DELIVERING ADVANCED UNMANNED AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS AND FOR NAVAL SUPERIORITY THE CASE FOR ESTABLISHING A U.S. NAVY AUTONOMY PROJECT OFFICE

SHARIF H. CALFEE

DELIVERING ADVANCED UNMANNED AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE FOR NAVAL SUPERIORITY THE CASE FOR ESTABLISHING A U.S. NAVY AUTONOMY PROJECT OFFICE

SHARIF H. CALFEE

2021 ABOUT THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND BUDGETARY ASSESSMENTS (CSBA)

The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments is an independent, nonpartisan policy research institute established to promote innovative thinking and debate about national security strategy and investment options. CSBA’s analysis focuses on key questions related to existing and emerging threats to U.S. national security, and its goal is to enable policymakers to make informed decisions on matters of strategy, security policy, and resource allocation.

©2021 Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. All rights reserved. ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Sharif Calfee is the U.S. Navy Fellow to the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments as part of the Department of Defense Federal Executive Fellowship Program. Afloat, CAPT Calfee is currently serving as Commanding Officer, USS SHILOH (CG 67), homeported and forward deployed in Yokosuka, Japan. He also previously served as Commanding Officer, USS McCAMPBELL (DDG 85), also homeported in Yokosuka, Japan. He has previously served in six shipboard assign- ments across cruisers, destroyers and frigates. Ashore, he has served as the executive assistant to the Commander, Naval Surface Forces and as a Politico-Military Action Officer for counterter- rorism security assistance issues on The Joint Staff, J-5 Strategic Plans and Policy Directorate. He is the recipient of the Naval Postgraduate School’s (NPS) George Philips Academic Excellence Award, a graduate with distinction from the U.S. Naval War College Joint Professional Military Education program and a graduate of the Joint & Combined Warfighting School at the Joint Forces Staff College (JFSC) where he received the Transformation Writing Award (Fall 2010). He received a 2002-2003 U.S. Navy Space & Naval Warfare Systems Center, Pacific Fellowship for his artifi- cial intelligence research while at NPS in Monterey, CA. He has published articles and research on various military, national security and scientific topics to include in U.S. Naval Institute’s Proceedings, Joint Force Quarterly and Naval Engineers Journal.

CAPT Calfee holds an M.S. in Computer Science (Artificial Intelligence concentration) from the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, a Master’s in Public Policy from Princeton University, Princeton School of Public and International Affairs and a B.S. in Computer Science from the U.S. Naval Academy. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The author would like to thank the staff at CSBA for their support and efforts on this study. Additionally, he would like to thank all of the organizations and experts who participated in this study and offered exceptional feedback during the drafting, review, and editing process.

The analysis and findings presented here are solely the responsibility of the author and do not represent those of the Department of Defense (DoD) or the U.S. Navy. CSBA receives funding from a broad and diverse group of contributors, including private foundations, government agencies, and corporations. A complete list of these organizations can be found on our website at www.csbaon- line.org/about/contributors.

Cover Graphic: NAVAIRSYSCOM & Northrop Grumman X-47B UCAV; DARPA and the Office of Naval Research’s autonomous unmanned surface vehicle, Sea Hunter, underway for at-sea testing and operations; and Metron’s Remus 6000 UUV, developed for the U.S. Navy Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...... i CHAPTER 1: UNMANNED SYSTEMS RESEARCH STUDY ...... 1 CHAPTER 2: HYPER-FOCUS / STARVATION AMONG KEY UXS R&D LINES OF EFFORT...... 5 Mission Autonomy...... 6 Test & Evaluation...... 10 CHAPTER 3: