: India and Pakistan –2001-2002 Disclaimer Contact the Geospatial Technologies Project geotech © Copyright 2015 Geospatial Technologies Project Program Associate Acknowledgement Introduction** ! Perhaps!no!international!border!is!as!fraught!with!as!much!ongoing!conflict!as!the!one! separating!India!and!Pakistan.!Even!the!demilitarized!zone!separating!the!Koreas,!often!cited!as! the!archetypical!example!of!crossAborder!acrimony,!has!been!essentially!static!for!over!sixty! years.!During!a!comparable!period!of!time,!tensions!along!the!border!between!India!and! Pakistan!have!erupted!into!fullAscale!war!on!four!separate!occasions,!in!1947,!1965,!1971,!and! 1999.!On!13!December!2001,!this!already!tense!situation!was!significantly!exacerbated!when! gunmen!linked!to!the!Pakistani!militant!group!LashkarAeATaiba!attempted!to!storm!the!Indian! parliament!following!a!joint!session!of!the!legislature,!killing!five!guards,!two!employees,!and! directly!threatening!the!integrity!of!the!Indian!government.1,2! ! Incensed!by!the!attack,!the!response!of!India’s!political!leadership!–many!of!whom!had!been! present!in!the!building!at!the!time–!was!swift!and!unequivocal.!Within!days,!India!called!for!a! general!mobilization,!and!three!armored!divisions!and!over!a!half!million!troops!were!began! establishing!positions!along!the!Pakistani!border.3,4!In!the!words!of!Indian!National!Security! Advisor!Brajesh!Mishra,!“in!January…we!were!on!the!point!of!launching!a!fullAscale!war.”!A! senior!Indian!army!officer!in!the!Punjab!echoed!these!sentiments!saying!“By!the!6th,!we!were! one!hundred!percent!prepared.”5!Pakistan!responded!to!India’s!actions!by!placing!its!military! on!high!alert,!mobilizing!over!300,000!troops,!and!redeploying!two!Army!corps!from!the!Afghan! border!to!the!line!of!control!separating!the!Indian!and!PakistaniAcontrolled!areas!of!Kashmir.4! ! A!brief!lull!ensued!following!an!address!by!Pakistani!leader!Pervez!Musharraf!on!12!January! 2002.!Tensions!escalated!yet!again,!however,!following!an!incident!on!14!May!2002!in!which! extremists!dressed!in!army!uniforms!attacked!a!bus!and!stormed!the!family!quarters!of!an! Indian!Army!encampment!in!Kaluchak,!killing!thirty!one,!including!ten!children!and!a!twoA monthAold!girl.6!Following!the!attack,!contemporary!sources!recounted!that!the!atmosphere! was!even!more!conducive!to!war!than!it!had!been!in!January,!with!crossAborder!shelling!and! blackout!exercises!continuing!throughout!the!region!for!the!remainder!of!the!month!and!into! June.5!Following!diplomatic!initiatives!by!Russia!and!the!United!States,!the!situation!gradually!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1!The!New!York!Times.!“Suicide!Raid!in!New!Delhi;!Attackers!Among!12!Dead.”!14!December!2001! http://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/14/world/suicideAraidAinAnewAdelhiAattackersAamongA12Adead.html!accessed! on!2!March!2,!2015.! 2!The!New!York!Times.!“Group!in!Pakistan!is!Blamed!by!India!for!Suicide!Raid”!15!December!2001! http://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/15/world/groupAinApakistanAisAblamedAbyAindiaAforAsuicideAraid.html#!accessed! on!2!March!2015.! 3!P.!Nayak!and!M.!Krepon,!“US!Crisis!Management!in!South!Asia’s!Twin!Peaks!Crisis”!(Stimson!Center,!Washington,! DC)!http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/researchApdfs/USCrisisManagement.pdf!accessed!on!2!March!2015! 4!GlobalSecurity.org!“2002!–!Kashmir!Crisis”!7!November!2011! http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/kashmirA2002.htm!accessed!on!2!March!2015.! 5!A.!Stolar,!“To!the!Brink:!Indian!DecisionAMaking!and!the!2001A2002!Standoff”!(Report!No.!68,!Stimson!Center,! Washington,!DC,!2008)!http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/researchApdfs/To_the_Brink.pdf! 6!The!Guardian.!“Kaluchak!keeps!the!flag!of!vengeance!flying.”!7!June!2002! http://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/jun/08/pakistan.india1!accessed!on!2!March!2015.!
! 1! deAescalated!throughout!the!summer!and!autumn!of!2002,!culminating!with!a!ceaseAfire! agreement!signed!by!both!parties!in!November!2003.! ! Although!the!2001/2002!standoff!ended!without!escalating!into!allAout!war,!it!was!the!most! serious!of!the!India/Pakistan!disputes!that!have!taken!place!since!the!widespread!availability!of! satellite!imagery,!and!the!preparations!of!both!militaries!went!all!the!way!to!the!brink.!These! mobilizations!are!instructive,!because!both!Indian!and!Pakistani!political!leaders!admit!that!war! between!the!two!countries!was!a!very!real!possibility!in!the!first!half!of!2002,!and!as!such!they! are!likely!identical!to!what!would!have!taken!place!in!the!event!of!an!outright!conflict,!merely! stopping!short!of!execution.!Furthermore,!as!demonstrated!by!the!2008!Mumbai!attacks!and! subsequent!standoff!at!the!border,!there!is!no!guarantee!that!similar!events!will!not!happen!in! the!future,!or!that!they!will!be!successfully!handled!through!diplomatic!means.!For!these! reasons,!the!events!of!2001A2002!have!much!to!teach!us!about!the!nature!of!conflict!in!this! volatile!region.! ! Data*and*Methods* ! The!timeframe!of!the!events!in!question,!coming!so!shortly!after!the!1999*launch!of!IKONOS,! the!first!highAresolution!commercial!imaging!satellite,!makes!the!study!of!this!conflict! challenging!compared!to!more!recent!disputes!that!benefit!from!a!mature!imagery! environment.!There!are!several!reasons!for!this.!First,!in!order!to!accurately!gauge!the!effects! of!mobilization,!it!is!preferable!to!obtain!multitemporal!(i.e.,!“before!and!after”)!imagery,!which! requires!that!two!or!more!imaging!passes!have!taken!place!over!a!given!area!–!a!condition!that! is!less!likely!to!be!fulfilled!early!in!a!spacecraft’s!lifetime.!Second,!as!the!earliest!highAresolution! commercial!imaging!satellite,!the!capabilities!of!IKONOS!are!less!advanced!than!its!more!recent! contemporaries.!This!effect!is!particularly!noticeable!when!comparing!resolution;!the!80A centimeter!coverage!of!IKONOS!is!noticeably!coarser!than!that!of!more!recent!sensors,! particularly!when!looking!at!small!targets!such!as!tanks!or!artillery!pieces.! ! Despite!these!challenges,!an!initial!survey!of!the!border!area!identified!twentyAsix!sites!that! were!evaluated!as!favorable!candidates!for!exhibiting!signs!of!the!reported!buildup.!These!sites! included!army!bases!and!cantonments!in!both!India!and!Pakistan,!as!well!as!airbases,!and! military!facilities!along!the!border.!In!most!cases,!multitemporal!coverage!from!both!before!and! after!the!standoff!was!available,!enabling!the!most!accurate!possible!assessment!of!the!state!of! affairs.!However,!several!areas!were!also!included!despite!the!availability!of!only!a!single!image,! due!to!their!potential!strategic!significance.!A!listing!of!these!locations!and!the!associated! imagery!is!shown!in!Table!1.7!Of!the!ten!army!and!air!force!bases!in!northwest!India!imaged!in! this!study,!three!were!located!in!Punjab,!one!in!Haryana,!one!in!Uttar!Pradesh,!and!two!in!the! disputed!territory!of!Jammu!and!Kashmir.!!In!Pakistan,!all!military!installations!were!located! within!that!country’s!Punjab!province.!A!map!showing!the!locations!of!these!bases!is!shown!in! Figure!1.! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 7!Scramble.nl!“Armed!Forces!Overviews:!India”!http://www.scramble.nl/orbats/india/overview!accessed!on!2! March!2015!
! 2! India*1*Army* ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Facility* Date* Sensor* Image*ID* Units*Stationed*
XIV!Corps!HQ,!3rd! Leh!Cantonment! 2002/01/24! IKONOS! 20020124054229600000116012992000012688306THC! Inf.!Div.!
Chandimandir! Western!Command! 2002/03/06! IKONOS! 20020306053806700000116077032000013278002THC! Cantonment! HQ!
Patiala!Cantonment! 2001/04/11! IKONOS! 20010411054317700000116186592000008506901THC! 1st!Armoured!Div.!
Patiala!Cantonment! 2002/01/24! IKONOS! 20020124054311400000116013012000012688409THC! 1st!Armoured!Div.!
Jalandhar!Cantonment! 2001/04/22! IKONOS! 20010422054416400000116275322000008627400THC! XI!Corps!HQ!
Jalandhar!Cantonment! 2002/07/16! IKONOS! 20020716054840900000116065542000015209700THC! XI!Corps!HQ!
Amritsar!Cantonment! 2001/09/06! IKONOS! 20010906054003500000116092632000010797600THC! 15th!Inf.!Div.!
Amritsar!Cantonment! 2002/04/22! IKONOS! 20020422055025300000116207002000013968502THC! 15th!Inf.!Div.!
II!Corps!HQ,!40th! Ambala!Cantonment! 2001/04/08! IKONOS! 20010408053407900000116162792000008459700THC! Artillery!Div.!
II!Corps!HQ,!40th! Ambala!Cantonment! 2002/01/21! IKONOS! 20020121053428700000116309942000012660004THC! Artillery!Div.!
Siachen!Glacier! 2002/03/20! IKONOS! 20020320054640100000116214902000013475909THC! Rotating!
! ! ! ! !
! ! ! ! !
! 3! India*1*Air*Force* ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Facility* Date* Sensor* Image*ID* Units*Stationed*
Amritsar!Air!Force! No.!1!Forward!Base! 2002/04/22! IKONOS! 20020422055025300000116207002000013968502THC! Station! Support!Unit!
12!Wing,!No.!25,!48! Chandigarh!Air!Force! 2001/04/08! IKONOS! 20010408053343400000116162872000008439100THC! Sqn.,!No.!126HF,! Station! IAF!
12!Wing,!No.!25,!48! Chandigarh!Air!Force! 2002/03/06! IKONOS! 20020306053806700000116077032000013278002THC! Sqn.,!No.!126HF,! Station! IAF!
Halwara!Air!Force! 34!Wing,!No.!22,! 2000/11/19! IKONOS! 20001119052752400000116310382000006522700THC! Station! 31,!220!Sqn.!IAF!
Halwara!Air!Force! 34!Wing,!No.!22,! 2002/10/01! IKONOS! 20021001055445300000116196202000016395903THC! Station! 31,!220!Sqn.!IAF!
Sarsawa!Air!Force! 2002/07/16! IKONOS! 20020716054908800000116058792000015209803THC! No.!30!Wing!IAF! Station!
7!Wing,!No.!3,!5,!14! Ambala! 2001/04/08! IKONOS! 20010408053407900000116162792000008459700THC! Sqn.!IAF!
7!Wing,!No.!3,!5,!14! Ambala! 2002/01/21! IKONOS! 20020121053428700000116309942000012660004THC! Sqn.!IAF!
! ! ! ! !
! ! ! ! !
! 4! Pakistan*1*Army* ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Facility* Date* Sensor* Image*ID* Units*Stationed*
I!Corps!HQ;!19th! Mangla!Cantonment! 2001/09/15! IKONOS! 20010915060618800000116161402000010899907THC! Inf.!Div.!
I!Corps!HQ;!19th! Mangla!Cantonment! 2002/01/30! IKONOS! 20020130055952000000116067652000012771813THC! Inf.!Div.!
II!Corps!HQ;!Ist! Multan!Cantonment! 2001/09/01! IKONOS! 2001090105580280000011605333! Armoured!Div.!
II!Corps!HQ;!Ist! Multan!Cantonment! 2002/09/26! IKONOS! 20020926061221400000116140722000016312801THC! Armoured!Div.!
XXX!Corps!HQ;!6th! Armoured!Div.;!2nd! Rahwali!Cantonment! 2001/11/11! IKONOS! 20011111054510900000116243952000011721120THC! Artillery!Div.;!No!4.! Army!Aviation!Sqn.! XXX!Corps!HQ;!6th! Armoured!Div.;!2nd! Rahwali!Cantonment! 2002/09/01! IKONOS! 20020901060110000000116201272000015919304THC! Artillery!Div.;!No!4.! Army!Aviation!Sqn.!
Murree!Cantonment! 2000/03/23! IKONOS! 20000323053546100000116011842000002769904THC! 12!Inf.!Div.!HQ!
Murree!Cantonment! 2002/10/07! IKONOS! 20021007061153300000116263062000016487004THC! 12!Inf.!Div.!HQ!
Jhelum!Cantonment! 2000/12/20! IKONOS! 20001220055646700000116245112000006933415THC! 23!Inf.!Div.!HQ!
Jhelum!Cantonment! 2002/01/27! IKONOS! 20020127055143500000116038322000012744017THC! 23!Inf.!Div.!HQ!
17th,!37th!Inf.!Div.;! Kharian!Cantonment! 2002/01/11! IKONOS! 2002011106075820000011621214! 8th!Armoured!Brig.!
! ! ! ! !
! ! ! ! !
! 5! Pakistan*1*Air*Force* ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Facility* Date* Sensor* Image*ID* Units*Stationed*
No.!34!Fighter! PAF!Base!Rafiqui! 2002/02/21! IKONOS! 20020221060351100000116280362000013095602THC! Wing!
No.!34!Fighter! PAF!Base!Rafiqui! 2002/03/04! IKONOS! 20020304060523200000116057982000013231002THC! Wing!
No.!33! PAF!Base!Minhas! 2001/10/15! IKONOS! 2001101506000740000011605104! (Fighter/MultiA Role)!Wing!
No.!33! PAF!Base!Minhas! 2002/02/10! IKONOS! 20020210060107000000116171612000012939502THC! (Fighter/MultiA Role)!Wing!
No.!35!(Composite! PAF!Base!Nur!Khan! 2000/06/27! IKONOS! 20000627053845900000108157492000004467601THC! Air!Transport)!Wing!
No.!35!(Composite! PAF!Base!Chaklala! 2002/01/19! IKONOS! 20020119060043500000116289382000012622806THC! Air!Transport)!Wing!
No.!35!(Composite! PAF!Base!Chaklala! 2002/06/11! IKONOS! 20020611061203000000116034332000014683106THC! Air!Transport)!Wing!
! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Front*Lines* ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Location* Date* Sensor* Image*ID* *
31.49338021,! 2002/05/25! IKONOS! 20020525055330200000116201852000014438402THC! 74.62031681! !
31.249825,!74.514025! 2002/06/05! IKONOS! 20020605055425200000116306162000014598500THC! !
31.74835,!74.5137! 2002/06/05! IKONOS! 20020605055425200000116306162000014598504THC! !
32.70660442,! 2001/11/25! IKONOS! 2001112505543890000011605201! 74.62849457! ! 32.74420158,! 2002/08/07! IKONOS! 2002080705495820000011628208! 74.63617113! ! ! ! ! !
! 6! Figure!1:!Military!Bases!Examined!in!this!Study!
! ! Results! ! ! Analysis!of!the!imagery!revealed!a!number!of!phenomena!consistent!with!largeAscale!military! mobilization,!including!the!construction!of!perimeter!defenses!around!military!installations,!the! erection!of!surfaceAtoAair!missile!batteries!and!the!redeployment!of!groundAbased!forces.!The! extent!and!nature!of!these!observations!are!discussed!below,!and!are!illustrated!in!figures!2! through!14.!! ! Indian!Air!Force!(IAF)!Stations! ! Ambala!AFS! ! Home!to!the!number!3,!5,!and!14!squadrons!of!the!IAF’s!7th!wing,!this!installation!is!located!due! east!of!Ambala!City!in!Haryana!State,!approximately!two!hundred!kilometers!north!of!New! Delhi,!and!occupies!approximately!half!the!area!of!a!base!that!is!shared!with!the!Indian!Army.!In!
! 7! an!apparent!defensive!measure,!the!majority!of!its!aircraft!hangars!are!dispersed,!and!many!of! them!show!signs!of!being!hardened!against!attack!(e.g.,!earthen!berms!surrounding!the!aprons! and!access!ramps).!Perhaps!not!coincidentally,!attempts!to!document!any!changes!in!the! number!of!type!of!aircraft!present!at!this!base!were!largely!unsuccessful;!only!a!single!MiGA21! was!visible!in!the!“before”!image!acquired!in!April!2001,!while!in!January!2002,!as!the!crisis! escalated,!just!one!SEPECAT!Jaguar!was!apparent!(Figure!2).!Due!to!the!number!of!covered! hangars,!it!is!possible,!if!not!probable,!that!the!actual!number!of!aircraft!was!higher.! ! Figure!2:!Aircraft!and!dispersed!hangars!at!Ambala!AFS,!India
Images DigitalGlobe|Analysis AAAS. Coordinates: 30.39 N, 76.80 E.
! ! Amritsar!AFS! ! Of!all!IAF!facilities!surveyed,!Amritsar!Air!Force!Station!is!located!closest!to!the!Pakistani!border! by!a!considerable!margin.!CoAlocated!with!Sri!Guru!Ram!Dass!Jee!International!Airport,!the!base! hosts!the!No.!1!forward!base!support!unit!(FBSU).!Unlike!a!fullAfledged!airbase,!however,!FBSUs!
! 8! do!not!host!any!aircraft!on!a!permanent!basis;!rather!they!maintain!the!logistics!equipment! necessary!to!support!such!aircraft!if!needed,!acting!as!transit!airbases!under!normal!conditions,! and!maintaining!the!capability!to!become!fully!operational!airbases!in!times!of!war.8!Given!the! extremely!tense!atmosphere!that!prevailed!along!the!IndiaAPakistan!border!in!the!spring!of! 2002,!it!was!considered!possible!that!this!FBSU!may!have!been!placed!on!a!wartime!footing.! Consequently,!an!image!of!it!was!acquired.!Although!a!large!number!of!logistics!vehicles!was! noted!in!the!military!area!of!the!airfield,!no!military!combat!or!transport!aircraft!were!visible!in! the!image!–!a!state!of!affairs!that!is!consistent!with!peacetime!operations,!as!viewed!on!Google! Earth.!These!observations!suggest!that!the!FBSU!was!not!on!a!full!wartime!footing!at!the!time.! However,!this!conclusion!cannot!be!considered!definitive!due!to!the!extensive!use!of!covered! aircraft!shelters,!as!observed!at!Ambala!AFS.! ! Chandigarh!AFS! ! Located!southeast!of!the!city!of!the!same!name,!Chandigarh!Air!Force!Station!is!a!major!base! hosting!number!25!and!number!48!squadrons!of!the!IAF’s!12th!wing,!as!well!as!the!126th! helicopter!formation.!In!imagery!acquired!both!prior!to!and!during!the!crisis,!large!numbers!of! airlift!and!logistics!aircraft!were!visible,!including!ILA76!heavy!transports,!AnA32!medium! transports,!and!MiA26!heavy!transport!helicopters.!Between!April!2001!and!March!2002,!nearly! all!of!these!aircraft!changed!position,!indicating!the!likelihood!that!most!were!in!operational! condition,!although!the!long!duration!between!images!makes!any!assessment!of!recent! operational!deployments!impossible.!Furthermore,!the!numbers!of!each!aircraft!type!were! largely!consistent!between!images,!an!observation!which!suggests!that!the!vehicles!were!based! at!Chandigarh,!and!were!not!redeployed!in!response!to!the!crisis.!An!image!of!the!Chandigarh! flightline!is!shown!in!Figure!3.! ! Figure!3:!The!flightline!at!Chandigarh!AFS,!India,!with!transport!aircraft!visible
Image DigitalGlobe|Analysis AAAS. Coordinates: 30.68 N, 76.79 E. ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 8!The!Hundu.!“Fighter!aircraft!for!capital!station”!24!September!2014!http://www.thehindu.com/todaysApaper/tpA national/tpAkerala/fighterAaircraftAforAcapitalAstation/article6440391.ece!accessed!on!2!March!2015.!
! 9! ! Halwara!AFS! ! The!base!of!the!number!22,!31,!and!220!Squadrons!of!the!IAF’s!34th!wing,!Halwara!AFS!is! located!in!central!Punjab!approximately!25!kilometers!southwest!of!the!city!of!Ludhiana.9!Prior! to!2011,!media!reports!indicated!that!the!base!primarily!operated!the!MiGA23!BN.10!In!imagery! from!prior!to!the!crisis,!no!fighter!activity!was!visible!at!this!base,!though!as!at!Amritsar!and! Ambala,!the!extensive!use!of!covered!aircraft!shelters!makes!it!impossible!to!draw!firm! conclusions!from!such!an!observation.!Imagery!from!2002,!however,!shows!a!very!different! situation,!with!twenty!aircraft!visible,!including!thirteen!of!the!aforementioned!MiGA23!BNs,!as! well!as!one!AnA32,!along!with!three!examples!of!what!appear!to!be!Sukhoi!SuA30MKIs,!one!of! which!was!observed!in!flight!(Figure!4).!The!presence!of!the!Sukhois!is!of!particular!interest,!as! they!represent!the!most!modern!of!all!IAF!fighter!aircraft,!with!its!first!squadron!of!the!aircraft! only!becoming!operational!on!27!September!2002,!a!mere!three!days!prior!to!the!image’s! acquisition.!Contemporary!reports!indicate!that!that!squadron!was!based!at!Pune!airbase!on! India’s!southwestern!coast.11!Whether!the!aircraft!were!temporarily!assigned!to!Halwara!for! potential!combat!duty!or!were!simply!visiting!as!part!of!a!training!exercise!is!unclear,!however! the!appearance!of!these!advanced!new!fighters!in!Punjab!during!a!period!of!elevated!border! tension!is!unlikely!to!have!gone!unnoticed!by!Pakistan!–!a!fact!of!which!the!IAF!was!surely! aware.! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 9!GlobalSecurity.org.!“Indian!Air!Force!Stations”!7!September!2011! http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/india/airbase.htm!accessed!on!2!March!2015! 10!The!Times!of!India.!“IAF’s!first!Sukhoi!squadron!in!Punjab!by!2011.”!16!November!2008! http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2008A11A16/india/27907735_1_squadronsAairAbaseAsuA30!accessed!on! 2!March!2,!2015! 11!S.L.!Kwast,!“Proliferation!of!Russian!Military!Equipment:!Implications!for!United!States!Air!and!Space!Power”,! thesis,!Boston!University!(2003).!http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA424624!accessed!on!2!March!2015!
! 10! ! Figure!4:!Aircraft!activity!at!Halwara!AFS,!India
`äçÅâïáëÉ=Ñêçã=íçé=äÉÑíW=^=pìâÜçá== pìJPM=jhf=EÄçííçã=~êêçïFI=fåÇá~Ûë=ãçëí=~Çî~åÅÉÇ= àÉí=ÑáÖÜíÉêI=í~âÉë=çÑÑ=Ñêçã=êìåï~ó=PN=~í=e~äï~ê~= ^cpI=Å~ëíáåÖ=~=îáëáÄäÉ=ëÜ~Ççï=çå=íÜÉ=ÖêçìåÇ=Eíçé= ~êêçïFX=íïç=pìJPMjhfë=é~êâÉÇ=åÉ~ê=~áêÅê~Ñí= ëÜÉäíÉêë=~í=e~äï~ê~=^cpX=fåÇá~å=^áê=cçêÅÉ=jádJOP= _kë=é~êâÉÇ=åÉ~ê=Ü~åÖ~êë=~í=e~äï~ê~=^cpK==^ää= áã~ÖÉë=~ÅèìáêÉÇ=N=lÅíçÄÉê=OMMOK=`ççêÇáå~íÉëW= PMKTR=kI=TRKSP=bK=fã~ÖÉs=aáÖáí~ä=däçÄÉ=ö=^å~äóëáë= ^^^p. Coordinates: 30.75 N, 75.63 E. =
! Sarsawa!AFS! ! Home!to!the!117th!and!152nd!helicopter!units!of!No.!30!Wing!IAF,!Sarsawa!AFS!is!located!in! northwestern!Uttar!Pradesh,!approximately!two!kilometers!southeast!of!the!town!of!the!same! name.!Of!all!the!airbases!observed,!Sarsawa!AFS!is!located!furthest!from!the!Pakistani!border,! some!280!kilometers!from!the!nearest!checkpoint.!Imagery!from!July!2002!revealed!a!large! number!of!helicopters!present!on!the!flightline!at!the!base,!a!deployment!which,!when!this! imagery!was!compared!with!postAcrisis!imagery!available!on!Google!Earth,!appears!typical.! ! ! ! !
! 11! ! Indian!Army!Bases!in!Kashmir! ! Located!among!the!Himalaya!mountains!in!IndianAadministered!Kashmir,!Leh!Cantonment! counts!among!the!most!significant!Indian!military!installations!in!the!disputed!territory!of! Jammu!and!Kashmir,!and!the!headquarters!of!the!army’s!XIV!corps!of!the!3rd!infantry!division.! Although!most!of!the!reports!that!resulted!from!the!standoff!concerned!areas!further!south! along!the!border!in!Punjab,!it!was!believed!that!the!contentious!nature!of!the!border!in!Kashmir! warranted!some!degree!of!scrutiny.!For!this!reason,!the!base!was!imaged!by!IKONOS!on!24! January!2002,!shortly!after!the!crisis!began.!Analysis!of!this!imagery!revealed!the!presence!of!a! large!number!of!transport!vehicles!at!the!base,!as!well!as!some!defenses!around!a!nearby! airfield,!however!comparison!with!postAcrisis!imagery!on!Google!Earth!suggests!that!this!level! of!activity!is!fairly!normal.! ! In!operation!since!1984,!the!Indian!Army!base!at!Siachen!Glacier!is!the!northernmost!military! outpost!in!IndianAcontrolled!territory,!and!at!over!6,000!meters!above!sea!level,!also!holds!the! distinction!of!being!the!highest!military!base!in!the!world.!To!its!north,!the!border!with! PakistanAcontrolled!Kashmir!is!poorly!defined!and!covered!by!a!massive!ice!sheet!whose! dangerous!terrain!and!weather!have!killed!far!more!soldiers!than!the!frequent!skirmishes!that! take!place!between!Indian!and!Pakistani!patrols.!The!ambiguity!of!the!border!and!history!of! violence!between!the!opposing!forces!make!Siachen!Glacier!an!attractive!target!for!imaging!in!a! crisis!situation,!and!an!image!of!the!base!was!acquired!on!20!March!2002.!Analysis!of!this!image! revealed!the!presence!of!four!helicopters!and!sixteen!fortified!artillery!pieces!(Figure!5).! However,!as!was!the!case!at!Leh!Cantonment,!a!comparison!with!postAcrisis!imagery!in!Google! Earth!indicates!that!such!deployments!are!not!unusual.!! ! Figure!5:!Siachen!Glacier!Forward!Logistics!Base,!IndianUAdministered!Kashmir!!
! The!Forward!Logistics!Base!at!Siachen!glacier!on!20!March!2002;!several!helicopters!(indicated!by!arrows)!are! visible,!however!this!appears!to!be!normal!for!the!base.!Image DigitalGlobe | Analysis AAAS. Coordinates:!35.18! N,!77.21!E.!
! 12! ! Indian!Army!Bases!in!Punjab!and!Haryana! ! Due!to!their!strategic!location!in!the!lowlands!between!the!Indian!capital!and!the!Pakistani! border,!the!army!bases!in!Punjab!and!Haryana!were!considered!excellent!targets!for!imaging.! Although!tanks!and!artillery!are!smaller!and!less!obvious!than!aircraft,!the!movements!of!such! assets!are!no!less!useful!from!an!analytical!point!of!view.!For!example,!at!Jalandhar! Cantonment,!the!headquarters!for!the!Indian!Army’s!XI!corps,!analysis!revealed!parking!lots!and! depots!full!of!vehicles!and!artillery!pieces!in!preAcrisis!imagery!from!early!2001.!By!the!summer! of!2002,!however,!nearly!all!of!these!had!disappeared,!as!would!be!expected!if!they!had!been! deployed!to!the!front!lines!of!the!conflict!(Figure!6).!During!the!same!period,!air!defenses!were! also!constructed!at!the!base,!and!a!number!of!helicopters!were!observed!that!had!not! previously!been!present.!! ! This!pattern!was!repeated!at!Patiala!Cantonment,!home!base!of!the!1st!armoured!division,! where!imagery!from!the!spring!of!2001!showed!large!numbers!of!heavy!trucks!and!other! vehicles,!most!of!which!had!disappeared!by!late!January!2002!(Figure!7).!Ambala!Cantonment,! adjacent!to!the!airfield!of!the!same!name,!headquarters!of!the!Army’s!II!Corps,!and!base!of!the! 40th!artillery!division,!also!saw!a!drastic!reduction!in!the!number!of!vehicles!present!(Figure!8).! Not!all!bases!proved!fruitful!for!analysis,!however.!Amritsar!Cantonment!–!also!adjacent!to!an! air!force!station!–!showed!little!to!no!change!between!the!fall!of!2001!and!the!spring!of!2002.!A! similar!lack!of!activity!was!observed!at!Chandimandir!Cantonment!between!imagery!acquired! during!and!after!the!crisis.! ! Figure!6:!Disappearing!Vehicles!and!Artillery!at!Jalandhar!Cantonment,!India,!22!April!2001!U!16! July!2002
! !Images DigitalGlobe|Analysis AAAS. Coordinates: 31.29 N, 75.62 E. ! ! !
! 13! Figure!7:!Disappearing!Vehicles!and!Artillery!at!Patiala!Cantonment,!India,!11!April!2001!U!24! January!2002
! Images DigitalGlobe|Analysis AAAS. Coordinates: 30.32 N, 76.37 E. ! Figure!8:!Disappearing!Vehicles!at!Ambala!Cantonment,!India,!8!April!2001!–!21!January!2002!
! Images DigitalGlobe|Analysis AAAS. Coordinates: 30.39 N, 76.80 E. ! Pakistani!Air!Force!Bases! ! PAF!Base!Rafiqui! ! Located!in!a!rural!area!of!Punjab!some!200!kilometers!southwest!of!Lahore,!PAF!Base!Rafiqui!is! the!home!base!of!five!squadrons!of!the!No.!34!Fighter!Wing,!equipped!with!several!variants!of! Dassault!Mirage!3!and!Mirage!5,!as!well!as!the!FA7PG,!an!export!version!of!the!Chengdu!JA7,! itself!a!Chinese!variant!of!the!MiGA21.!Rafiqui!was!imaged!twice!during!the!height!of!the!crisis,! with!only!eleven!days!separating!the!observations.!This!had!the!potential!to!expose!the! movements!of!aircraft!on!a!timescale!relevant!to!ongoing!tactical!operations,!as!to!opposed!
! 14! longAterm!deployments.!Analysis!of!this!imagery!revealed!activity!consistent!with!such! operations.!On!21!February!2002,!three!FA7s!and!three!Mirages!were!visible!on!the!base,!while! on!4!March,!two!of!the!three!examples!of!each!aircraft!type!were!no!longer!present.!Notably,! the!two!Mirages!that!disappeared!between!February!and!March!were!both!accompanied!by! what!appear!to!be!maintenance!vehicles!in!the!earlier!image,!indicating!preparations!for!flight! (Figure!9).! !
Figure!9:!Aircraft!movements!at!PAF!Base!Rafiqui,!21!February!2002!–!4!March!2002
! !Images DigitalGlobe|Analysis AAAS. Coordinates: 30.76 N, 72.28 E. ! PAF!Base!Minhas! ! Home!of!the!14th!and!87th!squadrons!of!the!33rd!multiArole/fighter!wing,!PAF!Base!Minhas!is! located!sixty!kilometers!northwest!of!Islamabad,!and!its!units!are!reported!to!be!equipped!with! Chengdu!FA7s.!In!imagery!from!October!2001,!before!the!crisis,!four!of!these!are!visible!in!the! open!at!a!number!of!locations!around!the!base,!along!with!seven!Dassault!Mirages,!and!two! aircraft!whose!type!could!not!be!determined.!Also!present!were!two!nearly!obsolete!Shenyang! FA6s,!the!export!variant!of!the!Chinese!JA6!(itself!a!copy!of!the!Russian!MiGA19),!which!were! retired!by!Pakistan!five!months!later.12!By!February!2002,!however,!only!one!FA7,!one!Mirage,! and!two!unknown!aircraft!were!visible,!consistent!with!a!strategy!of!concealment!or! redeployment!elsewhere.!Additionally,!a!number!of!new!defensive!positions!had!been! constructed!at!both!ends!of!the!runway!(Figure!10).! ! ! ! !
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 12!Defence!Journal.!“Final!Salute!to!FA6.”!May!2002!http://www.defencejournal.com/2002/may/salute.htm! accessed!on!2!March!2015!
! 15! Figure!10:!Aircraft!movements!and!airUdefense!construction!at!PAF!Base!Minhas,!15! October!2001!U!10!February!2002
! At!PAF!Base!Minhas,!aircraft!parked!in!the!open!prior!to!the!crisis!(A)!are!no!longer!visible!during!the!period!of! heightened!tensions!with!India!(B).!Over!the!same!period,!antiUaircraft!artillery!has!been!installed!at!the!end!of!the! base’s!runway!(CUD).!Images!DigitalGlobe!|!Analysis!AAAS.!Coordinates:!33.87!N,!72.40!E.! ! PAF!Base!Chaklala! ! Now!known!as!PAF!Base!Nur!Khan,!the!facility!known!during!the!crisis!as!PAF!Base!Chaklala!is! coAlocated!with!Islamabad!International!Airport.!The!base!hosts!the!35th!Composite!Air! Transport!Wing,!equipped!with!a!large!number!of!transport!aircraft.!Its!various!squadrons! include!cargo!planes!such!as!the!Lockheed!CA130!and!Ilyushin!IlA78,!as!well!as!passenger!aircraft! ranging!from!the!wide!body!airliners!such!as!the!Airbus!A310!to!business!jets!like!the! Gulfstream!IV!and!Dassault!Falcon!to!small!propellerAdriven!transports!such!as!the!Piper!PAA34! and!Cessna!172.!The!airbase!is!also!located!directly!adjacent!to!Rawalpindi!Cantonment,!which! contains!GHQ!–!the!general!headquarters!of!the!Pakistani!Army.!Because!of!its!proximity!to!the!
! 16! city!of!Rawalpindi,!the!area!was!imaged!multiple!times!both!before!and!during!the!crisis,!and! represented!an!ideal!target!for!assessing!the!state!of!Pakistan’s!air!transportation!assets,!as! well!as!the!commandAandAcontrol!facilities!of!its!armed!forces.!! ! Due!to!the!sharing!of!facilities!between!the!military!base!and!the!busy!civilian!airport,!along! with!the!fact!that!many!of!the!aircraft!of!the!35th!wing!are!also!widely!used!by!civilian! operators,!distinguishing!military!from!civilian!activity!at!the!base!was!often!impossible.! Nevertheless,!imagery!acquired!on!27!June!2000,!though!of!poor!quality,!was!sufficient!to! reveal!the!presence!of!military!aircraft,!including!seven!CA130!Hercules!transports.!By!10! February!2002,!only!six!CA130s!were!visible,!and!although!their!parking!configuration!had! changed,!the!deployment!showed!little!substantive!change.!At!an!apron!adjacent!to!runway!12,! however,!three!fighter!aircraft!were!visible!that!had!not!been!present!in!preAcrisis!imagery,! though!the!quality!of!the!image!was!insufficient!to!definitively!identify!their!type.!By!June!2002,! the!fighters!were!no!longer!present,!and!the!number!of!CA130s!remained!constant!at!six.! ! Pakistan!Army!Bases! ! With!its!capital!resting!less!than!one!hundred!kilometers!from!the!line!of!control,!Pakistan! places!enormous!emphasis!on!the!defense!of!the!plains!of!Punjab,!and!has!constructed!many! army!bases!in!the!area.!One!of!these,!Mangla!Cantonment,!is!located!75!kilometers!southwest! of!Islamabad,!and!serves!as!the!headquarters!for!the!Army’s!I!corps,!as!well!as!hosting!its!19th! infantry!division.!Although!little!in!the!way!of!weapons!was!observed!at!this!location,!between! September!2001!and!the!end!of!January!2002,!imagery!reveals!that!hundreds!of!trucks!and! other!logistics!vehicles!disappeared!from!parking!lots!and!vehicle!depots!throughout!the!base,! as!shown!in!Figure!11.! !
Figure!11:!Disappearing!vehicles!at!Mangla!Cantonment,!15!September!2001!U!30!January!2002
! !Images DigitalGlobe|Analysis AAAS. Coordinates: 33.13 N, 73.62 E. !
! 17! This!scene!repeated!itself!at!bases!throughout!Pakistan.!For!example,!at!Jhelum!Cantonment,! 25!kilometers!south!of!Mangla!Cantonment,!large!numbers!of!trucks!were!observed!in!preAcrisis! imagery,!along!with!a!number!of!pieces!of!field!artillery.!By!January!2002,!however,!the!artillery! and!many!of!the!trucks!had!disappeared,!and!a!convoy!of!military!vehicles!was!seen!on!the! streets!immediately!adjacent!to!the!base!(Figure!12).! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
! 18! Figure!12:!Vehicles!and!artillery!vanish!from!Jhelum,!20!December!2000!U!27!January!2002! !
^í=gÜÉäìã=Å~åíçåãÉåíI=m~âáëí~åI=~=Åçãé~êáëçå=çÑ= éêÉJÅêáëáë=~åÇ=éçëíJÅêáëáë=áã~ÖÉêó=êÉîÉ~äë=íÜ~í= ä~êÖÉ=åìãÄÉêë=çÑ=îÉÜáÅäÉë=E^I=_F=~åÇ=~êíáääÉêó=E`I=aF= ïÉêÉ=êÉãçîÉÇ=Ñêçã=çìíÇççê=ëíçê~ÖÉ=ÇÉéçíëK=qÜÉ= éêÉëÉåÅÉ=çÑ=~=ãáäáí~êó=Åçåîçó=çå=íÜÉ=ëíêÉÉíë=åÉ~ê= íÜÉ=Ñ~Åáäáíó=EbF=ëìÖÖÉëíë=íÜ~í=íÜáë=éÜÉåçãÉåçå=áë= êÉä~íÉÇ=íç=êÉÇÉéäçóãÉåíë=~ëëçÅá~íÉÇ=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ= çåÖçáåÖ=ÄçêÇÉê=ÅçåÑäáÅíK=Images DigitalGlobe | Analysis AAAS.`ççêÇáå~íÉëW=POKVOkI= TPKTNbK= =
! 19! A!similar!disappearance!of!artillery!was!observed!in!Multan!Cantonment,!headquarters!of!the!II! Corps!and!1st!armoured!division,!in!southwest!Punjab.!Air!defenses!were!constructed!there! during!the!same!time!period,!as!shown!in!Figure!13.! ! Figure!13:!Disappearing!guns!and!air!defense!construction!in!Multan!Cantonment,!1!September! 2001!U!26!September!2002
! !Images DigitalGlobe|Analysis AAAS. Coordinates: 30.23 N, 71.40 E. Not!all!bases!exhibited!this!effect,!however.!Notably,!Rawalpindi!cantonment!showed!little!to! no!visible!activity!in!the!three!images!that!were!acquired!of!it!(the!same!three!that!covered!PAF! base!Chaklala).!One!explanation!for!this!may!be!that,!as!the!general!headquarters!of!the! Pakistani!army,!Rawalpindi!cantonment!may!be!more!focused!on!command!and!control!than!on! the!logistical!elements!of!military!affairs.!Muree!cantonment,!located!north!of!Islamabad!near! the!disputed!territory!of!Kashmir,!also!showed!no!visible!activity!at!all!–!a!finding!that!is! consistent!with!the!lack!of!a!noticeable!increase!in!militarization!observed!along!the!northern! border!on!the!Indian!side!(e.g.,!Siachen!glacier).!Rahwali!Cantonment,!located!just!north!of!the!
! 20! city!of!Gujranwala,!is!the!headquarters!of!the!Army’s!XXX!corps;!it!also!hosts!the!6th!armoured! division,!2nd!artillery!division,!and!No.!4!Army!aviation!squadron.!The!same!emptying!of!vehicles! and!artillery!that!was!observed!in!other!bases!may!have!taken!place!at!this!site!as!well!–!both! vehicles!and!artillery!were!observed!in!“before”!imagery!–!however!the!presence!of!clouds! prevented!confirmation!of!the!assets’!removal.! ! Border!Regions* ! Despite!the!reportedly!intense!militarization!that!took!place!along!the!border,!attempts!to! image!the!frontier!directly!returned!little!usable!information!–!particularly!when!compared!to! the!large!areas!covered!by!each!image.!There!are!several!possible!explanations!for!this,!which! need!not!be!mutually!exclusive!of!oneAanother.!First,!the!border!between!India!and!Pakistan!is! 2900!kilometers!long,!and!even!large!numbers!of!troops!and!equipment!will!necessarily! become!less!dense!when!dispersed!along!such!a!frontier.!Second,!when!in!the!field!–!and! particularly!in!crisis!situations!–!militaries!often!go!to!great!lengths!to!conceal!and!camouflage! their!positions.!Finally,!the!area!that!was!imaged!represents!only!a!very!small!fraction!of!the! entire!border.!Although!much!research!went!into!determining!which!locations!along!the!border! were!most!likely!to!reveal!significant!deployments,!it!is!possible!that!the!bulk!of!the!mobilized! forces!were!located!elsewhere.!Nevertheless,!some!relevant!observations!were!made!in!the! border!areas.!In!the!section!of!the!border,!20!kilometers!northeast!of!Lahore,!for!example,! freshly!constructed!earthworks!were!visible!on!the!Indian!side!of!the!border,!with!a!small! cluster!of!vehicles!concealed!directly!behind!them.!Nearby,!on!the!Pakistani!side,!several!small! mortar!emplacements!were!observed!in!fields!(Figure!14).! ! Figure!14:!Defensive!Earthworks!and!Probable!Mortar!Positions!along!the!border,!5!June!2002
Images DigitalGlobe|Analysis AAAS. Coordinates: 31.73 N, 74.50 E. ! ! * * *
! 21! Interpretation* ! Despite!their!large!size!and!easily!identifiable!shapes,!analysis!of!aircraft!deployments!appears! to!be!an!unreliable!metric!for!interpreting!conflict!along!the!IndiaAPakistan!border.!Due!to!the! topAdown!perspective!afforded!by!satellite!imagery,!the!use!of!hangars!or!other!shelters!that! obstruct!the!view!of!aircraft!from!above!are!extremely!effective!at!limiting!the!effectiveness!of! such!methods.!Even!if!not!being!used,!the!mere!presence!of!such!facilities!at!an!airfield!vastly! increases!the!uncertainties!associated!with!aircraft!counts,!as!each!such!shelter!represents!at! least!one!aircraft!–!and!often!many!more!–!that!may!or!may!not!be!present.!Furthermore,!if!a! belligerent’s!goal!is!to!limit!the!exposure!of!their!aircraft!to!possible!enemy!fire,!the!dispersal! and/or!concealment!of!those!assets!in!hangars!or!hardened!shelters!makes!good!tactical!sense! during!a!crisis!situation.!Though!far!from!conclusive,!the!activity!observed!at!PAF!Base!Minhas! provides!some!evidence!that!this!may!have!been!put!into!effect.!Despite!these!problems,!when! they!are!sighted,!aircraft!are!capable!of!providing!useful!information,!as!illustrated!by!the! detection!of!the!topAofAthe!line!SuA30MKIs!at!an!airfield!far!from!their!home!base,!and! intimidatingly!close!to!the!Pakistani!border.! ! Analysis!of!groundAbased!assets!shows!considerably!more!promise!as!an!indicator!of! heightened!tension.!Unlike!aircraft,!large!numbers!of!transport,!logistics!vehicles,!and!artillery! in!Indian!and!Pakistani!military!bases!are!stored!in!outdoor!depots!during!peacetime.!In!times! of!crisis,!however,!these!facilities!appear!to!become!empty!regardless!of!the!side!of!the!border! on!which!they!are!found.!Presumably,!this!phenomenon!reflects!decisionAmaking!on!the!part!of! Indian!and!Pakistani!military!planners,!and!manifests!itself!when!the!absent!vehicles!and! weapons!shift!from!being!held!in!reserve!to!being!forward!deployed!–!a!conclusion!supported! by!the!observation!of!a!moving!military!convoy!outside!Jhelum!Cantonment.!Both!air!force!and! army!bases!also!often!saw!the!construction!of!new!antiAaircraft!batteries,!which!can!be! interpreted!as!a!sign!of!increased!expectation!of!aerial!attack.! ! When!studying!a!border!as!lengthy!as!the!one!that!separates!India!and!Pakistan,!imaging!of!the! entire!border!itself!is!impractical!without!an!extremely!large!budget!for!imagery!acquisition!and! analysis.!Attempts!to!sample!the!border!at!areas!that!appear!likely!to!show!signs!of!tension! were!partially!successful.!However,!the!small!number!of!observed!phenomena!compared!to!the! cost!of!the!imagery!and!time!required!for!the!analysis!of!such!large!areas!makes!this!technique! less!effective!than!methods!that!involve!the!targeting!of!known!military!areas.! ! Conclusions! ! In!late!2001!and!early!2002,!India!and!Pakistan!were!at!the!brink!of!what!would!have!been!their! fifth!war!in!fiftyAfour!years.!The!standoff!was!the!result!of!a!longArunning!territorial!dispute!that! dates!back!to!the!partition!of!British!India.!That!the!crisis!was!resolved!before!it!escalated!into! fullAscale!war!does!not!diminish!its!utility!as!a!learning!tool!for!studying!border!conflict.! Statements!and!actions!from!both!sides!reinforce!the!conclusion!that!war!between!two!hostile! and!nuclearAarmed!powers!was!imminent.!Despite!the!challenges!associated!with!monitoring!a! conflict!of!such!magnitude,!the!use!of!remote!sensing!to!draw!conclusions!from!this!
! 22! confrontation!was!largely!successful.!In!particular,!the!results!underline!the!importance!of! making!targeted!observations!of!known!military!facilities,!as!opposed!to!semiArandom!samples! of!the!border!in!question,!which!is!problematic!due!to!concealment,!dispersal,!and!the!large! size!of!the!area!in!question.!Monitoring!ground!forces!is!especially!useful!–!particularly!those! bases!known!to!contain!artillery!and!armored!forces.!Aircraft!and!airbases!tend!to!produce! more!ambiguous!results!due!to!the!lower!numbers!of!assets!and!high!potential!for! concealment.!
! 23! www.aaas.org/geotech/borders