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Welshge2015 Survey: Post-Election Insights from Singaporeans

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Welshge2015 Survey: Post-Election Insights from Singaporeans WelshGE2015 Survey: Post-Election Insights on Voting in Singapore BRIDGET WELSH PROFESSOR, IPEK UNIVERSITY/ SENIOR RESEARCH ASSOCIATE, CENTER FOR EAST ASIA DEMOCRATIC STUDIES, NATIONAL TAIWAN UNIVERSITY/SENIOR ASSOCIATE FELLOW, THE HABIBIE CENTER/ UNIVERSITY FELLOW, CHARLES DARWIN UNIVERSITY About the Welsh GE2015 Survey This survey is an independent assessment of factors explaining voting behavior in Singapore’s GE2015. The purpose of the Welsh GE2015 Survey is to contribute to understanding and knowledge, to complement and expand the existing research on the political views of the Singaporean public. Welsh GE2015 was privately funded by a Singaporean citizen and implemented by a research firm based in Singapore. The survey questions and analysis were developed by Professor Bridget Welsh, with technical assistance provided by the Merdeka Center. Questions regarding the survey can be directed to [email protected] Sampling of the Welsh GE2015 Survey The survey was conducted by telephone. A total sample size of 800 were interviewed, with the results weighted in line with the Singapore Department of Statistics 2010 Census of Population updated annually for gender, ethnicity and age distribution. The sample size is a nationally representative sample with a margin of error of +/- 3.46%. The survey had a refusal rate of 18%, indicating reluctance to participate in survey research on political issues. Source(s) of Information: Findings GE2015 was not an Internet/Social Media Election Mainstream media remains the dominant source of information for political affairs, especially television. Social media and chat groups were less influential as a source of information, although chat groups were more important than in GE2011. Chat groups, such as WhatsApp, were the least impactful as a news source. MainSource(s) sources of information aboutof domestic Information political and current affairs 80% 71% 70% Mainstream media dominates 60% 57% information flow First Second 50% Total 44% 41% 40% 34% 30% 30% 26% 20% 19% 20% 14% 12% 10% 8% 7% 6% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% TV Channel Newspaper Internet Social media Radio Chat group Not following Others news Q: Please tell me TWO sources/channels you consider to be your main source of information about domestic political and current affairs? Prioritization of Sources of Information 1 - Lowest 2 3 4 5 - Highest Unsure/Refuse Newspaper 13% 13% 33% 21% 14% 6% TV Channel 11% 11% 25% 26% 22% 5% Facebook 21% 9% 18% 16% 11% 25% WhatsApp Group 38% 11% 14% 5% 3% 28% Mainstream media most important information source in GE2015 Q: On a scale of 1-5 with 5 as the highest, how influenced were you by the following sources in the 2015 General Election? Views of Current Political Conditions . A large majority perceive the country moving in the right direction, with nearly a third of Singaporeans strongly holding this view. There are only modest demographic differences in public perceptions of the direction of the country. For those Singaporeans perceiving the country moving in the right direction, stability, government performance and economic development are the main reasons provided. For those Singaporeans perceiving the country moving in the wrong direction, immigration and cost of living issues were the most important, followed by concerns with government performance. Very positive views on the direction of Direction of the Country Singapore Ethnicity / Gender Age Group Right Wrong Right Wrong 100 100 10% 2% 80 80 89 78 81 81 79 79 79 83 60 60 73 75 9% 30% 40 40 11 10 15 13 10 20 20 6 8 8 19 13 0 0 Chinese Malay Indian& Male Female 21-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 > 60 Others Household income ($) Education Level 49% 100 Right Wrong 100 Right Wrong 80 80 81 86 85 60 77 76 60 74 78 77 40 40 Strongly right Strongly wrong 13 13 13 18 20 11 20 6 11 8 Somewhat right Somewhat wrong 0 0 Unsure Refuse < $2,500 $2,501 – $5,001 - > $7,501 No formal/ Lower/ Diploma & Deg. & $5,000 $7,500 Primary Secondary equivalent above Q: Considering the conditions in the country today, how strongly would you say that things are heading in the right or wrong direction? Direction of the Country 79% 11% RIGHT DIRECTION (n=633) WRONG DIRECTION (n=90) Stability 24.60% Negative Impact Foreign Influx 25.60% Good Government Performance 11.60% High Cost of Living/Inflation 14.30% Favourable Economic Poor Government Performance 10.00% 9.00% Development Inadequate Political Change 9.90% Government Doing Best 4.10% Housing Prices and High Fees 4.40% Educational Opportunities and Education and Healthcare 3.80% Policies Poor Policies 3.90% Leadership Quality and 3.50% Engagement Social Differences and Problems 3.00% Social Welfare Benefits 3.10% Governance/Lack of Transparency 2.20% Others 16.70% Others 10.00% Unsure 21.30% Refuse 1.00% Refuse 1.40% Unsure 16.40% Stability and Economy versus Foreigners/Jobs and Cost of Living Q: And what would you say is the issue that is the main reason for you answering right/wrong direction? High satisfaction Satisfaction with the Government reported Ethnicity / Gender Age Group Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied 100 100 3%4% 80 80 84 85 87 89 11% 83 78 80 82 84 28% 60 60 73 40 40 20 12 12 10 20 11 12 11 20 16 24 6 0 0 Chinese Malay Indian& Male Female 21-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 > 60 Others Household income ($) Education Level Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied 54% 100 100 80 80 87 86 83 83 79 85 84 60 60 75 40 40 Strongly satisfied Strongly dissatisfied 20 11 20 9 10 12 19 14 14 22 Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied 0 0 Unsure/ Refuse < $2,500 $2,501 – $5,001 - > $7,501 No formal/ Lower/ Diploma & Deg. & $5,000 $7,500 Primary Secondary equivalent above Q: How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with how the government is performing these days? Satisfaction with the Government 82% 13% SATISFIED (n=661) DISSATISFIED (n=106) Singapore is doing 12% High cost of living/inflation 20% well/Stability Peaceful conditions 10% Influx of Foreigners 17% Social Welfare Benefits 7% Lack of transparency 7% “Effective Administration 4% CPF issues/Wages issues 5% Favorable Economic Inadequate Welfare for the 3% 5% Conditions People Inefficiency of transportation Good policies 3% 3% (poor services) Unsure/ Don't know 13% Unsure/ Refuse 9% Q: What would you say is the issue that is the main reason for your answer? (satisfied with performance) Participation in GE2015 Nearly two-thirds of Singaporeans followed the GE2015 campaign, challenging the myth that Singaporeans are politically apathetic. Interest is high among younger Singaporeans. Voting remains the main form of political participation, with only small shares of Singaporeans attending rallies or engaging in campaigning. Follow the Election Campaign High engagement with campaign, with modest variation Ethnicity / Gender Age Group Yes No Yes No 2% 80 80 60 60 64 67 66 67 65 63 58 61 62 61 40 40 39 34% 37 35 35 36 20 34 33 32 20 33 34 0 0 Chinese Malay Indian& Male Female 21-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 > 60 64% Others Household income ($) Education Level Yes No Yes No 80 80 60 72 60 66 65 69 65 68 62 58 40 40 Yes 40 20 35 33 33 20 33 30 No 27 27 Unsure/Refused 0 0 < $2,500 $2,501 – $5,001 - > $7,501 No formal/ Lower/ Diploma & Deg. & $5,000 $7,500 Primary Secondary equivalent above Q: Did you follow the 2015 Singapore General Election campaign? Forms of Participation in GE2015 Campaign 140% First Second 120% Political participation in campaigning low, 100% with rally attendance and chatting among highest forms outside of voting. 80% 74% 63% 60% 40% 20% 15% 16% 8% 4% 7% 4% 5% 3% 1% 2% 0% Vote Attend Political Rally Participate in a chat Persuade someone to Post blog/ on Facebook Campaign worker group vote Q: Which of the following did you participate in during the GE campaign? Views of Leadership: Findings Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, Emeritus Senior Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam from the PAP have the most favorable public assessments among the politicians surveyed. Around a quarter of Singaporeans are not familiar with many leading Singaporean politicians. Opposition politicians, in particular Chee Soon Juan and Tan Jee Say, have the highest unfavorability ratings by the public, although their favorability assessments are higher than their negative views indicating polarization of views of these leaders in the public. Most Singaporeans are unsure who will be the future prime minister of Singapore after Lee Hsien Loong. Those that do answer primarily indicate Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam. Perception towards Leadership Very favourable Somewhat favourable Somewhat unfavourable Very unfavourable Do not know this party Unsure/Refuse 100% 2% 7% 7% 4% 11% 11% 14% 11% 90% 30% 24% 19% 80% 39% 25% 32% 52% 70% 38% 36% 13% 41% 39% 13% 60% 12% 12% 50% 47% 12% 12% 34% 35% 9% 34% 27% 40% 12% 27% 30% 32% 22% 22% 28% 23% 9% 20% 19% 8% 21% 20% 7% 2% 17% 10% 13% 11% 13% 1% 9% 10% 10% 6% 10% 9% 5% 4% 7% 5% 0% 2% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2% Lee Hsien Loong Low Thia Khiang Yaacob Ibrahim Vivan Goh Chok Tong Tharman Tan Chuan-Jin Chee Soon Juan Lina Chiam Sylvia Lim Tan Jee Say Balakrishnan Shanmugaratnam Q: Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the following leaders? Future Prime Minister 70% 64% 60% Uncertainty over future political leadership 50% Nearly a fifth of Singaporeans select Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam 40% 30% 20% 19% 10% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 1% 0% Tharman Chan Chun Sing Teo Chee Hean Tan Chuan Jin Heng Swee Keat Yaacob Ibrahim Others Unsure/ Refuse Shanmugaratnam Q: Who do you think will be the next prime minister after Lee Hsien Loong? Views of Political Parties Among political parties, PAP has the most favorability among Singaporeans, with limited unfavorability.
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