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India and Pakistan : India and Pakistan –2001-2002 Disclaimer Contact the Geospatial Technologies Project geotech © Copyright 2015 Geospatial Technologies Project Program Associate Acknowledgement Introduction** ! Perhaps!no!international!border!is!as!fraught!with!as!much!ongoing!conflict!as!the!one! separating!India!and!Pakistan.!Even!the!demilitarized!zone!separating!the!Koreas,!often!cited!as! the!archetypical!example!of!crossAborder!acrimony,!has!been!essentially!static!for!over!sixty! years.!During!a!comparable!period!of!time,!tensions!along!the!border!between!India!and! Pakistan!have!erupted!into!fullAscale!war!on!four!separate!occasions,!in!1947,!1965,!1971,!and! 1999.!On!13!December!2001,!this!already!tense!situation!was!significantly!exacerbated!when! gunmen!linked!to!the!Pakistani!militant!group!LashkarAeATaiba!attempted!to!storm!the!Indian! parliament!following!a!joint!session!of!the!legislature,!killing!five!guards,!two!employees,!and! directly!threatening!the!integrity!of!the!Indian!government.1,2! ! Incensed!by!the!attack,!the!response!of!India’s!political!leadership!–many!of!whom!had!been! present!in!the!building!at!the!time–!was!swift!and!uneQuivocal.!Within!days,!India!called!for!a! general!mobilization,!and!three!armored!divisions!and!over!a!half!million!troops!were!began! establishing!positions!along!the!Pakistani!border.3,4!In!the!words!of!Indian!National!Security! Advisor!Brajesh!Mishra,!“in!January…we!were!on!the!point!of!launching!a!fullAscale!war.”!A! senior!Indian!army!officer!in!the!Punjab!echoed!these!sentiments!saying!“By!the!6th,!we!were! one!hundred!percent!prepared.”5!Pakistan!responded!to!India’s!actions!by!placing!its!military! on!high!alert,!mobilizing!over!300,000!troops,!and!redeploying!two!Army!corps!from!the!Afghan! border!to!the!line!of!control!separating!the!Indian!and!PakistaniAcontrolled!areas!of!Kashmir.4! ! A!brief!lull!ensued!following!an!address!by!Pakistani!leader!Pervez!Musharraf!on!12!January! 2002.!Tensions!escalated!yet!again,!however,!following!an!incident!on!14!May!2002!in!which! extremists!dressed!in!army!uniforms!attacked!a!bus!and!stormed!the!family!Quarters!of!an! Indian!Army!encampment!in!Kaluchak,!killing!thirty!one,!including!ten!children!and!a!twoA monthAold!girl.6!Following!the!attack,!contemporary!sources!recounted!that!the!atmosphere! was!even!more!conducive!to!war!than!it!had!been!in!January,!with!crossAborder!shelling!and! blackout!exercises!continuing!throughout!the!region!for!the!remainder!of!the!month!and!into! June.5!Following!diplomatic!initiatives!by!Russia!and!the!United!States,!the!situation!gradually! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1!The!New!York!Times.!“Suicide!Raid!in!New!Delhi;!Attackers!Among!12!Dead.”!14!December!2001! http://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/14/world/suicideAraidAinAnewAdelhiAattackersAamongA12Adead.html!accessed! on!2!March!2,!2015.! 2!The!New!York!Times.!“Group!in!Pakistan!is!Blamed!by!India!for!Suicide!Raid”!15!December!2001! http://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/15/world/groupAinApakistanAisAblamedAbyAindiaAforAsuicideAraid.html#!accessed! on!2!March!2015.! 3!P.!Nayak!and!M.!Krepon,!“US!Crisis!Management!in!South!Asia’s!Twin!Peaks!Crisis”!(Stimson!Center,!Washington,! DC)!http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/researchApdfs/USCrisisManagement.pdf!accessed!on!2!March!2015! 4!GlobalSecurity.org!“2002!–!Kashmir!Crisis”!7!November!2011! http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/kashmirA2002.htm!accessed!on!2!March!2015.! 5!A.!Stolar,!“To!the!Brink:!Indian!DecisionAMaking!and!the!2001A2002!Standoff”!(Report!No.!68,!Stimson!Center,! Washington,!DC,!2008)!http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/researchApdfs/To_the_Brink.pdf! 6!The!Guardian.!“Kaluchak!keeps!the!flag!of!vengeance!flying.”!7!June!2002! http://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/jun/08/pakistan.india1!accessed!on!2!March!2015.! ! 1! deAescalated!throughout!the!summer!and!autumn!of!2002,!culminating!with!a!ceaseAfire! agreement!signed!by!both!parties!in!November!2003.! ! Although!the!2001/2002!standoff!ended!without!escalating!into!allAout!war,!it!was!the!most! serious!of!the!India/Pakistan!disputes!that!have!taken!place!since!the!widespread!availability!of! satellite!imagery,!and!the!preparations!of!both!militaries!went!all!the!way!to!the!brink.!These! mobilizations!are!instructive,!because!both!Indian!and!Pakistani!political!leaders!admit!that!war! between!the!two!countries!was!a!very!real!possibility!in!the!first!half!of!2002,!and!as!such!they! are!likely!identical!to!what!would!have!taken!place!in!the!event!of!an!outright!conflict,!merely! stopping!short!of!execution.!Furthermore,!as!demonstrated!by!the!2008!Mumbai!attacks!and! subseQuent!standoff!at!the!border,!there!is!no!guarantee!that!similar!events!will!not!happen!in! the!future,!or!that!they!will!be!successfully!handled!through!diplomatic!means.!For!these! reasons,!the!events!of!2001A2002!have!much!to!teach!us!about!the!nature!of!conflict!in!this! volatile!region.! ! Data*and*Methods* ! The!timeframe!of!the!events!in!Question,!coming!so!shortly!after!the!1999*launch!of!IKONOS,! the!first!highAresolution!commercial!imaging!satellite,!makes!the!study!of!this!conflict! challenging!compared!to!more!recent!disputes!that!benefit!from!a!mature!imagery! environment.!There!are!several!reasons!for!this.!First,!in!order!to!accurately!gauge!the!effects! of!mobilization,!it!is!preferable!to!obtain!multitemporal!(i.e.,!“before!and!after”)!imagery,!which! reQuires!that!two!or!more!imaging!passes!have!taken!place!over!a!given!area!–!a!condition!that! is!less!likely!to!be!fulfilled!early!in!a!spacecraft’s!lifetime.!Second,!as!the!earliest!highAresolution! commercial!imaging!satellite,!the!capabilities!of!IKONOS!are!less!advanced!than!its!more!recent! contemporaries.!This!effect!is!particularly!noticeable!when!comparing!resolution;!the!80A centimeter!coverage!of!IKONOS!is!noticeably!coarser!than!that!of!more!recent!sensors,! particularly!when!looking!at!small!targets!such!as!tanks!or!artillery!pieces.! ! Despite!these!challenges,!an!initial!survey!of!the!border!area!identified!twentyAsix!sites!that! were!evaluated!as!favorable!candidates!for!exhibiting!signs!of!the!reported!buildup.!These!sites! included!army!bases!and!cantonments!in!both!India!and!Pakistan,!as!well!as!airbases,!and! military!facilities!along!the!border.!In!most!cases,!multitemporal!coverage!from!both!before!and! after!the!standoff!was!available,!enabling!the!most!accurate!possible!assessment!of!the!state!of! affairs.!However,!several!areas!were!also!included!despite!the!availability!of!only!a!single!image,! due!to!their!potential!strategic!significance.!A!listing!of!these!locations!and!the!associated! imagery!is!shown!in!Table!1.7!Of!the!ten!army!and!air!force!bases!in!northwest!India!imaged!in! this!study,!three!were!located!in!Punjab,!one!in!Haryana,!one!in!Uttar!Pradesh,!and!two!in!the! disputed!territory!of!Jammu!and!Kashmir.!!In!Pakistan,!all!military!installations!were!located! within!that!country’s!Punjab!province.!A!map!showing!the!locations!of!these!bases!is!shown!in! Figure!1.! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 7!Scramble.nl!“Armed!Forces!Overviews:!India”!http://www.scramble.nl/orbats/india/overview!accessed!on!2! March!2015! ! 2! India*1*Army* ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Facility* Date* Sensor* Image*ID* Units*Stationed* XIV!Corps!HQ,!3rd! Leh!Cantonment! 2002/01/24! IKONOS! 20020124054229600000116012992000012688306THC! Inf.!Div.! Chandimandir! Western!Command! 2002/03/06! IKONOS! 20020306053806700000116077032000013278002THC! Cantonment! HQ! Patiala!Cantonment! 2001/04/11! IKONOS! 20010411054317700000116186592000008506901THC! 1st!Armoured!Div.! Patiala!Cantonment! 2002/01/24! IKONOS! 20020124054311400000116013012000012688409THC! 1st!Armoured!Div.! Jalandhar!Cantonment! 2001/04/22! IKONOS! 20010422054416400000116275322000008627400THC! XI!Corps!HQ! Jalandhar!Cantonment! 2002/07/16! IKONOS! 20020716054840900000116065542000015209700THC! XI!Corps!HQ! Amritsar!Cantonment! 2001/09/06! IKONOS! 20010906054003500000116092632000010797600THC! 15th!Inf.!Div.! Amritsar!Cantonment! 2002/04/22! IKONOS! 20020422055025300000116207002000013968502THC! 15th!Inf.!Div.! II!Corps!HQ,!40th! Ambala!Cantonment! 2001/04/08! IKONOS! 20010408053407900000116162792000008459700THC! Artillery!Div.! II!Corps!HQ,!40th! Ambala!Cantonment! 2002/01/21! IKONOS! 20020121053428700000116309942000012660004THC! Artillery!Div.! Siachen!Glacier! 2002/03/20! IKONOS! 20020320054640100000116214902000013475909THC! Rotating! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 3! India*1*Air*Force* ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Facility* Date* Sensor* Image*ID* Units*Stationed* Amritsar!Air!Force! No.!1!Forward!Base! 2002/04/22! IKONOS! 20020422055025300000116207002000013968502THC! Station! Support!Unit! 12!Wing,!No.!25,!48! Chandigarh!Air!Force! 2001/04/08! IKONOS! 20010408053343400000116162872000008439100THC! Sqn.,!No.!126HF,! Station! IAF! 12!Wing,!No.!25,!48! Chandigarh!Air!Force! 2002/03/06! IKONOS! 20020306053806700000116077032000013278002THC! Sqn.,!No.!126HF,! Station! IAF! Halwara!Air!Force! 34!Wing,!No.!22,! 2000/11/19! IKONOS! 20001119052752400000116310382000006522700THC! Station! 31,!220!Sqn.!IAF! Halwara!Air!Force! 34!Wing,!No.!22,! 2002/10/01! IKONOS! 20021001055445300000116196202000016395903THC! Station! 31,!220!Sqn.!IAF! Sarsawa!Air!Force! 2002/07/16! IKONOS! 20020716054908800000116058792000015209803THC! No.!30!Wing!IAF! Station! 7!Wing,!No.!3,!5,!14! Ambala! 2001/04/08! IKONOS! 20010408053407900000116162792000008459700THC! Sqn.!IAF! 7!Wing,!No.!3,!5,!14! Ambala! 2002/01/21!
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