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Niger Food Security Update: November 25, 2000

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Niger Food Security Update: November 25, 2000 Niger Food Security Update: November 25, 2000 Summary Niger’s Ministry of Rural Development (MDR) has released its estimate of gross production of rainfed millet and sorghum. After two consecutive good harvests in 1998 and 1999, Niger’s millet and sorghum harvest for 2000 was 19 percent below 1999 levels and 3 percent below the five-year average (1995-99). Based on the provisional estimates of rainfed and irrigated production as well as estimated net stocks and projected net imports, the national cereal balance for 2000/01 (November-October) shows a deficit of approximately 163,000 MT, equivalent to about 6.5 percent of needs. This deficit is partially offset by above-average production of cowpeas and improved production of groundnuts, although pulses are an imperfect substitute for cereals, at best. Overall, Nigeriens consume almost 80 percent of their calories in the form of cereals, so the poor cereals harvest means that Niger requires more imports than usual to satisfy the consumption requirement of the population. The government estimates that Niger will commercially import about 100,000 MT of millet and sorghum, 120,000 MT of maize, 90,000 MT of rice and 35,000 MT of wheat over the period of November 2000 to October 2001. These import estimates are about the same as last year. The Ministry of Animal Resources has disclosed its estimate of fodder for livestock available until the start of the next rainy season in June. On balance, Niger has a shortfall of pasture and agricultural by-products of 1,827,841 MT to feed its national herd. The pastoral departments of Agadez and Diffa are the worst hit with shortfalls of 152,650 MT and 1,533,583 MT, respectively. Diffa Department has the largest herd and also the largest deficit in pasture production, although its average deficit per TLU (0.937 MT) is less than the average deficit per TLU in Agadez Department (1.218 MT). Nonetheless, herders in Agadez and Diffa will thus have a greater need than normal to migrate to Zinder, Maradi and Tahoua Departments that have surpluses. As of November 20, Niger’s National Security Stock (SNS), still held approximately 12,047 MT of millet of its target level of 40,000 MT. The rice parastatal, Riz du Niger (RINI), held 564 MT of rice. The World Food Program held 6,895 MT of cereals, plus other foods. Marketing of the 2000/01 harvest is underway. Informal traders carry out most cereal marketing in Niger so the volume of transactions is hard to estimate. However, transactions from the annual cereal exchange meeting conducted by the NGO Afrique Verte from November 16-17 indicated that this year there was much greater demand for cereals than available supply compared to 1999. Data from the Cereal Market Information System (SIMC) for October show that cereal prices continued their seasonally normal downward slide in most markets compared to September prices. In 38 markets for which data were available for comparison, prices in 19 markets decreased by more than 5%, prices in 16 remained stable (± 5% change), and prices in 3 increased by more than 5%. 1. Food Availability 1.1. Cereal Harvest Outcome As released last month by the Ministry of Rural Development (MDR), the provisional estimate of Niger’s gross cereal production for 2000/01 equals 2,248,070 MT, 19 percent less than that for 1999 and 3 percent below the 1995-1999 average. All of Niger’s Departments experienced below-average production per capita (Table 1). As expected, the chronically deficit departments of Agadez and Diffa have the greatest percentage shortfall. Even the cereal producing departments of Maradi, Tahoua and Zinder posted large cereal production balance deficits (the difference between net production and consumption needs) compared to the average. The cereal balance deficit in Maradi Department (often considered the breadbasket of Niger) was approximately 64,500 MT in contrast to its average surplus of 29,000 MT. Thus, the structurally deficit departments of Agadez, Diffa and Tillabéry, which normally get their supply from Maradi and Zinder Departments, may have difficulties filling their production deficits. Production in northern Nigeria, which is a potential source of supply, is only average this year, resulting in higher prices there. Table 1. Department Level Net Cereal Production in 2000/01 and Cereal Production Balances Compared to Average Net Average 2000/01 Average Net 2000 Net Production Cereal Cereal Production Production 2000 vs. Balance Balance Department (Kg/Cap) (Kg/Cap) Avg. (% Diff) (MT) (MT) Agadez 3 0 -87 -66,383 -73,690 Diffa 128 74 -42 - 18,995 - 35,708 Dosso 217 206 -5 -29,997 -59,309 Maradi 251 211 -16 29,012 -64,565 Tahoua 240 206 -14 10,649 -64,852 Tillabéry 145 130 -10 -173,090 -262,288 Zinder 235 229 -2 12,132 -24,992 Niger 205 183 -10 -236,672 -585,405 Source: Ministry of Rural Development 1.2. Cash Crop Outcome The MDR has also released a provisional estimate of cowpeas and groundnut production at the national level of 420,000 MT and 155,000 MT, respectively. Cowpea production is about the same as production in 1999, and 13 percent higher than the five-year (1995-1999) average. Groundnut production is 49 percent higher than that in 1999 but 22 percent lower than the five- year average. Many farmers in Niger grow cash crops such as cowpeas, groundnuts, cotton and onions. The most important of these are cowpeas. On average, Nigerien farmers consume no more than a quarter of their crop at home with most of the rest sold and exported to Nigeria, Benin and Ghana. Traditionally, only a small proportion of the revenue from the sales of this cash crop is used to purchase cereals or seeds and thus to enhanced food security. Instead, cash crop revenues tends to pay for investments (in livestock and real estate) and for social functions (particularly weddings). This year, however, given the relatively poor production of millet and sorghum, cash crop revenue could certainly help to mitigate the coarse grain production shortfall. Figure 1 shows production of cowpea and groundnuts since 1995. Groundnut production increased compared to the relatively low levels from 1997 to 1999. Figure 1 : Cowpeas and Groundnuts Production in Niger, 1995-2000 900 800 Cowpeas 700 Groundnuts 600 500 400 300 Thousands of Metric Tons 200 100 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Ave 1995-99 FEWS NET/Niger Source: Ministry of Rural Development 1.3. Fodder Production Outcome The Ministry of Animal Resources has released its estimate of available fodder for livestock, from November until the start of the rainy season in June. As shown in Table 2, national fodder production (natural rangeland biomass plus agricultural residues other than cowpeas and groundnuts fans) falls short of needs by 1,827, 841 MT. The agricultural departments of Maradi, Zinder and Tahoua reported surpluses while the pastoral departments of Agadez, Tillabéry and Diffa reported significant deficits of 152,650 MT, 784,212 MT and 1,533,583 MT, respectively. Diffa Department has the largest herd and also the largest deficit in pasture production, although its average deficit per TLU (0.937 MT) is less than the average deficit per TLU in Agadez Department (1.218 MT). Nonetheless, herders in Agadez and Diffa will thus have a greater need than normal to migrate to Zinder, Maradi and Tahoua or to neighboring countries of Chad, Cameroon and Nigeria. The government of Niger has signed an accord with members of the Lake Chad Basin Commission, mainly Cameroon and Nigeria, to facilitate the circulation of animals. Most lakes and ponds were not filled to their capacity at the end of rainy season, leading to inefficient use of available grazing. This increases the need for the exhausting task of raising water from wells in the hot dry season, sometimes from water tables up to 60-80 meters deep. The government recommends the following measures to mitigate the fodder deficit: · Protect pasture by making firebreaks to protect pastures in the good production zones; · Carry out an early vaccination campaign to encourage herders in poor pasture zones to leave sooner on transhumance to better pasture zones; · Provide supplemental food 32,610 MT of (cotton seeds and wheat bran); · Drill and rehabilitate wells in the pastoral zone (at an estimated cost of 800 million CFA francs); and · Put in place a framework for consultations to prevent conflicts over scarce fodder and water resources in the different zones. It is not clear how these recommendations will be financed. Table 2. Livestock Forage Balance, 2000/01 (MT) Livestock Agricultural Total Population Forage Pasture Forage Available Surplus or (TLU) Needs Production Production Production Deficit Agadez 125,293 211,432 58,425 357 58,782 -152,650 Diffa 1,636,698 2,761,928 1,185,272 43,073 1,228,345 -1,533,583 Dosso 694,711 1,172,325 271,246 805,127 1,076,373 -95,952 Maradi 634,784 1,071,198 178,432 1,121,277 1,299,709 228,511 Tahoua 1,258,069 2,122,991 1,370,207 944,664 2,314,871 191,880 Tillabéry 1,069,563 1,804,888 170,236 850,440 1,020,676 -784,212 Niamey 37,147 63,150 0 11,920 11,920 -51,230 Zinder 1,293,230 2,182,326 1,353,237 1,198,484 2,551,721 369,395 Total 6, 749,495 11,390,238 4,587,055 4,975,342 9,562,397 -1,827,841 Source: Ministry of Animal Resources Note: TLU = Tropical Livestock Units, where 1 TLU = 1 camel, 1.43 cattle, 2 donkeys or 10 sheep and goats 1.4.
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