Steve Hilton Matt Hancock MP on technology, populism on preparing Britain for the and Tory modernisation rest of the 21st century Centre Write

The robotic revolution

Summer 2016 | 1 caroline spelman mp | matthew taylor | vicky ford mep | matthew elliott Contents

Editorial A click closer Editor’s letter Kulveer Ranger 12 Laura Round 4 Director’s note Technology and ethics Ryan Shorthouse 5 Snooper’s Charter or democratic surveillance? The new economy Paul Bernal 14 Raising expectations for employment A changing childhood Matthew Taylor 6 Sue Palmer 15 Skills for the future A health-care revolution? Alan Mak MP 7 Dr Tania Mathias MP 17 Skype session with... Martin Ford Don’t look up! Martin Ford 9 Lord Hodgson 18 Starting up Britain The Russian Bear? Romilly Dennys 10 Dr Andrew Foxall and Emily Taylor 20

Bright Blue is an independent think tank and pressure group for liberal conservatism.

Director: Ryan Shorthouse Page 28 The Centre Write Chair: Matthew d’Ancona interview: Steve Hilton

Board of Directors: Rachel The Times Johnson, Alexandra Jezeph, Diane Banks & Phil Clarke

Editor: Laura Round Page 6 Matthew Taylor discusses the Modern www.brightblue.org.uk Employment Review

Printers: Aquatint, www.aquatint.co.uk Cover and typesetting: Eleanor Hyland-Stanbrook Switched on Bright Blue politics The Brexit wake-up call Preparing Britain for the Why I’m a Bright Blue MP Christophe Premat 39 rest of the 21st Century The Rt Hon Dame Can Brexit unite as well The Rt Hon Matt Hancock MP 23 Caroline Spelman MP 32 as divide? Anxious about automation? Driving off into the future Sunder Katwala 41 Matthew d’Ancona 24 Sam Hall 33 Bringing broadband to all Bright Blue research update Nigel Huddleston MP 25 James Dobson 34 Tweeting with Trump books & Arts John Higginson 27 Exhibition: Robots Brexit corner Fiona Smith 43 We’re all Brexiteers now All Out War (Tim Shipman) the Interview Matthew Elliott 36 Michael Hough 44 The Centre Write interview: Ensuring creativity reigns Cleverlands (Lucy Crehan) Steve Hilton 28 Vicky Ford MEP 37 Ryan Shorthouse 45

Page 23 The Rt Hon Matt Hancock MP on how Britain can play to its historic strengths whilst looking to the future

Page 32 The Rt Hon Dame Caroline Spelman MP on why she shares Bright Blue’s vision Huffington Post

Page 36 Matthew Elliott discusses how people are putting the referendum behind them

Page 37 Vicky Ford MEP on the future of the Digital Single Market editorial

laura round is the Editor’s letter Editor of Centre Write and Communications Manager at Bright Blue

From the role of digital in the workplace and our social politicians and policymakers to acknowledge the sheer lives to the invisible threat of cybercrime, technological scale and urgency of the task that stands before them. progress is revolutionising the way we work, communicate Whilst we try to grapple with the digital age, Kulveer and live. Academics warn that automation is likely to Ranger (p.12) points out the opportunities digital change cause mass unemployment. In fact, Bill Gates has hinted brings for interaction between individuals and services both at the possibility of taxing robots. Former CIA Director in the private and public sectors. In the UK, the digital John Brennan recently stated that the next spark that technology sector is emerging as a global force, however leads to war won’t occur on the ground or in the air, Romilly Dennys from Coadec (p.10) says that bold action but in the cyber domain. The technological revolution is required from the Government to ensure that one of the is creating just as many challenges as benefits. UK’s fastest-growing sectors can reach its full potential. The A tide of technological change is sweeping through public Minister for Digital and Culture, the Rt Hon Matt Hancock and private life that we all need to navigate. The question MP (p.23), says Government recognises the need for a global is whether politics is keeping up. The Government’s new Britain post-Brexit and stresses the importance of seeking modern industrial strategy recognises the importance out new markets, new methods, and new technologies of developing the digital infrastructure and skills for the that will provide the jobs and incomes of the future. UK to have a thriving digital economy. This is welcome, There are many ethical questions around technological yet for many politicians technology and digitalisation is advancements. Is our privacy adequately protected on the clearly not in their comfort zone. In fact, some Members internet? Is ‘social media’ making us less social? Author Sue of Parliament still refuse to use email. Technology is Palmer (p.15) warns us of the negative effects technology is always going to be ahead of politics, because of its inherent having on children’s development. Lord Hodgson (p.18) urges innovative and fast-moving nature. However, in order to the ethical implications of drone warfare to be considered. stay competitive globally, it is important for politicians Technology is also posing challenges for international to engage more with the subject and to champion the relations. There is a growing awareness that digital age. So this edition of Centre Write explores the cyberattacks are being used to manipulate outcomes technological advancement and the wider implications it of democratic processes. Henry Jackson Society’s Dr has on business, public services, foreign affairs and ethics. Andrew Foxall and Chatham House’s Emily Taylor Matthew Taylor (p.6) updates us on the Government’s (p.20) debate just how much power Putin has. ongoing review of modern employment and touches on I interviewed former director of strategy for David the challenges that have arisen from a changing labour Cameron, Steve Hilton (p.28) about the relationship market. Alan Mak MP (p.7) discusses the Fourth Industrial between technology and politics. Steve argues that people Revolution and what parliament needs to do to help our want more control over politics, especially now that economy tackle the challenge of automation. Indeed, there are technology has allowed them to have much more control over concerns that automation will lead to mass unemployment. other parts of their lives. We also discussed the future of Tory In my Skype chat with American futurist and author modernisation and the Conservative Party under Theresa May. Martin Ford (p.9), he predicts many jobs, including high- This edition of Centre Write highlights how technological skilled jobs, will be lost due to artificial intelligence and revolution is leading us to call into question every aspect advocates a basic income guarantee. Bright Blue’s chair of our lives. I hope the magazine demonstrates both the Matthew d’Ancona (p.24) writes that it’s time for businesses, challenges and opportunities of the digital age. •

4 | Centre Write editorial

Director’s note checking Twitter, some quick employment. The truth is that we research on the internet, looking don’t know what the net effect Ryan Shorthouse up your location on Google Maps of future automation will be on — is now vital to survive and the labour market. Many jobs succeed in the modern world. will be replaced, just like in the There is troubling inequity in access past, but it’s worth remembering ryan shorthouse is the to important technologies – medical that what evidence we do have Director of Bright Blue treatments or high-speed internet, from history suggests that for example. High costs, limited technology — in aggregate terms availability or poor skills are all — generates rather destroys jobs. Oh, to be able to rest, just for a factors that policymakers need to be As for negative psychological while. But no. The Prime Minister — and to be fair are — addressing. effects of technology – from has, surprisingly, called a General But there is a body of thinking lengthy screen time to constant Election. Britain faces its third that now questions whether checking of social media — the consecutive year of national technological advance is in fact evidence around this is, I’m afraid, political scrapping. Liberalism generally positive, highlighting nascent and inconclusive. And may be under attack in the UK negative consequences for the labour what about menacing robots and across the Western world, market and our brains. There are usurping power from humans? but democracy is in vogue. warnings, from respected academics I’ll leave that to sci-fi films. The Prime Minister has framed and mainstream politicians, that Best not to be complacent, of the election narrowly: about giving automation will lead to mass course. Admittedly, technology her the mandate to get the best unemployment. Some scientists, has enabled new problems possible Brexit deal. Our future albeit a minority, are worried about and exacerbated existing ones: relationship with the EU is now a how screen time changes cognitive cyberattacks; terrorism; child vital and dominant issue in British functioning, especially in children. abuse; the pornification of sexual politics. But Tory modernisers As artificial intelligence develops, relations; the polarisation and need a new mantra: stop banging there are also concerns about vitriol of political discourse. on about Europe all the time. human power relative to robots. The challenges policymakers must There are urgent public policy There are two problems grapple with constantly change, issues — from the sustainability with this techno-scepticism. sometimes because of their success, of our social care system to First, technological advance but often because of shifts and decarbonising our economy — has sat alongside – indeed, in surprises. Politics — the priorities, that require deeper thinking and many instances, created – vast the personnel and, most of all, the discussion from conservative decision improvements in most people’s public – change too. In the past makers. The Tory election manifesto health, opportunities, education few years, rather quite a lot. is unlikely to be expansive, but the and their working and living The response to flux should Prime Minister should offer some environments over the past few not be to resist – or, as David bold and original policies on other centuries, across the world. Cameron put it, to want to areas, especially social reform. Second, the gloominess about “stop the world and get off”. A major issue that policymakers technology tends to be speculative Conservative politicians and are increasingly discussing is rather than factual. For decades, policymakers should deal with the the impact of technology on our Luddites have prophesied that world - recognises its successes politics, society and economy. machines will make most human and deal with its challenges Being switched on – responding labour redundant. But here we - as it is, not how we think it to emails and WhatsApp messages, are, in 2017, with record levels of was, should or will be. •

Spring 2017 | 5 The new economy

Raising expectations for employment Matthew Taylor discusses his government-commissioned Modern Employment Review and the changes that are needed in the labour market

matthew taylor is exploitative and opaque. way of pursuing change. As many Chief Executive of the But perhaps more importantly, studies, including a recent report RSA and chairs the addressing aspects of the labour by the Centre for Public Impact, independent Review of market systemically, will be a set of have suggested, legitimacy is Employment Practices in strategic shifts that we will urge the a key ingredient of success. In the Modern Economy Government to pursue over the next essence my review is about how five to ten years. These shifts will to improve the quality of work Most policy fails. The more complex be complicated and emergent so our in our economy. But is this yet the challenge the more likely the aim is to describe destinations not to a goal to which government, let failure. At the Royal Society of define the precise route. They include alone the wider public subscribe? Arts, we think hard about how to the case for a fairer, more coherent improve the success rate. We have and sustainable way of taxing work One good aspect of the recent concluded that policy suffers from along with the need for government bruising NICs row is that the different, but often reinforcing to enhance the entitlements and Employment Review has high problems; on the one hand it’s too services available to the self- profile. The wise thing now scatter gun, and on the other it’s employed, both directly and by would probably be to dampen too path-dependent. Our response working with commercial and third- expectations. Instead I’m is captured in the injunction to sector partners. But the shifts we are planning to raise them policymakers to ‘think like a system likely to advocate also range from a and act like an entrepreneur’. commonly agreed spine of generic When I was a Downing Street So when the Prime Minister asked employability skills, which can adviser in the mid-noughties the me to chair a review of modern then be overlaid on apprenticeships, principle of ‘work first’ was firmly employment it was an exciting university courses, in-work training entrenched in Whitehall. Any attempt opportunity to apply that approach. and lifelong learning, to expanding to question an unerring focus on Although we are only around half the focus of government intervention employment (of any kind) as the way through the review’s life, I am from simply getting people into priority was treated with disdain. hoping that the structure of our work to keeping them in work But things have changed. The rise final report will speak to a different (when, for example, workers’ of in-work poverty shows that way of thinking about change. care or health needs changing) having a job is not enough to ensure We will, of course, make specific and helping them progress. economic security. As countless recommendations for concrete media exposés attest, the prevalence immediate reform of the kind The case becomes of ‘wage slavery’ – workers denied people expect from a government overwhelming for adding voice or control – sits uneasily with review. These will inter alia cover quality to quantity of work our modern expectations of respect, employment status, employee as a core policy goal recognition and autonomy. Add engagement and the enforcement in the evidence that bad work is of rights. We will try to bring But there will also be a third vital deleterious to other key goals such greater fairness and clarity to a aspect to the review, an example as improving public health and system which can seem arbitrary, of a more opportunistic, tactical productivity, then top it off with

6 | Centre Write The new economy

>> concerns about the impact on jobs may be treated with equal disdain set up to respond to a political of automation, and the case becomes by those on the left who assume challenge and then largely forgotten overwhelming for adding quality to it to be impossible in a capitalist as the world moves on. One good quantity of work as a core policy goal. economy and those on the right who aspect of the recent bruising National For the review to have momentum will see it as dangerous license to Insurance contributions (NICs) that case needs to turn into a settled interfere with the natural workings row is that the employment Review consensus. Which is why I will be of the market. But I am hoping has high profile. The wise thing using my RSA annual lecture in just about everyone between will now would probably be to dampen May to launch a national aspiration; see good work for all as a policy expectations. Instead I’m planning namely, ‘all work should be fair and goal built on strong economic, to raise them. I’d love your help. • decent with scope for development social and ethical grounds. Article written before purdah. and fulfilment’. Such an aspiration Government reviews are too often

Skills for the future Alan Mak MP says we need a new skills review at the start of each parliament to help our economy tackle the challenge of automation

alan mak mp is the Chair characterised by increasingly the challenge of automation. The of the Fourth Industrial capable artificial intelligence (AI) Bank of England has estimated Revolution APPG and sophisticated robotics, jobs in a that up to 15 million British jobs vast array of service sectors are also may be at risk of automation, Around 250 years ago, Britain at risk, including retail, journalism, suggesting profound structural launched the world’s first Industrial accountancy, and even law. changes to our labour market will Revolution, powered by steam and Bart Selman, Professor of Computer accompany this new industrial age. innovations like the spinning jenny. Science at Cornell University, This dramatically improved the rightly says: “AI is moving rapidly We mustn’t be Luddite efficiency of the textiles sector, and from academic research into the and downbeat started the process of mechanisation real world…Computers are starting and automation that soon attracted to ‘hear’ and ‘see’ as humans do… These potential job losses will opposition from the Luddites, Systems can start to move and be in roles where any pattern of a group of English weavers and operate among us autonomously.” work can be replicated by a clever textile workers who destroyed But we mustn’t be Luddite and algorithm with a ready supply machinery in protest at the creeping downbeat. The emerging technologies of data. Paradoxically, “the more obsolescence of their skillset. driving this Fourth Industrial certainty your job entails the more Historically, the impact of Revolution can be harnessed to likely it is to be automated out,” automation was most keenly felt catalyse economic growth and says Professor Mary Cummings, in ‘blue collar’ industries, such as generate long-term prosperity. In Director of Duke University’s manufacturing and mining, that Britain, we must be the first to Humans and Autonomy Lab. involved repetitive tasks. As we enter seize this opportunity. That means From the printing press to the a new, ‘Fourth Industrial Revolution’, taking a pro-active approach to personal computer, the arc of history

Spring 2017 | 7 The new economy

>> has seen technology substituting human labour across our economy, as increasingly sophisticated machines displace workers at a fraction of the cost. That technological progress also led to rising economy-wide productivity gains, as new jobs are created in new industries. The answer to what John Maynard Keynes called “technological unemployment” has always been the same: embrace the efficiencies brought by innovation, and learn new skills to fill the jobs created by economic growth. So, programming, controlling and marketing robots will be new jobs created to replace or outstanding schools since 2010. valuable data to identify skills gaps roles previously done by people. However, to equip Britain to lead the and help educational institutions plan The supply of workers with science, Fourth Industrial Revolution, we need to meet the needs of employers. technology, engineering and maths to fully understand its implications This new FSR should include (STEM) skills will, therefore, be for our labour force and skills base. both regional analysis - to identify critical to Britain’s ability to harness Our approach must be strategic and skills needs and shortages across the Fourth Industrial Revolution. long-term: a detailed review of the Britain so policy is tailored to meet The Government clearly recognises nation’s skills needs to be conducted local needs - and an international this challenge, and the recent at the start of each Parliament. perspective - examining our industrial strategy Green Paper competitors’ strategies, so we can acknowledges the UK’s shortage This Fourth Industrial apply best practice to the UK. of skills in technical fields. Revolution can be harnessed to In the long term, a wave of As we leave the EU, develop a new catalyse economic growth and new jobs will be created by industrial strategy, and adopt an generate long-term prosperity businesses harnessing the power outward-looking global trade policy, of emerging technologies to we must also continue to reform Just as the Strategic Defence and expand and provide new products our education system to ensure our Security Review (SDSR) examines and services, from British-designed workforce has the right skills to the country’s defence requirements, 3D printers to UK-manufactured succeed. The Government has already and the Comprehensive Spending driverless cars. However, mastering taken important steps in this direction, Review (CSR) sets out our spending the Fourth Industrial Revolution with record levels of apprenticeships, priorities, a new national Future Skills must begin with closing the skills new University Technical Colleges Review (FSR) will help us future- gap, so Britain’s workers are reflecting a strong commitment to proof our economy. The FSR would equipped to take up those technical education, and a renewed look above the horizon and examine new jobs. A first step is fully focus on lifelong learning. We build our long-term skills needs, identifying understanding the challenge of on a position of strength, with the sectors and skillsets vulnerable to automation to our labour market, world-class universities, a strong automation, and the opportunities for and responding decisively and base of scientific research, and an new technology to drive economic strategically through a Skills Review additional 1.8 million children in good growth. This Review would give us that gets Britain to the future first. •

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Skype session with... Martin Ford martin ford is an American futurist Laura Round speaks to Martin Ford about the impact and author of Rise automation will have on employment of the Robots

You were one of the first to argue that the rise of robots and artificial intelligence would make large factions of the hu- LR man workforce irrelevant, including high skilled, well-paid jobs. Why?

Artificial Intelligence (AI) brings more baggage to jobs at certain levels. Routine jobs done in the past can now be more effectively performed through automation. This is true for a broad range of jobs including blue-collar jobs in factories and warehouses and also lots of college-based work. These roles are all now highly susceptible to automation. Previous MF jobs which may have had two people working together have now been swallowed up by automation. It is having a broad impact on the jobs market.

Some argue that it is likely that we are going to see more jobs emerge that rely on human interaction skills and that we LR shouldn’t be too worried. What is your response to that?

I think the question is whether workers can make the transition, and some people clearly will. However, I do think that it is going to be a different transition to what we have seen in the past. We have had technological disruptions before. A classic example is agriculture. Most people that work in agriculture have had agricultural machinery come in. When it was discovered that machines were more effective than humans it did not just impact one sector, but many sectors making it harder for the economy to create new jobs for all these people who had been replaced by machinery. Now we MF have purpose-built technology which will eventually replace most types of work. It’s not just about a farm or a field or things that have been done in the past but is going to be about transitioning to something that is a novelty. People will make that transition but I doubt that everyone will. I question whether there will be enough jobs.

LR So what are the challenges posed to the current political and economic structures?

The main challenge will be disruption. Wages have been stagnant for a while and it was as much about technology as it was about trade and immigration. I believe Brexit and the election of Trump reflected this. There is going to be disruption MF to workers and the way that our economy is structured and the cutting-off of a lot of jobs in sectors like energy and steel.

I read that you advocate a basic income guarantee. You are also a cheerleader for capitalism. I am curious how you see LR the two going hand in hand.

Actually a guaranteed income has been an idea advocated by people who are capitalists, including libertarians. It is not a socialist idea. For example, Friedrich Carter who was an icon for conservatives and libertarians was not an opponent of MF a guaranteed income. The idea is to make sure people have a minimum amount of money and then you let them go into the market and spend it. It is actually preserving capitalism.

Politically what needs to be done to combat the challenges with automation and what should governments across the LR world be doing?

Well, I think the first step is knowledge and awareness and I believe that is starting to happen. I have done a lot of interviews where I have talked to bureaucrats in some countries in Austria, Netherlands, and even in New York, where high level officials and administrations are aware of it. In the short-term, there needs to be a safety net as more and more people are going to be affected by this and resources for training and education need to be maximised, so that people can re-train and adapt. In the longer run, I think it’s inevitable that we need to think seriously about a solution such as MF a basic income. There are experiments going in different types of the world. I think that some time in the future when it becomes critical we can be confident that it will work. People still need an incentive to work and not stay at home and play video games.

Spring 2017 | 9 The new economy

Starting up Britain Bold action is required to ensure the digital technology sector continues to grow, argues Romily Dennys

romilly dennys is national share. Global competition is The Government has set out its Executive Director of fast rising, but London is still second intention to create a “digital Coadec, the Coalition only to the US for global private economy that works for everyone”, for a Digital Economy equity and venture attractiveness but it’s clear that this will require and this should be applauded. cross-departmental reform if we The UK digital technology sector But at the domestic level, it’s are to be a ‘Global Britain’ and is emerging as a global force and a alarming that Westminster City not just a Global London. major element of the UK economy. Council alone performs better The first reform should be to A record £6.7 billion was invested in than 60% of local authorities move to a system where all 16-19 UK tech firms in 2016, more than any combined, receiving as many tech year olds are expected to study other European country. In contrast, investments in 2016 as the 207 mathematics, usually to a level above the automotive sector received £1.7 worst performing local authorities GCSE, as is the norm in many other billion investment. This record boom combined. At the same time, countries, with basic levels of literacy means the sector already accounts for investments in London dropped and numeracy (GCSE level) a 16% of domestic output compared 16% in 2016, with no corresponding requirement for all further and higher with 10% for manufacturing increase elsewhere in the UK. education. England is in the bottom and 6% for construction. At its This investment picture cannot division of the international league simplest, tech is our future. be seen in isolation from the tables when it comes to the numbers The Government’s new digital chronic low pipeline of science, of young people studying maths. strategy, as part of their new technology, engineering and maths modern industrial strategy, is a (STEM) skills. The tech sector relies It’s clear that this will require promising start in supporting the heavily on a foreign workforce cross-departmental reform if digital technology sector. But because we do not have enough we are to be a ‘Global Britain’ bold action is required across all high-skilled people in this country. and not just a Global London Government departments to ensure The industries the Government one of the UK’s fastest-growing has identified as potentially high- This should be supported sectors can enter a golden age. growth are also reliant on skills in by a large-scale expansion in The past five years have seen short supply: artificial intelligence apprenticeships in software a plethora of Government (AI), data science and robotics development. Such a change tinkering. But after speaking to are good examples. It’s estimated will dramatically boost the talent hundreds of tech start-up founders that Britain will need 2.8 million pipeline in the UK. This will across the country, it’s clear that digitally skilled workers by 2020 to not happen overnight, however. significant barriers still exist, satisfy the UK’s digital potential. Access to talent is the top concern and that the opportunities of Yet England still performs poorly in for company founders in London’s tech scene are not felt international comparisons for both the country and we must remain in other parts of the country. basic numeracy and STEM skills, open to high-skilled talent after It’s no surprise that London with a heavy concentration of the we leave the EU. The best way dominates the equity landscape for worst performing local authorities in to do this is for the Home Office tech investments with 52% of the the North West and the Midlands. to create a new minimum

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>> six-month visa for high-skilled restrictions of current funding people move to London to access tech talent, to allow those who models and commit to slashing private capital, taking their ideas studied at particular top institutions, red tape. It cannot be right that an and talent with them. Or worse, or passed a standardised high-level official in the EU can dictate how they give up completely. exam in specific programming UK taxpayers’ money is spent on The Government can also use the languages, to enter the UK and seek talented young founders in Liverpool pooled Local Government Pension work. Coadec’s own data shows or Brighton. This is what currently Scheme (six wealth funds, each that of those who hired outside happens with the European containing at least £25 billion of the EU, 75% were already in Regional Development Fund of assets) to help channel more the UK – often as students or (ERDP) – a £2.9 billion fund finance into high-growth tech working for another company. directed through Local Enterprise firms through smaller ‘funds of Partnerships (LEPs). For many funds.’ The percentage of start-ups The tech sector relies heavily founders, the ERDF has failed reaching the growth stage has on a foreign workforce because due to the excessive State Aid declined year on year since 2011 we do not have enough high- rules, including the rule that and we are seeing our brightest start- skilled people in this country funding can only be offered as ups snapped up by US acquirers. a ‘funding of last resort’ option. None of these actions are small. The Government must also see Yet until we take measures to But this is the scale of change the decision to leave the EU as attract more private investment to required to make a post-Brexit an opportunity to deregulate the the regions, government funding Britain a world leader in this cumbersome and bureaucratic is often the only option. Either industry of tomorrow. •

Spring 2017 | 11 The new economy

A click closer Kulveer Ranger explores how digital change is developing closer relationships between individuals and services

kulveer ranger is Vice mesh into more traditional in technology as they make these President of Strategy infrastructures and services. investment decisions in energy, and Communications Our railways are managed by transport and other key sectors – at Atos UK&I moving block signal technology, our and yes, even when it comes to the roads have become ‘smart’ and the largest of public sector beasts: our Almost every day, we hear a new metering of energy supplies is not National Health Service. There is technological soundbite – connected only digitally monitored but has huge opportunity for re-modelling Britain, smarter cities, the internet enabled us to reverse the process the relationships and responsibilities of things, cybercrimes, hacktivism, and feed back into the grid. Such between patients, doctors and internet 4.0. The list goes on. There technologies have been around for hospitals. With digital at the heart, is an array of labels for things which a while, yet there is a sense that healthcare can be transformed into are in many cases ephemeral. they are not delivering their full a connected, seamless continuum of Meanwhile, digital change is potential. I believe this is because care with prevention and proactive happening before our eyes and in our they have been ‘bolted on’ to health and wellbeing built in – all hands. We have gone from thinking existing services and infrastructure. informed by data and systems that can about our phone as a way of talking We now have the opportunity to change how services are delivered. to each other to the device through create a national infrastructure that which we run our lives. We’re still has a digital DNA. So when we are We now have the trying to grapple with this change. regenerating city sectors, building opportunity to create a In the ‘digital age’, what do we new transport links or developing national infrastructure need to prepare for? I believe we new power stations, we can utilise that has a digital DNA need to understand and plan for and even build in digital capabilities the digitalisation of our national such as supercomputing, cloud I am pleased to say that we know infrastructure, examine how we as and advanced analytics. And there this process of change has begun as individuals can drive this change, and will be many other examples. By healthcare organisations across the ensure that the necessary political thinking digital from conception, we UK look to embark on their own knowledge and capital is in place to can embed digital enablers in a way journey of digital transformation. support and switch on UK citizens to that is truly transformational. This So what does all this mean for the opportunities of the digital age. kind of future-proofing is starting citizens as we witness these changes It has become a no-brainer that to happen. Crossrail, for example, happening around us? As individuals, any modern economy and nation- is ‘Digital first’ by design, namely we are already at the forefront of state must take responsibility for its a smart metro from its birth rather the change. We have been through own technological infrastructure, than one that has been retrofitted. our own digital evolution. We live just as we did when we created There is obviously already in the centre of our personal digital the National Grid. But this is not acknowledgement of the importance ecosystems. Our devices, enabled about just creating a patchwork- of embedding digital technologies by our personal connectivity, mean quilt of connectivity such as wi-fi, into services. However, it is important we engage with social media, other 5G, broadband and so on. It is that our leaders and policymakers networks and a plethora of channels about how these digital enablers are cognisant of what is happening to connect, transact and access people

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>> and data in wonderful new ways. society that is inclusive for all citizens. be based purely on technology However, this phase of digital working, but on people feeling evolution is almost in the past. The We will have created the involved, supported and confident question now is how our ‘citizen seamless ability for citizens that this is the right way to go. digital ecosystems’ will map into and services to work Politically – from local councillors, the next generation of local and together and interact in to city administrations and national ‘smart’ digital infrastructure real time, day to day national government – we need to herald the dawning of this next champions for this digital age. phase of the digital age. And as If recent political outcomes have We need political leadership those ecosystems and infrastructures told us anything, it is that we cannot that is not only alert to the become integrated, we will have create an environment in which opportunities but can provide the created the seamless ability for one segment of society advances vision, policies, governance and citizens and services to work together and prospers while others feel frameworks to make sure they are and interact in real time, day to day. over-looked, ambivalent or even grasped. We can already see this This is no utopian view. There are disenfranchised. Modern politics has emerging through the recently real challenges along the journey to created marginalisation. We all need launched Government Transformation achieving these kinds of symbiotic to be careful that digital progression Strategy from the Cabinet Office, relationships between individuals and doesn’t leave equally marginalised the work being done to develop the public or private services. There will groups. Our politicians must play new national industrial strategy, be new markets, new competition, their part by both understanding the particularly the industrial digitisation new dynamics, and yes, need for new opportunities of the digital age and Review that is embedded within it, regulation. But these changes, and ensuring that through education, jobs, and the digital strategy. All of these even disruptions, will drive increased transformation of public services and point towards the huge potential innovation. As a nation, we should be a growing economy, everyone can feel for our country. A country which prepared to embrace these challenges the benefits of those opportunities. has digital at its core and delivers while ensuring we create a digital Success in the digital age will not digital opportunity for all. •

Spring 2017 | 13 technology and ethics

Snooper’s Charter or democratic surveillance? The Investigatory Powers Act needs to be watched closely. By Dr Paul Bernal

dr paul bernal is a Lecturer in Information Technology at the University of East Anglia School of Law

Depending on who you listen to, the Investigatory Powers Act (IPA) 2016 is a welcome modernisation of our surveillance law, or the most intrusive piece of legislation ever passed in a democracy. Is it a model for surveillance law in a democratic society, or a ‘snooper’s charter’? Which is right? The real problem, particularly for those of a liberal (with a small ‘l’) bent, is that both may be. The IPA replaces an old regime characterised by complexity and confusion, built up in a somewhat about. It is ambitious in its reach as a disproportionate intrusion piecemeal fashion and subject (potentially covering the whole into fundamental rights. to significant challenge. When world), and has been bold in its The then Prime Minister, David Edward Snowden revealed at least conception – though what will really Cameron, and his Home Secretary some of the real extent of the UK matter is how it works out in reality. Theresa May put forward a stop- authorities’ surveillance in 2013, it The IPA is not the first attempt gap measure, the Data Retention became clear that the old laws had that has been made to ‘modernise’ and Investigatory Powers Act, been ‘stretched’ to say the least, our surveillance laws. In 2012, the rushing it through Parliament in a to be used in ways that many said then Home Secretary Theresa May matter of a couple of days. That act, they had never been intended. put forward the Communications too, was savaged by the European The areas specifically covered Data Bill – the first law to be Court just before last Christmas by the IPA are interception of labelled the ‘snooper’s charter’. But – and the potential remains for communications, acquisition of a combination of very bad public the IPA to suffer a similar fate. ‘communications data’ (also referred relations and the resistance of the The reasons for this are fairly to as ‘traffic data’ and ‘meta-data’ at Liberal Democrats put paid to that. straightforward. The IPA’s times, though definitions are a bit After Snowden’s revelations, predecessors gave the potential for confused), ‘equipment interference’ surveillance was given an even oppression – without, it seems, (more commonly known as hacking), worse name. The European Court sufficient limitations or protections. and ‘bulk personal datasets’ – a new of Justice cast down the centre- Whether the IPA itself provides those concept, which even the proponents piece of European surveillance protections is a matter of considerable of the act seem a little unclear law, the Data Retention Directive, debate. If the current Home Secretary,

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>> Amber Rudd, uses warrants and whether the systems in place powers? Will the much-vaunted carefully and selectively it could meet human rights requirements ‘judicial double lock’ - whereby be the kind of appropriately – either of the European Court of the judicial commissioners have to modernised surveillance system its Justice, until Brexit, or the European approve warrants for interceptions of advocates have suggested - but the Court of Human Rights – is a communications, for example - amount law could also allow her to monitor matter of considerable doubt. to anything more than a rubber stamp? everyone’s web browsing without Admittedly, the IPA includes an This is where it is critical that those any judicial oversight (using ‘internet unprecedented (for the UK) level of a liberal perspective need to pay connection records’), hack millions of oversight and set of safeguards close attention. How this kind of of computers across the country against misuse of these powers. These law works in practice is the key. A (using ‘bulk equipment interference include making misuse of these powers government consultation on the warrants’) and suck up any database criminal offences, a set of different codes of practice that accompany of personal information (using oversight bodies, and for the first time the bill is being undertaken. The ‘bulk personal datasets’). These are a role for judges in some parts of the process through which the judicial immensely powerful tools – with warranting system. The big test will commissioners are to be appointed significant potential to be used for be whether these safeguards amount was initiated in February 2017 – it oppression rather than protection, to anything more than fig leaves. Will needs to be watched closely. What for control rather than to watch there be many - or any - convictions is decided over the next few months for danger. Which way they will, in of police officers or intelligence may decide which direction this law practice, be used, has yet to be seen, agents for misusing investigatory goes: oppression or protection. •

A changing childhood Sue Palmer writes about the effect technology has on children and the dangers of becoming hooked on screen-based entertainment

sue palmer is the author shortcuts gathered speed, because people, affecting younger age groups of ‘Toxic Childhood’ what is great for grown-ups is not every year. While the reasons behind necessarily good for children, whose these developments are complex, the bodies and brains are still developing. influence of technology on children's Born in the same year and the same Over recent decades, we have seen lifestyles is clearly involved. There street as the first modern computer - a steady deterioration in children’s are no short-cuts to healthy physical 1948, Oxford Road, Manchester - physical and mental health. During and psychological development and I have personally enjoyed the digital 2016, researchers reported that UK no quick fixes if things go wrong. revolution. All those shortcuts to kids are among the least active, least During the first two years of one’s information, communication and healthy and most stressed in the life, for instance, children have to entertainment are great. However, western world. Obesity is back on develop bodily coordination and having spent the last twenty years the rise, as are other health conditions control, a rough understanding of researching child development in the linked to lack of physical activity. how the world works and basic social modern world, I am glad my daughter There's also a spiraling mental health skills. For this they need to move was born before 1990 when these crisis among children and young freely, exploring their environment

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>> with all their senses. They also need the constant assistance of adult carers who, as well as keeping them alive, are an essential source of emotional security and a model for social behaviour, including language. Unsurprisingly, the proliferation of visual media, including baby TV channels, and the increasing use of smartphones and tablets as infant pacifiers have coincided with a steady increase in developmental disorders. The earlier children become hooked but UK children now spend on adult attitudes to early childhood, on screen-based entertainment, average around five hours a day on so that parents are more aware of the more likely it is to become 'recreational screen-based activity', their offspring's' developmental their default activity, so they are leaving little time for running, needs. Contrast this with early less inclined to engage in real- jumping, climbing, making dens, years policy in the UK – cobbled life interactions and activities as splashing about in streams or together on a shoestring as the digital time goes on. But, once they are puddles, inventing games, exploring, revolution raged around us – and walking, talking and relatively in experimenting and generally finding focused on getting parents back to control of their behaviour, lifelong out about the world by being in work and children ready for school. health and well-being depends it. Yet these are the experiences It's not surprising if UK parents on plenty of opportunities to be through which children throughout assume that – in a technological age outdoors, active and social. history have practised real-life – there’s no danger in substituting Outdoor play, usually with other problem-solving, risk-taking, technological alternatives. kids, and with minimal interference dealing with set-backs, collaboration I believe that we need the from adults, has been a consistent with peers – including emotional development of a coherent, well- feature of childhood in every time strategies for coping with fall-outs funded approach to care and and culture until our own. The wide – and developed the common-sense education from birth to the age of variety of physical activity it involves understanding that comes from seven, with the emphasis on social is obviously linked to long-term embodied engagement with the real and emotional development and physical health, but psychologists world, in real time and real space. outdoor play and national guidelines also stress its contribution to for on-screen based technology for children’s emotional well-being and Some screen-play is obviously children under the age of twelve. social development. Self-directed a useful addition to a twenty- Childhood isn't merely a cultural play is where children learn to first century child’s repertoire, construct; it's a biological stage take responsibility for their own but UK children now spend in human development. Digital behaviour and discover their own on average around five technology may have transformed strengths, thus developing powers hours a day on ‘recreational our cultural landscape but it hasn't of self-regulation and feelings of screen-based activity’ changed our biological heritage. self-efficacy, essential components If we want the next generation to of long-term emotional resilience. As well as ensuring plenty of be an asset to the economy rather Some screen-play is obviously time for learning through play than a drain on the health service, a useful addition to a twenty- during children's formative years, we must help parents ‘keep it real’ first century child's repertoire, this kindergarten tradition affects during their children's early years. •

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A health-care revolution? Dr Tania Mathias MP argues that automation can lead to an increase in person-to-person care in the NHS

dr tania mathias mp is a linking to diagnostic programmes. the health professions must give member of the Commons The future for health practitioners higher value to the person-to-person Science and Technology will include robots doing manual and creative parts of every job. Select Committee work such as operations, and even more consultations by Skype. If we do not prepare for The ‘Fourth Industrial Revolution’ The obvious advantage of these rapid changes we has been described as being of far automation and artificial intelligence will let the machines greater importance to our society (AI) is that the person-to-person dominate our workplace today than Brexit or Donald part of health care should increase. Trump. The risks and opportunities Today nurses complain about work Economically, the challenge will of this revolution can already be that takes them away from the be how to reward the parts of our seen in the field of health care. patient’s bed. With robots doing work that have not been financially The Fourth Revolution has been the blood pressure monitoring and well rewarded in the past. In this described as a blurring of the real drug dispensing, the nurses’ station century, it may well prove to be that world with the technological world might even disappear and staff the robot doing the neurosurgery on or the fusion of physical, digital could have more ‘high touch’ time a microscopic lesion in the middle and biological fields. In health care with patients. Of course the danger of the brain, that takes half an hour this means that not only do we of robotics and AI is that if we do of robot time, will be far cheaper to have machines that can measure not prepare for these rapid changes hire than the person sitting by the heart function and analyse it at the we will let the machines dominate bedside listening to the patients’ fears time of the measurement but also our workplace – a Frankenstein about their operation for the same computer programmes which can effect - and we will not protect amount of time. The NHS has never replace clinicians for some disease the ‘high touch’ part of the jobs. rewarded the health professions diagnoses. These programmes can – neither the health auxiliary, nor give diagnostic help to patients and The future for health the hospital porter, nor the doctor help them become experts in their practitioners will include – adequately for their time spent on own right. Information gathering robots doing manual work patient engagement and empathy. and its interpretation is being done such as operations, and even In fact, the focus of all workplaces at a faster rate than ever before more consultations by Skype – just as in the health care workplace and is accessible for the health – must move towards rewarding professional and the patient. All revolutions are exciting and person-to-person work and also At the start of the NHS, in 1948, this one is happening at a faster towards re-skilling the workforce the family doctor had the doctor’s pace than the previous revolutions to match needs such as engineering bag with a prescription pad, some – McKinsey’s Global Institute’s and software development. Industrial instruments such as a thermometer, estimate is that the pace is ten revolutions are born from creativity blood pressure cuff and stethoscope. times greater than that of the First in ideas. Who knows: with artificial Today the general practitioner Industrial Revolution and three intelligence and robotics we may will have automated machines thousand times the impact. In the see non-human creativity giving for these tests and their computer excitement of this roller coaster ride, rise to the Fifth Revolution. •

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Don’t look up! Lord Hodgson urges the ethical implications of drone warfare to be considered

lord hodgson is a enables one to ‘loiter’ over the target itself – not its precision, nor its Conservative Peer to get proper reassurance as to its remoteness – but to the conditions and a member of the appropriateness. By contrast it is not and constraints applied to its Secondary Legislation easy to ‘loiter’ in a Tornado both deployment to carry out what’s Scrutiny Committee because it is travelling at hundreds of known as ‘targeted killings’ in areas miles an hour and also because every where the UK may not be at war. The concept of waging war remotely pilot will have in the back of his mind There is at least one instance of is not a new one. Early examples the possibility of an anti-aircraft a UK targeted killing carried out such as the VI and V2 rockets in missile – being shot down and landing by drone strike - that which killed the Second World War with their in Isis held territory is unlikely to lead British national Reyaad Khan in primitive guidance systems gave way to a happy outcome for the pilot. Syria in August 2015. Khan, who was to increasingly sophisticated nuclear fighting with Isis, was killed by an weapons which formed, and still It may be tempting to try and RAF Reaper drone in what the then- form, Britain’s nuclear deterrent. rewrite the rulebook. But the Prime Minister, David Cameron, But recent years have seen the rule of law exists to prevent called a “new departure … the first increasing development and use miscarriages of justice time in modern times that a British of drones – – hence the acronym asset has been used to conduct a used by our armed forces ‘RPAS’, Second, operating these drones strike in a country where we’re not standing for Remotely Piloted carries its own personal stresses. involved in a war.” The Attorney Aircraft Systems. Drone warfare An individual pilot will move in a General has since made it clear, in is at an early stage but it is clear all few short minutes from the familiar a speech in January of this year, three armed services will wish to take comfort of a married quarter to the that the UK considers these strikes advantage of this new technology. intensity of making life or death a legitimate form of self-defence This exposes that the legal decisions – not just about causing the provided there is an imminent threat. framework that covers military death of an individual but because With the UK locked into a conflict operations was not designed with failure to take one life may put the with Isis, there may well be more remote operations in mind. The lives of other members of coalition strikes of this kind in future. And balance to be struck is between, forces at risk. And at the end of a there are some serious legal and on the one hand, safeguarding our shift to move equally quickly from ethical problems involved. For armed forces and maintaining their this intensity back to domestic life. example, how do we define an efficiency, while on the other ensuring There is no time for ‘decompression’. ‘imminent threat’? In his recent proper respect for the rule of law. But away from the practical speech, the current Attorney General Today British ‘Reaper’ drones are implications, there are wider told us: “we will not always know flying over Iraq and Syria, as part public policy implications of the where and when an attack will take of the struggle to contain militants increasing use of drones. The ethical place, or the precise nature of the fighting with Islamic State. implications of drone warfare attack…our enemies will not always Two particular points about the 24/7 depend on how drones are used. have fixed plans”. This definition is nature of this modern warfare need In fact, the biggest ethical question drawn broadly so it could cover all highlighting. First, drone technology relates not to the technology manner of vague threats – if you

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>> don’t need to have a specific plan a proud history of developing the being developed and implemented. for a specific attack, there are plenty rule of law as an essential pillar Otherwise we may find ourselves of people out there that wish the of our liberal, democratic society. on a slippery slope to a society UK harm, and who might be judged This is an important element of where the rules governing decisions capable of inflicting damage. But our national ‘soft power’ and our about life and death are subject to how and where do we draw the line? reputation around the world. dangerous levels of interpretation. It may be tempting to try and As more countries get their hands rewrite the rulebook, claiming As more countries get on drone technology, Britain must that the threats that we face as a their hands on drone set a precedent for responsible, nation mean that the frontlines have technology, Britain must set transparent, ethical use. Then we irretrievably shifted, and that the a precedent for responsible, shall be in a better position to gloves must come off in order to transparent, ethical use encourage others to do the same. strike our enemies decisively. But Whether drones end up providing the rule of law exists to prevent So we need to make sure that as a cleaner form of war, or whether miscarriages of justice, abuses of we use new forms of warfare an they end up helping undermine the power, and mob rule. The UK has appropriate legal framework is rule of law, is yet to be seen. •

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The Russian Bear? Dr Andrew Foxall and Emily Taylor assess Putin’s power

dr andrew foxall is Director Created by Russian media, it spread primarily on social of the Russia Studies Centre at networks thanks to a concerted Russian online effort. It The Henry Jackson Society was liked, shared, and favourited by millions of people. Over the past decade or so, Russia has invested heavily emily taylor is an Associate Fellow in the production of disinformation. It has ploughed at Chatham House and Editor of significant funding into Russia Today, its English- the Journal of Cyber Policy language propaganda television channel, and Sputnik, its radio offshoot. It uses social media as well as a huge Beware of Putin, argues Dr Andrew Foxall range of online vehicles – ‘news’, websites, forums, and A quarter of a century ago, the idea that disinformation information portals – with significant impact. It maintains might pose a threat to the stability of the West seemed ‘troll factories’, in which hundreds of bloggers are paid fanciful. Western ethics and values, some dating from to flood the internet with Kremlin-friendly messages. the Enlightenment, looked as triumphant as free In the early days of this year, a little-known outlet markets; the Cold War had ended, in part, because linked to the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic the Soviet Union lied while the West told the truth. published a story claiming that the US was dispatching But truth is not what it once was; post-modernism 3,600 tanks to Eastern Europe as part of NATO’s “war and relativism have seen to that. The proliferation of preparation against Russia”. The story was a lie. The US information over the past decade has made it harder for had, in fact, announced that it would deploy 87 tanks people to judge the accuracy of what they see and read. to the region. But the facts were irrelevant. The story And the development of new technologies has made caught the imagination online and within days had been it easier than ever before to spread disinformation. republished, tweeted and retweeted by dozens of outlets One person who understands this better than most is in the West and especially the Russian-speaking world. the Russian President, Vladimir Putin. Russia, long ago, “There is no such thing as objective reporting”, claim perfected the art of deception. It is now marrying this the heads of Putin’s propaganda networks Dmitry Kiselev knowledge with new technology and directing it at target and Margarita Simonyan, when asked to explain the populations in order to influence and shape the political editorial principles that allow for conspiracy theories to landscape in the West. While many in the West recognise be presented as being equally valid to evidence-based that Russia is aggressively pursuing a revisionist foreign research. A lie, in the Kremlin’s eyes, can be as worthy as policy, few realise that the spread of disinformation a fact. The disinformation Moscow creates and circulates is an integral and indispensable part of its strategy. has little in common with Cold War propaganda. In early 2016, Russia’s television station Channel One reported that a 13-year-old girl, ‘Lisa’, from a Russian- A lie, in the Kremlin’s eyes, can immigrant family in Germany had been abducted on her be as worthy as a fact way to school and gang-raped by asylum-seekers. The story broke shortly after the large-scale sex attacks on Its news channels pump out scare stories about climate New Year’s Eve in Cologne and elsewhere, fuelling anti- change and immigration while portraying the West as racist migrant protests across Germany. Lisa’s ‘disappearance’ and xenophobic. Its websites promote conspiracy theories, was so prominent that even Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign while its trolls deride Western investigative journalism. minister, spoke publicly about it. The story was a lie. The aim is not to present the idea that Russia is as good

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>> as the West, but instead that the West is as bad as Russia. NATO powers. How do we separate fact from fiction? Some countries are waking up to this. In Ukraine, When something bad happens, it’s not always because organisations such as ‘StopFake’ are exposing and of Russia. Early reportage of the TalkTalk hacks in 2015 ridiculing Russian lies. In the Baltic states, armies suggested that it was the work of Russians, Islamic of cyber-warriors are taking on pro-Russian trolls fundamentalists, and even Islamic fundamentalists based online. There have been broader attempts to tackle in Russia. It turned out to be a 17 year old in Norwich. the problem, too. The European External Action Attribution is a known problem when it comes to Service, the European Union’s foreign-policy arm, cyberattacks. When a breach occurs, it can take months of compiles weekly disinformation bulletins, tracking forensic investigation before a conclusion can be reached the activities of the Kremlin’s myth-makers. about the source of an attack. Twitter’s commentariat pokes But dealing with Russia’s disinformation is a much fun at the current trend of evidence-free Russian-blaming. bigger issue. By the time a story has been ‘de-bunked’, Sloppy reporting or assuming that Russia is responsible it has likely been shared hundreds of times and for anything scary serves Russia’s cause - amplifying the thousands more lies have already been created. terrifying sense of its powers, beyond its actual capability. Although the term ‘cyberwar’ is bandied about, Its news channels pump out scare stories actual incidents are relatively rare. The Ukrainian about climate change and immigration while president has claimed that Russia is waging a cyberwar portraying the West as racist and xenophobic alongside its conflict against Ukraine. However, these are the exception, not the norm. More frequent are All that matters is that the story is clickable, allegations that Russia is involved in what used to be likable or sharable. Social media is creating echo called propaganda campaigns: involvement in spreading chambers of similar-minded people; whether these fake news, politically motivated hacking, and skewing people lie or tell the truth is largely irrelevant to elections on both sides of the Atlantic. How can we the algorithms underpinning the platforms. sift the truth from allegation and counter-allegation? Almost three years since General Philip Breedlove, The CIA has stated with “high confidence” that Russia NATO’s supreme commander, warned that Vladimir was responsible for hacks on the Democratic National Putin was “waging the most amazing information warfare Committee in 2016, claims that Russia denies. “Much blitzkrieg we have ever seen”, there is little understanding of the information supporting the CIA’s conclusions is of how Russia’s disinformation campaigns actually classified, for obvious reasons. This makes it impossible work. Which aspects of the disinformation are effective? to assess the quality of evidence”, explains Keir Giles, What are the key technologies in spreading them? Who Associate Fellow at Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia believes them? Why? It is time this changed, not least programme. However, Thomas Rid’s careful analysis because other countries, including China, are beginning provides a compelling case that the hackers were Russian to use some of the same techniques and technologies. state-actors. Giles’ Handbook of Russian Information Warfare explains that Russia has long engaged in campaigns Putin isn’t really the problem, says Emily Taylor of disinformation, disruption, and subversion outside the Russian cyberattacks and fake news will not be defeated formal theatre of war. Russia’s Defence Minister, Sergei through panic and paranoia. Multiple approaches are Shoigu recently confirmed that the Russian armed forces required: greater care about attribution, increased include “information troops”, a Russian Cyber Command. transparency and accountability for social media platforms, What are we to make of the furore surrounding fake news and an evolution in the funding of public service journalism. stories, and their alleged impact on the 2016 elections? Fake news, allegations of interference in democratic Apart from President Trump engaging caps-lock on processes. Every day brings new claims that the Russians Twitter to yell “FAKE NEWS” at every critic, is there are using information warfare to sow mischief, disruption anything behind the phenomenon? According to one and doubt into the political sphere inside and amongst report, fake news outperformed mainstream news in

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>> the month before the US Presidential elections. But that does not prove that fake news influenced the election result, according to an academic study from Stanford University. Propaganda, lying and rumour are not new. Writing in the first century BCE, Virgil called rumour “the swiftest of all evils...clinging to the false and the wrong, yet heralding truth”. If you’re in politics, you don’t need the internet to spread a lie - you can even use a bus. Something that is new, and has been poorly understood by regulators and lawmakers, is the creepy power of big data and big technology companies. Allegations are surfacing that one or more data analytics companies helped swing the Brexit vote and US Elections. Sir Tim Berners-Lee, in his open letter to the internet community, suggests that political campaigns are now building individual adverts, targeted directly at users. He cites one source claiming that in the US elections, “50,000 variations of an advert were being served every single day on Facebook.” Our Twitter feeds, search results and Facebook walls may seem like neutral spaces. They are not. The companies behind them heavily curate what we see, drawing on Business Insider what they know about our location, and our preferences. This pinpoint personalisation was foreseen more than 20 why so few managed to predict the outcome of elections years ago by Nicholas Negroponte: the Daily Me. Small in 2016. Silicon Valley’s information oligarchs are facing scale democratic experiments in 2005 indicate that “a high a painful transition from being platforms to publishers. degree of self-sorting leads to more confidence, extremism Zuckerberg’s manifesto recognises that with Facebook’s and increased contempt for those with contrary views.” immense power comes responsibility, but he’s looking in the wrong direction. It is up to others to help the Our Twitter feeds, search results platforms evolve and protect public service journalism. and Facebook walls may seem like It’s clear from the Kremlin’s own materials that neutral spaces. They are not information warfare is an important aspect of its strategy. But not everything bad online is Russia’s fault. Attribution This is a democracy problem, not just a technical for cyberattacks is challenging and if we’re not careful we problem. If society pushes the solution onto technologists, can unwittingly serve the information war by assuming we’ll get a technical solution and things will get worse. that Russia is more cyber-capable that it actually is. Mark Zuckerberg’s recent manifesto suggests that if only Sir Tim Berners-Lee has called for the Big Tech platforms Facebook can get the tech right, humans will behave in a to provide “more algorithmic transparency”. Whether rational, predictable and well-intentioned way (although they like it or not, those platforms are taking on an a fact-checker on news articles would be useful). increasing public service role, and the heavily personalised Zuckerberg misses the point that it’s the heavy curation environments tend to polarise views, diminish diversity which is the problem, and more curation is not going and tolerance. Independent, fact-checked journalism has to solve it. What is needed is a flatter view, something an important role in all democracies, and is struggling more general, more messy. Another feature of the for finance. New funding models urgently need to be ‘Daily Me’ phenomenon is that journalists and other explored, including levies from social media and online commentators are also exposed to the same, highly platforms. It is the algorithms, not Putin, that are personalised echo chamber - which may help to explain amplifying fake news around online echo-chambers. •

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Preparing Britain for the rest of the twenty-first century The Rt Hon Matt Hancock MP on how Britain can play to its historic strengths whilst looking to the future

the rt hon matt hancock in a way that is a joy to use. beating cultural assets. Take just mp is the Minister of State Who buys a clunky phone? Or one example. Productions by the for Digital and Culture puts up with a second rate service Royal Opera House, for example, anymore? Expectations are rising are now screened in real time and this presents an opportunity. from its Covent Garden home to A core task of any forward Why is the Range Rover so more than 500 cinemas across the thinking Government worth spectacularly successful? What UK - allowing audiences to enjoy its salt is constantly to ask: what underpins Apple’s success? What its shows on their doorstep. must we do to secure the prosperity drives success in music, fashion, or This is just the start. Our Digital of the nation over the generation home goods? All of these require Strategy set out how we will make ahead? The task is not to defend the combination of creative flair sure businesses have access to industries and economies in and technological perfection to the skills and infrastructure they their present form, frozen in be the successes they are. need to make the most out of the aspic, but to seek out the new And guess what? Britain is brilliant opportunities offered by digital. markets, new methods, and new at all of them. Jaguar Land Rover technologies that will provide the (JLR) is one of the fastest growing car We can help prepare Britain jobs and incomes our children companies in the world. The iPhone for the rest of the twenty- and grandchildren will rely on. was designed by an Englishman. first century, maintain our The basis of our future prosperity But we must not rest on our outward looking, global is always changing. From the wool laurels. With our exit from the approach, and play to of the fifteenth century, to the coal EU we must be a global Britain. our historic strengths and cotton of the nineteenth, it is JLR may be British born but it’s impossible to predict with certainty, owned by an Indian company Our Culture White Paper sets but we must prepare for what we can that turned it around. Jony Ive out how we’ll develop our nation’s see through the fog of the future. may have invented the iPhone, amazing creativity. Our Culture is but he went to America to do it. Digital project, launched earlier this Expectations are rising and So we must redouble our efforts month, is all about bringing the two this presents an opportunity to have global reach. And we must together and mining this rich seam. redouble our efforts at home. It’s an exciting area. So much is Through that fog it is increasingly already happening. We can help clear that our prosperity in the But we must not rest on prepare Britain for the rest of the twenty-first century will be built, or our laurels. With our exit twenty-first century, maintain our rather designed, at the intersection of from the EU we must outward looking, global approach, inspired creativity and technological be a global Britain and play to our historic strengths. brilliance. No longer is it about That’s one way, in Government, widgets or quantity of stuff. It’s The good news is, we can work we can keep looking forward in the about things - goods and services to hone this connection between service of the whole country. • - that people really want because our amazing tech businesses they solve a problem and do so and our extraordinary, world Article written before purdah.

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Anxious about automation? Matthew d’Ancona looks at the best evidence and writing on automation and urges politicians and policymakers to take note

matthew d’ancona is revolution, I have long believed that change – is already changing – in ways chair of Bright Blue the greatest threat to social stability that favour the imagination rather and a columnist for the is not immigration but automation. than manual and technocratic skills. Guardian and London Though the wave of populist All the same, no society, however Evening Standard nationalism and nativism sweeping enlightened, can employ its entire the world is deeply alarming, it is by workforce as writers, designers, If you have a taste for prophecy, no means destined to triumph. The actors, therapists, painters, poets try this prescient warning by opposing forces – globalisation, well- and sculptors. The liberation of Samuel Butler in his essay ‘Darwin established pluralism, commercial humanity from most forms of work among the machines’ (1863): interdependence, unprecedented presents opportunities, but also “There are few things of which the population mobility – are formidable a crisis of social trajectory. What present generation is more justly proud and undiminished. The fact that will become of us all when most than of the wonderful improvements they are now under political attack of what we do now can be done which are daily taking place in all (in different ways, in different at marginal cost by machines? sorts of mechanical appliances…Day countries) is no reason to assume In The rise of the robots, Martin by day, however, the machines are that they will be defeated. Ford describes a world in which gaining ground upon us; day by day In contrast, no clear answer has education will remain a force for we are becoming more subservient yet emerged to the challenge of decency but one incapable of keeping to them; more men are daily bound automation. What roles will be left up with the galloping pace of down to them as slaves to tend them, for the majority of human beings in automation. The state, he concludes, more men are daily devoting the a world of driverless cars, unstaffed will be compelled to pay all citizens a energies of their whole lives to the supermarkets, robotic baristas, basic income to compensate for this development of mechanical life. The computerised medical diagnosis, transformation of working culture. upshot is simply a question of time, legal software, accountancy apps, but that the time will come when the and artificial intelligence of a The liberation of humanity machines will hold the real supremacy sophistication that could only have from most forms of work over the world and its inhabitants is been dreamt of a few years ago? presents opportunities, but what no person of a truly philosophic In his classic guide to the twenty- also a crisis of social trajectory mind can for a moment question.” first century world, A Whole New More than 120 years before James Mind (2005), the business guru Daniel Glasgow city council has Cameron imagined a world dominated Pink predicted that automation announced a pilot scheme offering by Skynet and its killing machines in would release humankind from such a subsidy, and Finland has The Terminator, Butler had foreseen drudgery, heralding a new era in launched its own experiment, the awesome potential of technology which the right hemisphere of the paying 2,000 unemployed people to make mankind redundant. Today, brain – responsible for creativity, a monthly income of around £500 that fear has migrated from science- design and empathy – would assume (conditional upon them finding fiction movies to mainstream political exponentially greater significance. a job – which rather defeats its discourse – and with good reason. Pink’s thesis is correct, in as far as it relevance in the age of automation). As much as I revel in the digital goes. The nature of labour will indeed So far, these proposals are designed

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>> to simplify existing benefit of existing labour functions. Their on “higher-level processes”. systems and incentivise work. But argument – persuasive in its appeal Software may be able to diagnose what if there is no work to be done? to human nature – is that, in a disease and propose treatment. But Yuval Noah Harari offers a bleak great many settings, consumers patients, especially those in need of answer in his recent book, Homo will still want to interact with acute care, would still want to deal Deus, predicting the comprehensive people as well as machines. with doctors and nurses. Human replacement of professional as beings are genetically programmed well as semi-skilled labour by There are limits to to be social animals, acting tribally “highly intelligent algorithms”. In the degree of automation rather than in isolation. There are this dystopian vision, he foresees we would accept – limits limits to the degree of automation humanity splitting into “an that have less to do with we would accept – limits that algorithmic upper class owning most grumpy Luddism than have less to do with grumpy of our planet” and “a new massive our deepest, most primal Luddism than our deepest, most class: people devoid of any economic, instincts to collaborate primal instincts to collaborate and political or even artistic value”. and communicate communicate with one another. As an optimist, I prefer the with one another There is no glib answer to this analysis of Thomas H. Davenport extraordinary challenge, no ready and Julia Kirby in Only humans So, for example, financial advisers solution to be grabbed off the shelf. need apply, which champions an will spend more time engaging But the first and most important “augmentation agenda”. The authors in behavioural analysis of their step is for businesses, politicians urge employers and governments clients, working face-to-face, and policymakers to acknowledge to acknowledge the scale of the while algorithms look for the best the sheer scale and urgency of the challenge and to focus as much upon deals available. Marketers will be task that stands before them. To preparing humans to work with less preoccupied by routine data- do otherwise would be the most machines as upon the mechanization crunching and able to concentrate dangerous sort of delusion. •

Bringing broadband to all Nigel Huddleston MP on unleashing the economic potential of rural Britain

nigel huddleston mp Indeed, the isolation of rural and initiative. Their figures released in is a member of the semi-rural communities from our March this year indicate that 92.5% Culture, Media and increasingly high speed digital of people across the country now Sport Select Committee economy is something that must be have access to broadband speeds urgently addressed if we are serious of 24Mbps or higher (i.e. superfast The Culture, Media and Sport Select about creating a more equitable and broadband). Even if this were true, Committee, of which I am a member, less London-centric economy. we would have to consider how this commented last July that “the UK is BT and its local access network situation affects the final 7.5%. a laggard by international standards subsidiary Openreach are at the But current advertising regulations in providing fibre connectivity. This centre of nationwide rollouts of fibre allow BT to claim that consumers could result in a widening, not a broadband, having won all of the receiving their broadband connections narrowing, of the digital divide”. contracts for phase one of the national from a particular cabinet all receive

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>> superfast connections if they can show that just 10% actually do so. Cabinets across the country are fitted with fibre technology, but households are still using copper connections that slow their internet down to a snail’s pace and we must accept that this 92.5% figure grossly misrepresents the scale of this problem in the UK. In a parliamentary debate, the Minister for Culture and Communications, Matthew Hancock, made the point that if we assume that all fibre cabinets provide for which I sat on the Public Bill the end of this Parliament, which their consumers with superfast Committee, play crucial roles. We I believe is a crucial first action for connections, we have the best can scrutinise and bring concerns immediately connecting isolated rural developed broadband infrastructure to light and legislate for greater communities to the wider economy. of Europe’s five largest economies. investment in digital infrastructure. Account for the fact that the majority Ultimately, however, we also rely The economic potential of of connections are, at best, half on Ofcom as the independent rural Britain is immense fibre connections, however, and communications regulator and the we have in fact the least developed Advertising Standards Authority There has been seen some broadband infrastructure of these five to ensure that BT and Openreach visible progress with broadband European economies. The effect of carry out the rollout to the best infrastructure in my own constituency this misrepresentation on the ground possible benefit to the consumer. of Mid Worcestershire that shows is that people across the country – I am encouraged that the Committee that these legislative promises but particularly in rural areas – are for Advertising Practices is currently are having a substantive effect on being told that they have superfast undertaking a serious review of the ground. Driving across the internet connections yet are unable BT’s use of a 10% sample to claim county in my constituency, I am to carry out even basic online tasks. 100% superfast connectivity and was encouraged to see further cabinets also happy to see Matt Wharman with the “Superfast Broadband People across the country – MP lead a debate on this issue in coming soon” message plastered particularly in rural areas – Parliament. On the same day the across their doors. If the issues I are being told that they have Chancellor announced that £200 have highlighted with advertising superfast internet connections million additional investment would and investment are addressed, these yet are unable to carry out be given to broadband infrastructural cabinets could genuinely change even basic online tasks improvements. The severity of the lives of my constituents. the digital divide is demonstrably The economic potential of rural Clearly, it is essential that not lost on senior members of the Britain is immense. This potential Openreach is properly scrutinised Government. The Digital Economy can be even more fully realised as it carries out its contracted duty Bill is also set to introduce a once it is connected to the to provide the people of the UK Universal Service Obligation so rest of the country’s digital with broadband. This is where the that all premises in the country economy and is able to function work of my Committee and the can access broadband at a speed of within a fair and competitive passage of the Digital Economy Bill, 10Mbps as an absolute minimum by commercial playing field. •

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Tweeting with Trump John Higginson writes on the importance of truth in the President Trump era

john higginson is a conference was not “the greatest ever”. as possible the most obvious victim member of Bright Of the 16 tweets sent in the six has been the verification process. Blue and a director days after President Trump’s press President Trump has found the of Higginson PR conference, five attacked the ‘fake media’s Achilles heel and is using it media’. The press has been criticised to undermine the entire journalism On February 17, 2017 US President throughout its history for taking profession. Through Facebook, Donald Trump tweeted: “Thank words out of context, pursuing stories Twitter, Instagram and WhatsApp you for all of the nice statements that fit with the beliefs of proprietors people can block out the views of on the Press Conference yesterday. [US and concentrating on the inane over those they don’t agree with. It has Radio DJ] Rush Limbaugh said one of the important. All these points, had the effect of people at times greatest ever. Fake media not happy!” are at times, fair criticisms but the living in communications bubbles During that press conference mainstream media on the most part where they wrongly think that their President Trump claimed the roll carries out a diligent and important own view is that of the vast majority out of his administration has been job in checking fact from fiction when it is not: a phenomenon “like a fine-tuned machine” despite before publishing. It also, in general, known as confirmation bias. people turning down jobs and the gives both sides of the story even if There is evidence of a building courts blocking his ‘anti-terror’ one side is more prominent than the resistance, however. The Times Online Executive Orders. He claimed his other. Technology is changing this. now updates its website only twice in November victory was “the biggest the day rather than whenever a new Electoral College win since Ronald As every journalist fights to story or line comes in. A publishing Reagan” despite three presidents get stories onto websites as model taken from the printing press. In since Reagan having captured a larger quickly as possible the most his 2016 book The Great Acceleration: share of electoral votes than him. obvious victim has been How the world is getting faster faster, When asked by a black reporter if he the verification process Robert Colvile points out that in news had consulted with the Congressional terms people are now eating “fast Black Caucus, he asked the reporter to Ten years ago when I joined food or a three-course meal”. There set up the meeting asking her if they Westminster’s Lobby, journalist has been a growth in the number were her friends. And he accused an membership was a prerequisite to of people consuming news nuggets Orthodox Jewish reporter who asked writing about UK political news. but so to has there been growth in him about an upsurge in anti-Semitic Today, a number of talented writers people reading the 10,000-word incidents of asking him a “a very are doing so from outside of this long read. It is the in-between pieces insulting question”. Using social media group. We also didn’t tweet. At that have gone by the wayside. the 45th US President is able to do least not when I started. We would Today the truth matters more what his predecessors were unable to witness political events and the than ever. It is our job to seek to do: speak directly to his 25 million public would learn about them get our news from organisations followers, most of whom would the next day. How the world has that emphasise accuracy over speed not have seen the press conference. changed. But as every journalist and to keep our minds open by “Greatest” is subjective but the above fights to get stories onto websites seeking out the views of those we facts suggest President Trump’s press and onto TV programmes as quickly do not necessarily agree with. •

Spring 2017 | 27 bright blue politics the Centre Write interview

The Times The Centre Write interview: Steve Hilton, former director of strategy for David Cameron

Laura Round discussed technology, populism, Tory modernisation and Trump

When you were working in Government you were one of do with two major developments. The first is the the main forces behind TechCityUK and you’re now living collapse in economic security and opportunity that in Silicon Valley. Yet, rumour has it that you don't carry a so many people have experienced over the last few mobile phone. I'm curious what your attitude is towards decades. And the second is the parallel collapse in technology and whether you think it is changing politics for people’s control over the things that matter to them. the better? Is this where a concern about automation comes in? I think that it has the potential to do that, but I don't think it's quite realised that potential yet. You need The collapse in economic security and opportunity to take a couple of steps back from the immediate that so many people have experienced is not only to question about technology and look at what's driving do with technology, but it does play a huge part in it. a lot of the underlying frustration or even anger Automation is destroying jobs without creating new that people have with the political system and with ones at the same rate. The two things that have been, government. I believe technology has something to I think, rightly blamed for the collapse in economic

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>> opportunity have been globalisation and technology. resistant to participation. Although politicians claim they This - combined with centralisation of the economy, want more people to participate, I actually think that they government and politics - means people don’t feel they quite like that they can run the show their own way. The have control over the things that matter. This is what is aim of Crowdpac is to put power in people's hands so making people frustrated and angry. Except those people that those who currently have it, the insiders who have it who are leading and benefiting from those changes. feel a threat, but a good, positive democratic threat. It’s putting power directly in people’s hands, so they can be Hasn’t technology provided people with more control in in control over the things that matter to them. Within the many areas? UK, I hope Crowdpac can loosen the grip of party insiders on candidate selection and make it easier for anyone to I think the sense of a loss of control over the things that stand for parliament. If you don’t owe your position to matter is exacerbated by the fact that in some areas of the party hierarchy, you are enabled to act independently people's lives technology has given them more control. and can represent your constituents interests broadly Technology has enabled people to be much more in control with the values that you brought to your election rather over many aspects of their commercial life, whether that’s than just slavishly adopting the line of the party. your retail habits, where you get your information, what you watch, when you watch, and so on. This control Do you think this is one of the causes of politicians being heightens the sense of frustration that you can't control unpopular? things that frankly are much more important, such as your kid's education or how your government works or what Absolutely. I think a lot of the cynicism around politics happens in your local area. All those things in the political comes from that you get all these politicians who are arena and the social arena that haven't been transformed elected and then end up doing all the things everyone by technology - the fact that you don't have control over hates about politicians and politics. Such as parroting those whilst you are getting more and more control in the party line. The tight grip of the party machine is one areas that you might describe as more trivial, I think, drives of the main reasons for the dissatisfaction with politics. more anger and resentment. That's my overall philosophy If you think about it, you’re only elected because of how technology fits into what's going on in the world. you're chosen by a group of people, a very narrow group of people. Whatever party you're looking at, in This philosophy inspired you to set up Crowdpac. What is the end it's the insiders who pick you as the candidate. the purpose of the company? Why should that be the case? Why should the party choose the candidate? The whole point of Crowdpac What I'm trying to do is use technology to give people is to end the stranglehold of the party machines on more control in one particular aspect of politics, by politics generally and candidate selection specifically. making it much easier for citizens to participate in politics effectively, whether that's standing for office yourself In your book More Human you’ve been vocal about your or organising political campaigns and getting back a frustrations of the civil service. Do you think the civil service sense of that power that I think has been lost through is one of the main hindrances to allow ‘the people’ to come the centralisation we've seen over many decades. first?

Do you think that these initiatives are making politicians Do you remember that the title of the 2010 Conservative more representative and responsive than they might have Manifesto was ‘Invitation to Join the Government of been before? Britain’? This was an expression of the idea that ran throughout the manifesto, which was this notion of people Not yet because it's early days, but that's our aim. I power. Decentralising power over the things that matter believe that centralisation of power makes insiders less to you. That was the idea. That was the theory. Very

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>> little of that was actually delivered, but I don’t blame by technology, having a sense of frustration about the civil servants for that. It's absolutely true that I clashed not being able to control things that matter to them, frequently with people working in the civil service but really understanding that group. Being for working I don't blame them, because what they were doing was people, not the rich, not the elite. That, I think, is a very simply expressing the will of their political masters and modernising argument and I think she makes it very well. that is completely appropriate in the system that we have. There was insufficient aggression in that fight from the Do you think that post-Cameron there’s still need for politicians. All politicians get elected on a platform of modernisation within the party? saying we want to decentralise power and then the minute that they get there actually end up quite liking the power I think that Theresa May has a particularly restricted view that they have. Conservative politicians in 2010 said “We on immigration. That was a source of contention when won't be like that, we'll be different." Of course, they we were working together - when I was in Number 10 weren't different, they were the same. In the end I would and she was in the Home Office. She had a view which I say very little decentralisation was actually achieved, but think was, if we're being fair, very much determined by an the fight goes on. If you really want to change things, if almost impossible task given to her by David Cameron, you really want to decentralise power, then you need to which was to get net immigration down below 100,000. change the politicians in Westminster. You've got to elect That put her in a mindset which was highly restricted on different people. You've got to elect people who are not immigration because, as I said at the time, we were told creatures of the centralised system. You've got to elect that the only way you could actually get immigration people who are truly committed to local empowerment. below that level was to leave the EU. Basically, we were told it was impossible. That's why she was always looking Many people assume you can’t be a liberal conservative and for ways to restrict immigration, however beneficial the a Brexiteer. What do you say to that? immigration might have actually been in the long-term, for example in relation to entrepreneurs. This is one of It’s obviously ridiculous. You only have to look at the particular arguments that she and I had; over what the people making the argument for Brexit on the we wanted Number 10 to do on entrepreneurs. I had this Conservative side. The leading voices there: Michael view which was let's pursue a strategy on immigration Gove, Boris Johnson, Dan Hannan and myself. which was based on a notion of quality not quantity. That We're all at the same political disposition in terms we shouldn't just be universally restrictive, but that we of being committed to an open, dynamic, globally- should actually choose the people we want to welcome engaged UK. And I think that's where Theresa here, who could make a contribution to our economy May – after some missteps – has ended up. and our society in a positive way that was globally engaged and actually stop importing cheap, unskilled Do you think Theresa May is a Tory moderniser? labour, which was not helping our economy and our society, and that mainly was from the EU. That's the In some ways, yeah. She and I were allies on a number area where I would say I don't agree with the strategies of issues, including a vital need to try and get more she's pursuing but in many, many other areas I think women elected to represent the Conservatives. So, that she is absolutely interpreting Tory modernisation in basically, yeah, I think she is. Actually, I think there is her own way and in a way that I would fully support. more to say than that. For example, I’m very pleased to see some of the arguments Theresa May has been What do you think modernisation under Theresa May will making around working people and how they’ve been look like? left behind. I think she's echoing a lot of the arguments that I made at the beginning, in terms of the way that One of the main aims of the whole modernisation so many people have been left behind by globalisation, strategy was to say that the Tory party is not just for

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>> the rich. That it isn’t just for the people who are it showed that actually all this kind of technologically doing well, but actually for the people who are working enabled, incredibly expensive, grind out the vote - hard. You can say well, perhaps it's the case that the through micro-targeting people based on big data and Cameron version of modernisation put more emphasis technology - actually flopped in the face of someone with on the people right at the bottom and the Theresa May a very visceral, emotionally-driven human connection. version puts more emphasis on those who are not right I think that that is encouraging just in its own right in at the bottom but are struggling. I think that that's a terms of the health of our democracy. In terms of what really healthy debate and we should be pleased the Tory matters now, of course, is what his administration does party is arguing about whether we help the really poor and whether it lives up to the promises made around or those who are just above them and struggling. helping working people and decentralising power, which probably isn't something that was particularly reported Looking at Trump, do you think he represents a style of in the UK, but actually was a big part of his message. politics which is more human? During the campaign he attacked the centralised power structure in Washington DC and the influence of lobbyists I think that you have got to distinguish between his and money in politics. That was one of the things campaign and what the administration does. In terms of that I found very attractive about him. The notion of the campaign, that's absolutely right. One of the things decentralisation and putting power back in people's hand. that I found very positive about the campaign was that But now, we have to wait and see if that's delivered. •

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Spring 2017 | 31 bright blue politics

Why I’m a Bright Blue MP We must provide opportunities for those left behind, argues the Rt Hon Dame Caroline Spelman MP

the rt hon dame launched on Inclusive Growth and to reflect a fast-moving world, or caroline spelman mp is Development’. This report includes ensure that those entrusted in their is the Second Church the Inclusive Development Index care are well protected and equipped Estates Commissioner (IDI) which measures 109 countries for global challenges. For example, for inclusive growth. Out of these, if the education system failed to In 2016, we witnessed the global 30 are considered within the sub- teach computer literacy, a whole rise of populism. I believe index of advanced economies. The generation of school children would strongly that this is a reflection UK ranks 21st just above America grow up digitally disadvantaged. If on the inability of governments to at 23rd. The marked difference is basic labour standards fail to keep adequately address the big challenges the Scandinavian region of Europe pace with technological changes arising from globalisation. - at the top of the IDI is Norway, and are too inflexible to support For example, the low-waged in with Sweden 6th and Finland rising productivity through skills relatively rich, developed nations have 11th. Organisation for Economic adaptation, then a whole generation seen a squeeze on their incomes as Co-operation and Development of workers will find themselves it has become harder to compete in (OECD) data also shows that the facing redundancy. These changes a global marketplace. A recent poll UK had a higher level of income will only intensify as the ‘Fourth found that 49% of participants felt inequality (36%) than most European Industrial Revolution’ strikes that globalisation has pushed wages countries in 2013 based on the Gini and new technologies down for British workers, while coefficient for disposable income. threaten the old order. 51% thought that it had led to more Growth in many advanced inequality between rich and poor. economies has not translated well Institutions must be able to It is not the case that global liberal into social inclusion, but I would make the adjustments to elites have deliberately ignored this argue this is due to a lack of focussed reflect a fast-moving world looming problem. However, the attention rather than an iron law responses we have seen, such as the of capitalism. We must encourage I support Bright Blue’s vision raising of the minimum wage to the the development of new policy which believes in releasing human living in the UK, and America’s efforts frameworks and creative ideas to potential. Although we have to provide healthcare for the poorest, strengthen broad-based economic substantial challenges to navigate as are palliative policies which have not growth that is inclusive of a large a global community, it is critically addressed some of the underlying part of the nation’s labour force, as important that we continue to believe causes of inequality. In my opinion, Bright Blue consistently argues. that individuals, no matter their countries have missed the opportunity If we are looking at developing background or identity, can flourish to include more of their populations an agenda to boost social inclusion given the right support. We must in economic growth and we must take and economic efficiency, we should provide opportunities for those who the social frustrations being expressed do so through a stronger focus on have been described as ‘left behind’, through ballot boxes seriously. appropriate institutions. The role of ensuring that they also start to see This was a key theme at the institutions is a key principle in Bright rising living standards and learn how 2017 World Economic Forum Blue’s underlying ethos. Institutions to engage with and benefit from (WEF), where a new report was must be able to make the adjustments wider technological progress. •

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Driving off into the future Sam Hall on Britain’s love affair with the car and the technological changes to come

sam hall is a senior researcher at Bright Blue

Britain is a nation of car lovers. There are over 30 million cars on our roads, which together drive over 250 billion miles a year. They are a staple of everyday life, particularly for those living outside central London: taking us to work, carrying our shopping home, and transporting us to socialise with friends. Three profound technological shifts are about to hit the automotive world: automation, Aviation Bill will expand standard for electric, urban air pollution which electrification, and digitalisation. But motor insurance to cover times when is linked to over 40,000 premature will these be changes for the better? driverless technology, rather than deaths each year in the UK, will And if so, how can government an individual, is in control of the fall. So too will carbon emissions, support and accelerate them? vehicle. Car companies are already which have recently been increasing First, automation. Driverless cars are trialling driverless cars on our roads. across the transport sector as higher just around the corner, bringing with To unlock the real benefit of reduced demand has offset efficiency gains. them a host of benefits. Removing congestion, however, requires In the future, however, electrification the need to concentrate on the road, between a half and three quarters will deliver economic boons too, motorists will be freed up to spend of the vehicle fleet to be driverless, as the cost of batteries falls and time on more productive activities. according to government research. electricity prices undercut oil. Groups such as the elderly and Sensing the opportunity to achieve disabled, now unable to drive, will Groups such as the elderly multiple policy objectives in one, gain the independence that comes and disabled, now unable Ministers have been vocal champions from access to a car. But most to drive, will gain the for electric vehicles, featuring them importantly, as automatic driving independence that comes heavily in the Government’s new systems are programmed strictly from access to a car modern industrial strategy launched to follow the Highway Code, earlier this year. The Government there will be a fall in the 25,000 Second, electrification. The internal offers drivers up to £4,500 off people killed or seriously injured combustion engine, which burns the upfront cost of a new electric each year on Britain’s roads. petrol or diesel, is on the way out, vehicle, and has released funds for The Government is ambitious and looks set to be replaced by an new charging infrastructure. In the about establishing the UK as a electric battery. The benefits of electric forthcoming Vehicle Technology leader in this area. The soon-to-be- vehicles are currently predominantly and Aviation Bill, it will attempt introduced Vehicle Technology and environmental. By swapping diesel to regulate this new market, for

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>> instance by making it easy for financial sense not to own your transport services, the debate about drivers to use multiple companies’ own car, with digital services like how to regulate self-employment is infrastructure without many Zipcar giving residents access to cars still raging. But the prize is great. different expensive memberships. without investing their own capital. But electric vehicles will struggle to Digitalisation, therefore, could drive In cities, it makes penetrate the mass market until the cars off urban roads. Over time, land increasingly good number of charge points is radically currently given over to roads and car financial sense not to increased from its current 12,000. parks could be repurposed to expand own your own car Third, digitalisation. Data is the number and size of green spaces. transforming how consumers engage Individually, each one of these As well as industrial opportunities with their car. Current vehicle owners three forces is a big change. But for manufacturers and potential can plan and navigate their journeys together, they are a revolution. We productivity gains for the wider more efficiently with services like have not arrived in the future yet. economy, these new transport Google Maps, as well as generate Electric cars, for example, have just technologies promise an improved an income from their vehicle by over 1% of the new vehicle market. quality of life. On radically new using digital platforms like Uber. Nor have all the policy questions terms, Britain’s love affair with In cities, it makes increasingly good been settled; particularly in digital the car looks set to continue. •

Bright Blue research update James Dobson updates us on Bright Blue’s research programme

james dobson is a were co-producers and authors mind, we have recently launched researcher at Bright Blue of a new cross-party Brexit a new high-profile campaign Together manifesto, outlining a calling for the the Government compromise deal that would satisfy to at least maintain current levels At the end of last month the Prime both Leavers and Remainers. of grants for tree-planting. Minister triggered Article 50 of the Our recently published report, A month before, we launched a Treaty on European Union (EU) to Green conservatives? Understanding new petition - with the support of a notify the EU of Britain’s intention what conservatives think about variety of civic society organisations - to leave. The notification was quickly the environment, stated that we urging the Prime Minister to commit followed by the White Paper for the should have a ‘Green Brexit’. the UK to remaining a signatory Great Repeal Bill, which sets out Indeed, an overwhelming majority to the European Convention on how the Government will ensure a of Conservative voters want to Human Rights (ECHR) after functioning statute book after the UK maintain or strengthen all of Brexit. The Government seems to leaves the EU. Brexit will undoubtedly the main current environmental be listening, reaffirming the UK’s dominate the headlines over the next regulations that derive from the EU. ongoing commitment to the ECHR two years as the Government seeks Brexit presents both opportunities in the White Paper for the Great to negotiate a good deal for the UK. and challenges. The end of the Repeal Bill. But we know the Prime What should the Brexit deal Common Agricultural Policy Minister is sceptical of the ECHR look like? Bright Blue is and will (CAP) will save the UK exchequer and that it is important to show her be at the heart of this debate. We billions of pounds. With this in the importance and popularity

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>> of the UK remaining a signatory. third major output: a new paper by team will for the rest of the year This petition is just one of over 60 a former senior judge on the history be developing ideas for a cross- policies that we will be advocating and future of human rights in the UK, departmental approach to promoting in the final report we will soon with suggestions for the Government conservation, both domestically be launching from our year-long on the future of the Human Rights and across the world. And, in our inquiry on Conservatism and human Act and the British Bill of Rights. immigration and integration theme, rights, which is headed by a high- One of Bright Blue’s major research we have just started a project profile commission including three themes is ‘Social reform’. Indeed, seeking to understand more fully former Cabinet Ministers. This final our upcoming annual conference the effects immigration has on social report includes policies designed to: will provide a platform for people integration. For this project, we will reduce all forms of discrimination from different professional and analyse levels of neighbourhood in education, employment and social backgrounds to come trust in local authorities in the UK society; protect human rights in together to discuss new ways of and assess the impact of different the UK; and champion human tackling stubborn social problems, socio-demographic factors, including rights in British foreign policy. from the housing crisis to global levels of immigration, on it, This report from our commission poverty. In the summer, we will There are smaller projects on the will be quickly followed by a new also be publishing a new paper future of citizenship and pensions polling report which unearths from an independent expert on the to look out for too. As you can in greater detail how different future of civic society, otherwise see, Bright Blue has a relevant and Conservative voters think about referred to as ‘the big society’, or growing programme of research human rights. Our Conservatism and even now ‘the shared society’! to inform public debate and human rights project also includes a Our energy and environment influence government thinking. •

latest report Green conservatives? Understanding what conservatives think about the environment

Sam Hall Green conservatives?

Preserving and enhancing the environment for UNDERSTANDING WHAT CONSERVATIVES THINK future generations to enjoy should be at the heart ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT of conservative thinking. But a small number of SAM HALL high-profile conservatives are sceptical of environmental policies, particularly those that mitigate climate change. This polling report unearths what most Conservative voters think about protecting the natural environment and reducing the harmful effects of climate change. It examines the views of Conservatives, including those with different socio-demographic characteristics, on key environmental issues such as air pollution, home energy improvements, Britain’s power sector, and the future of environmental regulations post-Brexit.

Spring 2017 | 35 brexit corner

We’re all Brexiteers now People are putting the referendum behind them in a quest to secure the best Brexit, says Matthew Elliott

matthew elliott was the world”. And it is easy to forget Leave vote was a vote to pull up the CEO of Vote Leave and that Theresa May MP, the Prime drawbridge on ‘fortress Britain’. is now a Senior Fellow at Minister who has pledged to lead This inward-looking, isolationist the Legatum Institute us towards a new ‘Global Britain’, caricature of Brexit is not what I was indeed a Remain supporter or my colleagues at Vote Leave Despite the recent fightback from herself during the referendum. campaigned for, nor do I believe recalcitrant Remainers, led by Countless business leaders who is it what the country voted for. former Prime Ministers Blair and backed Remain, both from British Throughout the referendum Major, it is well worth remembering and international firms, have hailed campaign, Vote Leave emphasised the majority of Brits have been Brexit for the huge opportunities that it was not about stopping keen to put disagreements over it brings, while trade experts, such migration, but controlling it, and the referendum behind them. Far as my colleague Shanker Singham, we highlighted the many benefits from trying to re-fight the battles of heading up the Special Trade that migration, when managed in 2016 and perpetuate Leave-Remain Commission at the Legatum Institute, a properly balanced way, has and divisions, most voters are now keen to have got fully behind the result will continue to bring to the UK. embrace Britain’s post-Brexit future, and are applying their considerable Far from pulling up the regardless of which way they voted. knowledge and experience towards drawbridge, we argued that Indeed, a recemt ICM poll showed shaping the optimal Brexit which Brexit would give us the opportunity that 68% of people now agreed that allows Britain to flourish. to end the current system which the Government should simply discriminates against talented people get on with delivering the result. Far from trying to re-fight who want to come to this country Among them have been many the battles of 2016 and but are not allowed in, simply MPs who were wholehearted perpetuate Leave-Remain because they happen to be supporters of Remain during the divisions, most voters are now born outside the EU. referendum campaign, but have keen to embrace Britain’s It is manifestly unfair that now embraced the referendum post-Brexit future, regardless unlimited numbers of people are result - the largest number of votes of which way they voted allowed to come to the UK from for anyone or anything in British anywhere within the European electoral history - and are determined There is no doubt that many Union, whilst the best and brightest to push for the best possible future Remainers still feel uncomfortable from elsewhere cannot. Brexit for Britain outside the EU. about one major aspect of Brexit - gives us the opportunity to end Grant Shapps MP is now backing immigration - in no small part due to this discriminatory approach to Brexit “all the way, as hard as you the often inflammatory rhetoric of immigration and implement an like”. Nick Boles MP has called Nigel Farage and his allies. Anti- immigration policy that selects for Britain to leave “without immigration quotes from Farage people based on the skills they have, recriminations or regret, and challenge and others are still paraded by some rather than where they were born. ourselves to develop a twenty-first Remainers as representative of the Whilst the main ‘Project Fear’ century model of openness and attitudes of everyone on the Leave predictions of the Remain campaign dynamism that will be a lesson to side, perpetuating the myth that the have been completely blown apart by

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>> the flourishing of the British Britain fearful that Brexit will see part of it, not least because the vast economy since Brexit, it has left Britain cut off from the EU. But as majority of the top universities in an unwelcome legacy, with many time passes, it will become clear that Europe are actually in the UK. of those who supported Remain we have nothing to fear in that regard. The consensus around making a still fearing the worst as a result of The PM set out a bold and success of Brexit is growing ever the bombardment of overblown internationalist vision of Brexit in her stronger as people increasingly put negative predictions throughout Lancaster House speech, and made the divisions of the referendum the referendum campaign. it clear that we will be continuing to campaign behind them. With the It is no surprise that the relentless cooperate as closely as possible with doom and pessimism of Project stream of dire economic warnings the EU on everything from economics Fear being proven wrong on an and claims that we would no longer and trade to security, research and almost daily basis, there is every be able to live, study and travel in higher education. Indeed, the EU’s reason to believe that Britain Europe, accompanied by the incessant Erasmus+ university exchange will emerge stronger, more refrain that Brexit would mean scheme already includes many non- internationalist and more united “leaving Europe”, as opposed to EU countries as full members, and after Brexit. And the day will come simply leaving an unwieldy political it would be extremely unlikely that when everyone will be able to say, project, has left many people in the UK will not continue to be a “We’re all Brexiteers now”. •

Ensuring creativity reigns

Vicky Ford MEP on the future of the Digital Single Market and how Britain must reinforce the message that it is open for business

vicky ford mep is employers and ooze innovation and combatting cyber security all the Chairman of and entrepreneurship. They are require a cross-border approach. the Committee on inextricably linked, as each is crucial After the UK leaves, the remaining Internal Market and to the other’s success. For example, EU countries will continue to develop Consumer Protection vibrant e-commerce gives designers the Digital Single Market. What it direct access to consumers, and digital may look like, and what relationship Whilst much of the analysis on platforms are now the norm for the the UK retains will continue to affect the impact of Brexit has focused delivery of music, film and video. British creative and digital sectors. on sector specific issues, I believe The UK was the driving force These industries punch above their it is also important to look across behind the Digital Single Market weight in their contribution to trade multiple sectors to develop a holistic initiative, with good reason, as as digitally intensive companies strategy and to avoid accusations of removing barriers to trade gives already make up nearly a quarter of ‘cherry picking’ in negotiations. access to Europe’s 500 million British exports. Whilst there will be The digital and creative sectors are consumers and thus encourages potential opportunities from new amongst the fastest growing parts of global players to base themselves in trade agreements, it is important the UK economy. At present, creative Europe. As such, the UK expected to recognise and that 40% of our industries make up 5% of UK’s to benefit significantly. Furthermore, creative exports 50% of our digital output and digital companies another issues like safeguarding intellectual exports currently go to EU markets. 7%. Both sectors are significant property, protecting children online For many businesses, access to the

Spring 2017 | 37 brexit corner

>> Digital Single Market was a key factor in locating operations in Britain. If this is constrained key players may choose to reduce or relocate their European presence, therefore maintaining strong digital trade is of strategic importance for both Europe and Britain. Relying on World Trade Organisation rules is not an attractive solution as it does not offer protection against discrimination for cross-border service providers. Moreover, no existing EU Free Trade Agreement provides anything NASA/GSFC like the level of mutual market access currently experienced by additional bureaucracy, such as extra signal that it intends to implement the UK, therefore a specific and checks on sending small packages GDPR has given some welcome bespoke arrangement is required. across borders, this could have a certainty. UK legislators will need Both the digital and creative huge impact on creative sub-sectors. to remain vigilant to reduce the sectors point to the need for legal Skills and talent are also fundamental risk of divergence in the future. certainty and the desire to avoid to maintaining world leading status. Other issues such as EU Patents, regulatory divergence in the future. Ensuring that strong home grown trade and Conformité Européen EU business laws will continue to talent can easily be combined (CE) marks, and continued access impact UK businesses trading within with international skillsets and to cross-border capital resources, the EU on issues like copyright, exchanges of cultural experiences are all require careful consideration Audiovisual Media Services and straightforward and frictionless is and a smooth transition. consumer rights. Existing legislation essential for both sectors. Reassuring Relying on World Trade in all of these areas is currently being EU citizens of their status is Organisation rules is not an updated for a digital age and British important and if the UK chooses to attractive solution as it does not offer Conservative MEPs continue to introduce a visa-based system, this protection against discrimination be active in the scrutiny process. needs to reflect the sectors’ needs for cross-border service provider. Once we leave, the EU regulatory and not just be based on earnings. There are signs that the Single framework will not stop evolving A clear and robust legal process Market, without the UK, risks so if new non-tariff barriers are to for data sharing is crucial for digital being more protectionist and less be avoided then a new cooperation communications. Over 10% of all open than it has been to date. mechanism will be needed. global cross-border data flows pass This would not necessarily be in Regulatory detail matters. When through Britain, and three quarters of Britain’s interest as digital innovators the 28 European finance ministers these also involve other EU countries. may choose to re-prioritise other decided to change the rules for VAT The recent negotiations on the EU’s parts of the globe. It is important on digital sales, it was small British General Data Protection Regulation the UK Government continues creative businesses who suffered most (GDPR) set a complex balance to reinforce the message that as our micro-businesses had embraced between protecting personal data Britain remains welcoming and the opportunities to sell online privacy whilst facilitating intelligence open, and continues to cooperate across borders. If a new relationship services, business and research closely with our EU neighbours with the EU Customs Union means needs. The UK Government’s recent as well as other jurisdictions. •

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The Brexit wake-up call Christophe Premat wants the Government to guarantee the rights of Europeans living in the UK immediately

christophe premat Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. and after the referendum, trying Premat is the French Travelling around the UK to meet to answer the wide-ranging MP representing French my constituents, I realised early on questions French nationals in nationals living in that Brexit was a real possibility, the UK had, including on work Northern Europe no matter how disconcerting permits, permanent residency, and unpleasant that thought was. dual citizenship, retirement rights, A lot of people woke up on the 24 Only a positive, courageous and university fees, benefits and access June, 2016 struggling to believe more robust Remain campaign to healthcare. There are many that Britain had chosen to leave could have savaged a long and questions and all point to the the European Union. They were enduring British tradition of uneasiness at best and fear at worst struggling because, heading into fabricating facts about Europe. that the Brexit vote could take the vote count, the polls tended to away what my constituents had show a slight Remain advantage in The truth though is been taking for granted. In many what had been a very tight race. that you only needed to ways, Brexit has cast doubts on the It was not just the polls but also leave London to realise a life they have chosen. For a lot of the gambling world and the financial Leave result was likely them, Britain has indeed become markets that seemed to be caught their home, whether they have been by surprise. It quickly transpired What was a surprise for some was, in the country for a few years or too that even the very people that however, devastation for others. for decades. The emotional impact had called the referendum had not The EU is about human beings and of the vote on many is real and expected a victory for the Leave their rights, notably the right to live, should not be underestimated. camp and had made no preparations work and retire in another country. to see the country through the Yet three million Europeans living The emotional impact of turbulences created by the vote. in the UK and 1.2 million British the vote on many is real and citizens living on the continent, should not be underestimated Only a positive, courageous most of them unable to vote on and more robust Remain the 23 June, 2016, have been left in This feeling of rejection has been campaign could have savaged limbo by a decision taken by others. made worse, I believe, by the over- a long and enduring British After the vote, the French complicated process of applying tradition of fabricating National Assembly decided on for permanent residence, which facts about Europe 20 July, 2016 to create a Select places unnecessary administrative Committee working on the burdens on applicants. In a recent The truth though, is that you consequences of the Brexit vote. letter to the Home Secretary Amber only needed to leave London to It published its conclusions in Rudd, I asked that the process is realise a Leave result was likely. February of this year and pointed made simpler and fairer. The EU I am a French MP representing out the necessity of clarifying the Parliament has also taken up the French people living in the situation of European citizens in the issue and is setting up a Taskforce to UK, Ireland, Sweden, Norway, UK once Article 50 is triggered. investigate the British Government’s Finland, Denmark, Iceland, I held several surgeries, before treatment of EU nationals living

Spring 2017 | 39 brexit corner

>> in the UK who have applied for EU nationals that have that the UK had always citizenship or permanent residency every right to be in the UK have a different conception since the Brexit vote. I will work and remain in the country of Europe and had, at times, with this Taskforce because EU as permanent residents been seen as being difficult, nationals that have every right to be should not be the victims of they would have wished to in the UK and remain in the country unnecessary bureaucracy continue the European project as permanent residents should with Britain inside the EU, not be the victims of unnecessary What is equally urgent is for the not outside. But they also bureaucracy. My strong belief is that EU to stand up to the challenge that made clear that the result of it is within the Government’s power Brexit represents and implement the UK referendum needed to to simplify the application process much-needed reforms, strengthen be respected. There is no time and go beyond the mere digitisation its common policies and crucially to be wasted; it is now more of applications by rolling back some reconnect with EU citizens. than ever time to revive the of the complexity that has been France and other member states European project and build a introduced over the last few years. made it clear that despite the fact progressive and social Europe. •

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Can Brexit unite as well as divide? Sunder Katwala argues Brexit is the most important decision the country has made for half a century and that ‘Remainers’ and ‘Leavers’ need to work together

sunder katwala is incomprehension between the most represent had majorities for Leave. Director of British Future ardent Remainers and Leavers But Her Majesty’s Opposition’s on social media was very much a challenges with leadership, economic minority sport, especially popular credibility and party unity existed Brexit is the most important with those who rarely talk to before Brexit. To argue there is some decision our country has made anybody who voted the other way. existential impossibility in combining for half a century. However, our The mood at the school-gate in the an appeal to voters on both sides post-referendum politics have yet final weeks of the campaign was of the referendum is to miss the to rise to the scale of the occasion. very different: “I am definitely going purpose of what politics is for. We have seen little grace in either to look into it more before I make The Conservatives are riding high victory or defeat. We now move from up my mind” was a fairly constant in the polls, but they are not doing the phoney war phase – a vacuum refrain. That helps to explain why so on Leave votes alone. Indeed, often filled by efforts to refight the Lord Ashcroft’s referendum day poll the recent ICM poll with the party referendum - to the real politics of the found that four out of ten voters hitting heady heights of 44% had the deal that Britain wants with Europe. on each side say they made up their Conservatives combining 50% of Most of the public will now want minds in the last four weeks. Leave votes with 41% of Remainers to see the politicians do more to get Rumours of a ‘Brexit realignment’ - about four times the share of the out of the referendum trenches and of British politics look rather Liberal Democrats. If Theresa May work together on a Brexit deal that exaggerated. The political projects did not have any Conservative can bring the country together. That that appeal to only one referendum Remain voters, she would be in was the aim of the Brexit Together tribe may hit a ceiling around 15% a three-way tie in the polls with manifesto – which involved voices of the vote each, if UKIP were to Jeremy Corbyn and Tim Farron on from Remain and Leave, left and right, be merely a voice of complaint 25% - rather than dominating the a broad coalition involving voices for those who cannot see why we political landscape. The Conservative from the Adam Smith Institute and should bother negotiating at all over 2015 vote split 60:40 for Leave. The Bright Blue to the Fabian Society, the Brexit terms, or if the Liberal Prime Minister will want a deal that to set out the type of future Brexit Democrats become a mirror image can keep most of those eight million vision which could make sense to for those in university towns who Leave and five million Remain voters most Leave and most Remain voters. seek to ‘take our country back’ for content, while reaching out too. The EU referendum split the country the metropolitan liberal tribe. That is what the national interest in many different ways through But no party that aspires to govern demands – and it would be a smart place, social class, age and education. could take that approach. Power party strategy too. A ‘One Nation’ Despite these splits the result will go to those who can bridge the appeal has a particular resonance in remained unpredictable until polling divide, not simply shout from one a society that is more fragmented day. For most, this was a difficult side of it. Brexit does present political and divided than it would want to decision, not one of absolutes, but difficulties for the Labour party, be. Having established that Brexit of contrasting doubts and scepticism given that two thirds of their voters means Brexit, the next task is to of both sides of the arguments. wanted to Remain, while two thirds demonstrate that the next phase can The fear, loathing and mutual of the constituencies that their MPs unite rather than divide the country. •

Spring 2017 | 41 Opinion Paper Digital Vision Digital Vision for London for Government

Digital Vision books and arts

Books & Arts

Exhibiton: Robots The Science Museum, London

Opinion Paper fiona smithis Events Digital Vision Digital Vision and Administration for London for Government Officer at Bright Blue Having avidly watched the TV series Humans, exploring what life would be like with robots by our side and what could happen should they become sentient, I approached the Science Museum’s newest exhibition with some excitement. Visitors are greeted by rows of near-skeletal metallic heads, and a writhing robot baby. But the birth of robotics begins not with androids, but with clocks. Clocks and clockwork previously Digital Vision seemed to propel the heavens above, prompting sage scholars and scientists to ask: were people built from a kind dawn of artificial intelligence. robot, and even an acting robot. of clockwork too? Religion has often All the individual elements of The actor cheerily calls out to me, overlapped with science. Indeed, the the classic humanoid robot are “Hello there young man!” – there is Catholic Church commissioned early displayed. There are intricately still room for improvement, clearly. automatons or dioramas depicting detailed 3D printed hands. Bipedal The exhibition ends with an Biblical scenes to educate and amaze. walking was first conquered by unnervingly realistic feminine The exhibition displays an intricate Honda’s P2 robot and made cute by robot from Japan (where else). animated swan and a tiny robot its successor, SoftBank’s Pepper. Kneeling to take “her” picture, I am spider. Descartes, the great thinker, Service robots are displayed, uncomfortable. I feel as voyeuristic proclaimed that only people have highlighting the promise of relief as a tourist stopping to snap a souls – animals are but mere automata. from labour and increase in leisure Geisha. The other service robots Several film posters and toys time. Now with increasing unease, as deliberately don’t look like people. are on display, from Cybermen the future of automation arrives, we As I leave I eyeball the shop to the Terminator. The twentieth all ask about the safety of our own assistants at the exit- are they real? • century brought us the first voice- jobs. Artists are surely most secure activated robots and heralded the – yet on display is a trumpet-playing Robots runs until 3 September 2017 at The Science Museum, London.

Spring 2017 | 43 books and arts

All Out War By Tim Shipman

michael hough is a supporters and the battle for Research Assistant the nomination between Vote at Bright Blue Leave and Grassroots Out. The controversial Dominic Cummings All Out War is a comprehensive, features prominently, alongside balanced and thorough account the attempted coup which could of the EU Referendum campaign. have removed him from the Vote Author Tim Shipman leaves no Leave team and possibly have stone unturned in his quest to changed the referendum result. get to the bottom of the defining The Remain side of the argument political contest of this generation is not neglected as Shipman looks as he talks with leading and rigorously into the decisions made influential contributors from by the Remain campaign. The book both sides of the debate. shows figures from the Conservative Party, the Labour Party and the The book is scrupulously fair Liberal Democrats forming a to all leading participants and temporary alliance as they all briefly steers clear of personal attacks focused on the referendum campaign. Background is provided into the the campaign are covered, starting Shipman explores the internal Eurosceptic camp and the long- with the deal Cameron struck with battles within the Conservative term planning of figures such as Europe, the deliberations of Boris Party and the Labour Party and the Daniel Hannan on how to force Johnson (including the famous efforts of Cameron and Corbyn to and fight a referendum. There is writing of two opposing articles for keep their parties together. There coverage of Douglas Carswell’s the Daily Telegraph) before finally are revelations about the differences controversial decision to defect opting to back Vote Leave, the visit of opinion in Cameron’s top team from the Conservatives to UKIP of President Obama, the threatening over the calling of the referendum, and Steve Baker’s guerilla tactics to of an emergency budget from and the subsequent decisions of enforce defeats on the Government George Osborne, Nigel Farage’s Michael Gove and Boris Johnson in the House of Commons. infamous ‘Breaking Point’ poster, to campaign for Leave. Detailed The story could not be and is and of course polling day itself. insight is provided into the tension not told without an intrinsic look between the Labour In campaign into the prominent figure of Nigel For anyone interested in led by Alan Johnson and Jeremy Farage and his financial backer knowing what happened Corbyn’s team, and the seeming Arron Banks. Farage’s role in the in this campaign both in reluctance of the Labour leader victory of the Out campaign is sure public and behind the scenes, to play a more active role. to be debated for many years to this book is a must-read There are forensic detailed records come and Shipman sensibly resists of the extraordinary breakdown making a definitive judgement. The book culminates by looking in relations between rival Leave All the dramatic moments from at the leadership contests both

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>> major parties embarked on and well-researched account of Shipman has provided a clear, balanced after the referendum, beginning the entire campaign; the political and fascinating account of the EU with the initial decision of David ramifications and how things Referendum Campaign and what Cameron to step down leading could have ended differently. came next. For anyone interested onto the remarkable decision by The book is scrupulously fair to in knowing what happened in Michael Gove to turn on Boris all leading participants and steers this campaign both in public Johnson and put himself forward clear of the personal attacks and and behind the scenes, this for leader and the subsequent unsubstantiated opinions which book is a must-read. • coronation of Theresa May. have become too common in the All Out War, Tim Shipman; William Collins; The final chapter is a clear, concise aftermath of the EU referendum. 688pp; £19.99

Cleverlands By Lucy Crehan

ryan shorthouse is the with people from random, average Director of Bright Blue schools when visiting these countries, rather than trying to arrange visits through formal channels. Cleverlands is a clever book. Her approach to evidence gathering Author Lucy Crehan, a former and reporting is, refreshingly, teacher, travels to and writes about as carefully constructed as what five different countries – Finland, you’d expect from a high-quality Japan, Singapore, China and academic paper. In fact, her Canada – that consistently top fieldwork is ethnographic. But her the annual international rankings storytelling means it’s a lot less dry. for PISA tests in reading, maths She spots cross-national trends, and science for 15 year olds. which she helpfully sums up in the final chapter. Take note, The best countries prioritise Theresa: most high-performing teacher training, autonomy education systems do not select and progression children into different schools until they are aged at least 15 or 16. Crehan explains their success The best countries prioritise teacher by assembling and summarising a training, autonomy and progression. wealth of the best academic evidence, Indeed, teachers have more time in children to master concepts – and the interweaving it with stories of her their working week and year for expectation really is that all children experiences speaking to and working continuous professional development, will achieve, with personal catch-up with parents and teachers from these thanks sometimes to bigger class tuition rather than separate curricula “education superpowers”. She, wisely, sizes. Their curricula focus on and indeed classrooms for those develops her own relationships fewer topics, giving the time for all who are struggling. A challenging

Spring 2017 | 45 books and arts

>> curriculum need not squeeze out the nurturing of character skills or the enjoyment of school life. Her “geeky gap year” teaches you a lot. For a long time now, I have campaigned for all young children to participate in high- quality pre-school education, since there is robust evidence that it boosts long-term attainment.

Take note, Theresa: most high-performing education systems do not select children into different schools until they are aged at least 15 or 16

Crehan’s policy tourism certainly supports this. But it has made me Japan, meanwhile, there is a strong relationships to help them in their think again about the starting age sense of rentai sekinin, or collective personal and business lives, such as of formal schooling, which in these responsibility. So much that, in asking a friend to help a child get into top-performing countries is older: junior high schools, teachers do a good school or university. Whereas six or indeed seven. The majority not tell off the naughty children for in Canada, which Crehan believes of young children are still in pre- their misbehaviour, but a chosen is the education system she would school (apart from in Canada) but child who is class leader, which most want her child schooled in, the for longer, learning through play, rotates throughout the year. most qualified teachers are Learning but they are not expected to be One criticism of Crehan’s work Support Teachers, providing extra reading or adding up until later. is her tendency to try and explain tuition for those who are struggling There’s some really revealing and every phenomenon she encounters. or have special educational needs. quite peculiar stuff in this book. In Sometimes there simply isn’t any These are just two examples where China, there is a policy of hukou, or sufficient research on it: instead the cultural clichés don’t apply. which means people can only access of admitting that, she dresses up public services in their registered speculation as rigorous explanation. A challenging curriculum hometown. Migrants to Shanghai, She can, in some places, try too need not squeeze out the who have a secure job, can send hard to describe occurrences to nurturing of character skills their children to primary school in fit with overreaching themes and or the enjoyment of school life the city. But this is not possible for arguments she is pushing. high school attendance, apart from Crehan can, in a few instances, This book deserves to be read a few ‘qualified’ migrants or those also fall back on tired assumptions, by everyone interested in education with good connections. So nearly without questioning them. Such as policy. It is filled with quantitative half of the city’s children – who are the societies in the West are more and qualitative evidence, presented poorer and less educated - leave individualistic and less community- in a rigorous and entertaining way. the city at age 13 or 14, excluding orientated than in the East. But, in Top marks for Lucy Crehan. • them from Shanghai’s PISA tests, China, she uncovers guanxi: where which are remarkably good. In people use mutually-beneficial Cleverlands, Lucy Crehan; Unbound; 320pp; £16.99

46 | Centre Write OUR PARLIAMENTARY SUPPORTERS

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Spring 2017 | 47 Social reform Bright Blue is generating fresh thinking about the purpose, design and financing of the UK’s education and welfare systems to boost life chances and national prosperity. To compete in the global race, Britain needs to significantly improve the skills of its workforce and broaden access to high quality academic and vocational education. As the economy becomes more globalised, competitive and automated, Britain’s social security system also needs revamping to improve its effectiveness and popularity.

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