Feasibility Study of a Florida Commercial

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 1 INTRODUCTION ...... 5 PART 1: FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS...... 9 SUMMARY ...... 9 INTRODUCTION ...... 11 METHODOLOGY...... 12 SPACEPORT MISSIONS AND VEHICLE TYPES...... 12 VEHICLE D EVELOPER INTERVIEWS ...... 12 GOVERNMENT AND OTHER INTERVIEWS ...... 12 AWARENESS OF AND SUPPORT FOR A COMMERCIAL SPACEPORT...... 13 C OMMERCIAL PERSPECTIVE...... 13 GOVERNMENT AND OTHER PERSPECTIVES ...... 15 INFRASTRUCTURE...... 15 B ASIC R EQUIREMENTS...... 15 FIRST-TIER C OST ESTIMATES ...... 22 ON-SITE CONSIDERATIONS ...... 24 OFF-SITE CONSIDERATIONS ...... 26 OBSTACLES ...... 28 MISSION/VISION ...... 28 POLITICAL ...... 28 C OST ...... 28 R EGULATORY ...... 29 MILESTONES...... 29 B USINESS PLAN ...... 29 POLITICAL SUPPORT ...... 30 A DEQUATE FUNDING ...... 30 CONCLUSION...... 30 PART 2: LAUNCH FORECAST ...... 33 SUMMARY ...... 33 INTRODUCTION ...... 34 METHODOLOGY...... 35 SUBORBITAL M ARKETS ...... 35

Feasibility Study of a Florida Commercial Spaceport

C OMMERCIAL ORBITAL M ARKETS...... 35 GOVERNMENT ORBITAL M ARKETS ...... 36 A DDRESSABLE L AUNCHES ...... 36 FORECAST RESULTS...... 37 COMPARISON WITH OPERATOR ESTIMATES ...... 38 CONCLUSION...... 39 PART 3: ECONOMIC IMPACT...... 41 SUMMARY ...... 41 INTRODUCTION ...... 42 METHODOLOGY...... 42 SPACEPORT C ONSTRUCTION ...... 44 SPACEPORT OPERATIONS ...... 45 L AUNCH VEHICLE OPERATOR SPENDING ...... 46 L AUNCH VEHICLE OPERATOR SPENDING ...... 47 TOURISM, MANUFACTURING, AND SERVICES ...... 47 ECONOMIC IMPACT RESULTS ...... 48 SPACEPORT C ONSTRUCTION ...... 48 SPACEPORT OPERATIONS ...... 49 TOURISM, MANUFACTURING, SERVICES ...... 51 COMPARISON WITH RELATED AND AIRPORTS ...... 51 CONCLUSION...... 53 C OST/BENEFIT C OMPARISON OF SPACEPORT CONFIGURATIONS ...... 53 D IVERGENT SPACEPORT B USINESS MODELS ...... 53 SPACEPORT F ACILITY USAGE FEE STRUCTURE...... 54 SPACEPORT B USINESS PLAN ...... 54 SUBORBITAL L AUNCH V EHICLE M ANUFACTURING ...... 55 CONCLUSION...... 57 APPENDIX A: VEHICLE DEVELOPER PROFILES ...... 59 APPENDIX B: VEHICLE DEVELOPER INTERVIEW QUESTIONS ...... 69 APPENDIX C: GOVERNMENT INTERVIEW QUESTIONS ...... 71

Feasibility Study of a Florida Commercial Spaceport

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure E1: Spaceport Development Cost Estimates, 2006 - 2008 (Combined vs. Split Site)...... 2 Figure E2: Economic Impacts Generated by Spaceport Operations (2010) ...... 3 Figure E3: Economic Impacts Generated by Spaceport Operations (2015) ...... 3 Figure 1: Florida Spaceport Concept Alternatives...... 9 Figure 2: Vehicle Developer Infrastructure Needs ...... 10 Figure 3: Target Vehicles and Characteristics ...... 17 Figure 4: Vehicles Excluded from Analysis ...... 18 Figure 5: Typical Requirements for Suborbital Reusable Vehicles ...... 19 Figure 6: Typical Requirements for Orbital Expendable Launch Vehicles ...... 21 Figure 7: New Spaceport Infrastructure Cost Estimate ...... 22 Figure 8: Additional Cost Considerations...... 24 Figure 9: Potential Airport Sites for Spaceport...... 27 Figure 10: Suborbital Launch Forecast, 2006–2015 ...... 33 Figure 11: Orbital Launch Forecast, 2006–2015...... 34 Figure 12: Total Florida Addressable Launches, 2006–2015...... 37 Figure 13: Robust Scenario for Florida Launches, 2006–2015...... 37 Figure 14: Constrained Scenario for Florida Launches, 2006–2015...... 38 Figure 15: Comparison of Developer Estimates and Forecast Scenarios for 2015 Launches ...... 39 Figure 16: Economic Impacts of the Florida Commercial Spaceport (2015) ...... 41 Figure 17: Economic Impacts for Construction of the Florida Commercial Spaceport (2006-2008)...... 42 Figure 18: Florida Economic Impact Multipliers, RIMS II Model...... 43 Figure 19: Spaceport Facility Usage Fees Employed in Spaceport Revenue Model ...... 45 Figure 20: Map of United States RLV Manufacturer Vehicle Development Headquarters ...... 46 Figure 21: Economic Impact of Spaceport-relate