Towards Incremental Agent Enhancement for Evolving Games
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Artificial Intelligence in Health Care: the Hope, the Hype, the Promise, the Peril
Artificial Intelligence in Health Care: The Hope, the Hype, the Promise, the Peril Michael Matheny, Sonoo Thadaney Israni, Mahnoor Ahmed, and Danielle Whicher, Editors WASHINGTON, DC NAM.EDU PREPUBLICATION COPY - Uncorrected Proofs NATIONAL ACADEMY OF MEDICINE • 500 Fifth Street, NW • WASHINGTON, DC 20001 NOTICE: This publication has undergone peer review according to procedures established by the National Academy of Medicine (NAM). Publication by the NAM worthy of public attention, but does not constitute endorsement of conclusions and recommendationssignifies that it is the by productthe NAM. of The a carefully views presented considered in processthis publication and is a contributionare those of individual contributors and do not represent formal consensus positions of the authors’ organizations; the NAM; or the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data to Come Copyright 2019 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Suggested citation: Matheny, M., S. Thadaney Israni, M. Ahmed, and D. Whicher, Editors. 2019. Artificial Intelligence in Health Care: The Hope, the Hype, the Promise, the Peril. NAM Special Publication. Washington, DC: National Academy of Medicine. PREPUBLICATION COPY - Uncorrected Proofs “Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.” --GOETHE PREPUBLICATION COPY - Uncorrected Proofs ABOUT THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF MEDICINE The National Academy of Medicine is one of three Academies constituting the Nation- al Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (the National Academies). The Na- tional Academies provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. -
Artificial Intelligence: with Great Power Comes Great Responsibility
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: WITH GREAT POWER COMES GREAT RESPONSIBILITY JOINT HEARING BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY & SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED FIFTEENTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION JUNE 26, 2018 Serial No. 115–67 Printed for the use of the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology ( Available via the World Wide Web: http://science.house.gov U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE 30–877PDF WASHINGTON : 2018 COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY HON. LAMAR S. SMITH, Texas, Chair FRANK D. LUCAS, Oklahoma EDDIE BERNICE JOHNSON, Texas DANA ROHRABACHER, California ZOE LOFGREN, California MO BROOKS, Alabama DANIEL LIPINSKI, Illinois RANDY HULTGREN, Illinois SUZANNE BONAMICI, Oregon BILL POSEY, Florida AMI BERA, California THOMAS MASSIE, Kentucky ELIZABETH H. ESTY, Connecticut RANDY K. WEBER, Texas MARC A. VEASEY, Texas STEPHEN KNIGHT, California DONALD S. BEYER, JR., Virginia BRIAN BABIN, Texas JACKY ROSEN, Nevada BARBARA COMSTOCK, Virginia CONOR LAMB, Pennsylvania BARRY LOUDERMILK, Georgia JERRY MCNERNEY, California RALPH LEE ABRAHAM, Louisiana ED PERLMUTTER, Colorado GARY PALMER, Alabama PAUL TONKO, New York DANIEL WEBSTER, Florida BILL FOSTER, Illinois ANDY BIGGS, Arizona MARK TAKANO, California ROGER W. MARSHALL, Kansas COLLEEN HANABUSA, Hawaii NEAL P. DUNN, Florida CHARLIE CRIST, Florida CLAY HIGGINS, Louisiana RALPH NORMAN, South Carolina DEBBIE LESKO, Arizona SUBCOMMITTEE ON RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY HON. BARBARA COMSTOCK, Virginia, Chair FRANK D. LUCAS, Oklahoma DANIEL LIPINSKI, Illinois RANDY HULTGREN, Illinois ELIZABETH H. ESTY, Connecticut STEPHEN KNIGHT, California JACKY ROSEN, Nevada BARRY LOUDERMILK, Georgia SUZANNE BONAMICI, Oregon DANIEL WEBSTER, Florida AMI BERA, California ROGER W. MARSHALL, Kansas DONALD S. BEYER, JR., Virginia DEBBIE LESKO, Arizona EDDIE BERNICE JOHNSON, Texas LAMAR S. -
Reinforcement Learning (1) Key Concepts & Algorithms
Winter 2020 CSC 594 Topics in AI: Advanced Deep Learning 5. Deep Reinforcement Learning (1) Key Concepts & Algorithms (Most content adapted from OpenAI ‘Spinning Up’) 1 Noriko Tomuro Reinforcement Learning (RL) • Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a type of Machine Learning where an agent learns to achieve a goal by interacting with the environment -- trial and error. • RL is one of three basic machine learning paradigms, alongside supervised learning and unsupervised learning. • The purpose of RL is to learn an optimal policy that maximizes the return for the sequences of agent’s actions (i.e., optimal policy). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning 2 • RL have recently enjoyed a wide variety of successes, e.g. – Robot controlling in simulation as well as in the real world Strategy games such as • AlphaGO (by Google DeepMind) • Atari games https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning 3 Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) • A policy is essentially a function, which maps the agent’s each action to the expected return or reward. Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) uses deep neural networks for the function (and other components). https://spinningup.openai.com/en/latest/spinningup/rl_intro.html 4 5 Some Key Concepts and Terminology 1. States and Observations – A state s is a complete description of the state of the world. For now, we can think of states belonging in the environment. – An observation o is a partial description of a state, which may omit information. – A state could be fully or partially observable to the agent. If partial, the agent forms an internal state (or state estimation). https://spinningup.openai.com/en/latest/spinningup/rl_intro.html 6 • States and Observations (cont.) – In deep RL, we almost always represent states and observations by a real-valued vector, matrix, or higher-order tensor. -
Transfer Learning Between RTS Combat Scenarios Using Component-Action Deep Reinforcement Learning
Transfer Learning Between RTS Combat Scenarios Using Component-Action Deep Reinforcement Learning Richard Kelly and David Churchill Department of Computer Science Memorial University of Newfoundland St. John’s, NL, Canada [email protected], [email protected] Abstract an enormous financial investment in hardware for training, using over 80000 CPU cores to run simultaneous instances Real-time Strategy (RTS) games provide a challenging en- of StarCraft II, 1200 Tensor Processor Units (TPUs) to train vironment for AI research, due to their large state and ac- the networks, as well as a large amount of infrastructure and tion spaces, hidden information, and real-time gameplay. Star- Craft II has become a new test-bed for deep reinforcement electricity to drive this large-scale computation. While Al- learning systems using the StarCraft II Learning Environment phaStar is estimated to be the strongest existing RTS AI agent (SC2LE). Recently the full game of StarCraft II has been ap- and was capable of beating many players at the Grandmas- proached with a complex multi-agent reinforcement learning ter rank on the StarCraft II ladder, it does not yet play at the (RL) system, however this is currently only possible with ex- level of the world’s best human players (e.g. in a tournament tremely large financial investments out of the reach of most setting). The creation of AlphaStar demonstrated that using researchers. In this paper we show progress on using varia- deep learning to tackle RTS AI is a powerful solution, how- tions of easier to use RL techniques, modified to accommo- ever applying it to the entire game as a whole is not an eco- date actions with multiple components used in the SC2LE. -
OLIVAW: Mastering Othello with Neither Humans Nor a Penny Antonio Norelli, Alessandro Panconesi Dept
1 OLIVAW: Mastering Othello with neither Humans nor a Penny Antonio Norelli, Alessandro Panconesi Dept. of Computer Science, Universita` La Sapienza, Rome, Italy Abstract—We introduce OLIVAW, an AI Othello player adopt- of companies. Another aspect of the same problem is the ing the design principles of the famous AlphaGo series. The main amount of training needed. AlphaGo Zero required 4.9 million motivation behind OLIVAW was to attain exceptional competence games played during self-play. While to attain the level of in a non-trivial board game at a tiny fraction of the cost of its illustrious predecessors. In this paper, we show how the grandmaster for games like Starcraft II and Dota 2 the training AlphaGo Zero’s paradigm can be successfully applied to the required 200 years and more than 10,000 years of gameplay, popular game of Othello using only commodity hardware and respectively [7], [8]. free cloud services. While being simpler than Chess or Go, Thus one of the major problems to emerge in the wake Othello maintains a considerable search space and difficulty of these breakthroughs is whether comparable results can be in evaluating board positions. To achieve this result, OLIVAW implements some improvements inspired by recent works to attained at a much lower cost– computational and financial– accelerate the standard AlphaGo Zero learning process. The and with just commodity hardware. In this paper we take main modification implies doubling the positions collected per a small step in this direction, by showing that AlphaGo game during the training phase, by including also positions not Zero’s successful paradigm can be replicated for the game played but largely explored by the agent. -
DEEP LEARNING TECHNOLOGIES for AI Considérations
DEEP LEARNING TECHNOLOGIES FOR AI Marc Duranton CEA Tech (Leti and List) Considérations énergétiques de l’IA et perspectives Marc Duranton CEA Fellow 22 Septembre 2020 Séminaire INS2I- Systèmes et architectures intégrées matériel-logiciel pour l’intelligence artificielle KEY ELEMENTS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE “…as soon as it works, no one calls it AI anymore.” “AI is whatever hasn't been done yet” John McCarthy, AI D. Hofstadter (1980) who coined the term “Artificial Intelligence” in 1956 Traditional AI, Analysis of Optimization of energy symbolic, “big data” in datacenters algorithms Data rules… analytics “Classical” approaches ML-based AI: Our focus today: to reduce energy consumption Bayesian, … - Considerations on state of the art systems Deep (learninG + inference) Learning* - Edge computing ( inference, federated learning, * Reinforcement Learning, One-shot Learning, Generative Adversarial Networks, etc… neuromorphic) From Greg. S. Corrado, Google brain team co-founder: – “Traditional AI systems are programmed to be clever – Modern ML-based AI systems learn to be clever. | 2 CONTEXT AND HISTORY: STATE-OF-THE-ART SYSTEMS 2012: DEEP NEURAL NETWORKS RISE AGAIN They give the state-of-the-art performance e.g. in image classification • ImageNet classification (Hinton’s team, hired by Google) • 14,197,122 images, 1,000 different classes • Top-5 17% error rate (huge improvement) in 2012 (now ~ 3.5%) “Supervision” network Year: 2012 650,000 neurons 60,000,000 parameters 630,000,000 synapses • Facebook’s ‘DeepFace’ Program (labs headed by Y. LeCun) • 4.4 millionThe images, 2018 Turing4,030 identities Award recipients are Google VP Geoffrey Hinton, • 97.35% accuracy,Facebook's vs.Yann 97.53% LeCun humanand performanceYoshua Bengio, Scientific Director of AI research center Mila. -
Understanding & Generalizing Alphago Zero
Under review as a conference paper at ICLR 2019 UNDERSTANDING &GENERALIZING ALPHAGO ZERO Anonymous authors Paper under double-blind review ABSTRACT AlphaGo Zero (AGZ) (Silver et al., 2017b) introduced a new tabula rasa rein- forcement learning algorithm that has achieved superhuman performance in the games of Go, Chess, and Shogi with no prior knowledge other than the rules of the game. This success naturally begs the question whether it is possible to develop similar high-performance reinforcement learning algorithms for generic sequential decision-making problems (beyond two-player games), using only the constraints of the environment as the “rules.” To address this challenge, we start by taking steps towards developing a formal understanding of AGZ. AGZ includes two key innovations: (1) it learns a policy (represented as a neural network) using super- vised learning with cross-entropy loss from samples generated via Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS); (2) it uses self-play to learn without training data. We argue that the self-play in AGZ corresponds to learning a Nash equilibrium for the two-player game; and the supervised learning with MCTS is attempting to learn the policy corresponding to the Nash equilibrium, by establishing a novel bound on the difference between the expected return achieved by two policies in terms of the expected KL divergence (cross-entropy) of their induced distributions. To extend AGZ to generic sequential decision-making problems, we introduce a robust MDP framework, in which the agent and nature effectively play a zero-sum game: the agent aims to take actions to maximize reward while nature seeks state transitions, subject to the constraints of that environment, that minimize the agent’s reward. -
Alphastar: an Evolutionary Computation Perspective GECCO ’19 Companion, July 13–17, 2019, Prague, Czech Republic
AlphaStar: An Evolutionary Computation Perspective Kai Arulkumaran Antoine Cully Julian Togelius Imperial College London Imperial College London New York University London, United Kingdom London, United Kingdom New York City, NY, United States [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] ABSTRACT beat a grandmaster at StarCraft (SC), a real-time strategy game. In January 2019, DeepMind revealed AlphaStar to the world—the Both the original game, and its sequel SC II, have several prop- first artificial intelligence (AI) system to beat a professional player erties that make it considerably more challenging than even Go: at the game of StarCraft II—representing a milestone in the progress real-time play, partial observability, no single dominant strategy, of AI. AlphaStar draws on many areas of AI research, including complex rules that make it hard to build a fast forward model, and deep learning, reinforcement learning, game theory, and evolution- a particularly large and varied action space. ary computation (EC). In this paper we analyze AlphaStar primar- DeepMind recently took a considerable step towards this grand ily through the lens of EC, presenting a new look at the system and challenge with AlphaStar, a neural-network-based AI system that relating it to many concepts in the field. We highlight some of its was able to beat a professional SC II player in December 2018 [20]. most interesting aspects—the use of Lamarckian evolution, com- This system, like its predecessor AlphaGo, was initially trained us- petitive co-evolution, and quality diversity. In doing so, we hope ing imitation learning to mimic human play, and then improved to provide a bridge between the wider EC community and one of through a combination of reinforcement learning (RL) and self- the most significant AI systems developed in recent times. -
Efficiently Mastering the Game of Nogo with Deep Reinforcement
electronics Article Efficiently Mastering the Game of NoGo with Deep Reinforcement Learning Supported by Domain Knowledge Yifan Gao 1,*,† and Lezhou Wu 2,† 1 College of Medicine and Biological Information Engineering, Northeastern University, Liaoning 110819, China 2 College of Information Science and Engineering, Northeastern University, Liaoning 110819, China; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] † These authors contributed equally to this work. Abstract: Computer games have been regarded as an important field of artificial intelligence (AI) for a long time. The AlphaZero structure has been successful in the game of Go, beating the top professional human players and becoming the baseline method in computer games. However, the AlphaZero training process requires tremendous computing resources, imposing additional difficulties for the AlphaZero-based AI. In this paper, we propose NoGoZero+ to improve the AlphaZero process and apply it to a game similar to Go, NoGo. NoGoZero+ employs several innovative features to improve training speed and performance, and most improvement strategies can be transferred to other nonspecific areas. This paper compares it with the original AlphaZero process, and results show that NoGoZero+ increases the training speed to about six times that of the original AlphaZero process. Moreover, in the experiment, our agent beat the original AlphaZero agent with a score of 81:19 after only being trained by 20,000 self-play games’ data (small in quantity compared with Citation: Gao, Y.; Wu, L. Efficiently 120,000 self-play games’ data consumed by the original AlphaZero). The NoGo game program based Mastering the Game of NoGo with on NoGoZero+ was the runner-up in the 2020 China Computer Game Championship (CCGC) with Deep Reinforcement Learning limited resources, defeating many AlphaZero-based programs. -
Long-Term Planning and Situational Awareness in Openai Five
Long-Term Planning and Situational Awareness in OpenAI Five Jonathan Raiman∗ Susan Zhang∗ Filip Wolski Dali OpenAI OpenAI [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Abstract Understanding how knowledge about the world is represented within model-free deep reinforcement learning methods is a major challenge given the black box nature of its learning process within high-dimensional observation and action spaces. AlphaStar and OpenAI Five have shown that agents can be trained without any explicit hierarchical macro-actions to reach superhuman skill in games that require taking thousands of actions before reaching the final goal. Assessing the agent’s plans and game understanding becomes challenging given the lack of hierarchy or explicit representations of macro-actions in these models, coupled with the incomprehensible nature of the internal representations. In this paper, we study the distributed representations learned by OpenAI Five to investigate how game knowledge is gradually obtained over the course of training. We also introduce a general technique for learning a model from the agent’s hidden states to identify the formation of plans and subgoals. We show that the agent can learn situational similarity across actions, and find evidence of planning towards accomplishing subgoals minutes before they are executed. We perform a qualitative analysis of these predictions during the games against the DotA 2 world champions OG in April 2019. 1 Introduction The choice of action and plan representation has dramatic consequences on the ability for an agent to explore, learn, or generalize when trying to accomplish a task. Inspired by how humans methodically organize and plan for long-term goals, Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning (HRL) methods were developed in an effort to augment the set of actions available to the agent to include temporally extended multi-action subroutines. -
AI Chips: What They Are and Why They Matter
APRIL 2020 AI Chips: What They Are and Why They Matter An AI Chips Reference AUTHORS Saif M. Khan Alexander Mann Table of Contents Introduction and Summary 3 The Laws of Chip Innovation 7 Transistor Shrinkage: Moore’s Law 7 Efficiency and Speed Improvements 8 Increasing Transistor Density Unlocks Improved Designs for Efficiency and Speed 9 Transistor Design is Reaching Fundamental Size Limits 10 The Slowing of Moore’s Law and the Decline of General-Purpose Chips 10 The Economies of Scale of General-Purpose Chips 10 Costs are Increasing Faster than the Semiconductor Market 11 The Semiconductor Industry’s Growth Rate is Unlikely to Increase 14 Chip Improvements as Moore’s Law Slows 15 Transistor Improvements Continue, but are Slowing 16 Improved Transistor Density Enables Specialization 18 The AI Chip Zoo 19 AI Chip Types 20 AI Chip Benchmarks 22 The Value of State-of-the-Art AI Chips 23 The Efficiency of State-of-the-Art AI Chips Translates into Cost-Effectiveness 23 Compute-Intensive AI Algorithms are Bottlenecked by Chip Costs and Speed 26 U.S. and Chinese AI Chips and Implications for National Competitiveness 27 Appendix A: Basics of Semiconductors and Chips 31 Appendix B: How AI Chips Work 33 Parallel Computing 33 Low-Precision Computing 34 Memory Optimization 35 Domain-Specific Languages 36 Appendix C: AI Chip Benchmarking Studies 37 Appendix D: Chip Economics Model 39 Chip Transistor Density, Design Costs, and Energy Costs 40 Foundry, Assembly, Test and Packaging Costs 41 Acknowledgments 44 Center for Security and Emerging Technology | 2 Introduction and Summary Artificial intelligence will play an important role in national and international security in the years to come. -
ELF Opengo: an Analysis and Open Reimplementation of Alphazero
ELF OpenGo: An Analysis and Open Reimplementation of AlphaZero Yuandong Tian 1 Jerry Ma * 1 Qucheng Gong * 1 Shubho Sengupta * 1 Zhuoyuan Chen 1 James Pinkerton 1 C. Lawrence Zitnick 1 Abstract However, these advances in playing ability come at signifi- The AlphaGo, AlphaGo Zero, and AlphaZero cant computational expense. A single training run requires series of algorithms are remarkable demonstra- millions of selfplay games and days of training on thousands tions of deep reinforcement learning’s capabili- of TPUs, which is an unattainable level of compute for the ties, achieving superhuman performance in the majority of the research community. When combined with complex game of Go with progressively increas- the unavailability of code and models, the result is that the ing autonomy. However, many obstacles remain approach is very difficult, if not impossible, to reproduce, in the understanding of and usability of these study, improve upon, and extend. promising approaches by the research commu- In this paper, we propose ELF OpenGo, an open-source nity. Toward elucidating unresolved mysteries reimplementation of the AlphaZero (Silver et al., 2018) and facilitating future research, we propose ELF algorithm for the game of Go. We then apply ELF OpenGo OpenGo, an open-source reimplementation of the toward the following three additional contributions. AlphaZero algorithm. ELF OpenGo is the first open-source Go AI to convincingly demonstrate First, we train a superhuman model for ELF OpenGo. Af- superhuman performance with a perfect (20:0) ter running our AlphaZero-style training software on 2,000 record against global top professionals. We ap- GPUs for 9 days, our 20-block model has achieved super- ply ELF OpenGo to conduct extensive ablation human performance that is arguably comparable to the 20- studies, and to identify and analyze numerous in- block models described in Silver et al.(2017) and Silver teresting phenomena in both the model training et al.(2018).