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Southwest Climate Outlook Issued: August 23, 2006 Southwest Climate Outlook In this issue... Precipitation page 7 The monsoon season has brought much-needed precipitation—and extensive flooding—to the South- west. Despite the abundant rain, precipitation across most of the re- gion remains below average since the start of the water year on October 1, 2005... NM Drought page 10 Source: Steve Novy, UA Institute for the Study of Planet Earth The short-term drought status has Photo Description: A roiling Rillito River reached record flow levels and spilled over improved considerably in New Mex- its banks in some places in Tucson, Arizona, on July 31, 2006 after heavy rains filled normally dry washes and rivers. At one location, the Rillito was rushing at about 30,000 ico since last month, thanks largely cubic feet per second, according to local news reports. to the abundant monsoon season rains. Virtually all of the state has seen some improvement... Would you like to have your favorite photograph featured on the cover of the Southwest Climate Outlook? For consideration send a photo representing South- west climate and a detailed caption to: [email protected] Monsoon page 14 Since July 1, most of the South- west has received above-average precipitation, with areas in central New Mexico and central Arizona re- ceiving 200–400 percent of normal amounts. Exceptions exist in western Arizona; Arizona’s central Navajo County; and... The information in this packet is available on the web: http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/forecasts/swoutlook.html 2 | Climate Summary August Climate Summary Drought – The monsoon rains have brought some drought relief to the Southwest, but Disclaimer - This packet contains official and the relief is likely to be temporary due to long-term moisture deficits. non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this informa- tion, please understand that we do not warrant • Drought conditions are expected to improve in the short-term in New Mexico the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. and Arizona. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, SAHRA, and WSP disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limita- • Reservoirs in Arizona and New Mexico have declined since this time last year. tion) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extention, SAHRA, Fire Danger – Heavy rainfall and high humidities since the start of the monsoon sea- WSP, or The University of Arizona be liable to son have reduced the fire danger considerably, virtually ending the active fire season. you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or Temperature – Since the start of the water year on October 1, 2005, temperatures over misuse of this data. most of the Southwest have been above average. Table of Contents: Precipitation – Since the start of the monsoon season precipitation has been above average across most of the Southwest. Heavy rainfall has caused extensive flooding in 2 August 2006 Climate Summary many areas in Arizona and New Mexico. 3 Features: NWS new local three- month temperature outlook and Climate Forecasts – Experts predict increased chances of warmer-than-average tem- East Pacific hurricanes bring rain to Southwest peratures and equal chances of precipitation through November 2006. Recent Conditions El Niño – ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through February 2007. 6 Temperature 7 Precipitation The Bottom Line –Some drought relief has occurred due to the abundant rain since 8 U.S. Drought Monitor the start of the monsoon season, but that relief may be limited to short-term impacts 9 Arizona Drought Status due to the accumulated effects of long-term, multiyear precipitation deficits. 10 New Mexico Drought Status 11 Arizona Reservoir Levels 12 New Mexico Reservoir Levels 13 Southwest Fire Summary Monsoon brings floods to the Southwest 14 Monsoon Summary Forecasts The monsoon season has brought much- 15 Temperature Outlook needed precipitation, but even in the 16 Precipitation Outlook Southwest sometimes the summer rains 17 Seasonal Drought Outlook can be too much of a good thing. This year 18 Wildland Fire Outlook 19 monsoon season brought extensive flood- El Niño Status and Forecast ing to many areas. The floods have caused Forecast Verification millions of dollars of damage in both New 20 Temperature Verification Mexico and Arizona. Hundreds of families 21 Precipitation Verification in both states were forced to evacuate their residences, and extensive damage oc- curred to homes, businesses, farms, roads, canals, and other infrastructure. Gover- SWCO Staff: nors Bill Richardson in New Mexico and Janet Napolitano in Arizona have both re- Ben Crawford, CLIMAS Research Associate quested federal disaster assistance from President Bush. A few of the hardest hit ar- Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Specialist eas in New Mexico were Las Cruces, Albuquerque, and Hatch, the “chilli-growing Stephanie Doster, ISPE Information Specialist capital” of the Southwest. In Arizona Pima and Pinal Counties and the Havasupai Gregg Garfin, CLIMAS Program Manager reservation were severely impacted. Alex McCord, CLIMAS Technical Specialist Kristen Nelson, ISPE Associate Editor For more on flooding see Recent Precipitation page 7... Melanie Lenart, CLIMAS Research Associate This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension; and is funded by CLIMAS, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, and the Technology and Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program through the SAHRA NSF Science and Technology Center at the University of Arizona. Southwest Climate Outlook, August 2006 3 | Feature Article NWS new local three-month temperature outlook NOAA’s National Weather Service releases new climate product on the web By Andrea Bair, Marina Timofeyeva, Jenna Meyers, and Annette Hollingshead On the third Thursday of every month, researchers, farmers, ranchers, and a multitude of others with an interest in climate turn to the national three- month temperature and precipitation Grand Canyon NP, AZ outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center for a glimpse at what conditions to expect (see pages 15 and 16). Now, thanks to a new product that went online last month, they have the option of zooming in on climate predic- tion information at a local level. Figure 2. The CPC 3-month temperature outlook and the Grand Canyon local site where the On July 21, NOAA’s National Weather L3MTO is available. The L3MTO provides not only the most likely category, but also the prob- Service (NWS) introduced the Local ability for the other two categories to occur, in pie chart format with supportive text for inter- Three-Month Temperature Outlook pretation. The national 3-month temperature shows only the most likely category. (L3MTO), the first in a series of online Source: National Map, http://www.weather.gov/climate/l3mto.php; and Pie Chart local climate products to be released http://www.weather.gov/ climate/calendar_outlook.php?redir=1&wfo=fgz&site=23596&lead=1 by the NWS over the next two years. http://www.weather.gov/climate/. The cations around Phoenix, AZ, where the The L3MTO is available on all NWS NWS hopes to unveil a downscaled L3MTO is available. Users can move Weather Forecast Office (WFO) climate Local 3-Month Precipitation Outlook within and between states by using the webpages, offering users pie charts, (L3MPO) in 2008. arrow feature above the map. tables, and text to help interpret the While the national three-month outlook outlook for local climate conditions. The L3MTO is downscaled or trans- allows users to gain quick at-a-glance The local climate pages can be easily ac- lated from the three-month national information for the entire country, it cessed from a national map at temperature outlook, but contains the does not provide enough detail to be Phoenix Sky Harbor Intl Apt, AZ same type of information: the likeli- useful at the local level (Figure 2). The Maricopa County, Coop ID: 26481 hood (chance) of above-average, average, L3MTO is presented in several differ- Three Category and below-average temperature, and the ent formats to meet a wide range of user Temperature Outlook probability of exceedance—the expected needs. The first product format you will chance for a certain temperature to encounter online is a series of pie charts. be exceeded during a given time. The The pie chart provides the most likely difference is that the L3MTO extracts category, as well as the probability for Above Normal more spatial detail, presents the product the other two categories to occur, while Near Normal Below Normal information in several different formats, the national outlook only provides the and provides interpretation information. most likely category. The L3MTO is available for about The next product format of the L3MTO 1,160 locations nationwide, although suite is the temperature range graph the number of locations could increase (Figure 3), which displays all 13 future to approximately 4,000 sites in the fu- 3-month forecast periods for an en- Figure 1. Map of the area near Phoenix, ture, depending upon user requirements. tire year. The climatological median is Arizona where the L3MTO is available. On the map, the name of the site will be displayed as The product’s web interface includes plotted between five different user-se- the mouse moves over the site. Source: clickable maps and text options to help lected confidence intervals (or levels of http://www.weather.gov/climate/calendar_ navigate from one location to another. continued on page 4 outlook.php?wfo=psr For example, Figure 1 displays all the lo- http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/forecasts/swarticles.html Southwest Climate Outlook, August 2006 | Feature Article Albuquerque Apt, NM Bernalillo County, Coop ID: 290234 L3MTO, continued Temperature Range for 99% Confidence Interval expected chance), which include 99, 95, 90, 75, and 50 percent.
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