DOCSLIB.ORG

March Climate Summary Non-Official Forecasts, As Well As Other Information

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
March Climate Summary Non-Official Forecasts, As Well As Other Information Issued: March 22, 2005 Disclaimer - This packet contains official and March Climate Summary non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this informa- Hydrological Drought – Hydrological drought continued to ease in the Southwest. tion, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. • Most of southwestern Arizona and southern New Mexico are now consid- CLIMAS disclaims any and all warranties, whether ered free of drought impacts. expressed or implied, including (without limita- tion) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will • Arizona statewide reservoir storage is above average, while New Mexico CLIMAS or the University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, statewide average storage is just over half of its average capacity. incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or Precipitation – Wetter-than-average conditions continue in much of the South- misuse of this data. west. Snowpack remains above average in many regional river basins despite slight decreases in some areas. In this issue: Temperature – Water year temperatures are above average. The past 30 days have 1 March 2005 Climate Summary generally been warmer than average. 2 Feature: Will the Drought Continue? Climate Forecasts – The long-lead temperature forecasts call for increased chances Recent Conditions of warmer-than-average conditions in Arizona and far western New Mexico 5 Temperature through September. Increased chances of above-average precipitation are predicted 6 Precipitation through June in New Mexico and western Arizona. 7 U.S. Drought Monitor 8 New Mexico Drought Status 9 El Niño – Models predict that the current weak El Niño will persist through mid to Arizona Reservoir Levels 10 New Mexico Reservoir Levels late summer before neutral conditions began to dominate the tropical Pacific Ocean. 11 Southwest Snowpack The Bottom Line – Continued improvement is expected in drought conditions Forecasts through June in the Southwest. 12 Temperature Outlook 13 Precipitation Outlook The climate products in this packet are available on the web: 14 Seasonal Drought Outlook http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/forecasts/swoutlook.html 15 Streamflow Forecast 16 Wildland Fire Outlook 17 El Niño Status and Forecast Early forecasts for this year’s crop of wildflowers looked good with some reports that it could be one Forecast Verification 18 of the best seasons on record (Tucson Citizen, Febru- Temperature Verification 19 Precipitation Verification ary 15). So far, dazzling displays of flowers colored the lowland desert of areas such as Death Valley, The Southwest Climate Outlook is jointly pub- California, the Pinacate Natural Reserve in Sonora, lished each month by the Climate Assessment Mexico, and the Kofa National Wildlife Refuge in for the Southwest project and the University of Arizona. Invasive grasses may be winning out over Arizona Cooperative Extension. annual flowers in some spots, but peak blooms Mike Crimmins, Extension Specialist could continue through late April in other areas. Gregg Garfin, CLIMAS Program Manager Wildflower lovers can check for updates at: Shoshana Mayden, Editor http://www.desertusa.com/wildflo/wildupdates.html Kristen Nelson, Assistant Editor Rick Brandt, Graduate Research Assistant http://www.desertmuseum.org/programs/flw_blooming.html Melanie Lenart, Research Associate In early March, fields of golden poppies were in bloom along Highway 86 near Kitt Peak. Photo by Shoshana Mayden. 2 | Feature Article Will the drought continue? Rains bring relief to Southwest, but experts caution the wet spell may be short-lived BY MELANIE LENART Short-term surplus The boon of precipitation is greening A series of fortunate events has pulled the Southwest and bringing forth a drought-busting precipitation into the colorful cast of wildflowers. Waterways Southwest since about fall. Still, clima- are also responding to the bounty, with tologists warned this doesn’t mean the many reservoirs filling surprisingly region has moved out of the danger fast from streams sometimes bursting zone for long-term drought. at their banks. Floods included a late December overflow of Oak Creek in Tropical rainfall, short-term pressure Sedona, Arizona. to believe that the groundwater has been systems that favored the Southwest, and short-changed over the past 48 months. El Niño conditions conspired to make “It’s really wet out there, that’s for We can’t say that the drought is gone.” the six-month September through Feb- sure,” agreed Tom Pagano, water sup- ruary period the second wettest in Ari- ply forecaster at the National Water Unfortunately, it seems unlikely that zona and third-wettest in New Mexico and Climate Center in Oregon. As of many of the conditions that led to the in the 111-year instrumental record, as mid-March, all three main reservoirs in recent stellar improvement will re-align indicated by a National Climatic Data Phoenix were rebounding dramatically next year. Center (NCDC) online comparison. from years of overdrafts. A spell of relief Meanwhile, New Mexico set a record “The Verde system, for all intents and The improvement arguably began high for November through February purposes, is completely full right now. when a tropical storm—the remnants precipitation, while the same period was Lake Pleasant on the Agua Fria is 99 of Hurricane Javier—drizzled days of the third wettest for Arizona, NCDC percent full. And the Salt system has rain on the Southwest as it cut a north- records show (Figure 1). gone where the Salt has never gone be- easterly diagonal across Arizona. Most fore,” Pagano said, alluding to a recent of the Southwest received at least some The September through February period expansion that allows the Salt system to moisture during the storm’s three-day was also record-breaking when consid- trap more water than it could previously. sojourn that started September 19, with ering the Four Corner states together, a regional high of 5.2 inches of precipi- NCDC reports show. This bodes well Even the San Carlos Reservoir in Gila tation falling on Promontory, Arizona. for spring snowmelt into rivers that sup- County is nearly half full, after hovering ply residents and farmers in the South- at about 4 percent capacity for much of The drizzle served as a gentle way to west, including the Colorado River. the past year. soak parched soils without pummeling them into an erosive state. But rainfall “We’re definitely in recovery mode. We “We’ve been in disbelief,” Pagano said. events linked to hurricanes only affect had to kick over that first domino,” said But he and others cautioned against Arizona every 4.5 years on average, ac- Mark Svoboda, a climatologist with the hailing the end of the drought. “It cording to calculations by Erik Pytlak of National Drought Mitigation Center. sounds really paradoxical, but I think a the National Weather Service’s Tucson “Mother Nature has a way of giving lot of people are concerned that this is office. things back a lot quicker than she takes really just a blip in a long-term drought it away.” situation.” On the heels of the tropical storm came a series of frontal events. Since about A really wet October saturated west- “Yes, we see the drought improving,” October, the Southwest has been re- ern soils roughly everywhere south agreed Charlie Liles, the meteorolo- ceiving a good share of the storms that of Oregon, Idaho, and Wyoming, gist in charge of the National Weather normally would keep clouds over the Svoboda said. With soils sated, addi- Service’s Albuquerque office. “The sur- Pacific Northwest, especially Oregon tional moisture could flow into streams face looks great because of the recent wet and Washington. and reservoirs. weather and the snowpack. But I have continued on page 3 Southwest Climate Outlook, March 2005 3 | Feature Article 7 continued New Mexico Drought, 6 “It’s going to look like an El Niño year El Niño impacts in the 5 when you look at the overall pattern of Southwest tend to center 4 dryness in the Northwest and wetness around winter precipita- 3 2 in the Southwest,” Svoboda said. “But tion. 1 looks can be deceiving.” Precipitation (inches) Precipitation 0 The long and short of it In fact, the “smoking gun” from late Regardless of which 1896 1902 1908 1914 1920 1926 1932 1938 1944 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 14 December through January can be way the winds blow, Arizona traced to short-term atmospheric pres- the drought that estab- 12 sure systems, mainly a Madden Julian lished over more than a 10 Oscillation (MJO), said Ed O’Lenic, decade won’t disappear 8 chief of the operations branch for overnight. Nor will its 6 NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. impacts. 4 Precipitation (inches) Precipitation 2 “The MJO lives and dies on the time “It takes a while to dig 0 scale of about a month. And an El Niño yourself into a hole. And lasts a year or more. They are two very it takes a while to get 1896 1902 1908 1914 1920 1926 1932 1938 1944 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 different kinds of things,” O’Lenic yourself out of it,” as Year (November-February) explained. “Both of them can have im- Pagano put it. At the Figure 1. Precipitation from November 2004 through February pacts on the weather where we live.” moment, Arizona’s Lake 2005 was the highest on record for New Mexico (top figure) and Powell is still “bottom- the third-wettest on record for Arizona (bottom figure) com- The MJO is a relatively new discovery, ing out,” filled to only pared to previous November-February periods.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific Ab Sins Nicholas S
    Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Master's Theses Graduate School March 2019 Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific aB sins Nicholas S. Grondin Louisiana State University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses Part of the Climate Commons, Meteorology Commons, and the Physical and Environmental Geography Commons Recommended Citation Grondin, Nicholas S., "Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific asinB s" (2019). LSU Master's Theses. 4864. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses/4864 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Master's Theses by an authorized graduate school editor of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. CLIMATOLOGY, VARIABILITY, AND RETURN PERIODS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE STRIKES IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC BASINS A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in The Department of Geography and Anthropology by Nicholas S. Grondin B.S. Meteorology, University of South Alabama, 2016 May 2019 Dedication This thesis is dedicated to my family, especially mom, Mim and Pop, for their love and encouragement every step of the way. This thesis is dedicated to my friends and fraternity brothers, especially Dillon, Sarah, Clay, and Courtney, for their friendship and support. This thesis is dedicated to all of my teachers and college professors, especially Mrs.
    [Show full text]
  • Full Version of Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting
    WMO-No. 1194 © World Meteorological Organization, 2017 The right of publication in print, electronic and any other form and in any language is reserved by WMO. Short extracts from WMO publications may be reproduced without authorization, provided that the complete source is clearly indicated. Editorial correspondence and requests to publish, reproduce or translate this publication in part or in whole should be addressed to: Chairperson, Publications Board World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 7 bis, avenue de la Paix P.O. Box 2300 CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland ISBN 978-92-63-11194-4 NOTE The designations employed in WMO publications and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of WMO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in preference to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned or advertised. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in WMO publications with named authors are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of WMO or its Members. This publication has not been subjected to WMO standard editorial procedures. The views expressed herein do not necessarily have the endorsement of the Organization. Preface Tropical cyclones are amongst the most damaging weather phenomena that directly affect hundreds of millions of people and cause huge economic loss every year. Mitigation and reduction of disasters induced by tropical cyclones and consequential phenomena such as storm surges, floods and high winds have been long-standing objectives and mandates of WMO Members prone to tropical cyclones and their National Meteorological and Hydrometeorological Services.
    [Show full text]
  • Thesis an Observational Analysis of Two Gulf Surge
    THESIS AN OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS OF TWO GULF SURGE EVENTS DURING THE 2004 NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT Submitted by Peter James Rogers Department of Atmospheric Science In partial fulfillment of the requirements For the Degree of Master of Science Colorado State University Fort Collins, Colorado Fall 2005 COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY 3 November 2005 WE HEREBY RECOMMEND THAT THE THESIS PREPARED UNDER OUR SUPERVISON BY PETER JAMES ROGERS ENTITLED AN OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS OF TWO GULF SURGE EVENTS DURING THE 2004 NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT BE ACCEPTED AS FULFILLING IN PART REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE. Committee on Graduate Work ______________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________ Advisor ______________________________________________________________ Department Head ii ABSTRACT OF THESIS AN OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS OF TWO GULF SURGE EVENTS DURING THE 2004 NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT Gulf surges are northward propagating disturbances along the Gulf of California (GOC) that are responsible for advecting large quantities of cool, moisture-laden air from the GOC or eastern tropical Pacific Ocean into the low deserts of the southwest United States and northwest Mexico during the North American Monsoon. Although numerous observational and modeling studies have examined the gross synoptic patterns, initiation mechanisms, general structure, and precipitation tendencies associated with gulf surges, little attention has been given to the dynamical mechanism(s) by which these disturbances propagate northward along the GOC. In this study, high temporal and spatial observational measurements collected during the 2004 North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) field campaign (1 July – 15 August) are used to describe the detailed vertical/ horizontal structure and probable dynamical mechanism(s) of two gulf surge events on a case-by-case basis.
    [Show full text]
  • Section 7: Floods
    Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan Section 7 – Floods City of Newport Beach, California SECTION 7: FLOODS Table of Contents Why Are Floods a Threat to the City of Newport Beach? ............................ 7-1 History of Flooding in the City of Newport Beach ............................................................... 7-3 Historic Flooding in Orange County .......................................................................................... 7-8 Historic Flooding in Southern California ................................................................................. 7-11 What Factors Create Flood Risk? ................................................................... 7-14 Climate ........................................................................................................................................... 7-14 Tides ................................................................................................................................................ 7-19 Geography and Geology .............................................................................................................. 7-20 Built Environment ......................................................................................................................... 7-21 How Are Flood-Prone Areas Identified? ....................................................... 7-21 Flood Mapping Methods and Techniques ................................................................................ 7-22 Flood Terminology ......................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Using the Superensemble Method to Improve Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Mark Rickman Jordan II
    Florida State University Libraries Electronic Theses, Treatises and Dissertations The Graduate School 2005 Using the Superensemble Method to Improve Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Mark Rickman Jordan II Follow this and additional works at the FSU Digital Library. For more information, please contact [email protected] THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF ARTS AND SCIENCES USING THE SUPERENSEMBLE METHOD TO IMPROVE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING By MARK RICKMAN JORDAN II A Thesis submitted to the Department of Meteorology in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Degree Awarded: Fall Semester, 2005 The members of the Committee approve the Thesis of Mark Jordan defended on 1 September 2005. _________________________________ T.N. Krishnamurti Professor Directing Thesis _________________________________ Carol Anne Clayson Committee Member _________________________________ Peter S. Ray Committee Member The Office of Graduate Studies has verified and approved the above named committee members. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would first like to thank my major professor, Dr. T.N. Krishnamurti, for all of his help through this process and for his unending encouragement and patience. Furthermore, I would like to thank Dr. Carol Anne Clayson and Dr. Peter Ray for their advice and assistance throughout this process. Thank you Brian Mackey and Dr. Vijay Tallapragada for all of your help and wonderful suggestions during this project. Others who deserve commendation for their assistance during the past year include Mrinal Biswas, Arindam Chakraborty, Akhilesh Mishra, Lydia Stefanova, Donald van Dyke, and Lawrence Pologne. Thank you Bill Walsh for all of your support, advice, and encouragement over the years, and thank you Mike and Beth Rice for your love and support during my entire educational career.
    [Show full text]
  • ANNUAL SUMMARY Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2004
    1026 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 134 ANNUAL SUMMARY Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2004 LIXION A. AVILA,RICHARD J. PASCH,JOHN L. BEVEN II, JAMES L. FRANKLIN,MILES B. LAWRENCE, AND STACY R. STEWART Tropical Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, NOAA/NWS, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 5 April 2005, in final form 2 August 2005) ABSTRACT The 2004 eastern North Pacific hurricane season is reviewed. It was a below-average season in terms of number of systems and landfalls. There were 12 named tropical cyclones, of which 8 became hurricanes. None of the tropical storms or hurricanes made landfall, and there were no reports of deaths or damage. A description of each cyclone is provided, and track and intensity forecasts for the season are evaluated. 1. Overview waves in the eastern North Pacific has been docu- mented in numerous occasions, for example, Avila et Two notable aspects of the 2004 season in the eastern al. (2003). Most of the tropical cyclones in 2004 origi- North Pacific hurricane basin (from 140°W eastward nated from tropical waves that moved westward from and from the equator northward) were that none of the Africa across the Atlantic basin before entering the tropical storms or hurricanes made landfall and that eastern North Pacific. These waves became convec- there were no reports of deaths or damage attributed to tively active and spawned tropical cyclones in the wa- tropical cyclones. In general, three or four named tropi- ters to the south and southwest of Mexico. cal cyclones strike the coast of Mexico each year. Tropi- Most of the tropical cyclones this season were steered cal cyclone activity was below average in the basin com- westward and west-northwestward away from the coast pared with the mean totals for the 1966–2003 period of of Mexico, around a 500-mb ridge extending from the 15 named storms and 8 hurricanes.
    [Show full text]
  • World Climate Research Programme
    INTERNATIONAL INTERGOVERNMENTAL WORLD COUNCIL FOR OCEANOGRAPHIC METEOROLOGICAL SCIENCE COMMISSION ORGANIZATION WORLD CLIMATE RESEARCH PROGRAMME 8th Session of the CLIVAR VAMOS Panel México City, Mexico, March 7-11, 2005 October 2005 WCRP Informal Report No. 14/2005 ICPO Publication Series No. 97 Table of contents: Executive Summary 2 1. Welcome and Opening Remarks 4 2. Reports and Scientific Presentations 4 2.1 CLIVAR Report 4 2.2 VAMOS Chair Report 5 2.3 ICPO Report 6 2.4 VAMOS International Project Office 6 2.5 VAMOS Data Management Update 7 2.6 VOCALS Status Report 8 2.7 MESA Status Report 9 2.8 PLATIN Status Report 10 2.9 NAME Status Report 11 2.10 Reports from Regional Programs 12 2.10.1 US CLIVAR Report 12 2.10.2 IAI Report 13 2.11 CPPA Program 13 2.12 Intra Americas Seas Program 14 2.13 Demmand-driven Information for Assessment and Management of Climate -related Risks 15 3. VAMOS Modeling Workshop 16 3.1 VAMOS Modeling 16 3.2 Charge to the Modeling Group for VAMOS 17 3.3 Physical Processes in the Monsoon regions 18 3.4 Climate Forecasts in the Monsoon Regions 24 3.5 VOCALS Modeling Activities 28 3.6 Integrated MESA-NAME-VOCALS Modeling Activities 31 4. Presentations by Local Scientists 36 5. VAMOS panel executive session 37 6. Acknowledgements 40 Appendix 1: List of Participants 41 Appendix 2: Agenda 48 Appendix 3: Welcome Words from Michel Rosengaus 51 Appendix 4: Local Scientists Presentations 52 Appendix 5: Acronyms 55 Appendix 6: NAME Data Analysis and SWG-7 Appendix 7: MESA SWG-1 VPM8 - 1 Executive Summary The eighth session of the WCRP/CLIVAR VAMOS Panel (VPM8) was hosted by the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), Mexico City, Mexico, 7-9 March, 2005.
    [Show full text]
  • Water Vapor and Surface Observations in Northwestern Mexico During the 2004 NAME Enhanced Observing Period E
    GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 35, L03815, doi:10.1029/2007GL031404, 2008 Water vapor and surface observations in northwestern Mexico during the 2004 NAME Enhanced Observing Period E. R. Kursinski,1 R. A. Bennett,2 D. Gochis,3 S. I. Gutman,4 K. L. Holub,4 R. Mastaler,1,5 C. Minjarez Sosa,1,6 I. Minjarez Sosa,7 and T. van Hove8 Received 25 July 2007; revised 23 October 2007; accepted 23 November 2007; published 14 February 2008. [1] We report on precipitable water vapor (PWV) from a season rainfall rather poorly. This is because summer Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver and surface rainfall is strongly modulated by small-scale dynamical meteorological network during the 2004 North American processes, topography and rapid diurnal evolution of the Monsoon Experiment (NAME) in northwestern Mexico. boundary layer, spatial and temporal scales that have proven The monsoon onset is evident as a large PWV increase over difficult to capture in models. Since most summer precip- several days beginning July 1. Data in the Sierra Madre itation in this region is convective, accurate model param- Occidental (SMO) foothills reveal a dynamical transition in eterizations of processes involved in moist convection are mid-August from smaller, sub-synoptic scale to larger, crucial in this region. The monsoon-affected regions of the synoptic scale moisture structure. During the Sub-synoptic southwest United States and, particularly, northwest Mex- phase in the SMO foothills, a positive feedback operates ico, have historically been poorly observed, presenting where near-daily precipitation supplied moisture maintains serious challenges for model initialization and validation.
    [Show full text]
  • ANNUAL SUMMARY Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2004
    1026 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 134 ANNUAL SUMMARY Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2004 LIXION A. AVILA,RICHARD J. PASCH,JOHN L. BEVEN II, JAMES L. FRANKLIN,MILES B. LAWRENCE, AND STACY R. STEWART Tropical Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, NOAA/NWS, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 5 April 2005, in final form 2 August 2005) ABSTRACT The 2004 eastern North Pacific hurricane season is reviewed. It was a below-average season in terms of number of systems and landfalls. There were 12 named tropical cyclones, of which 8 became hurricanes. None of the tropical storms or hurricanes made landfall, and there were no reports of deaths or damage. A description of each cyclone is provided, and track and intensity forecasts for the season are evaluated. 1. Overview waves in the eastern North Pacific has been docu- mented in numerous occasions, for example, Avila et Two notable aspects of the 2004 season in the eastern al. (2003). Most of the tropical cyclones in 2004 origi- North Pacific hurricane basin (from 140°W eastward nated from tropical waves that moved westward from and from the equator northward) were that none of the Africa across the Atlantic basin before entering the tropical storms or hurricanes made landfall and that eastern North Pacific. These waves became convec- there were no reports of deaths or damage attributed to tively active and spawned tropical cyclones in the wa- tropical cyclones. In general, three or four named tropi- ters to the south and southwest of Mexico. cal cyclones strike the coast of Mexico each year. Tropi- Most of the tropical cyclones this season were steered cal cyclone activity was below average in the basin com- westward and west-northwestward away from the coast pared with the mean totals for the 1966–2003 period of of Mexico, around a 500-mb ridge extending from the 15 named storms and 8 hurricanes.
    [Show full text]
  • East Pacific Hurricanes Bring Rain to Southwest
    | Feature Article East Pacific hurricanes bring rain to Southwest By Melanie Lenart the time frame 1966–1984, according to an earlier analysis by Walter Smith of Pacific hurricanes and tropical cyclones the National Oceanic and Atmospheric can have a profound influence even on Administration (NOAA) that was pub- the landlocked Southwest—and, argu- lished in 1986 as a NOAA Technical ably, their impact may increase as the Memorandum. oceans warm. However, it’s unlikely the studies by “It turns out that there’s quite a lot of Ritchie and Walter are directly compa- tropical cyclone activity that actually rable. Detecting remnants of tropical impacts the Southwest,” explained Eliza- cyclones remains more of an art than beth Ritchie, a climatologist who joined a science, researchers noted, as official The University of Arizona faculty this long-term tracking data ends when wind summer. September is the peak month speeds fall below tropical storm status. Figure 5. Satellite image of hurricane Javier for this activity, which has resulted in on September 13, 2004 approximately 610 some serious floods in years past. From 1974 through 2004, the number miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. of intense East Pacific hurricanes in- Source: Jesse Allen, NASA Earth Observatory, An average of 2.2 remnants from East creased by about a third, according to a data from the MODIS Rapid Response team Pacific hurricanes and named tropical study by Peter Webster of the Georgia cyclones ventured into the Southwest Institute of Technology and several Tropical storms generally must encoun- each year between 1992 and 2004, colleagues.
    [Show full text]
  • Influence of Tropical Cyclones on Humidity Patterns Over Southern Baja California, Mexico
    1208 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 135 Influence of Tropical Cyclones on Humidity Patterns over Southern Baja California, Mexico LUIS M. FARFÁN Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada B.C. (CICESE), La Paz, Baja California Sur, México IRA FOGEL Centro de Investigaciones Biológicas del Noroeste (CIBNOR), La Paz, Baja California Sur, México (Manuscript received 6 February 2006, in final form 10 July 2006) ABSTRACT The influence of tropical cyclone circulations in the distribution of humidity and convection over north- western Mexico is investigated by analyzing circulations that developed in the eastern Pacific Ocean from 1 July to 21 September 2004. Documented cases having some impact over the Baja California Peninsula include Tropical Storm Blas (13–15 July), Hurricane Frank (23–25 August), Hurricane Howard (2–6 Sep- tember), and Hurricane Javier (15–20 September). Datasets are derived from geostationary satellite imag- ery, upper-air and surface station observations, as well as an analysis from an operational model. Emphasis is given to circulations that moved within 800 km of the southern part of the peninsula. The distribution of precipitable water is used to identify distinct peaks during the approach of these circulations and deep convection that occurred for periods of several days over the southern peninsula and Gulf of California. Hurricane Howard is associated with a significant amount of precipitation, while Hurricane Javier made landfall across the central peninsula with a limited impact on the population in the area. An examination of the large-scale environment suggests that advection of humid air from the equatorial Pacific is an important element in sustaining tropical cyclones and convection off the coast of western Mexico.
    [Show full text]
  • Southwest Climate Outlook
    Issued: August 23, 2006 Southwest Climate Outlook In this issue... Precipitation page 7 The monsoon season has brought much-needed precipitation—and extensive flooding—to the South- west. Despite the abundant rain, precipitation across most of the re- gion remains below average since the start of the water year on October 1, 2005... NM Drought page 10 Source: Steve Novy, UA Institute for the Study of Planet Earth The short-term drought status has Photo Description: A roiling Rillito River reached record flow levels and spilled over improved considerably in New Mex- its banks in some places in Tucson, Arizona, on July 31, 2006 after heavy rains filled normally dry washes and rivers. At one location, the Rillito was rushing at about 30,000 ico since last month, thanks largely cubic feet per second, according to local news reports. to the abundant monsoon season rains. Virtually all of the state has seen some improvement... Would you like to have your favorite photograph featured on the cover of the Southwest Climate Outlook? For consideration send a photo representing South- west climate and a detailed caption to: [email protected] Monsoon page 14 Since July 1, most of the South- west has received above-average precipitation, with areas in central New Mexico and central Arizona re- ceiving 200–400 percent of normal amounts. Exceptions exist in western Arizona; Arizona’s central Navajo County; and... The information in this packet is available on the web: http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/forecasts/swoutlook.html 2 | Climate Summary August Climate Summary Drought – The monsoon rains have brought some drought relief to the Southwest, but Disclaimer - This packet contains official and the relief is likely to be temporary due to long-term moisture deficits.
    [Show full text]