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Real Options Methodology in Sportswear Retail Investment Valuation Portland State University PDXScholar Dissertations and Theses Dissertations and Theses 1-1-2011 Real Options Methodology in Sportswear Retail Investment Valuation Hairong Karen Gui Portland State University Follow this and additional works at: https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds Let us know how access to this document benefits ou.y Recommended Citation Gui, Hairong Karen, "Real Options Methodology in Sportswear Retail Investment Valuation" (2011). Dissertations and Theses. Paper 145. https://doi.org/10.15760/etd.145 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access. It has been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations and Theses by an authorized administrator of PDXScholar. Please contact us if we can make this document more accessible: [email protected]. Real Options Methodology in Sportswear Retail Investment Valuation by Hairong Karen Gui A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctorate of Philosophy in Systems Science: Business Administration Dissertation Committee: John Oh, Chair Janet Hamilton Thomas Gillpatrick Wayne Wakeland Timothy Anderson Phil Knight (non-voting member) Michael Wrinn (non-voting member) Portland State University © 2011 Real Options Methodology in Sportswear Retail Investment Valuation Abstract Abstract The net present value (NPV) approach has been widely accepted by corporate practitioners and academics as the principle tool for evaluating the feasibility of corporate financial investment opportunities. It conceptually provides an estimate in present value terms of a proposed investment’s incremental contribution to the firm, enabling the company to pursue its goal of value maximization with more assurance. NPV uses a discount rate that in theory captures market risks. In the stable growth or mature industries, NPV works well. However, in high investment/high risk-return (HI/HRR) industries, where the investment environment is often profiled as highly uncertain with high returns, NPV is insufficient to reflect the multidimensional risks, hence unable to capture the extensive investment returns that may consist of non-financial values. This dissertation applies the real option (RO) valuation methodology, supplementing the NPV method to evaluate the return of the sports retail industry (SRI) flagship stores investments. This study further demonstrates that there are strategic values captured by the RO valuation method, complementing the financial values attained by the NPV. To test this assertion, we use case methodology to analyze four flagship investment activities (proprietary business data are concealed). These investments represent various investment options, including growth, expansion, staging, and delay. The cases include projections made prior to the investment, the retrospective application of RO to estimate strategic value, and the actual returns from these investments. Findings demonstrate convincingly RO methodology can and should be usefully applied to supplement the NPV method in HI/HRR industries, and SRI in particular. i Real Options Methodology in Sportswear Retail Investment Valuation Abstract Acknowledgements I would like to gratefully and sincerely thank my Committee members for their advice, patience, and, most importantly, their mentorship during my graduate studies. Without the strong support and guidance of Dr. John Oh, Dr. Janet Hamilton, Dr. Tom Gillpatrick, and Dr. Wayne Wakeland, and Mr. Phil Knight and Dr. Michael Wrinn, I would not have been able to complete this work. I am greatly grateful to them. In 2005, when I was searching for dissertation research topic, Dr. Beverly Fuller introduced me to the Real Option concept. From my work at Nike, I witness leadership’s ability to see beyond the financial data in strategic decision-making. Tim Hershey, then General Manager of Retail, sparked my interest in the analysis and quantification of strategic values embedded in retail investments in the sportswear industry. While working for the company overseas, I visited many flagship stores in many countries to personally experience and observe the “non-financial” embedded values. These trips reinforced my belief that some of the flagship stores’ strategic merits are not fully captured or measured by financial numbers. In seeking managerial insights as why these investments were made, I was privileged to interview practitioners, seeking their practical insights. These indispensable discussions provide exceedingly valuable input to this study. I would like to thank them all for sharing their knowledge and expertise. A special appreciation is dedicated to Mr. Phil Knight, a leader who, in essence, shaped the sportswear industry for my generation and for future generations. Mr. Knight inspired and continues to inspire me to challenge the “conventional wisdom.” I am very thankful to his coaching on Nike’s heritage, an unwavering and lasting legacy. ii Real Options Methodology in Sportswear Retail Investment Valuation Abstract The most important person in this research effort, and the person who made completion of this work and my study possible, is my Committee Chairman, Dr. John Oh. Not only did he bring this research to life and steer me through this PhD journey, but also he cultivated, evolved and enhanced my professional, academic, and personal growth. Through this long and sometimes lonely tunnel, I have benefited greatly from his strong mentorship and friendship. Dr. Oh has been my guiding light in this research and throughout this long journey. “Once teacher, lifetime mentor.” I am indebted to Dr. Oh. A very special thank-you must be dedicated to William Bloom, my colleague, friend, and editor. He encouraged me to become a noble educator, also an optimistic, helpful individual with an open mind and a humble heart. I would not be here today without the inspiration, motivation and encouragement of my Honorary “uncle Bill.” Finally, I would like to thank my father, mother, and sister. For over eight years, you have given me steadfast support, encouragement, patience and unconditional love. Your tolerances of my obsession of continuous learning, your faith and confidence in me, and your willingness to allow me to be as ambitious as I wanted to be, have been unwavering. Because of you, I have endless drive, energy, and motivation to tackle whatever lies ahead of me. This part of my life-long learning journey started with a dream, a dream that someday I can become a great inspirational educator like my father. He is my source of wisdom and strength of mind in life. I have asked Dr. Oh and all of the people who helped and contributed in this study, “How I can thank you?” They all simply tell me to “Pass it on.” Thank you. I shall. iii Real Options Methodology in Sportswear Retail Investment Valuation Abstract Main Contributors to this Research Phil Knight (Chairman & Co-Founder, Nike, Inc.) Robert Merton, Ph.D. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology/Nobel Prize Winner) Tim Hershey (VP/GM Nike Retail North America) Trevor Vigfusson (CFO, Nike Global Retail) William Bloom (Advisor, JD) Interviewees (in the order of interviews) Keith Fitz-Gerald (Investment Director Money Map Press) Charlie Wadsworth (CFO, Vtech Inc, Former Europe Finance Director, Nike Inc.) David Sanderson (Europe Retail Finance Director, Nike Inc.) Ryan K. Smith (CFO, Nike Golf) Simon Kemmett (Sr. Director Business Planning, Former CFO, Nike Europe) Lisa McKillips (Assistant to Phil Knight, Nike Inc) Eunan McLaughlin (Former President Nike Affiliates Brands) Victor Williems (LEAN Business Solutions, European Director) Sonia de Paolis (Treasury Director, TomTom, former Sr Treasury Analyst, Nike Inc) Maximo Alfonsi (Founder, MaxieWeb) Olivier Pennetier (Counselor, One Plus Investment, France; Former Niketown Paris, GM) Sean Ghouse (Head of Home Retail Alfred Dunhill, Former Niketown London GM) Orences Christian (Jordan Brand Sales Rep, Former Niketown Chicago General Manager) Rob Weerts (Niketown Project Manager, Nike Inc.) iv Real Options Methodology in Sportswear Retail Investment Valuation Abstract Jean-Philippe Sauvageot (Director of Stores Western Europe) Nicola Chardon (Former European Retail Finance Director) Jon McCathy (former UK Retail Development Manager, Nike Inc) Paul Klein (West Europe Merchandizing Manager, Nike Inc) Raymond Gregor (Window Dresser, De Bijenkorf Department Store, Amsterdam) Dale Frakes (Senior Supply Chain Analyst, Nike Inc) Philip Hatton (Golf Club Business Manager, Nike Inc) Bill Mullen (LEAN Director, Nike Inc) Ronald Tracey (Enterprise Architecture Director, Nike Inc) Arnie Gardner (Dir Global Financial Planning, Nike Inc) Tambert Lau (Retired Nike Senior Product Engineer) Allan Brovo (Niketown Chicago original store design project lead) Dan Burris (GM Action Sports, Nike Inc) Janet Callahan (Emerging Market Retail Operation Manager, Nike, Inc) Kelly Heiden (Process Manager, Nike Inc) Nelson Farris (Nike Communication Director) Richard McDaniel (Retail Concept Director) Marshall McCauley (Nike Planning/Allocation Director) v Real Options Methodology in Sportswear Retail Investment Valuation Table of Contents Table of Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................ i List of Tables ..................................................................................................................... ix List of Figures ....................................................................................................................
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