THE POWER OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE INTERSCHOOL HONORS PROGRAM IN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Center for International Security and Cooperation Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies Stanford University By: George John Saba May 2015 Adviser: Dr. Coit D. Blacker Abstract Given that the national security adviser escapes Congressional approval and oversight and yet yields tremendous influence, it is important to understand why some advisers are more powerful than others. This thesis argues that the managerial style of the president best explains this difference in power. The president has considerable autonomy in establishing the power structure of his administration and can determine how much power the national security adviser will have. The view that the power of the national security adviser relates to the institutional growth of the presidency has merit, but a number of examples show that it is a weak explanation. Weak national security advisers have had many institutional resources (Jones), while strong national security advisers have operated with fewer (Kissinger and Brzezinski). While the personal relationship between the president and the national security adviser are extremely important in the amount of power the adviser has, poor relationships and strong advisers (Nixon and Kissinger) as well as good relationships and weak advisers (Bush and Rice) have occurred in the White House. A good personal relationship is important, but not necessary nor predictive of a strong national security adviser. The managerial style model explains the cases that the institutional growth and personal relationship frameworks cannot. This thesis demonstrates that the national security adviser role is a staff position and exists because the president finds it useful. Why some advisors have more power than others is most influenced by the president’s style of management. ii For My Parents iii Acknowledgements First of all, this thesis would not have happened without the endless love and support of my parents, Teresa and George Saba. If I grow up to be half the person that each of them are, I will consider myself successful. Their unconditional love, compassion, forgiveness and kindness inspire me to be more like them each and every day. I next thank my thesis adviser, Dr. Coit D. Blacker. During my junior year, I was recommended by a friend to reach out to Professor Blacker, because I was interested in learning more about the role of the national security adviser. Knowing how busy he was and that we had never met, I had few expectations that he would be willing to advise me. Nonetheless, I sent him an email asking for a meeting. Unlike most professors, he responded quickly and arranged a time to meet. During the meeting, I told him about my project and asked if he would consider advising my thesis or knew of anyone who might be a good fit. He quickly said that he would be happy to advise. From day one, Professor Blacker has impressed me with his willingness to go above and beyond for me. Given the many demands on his time, he could have easily refused or recommended another faculty member. Instead, he happily agreed to advise my thesis and has been my adviser throughout this year. The wisdom of his direction and advice has exceeded my expectations. This thesis would not have happened without his guidance and support. My first job at Stanford was with Professor Martha Crenshaw. She introduced me to research in the international security field by allowing me to help with the Mapping Militants Project. After completing a CISAC thesis in the Honors program, my CISAC experience has really come full circle with Professor Crenshaw. As one of the co-professors of CISAC along with Professor Blacker, she has been just as supportive of me as she was my first year. Despite being extremely busy, she has always had her door open to me. From day one, Professor Crenshaw questioned my definition of “power” and how I would be able to measure it. It is because of her suggestions, that I was encouraged to make my ranking of each adviser’s power more rigorous. Shiri Krebs has also been a huge help with this process. She has the difficult job of being the TA for the entire CISAC Honors program. That requires numerous papers to read and students to help. I especially appreciate her inviting me into her office to discuss my thesis during the final hours. She is extremely busy and has always put her students first. A big thanks to Dr. Amy Zegart who helped a lot by giving me one of her books, Flawed by Design. I really enjoyed attending the CISAC holiday party at her house and she made me, one of two students at the entire party, feel very welcome in her home. Her guidance with my thesis has been invaluable and I am grateful I for her suggestions for getting my thesis off the ground and steering it in the right direction. I would also like to thank all of my mentors over the last four years who have given me guidance and their valued time over the years: Colonel Joe Felter, Dr. Scott Sagan, Dr. David Holloway, Assemblyman Joe Nation, David Crane, Dr. Alyssa O’Brien, Dr. Al Camarillo, Dr. Susan Blumenthal, Robert Dallek, Dr. Milana Trounce, Senator Russ Feingold, Secretary Tom Perez, Councilman Michael Tubbs, Tiq Chapa and Ro Khanna. Also, if it were not for Stanford Baseball Program, I would not be at Stanford. I also would have not have made a trip to Austin, Texas. Before our first game at the University of Texas, Austin, we had a several hours free prior to game time. Realizing that the LBJ library was nearby, I iv asked my coaches permission to make a visit. As they always have supported my academic endeavors at Stanford, Coaches Mark Marquess and Dean Stotz encouraged me to go. They had also permitted me to forego the 2013 fall practice to participate in the Stanford in Washington program. I was recruited by them to attend and play baseball at Stanford; without their support, trust and confidence in me, it is unlikely I would be writing this thesis today. It is important to thank Dr. Condoleezza Rice who inspired me to write this thesis. I remember when I first told her about my thesis idea on the national security adviser. She responded, “Well, you know one!” Since then, she has been extremely supportive and generous with her time and advice. I am very fortunate she accepted me into her class and hired me as a research assistant. I will be forever grateful for the help of Professor Michael McFaul. He met with me on short notice to share his experience working for General Jones in the NSC. He was very generous with his time and thoroughly answered all of my questions. Some of his comments sparked an interest to conduct more interviews and have inspired me to continue researching Jones as a national security adviser. Professor McFaul has been generous to me from day one when I took his class this past fall. I am very thankful and grateful to him. It was the interview with Professor McFaul that inspired me to ask Ambassador Karl Eikenberry, leader of CISAC Honors College, about Jones’s role in the formation of U.S.- Afghanistan policy. Ambassador Eikenberry was extremely helpful in my formulation of my thesis topic this past September. I am very lucky and thankful that he responded so quickly to my email question regarding Jones and Afghanistan. I would also like to thank another, CISAC Honors College leader, Dr. Tom Fingar. He also helped me think through my thesis topic and set up some amazing meetings during out trip in Washington D.C. He has also put me in touch with the “Honest Broker”, General Scowcroft. I will be able to speak with the “best” national security adviser about the role in the near future. Although our conversation will come after the due date of this thesis, I plan to use his remarks and interview to continue working on this project. I greatly appreciate both General Scowcroft and Dr. Fingar for this opportunity to discuss the power of the national security adviser. I want to offer a huge thanks to Walter Pincus, whose class I have great memories of at Stanford in Washington. He was generous enough to send an email to Zbigniew Brzezinski on my behalf. Although Dr. Brzezinski was unable to answer all of my questions, he was able to provide me with a very powerful quote. I would like to thank my friends. Daniel Khalessi, winner of the 2013 Firestone award, is the inspiration for my CISAC experience. When I was a sophomore, I had the good fortune of taking a class with Daniel; we met in our TA’s (Arash Aramesh-another amazing mentor) office hours. Over a breakfast at the newly built Arrillaga Dining Hall, he told me about his honors thesis on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and raved about the CISAC program. Since that breakfast, he has been a mentor, coach, role model, and most importantly a great friend. I would not have applied for CISAC if it were not for him. Two of my best friends have taken time out of their busy schedules to read through and edit this thesis, Nick Ahamed and Chris Tutunjian. I met Nick on a CISAC sponsored Sophomore College trip, The Face of Battle. That class sparked my interest in U.S. foreign policy. After seeing my thesis presentation, Nick encouraged me to make comprehensive charts on each of the frameworks.