Food Security Update: November 25, 2000

Summary

Niger’s Ministry of Rural Development (MDR) has released its estimate of gross production of rainfed millet and sorghum. After two consecutive good harvests in 1998 and 1999, Niger’s millet and sorghum harvest for 2000 was 19 percent below 1999 levels and 3 percent below the five-year average (1995-99). Based on the provisional estimates of rainfed and irrigated production as well as estimated net stocks and projected net imports, the national cereal balance for 2000/01 (November-October) shows a deficit of approximately 163,000 MT, equivalent to about 6.5 percent of needs. This deficit is partially offset by above-average production of cowpeas and improved production of groundnuts, although pulses are an imperfect substitute for cereals, at best.

Overall, Nigeriens consume almost 80 percent of their calories in the form of cereals, so the poor cereals harvest means that Niger requires more imports than usual to satisfy the consumption requirement of the population. The government estimates that Niger will commercially import about 100,000 MT of millet and sorghum, 120,000 MT of maize, 90,000 MT of rice and 35,000 MT of wheat over the period of November 2000 to October 2001. These import estimates are about the same as last year.

The Ministry of Animal Resources has disclosed its estimate of fodder for livestock available until the start of the next rainy season in June. On balance, Niger has a shortfall of pasture and agricultural by-products of 1,827,841 MT to feed its national herd. The pastoral departments of Agadez and are the worst hit with shortfalls of 152,650 MT and 1,533,583 MT, respectively. Diffa Department has the largest herd and also the largest deficit in pasture production, although its average deficit per TLU (0.937 MT) is less than the average deficit per TLU in Agadez Department (1.218 MT). Nonetheless, herders in Agadez and Diffa will thus have a greater need than normal to migrate to Zinder, Maradi and Tahoua Departments that have surpluses.

As of November 20, Niger’s National Security Stock (SNS), still held approximately 12,047 MT of millet of its target level of 40,000 MT. The rice parastatal, Riz du Niger (RINI), held 564 MT of rice. The World Food Program held 6,895 MT of cereals, plus other foods.

Marketing of the 2000/01 harvest is underway. Informal traders carry out most cereal marketing in Niger so the volume of transactions is hard to estimate. However, transactions from the annual cereal exchange meeting conducted by the NGO Afrique Verte from November 16-17 indicated that this year there was much greater demand for cereals than available supply compared to 1999.

Data from the Cereal Market Information System (SIMC) for October show that cereal prices continued their seasonally normal downward slide in most markets compared to September prices. In 38 markets for which data were available for comparison, prices in 19 markets decreased by more than 5%, prices in 16 remained stable (± 5% change), and prices in 3 increased by more than 5%. 1. Food Availability

1.1. Cereal Harvest Outcome

As released last month by the Ministry of Rural Development (MDR), the provisional estimate of Niger’s gross cereal production for 2000/01 equals 2,248,070 MT, 19 percent less than that for 1999 and 3 percent below the 1995-1999 average.

All of Niger’s Departments experienced below-average production per capita (Table 1). As expected, the chronically deficit departments of Agadez and Diffa have the greatest percentage shortfall. Even the cereal producing departments of Maradi, Tahoua and Zinder posted large cereal production balance deficits (the difference between net production and consumption needs) compared to the average. The cereal balance deficit in Maradi Department (often considered the breadbasket of Niger) was approximately 64,500 MT in contrast to its average surplus of 29,000 MT.