Feasibility Study of a Florida Commercial Spaceport Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................5 PART 1: FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS......................................................................9 SUMMARY ...................................................................................9 INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................11 METHODOLOGY..........................................................................12 SPACEPORT MISSIONS AND VEHICLE TYPES......................................... 12 VEHICLE D EVELOPER INTERVIEWS ..................................................... 12 GOVERNMENT AND OTHER INTERVIEWS ............................................... 12 AWARENESS OF AND SUPPORT FOR A COMMERCIAL SPACEPORT..........13 C OMMERCIAL PERSPECTIVE.............................................................. 13 GOVERNMENT AND OTHER PERSPECTIVES ........................................... 15 INFRASTRUCTURE.......................................................................15 B ASIC R EQUIREMENTS..................................................................... 15 FIRST-TIER C OST ESTIMATES ........................................................... 22 ON-SITE CONSIDERATIONS ............................................................... 24 OFF-SITE CONSIDERATIONS ............................................................. 26 OBSTACLES ..............................................................................28 MISSION/VISION ............................................................................. 28 POLITICAL .................................................................................... 28 C OST ........................................................................................... 28 R EGULATORY ................................................................................ 29 MILESTONES..............................................................................29 B USINESS PLAN ............................................................................. 29 POLITICAL SUPPORT ....................................................................... 30 A DEQUATE FUNDING ....................................................................... 30 CONCLUSION.............................................................................30 PART 2: LAUNCH FORECAST .........................................................................33 SUMMARY .................................................................................33 INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................34 METHODOLOGY..........................................................................35 SUBORBITAL M ARKETS .................................................................... 35 Feasibility Study of a Florida Commercial Spaceport C OMMERCIAL ORBITAL M ARKETS....................................................... 35 GOVERNMENT ORBITAL M ARKETS ...................................................... 36 A DDRESSABLE L AUNCHES ................................................................ 36 FORECAST RESULTS...................................................................37 COMPARISON WITH OPERATOR ESTIMATES .....................................38 CONCLUSION.............................................................................39 PART 3: ECONOMIC IMPACT...........................................................................41 SUMMARY .................................................................................41 INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................42 METHODOLOGY..........................................................................42 SPACEPORT C ONSTRUCTION ............................................................. 44 SPACEPORT OPERATIONS ................................................................ 45 L AUNCH VEHICLE OPERATOR SPENDING ............................................. 46 L AUNCH VEHICLE OPERATOR SPENDING ............................................. 47 TOURISM, MANUFACTURING, AND SERVICES ........................................ 47 ECONOMIC IMPACT RESULTS ........................................................48 SPACEPORT C ONSTRUCTION ............................................................. 48 SPACEPORT OPERATIONS ................................................................ 49 TOURISM, MANUFACTURING, SERVICES .............................................. 51 COMPARISON WITH RELATED SPACEPORTS AND AIRPORTS ...............51 CONCLUSION.............................................................................53 C OST/BENEFIT C OMPARISON OF SPACEPORT CONFIGURATIONS ............... 53 D IVERGENT SPACEPORT B USINESS MODELS ........................................ 53 SPACEPORT F ACILITY USAGE FEE STRUCTURE..................................... 54 SPACEPORT B USINESS PLAN ............................................................ 54 SUBORBITAL L AUNCH V EHICLE M ANUFACTURING .................................. 55 CONCLUSION....................................................................................................57 APPENDIX A: VEHICLE DEVELOPER PROFILES ..........................................59 APPENDIX B: VEHICLE DEVELOPER INTERVIEW QUESTIONS ..................69 APPENDIX C: GOVERNMENT INTERVIEW QUESTIONS ...............................71 Feasibility Study of a Florida Commercial Spaceport LIST OF FIGURES Figure E1: Spaceport Development Cost Estimates, 2006 - 2008 (Combined vs. Split Site).......................... 2 Figure E2: Economic Impacts Generated by Spaceport Operations (2010) ................................................... 3 Figure E3: Economic Impacts Generated by Spaceport Operations (2015) ................................................... 3 Figure 1: Florida Spaceport Concept Alternatives........................................................................................... 9 Figure 2: Vehicle Developer Infrastructure Needs .........................................................................................10 Figure 3: Target Vehicles and Characteristics ...............................................................................................17 Figure 4: Vehicles Excluded from Analysis ....................................................................................................18 Figure 5: Typical Requirements for Suborbital Reusable Vehicles ................................................................19 Figure 6: Typical Requirements for Orbital Expendable Launch Vehicles .....................................................21 Figure 7: New Spaceport Infrastructure Cost Estimate ..................................................................................22 Figure 8: Additional Cost Considerations.......................................................................................................24 Figure 9: Potential Airport Sites for Spaceport...............................................................................................27 Figure 10: Suborbital Launch Forecast, 2006–2015 ......................................................................................33 Figure 11: Orbital Launch Forecast, 2006–2015............................................................................................34 Figure 12: Total Florida Addressable Launches, 2006–2015.........................................................................37 Figure 13: Robust Scenario for Florida Launches, 2006–2015......................................................................37 Figure 14: Constrained Scenario for Florida Launches, 2006–2015..............................................................38 Figure 15: Comparison of Developer Estimates and Forecast Scenarios for 2015 Launches .......................39 Figure 16: Economic Impacts of the Florida Commercial Spaceport (2015) ..................................................41 Figure 17: Economic Impacts for Construction of the Florida Commercial Spaceport (2006-2008)...............42 Figure 18: Florida Economic Impact Multipliers, RIMS II Model.....................................................................43 Figure 19: Spaceport Facility Usage Fees Employed in Spaceport Revenue Model .....................................45 Figure 20: Map of United States RLV Manufacturer Vehicle Development Headquarters .............................46 Figure 21: Economic Impact of Spaceport-related Construction, Cumulative 2006 – 2008 ...........................48 Figure 22: Spaceport Development Cost Estimates, 2006 - 2008 (Combined and Split Sites)......................49 Figure 23: Economic Impacts Generated by Spaceport Operations (2010)...................................................50 Figure 24: Economic Impacts Generated by Spaceport Operations (2015)...................................................50 Figure 25: Economic Impact of Tourism Spending, Suborbital Operations (2015).........................................51 Figure 26: Economic Impacts of Spaceports and Airports of Interest ............................................................52 Figure 27: Cost/Benefit Comparison of Spaceport Configurations.................................................................53 Feasibility Study of a Florida Commercial Spaceport Feasibility Study