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Brexit: an Analysis of Eurosceptic Mobilisation and the British Vote to Leave the European Union

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Brexit: an Analysis of Eurosceptic Mobilisation and the British Vote to Leave the European Union Brexit: An Analysis of Eurosceptic Mobilisation and the British Vote to Leave the European Union by Kayla McCrary A thesis presented to the Honors College of Middle Tennessee State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for graduation from the University Honors College. Fall 2016 1 Brexit: An Analysis of Eurosceptic Mobilisation and the British Vote to Leave the European Union by Kayla McCrary APPROVED: ____________________________ Dr. Vanessa Lefler Assistant Professor and Adviser Political Science and International Relations ___________________________________ Dr. Stephen Morris Department Chair Political Science and International Relations ___________________________ Dr. John Vile Dean of University Honors College 2 Acknowledgments I would like to thank Dr. Vanessa Lefler for several years of patience, advising, mentorship, and inspiration. Dr. Lefler’s dedication to the field of International Relations has served as a constant motivation and inspiration to me. Thank you, Dr. Lefler, for every office meeting, reference, book suggestion, and for your support for your students and department. Additionally, I would like to thank Department Chair Dr. Stephen Morris for constant and consistent resources in the Political Science and International Relations Department. I would like to thank the Department for funding on a presentation of an excerpt from this thesis, Britain: A Comprehensive Analysis of Britain’s Vote to Leave the European Union, at the Undergraduate Social Science Symposium and the Tennessee Experiential Learning Symposium in October 2016. I would like to also thank the University of Chester in Chester, England for resources during my research in 2015. Furthermore, I would like to thank every funder of my studies while abroad, including the University Honors College. Thank you to every peer and faculty reader of the thesis, as well as to anyone who has ever sat through one of my presentations on Brexit. 3 Abstract In June 2016, Britain narrowly voted to leave the European Union in an in/out referendum on membership. Undoubtedly, the implications of such a vote are unprecedented. Recent mobilisations of Euroscepticism across the European Union have culminated with the first decisive move: Britain’s vote to leave the EU. In the following paper, the implications of Euroscepticism in Britain, as well as briefly discussed in Europe, will be placed contextually in an analysis of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union. The analysis does not intend to argue for or against Brexit, nor does it intend to be a comprehensive and fully-detailed account. In regard to the timing of the vote, many aspects of this paper are transforming and changing as events unfold. As a result, this paper intends to rely heavily on historical implications of Euroscepticism as well as a recent literature on the theories of Eurosceptic voting, demographics, and the history of the relationship between the UK and the EU. The conclusions of the paper wrap up the overall analysis of Euroscepticism, arriving at the conclusion that populist and anti-globalist sentiments driven by political parties such as United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) mobilised Euroscepticism, allowing for a philosophy to transform into effective policy change. Keywords: Euroscepticism, Brexit, European Union, EU, Eurosceptic, UKIP, globalisation, EU Referendum 4 Table of Contents Chapter I: Euroscepticism – Implications and Application Section 1.1: Euroscepticism as a Conceptual Variable…………11 Section 1.2: Uniqueness of British Euroscepticism……………...11 Geography and “Britishness”…………………………….12 Governance……………………………………………….18 Media……………………………………………………..19 Section 1.4: Euroscepticism in Other European Union Countries….21 Germany………………………………………………22 France………………………………………………….24 Section 1.5: European Union Response to Brexit………………….25 Chapter II: Britain’s History with the European Union Section 2.1: Britain’s First Application to Join the European Union….30 Prime Minister Harold Macmillan………………………………..30 Prime Minister Harold Wilson…………………………………..31 Prime Minister Edward Heath…………………………………….32 Prime Minister Harold Wilson…………………………………….33 1975 European Community Referendum…………………………34 Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher………………………………..35 Bruges Speech……………………………………………….36 Prime Minister John Major………………………………………….37 Speech……………………………………………………….38 Liberal Intergovernmentalism Theory……………………………….39 Blair, Cameron, and the Build-Up to 2016 Referendum……………..42 Chapter III: The European Union Referendum - Before the Vote………….43 David Cameron’s Administrative Promise……………………………..44 Analysis of the EU Referendum Act……………………………….52 Government Pamphlet for Remain……………………………………55 Section 3.1: The Campaigns……………………………………………..55 Conservative Party……………………………………………58 Negotiations with the European Union……………………59 Sovereignty…………………………………………61 5 Migrants and Welfare Benefits………………….62 Economics………………………………………62 Competitiveness…………………………………..62 The Rogue Conservatives………………………………………..63 The Labour Party………………………………………………….64 The Liberal Democrats………………………………………………66 The Green Party…………………………………………………….66 Scottish National Party………………………………………………67 Plaid Cymru……………………………………………………………68 Section 3.2: Country Profiles…………………………………………….69 Wales…………………………………………………………………69 Scotland……………………………………………………………….71 Northern Ireland…………………………………………………………73 Section 3.3: United Kingdom Independence Party: Euroscepticism’s Penultimate Moment…74 Chapter IV: The Arguments For and Against Brexit………………………80 Sovereignty, Democracy, and Security……………………………………80 Foreign Affairs………………………………………………………………83 Trade and Investment…………………………………………………….85 Navigating the World Outside Brexit (Pros and Cons)……………………..87 Trade…………………………………………………………………….87 Foreign Relations……………………………………………………….88 Migration: Britons Abroad, EU Nationals, and Special Circumstances……89 Chapter V: The EU Referendum Results (Pages 93-111) East Midlands EU Referendum results (1/2) East Midlands EU Referendum Results (2/2) East EU Referendum Vote Results Chart (1/2) East EU Referendum Results Chart (2/2) London EU Referendum Results Northeast EU Referendum Results Northern Ireland EU Referendum Results Northwest EU Referendum Results Chart (1/2) Northwest EU Referendum Results Chart (2/2) Scotland EU Vote Results Southeast EU Referendum Results Southwest EU Referendum Results Chart (1/2) Southwest and Gilbraltar EU Referendum Chart (2/2) Wales EU Referendum Results 6 West Midlands EU Referendum Vote Results Yorkshire EU Referendum Results Overall Result Leave Vote Distribution Section 4.2: Analysis…………………………………………………………….114 Boston and Skegness/South Holland………………………………………115 Castle Point…………………………………………………………………….116 Thurrock………………………………………………………………………116 Theories…………………………………………………………………………….117 Section 4.3: Aftermath…………………………………………………………….121 Article 50 and Withdrawal………………………………………………………122 Chapter V: Conclusions Appendix Data Set: Region’s Data from European Union Referendum………………130-137 Data Set 2: MP Votes…………………………….138-153 EU Referendum Act: 7 List of Tables, Charts, and Images Tables Table 1: Types of Euroscepticism Table 2: Data Set for Chart 3, Respondent Data for UK Leaving the EU (Good/Bad) Table 3: Results of EC Membership Referendum 1975 Table 4: Members of European Parliament and Brief Notes on EU stance Table 5: Composition of UK Parliament during EU Referendum Debate Table 6: Turnout by age Table 7: Likely Topics for Negotiation in UK Exit Negotiations Post-Brexit Table 8: Alternative Brexit Models Charts Chart 1: % of People in Britain Who Describe Themselves as European (1996 – 2014) Chart 2: Disapproval/Approval Rating of EU’s Handling of Economy (2016) Chart 3: European Views of EU and Brexit (Unfavourable/Favourable) (Good/Bad) Chart 4: 1975 EC Referendum Results Map Chart 5: National Identity in Scotland Chart 6: Chart 6: EU Migration by Nationality Charts of EU Results (Not Enumerated) East Midlands EU Referendum results (1/2) East Midlands EU Referendum Results (2/2) East EU Referendum Vote Results Chart (1/2) East EU Referendum Results Chart (2/2) London EU Referendum Results Northeast EU Referendum Results Northern Ireland EU Referendum Results Northwest EU Referendum Results Chart (1/2) Northwest EU Referendum Results Chart (2/2) Scotland EU Vote Results Southeast EU Referendum Results Southwest EU Referendum Results Chart (1/2) Southwest and Gilbraltar EU Referendum Chart (2/2) 8 Wales EU Referendum Results West Midlands EU Referendum Vote Results Yorkshire EU Referendum Results Overall Result Leave Vote Distribution Chart 7: Percentage of residents with no formal qualifications alongside distribution of remain and leave vote percentage Chart 8: Percentage of residents with higher education alongside distribution of remain and leave vote percentage Chart 9: Percentage of older people by district projection 2024 Chart 10: Turnout vs. Percentage of Over 65s in voting region Chart 11: Percentage overtime March – June 2016 of Immigration Attitudes Images Image 1: UK Government Pamphlet for Remain (2016) Image 2: European Council President Donald Tusk Tweet Image 3: United Kingdom Prime Minister David Cameron Tweet 9 List of Abbreviations and Key Terms Article 50: Provision of the Lisbon Treaty that states how a EU Member State can withdraw from the European Union Brexit: Portmanteau of Britain + Exit, refers to Britain leaving the European Union Common Market: EU group of countries imposing few or no duties on trade with one another and a common tariff on trade with other countries. Euro: the single European
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