a realistic approach Minister May seems to be pressured by and with no strategy, the UK will most towards the upcoming negotiations. members of her own party into making likely lose momentum and crucial This will be in the interest of rushed judgements. By setting the end time that it needs in order to secure a both the UK and the EU. •

Maintaining good relations with our European allies The Rt Hon Mark Field MP on strengthening European party relationships

the rt hon mark field that our European friends and allies rebuild relationships with some of our mp is the Vice-Chair of are delighted with the UK’s decision to key partners that had diminished since the Conservative Party leave the EU. Indeed many of those who we Conservatives left the EPP in 2009. feel most let down are our closest allies, Secondly, albeit rather paradoxically, the particularly in Sweden and Denmark, firm decision of the British public has To coin a now well-worn phrase, who have always welcomed the UK’s extracted much of the poison from our whilst the UK may soon be leaving the role as the awkward large player in day-to-day interactions in Brussels. For European Union, we shall not be leaving Europe, willing to ask the difficult many Europeans, the UK has been a Europe. Indeed our Government has questions. Nonetheless, the referendum reluctant partner and source of frustration made clear over the past few months has had two distinct, positive effects rather than a willing and engaged member that it sees an opportunity for the nation on our relationships with natural, of the team. There is now a feeling that now to step up rather than step back centre-right allies on the continent. we can talk more openly and honestly from our international relationships. – maybe even constructively - about the This makes it a fascinating time to be the It would be foolish of us to pretend future without feeling that we are pulling Conservative Party’s Vice Chairman for that our European friends and uncomfortably in opposite directions. International Affairs, a role I have held allies are delighted with the The strengthening of party-to-party since summer 2015. My responsibilities UK’s decision to leave the EU relationships opens a useful additional include managing our relationships with avenue of communication during the centre-right sister parties in Europe and First, it has allowed us to put to bed the negotiations ahead, but also allows us to across the globe. EPP/ECR rivalry of recent years in the carry out the political groundwork for It would be foolish of us to pretend European Parliament and beyond, and future alliances once the UK has formally

40 | Centre Write brexit corner

>> left the European Union. Whatever issues high up the agenda for German This makes it all the more important happens once we have extricated voters, the German Chancellor will be that we Conservatives keep our finger ourselves from the Union, the UK will in no mood to expend much energy on the party political pulse and develop naturally maintain a strong ongoing next year on negotiations for Brexit. a much more intricate understanding relationship with the continent – in trade Nor will she be inclined to offer the of the personalities and personal and security, of course, but also through same level of access to the single market relationships the innumerable personal ties that so without some commitment on our part at play in these most fascinatingly many of us have to our neighbours. to freedom of movement. How to make turbulent of political times. As we have this compatible with Theresa May’s seen from the recent US election, we This makes it all the determination to restrict such movement live in an era when assumptions can more important that we will no doubt be a tough matter to very quickly be turned on their head. Conservatives keep our finger overcome but I nonetheless believe on the party political pulse there is scope for an accommodation With 2017 heralding critical that will give us ultimate control of Dutch, French and German For my part, I am half-German and our borders and strengthen the link elections, the changing have spent many years building strong between migration and work. European political landscape links with counterparts in Germany, It may be aggravating to British will have as much influence on particularly within Angela Merkel’s business that our Prime Minister will our Brexit deal as anything we CDU party. Our friends take it as a provide no running commentary on decide on here in London given that our successful trading and Brexit, or seek to map out a clear plan diplomatic relationship will continue for our negotiation. However what Developing critical party political but also caution us about the tricky now must be understood is that our relationships provides us with one way in general election ahead for Mrs Merkel exit from the European Union will be which we can be more nimble and flexible in 2017. With economic and migration – fundamentally - a political process. in the fast-changing world before us. •

Soon we will be free Jonathan Isaby puts forward the positive case of leaving the single market

jonathan isaby is the for a Remain vote who, disappointed the British people who voted in such Editor of Brexit Central at the result, have spent the months unprecedented numbers to leave the EU since the referendum demanding in order to take back control of our laws, that the Government pursue what our money and our borders, freeing us to On 23rd June more people voted for they have called a “soft Brexit” - negotiate trade deals around the globe. the UK to leave the European Union generally deemed to mean some form As far as the single market is concerned, than have ever voted for anyone or any of arrangement whereby the UK it could not have been clearer during the proposition at any election or referendum could somehow leave the European referendum campaign that a vote to Leave in British electoral history. Theresa May’s Union but remain a member of the would mean leaving the single market. Government therefore not only has an single market and customs union. And you needn’t take my word for this. unprecedented mandate to deliver the That’s not “soft Brexit” - it’s “non- During the weeks of debate running wishes of the British people - it has a Brexit”, and any attempt to keep the up to the vote, prominent Remain responsibility and duty to do so. UK inside the single market and/or campaigners like David Cameron, There are some who campaigned customs union would be a betrayal of George Osborne and Angela Eagle

Winter 2016 | 41 brexit corner

>> were all explicit in saying exactly that. Some have consciously muddied customs union would be a non-starter. It is our membership of the single the waters to confuse single market In the not-too-distant future we will market that has forced us to accept the membership with single market access. be freed from the strictures of the EU unfettered free movement of workers There is no question that we will be able and its uncompromising straitjacket throughout the 28 member states, and to retain access to the single market after of one-size-fits-all legislation and retaining it would prevent us from we have rescinded our membership: heavy-handed regulation and there controlling immigration. Note that I say virtually every other country in the is every reason to be positive and “controlling” rather than preventing: we world enjoys that - it is merely a question optimistic about the UK’s future. have a long, proud history of welcoming of the terms under which we will do so. As a globally-facing, outward-looking, immigrants to this country who make As for the customs union, our free-trading, independent nation, massive contributions to the British departure from it is another fundamental we will of course maintain friendly economy and the fabric of the nation. aspect of Brexit. Leave campaigners made relations with our European neighbours it clear that one of the many benefits of and indeed cooperate with them where As a globally-facing, outward- Brexit would be the ability to do our appropriate. But once sovereignty looking, free-trading, independent own free trade deals with whomsoever is restored to Westminster, power nation, we will of course maintain we choose around the world. It was will once again lie with elected British friendly relations with our European always clear that continued membership politicians over the laws of the land, neighbours and indeed cooperate of the customs union would prevent us how British taxpayers’ money is with them where appropriate from doing that as we would still be tied spent and our trading arrangements to the EU’s Common External Tariff. with the rest of the world. We But that element of control is important. So any arrangement that leaves us in the live in exciting times. •

Friends without benefits Joe Slater on what sort of future relationship Britain should have with the EU

joe slater is a student tendencies previously hidden below the seeks to begin a process, to examine at Durham University surface. For conservatives the referendum the key themes of the campaign and and the winner of The should mean something quite different. sketch the outline of a new relationship Tamworth Prize, our to address them. It won’t fix every annual essay competition Firstly it should be understood as problem or solve every contradiction. It a demand for change. Before we can is a starting point, not a silver bullet. think about our new relationship It is hard to overstate the scale of change with Europe, we have to understand Democracy currently occurring in Britain, Europe, why the old one wasn’t working. This A discussion of democracy may seem and the West. 2016 is the year of Trump means acknowledging the diverse set of an odd place to begin; after all it was and Sanders; Corbyn and Farage; grievances held by Leavers and Remainers frequently relegated behind issues like Brexit and perhaps the demise of our alike. Conservatism has been so resilient immigration and the economy. In truth, liberal consensus. Just as in 1834, the because it respects the desire for change the poor health of our democracy was at year of the Tamworth Manifesto, these and seeks a middle ground between the heart of the vote and fixing it should challenges require answers. For many in the ideologues who would take us to be at the centre of our negotiations. The Britain the vote to leave was a national the extremes and those happy to carry slogan of ‘Take back control’, the anger at embarrassment, exposing nationalistic on with business as usual. This essay Brussels bureaucrats and

42 | Centre Write brexit corner

>> the suggestion that Britain has “had with the EU. The evidence is clear that the businesses certainty in the short term. enough of experts”. The success of these majority of voters are unhappy with the After all, there is little chance of us campaign devices shows us the lack of control inherent in European free renewing our democracy and building cleavages present in our political system; movement. When trust on immigration bridges across our divides in the midst the lack of faith in our institutions, a is low it bleeds into other areas: support of a recession, particularly when it is basic distrust of politicians, economists, for populist right-wing parties, creeping the most vulnerable who suffer in such journalists and others. xenophobia and prejudice, and anger at circumstances. elites and governing institutions. Although It is highly unlikely that we will be 2016 is the year of Trump and trust is low, that doesn’t mean Britain able to negotiate a comprehensive and Sanders; Corbyn and Farage; has become an anti-immigrant nation. bespoke trading agreement with the brexit and perhaps the demise Polling for British Future suggests a more European Union within the deadline set of our liberal consensus nuanced picture: widespread support for by Article 50. Instead we should seek to high-skilled workers and international build short-term confidence by agreeing The political scientist Francis students but less for large numbers of a basic economic relationship, possibly Fukuyama has theorised how liberal low-skilled migrants. This kind of system inside or adjacent to the European democracies should seek to ‘get to would be likely to have the support of Economic Area (although establishing Denmark’ - how they should renew those on both sides of the campaign. a clear reform to freedom of movement and restore their ailing institutions. His is a must). In the long term this allows belief that liberal democracy rests on Although trust is low, that us to reform our relationship from a a balance of political accountability, a doesn’t mean Britain has become position of economic strength and take strong, effective state, and the rule of an anti-immigrant nation advantage of the many opportunities to law is hardly revelatory, but Britain is reinvigorate our liberal trading economy. currently a long way from Denmark. Our new relationship with the EU We need a relationship with Europe must be built on restoring faith in our Our new relationship should seek allowing us to take more decisions at immigration system - it is a litmus test for to renew faith in democracy, create home; so that British politicians can be a functioning democracy. We require a a coherent system for immigration, accountable when things go wrong and system with a higher sense of government and protect our economic changes need to be made. That means control and an ability to slow and, in interests in the short term and rebalancing our current relationship, not certain circumstances, stop migration from internationalise them in the future retreating into a bunker or rejecting any Europe. Beyond that we should seek to slight infringement of our sovereignty. maintain visa-free travel to the European A path forward Voters care about big issues like a sense of Union and, more intriguingly, consider This essay has not argued for ‘hard’ control over immigration, the economy, a new Commonwealth-based travel or ‘soft’ Brexit. Instead it has echoed and the primacy of British courts. In area. For decades British politicians have the Tamworth Manifesto in seeking to seeking such reform we can take a knowingly obfuscated about their limited understand a moment of great change first step towards restoring confidence power to manage movement, and there is and espouse the ideas and values our in our democratic institutions. now an opportunity to rebuild trust and negotiators should prioritise. In any support for an open migration system. respect, building a new relationship with The success of these campaign the European Union will be a process not devices shows us the cleavages Economy an event, it will be managed by different present in our political system; the For many Remain voters the economy leaders and multiple governments. This lack of faith in our institutions, was the defining issue of the campaign. essay has argued that our new relationship a basic distrust of politicians, Many of them felt unhappy about should seek to renew faith in democracy, economists, journalists and others immigration and lacked trust in the create a coherent system for immigration, EU, but decided that the risks to the and protect our economic interests in the Immigration economy were simply too high. While short term and internationalise them in the The issue of immigration was the most the warnings of an immediate economic future. With these values and interests in controversial element of the referendum, collapse have proved to be ill-founded, mind there is little to fear from Brexit, in and it will be key to our new relationship our renegotiation should seek to give fact there is much to gain. •

Winter 2016 | 43 brexit corner

Keeping close Dr Charles Tannock MEP on maintaining close ties with Europe post-Brexit

dr charles tannock pledge to abolish the rule. Following contributed to; maintaining unfettered mep is the Conservative the Brexit vote the new administration access to the single market that is unique in MEP for London has since honoured this commitment allowing British companies to trade across and will be proposing legislation. 27 EU countries; and continued cooperation The referendum, whilst not legally on CFSP & CSDP foreign affairs and Nearly five months after the UK electorate binding, was clearly conducted on an security matters, an area I can decided by referendum to leave the understanding that its result would be meaningfully contribute to after 15 European Union we are still far from respected. There was, however, no accepted years as Conservative Spokesman on discovering what shape this will take. The view of what leaving the EU would look the subject. most vocal proponents of Brexit leading up like and the terms for leaving were poorly All of those requirements point clearly to and during the campaign have now fallen outlined. That the overall UK majority to to a deal that would see the UK remain curiously silent or have simply continued leave was a narrow 1.9%; that Scotland a member of the Single Market and the to make ever bolder claims about what the and Northern Ireland voted to stay; Customs Union on leaving the EU. I was future holds. that in London 59% voted to remain delighted to see the signing of the Canada and that there was a majority to remain Free Trade Deal (CETA), which will boost It is by no means perfect but it has in all but five of 33 London boroughs, UK trade with Canada by over 20% over brought peace and prosperity to point to the need for a ‘soft Brexit’. the next two years and so we would do Europe for the last half century and is I have represented London as a well to retain this and the other 60 EU a force for good in a modern world in Conservative MEP for 17 years and I trading agreements, post-Brexit. Whilst which globalisation makes cross-border will continue as long as the UK remains I believe such an arrangement would be cooperation ever more necessary an EU member. That there was a clear inferior to the current situation, this solution majority in London for the UK to remain delivers Brexit without the economic and I have been a long-time proponent of emboldens me to oppose those seeking diplomatic damage of a ‘Hard-Brexit’. the underlying purpose of the European to interpret the referendum as a means to If continued membership of the Customs Union, and campaigned for a Remain vote. completely detach Britain from Europe. Union is not achievable, I advocate using as a It is by no means perfect but it has brought negotiation position Article 112 of the EEA peace and prosperity to Europe for the I was delighted to see the signing Treaty to conclude a ‘Norwegian Lite’ model last half century and is a force for good of the Canada Free Trade Deal for the UK to have a cap on migration as in a modern world in which globalisation (CETA), which will boost UK currently enjoyed by Lichtenstein, but with makes cross-border cooperation ever more trade with Canada by over 20% full access to the Single Market. However, necessary. Its reversal or disintegration does over the next two years this would not resolve the negative effects on not augur well for good global governance. supply lines, as the Nissan case highlights, The EU referendum was conducted in My main priorities over the coming nor the dangers of a hard customs border a manner and on terms which I believe months are to press for continued between the UK and the Republic of Ireland. gave in some areas a significant advantage passporting rights for the City, important If the Supreme Court upholds the to the Leave campaign. The exclusion of if London is to retain its position as the Brexit judgement on the triggering many Brits living in EU countries - due to world’s financial capital; continued access of Article 50 I look forward to these the rule that revokes a UK citizen’s right to intelligence-sharing and databases which issues being fully debated in Parliament. to vote after having resided outside of the will be key to counter-terrorism work and Whatever the future relationship between country for more than 15 years - was one fighting cross-border crime; an ability to Britain and the EU, the Government has of the most egregious, and was contrary fill skill-shortages in the construction and some very tough choices to make that to the Conservatives’ 2015 manifesto health-care sectors that EU migrants have will affect us for many generations. •

44 | Centre Write Keeping the Best of Europe Cathy Warwick on the need to keep EU midwives and protect employment protection post-Brexit.

Cathy Warwick, Chief Executive at the Royal College of Midwives and a registered midwife

Tens of thousands of people working in easy for the NHS to recruit doctors, nurses, there will be a temptation to try to stay the NHS today are from EU countries other midwives and other healthcare professions competitive by sacrificing protections to than the UK. In England alone that includes from across the EU. attract prospective investors to open new over 10,000 doctors, almost 22,000 nurses, factories and start new businesses here. and well over 1,300 midwives. Keeping our maternity units, hospital wards and clinics If ministers give in to that kind of pressure, we will see British workers suffer to make The Government is yet to staffed should be more confirm to these people, up for the barriers to trade and additional important than political who provide care to cost of doing business that will be caused immigration targets. by Brexit. The RCM wants to see no dilution hundreds of thousands of us of employment protections, not just for every day, that they can stay The Government has undertaken to bring midwives or NHS staff but for all workers. here post-Brexit. all existing EU law into British law through its Great Repeal Bill. We are assured that Fifty two per cent of voters That is wrong. the rules that come from the EU that underpin the protections we enjoy at did not back Leave so that The Royal College of Midwives believes the work – the right to paid time off to attend their working conditions Government should give them an explicit antenatal appointments, for example, or would worsen. and unequivocal assurance. They deserve paid maternity leave – will remain. But for better than to be treated as poker chips in how long? Brexit will cause disruption for many. There the exit negotiations ahead. is a moral duty on the Government to act There will be plenty of demands in the decisively to reassure those whose lives Letting existing EU staff remain is not future for the Government to weaken and have been thrown into doubt. It should enough however. In the long term, the dilute protections. If we end up outside also commit to continued protection for Government must ensure that it remains the Single Market or the customs union, workers in any post-Brexit Britain.

You can read more about the Royal College of Midwives at: www.rcm.org.uk

Centre Write Article_1.indd 1 29/11/2016 10:16 books and arts

Books & Arts

Kind of Blue: A Political Memoir by Ken Clarke

reference to Clarke is complete without to department, feeling occasionally zac spiro is a is a that obligatory description) his insights bothered enough by something to put member of Bright into the politics of the past forty-five his foot down, but never genuinely Blue and former years must surely merit some attention. seized by the awesome responsibilities he Graduate Research The problem is that Clarke’s trademark possesses. This sense of ease - a gliding Intern at Bright Blue insouciance - described in his own words and seamless success that effortlessly, as “a peculiarly laid-back and stress-free and occasionally accidentally, propels personality” - robs the book of much of everything Clarke touches to wherever By even his own admission, Ken Clarke the drama of the time. To some extent, he wants it to be - is most apparent when has led a charmed life. Born during the conveying this is the purpose of the Clarke claims to have made a mistake. Second World War, he made his way political autobiography: definitionally, For example, after three years of to Cambridge University where he politician’s lives are only interesting when serving as the opposition spokesman was President of both the Cambridge they are involved in interesting events, for pensions and social security under Union and the university’s Conservative or when they are themselves interesting Margaret Thatcher, Clarke goes Association. After leaving, he joined the people. The diaries of Alan Clark - a to the leader, “concerned that [he] Bar and made a living as a barrister until particularly colourful minister during the might soon be regarded as a one-issue 1970, when at the age of 30 he won his latter half of the 1980s - were fascinating man”, to ask for a change of post. He seat in parliament, where he remains to for their revealing political portraits. describes the query as “reckless folly this day. Alan Johnson’s memoir, This Boy, is an born of ambition” rather than any real On the way he has held a dazzling extraordinary depiction of the poverty affinity for a specific alternate job. array of offices, including as Secretary the young boy struggled through. Nevertheless, Thatcher acquiesces. of State for Education, Health Secretary, Yet Clarke rules out writing about More frustratingly, Clarke devotes then Home Secretary, Chancellor of the his upbringing with the book’s very an entire half-page to the financial Exchequer, and Lord Chancellor. He first sentence, saying he “never difficulties he would face were he also found time to run for the leadership thought very much of politicians who invited to work as a parliamentary of his party no fewer than three times. make a great deal of their poor-boy under-secretary upon the Conservatives’ But that’s enough of the biographical origins.” A mere 20 pages later, he has 1979 election victory. Not being details. Clarke isn’t in government now, travelled through 18 years of his life privy to Clarke’s concerns, Margaret and first held one of the great offices and found his way to Cambridge. Thatcher offers him an under-secretary of state over 20 years ago. If you’re Nevertheless, if the book is to be about role anyway. Clarke accepts and the reading this review - and therefore government and policy, then let it be consequences go unmentioned. inclined to buy his book - you probably about government and policy. However, The inconsequential way that roughly know who he is already. Clarke’s laid-back style infuses his Clarke describes events also seeps As he is at the end of his career, description of his time in office with a into his policy decisions. Opponents publishing a political memoir might light sepia tone and a hint of aimlessness. of government positions, especially make sense. After all, as one of the last Clarke seems to wander gently when they are unionised, are “absurd”, Tory “Big Beasts” (no article or passing from conflict to conflict, department “ludicrous” or in states of “near-

46 | Centre Write books and arts

>> paranoia and victimhood”. When Imploding Britain’s membership of after an appointment to the Transport he does give his reasons without the the EU, the institution that dominated department resulted in protestations of leering spectre of unionisation, they the relentlessly pro-Europe Clarke’s his ignorance of the brief. The response can leave you wanting. For instance political career and thrice smothered his from the Prime Minister was: “My his explanation for cutting legal aid for chances of being party leader, was “the dear boy, you’ll soon pick it up.” divorce cases, is: “one spouse, usually worst political mistake made by any If only there had been more of this. It’s the wife, would be devoid of assets British Prime Minister in my lifetime.” difficult to know whether Clarke was and… able to obtain legal aid in order to His self-deprecating and candid account simply unwilling to put the detail into mount numerous claims against a former of calling Theresa May a “bloody difficult writing, or whether external pressures husband who would be obliged to pay for woman”, as well as congratulations forced a political career spanning nearly any resistance.” for his sniper fire at Michael Gove, is a half a century into a single volume. In any That being said, bees wandering into delight to read. Clarke also has a talent case, it’s a worthy read, lit up by sadly too Clarke’s headgear don’t frequently for precisely capturing the character of few flashes of illumination. • leave. There is real passion in his words his interactions - that is, when he supplies as he casts fire at David Cameron for enough detail to distinguish them. An Kind of Blue: A Political Memoir, Ken Clarke, Macmillan; 515pp; £25 holding the referendum on Europe. early phone-call with Margaret Thatcher

2016: The year in political books Many great books have been published this year. Diane Banks provides an overview

diane banks is a literary Indeed, it has not been unknown for a first book to look forwards and offer agent and a non-executive book to be published on the basis of the constructive advice and opinion and director of Bright Blue income from serial or extract rights. could come from no better authority. The key “inside stories” from Remain and Leave respectively were Craig Oliver’s The point is surely that Sir Malcolm, One thing which sets books apart from Unleashing Demons (Hodder, October) like many politicians, is a pragmatist, other forms of media is their notoriously and Arron Banks’s The Bad Boys of Brexit not a conviction politician, which long lead time – usually 18 months from (Biteback, October). More impartial makes for an interesting distinction deal to publication. This means that the accounts came in the form of Owen in itself, and is never going to publishing industry is not best placed to Bennett’s The Brexit Club (Biteback, produce any lurid revelations react quickly to current events, so 2016 October); Gary Gibbon’s Breaking represented a particular challenge. Point (Haus, September) and, most Of course, the biggest publishing event comprehensive and well reviewed of all, in the wake of the referendum was the Following June’s referendum, Times political editor Tim Shipman’s All sale of David Cameron’s memoirs, which, a number of books had to be Out War (William Collins, November). it transpired he had been working on “crashed into the schedule” Like many people, I’ve only read the for some time with Daniel Finkenstein, as we call it in the business serialisations of these frontrunners. The producing over 50 hours of audio tapes. one which I plan to read in full is Daniel After signing with celebrity agent Ed Following June’s referendum, a number Hannan’s What Next: How to Get the Victor – a starry choice – it was rumoured of books had to be “crashed into the Best from Brexit, just out from Head that the goal was to sell world rights schedule” as we call it in the business of Zeus (November). Although still for £4m, which would put the deal in – often raising the question of whether published quickly (I imagine that two the ballpark of Tony Blair’s. I’m not the project is actually a book and not an drafts were in the pipeline depending entirely sure where the rumour started, extended newspaper or magazine feature. on the referendum result), this is the but a deal with William Collins was

Winter 2016 | 47 books and arts

>> announced in October with a figure say that I enjoyed Sir Malcolm Rifkind’s Ireland (OUP, March), Roger Hermiston’s of £800,000 on the publishing grapevine Power and Pragmatism: The Memoirs of All Behind You, Winston: The Secret Life – unsubstantiated, but significantly less Malcolm Rifkind (Biteback, July) despite of Chuchill’s War Ministry (Aurum, April) than the original figure doing the rounds. the Times calling it “a plodding account and Candice Millard’s Hero of the Empire: The scene for the US election was set of his life in which no detail is too dull to The Making of Winston Churchill (Allen by two studies of Hillary Clinton: Karen record” and similar verdicts from elsewhere. Lane, September). The great man provides Blumenthal’s Hillary: A Biography of I was honoured to host an ‘in conversation’ endless inspiration. David Cesarani’s Hillary Rodham Clinton (Bloomsbury, with Sir Malcolm following publication Disraeli: The Novel Politician (Yale, April) January) and James D Boys’s Hillary which was a real highlight of the year. looks like an intriguing, if academic, read. Rising: The Politics, Persona and Policies The point is surely that Sir Malcolm, like Two titles which particularly caught of a New American Dynasty (Biteback, many politicians, is a pragmatist, not a my attention were Michael Brock and January), followed by Mark Lander’s conviction politician, which makes for an Eleanor Brock (eds)’s Margot Asquith’s Alter Egos: Hillary Clinton, Barack interesting distinction in itself, and is never Great War Diary 1914-1916: The View Obama and the Twilight Struggle Over going to produce any lurid revelations. from Downing Street (OUP, March) and American Power (WH Allen, February) Ken Clarke’s Kind of Blue (Macmillan, Kate Andersen Brower’s First Women: and David Greenberg’s Republic of October), named for his love of jazz, was The Grace and Power of America’s First Spin: An Inside History of the American a long time coming. Publishers and agents Ladies (Harper, May). First Ladies have Presidency (WW Norton, March). had been chasing him for years so there really begun to take their place in history was much excitement when he finally in the last couple of years, pioneered by Ed is not the first politician or former took the plunge, with rights reportedly Sonia Purnell’s excellent biography of politician to enter the show, but this selling for £430,000. At one point there Clementine Churchill in 2015 and Anne promotional opportunity for the were rumours that he would not finish de Courcy’s study of Margot Asquith the book is certainly unprecedented the book, but that clearly didn’t come previous year. I personally had the privilege to pass. At the time of writing it’s sold of working on two biographies which Where books really come into their a respectable 15,500 hardbacks and has put the interwar political scene in wider own, though, is analysis in retrospect. enjoyed a prominent serialisation in the context, examining movers and shakers who Recent history was examined in David Times, which would have made a good exerted “soft power”: Damian Collins MP’s Laws’s The Coalition: The Inside Story dent in the rumoured £430k. Reviews study of his predecessor, Charmed Life: of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat elsewhere haven’t been great, however - The Phenomenal World of Philip Sassoon Coalition Government (Biteback, March); the Telegraph called it a “damp squib”. (William Collins, July) and social historian Tom Bower’s Broken Vows: Tony Blair Sayeeda Warsi’s The Enemy Within: Sian Evans’s Queen Bees: Six Brilliant and The Tragedy of Power (Faber, March) and A Tale of Muslim Britain (Allen Lane) Extraordinary Society Hostesses Between Anthony Seldon and Peter Snowdon’s was originally mooted for September the Wars (John Murray, September). Cameron at 10: The Inside Story 2010-2015. but has now been moved to March I’d like to give two special mentions. Then there is the political biography 2017. Whatever the reason for this, Michael McManus’s Edward Heath: Portrait or memoir. The year opened with the publishing in spring will prevent it from of a Remarkable Man (Elliott & Thompson, Telegraph’s Rosa Prince’s Comrade Corbyn: getting lost amongst Brexit books and July) reveals the depth and talents of an A Very Unlikely Coup (Biteback, January) Christmas gift titles. This is going to be an often overlooked and misunderstood prime which sold modestly. Another quiet but interesting publishing event next year. minister who has been the unfortunate intriguing one was John Bew’s Citizen Finally, the political memoir took a subject of negative press recently. This Clem: A Biography of Attlee (Quercus, new turn with Ed Balls’s Speaking Out: book was published quietly, but is a May) which I understand is well worth a Lessons in Life and Politics (Hutchinson, must-read for aficionados of political look. Touted as the first and only biography September) – published to coincide with biography. And finally there is Ben of Nicola Sturgeon, David Torrance’s his debut on Strictly Come Dancing. Wright’s Order, Order! The Rise and Nicola Sturgeon: A Political Life (Birlinn, Of course, Ed is not the first politician Fall of Political Drinking (Duckworth, September) has sold a decent 2,500 copies at or former politician to enter the show, June) which is reviewed elsewhere in the time of writing - more than either of the but this promotional opportunity for this issue. This is the one to read if you author’s previous accounts of Alex Salmond. the book is certainly unprecedented. really want to know what has gone on Two of the big beasts from the Thatcher Looking back in time, 2016 saw three new in parliament over the years – and it era published their memoirs this year. I must Churchill books: Paul Bew’s Churchill and makes a good Christmas gift too. •

48 | Centre Write books and arts

Exhibition: Abstract Expressionism The Royal Academy, London

william humphries depicting the inner world of the artists’ be viewed from six inches and in low is an Associate Fellow emotions provides a powerful new form lighting – conditions that the curators of Bright Blue of representation, where the viewer is have admirably recreated in the room invited to feel and not merely to see. dedicated to his work. The result is that one’s entire field of vision is dominated The Royal Academy’s exhibition on Abstract expressionist painting should by the painting, allowing one to become ‘Abstract Expressionism’, open until 2 be seen not simply as a picture immersed in the subtle gradients of colour. January, offers an impressive collection of but the site of an artistic event works from the foremost exponents of the The need to externalise some movement. Paintings by Jackson Pollock, Process is thus as important as product inner emotion – through colour Mark Rothko and Willem de Kooning and abstract expressionist painting should and motion – unites the collection unsurprisingly form the backbone of be seen not simply as a picture but the site and delights the viewer the collection, both in quantity and of an artistic event. This is nowhere more visceral impact. However, the addition evident than in Pollock’s drip paintings The curators have done an impressive of less well-known figures, such as where the apparently spontaneous job of creating an exhibition that Barnett Newman, Clyfford Still and Ad layering of colour expresses, according will delight both admirers of abstract Reinhardt, demonstrates the breadth of to the artist, ‘energy and motion made expressionism as well as those who have visual interpretations that fall within the visible’. Although visually different, never experienced it before. The early movement’s capacious church. Barnett Newman’s ‘zip’ paintings, in galleries provide an introduction to the which a block of colour is interrupted movement, including works by Arshile The focus on depicting the inner by a contrasting vertical line, offer a Gorky that served as a bridge between world of the artists’ emotions similar moment of emotional frisson. European and American traditions in the provides a powerful new form of Elsewhere in the collection, Clyfford twentieth century. The collection then representation, where the viewer is Still, a comparative outsider amongst the moves energetically through time, with invited to feel and not merely to see New York titans, is a surprising treasure. each of the movement’s main exponents Working predominantly from the west given a gallery dedicated to their work. Emerging out of post-war New York, coast of America, Still’s style of painting While the variety of paintings on abstract expressionism can be defined can be categorised in the same colour field display might give one the impression that by a combination of style and method. mode of Rothko and Newman. However, the term ‘abstract expressionism’ is more The erosion of figurative depictions, unlike his contemporaries, Still’s large of a marketing ploy than an actual artistic replaced with abstract colour grouping, canvases arrange colour in torn layers philosophy, the exhibition does well to is perhaps the most obvious visual rather than simple geometric patterns, persuade the visitor that there is something feature of the movement – with Rothko’s evoking at times the majestic romanticism deeper that connects these artists. hauntingly beautiful ‘façades’ pre- of jagged, mountainous landscapes The need to externalise some inner eminent for their emphasis on this kind and at other times the intimidating emotion – through colour and motion – of tonal balance. While this may at times claustrophobia of glacial caves. unites the collection and delights appear bewildering to viewers whose One thing that becomes apparent the viewer. There are well-known appreciation of twentieth-century art ends through the collection is the vast scale on masterpieces and lesser-known surprises with Picasso’s cubist experiments of the which the abstract expressionists work. around every corner. • 1910s, abstract expressionism follows the When viewed up close, the paintings same theoretical models of subjectivity almost pull the observer into the canvas Abstract Expressionism runs until 2 January 2017 at the Royal Academy, London. to their logical conclusion. The focus on itself. Rothko advised that his ‘façades’

Winter 2016 | 49 books and arts

Drinking culture in Commons By Ben Wright

keith tomlinson and sawdust place, sticky with stale is an economic and beer” (p. 80). It apparently had a “Way investment researcher. Out” sign on the wall two inches off the floor, “to guide MPs crawling out on their hands and knees.” Ben Wright entertains us with this This is all good fun, but there well-researched account of the are serious consequences. tragedy and comedy stemming from Eric Joyce, MP for Falkirk, ended political drinking. In doing so he his parliamentary career with a bar makes an interesting case for social fight in Stranger’s. This set in motion drinking to lubricate the wheels a series of events, where allegations of of government, though the usual local union interference with the new destructive effects are also present, Falkirk candidate selection led then but at a sometimes scary level. Labour leader Ed Miliband to radically British Prime Ministers tend to change the process. Each member gradually drink more as their years now had one vote, at the expense of in office wear on, Wright says of MPs, and the new £3 membership Tony Blair and Harold Wilson. swelled membership and paved the Margaret Thatcher enjoyed winding way for Jeremy Corbyn’s takeover of House Tip O’Neill’s visits to Ronald down with her favourite whisky. the Labour Party. But the Americans Reagan, where they could thrash And HH Asquith’s enjoyment can do one better - and then some. out a deal over a drink or two. of good food and wine has even On the other side of the pond, social Then there is the Soviet version of given us the term “squiffy”. drinking amongst US politicians has political drinking: Wright recounts “I have taken more out of alcohol been a good way for opponents to mix Joseph Stalin had no rivals as a sadist. than alcohol has taken out of me,” on friendly terms and thereby find His Defence Minister Nikolai Bulganin said Winston Churchill, who received consensus, because they know and like once said to Nikita Khrushchev, after a case of his favourite 1928 vintage each other. Unfortunately, the more one of Stalin’s infamous hard core Pol Roger Champagne each year from socially awkward Richard Nixon often drinking sessions, “One never knows none other than Odette Pol Roger. drank alone and, following an incident if one’s going home or to prison.” Churchill gently sipped whisky and in 1969, issued a late night order for a Something to keep in mind as we look soda throughout the day and seemed nuclear strike on North Korea. This back at the Cuban Missile Crisis. none the worse for it. Wright observes was quickly countermanded by Henry Ben Wright’s stories of political Churchill’s strong constitution, where Kissinger, but seems a good argument drinking and its ramifications are often such consumption may have finished for a teetotal Commander-in-Chief. funny and, at times, outright terrifying. off most other people, but asks the Perhaps Jimmy Carter’s completely If you are a fan of political biographies, question how would we view this dry White House was a safer choice, if Order, Order adds a distinctly human behaviour through today’s media lens. a bit boring. Pity poor Ted Kennedy, dimension to many of history’s most The Strangers’ Bar in the Houses who enjoyed his tipple, enduring important characters. of Parliament, once nicknamed long meetings or a dinner with the • ‘the Kremlin’ as a favourite Labour Carters. A better example of successful Order, Order! The Rise and Fall of Political drinking domain, is a “sweaty, spit political drinking is Speaker of the Drinking, Ben Wright; Duckworth Overlook; 327pp; £16.99

50 | Centre Write OUR PARLIAMENTARY SUPPORTERS

Lucy Allan MP Jane Ellison MP Kevin Hollinrake MP Oliver Mundell MSP Peter Aldous MP Tobias Ellwood MP Phillip Hollobone MP Sarah Newton MP Stuart Andrew MP Charlie Elphicke MP Kris Hopkins MP Baroness Emma Nicholson Heidi Allen MP Lord Rodney Elton John Howell MP Caroline Nokes MP Edward Argar MP George Eustice MP Ben Howlett MP Mark Pawsey MP Victoria Atkins MP Graham Evans MP Nigel Huddleston MP John Penrose MP Harriett Baldwin MP Suella Fernandes MP The Rt Hon Jeremy Hunt MP Claire Perry MP Lord Richard Balfe The Rt Hon Mark Field MP Nick Hurd MP Rebecca Pow MP The Rt Hon Lord Greg Barker Lord Daniel Finkelstein The Rt Hon Sajid Javid MP Mark Prisk MP Sir Henry Bellingham MP George Freeman MP Margot James MP Dominic Raab MP Richard Benyon MP Mike Freer MP Stewart Jackson MP The Lord Risby Bob Blackman MP Mark Garnier MP Robert Jenrick MP Lord Colin Renfrew Nicola Blackwood MP Nusrat Ghani MP Dr. Syed Kamall MEP Lord James Sassoon Nicholas Boles MP Nick Gibb MP Daniel Kawczynski MP Baroness Jane Scott Sir Peter Bottomley MP The Lord Glentoran Seema Kennedy MP Alok Sharma MP Graham Brady MP Maurice Golden MSP Dr. Phillip Lee MP Chloe Smith MP Miles Briggs MSP The Rt Hon Michael Gove MP Jeremy Lefroy MP The Rt Hon Anna Soubry MP Steve Brine MP Richard Graham MP Charlotte Leslie MP John Stevenson MP Robert Buckland MP James Gray MP Brandon Lewis MP Rory Stewart MP Anglea Burns AM The Rt Hon Damian Green MP The Rt Hon David Lidington MP Graham Stuart MP The Rt Hon Alistair Burt MP The Rt Hon Dominic Lord Ian Livingston Lord Ranbir Suri Neil Carmichael MP Grieve QC MP Jonathan Lord MP Dr. Charles Tannock MEP Finlay Carson MSP The Rt Hon Ben Gummer MP The Rt Hon Lord Ralph Lucas Adam Tomkins MSP Lord Hugh Cavendish Sam Gyimah MP Karen Lumley MP Viscount Hugh Trenchard Alex Chalk MP The Rt Hon Robert Halfon MP Alan Mak MP Anne-Marie Trevelyan MP Jo Churchill MP Stephen Hammond MP The Rt Hon Lord Francis Maude Lord Christopher Tugendhat Geoffrey Clifton-Brown MP The Rt Hon Matthew Paul Maynard MP Tom Tugendhat MP Damian Collins MP Hancock MP Jason McCartney MP Baroness Charlotte Vere Oliver Colvile MP Richard Harrington MP Stephen McPartland MP Robin Walker MP Lord Andrew Cooper Peter Heaton-Jones MP David Melding AM The Rt Hon Baroness The Rt Hon Stephen Crabb MP James Heappey MP Stephen Metcalfe MP Sayeeda Warsi Glyn Davies MP Damian Hinds MP Johnny Mercer MP Dame Angela Watkinson MP Dr. James Davies MP Simon Hoare MP The Rt Hon Andrew Mitchell MP Annie Wells MSP Jonathan Djanogly MP Lord Robin Hodgson The Rt Hon Maria Miller MP Helen Whately MP Flick Drummond MP George Hollingbery MP The Rt Hon Nicky Morgan MP The Rt Hon Lord David Willetts

If you sit in the House of Commons, the House of Lords or the European Parliament and would like to become a supporter, please email: [email protected]

Our Parliamentary Supporters endorse Bright Blue and its aim of strengthening and advancing liberal conservatism. They do not necessarily agree with all the policies and opinions we advocate. The public overwhelmingly supporT assisTed dying

Progressive countries continue to pass compassionate assisted dying laws

19 years of data shows the public and progressive countries have got this right

Conservatives should reform the law on assisted dying

www.dignityindying.org.uk/brightblue

www.brightblue.org.uk