Trade Unions in the Balance ILO ACTRAV Working Paper by Jelle Visser Copyright © International Labour Organization 2019 First Published 2019

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Trade Unions in the Balance ILO ACTRAV Working Paper by Jelle Visser Copyright © International Labour Organization 2019 First Published 2019 TradeCHAPITRE Unions A in the Balance ILO ACTRAV Working Paper by Jelle Visser ACTRAV Bureau for Workers’ Activities Trade Unions in the Balance ILO ACTRAV Working Paper by Jelle Visser Copyright © International Labour Organization 2019 First published 2019 Publications of the International Labour Office enjoy copyright under Protocol 2 of the Universal Copyright Convention. Nevertheless, short excerpts from them may be reproduced without authorization, on condition that the source is indicated. For rights of reproduction or translation, application should be made to ILO Publications (Rights and Licensing), International Labour Office, CH-1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland, or by email: [email protected]. The International Labour Office welcomes such applications. Libraries, institutions and other users registered with a reproduction rights organization may make copies in accordance with the licences issued to them for this purpose. Visit www.ifrro.org to find the reproduction rights organization in your country. Trade Unions in the Balance ILO ACTRAV Working Paper. English edition. ISBN 978-92-2-134040-9 (web pdf) International Labour Office. Bureau for Workers’ Activities. The designations employed in ILO publications, which are in conformity with United Nations practice, and the presentation of material therein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Labour Office concerning the legal status of any country, area or territory or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers. The responsibility for opinions expressed in signed articles, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and publication does not constitute an endorsement by the International Labour Office of the opinions expressed in them. Reference to names of firms and commercial products and processes does not imply their endorsement by the International Labour Office, and any failure to mention a particular firm, commercial product or process is not a sign of disapproval. Information on ILO publications and digital products can be found at: www.ilo.org/publns. This publication was produced by the Document and Publications Productions Printing en Distribution Branch (PRODOC) of the ILO. Graphic and typographic design, manuscript preparation, copy editing, layout and composition, proofreading, printing, electronic publishing and distribution. PRODOC endeavours to use paper sourced from forests managed in an environmentally sustainable and socially responsible manner. Code: MAS-REP Table of contents FOREWORD ................................................................................................................................ 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: TRADE UNIONS IN THE BALANCE ..................................................... 7 INTRODUCTION: WHAT FUTURE FOR THE UNIONS? ................................................................ 9 I. THE STATE OF THE UNIONS AND THE FUTURE OF WORK .................................................. 13 1 / Employment and employees – how many union members? ................................................ 14 L 1.1 Economic development ......................................................................................................................... 14 L 1.2 World regions............................................................................................................................................ 15 2 / Changes in employment structure and jobs ......................................................................... 18 L 2.1 Deindustrialization .................................................................................................................................. 18 L 2.2 Decline of jobs or unions? ................................................................................................................... 22 L 2.3 Digitalization and technological change .......................................................................................... 24 L 2.4 Disengagement of young people? ..................................................................................................... 24 L 2.5 Unions in commercial and social services ...................................................................................... 27 L 2.6 The rise of female union membership ............................................................................................. 29 3 / Changing employment relationships .................................................................................... 30 L 3.1 Globalization and migration ................................................................................................................. 32 L 3.2 Migration .................................................................................................................................................... 32 L 3.3 Temporary and part-time workers .................................................................................................... 34 L 3.4 Own-account workers and self-employment ............................................................................... 38 L 3.5 Work and unions in the informal economy ..................................................................................... 40 L 3.6 Work and unions in the platform economy ..................................................................................... 43 4 / Summary ............................................................................................................................. 47 II. EXPLAINING THE DIFFERENCES IN UNIONIZATION .......................................................... 49 1 / Economic development and the informal economy .............................................................. 49 2 / Ethnic diversity .................................................................................................................... 50 3 / Labour rights violations ....................................................................................................... 52 4 / Institutional union security ................................................................................................... 53 5 / Institutional insecurity, competition and union fragmentation ............................................. 56 III. FOUR POSSIBLE FUTURES ................................................................................................ 59 1 / Marginalization ................................................................................................................... 59 2 / Dualization ........................................................................................................................... 62 3 / Substitution .......................................................................................................................... 66 4 / Revitalization ....................................................................................................................... 68 CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................... 71 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................... 72 ENDNOTES ............................................................................................................................... 79 Foreword This year the International Labour Organization (ILO) is celebrating its 100th anniversary. It is in preparation of this celebration that the Future of Work Initiative was launched in 2015 by the Director General Guy Ryder1 and based on the acknowledgement that the world of work is changing at a faster pace than ever before, creating critical challenges for workers and workers’ organizations worldwide.2 In June 2019, at the 108th Session of the International Labour Conference (ILC), ILO tripartite constituents adopted the ‘Centenary Declaration for the Future of Work’, which will guide the work of the organization and its constituents for years to come.3 The Centenary Declaration stresses the transformative change in the world of work driven by technological innovations, demographic shifts, environmental and climate change and globalization. It recognizes the historic advances in the past 100 years in the world of work. However, it also points towards the enormous challenges in front of us, such as persistent poverty, inequalities and injustices, conflict, disasters and other humanitarian emergencies that shape the world of work of today and constitute a threat for the workforce of tomorrow. As such, the Declaration stresses the urgency to act in shaping a fair, inclusive and secure future of work with full, productive and freely chosen employment and decent work for all. The Centenary Declaration calls upon the ILO to carry forward with unrelenting vigour its constitutional mandate for social justice by further developing its human-centred approach to the future of work, which puts workers’ rights and the needs, aspirations and rights of all people at the heart of economic, social and environmental policies. It also underlines the significance of promoting multilateralism and ensuring policy coherence within the multilateral system. The respect for all fundamental principles and rights at work (FPRW), including freedom of association and the right to collective bargaining, is an essential foundation of the ILO and key to successful policy and decision making. As the world of work is changing at an ever increasing
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