Transition of Ukraine to the Renewable Energy by 2050

TRANSITION OF UKRAINE TO THE RENEWABLE ENERGY BY 2050

RESULTS OF MODELING OF THE REFERENCE AND ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINE'S ENERGY SECTOR TRANSITION OF UKRAINE TO THE RENEWABLE ENERGY BY 2050

RESULTS OF MODELING OF THE REFERENCE AND ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINE'S ENERGY SECTOR

Y УДК 620.97(477)»…/2050»=111 П27

TRANSITION OF UKRAINE TO THE RENEWABLE ENERGY BY 2050 results of modeling of the reference and alternative scenarios for the development of energy sector

Authors of the report: Dr. Oleksandr Diachuk1, PhD in Engineering, Leading Research Officer, Lead of the authors’ group (introduction, sections: 1.3, 2.2, 2.4 – 2.6, 3, 4.1, 5); Dr. Maksym Chepeliev2, PhD in Economics (sections: 2.1, 6); Dr. Roman Podolets1, PhD in Economics, Leading Research Officer (sections: 2.1, 2.3, 4.2); Dr. Galyna Trypolska1, PhD in Economics, Senior Research Officer (sections: 1.2, 3.3, 4.1, 4.4); Dr. Vitalii Venger1, PhD in Economics, Leading Research Officer (section 4.3); Tetiana Saprykina1, Junior Research Officer (sections: 3.1, 3.2); Roman Yukhymets1, Research Officer (section 1.1).

1 State organization “Institute for Economics and Forecasting” of the National Academy of Sciences ofUkraine 2 Purdue University, USA

Edited by: Yuliia Oharenko, coordinator of the project “Scenarios for Ukraine’s Energy Sector Development by 2050”, and Oksana Aliieva, coordinator of the Climate Change and Energy Policy Program, Heinrich Boell Foundation Regional Office in Ukraine.

Design and page layout: Anastasiia Skokova.

П27 “Transition of Ukraine to the Renewable Energy by 2050” / О. Diachuk, М. Chepeliev, R. Podolets, G. Trypolska and oth. ; edited by Y. Oharenko and O. Aliieva // Heinrich Boell Foundation Regional Office in Ukriane. – Kyiv : Publishing house “Art Book” Ltd., 2017. – 88 p. ISBN 978-617-7242-39-9 The study “Transition of Ukraine to the Renewable Energy by 2050” was carried out in 2016-2017 by the State Organization “Institute for Economics and Forecasting” of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine with the support of the Heinrich Boell Foundation Regional Office in Ukraine and in cooperation with civil society organizations, public authorities, specialized in renewables business associations and independent experts. This study presents results of modeling of the reference and alternative scenarios for the development of Ukraine’s energy sector by 2050 and demonstrates how the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy can be achieved and what economic impacts it will have.

УДК 620.97(477)»…/2050»=111

ISBN 978-617-7242-39-9 © Heinrich Boell Foundation Regional Office in Ukraine, 2017 © State Organization “Institute for Economics and Forecasting” of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 2017 FOREWORD

Just recently we believed that we have an undepletable source international consensus on the need of transition to renewable of almost free energy made of coal and gas. Today we painfully energy for reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases and realise that the years of delays and disregard of the necessity counteracting climate change give us an insight about the necessary for finding other ways to meet energy needs of Ukraine have direction for modernization of the energy sector in Ukraine. caused the energy crisis. That is why we decided that the first step towards the The conflict in Donbas and the lack of access to our own energy transition in Ukraine should be a study, which will show deposits of coal, outdated units of Ukraine’s nuclear power that replacement of traditional energy sources with renewable plants, the lack of investment in energy innovations and latest ones is possible and most importantly will answer the question technologies, rising cost of energy resources make clear that on what we can do for this. there is no time to postpone the problem. Kind regards, At the same time, rapid development of the renewable Head of the Heinrich Boell Foundation energy, the reduction in prices of solar and wind technologies, Regional Office in Ukraine, Sergej Sumlenny their higher environmental and social standards as well as the

Ukraine has chosen energy independence as one of the energy brings additional investments into Ukraine’s economy priority directions for development. Therefore, today we are and opens up new horizons of development. confidently moving towards reduction and substitution of gas We are aware that the potential of clean energy consumption, increasing energy efficiency in various aspects of development is significant. According to the National life of the population and development of renewable energy. Renewable Energy Action Plan by 2020, we should provide There are many achievements in Ukraine. Over the past 11% of the energy needs of the state by renewable energy 3 years, about EUR 700 million have been invested in ‘‘green’’ sources in 2020. In addition to this, the share of ‘‘green’’ projects in Ukraine thanks to the consistent action of the energy in the total primary energy supply should be 25% in Government and the improvement of the legislative framework 2035. So, we continue to look for ways to accelerate the in the field of renewable energy. Almost EUR 400 million are transition to sustainable energy not only to achieve energy invested in the development of 1,670 MW of new thermal independence, but also to provide a decent future for future capacities using alternative energy sources. About EUR generations. That’s why this work is extremely important, as it 300 million were allocated by the business to set up 278 MW demonstrates the opportunities that are now open to Ukraine of renewable energy facilities. under the condition of intensifying the efforts of all market All these examples prove effectiveness of legislation, players towards sustainable energy and economic growth. which is the result of the fruitful cooperation between the

Government, the Parliament, the State Agency on Energy Best regards, Efficiency and Energy Saving and all market participants. Head of the State Agency on Energy Efficiency This is confirmed by the fact that Ukraine has begun a and Energy Saving of Ukraine global energy transition for future economic growth. Renewable

A key feature of today’s global economic processes Localization of these problems is not exclusive, is the rapid increase in the competitive struggle between therefore Ukraine should actively participate in low carbon countries for limited natural resources, the main ones being economic development initiatives, taking full care of present energy products and food. Almost no country in the world can and future generations. The task of scientists and experts in be fully self-sufficient with such resources. this context is to implement a comprehensive analysis of the As the results of many scientific studies show, the interdependencies between the conditions of use of natural use of traditional energy resources (coal, oil, gas) causes resources and the risks that it has for the environment. significant damage to the ecosystem of the planet and causes The State Organization ‘‘Institute for Economics and climate change, which in turn affects the health and living Forecasting’’ of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine conditions of the population and, as a consequence, the world is grateful for the proposal and support to the Heinrich and national economies. To address this problem, the world Boell Foundation Regional Office in Ukraine in conducting community is actively developing technologies and means of a scientific study on the possibilities of Ukraine to move to using renewable and clean energy sources such as wind, solar almost 100% use of renewable energy sources by 2050. Such a radiation, renewable bioenergy resources, and other in the transformation of the energy sector can become an important last decades. factor in the socio-economic development of Ukraine, which 3 will improve the living conditions of the population, transformation of energy and the economy, as well as increase competitiveness of the economy, resolving the challenges and threats, are not fully defined and examined as problem of an energy dependence, etc. Of course, such of today. However, we are sure that this movement is in the an “energy transition” will require significant resources right direction! (human, financial, technological), and will require the implementation of appropriate structural changes in Regards, Authors’ Group of the State Organization Ukraine’s economy. Presented results are the first step in “Institute for Economics and Forecasting” the “energy transition”. Further research should be carried of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine out considering that potential benefits of the long-term

ORGANIZATIONS THAT SUPPORT THE TRANSITION OF UKRAINE TO THE RENEWABLE ENERGY BY 2050

Ukrainian Climate Network

Ecoclub

4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Heinrich Boell Foundation Regional Office in Ukraine and the State Organization “Institute for Economics and Forecasting” of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine express their sincere gratitude to the organizations and experts who participated in the research project, provided consulting support, took part in discussions, assisted in data collection and verification:

Association of the Energy Auditors Regional Youth Environmental Union “Ecosphere” Vadym Lytvyn Oksana Stankevych-Volosianchuk

Bioenergy Association of Ukraine Rengy Development Georgiy Geletukha Narek Arutiunian Tetiana Zheliezna Rentechno Group “Center for Environmental Initiatives “Ecoaction” NGO Dmytro Lukomskyi Anna Akermann Iryna Holovko Renewable Energy Agency Serhii Klius Oleksii Epik Iryna Stavchuk Oleksandra Tryboi

“Ecoclub” NGO Resource Efficient and Cleaner Production Centre Andriy Martyniuk Ihor Shylovych Illia Yeremenko Oleksandra Kolmogortseva Anton Kleshchov FSC Ukraine Pavlo Kravets SEC “Biomass” Anna Starodub Yuri Matveev Olha Haidai Independent expert on storage technologies Ihor Pulvas State Agency on Energy Efficiency and Energy Saving of Ukraine ITW SYSTEMS Valerii Kotsiuba Yevhen Harkot Natalia Lahutina Olena Lenska Kyiv National University of Civil Engineering and Architecture State Road Transport Research Institute Mykhailo Kordiukov Oleksii Klymenko

Member of the Parliament of Ukraine Ukrainian Wind Energy Association Oleksii Riabchyn Andrii Konechenkov Mykola Savchuk National Ecological Centre of Ukraine Oleksii Pasiuk Women’s Energy Club of Ukraine Yurii Urbanskyi Valentyna Beliakova

NPC “Ukrenergo” WWF in Ukraine Oleksandr Karpenko Roman Volosianchuk Dmytro Kovalenko Serhii Korniush “Yedyna Planeta” NGO Borys Kostiukovskyi Oleh Savytskyi Serhii Shulzhenko

Oxygen Group Viacheslav Vasylenko Anait Ovanesian 5 SUMMARY

The adoption of the Paris Climate Agreement has The Conservative Scenario is considered to be a become a symbolic decision for the world community. It hypothetical scenario when characteristics of most energy will have a significant impact on the development of world technologies remain unchanged by 2050 compared to 2012 economy and energy as well as particular countries since it and hence there is almost no increase in efficiency of the aims to keep the average temperature rise on the planet well use of energy resources and only a very small part of the below 2°С (compared to the pre-industrial levels). To make it potential of RES is used. The Conservative Scenario is used as happen it is necessary for the energy sector to become carbon a reference for comparing alternative scenarios (Liberal and neutral (greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions must not exceed Revolutionary), in particular the effectiveness of measures the level of their absorption and / or capture on the planet). In and policies that stimulate technological change in the energy other words, a so-called ‘‘energy transition’’ from the fossil to sector and economy. renewable types of energy resources based on the principles Conditions of the Liberal Scenario include perfect of sustainable development is needed. It will stimulate a competition across the national energy market and its sectors. significant increase in energy efficiency and rational use of In the case of their implementation, it can be expected that energy resources. by 2050 the share of RES in the structure of the final energy Heinrich Boell Foundation Regional Office in Ukraine consumption (FEC) may exceed 30% and the need for energy has initiated development of an ambitious study on the resources will decrease due to the introduction of energy possibility of Ukraine’s energy sector transition to maximum efficiency measures while the economy will grow. Results share of renewable energy sources (RES) in final consumption of this scenario demonstrate competitiveness potential of the by 2050. The State Organization “Institute for Economics and renewable energy compared to the traditional one without the Forecasting” of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine use of additional incentives for the development of RES. that is the main partner of this research project has modeled In case target policy for the renewable energy three scenarios of the energy sector development. Modeling development (condition of the Revolutionary Scenario of was carried out using well-known economic and mathematical the ‘‘energy transition’’) is implemented, it is quite feasible models (TIMES-Ukraine model and Computable General to increase the share of RES in the structure of FEC up Equilibrium Model of Ukraine) that are used on a permanent to 91% in 2050 and to reduce the demand for energy basis by the Institute. resources by 42% compared to the Conservative Scenario The Сonservative Scenario that in fact is the reference due to the implementation of energy efficiency and energy one implies ‘‘freezing’’ of technologies at the present level. saving measures. In other words, the results of modeling The Liberal Scenario involves the development of energy of the Revolutionary Scenario indicate that Ukraine has a sector under conditions of free competition, while the sufficient renewable energy potential that can fully cover Revolutionary Scenario – the rapid development of RES. It possible future demand for energy resources and services, should be noted that these scenarios on the Ukrainian energy even if a high share of energy-intensive industry will be sector development are just scenarios, and are not strategies, maintained (metallurgy, chemical industry, etc.). In case plans, programs, etc. However, they can be taken as a basis for required technologies are fully or at least partially produced further study of practical steps towards the ‘‘energy transition’’ domestically, Ukraine can solve not only energy, environmental of Ukraine to the RES. and climate problems, but also the socio-economic ones.

6 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

AEA – Association of the Energy Auditors RES – Renewable energy sources CGE model – Computable General Equilibrium Model RNPP – Rivne Nuclear Power Plant CHPP – Combined Heat and Power Plant SAM – Social Accounting Matrix CP – Coefficient of Performance SCP – Statistical Classification of Products CTEA – Classifier of Types of Economic Activity SNRIU – State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine DSTU – National Standard of Ukraine SPP – Solar Power Plant EPR – European Pressurized Reactor SUNPP – South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant EU – European Union TFEC – Total Final Energy Consumption FEC – Final Energy Consumption TIMES-Ukraine – Economic-mathematical optimization model GDP – Gross Domestic Product TPES – Total Primary Energy Supply GFCF – Gross Fixed Capital Formation TPP – Thermal Power Plant GHG – Greenhouse gases TWh/a – Terawatt-hour per year GPP – Geothermal Power Plant UN – United Nations Gt – Gigaton (billion tons) USAID – U.S. Agency for International Development GW – Gigawatt UWEA – Ukrainian Wind Energy Association HEPP – Hydroelectric Power Plant VAT – Value Added Tax

HPP – Hydro Power Plant VVER – Water-Water Energetic Reactor HUS – Housing and Utility Service WASP – Wien Automatic System Planning Package ICE – Internal Combustion Engine WB – World Bank ICUF – Installed Capacity Utilization Factor IDSS NASU – Institute for Demography and Social Studies WPP – Wind Power Plant of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine ZNPP – Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant IEA – International Energy Agency IMF – International Monetary Fund IOT – Input-output table IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change KhNPP – Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant MBTU – Million British Thermal Units MW – Megawatt NECU – National Ecological Centre of Ukraine NPP – Nuclear Power Plant OECD – Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

PJ/a – Petajoule per year PPP – Purchasing Power Parity PSHP – Pumped Storage Hydropower plant RECP – Resource Efficient and Clean Production 7 LIST OF TABLES

1.1 Main energy balance indicators of the world, OECD, EU and A.5.1.2 Basic cost performance of heat and power plants.....63 Ukraine in 2014...... 16 A.5.1.3 Basic cost performance of boiler houses...... 64 2.1 Matrix of modeled scenarios...... 21 A.5.1.4 Basic cost performance of industrial boilers...... 65 2.2 Annual average Ukraine’s GDP growth rate in the period of A.5.2.1 Basic cost performance of technologies (including 2016-2050, %...... 22 boilers) for heating of buildings...... 65 2.3 Forecast of the population of Ukraine up to 2050, million A.5.2.2 Basic cost performance of technologies (including people...... 22 boilers) for hot water supply...... 66 2.4 Summary information on operating NPPs in Ukraine...... 23 A.5.2.3 Assumptions regarding investment needs and efficiency 3.1 Estimation of perspective technical characteristics of of measures for thermal modernization of buildings...... 66 on-shore WPPs...... 26 A.5.3.1 Basic cost performance of transport technologies....66 3.2 Potential of solar power, GW...... 26 A.5.4.1 Basic cost performance of industrial technologies...... 67 3.3 Cost of solar power plants, EUR/kW...... 26 A.6.1.1 Total primary energy supply, thousand toe...... 67 3.4 Bioenergy potential of Ukraine...... 27 A.6.1.2 Domestic extraction (production) of energy resources, 3.5 Basic costs of cogeneration technologies based on thousand toe...... 67 biomass...... 27 A.6.1.3 Import of energy resources, thousand toe...... 68 3.6 Basic costs of biomass TPPs...... 28 A.6.1.4 Final energy consumption, thousand toe...... 68 3.7 Basic costs of biomass CHPPs...... 28 A.6.1.5 Final energy consumption by sectors, thousand toe..68 3.8 Basic costs of biomass boiler houses...... 29 A.6.1.6 Final energy consumption by industry, thousand toe..68 3.9 Basic costs of industrial biomass boilers...... 29 A.6.1.7 Final energy consumption by households, thousand toe..69 3.10 Ratio of capacity of accumulators to capacity of SPP, %..31 A.6.1.8 Final energy consumption by transport, thousand toe..69 3.11 Ratio of capacity of accumulators to capacity A.6.1.9 Final energy consumption by service sector, thousand toe..69 of WPP, %...... 31 A.6.1.10 Final energy consumption by agriculture, thousand toe..69 3.12 Cost of storage technologies, EUR/kW...... 31 A.6.1.11 Production of electricity, billion kWh...... 70 4.1 Main characteristics of electric vehicles used in the TIMES- A.6.1.12 Installed capacity of thermal power plants, GW...... 70 Ukraine model...... 33 A.6.1.13 Capital investments in electric power industry 4.2 Amount of bioethanol production in Ukraine, facilities, million EUR...... 70 thousand tons...... 33 A.6.1.14 Total thermal energy production by type of fuel, 4.3 Main characteristics of biofuel vehicles used in the thousand toe...... 71 TIMES-Ukraine model...... 33 A.6.1.15 Energy consumption by boiler houses of central 4.4 Fast-payback measures in multi-apartment buildings...... 35 heating units (CHU) and autoproducers of thermal energy 4.5 Comprehensive rehabilitation of buildings (without (boiler houses and cogeneration plants), thousand toe...... 71 replacement of in-apartment systems)...... 35 A.6.1.16 Capital investments in thermal energy production, 4.6 Comprehensive rehabilitation of private houses...... 35 million EUR...... 71

4.7 Specific costs for implementation of energy saving A.6.1.17 Greenhouse gas emissions*, million tons CO2- measures in buildings...... 35 equivalent...... 71 4.8 Energy savings for heating depending on type of measures A.6.1.18 Energy intensity and carbon intensity...... 72 and category of buildings, %...... 36 A.6.1.19 Costs and investments, million EUR...... 72 4.9 Assumptions on investment needs and efficiency of A.6.2.1 Total primary energy supply, thousand toe...... 72 measures for thermal modernization of buildings...... 36 A.6.2.2 Domestic extraction (production) of energy resources, 4.10 Energy consumption subject to introduction of new thousand toe...... 72 technologies in industry...... 36 A.6.2.3 Import of energy resources, thousand toe...... 73 6.1 Impact of the energy policies implementation on the A.6.2.4 Final energy consumption, thousand toe...... 73 households’ income within Liberal Scenario...... 51 A.6.2.5 Final energy consumption by sectors, thousand toe..73 6.2 Impact of the energy policies implementation on the A.6.2.6 Final energy consumption by industry, thousand toe..73 households’ income within Revolutionary Scenario...... 51 A.6.2.7 Final energy consumption by households, thousand toe..74 A.1.1 Assessments of the main forecasted demand for energy A.6.2.8 Final energy consumption by transport, thousand toe..74 services (drivers) in the TIMES-Ukraine model...... 58 A.6.2.9 Final energy consumption by service sector, thousand toe..74 A.4.1 Sectoral structure of Ukraine’s GDP for the period A.6.2.10 Final energy consumption by agriculture, thousand toe..74 2015-2050...... 62 A.6.2.11 Production of electricity, billion kWh...... 75 A.5.1.1 Basic cost performance of heat plants...... 62 A.6.2.12 Installed capacity of thermal power plants, GW...... 75

8 LIST OF TABLES continuation

A.6.2.13 Capital investments in electric power industry facilities, million EUR...... 76 A.6.2.14 Total thermal energy production by type of fuel, thousand toe...... 76 A.6.2.15 Energy consumption by boiler houses of central heating units (CHU) and autoproducers of thermal energy (boiler houses and cogeneration plants), thousand toe...... 76 A.6.2.16 Capital investments in thermal energy production, million EUR...... 76

A.6.2.17 Greenhouse gas emissions, million tons CO2- equivalent...... 77 A.6.2.18 Energy intensity and carbon intensity...... 77 A.6.2.19 Costs and investments, million EUR...... 77 A.6.3.1 Total primary energy supply, thousand toe...... 77 A.6.3.2 Domestic extraction (production) of energy resources, thousand toe...... 78 A.6.3.3 Import of energy resources, thousand toe...... 78 A.6.3.4 Final energy consumption, thousand toe...... 78 A.6.3.5 Final energy consumption by sectors, thousand toe..78 A.6.3.6 Final energy consumption by industry, thousand toe..79 A.6.3.7 Final energy consumption by households, thousand toe..79 A.6.3.8 Final energy consumption by transport, thousand toe..79 A.6.3.9 Final energy consumption by service sector, thousand toe..79 A.6.3.10 Final energy consumption by agriculture, thousand toe..80 A.6.3.11 Production of electricity, billion kWh...... 80 A.6.3.12 Installed capacity of thermal power plants, GW...... 80 A.6.3.13 Capital investments in electric power industry facilities, million EUR...... 81 A.6.3.14 Total thermal energy production by type of fuel, thousand toe...... 81 A.6.3.15 Energy consumption by boiler houses of central heating units (CHU) and autoproducers of thermal energy (boiler houses and cogeneration plants), thousand toe...... 82 A.6.3.16 Capital investments in thermal energy production, million EUR...... 82

A.6.3.17 Greenhouse gas emissions, million tons CO2- equivalent...... 82 A.6.3.18 Energy intensity and carbon intensity...... 82 A.6.3.19 Costs and investments, million EUR...... 82 A.7.1 Sectoral effects of implementing energy policy measures within the Liberal Scenario...... 83 A.7.2 Sectoral effects of implementing energy policy measures within the Revolutionary Scenario...... 84 A.8.1 Impact of the implementation of energy policy measures on the sectoral labor force redistribution...... 85

9 LIST OF FIGURES

1.1 Global trends of investment in RES in 2005-2016...... 15 5.10 Final energy consumption by households under the Liberal 1.2 Forecast of the final energy consumption according to the Scenario...... 41 three global scenarios of energy sector development...... 15 5.11 Final energy consumption by households under 1.3 Dynamics of total primary energy supply in Ukraine...... 17 the Revolutionary Scenario...... 41 1.4 Final energy consumption in Ukraine by sectors...... 17 5.12 Final energy consumption by transport under the Liberal 1.5 Final energy consumption in Ukraine by types...... 17 Scenario...... 41 1.6 RES in the total final energy consumption in 2014...... 17 5.13 Final energy consumption by transport under the 1.7 Energy intensity of GDP (PPP)...... 17 Revolutionary Scenario...... 41 1.8 Carbon intensity of GDP (PPP)...... 17 5.14 Final energy consumption by service sector under the 2.1 Combination of economic and mathematical models to Liberal Scenario...... 42 forecast the energy sector development...... 19 5.15 Final energy consumption by service sector under the 2.2 Circulation of CGE model flows of Ukraine...... 20 Revolutionary Scenario...... 42 2.3 Forecast of prices for main energy resources (nominal 5.16 Final energy consumption by agriculture under the Liberal prices)...... 23 Scenario...... 42 3.1 Distribution of annual average daily electricity production 5.17 Final energy consumption by agriculture under the by SPPs (a) and WPPs (b) in Ukraine in 2013-2015...... 29 Revolutionary Scenario...... 43 3.2 Distribution of monthly average daily electricity production 5.18 Electricity generation...... 43 by SPPs in Ukraine in 2013-2015...... 30 5.19 Electricity generation under the Liberal Scenario...... 43 3.3 Distribution of monthly average daily electricity production 5.20 Electricity generation structure in 2012 and 2050 under by WPPs in Ukraine in 2013-2015...... 30 the Liberal Scenario...... 43 3.4 Daily electricity production by SPPs in Ukraine in 2013-2015..31 5.21 Structure of installed capacity of power plants under the 3.5 Daily electricity production by WPPs in Ukraine in 2013-2015..31 Liberal Scenario...... 44 3.6 Normalized schedule of power production by SPPs in 5.22 Structure of investment demands in electrical energy Ukraine in 2015...... 31 under the Conservative and Liberal Scenarios up to 2050.....44 3.7 Normalized schedule of power production by WPPs in 5.23 Electricity generation under the Revolutionary Scenario.44 Ukraine in 2015...... 31 5.24 Electricity generation structure in 2012 and 2050 under 4.1 Final energy consumption by sectors according to the Revolutionary Scenario...... 44 different scenarios Specific energy consumption by household 5.25 Structure of installed capacity of power plants under the consumers...... 34 Revolutionary Scenario...... 44 4.2 Specific energy consumption by household consumers for 5.26 Structure of investments in the power sector under the heating in Ukraine...... 34 Revolutionary Scenario up to 2050...... 45 5.1 Final energy consumption...... 39 5.27 Difference in investment demands in the power sector 5.2 Final energy consumption by sectors according to between the alternative and Conservative Scenarios...... 45 different scenarios Final energy consumption under the Liberal 5.28 Heat generation...... 45 Scenario...... 39 5.29 Heat generation under the Liberal Scenario...... 45 5.3 Structure of the final energy consumption under the Liberal 5.30 Structure of heat generation under the Liberal Scenario.45 Scenario...... 39 5.31 Heat generation under the Revolutionary Scenario...... 46 5.4 Final energy consumption under the Revolutionary 5.32 Structure of heat generation under the Revolutionary Scenario...... 39 Scenario...... 46 5.5 Structure of the final energy consumption under the 5.33 Total primary energy supply...... 46 Revolutionary Scenario...... 39 5.34 Primary energy intensity of GDP under the Liberal 5.6 Structure of the final energy consumption by Scenario...... 46 sectors...... 40 5.35 Primary energy intensity per person under the Liberal 5.7 Final energy consumption by sectors according to different Scenario...... 46 scenarios...... 40 5.36 Primary energy intensity of GDP under the Revolutionary 5.8 Final energy consumption by industry under the Liberal Scenario...... 47 Scenario...... 40 5.37 Primary energy intensity per person under the 5.9 Final energy consumption by industry under the Revolutionary Scenario...... 47 Revolutionary Scenario...... 40 5.38 Greenhouse gas emissions...... 47

10 LIST OF FIGURES continuation

5.39 Greenhouse gas emissions under the Liberal Scenario...47 5.40 Structure of greenhouse gas emissions under the Liberal Scenario...... 47 5.41 Greenhouse gas emissions under the Revolutionary Scenario...... 48 5.42 Structure of greenhouse gas emissions under the Revolutionary Scenario...... 48 5.43 Annual costs for functioning of the energy system...... 48 5.44 Difference between the annual costs for functioning of the energy system under the alternative and Conservative scenarios...... 48 6.1 Impact of the energy policies on GDP...... 50 6.2 Impact of the energy policies on the output...... 50 6.3 Impact of the energy policies on the gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)...... 50 6.4 Distribution of additional investments by source...... 51 6.5 Impact of the energy policies on the level of output by sector in 2050...... 52 6.6 Impact of the energy policies on the change in the number of employees by sector in 2050...... 53 A.2.1 Basic structure of energy system in the TIMES-Ukraine model...... 60

11 TABLE OF CONTENTS

FOREWORD...... 3 ORGANIZATIONS THAT SUPPORT THE TRANSITION OF UKRAINE TO THE RENEWABLE ENERGY BY 2050...... 4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...... 5 SUMMARY...... 6 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS...... 7 LIST OF TABLES...... 8 LIST OF FIGURES...... 10 INTRODUCTION...... 13

1 DEVELOPMENT OF THE ENERGY SECTOR IN THE WORLD AND IN UKRAINE...... 14 1.1 Climate Policy as the Driving Force of Energy Changes.....15 1.2 Global Scenario of Transition to RES...... 15 1.3 Current State of Ukraine’s Energy Sector...... 16

2 METHODOLOGY...... 18 2.1 General Methodological Approach...... 19 2.2 Definition and Conditions of Energy Sector Development Scenarios...... 20 2.3 Macroeconomic Conditions and Assumptions...... 22 2.4 Demographic Conditions and Assumptions...... 23 2.5 Forecast of Energy Resources’ Prices...... 23 2.6 Assumptions on Nuclear Energy...... 23

3 POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES IN UKRAINE...... 25 3.1 Wind Energy...... 26 3.2 Solar Power...... 26 3.3 Bioenergy...... 26 3.4 Hydropower...... 27 3.5 Balancing WPP and SPP...... 29

4 NATIONAL TECHNOLOGY PROSPECTS...... 32 4.1 Transport Sector...... 33 4.2 Buildings Sector...... 34 4.3 Industry...... 36 4.4 Agriculture...... 37

5 DEVELOPMENT OF ENERGY SECTOR IN UKRAINE UNDER DIFFERENT SCENARIOS UP TO 2050...... 38 5.1 Final Energy Consumption...... 39 5.1.1 Industry...... 40 5.1.2 Households...... 40 5.1.3 Transport...... 41 5.1.4 Service Sector...... 42 5.1.5 Agriculture...... 42 5.2 Electricity Generation...... 43 5.3 Heat Generation...... 45 5.4 Total Primary Energy Supply...... 46 5.5 Relative Indicators of Energy Sector Development...... 46 5.6 Greenhouse Gas Emissions...... 47 5.7 Total Costs and Investments...... 48

6 ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF UKRAINE’S ENERGY SECTOR DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS UNTIL 2050...... 49 6.1 Macroeconomic Impacts...... 50 6.2 Impacts for Households...... 51 6.3 Sectoral Impacts...... 51

CONCLUSIONS...... 54 ANNEXES...... 57

12 INTRODUCTION

Depletion of traditional types of energy resources, agrravation The energy intensity of industrial products is significantly of a negative environmental impact of energy sector and, reduced due to the modernization and robotization of the consequently, strengthening of environmental standards, production processes. The possibilities of electricity storage are significant fluctuations in energy prices, objective to strengthen increasing. There is a progress in the digitalization of all spheres energy and economic security, the politicization of energy of energy (IT technologies, smart grids, etc). Investments in the supplies and other factors have led to the urgent need to revise research and development of ‘‘clean’’ technologies and the current state in the energy sector and look for opportunities construction of new renewable energy facilities are steadily for its modernisation and policy review. increasing. For instance, the RES sector set a new record in Ukraine is one of many countries that are suffering from 2015. It attracted USD 312.2 billion of investments that is two all of these problems. Its dependence on the import of expensive times more than the investments in the gas and coal sectors energy resources leads to considerable socio-economic problems. (USD 130 billion)4. An extremely high degree of the infrastructure depreciation Unfortunately, Ukraine lags behind not only the (in particular the one of energy sector) and consequently a economically developed countries of the world (including the very low efficiency of energy resources use are the factors countries of the Visegrad Group) but also the global index in explaining the position of Ukraine among the countries with terms of the RES use. The share of RES in the global total final high indexes of energy intensity of the economy. Thus, the energy consumption was amounted to 20% in 2014, while in energy intensity of Ukraine’s GDP was 2.8 times higher than the Ukraine this figure was only 4.2%5. corresponding indexes of OECD and Visegrad countries in 2014. However, Ukraine has a lot of prerequisites for the A similar situation is observed with the GDP carbon intensity. ‘‘energy transition’’ already. In particular, the level of investment Moreover, Ukraine has one of the highest mortality rates1 due in renewable energy is increasing. There are corresponding to the illnesses associated with air pollution as a result of the economic incentives (‘‘feed-in tariff’’, cost recovery programs energy wastefulness and the lack of modern requirements for for implementation of energy efficiency measures) and the ecologically acceptable functioning of the energy system with State Agency on Energy Efficiency and Energy Saving of Ukraine a careful attitude towards the environment. promotes more active development of the renewable energy. At the same time, Ukraine and the world have faced the Ukraine is a member of the European Energy Community. It problem of climate change that has been observed since the signed and ratified the Association Agreement with the EU, middle of the 20th century and is a consequence of human undertaking the commitment to increase energy efficiency, to activity2. 195 countries of the world, including Ukraine, decided develop renewable energy, to reduce emissions of greenhouse to approve the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015. It is aimed at gases and pollutants. strengthening of the global response to the threat of climate The Greenpeace in collaboration with the Institute change in the context of sustainable development and efforts of Engineering Thermodynamics, Systems Analysis and to eradicate poverty, in particular by limiting the growth of the Technology Assessment (DLR), Global Wind Energy Council global average temperature well below 2°С compared to the and SolarPower Europe has already developed a fully realistic pre-industrial level and making efforts to limit the temperature long-term scenario for the complete energy supply based on growth to 1.5°С. However, in 2015-2016 the average global the RES (Energy [R]evolution Scenario)6 for some countries. The temperature exceeded the index of the 1850 by more than Heinrich Boell Foundation Regional Office in Ukraine initiated 1°С3. That is why the immediate actions are needed in order to a similar research for Ukraine being inspired by their results. achieve the goal of the Paris Agreement for the effective and Scientists of the State Organization “Institute for Economics and proper respond to the problem of the GHG global emissions. Forecasting” of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, One of the most complex and realistic ways to solve that is the main partner of this study, has modeled three these problems and to adapt to the climate change is the scenarios of the energy sector development. Obtained results implementation of the complete ‘‘energy transition’’ from fossil are not the strategy for Ukraine’s energy sector development, fuels to renewables. It’s really possible as today’s development although they can be used for the formulation of relevant of high-tech and science-intensive technologies has already long-term strategic documents. Also these scenarios are not opened up real prospects for renewable energy the predictions for the future of energy sector of Ukraine. This There is already seen a movement towards the study only model pathways how Ukraine can implement the decarbonisation of the energy sector. Thus, energy-generating ‘‘energy transition’’ under the given conditions and if we set facilities of the renewable energy are becoming more and the goal to reach 90-100% of the energy supply of the country more competitive in comparison with the ones that use fossil with RES in 2050. In this report readers can find out about fuels, although the real environmental cost of the electricity the results of the research and see how the state’s economy from fossil fuels is not yet taken into account. Production will change and what will be the consequences for reducing of electric vehicles is continually growing and their models of social inequality, the environmental protection and the variety is developing. There are available technologies for fulfillment of international obligations if Ukraine decides to the significant increase of the buildings’ energy efficiency. perform ‘‘energy transition’’ to clean and safe energy.

1 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/sep/27/more-than-million-died-due-air-pollution-china-one-yea 2 Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. – Available at: http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_ALL_FINAL.pdf [in English]. 3 2016 Climate Trends Continue to Break Records. – Available at: https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/climate-trends-continue-to-break-records 4 http://www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/GSR_2016_Full_Report.pdf 5 The calculations are made by authors on the base of the International Energy Agency's data 6 http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/campaigns/climate-change/energyrevolution/ 13 DEVELOPMENT OF THE ENERGY SECTOR IN THE WORLD AND IN UKRAINE

Climate Policy Global Scenario Current State 1 as the Driving Force of Energy Changes of Transion to RES of Ukraine's Energy Sector ock t s : Shuer o Phot 1.1 Climate Policy as the Driving Force of Energy Changes 1.2 Global Scenario of Transition to RES The adoption of the Paris Climate Agreement7 in 2015 has In September 2015 the Greenpeace10, an international become a landmark decision that has a significant impact environmental organization, together with the Institute on the development of both the world economy and energy of Engineering Thermodynamics, Systems Analysis and and the economies and energy sectors of separate countries. Technology Assessment (DLR), the Global Wind Energy First of all, the sector of electricity and heat production (e.g. Council and SolarPowerEurope presented an updated study the intensive development of the distributive generation of on modeling of the global energy transition scenarios11. These electricity and heat, the smart grids, etc.) as well as industry scenarios foresee a gradual transition from the fossil fuel (the widespread use of robotics and technologies that use consumption to the 100% use of RES by 2050. They are aimed electricity for production) and transport (gradual phase-out to keep the global warming within 2°C. of oil products and the use of electricity, hydrogen, biofuels, A combination of forecasts about population and etc.) are undergoing the transformation that is aimed for GDP growth and future energy intensity indexes that is decarbonisation. Private residential sector is moving towards used to model the Reference Scenario of the energy sector energy self-sufficiency through wider use of RES, energy development indicates an increase in global demand for storage technologies and a significant reduction of energy energy. According to the Reference Scenario, total final energy needs without losing the comfort of buildings. consumption is expected to increase by 65% from the current In its latest World Energy Outlook 20168 the level (from 326,900 PJ/a in 2012 to 539,000 PJ/a in 2050). International Energy Agency (IEA) states that if countries According to the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, final energy comply with their commitments undertaken during the consumption will decrease by 12% (Figure 1.2) compared to preparation and ratification of the Paris Agreement (nationally the current consumption and will reach 289,000 PJ/a by 2050. in PJ/a Efficiency Other sectors Industry Transport determined contributions), then by 2040: Transpor Industry Other sector Efficiency • electricity production from RES will reach 37% in the overall 6002012 REF 90119 106313 130428 0 E[R] 90119 106313 130428 0 structure of electricity generation (compared to 23% now); ADV E[R] 90119 106313 130428 0 2020 REF 103044 129641 146901 0 • almost 60% of all new capacities will be using RES and 500 E[R] 96169 122283 137762 23372 ADV E[R] 95181 122283 137769 24353 the majority of the renewable energy facilities will be 2025 REF 112778 140466 157332 0 competitive without any subsidies; E[R] 94941 122458 137068 56109 400 ADV E[R] 91510 122441 137092 59533 • the number of electric cars will be increased from 1.3 2030 REF 122511 151290 167789 0 E[R] 91918 120769 134542 94361 to 150 million units; 300 ADV E[R] 85457 121143 135605 99385 2040 REF 137518 170465 187404 0 • the demand for gas will be increased by 50%, replacing E[R] 79738 110931 128443 176275 the coal in the global energy balance. ADV E[R] 67846 111788 130811 184942 2002050 REF 148418 186496 203589 0 E[R] 69735 98343 120426 249999 In case of realization of these forecasts, CO2 emissions from functioning of the global energy sector will annually ADV E[R] 56534 98630 123788 259551 100 1000 increase by an average 0.5%, whereas since 2000 they ПДж/рік grew by an average 2.4%. According to the IEA, even such in 1000 PJ/a Одиниця виміру: 1000 ПДж/рік 0 ТранспорПромислов Інші секториЕнергоефективність 2012 REF 90.12 106.31 130.43 0.00 deceleration in the growth of CO2 emissions is absolutely REF E[R] ADV REF E[R] ADV REF E[R] ADV REF E[R] ADV REF E[R] ADV REF E[R] ADV E[R] E[R] 90.12 106.31E[R] 130.43 E[R]0.00 E[R] E[R] E[R] insufficient to achieve the main goal of the Paris Climate ADV E[R] 90.12 106.31 130.43 0.00 2020 REF 2012 103.04 2020129.64 146.902025 0.00 2030 2040 2050 Agreement – to keep the average temperature increase E[R] 96.17 122.28 137.76 23.37 on the planet well below 2°C compared to pre-industrial ADV E[R] 95.18 122.28 137.77 24.35 Figure2025 REF 1.2 Forecast112.78 140.47 of the157.33 final0.00 energy consumption according levels. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate E[R] 94.94 122.46 137.07 56.11 to theADV three E[R] global91.51 122.44 scenarios137.09 of59.53 energy sector development Change (IPCC), the humanity still has a so-called “carbon 2030 REF 122.51 151.29 167.79 0.00 9 Note: REF - E[R]Reference Scenario,91.92 E[R] 120.77- Energy [R]evolution134.54 Scenario,94.36 ADV E[R] - Advanced Energy [R]evolution Scenario. budget” the volume of which is no more than 1 thousand Gt Units: 1000ADV PJ/a. E[R] Source: Energy85.46 [R]evolution.121.14 135.61A sustainable 99.39world Energy Outlook 2015. 100% renewable energy for all. СО since today. In other words, the humanity must transit 2040 REF 137.52 170.47 187.40 0.00 2 E[R] 79.74 110.93 128.44 176.28 even more actively towards the carbon neutral development, ADVAt E[R] the67.85 moment111.79 130.81 RES provide184.94 21% of the world heat 2050 REF 148.42 186.50 203.59 0.00 in particular through the development of RES. demand,E[R] mainly69.74 by98.34 biomass.120.43 250.00 The role of biomass can be Investments play an important role in the development diminishedADV E[R] by56.53 the 98.63development123.79 259.55 of other technologies in the of RES. In 2015 global investments in RES set another record – future. For example, the role of solar collectors, geothermal USD 312.2 billion (Figure 1.1) and exceeded the investments in energy and hydrogen energy will increase in industry especially the gas and coal sectors more than twice (USD 130 billion). In after 2030. According to the basic and advanced Energy 2016 investments dropped to USD 241.6 billion, however, they [R]evolution Scenarios, RES will provide respectively 42% and exceeded the level2005 of 2013.2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201443%2015 of the2016 world demand for heat in 2030 and 86% / 94% in Solar energy 16.1 21.9 38.9 61.3 64 103.6 154.9 140.6 119.1 143.9 171.7 113.7 Ocean energy Geothermal energy Biofuel Hydropower <50 MW Wind energy 29 39.7 61.1 74.8 79.7 101.6 84.2 84.4 89 108.52050.124.2 The112.5 energy efficiency measures will reduce demand for Biomass Biomass 9.7 Wind 12.8energy 23 17.5 Solar energy15 16.6 19.9 14.9 12.4 10.8heat6.7 by 33%6.8 in 2050 according to the Reference Scenario. The Hydropower <50 MW 7.3 7.5 6.4 7.6 6.2 8.1 7.5 6.4 5.6 6.4 3.5 3.5 Biofuel 9.6 28.6 27.4 18.4 10.2 10.5 10.6 7.2 5.2 5.3estimated3.5 2.2 investment volume for the heat production based 300 Geothermal energy 1 1.4 1.7 1.7 2.8 2.9 3.9 1.6 2.9 2.9on the2.3 RES2.7 by 2050 will be USD 16.3 billion. According to the Ocean energy 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 Total 72.8 112.7 159.3 181.4 178.3 243.6 281.2 255.5 234.4 278.2improved312.2 241.6 scenario, it will be necessary to invest a little bit 250 more money for substitution of natural gas with synthetic fuels and / or hydrogen. 200 According to the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, the demand for electricity will increase despite the increasing 150 efficiency in all sectors. Total demand for electricity will increase from 18,860 TWh/a in 2012 to 37,000 TWh/a in

100 2050. Thanks to the energy saving measures, the generation of 16,700 TWh/a could be avoided. The transition to the carbon- free energy system with 100% of RES in accordance with the 50 Advanced Energy [R]evolution Scenario will lead to further increase of demand for electricity (up to 40,000 TWh/a in 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2050) due to the electrification of industry, transport and part of the heat energy sector. About 8,100 TWh will be used by Figure 1.1 Global trends of investment in RES in 2005-2016 electric vehicles and by rail in 2050, 5,100 TWh – for hydrogen Units: USD billion. Source: prepared by the authors according to the data of REN21, http://www.ren21.net/wp-content/ uploads/2017/06/17-8399_GSR_2017_Full_Report_0621_Opt.pdf. production and 3,600 TWh – for synthetic liquids production.

7 http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php 8 World Energy Outlook 2016. Executive summary [Electronic resource] / Official website of the Internation Energy Agency – Available at: https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WorldEnergyOutlook2016ExecutiveSummaryEnglish.pdf 9 1 gigaton is 1 billion tons 10 http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/ 11 ‘‘Energy [R]evolution. A sustainable world Energy Outlook 2015. 100% renewable energy for all’’. Greenpeace International, Global wind energy Council, Solar PowerEurope September 2015 15 Energy efficiency in the heat supply sector is more 15 years. By 2030 the wind energy sector can grow from the important than in the power sector. According to the Energy current 700 thousand jobs to 7.8 million jobs (twice as much [R]evolution Scenarios, due to the significant increase of as the global oil and gas industry has now) but the first changes energy efficiency compared to the Reference Scenario the should begin today. The number of people employed in the consumption of 76,000 PJ/a by 2050 could be avoided. It will coal industry will significantly decrease by 2030. According to be possible due to the thermal renovation of existing buildings, the Advanced Energy [R]evolution Scenario, the world energy the “passive climatisation” of new buildings and the useof sector will have 35.5 million jobs in 2020 and 29.6 million highly efficient air conditioning systems. according to the Reference one. These figures can reach Electricity generation from RES will provide more than respectively 45.2 million and 29.1 million jobs in 2025. The just a compensation for phase out of electricity generation number of jobs will be respectively 46.1 million and 27.3 million from fossil fuels and nuclear power. About 92% of the world’s in 2030. By 2030 the 86% of jobs in the energy sector will be electricity will be produced with RES in terms of the Energy connected with RES. [R]evolution Scenario by 2050. In 2020 the share of electricity produced with RES will be 31%, in 2030 – 58%. The installed 1.3 Current State of Ukraine’s Energy Sector capacity of RES is 7,800 GW in 2030 and 17,000 GW by 2050. According to the Advanced Scenario, in order to ensure the Fascinating prospects of the RES development that are generation of 100% of the electricity from RES in 2050 itis presented in the global Energy [R]evolution Scenario inspire necessary to have 23,600 GW of installed capacity of RES to investigate whether a similar scenario for Ukraine’s energy objects. By 2020 the RES capacities will be mainly increased sector development is actually possible, which in fact is the because of the wind and solar energy and after 2020 – because subject of this research (results are presented in the Section 5). of the geothermal and ocean energy. The role of smart grids, However, before starting to model the scenarios of the long- demand side management and energy storage capacities will term development of the Ukrainian energy sector, it is worth grow. The costs for electricity generation will slightly increase to analyze its current state. The results of such analysis are (compared to the Reference Scenario by 2030) according to presented in this Section. the two scenarios of Energy [R]evolution, but the difference A comparison of Ukraine’s and world energy balances will be insignificant – about 0.002 USD/kWh (without taking as well as the energy balance of the OECD and the EU countries into account the potential costs of joining, balancing and is given in the Table 1.1. It can be noted that in Ukraine the storage of energy). The electricity generation from RES will use of coal significantly exceeds the relative indicators of the be cost efficient in all regions of the world beginning from OECD countries and the world. Instead, the use of oil and its 2030. The average world electricity generation cost will be products in Ukraine is much lower than the indicators in the 0.025 USD/kWh by 2050 (lower than in the Reference Scenario). world and especially in the OECD countries. This is explained According to the Advanced Scenario, it supposed that there will by the fact that in Ukraine oil products are used mainly in be larger reduction in costs due to the scale effect. the transport sector and almost unused in the electricity and The world energy costs in the energy sector will amount heat generation as it happens in the OECD countries. On the to USD 48 trillion in accordance with the Energy [R]evolution other hand, in Ukraine the consumption of oil products in the Scenario. It is 50% more than planned in the Reference Scenario transport sector is lower than the average indicators of the (USD 24.5 trillion) by 2050. In accordance with the Advanced OECD countries. Scenario, the investments by 2050 should be USD 64.6 billion. The dynamics of the total primary energy supply (TPES) According to the Reference Scenario, half of the investments in Ukraine is shown in Figure 1.3. Ukraine significantly reduced will be directed to conventional power plants and the other the use of energy resources (first of all, the natural gas) over half to RES. According to both scenarios of the Energy the past decade. TPES decreased by almost 20% compared [R]evolution, 95% of investments will be directed to RES and to 2005 in 2013, and by more than a quarter in 2014. Of the rest to the natural gas power plants. In comparison with course, the decrease of TPES in 2014 is primarily explained by the fossil fuels, the RES power plants (except the biomass) military and political conditions and hence the socio-economic don’t need raw materials / fuel, that’s why these savings may situation in Ukraine. be directed to investments in RES, while the prices for fossil Since 2007 the supply of oil was replaced with the fuels will increase. import of oil products. This is due to the decline of domestic The RES sector is a potential source of many new jobs. oil refinery. The world’s coal industry employs 10 million workers now. The final energy consumption (FEC) in Ukraine The photovoltaics can provide the same number of jobs in (Figure 1.4) was characterized by a drop of the share of industry Table 1.1 Main energy balance indicators of the world, OECD, EU and Ukraine in 2014

World ОЕСD EU Ukraine Total primary energy supply thousand thousand thousand thousand % % % % toe toe toe toe Coal 3,918,491 28.6% 1,012,463 19.2% 268,433 17.2% 35,576 33.7% Crude oil 4,349,857 31.8% 2,061,714 39.1% 591,918 37.8% 3,043 2.9% Oil products* -64,557 -0.5% -180,603 -3.4% -82,930 -5.3% 7,645 7.2% Gas 2,900,579 21.2% 1,343,845 25.5% 342,846 21.9% 33,412 31.6% Nuclear energy 661,353 4.8% 516,273 9.8% 228,456 14.6% 23,191 21.9% Hydroenergy 334,945 2.4% 120,471 2.3% 32,248 2.1% 729 0.7% Geothermal, solar, etc. 181,072 1.3% 98,024 1.9% 40,069 2.6% 134 0.1% Biofuel and waste 1,412,908 10.3% 299,787 5.7% 141,641 9.1% 1,934 1.8% Electricity* 2,383 0.0% 395 0.0% 1,333 0.1% -725 -0.7% Heat energy 2,096 0.0% 899 0.0% 962 0.1% 745 0.7% TOTAL 13,699,127 100% 5,273,268 100% 1,564,975 100% 105,684 100%

* Negative values mean that exports exceed the amount of imports and domestic production. Source: prepared by authors on the base of the International Energy Agency’s data. 16 Biofuel and Geothermal, Share of RES Heat Electricity 2005 2006 Biofuel2007 and wastes2008 2009 Wind 2010and solar energy2011 2012 Hydroelectric2013 power2014 TPES Other Hydropower RES FEC NES Proper Losses Biofuel and wastes Geothermal, solar, etc. wastes Hydropowersolar, etc. Other Share of RES in GFEC in GFEC Coal and peat 37289 40093 42657 41798 35870 38251 41490 42718 41427 35576 World 13699127 11770202 1412908 181072 334945 1928925 9424689 827520 -833439 -224291 20.0% Nuclear energy Crude oil Natural gas 19849 15485 Oil 14926products 11166 11384 Crude11497 oil 9100 5050 Coal and3978 peat 3043 100% Oil products -5087 -695 291 3202 2518 1682 3360 6559 5928 7645 OECD 5273268 4754986 299787 98024 120471 518282 3628863 343033 -336495 -67041 14.0% Natural gas 67445 58235 55586 52805 40789 55229 46841 43018 39444 33412 EU 1564975 1351017 141641 40069 32248 213958 1095071 99502 -78042 -24958 19.5% 160000 Nuclear energy 23130 23513 24273 23566 21764 23387 23672 23653 21848 23191 90% Ukraine 105683 102886 1934 134 729 2797 61460 3500 -4906 -3345 4.2% Hydroelectric power 1064 1108 872 990 1026 1131 941 901 1187 729 Poland 94018 84914 8218 698 188 9104 65271 5323 -5667 -1424 13.6% Wind and solar energy 3 3 4 4 4 4 10 53 104 134 Czech Republic 41208 37325 3480 239 164 3883 24935 2908 -1798 -918 15.7% 140000 80% Biofuel and wastes 262 582 1508 1610 1433 1476 1563 1522 1875 1934 Hungary 22836 20767 1806 237 26 2069 16795 1676 -879 -515 12.5% Electricity -718 -898 -789 -579 -367 -349 -541 -987 -851 -725 Slovakia 15948 14376 1145 65 362 1572 9812 919 -1334 -207 15.1% Heat 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 745 70% 120000 Total primary energy supply 143237 137426 139328 134562 114421 132308 126436 122487 115940 105684 60% 100000 50% 80000 40% 60000 30% 40000 20.0% 19.5% 15.7% 20% 14.0% 13.6% 12.5% 15.1% 20000 10% 4.2% 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0% EU OECD World

Одиниця виміру: тисяч тонн нафтового еквівалентa Poland Czech

Figure 1.3 Dynamics of total primary energy supply in Ukraine Ukraine Slovakia Hungary Republic Units: thousand toe. Source: prepared by authors on the base of the International Energy Agency’s data. during 2005-2014 (from 45% in 2005 to 34-35% in 2013- Figure 1.6 RES in the total final energy consumption in 2014 Source: calculated by authors on the base of the International Energy Agency’s data. 2014), more or less stable share of population on the level of Використано дані станом на 2014 рік. 35% (except for 2007-2008, when the share of population in Despite decrease of energy intensity of GDP and specific the structure of FEC dropped to 29-30%). It is worth noting GHG emissions, Ukraine’s economy remains to be extremely the steady growth of the service sector in the final energy energy-intensive in comparison not only with the developed countries, but also with its European neighbors, in particular, consumption structure2005 2006 from2007 2008 3%2009 in 201020052011 to2012 8-9%2013 in2014 2012-2014. Industry 33219 32769 32852 30942 22629 25327 26253 24845 21864 20570 the countries of the Visegrad Four (Figure 1.7). Agriculture Service sector Transport Population Industry Total Population 24229 25383 23001 22845 22084 23813 23604 23466 23495 20384 Economically developed countries (OECD) Transport 11774 11638 15417 15141 12396 12627 12611 11448 11280 10327 Ukraine 100 Service sector 2182 2695 4956 4952 4176 4643 4802 5037 5745 4663 Countries of the Visegrad Group World Agriculture 2626 1816 2003 2095 1981 2027 2236 2184 2234 2012 EU-28 Total 74030 74301 78229 75975 63266 68437 69506 66980 64618 57956 ЗППЕ/ВВП ПКС 90 0.5 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 74 74 78 76 Ukraine 0.43 0.38 0.36 0.34 0.34 0.38 0.34 0.33 0.31 0.31 Economically developed countries (OECD) 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.11 80 0.5 Countries of the Visegrad group 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.11 63 68 70 67 65 Одиниця виміру: мільйон тонн нафтового еквівалентa World 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 70 0.4 EU-28 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09 58 60 0.4

0.3 50

0.3 40 0.2 30 0.2 20 0.1 10 0.1 0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Figure 1.4 Final energy consumption in Ukraine by sectors Figure 1.7 Energy intensity of GDP (PPP) Одиниця виміру: тис. н.е. / 1000 дол. США. Використано дані станом на 2010 рік. Units: thousand toe. Source: prepared by authors on the base of the International Energy Agency’s data. Units: thousand toe / USD 1,000 (2010). Source: prepared by authors on the base of International Energy Agency’s data http:// energyatlas.iea.org/?subject=1378539487. A decrease in the share of gas from 38-39% in 2005-2008 to 32% in 2012-2014 and an increase in the share Despite the fact that the level of energy intensity of of electricity from 14% in 2005 to 19% in 2014 can be noted Ukraine’s GDP decreased almost by one half from 2000 to (Figure 1.5) in the structure of FEC by the types of energy 2014, it is still 2.8 times higher than corresponding indicators of countries of the OECD and the Visegrad Group. A similar resources. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Heat Coal Electricity 10672 Biofuel11107 and10531 wastes 9636 Gas7527 7886 Oil products8846 9213 8314Oil 8785 Coal Total situation is observed with the level of carbon intensity of Oil 23 18 13 10 11 Oil products 11103 11725 12437 12034 10736 11286 11430 11346 10719 9694 GDP (PPP). According to data of 2014 it is 2.4 and 2.6 times 90 Gas 29068 28518 29944 29192 22583 24284 24543 21697 20943 18305 higher than the indicators of the OECD and the Visegrad Biofuel74 and wastes74 78223 54376 1145 1207 1004 984 1040 1030 1118 1201 80 Electricity 10587 11149 11518 11612 10261 11526 12023 11839 11828 11041 countries and 3.8 times higher than in the EU(Figure 1.8). Heat 12563 11245 12670 12306 11163 12481 11951 11865 11702 8933 Total 74 239 74 305 78 245 75 63987 63 287 6868 457 69 70844 66 990 6764 624 57 95965 Ukraine Economically developed countries (OECD) 70 Countries of Visegrad Group World 58 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 60 Одиниця виміру: мільйон тонн нафтового еквівалентa EU-28 Ukraine 0.88 0.84 0.79 0.74 0.74 0.76 0.75 0.74 0.71 0.68 Economically developed countries (OECD) 0.31 0.30 0.30 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.26 Countries of the Visegrad group 0.42 0.41 0.38 0.36 0.35 0.35 0.33 0.32 0.31 0.29 50 1.0 World 0.37 0.36 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.32 EU-28 0.25 0.24 0.23 0.22 0.21 0.22 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.18 40 0.9

30 0.8

20 0.7

10 0.6

0.5 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Figure 1.5 Final energy consumption in Ukraine by types 0.4 Units: thousand toe. Source: prepared by authors on the base of the International Energy Agency’s data. 0.3 As can be seen in the Table 1.1 and Figure 1.5, Ukraine 0.2 lags behind not only economically developed countries of 0.1 the world with its level of RES use (including the countries of the Visegrad Group), but also the global indicator (Figure 1.6). 0.0 The share of RES in the global total final energy consumption 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (TFEC)12 amounted to 20% in 2014, while in Ukraine this figure Figure 1.8 Carbon intensity of GDP (PPP)

Units: tons of CO2 / USD 1,000 (2010). Source:Одиниця prepared виміру: byтонн authors СО2 / on1000 the дол. base США. of International Використано даніEnergy станом Agency’s на 2010 data рік.http:// was only 4.2%. energyatlas.iea.org/?subject=1378539487.

12 Total final energy consumption (TFEC) is the amount of final energy consumption, own energy consumption and losses during transportation and distribution with the exception of non-energy use of energy resources. 17 METHODOLOGY

General Deﬁnion and Condions Macroeconomic Methodological Approach of Energy Sector Development Scenarios Condions and Assumpons

Demographic Forecast Assumpons 2 Condions and Assumpons of Energy Resources' Prices on Nuclear Energy ock t s : Shuer o

18 Phot 2.1 General Methodological Approach To develop the scenarios of the energy sector development (Section 2.2) the macroeconomic scenario A combination of economic and mathematical models was used (Section 2.3) has been used, which determines dynamic to model scenarios of the energy sector development in Ukraine. changes of the principal drivers (control parameters) of the This includes dynamic optimization TIMES-Ukraine13 model demand for energy services: GDP, value added, industrial and a dynamic computable general equilibrium model production, number of population and household income, (CGE model). The algorithm for studying the economic and housing stock, energy resource prices, other macroeconomic energy scenarios is presented in Figure 2.1. and demographic indicators, the primary forecasts of which

џ GDP, ﬁnal consumpon rates; џ producon and consumpon volumes; џ technological, cost and environmental џ change in labor force; џ import/export prices, product cost characteriscs of power plants and џ prices of imported goods; structure; power transmission lines; џ real rates џ technological constraints џ technological constraints

CGEM TIMES WASP

џ dynamic changes of economic drivers Electricity demand forecast Opmal generang capacies structure (GDP, ﬁnal consumpon, sectoral producon, household income); џ increase in sectoral prices Opmal energy consumpon structure

Change of the technological progress parameters of CGEM unl matching the sectoral structure of Demand for energy services energy and fuel consumpons of the two models (useful energy)

џ change in labor force; Block of demand џ characteriscs of households; volumes esmaon џ price and income elascity Figure 2.1 Combination of economic and mathematical models to forecast the energy sector development

Note: no additional models to assess the optimization of the power sector (such as WASP Wien Automatic System Planning Package) to verify the structure of generating capacities for imposed technical and economic scenario constraints have been used in this work. Source: prepared by the authors. consistant with each other and are used to calibrate and First, the Reference (Conservative) Scenario has been parameterize the CGE model.13 developed, which assumes no fundamental change in the Estimated forecasted volumes of demand for energy conditions of the energy system functioning (see the definition services (needs), expressed in terms of work or useful in Section 2.2). The purpose of the calculations under this energy (production, transportation, heating of buildings, scenario is to establish a reference for comparison with the etc.), are presented in Annex A.1. For example, the need alternative (target) energy scenarios, the development of for heating was calculated by the categories of residential which is the next step of the analysis algorithm. The lowest buildings in cities and rural areas, taking into account the total costs (or maximum usefulness) are calculated for all the dynamics of the population at the place of residence and scenarios within the defined path of system development, composition of households, the growth rate of the space and respective assessments of the structure of supply and per resident, the volumes of housing construction with use of energy by sectors and types of fuel, GHG emissions by centralized and autonomous heating systems. Similarly, the categories of consumers, optimal technological structure of need for transportation services was calculated by the type of producers and consumers of energy, etc. are qualified. transport based on the rate of renewal of the fleet of vehicles The TIMES-Ukraine model15 is an optimization model (rolling stock) and the forecast of production and international of the energy flows in Ukraine. The energy system of Ukraine trade in goods that are the main types of cargo (agricultural, (see Annex A.2) is represented in the TIMES-Ukraine model extractive industry, metal rolling products), which, in turn, as a single region and consists of seven sectors: the energy depends on the general economic scenario assumptions. supply sector (production, import, export, international The possibility of meeting the demand for energy bunkers, stock changes, and the production of secondary services in accordance with the conditions of the energy resources – petroleum products, briquettes and macroeconomic scenario is estimated at the next stage other); electricity and heat production; industry; transport; with the help of the TIMES-Ukraine energy system model14. household sector (population); trade and services; agriculture The model takes into account the imposed budgetary (including fishing). That is, the structure of the model and technological constraints, calculates the optimal corresponds to the structure of the energy balance of Ukraine16 combination of energy technologies throughout the chain in line with the methodology of the International Energy of the use of energy resources, i.e. explicitly defines the Agency. Today the TIMES-Ukraine model takes into account forecasted energy balance of the country. Calculation of over 1.6 thousand technologies, the model database has been other associated important parameters of the forecast, updated based on the data of 2012 and calibrated for the same such as marginal prices or emission of pollutants from the year. More detailed information on the structure and logic of use of the estimated set of energy resources is carried out the TIMES-Ukraine model design is provided in the articles by simultaneously. O. Diachuk and R. Podolets.

13 Podolets, R.Z., Diachuk, O.A. Strategic Planning in Fuel and Energy Complex Based on TIMES-Ukraine Model: Scientific Report/NAS of Ukraine; Institute for Economics and Forecasting. – Kyiv, 2011. – 150 pages. 14 The term ‘‘energy system’’ means the whole complex of economic relations related to the production and use of energy resources, therefore this term is wider than the generally used terms «energy industry» or ‘‘fuel and energy complex’’. 15 The model is developed by the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine for the study of energy and ecological policy and scenarios of the national energy system development. 16 Energy balances of Ukraine in 2007-2014 / State Statistics Service of Ukraine. – Available at: http://ukrstat.gov.ua/ 19 IMPORT EXPORT Procurement Supply of goods and services of goods and services Goods and services Procurement of goods and services Procurement of goods and services S ) oﬁt) TRANSFERS SUBSIDIES ximizing pr ximizing ulity STATE (ma ( ma TAXES TAXES ENTERPRISE HOUSEHOLDS

Income from producon factors

Supply Procurement of producon factors Producon factors of producon Figure 2.2 Circulation of CGE model flows of Ukraine Source: prepared by the authors. The CGE model of Ukraine17 has been used to assess technologies remain unchanged up to 2050, such as they were the socio-economic implications of the implementation of in 2012. Gradual replacement of technologies takes place only the Liberal and Revolutionary Scenarios of the energy sector when the life time of certain existing capacities comes to its development in Ukraine. This model describes the principal end. The cost and efficiency of technologies that replace the inter-industry relationships, takes into account the behavior old ones reflects current trends: the cost decreases with time of such economic agents as enterprises, general government and the efficiency increases. At the same time, most of the sector and households. The export and import of products are existing technologies still can be used during the modeling represented as separate units in the model (Figure 2.2). period (2012-2050). This approach is useful to assess the Producers are divided by 40 types of economic activities in implications of the implementation of two alternative the model; enterprises determine the volume of production and scenarios, namely the effectiveness of measures and policies sales to maximize their own profits. Products manufactured by stimulating the technological change in the economy20. enterprises are consumed by households, general government The first, Liberal Scenario (or “Perfect Competitive sector, used for gross capital accumulation as raw materials Market”) implies the existence of a perfect competition across and materials in the production process, i.e. intermediate the national energy market and its sectors, the availability consumption, and exported. Money received by enterprises of economic incentives for the development of renewable from the sale of goods and services are used to purchase energy and implementation of energy efficiency and energy raw materials and production factors – labor and capital. An saving measures, implementation of the basic environmental enterprise can purchase raw materials and materials from requirements for energy sector installations, application of a national manufacturers or import them. The payment for the use low CO2 emission tax, etc. This scenario makes it possible to of production factors serves as a source of income of households. assess the competitiveness of renewable energy as compared Households spend their income to purchase goods and services to the conventional one under equal macroeconomic while trying to maximize their own utility of consumption. The conditions. state receives tax revenues, makes transfers, pays subsidies, and The Revolutionary Scenario of the national energy purchases products under government orders. sector transformation by 2050 has a single comprehensive The basic statistical information used in the process of target to guarantee that energy needs (demand) in the model calibration is grouped in the so-called Social Accounting final energy consumption sectors are met exclusively by Matrix (SAM) – that is an extended version of the IO table18, RES, which will greatly strengthen energy independence which in this case differs from the latter by availability of and climate policy of Ukraine. At the same time, the welfare additional information on transfers between economic of Ukrainian citizens, reliable energy supply and energy agents, including the disaggregated structure of tax revenues, sufficiency, economic, energy, environmental, food and other data on the sectoral distribution of investments, detailed security must be ensured. structure of final household consumption depending on the Table 2.1 summarizes key conditions and assumptions per capita income level, data on transfers to the Pension Fund of the Reference (Conservative) and alternative scenarios. and social insurance funds. The macroeconomic indicators, projections of energy prices Today CGE model of Ukraine is based on the data of IO and dynamics of the population of Ukraine are detailed in the table for 2012 and updated to 2016 indicators based on the Section 2.3 and are similar input data for the three scenarios. national accounts data using the RAS method procedure19. Base year for this study is the year of 2012, since it was the last year for Ukraine when the national economy 2.2 Definition and Conditions of Energy Sector Development was balanced, there was an economic growth and, most Scenarios importantly, there was no military and political crisis prompted by the actions of the Russian Federation, and the unity of The Reference (Conservative) Scenario is considered as a Ukraine was ensured. hypothetical scenario when the characteristics of the most

17 Chepeliev, M.H. Modeling and assessment of economic consequences of subsidizing household consumers of energy resources: dissertation of PhD in Economic Sciences: 08.00.11 / Chepeliev Maksym Hryhorovych. – Kyiv, 2015. – 266 pages. – References: Pages 195-230 18 Input-output table (in consumer prices) [Electronic resource] // State Statistics Service of Ukraine. – Available at: http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ 19 Trinh B. A Short Note on RAS Method [Electronic resource] / B. Trinh and N.V. Phong // Advances in Management & Applied Economics. – 2013. – Vol. 3, no. 4. – P. 133-137. – Available at: http://www.scienpress.com/Upload/AMAE/Vol%203_4_12.pdf 20 https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch2s2-7-1-1.html 20 Table 2.1 Matrix of modeled scenarios 21222324 SCENARIOS CONDITIONS Reference (Conservative) Scenario Liberal Scenario Revolutionary Scenario GDP21 • Average annual GDP growth in the period of 2016-2050 – 4.0%. • By 2050 GDP will grow fourfold. Prices of the • The import price of oil will increase from $96 to $129 per barrel in the period of 2014-2050. Growth – 35%. main energy • After the decrease in 2015-2016, the import price of coal will fluctuate at $55-70 (2014)/ton in the period resources22 of 2014-2050. Growth in 2050 – 0%. • The price of natural gas will increase from $10 to $16 per MBTU in the period of 2014-2050. Growth – 60%. Population of • The population of Ukraine will decrease from 45.2 million people in 2014 to 38.9 million people in 2050. Ukraine23 Cost of • The assumptions about the cost of technology (capital investment and operating costs) using fossil fuels, nuclear technology24 energy and RES are primarily based on estimates of the International Energy Agency, data of Lappeenranta University of Technology (Finland) and, of course, data of national experts in energy efficiency and renewable energy. Energy • There are no measures to increase • Possibility of introduction of any • The conditions of the Liberal efficiency energy efficiency and energy saving, measures to increase energy efficiency Scenario are in place. even economically attractive ones. and energy saving. • The implementation of any energy • Efficiency of technologies in the • Implementation of economically efficiency and energy saving final energy consumption sectors at attractive energy efficient measures. measures are stimulated to reduce the level of 2012. • Perfect competition at the national the use of RES. • Implementation of advanced energy market and its sectors. technologies is not planned. • Insignificant influence of external (global) factors on the cost and efficiency of technology. • Energy intensity of GDP decreases as a result of changes in the structure of the economy in line with the macroeconomic scenario and limited changes in the technological structure. Renewable • The feed-in-tariff is effective in line • The feed-in-tariff is effective in line • Achievement of 90-100% RES in the energy sources with the schedule established by the with the schedule established by the final energy energy consumption. legislation up to 2030, but there are legislation up to 2030. There are no • The feed-in-tariff is effective in line no environmental, climate or other institutional barriers and interventions with the schedule established by the restrictions on the use of any fuel. envisioned in the legislation. legislation up to 2030. • There is only an economic incentive for the renewable energy development. Nuclear power • No barriers to development. • No barriers to development. • Decommissioning of all NPPs by • Possibility of prolonging • Possibility of prolonging the opera- 2050. the operation of the existing power tion of the existing power units for a • Possibility of prolonging units for a maximum of 20 years. maximum of 20 years. the operation of the existing power • The cost of new power units corre- • The cost of new power units in line units of nuclear power plants for a sponds to European indicators. with European experience. maximum of 20 years by 2049. • No construction of new NPPs. Environmental • N/A • Compliance with the requirements of • Compliance with the requirements requirements Directive 2010/75/EU on the limitation of Directive 2010/75/EU on the of emissions of certain pollutants into limitation of emissions of certain the air from large combustion plants pollutants into the air from large (> 50 MW). combustion plants (> 50 MW). • Compliance with the requirements • Compliance with the requirements of Directive 2015/2193/EU on the of Directive 2015/2193/EU on the limitation of emissions of certain limitation of emissions of certain pollutants into the air from medium pollutants into the air from medium combustion plants (1-50 MW) has not combustion plants (1-50 MW) has not been approved by Ukraine yet and has been approved by Ukraine yet and not been included in the model. has not been included in the model.

Source: prepared by the authors.

21 See Table 2.2. 22 See Figure 2.3. 23 See Table 2.3. 24 See Annex 2. 21 2.3 Macroeconomic Conditions and Assumptions rate than the processing ones. The mining and metallurgical complex will gradually decrease its share in GDP. This trend is For the purposes of the Reference macroeconomic scenario25, likely to continue in the long term. it was assumed that the military and political conflict The recovery of pre-crisis production volumes in in the East of Ukraine would be settled not earlier than the absolute majority of industries will take place during in 2018-2019. Under such conditions, the Ukrainian economy 2020-2025. However, several sectors will grow quite slowly and is not likely to fully recover from the crisis during the period will reach pre-crisis production volumes only in the long term, of 2016-2018. The size of the aggregate GDP is not likely to i.e. after 2030. These industries, in particular, include “Extraction reach the pre-crisis level of 2012-2013, although there will be of black and brown coal” and “Manufacture of chemicals and a minor economic growth. There is a probability of significant chemical products”. exchange rate fluctuations, and further devaluation of the The highest growth rates among the sectors of the hryvnia will pose a high risk for the recovery of the economic processing industry in the long-term will be observed in machine- growth. There will be a slight increase in nominal wages, while building industries, in particular, “Manufacture of computers, the real wages will only increase starting from 2019. electronic and optical products” and “Manufacture of electrical Nevertheless, the economic growth will be driven by equipment”, as well as in food and pharmaceutical industries. the food, light and pharmaceutical industries. Recovery of In the long-term period (2026-2050), no significant positive trends coud be also expected in the production of structural shifts are expected in the Ukrainian economy at the building materials. There will be a positive dynamics in the aggregated level, and the growth rates of the service sector production of computers, electronic and optical products in will be comparable to the growth rates of manufacturing machine-building industry. industries. The highest growth rates in the tertiary sector А gradual recovery of production in the real sector is are expected in “Telecommunications” and “Computer expected in the short and medium term, but the growth rate programming, consulting and provision of information will be lower than in the agricultural sector. In the period up to services”. In general, annual average growth rate of GDP 2020, a decline in output may be observed in certain extractive projected under reference macroeconomic scenario would be industries, in particular, in black and brown coal mining. A at the level of 4% (Table 2.2). more active recovery of production will be observed in the gas Overall, the presented above GDP forecast for Ukraine sector, in particular as a result of the latest gas market reforms is in line with the expectations of the IMF and the World Bank. and increase of the selling prices for gas extraction companies. Thus, the IMF forecasts annual average growth rate of the GDP Overall, processing industries will grow at a slightly higher rate at 2.9%26 in 2016-2020. According to the World Bank27, the than mining leading to a decline in the share of the latter in GDP. annual average growth rate of UGDP will be 2.0% in the period The recovery of the overall positive dynamics in the of 2016-2018, and it will be accelerated in the medium term Ukrainian economy can be expected starting from 2017. (1% in 2016, 2% in 2017, and 3% in 2018).28 In 2020-2025, the economy will grow at a rather high rate The structure of Ukraine’s GDP by sectors for the period (Table 2.2). Extractive industries will have a lower growth 2015-2050 is presented in Annex A.4. Table 2.2 Annual average Ukraine’s GDP growth rate in the period of 2016-2050, % Sectors/Years 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1.4 5.7 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 Mining and quarrying 3.0 3.4 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Processing industry 6.5 5.6 4.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 Supply of electricity, gas, steam 4.4 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 and conditioned air Construction 8.0 6.4 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 Manufacturing – total 4.2 5.3 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Services– total 2.5 5.0 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 GDP 2.8 5.0 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

Source: prepared by the specialists of the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine in 2016 within the USAID Municipal Energy Reform Project in Ukraine. Table 2.3 Forecast of the population of Ukraine up to 2050, million people28 Scenarios 2012 2014 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 IDSS - AAA scenario 44.4 43.6 42.8 41.8 40.8 39.9 38.9 IDSS - HHH scenario 45.1 45.1 45.1 45.1 45.2 45.4 45.6 IDSS - LLL scenario 43.4 41.6 39.7 37.8 35.8 33.9 32.0 IDSS - Stable scenario 44.1 42.7 41.1 39.5 37.8 36.1 34.3 IDSS - AAZ scenario 45.3 45.2 42.7 44.3 43.3 42.1 40.8 39.5 38.3 37.1 IDSS - HLH scenario 44.3 43.5 42.7 41.8 41.1 40.7 40.3 IDSS - LHL scenario 44.2 43.2 42.1 41.0 39.8 38.5 37.0 Scenario of the United Nations Department 43.7 42.4 40.9 39.3 37.8 36.4 35.1 of Economic and Social Affairs * Excluding the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol. Source: prepared by the authors based on the data of the Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.

25 The reference macroeconomic scenario was prepared by the specialists of the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine in 2016 within the USAID Municipal Energy Reform Project in Ukraine. 26 World Economic Outlook Database. International Monetary Fund. Available from: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/01/weodata/index.aspx 27 Global Economic Prospects. Europe and Central Asia. The World Bank. Available from: http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/484281463605616745/Global-Economic-Prospects-June–2016-Europe-and-Central-Asia-analysis.pdf 28 Abbreviated names of the scenarios mean: AAA – Average birth rate, Average life expectancy, Average net migration; HHH – High birth rate, High life expectancy, High net migration; LLL – Low birth rate, Low life expectancy, Low net migration; AAZ – Average birth rate, Average life expectancy, Zero net migration; HLH – High birth rate, Low life expectancy, High net migration; LHL – Low birth rate, High life expectancy, Low net migration; the Stable scenario assumes that all components are fixed at the level of 2011. 22 2.4 Demographic Conditions and Assumptions Crude oil, $/barrel Natural gas, $/Mbtu Thermal coal, $/t

$140 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 129.42020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Modeling of scenarios of the Ukraine’s energy sector Crude oil, $/barrel 109.0 104.1 96.2 50.8 42.8 55.0 60.0 61.5 62.9 71.0 80.0 90.2 101.7 114.7 129.4 Natural gas, $/Mbtu 11.7 11.8 10.1 7.3 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 6.7 8.0 9.6 11.4 13.7 16.3 $120 development is based on the use of population projections of Thermal coal, $/t 99.0 84.6 70.1 57.5 65.9 70.0 60.0 55.0 55.4 57.7 60.0 62.4 65.0 67.6 70.4 the Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (IDSS of the NAS of Ukraine)29, $100 2012 109.0 11.7 99.0 80.0 2013 104.1 11.8 84.6 which are in line with projections of the United Nations $80 70.4 30 2014 96.2 10.1 70.1 Department of Economic and Social Affairs . Demographic 57.5 2015 50.8 7.3 57.5 2016 42.8 4.6 65.9 forecasts of national scientists can be considered as more reliable, $60 2017 55.0 5.0 70.0 2018 60.0 5.2 60.0 60.0 as they better take into account the current conditions in Ukraine. 2019 61.5 5.4 55.0 $40 50.8 2020 62.9 5.6 55.4 This study uses one demographic scenario of the IDSS 2025 71.0 6.7 57.7 2030 80.0 8.0 60.0 16.3=~$603/bcm of the NAS of Ukraine (AAA scenario, Table 2.3), which predicts $20 7.3=~$270/bcm 2035 90.28.0=~$296/bcm9.6 62.4 average birth rates, average life expectancy and average net 2040 101.7 11.4 65.0 2045 114.7 13.7 67.6 migration in Ukraine. $0 2050 129.4 16.3 70.4

Table 2.3 shows that the population of Ukraine 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 decreased sharply in 2015 due to the temporary occupation of Figure 2.3 Price forecast for main energy resources (nominal the territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city prices) of Sevastopol. Since all the scenarios suggest that temporary Units: USD $. Source: prepared by the authors based on the data of the World Bank (prices for 2014-2030), and own occupation will not last longer than 2020, population of calculations of prices for the period of 2035-2050. Ukraine will return to its trajectory and will continue to move Khmelnytskyi and South Ukraine NPPs). There are 15 power in line with the previously developed demographic scenarios. units at the operating NPPs: 13 with the VVER-1,000 type reactor units and 2 with the VVER-440 type reactor units. 2.5 Forecast of Energy Resources’ Prices As can be seen in Table 2.4, the construction of power units No. 3 and No. 4 at Khmelnytskyi NPP started in the The energy prices forecast by 2050 for Ukraine is based on 80s of 20th century and has not been completed yet. It was the forecast prices for the world market by 203031 published suspended by the moratorium on the construction of the new by a team of researchers of the World Bank in the latest nuclear units in 1990. As of the beginning of April 2017, there Commodities Market Overview (January 2017)32. A forecast is no decision on the construction (completion) of these power of prices for 2035-2050 is obtained by a simple extrapolation units approved in accordance in line with all procedures. of data provided in the January 2017 Commodities Market The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted laws in Overview (Figure 2.3).33, 34 September 2015 that denounced the Agreement between the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and the Government of 2.6 Assumptions on Nuclear Energy the Russian Federation on the cooperation in the construction of KhNPPs No. 3 and No. 4 and declared invalid the Law of State company NNEGC “Energoatom” is responsible for Ukraine “On Placement, Designing and Construction of Power operating of all NPPs in Ukraine (Zaporizhzhia, Rivne, Units No. 3 and No. 4 of the Khmelnytskyi NPP” No. 5217-VI Table 2.4 Summary information on operating NPPs in Ukraine

NPP name Power Reactor Installed power Start of Connection Validity of the unit No. unit type capacity (MW) construction to the grid operation license Zaporizhzhia (ZNPP) 1* VVER-1000/320 1,000 04/1980 10/12/1984 23/12/2025 2* VVER-1000/320 1,000 04/1981 22/07/1985 19/02/2026 3 VVER-1000/320 1,000 04/1982 10/12/1986 05/03/2017 4 VVER-1000/320 1,000 01/1984 18/12/1987 04/04/2018 5 VVER-1000/320 1,000 07/1985 14/08/1989 27/05/2020 6 VVER-1000/320 1,000 06/1986 19/10/1995 21/10/2026 South Ukraine (SUNPP) 1* VVER-1000/302 1,000 03/1977 31/12/1982 20/12/2023 2* VVER-1000/338 1,000 10/1979 06/01/1985 31/12/2025 3 VVER-1000/320 1,000 02/1985 20/09/1989 10/02/2020 Rivne (RNPP) 1** VVER-440/213 415 08/1976 22/12/1980 22/12/2030 2** VVER-440/213 420 10/1977 22/12/1981 22/12/2031 3 VVER-1000/320 1,000 02/1981 21/12/1986 11/12/2017 4 VVER-1000/320 1,000 1986 10/10/2004 07/06/2035 Khmelnytskyi (KhNPP) 1 VVER-1000/320 1,000 11/1981 22/12/1987 13/12/2018 2 VVER-1000/320 1,000 1983 07/08/2004 07/09/2035 3*** VVER-1000 09/1985 4*** VVER-1000 06/1986

* The life time of power units No. 1 and No. 2 of South Ukraine NPP, No. 1 and No. 2 of Zaporizhzhia NPP has been extended for 10 years. ** The life time of power units No. 1 and No. 2 of Rivne NPP has been extended for 20 years. *** The construction of the power units has not been completed. Source: prepared by the authors 33, 34

29 http://www.idss.org.ua/monografii/popforecast2014.rar 30 http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm 31 Consodering that the energy prices in Ukraine are largelyliberalized, it is reasonable to assume that the prices in the national market will correspond to the world market prices. 32 Commodities Market Overview. Investment Weakness in Commodity Exporters / World Bank Group, January 2017. Available at: http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/820161485188875433/CMO-January-2017-Full-Report.pdf 33 Order of the Ministry of Energy and Coal Industry of Ukraine No. 798 dated 10/12/2015 ‘’Decommissioning Conception of the operating NPPs in Ukraine’’. – Page 11. 34 Presentation of SE NNEGC ‘‘Energoatom’’: current state, development perspectives and problematic issues. – Kyiv, 2017. – Available at: http: //www.xaec.org.ua/pdf/pres201701261048.pdf 23 dated September 6, 2012. Currently, there is no new formal new NPP power units could amount to USD 7.0 or EUR 6.5 billion construction agreement with other suppliers of nuclear per 1,000 MW of installed capacity. technology and no corresponding funding has been confirmed. The life time of 6 out of 15 operating power units at However, NNEGC “Energoatom” estimates the NPPs was extended for: construction readiness of new power units at KhNPP: power • RNPP No. 1, 2 – operational lifetime was extended on unit No. 3 – 75%, power unit No. 4 – 28%, the total approved December 10, 2010 till 2030 and 2031, respectively; construction cost – EUR 3.7 billion. • SUNPP No. 1 – operational lifetime was extended According to experts of the National Ecological Center on November 28, 2013 till December 02, 2023; of Ukraine (NECU), given the long process of preparation of • ZNPP No. 1 – operational lifetime was extended project documentation and construction of NPPs in Europe35, on September 14, 2016 till December 23, 2025; it is not likely that all stages of the process will be completed • ZNPP No. 2 – operational lifetime was extended by 2030 including selecting technology supplier and on October 04, 2016 till February 19, 2026. securing funding, approval of the project documenttion and Work is carried out at 4 power units: RNPP No. 3; ZNPP the construction of power units. An additional factor that No. 3, 4; KhNPP No. 1. Operational lifetime of SUNPP No. 3 and will significantly influence the increase of the construction the ZNPP No. 5 will expire in 2020, and of RNPP No. 4; ZNPP period and the cost of the design, is the unreliability of No. 6; KhNPP No. 2 after 2020. using existing structures and the probability of their partial According to the NNEGC “Energoatom”40, the specific cost or complete dismantling recognized by the State Nuclear of a unit of installed capacity for the extension of the life time of Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine36. These structures stayed power units No. 1, 2 of RNPP amounted to USD 358 per 1 kW41 unconservated for more than 30 years (from 1985 and 1986) (taking into account implemented reconstruction and and partly flooded with water. Thus, the possibility of their modernization measures). In April 2016, the Head of the use and reliability is questionable. NNEGC “Energoatom” noted in his presentation at the Hearings According to the NNEGC “Energoatom”, the at the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Fuel and Energy cost of power units construction at new sites is Complex, Nuclear Policy and Nuclear Safety, that according USD 7,000 (~ EUR 6,514) million per GW37. According to 2016 to the latest estimates, the cost of extending the life time of report of the European Commission38 the cost of new nuclear power units of Ukraine’s NPPs is about USD 300 million per GW power plants construction is growing every year. For example, (or USD 300 per 1 kW), while the construction of a new power the construction of new NPP power units of the EPR type unit costs USD 7,000 (~ EUR 6,514) million per GW. However, (European Pressurized Reactor) with a capacity of 1,670 MW the costs of implementing the Comprehensive (consolidated) in Flamanville (France) is estimated at EUR 6,287 (~ USD 6,756) program for increasing the level of safety at Ukraine’s NPPs, per kW, and in Hanhikivi (Finland) the cost of construction approved by the Regulation of the Cabinet of Ministers of of new NPP power units of 1,200 MW is estimated Ukraine No. 127042 as of December 7, 2011, should be added at EUR 6-7 billion or EUR 5,000-5,800 (~ USD 5,373- to the cost of extending the life time of Ukrainian NPPs. 6,233) per kW. The joint study of the International Energy According to the estimates of the NNEGC “Energoatom”, this Agency (IEA) and the Nuclear Energy Agency at the Organization amount was UAH 30.1 billion (excluding VAT) or USD 1.31 billion for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) indicates (~ EUR 1.22)43. that the cost of construction of new NPP power units in In order to determine the cost of extending the European countries is from USD 4,986 (EUR 4,640) per kW life time of power units at NPP used for modelling of the in Slovakia to USD 7,535 (EUR 7,012) per kW in Hungary39. long-term development of Ukraine’s energy sector, the actual Thus, the cost of construction in Hungary is compareable to costs incurred in extending the life time of power units No. 1, 2 of the estimates of the NNEGC “Energoatom”. RNPP (USD 358 per 1 kW or EUR 333 million per 1,000 MW) were Taking into account discussed above data and the fact taken into an account. The average costs of the Comprehensive that construction costs are constantly growing due to the programme implementation for NPP power units (9 units) were increased safety requirements for operation of NPPs, data of added for NPPs for which lifetime has not been extended yet. the NNEGC “Energoatom” was taken into account for the long- Consequently, the cost of extending the life time of operating term forecasting of the energy sector development in Ukraine. NPP units for 20 years will be USD 358 + USD 1,310/9 = USD 504 In particular, it was estimated that the price of construction of (~ EUR 467) million per 1,000 MW of installed capacity.

35 The Flamanville 3 reactor in France is scheduled to be completed in 11 years, and in Finland, the preparation process for the construction of Olkiluoto 3 began in 2000 and is scheduled to be completed in 2018 with a 9 year delay. Find more at https:// www.carbonbrief.org/new-nuclear-finlands-cautionary-tale-for-the-uk and https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jul/27/flamanville-france-edf-nuclear-reactor-hinkley-point-c 36 Letter of the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine No. 15-55/1439-60 dated March 01, 2013 regarding requirements for the construction design of power units No.3, 4 of Khmelnytskyi NPP. – Available at: http://necu.org.ua/wp-content/ uploads/novi_vymogy_khaes_vidpovid.pdf 37 Presentation ‘‘Strategic development of the nuclear industry. Problematic Issues’’ made by SE NNEGC ‘‘Energoatom’’ at the Hearings at the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Fuel and Energy Complex, Nuclear Policy and Nuclear Safety Issues on April 15, 2016 - Page 34. - Available at: https://yadi.sk/i/td-Gtgo6r7XBQ 38 Communication from the Commission ‹‹Nuclear Illustrative Programme presented under Article 40 of the Euratom Treaty for the opinion of the European Economic and Social Committee››, Brussels, 4.4.2016, SWD(2016) 102 final. – Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/1_EN_autre_document_travail_service_part1_v10.pdf 39 Projected Costs of Generating Electricity // International Energy Agency, Nuclear energy agency under the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2015. Available at: https://www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/pubs/2015/7057-proj-costs- electricity-2015.pdf 40 Response to the request of the National Ecological Center of Ukraine, letter No. 11673 dated August 16, 2013 41 Letter from NNEGC ‘‘Energoatom’’ ‘‘On provision of information’’ No. 11673 dated August 16, 2013 – Available at: http://necu.org.ua/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/vidpovid-ea-2013.pdf 42 Regulation of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine No. 1270 as of December 07, 2011 ‘‘On approval of the Comprehensive (consolidated) program for increasing the level of safety at Ukraine’s NPP s’’. – Available at: http://zakon0.rada.gov.ua/laws/ show/1270-2011-%D0%BF 43 Official exchange rate established by the National Bank of Ukraine as of January 6, 2016 – Available at: https://bank.gov.ua/control/uk/curmetal/currency/search?formType=searchFormDate&time_step=daily&date= 06.01.2016&&execute=%D0%92%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0 %BE%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B8&outer=xls 24 POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES IN UKRAINE

Wind Solar Bio- Hydro- Balancing Energy Power energy power WPP and SPP ock t s o : Shuer

25Phot 3.1 Wind Energy is at least 40%, which is confirmed in practice for currently operating WPPs in Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Mykolaiv Ukraine has a significant natural potential for the regions, the annual power generation capacity of WPPs can implementation of wind energy projects, which determines amount to 56 billion kWh. This is equivalent to 29% of the government’s interest in the development of this industry and total electricity production in Ukraine before the occupation also attracts a large number of potential national and foreign of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, city of Sevastopol investors. by the Russian Federation and its military aggression on the According to the latest estimates of the Ukrainian Wind territory of defined areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Energy Association (UWEA), 16 GW of WPP is a real potential Based on 2016 figures, 56 billion kWh equals to 34% of the of the wind energy sector of Ukraine. If capacity utilization rate total electricity production. Table 3.1 Estimation of perspective technical characteristics of on-shore WPPs

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Minimum 1,600 1,500 1,500 1,440 1,350 1,300 1,250 1,250 Cost of installed capacity (overnight cost44), Average 1,665 1,590 1,590 1,505 1,440 1,365 1,325 1,300 EUR/kW Maximum 1,730 1,680 1,680 1,570 1,530 1,430 1,400 1,350 Minimum 20 23 26 29 32 35 35 35 Operating expenses (opex), EUR/kW Average 25 28 31 34 37 40 40 40 Maximum 30 33 36 39 42 45 45 45 Average ICUF for all WPPs in Ukraine 36% 36% 36% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40%

Source: prepared by the authors based on the data of the Ukrainian Wind Energy Association, 2016.

Full cost of construction of wind power plants is in Table 3.2 Potential of Solar Power, GW the range from USD 1,400 to 1,700 per 1 kW. According to UWEA forecasts, this cost could decrease by more than 20% 2030 2050 44 by 2050 (Table 3.1). For ground-mounted power plants 16 90 Taking into account study by Child et al. (2016)45, more optimistic potential of wind power (25 GW in 2030 and 60 GW For roof-mounted power plants 5 36 in 2050) was considered to model the Liberal and Revolutionary Source: prepared by the authors based on the data presented in the study by M. Child, D. Bogdanov and C. Breyer “Transition Scenarios. towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine”, 2016, and consultations with national experts. In order to avoid the negative impact of the rapid Table 3.3 Cost of solar power plants, EUR/kW development of wind energy on the populations of birds it is necessary to take into account at the project planning stage 2015 2020 2030 2050 the distance to the protected areas and / or areas of mass Ground 1,300 750 700 475 seasonal concentrations and migratory routes of birds. This should be done when environmental impact assessment of Roof 1,700 800 750 510 the project is carried out. Reasonable planning of wind farms Source: prepared by the authors based on the data presented in the study by of M. Child, D. Bogdanov and C. Breyer will avoid or significantly reduce the potential risks of wind “Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine”, 2016, and consultations with national experts. power affecting the population of birds. 3.3 Bioenergy 3.2 Solar Power According to the Bioenergy Association of Ukraine, the According to the State Agency on Energy Efficiency and economically feasible current bioenergy potential is Energy Saving of Ukraine, the theoretically possible about 20 million toe, and it could reach 42 million toe potential of solar energy at the territory of Ukraine is over in 2050 (Table 3.4). This is possible due to increased use of 730 billion kWh per year46, but the technically possible corn for biogas production, energy crops cultivation and use potential is only 34.2 billion kWh per year. One of the main of biogas. Currently available energy potential of wood and obstacles to the intensive development of renewable power agricultural residues and wastes is almost not used. To enable is a poorly developed grid and outdated centralized approach. its use, logistical networks for collecting, delivering and storage According to Rentechno experts47, renewable energy of biomass should be developed, since the transportation of technologies in Ukraine can cover up to 80% of electricity wood with a low bulk density over long distances is not cost- demand taking into an account current level of technology effective. In order to enable the use of biomass in the utilities development. sector, long-term wood supply contracts are required in The number of households installing rooftop addition to addressing a number of technical issues. PV systems can reach 40-50% by 2050. In addition, solar Cogeneration technologies allow receiving both heat and collectors for heating water will become more and more electric power. Renewable “raw materials” for such technologies cost-effective. These technologies will allow meeting the can be biogas, methane of coal deposits, etc. New (not used) demand for hot water in private households by 70-100% cogeneration units of the leading world manufacturers, as well during the summer and by 15% in winter. In the services as those that were in use, are available on Ukraine’s market. sector, the potential for solar energy use is smaller, but it is Main technical characteristics of cogeneration technologies also promising. used to model the long-term scenarios of the energy sector To model the Liberal and Revolutionary Scenarios, the development are provided in Table 3.5. following assumptions regarding the potential (Table 3.2) In case co-firing of biomass with coal is used the and the cost (Table 3.3) of solar power in Ukraine were investment is USD 50-250 kW, the cost of electricity used, taking into account study of Child et. al (2016)48, and is USD 20/MWh (if own raw materials are available and the consultations with national experts. transport costs are minimal). The cost of raw materials

44 Overnight cost includes pre-construction (owner’s), construction (engineering, procurement and construction) and contingency costs, but not interest during construction (IDC). 45 M.Child, D.Bogdanov and C.Breyer “Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine”, 2016: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/315117520_The_role_of_storage_technologies_for_the_transition_to_a_100_renewable_ energy_system_in_Ukraine. 46 http://saee.gov.ua/uk/pressroom/1133 47 According to the result of consultations with the experts in the field of RES conducted in preparation of this report in March 2017. 48 M.Child, D.Bogdanov and C.Breyer “Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine”, 2016 26 Table 3.4 Bioenergy potential of Ukraine

2015 2050 Biomass type Theoretical Share available for Economic potential, Economic potential, potential, mln t energy sector, % mln tce49 mln tce Cereals straw 35.14 30 5.22 7.83 Rape straw 3.10 40 0.62 0.93 Corn grain production wastes (stems, cores) 30.3 40 3.31 4.97 Sunflower seed production wastes 21.2 40 1.74 1.74 Secondary agricultural wastes (sunflower husks) 1.9 41 0.39 0.39 Total agricultural potential 91.64 11.28 15.86 Wood biomass (firewood, logging wastes and residues, splinters) 8.8 41 1.47 2.97 Wood biomass (maintenance logging of forest bands, dead-wood) 11.0 58 2.57 1.47 Total wood 14.80 3.45 4.44 Biodiesel - - 0.27 0.27 Bioethanol - - 0.77 0.77 Total biofuel - - 1.04 1.04 Biogas from by-products of the agri-food sector (manure + food 1.6 bln m3 СН 50 0.97 3.40 industry) 4

3 Biogas from solid waste landfills 0.6 bln m СН4 34 0.26 0.85 3 Biogas from wastewater 1.0 bln m СН4 23 0.27 0.56 3 Total biogas 3.2 bln m СН4 1.5 4.81 Poplar, miscanthus, acacia, alder, willow 11.5 90 6.28 18.84

3 Corn (biogas) 3.3 bln m СН4 90 3.68 14.72 Total energy crops 9.96 33.56 Peat 0.4 0.4 TOTAL, million tce 27.63 60.10 TOTAL, million toe 19.34 42.07

Source: data provided by the Bioenergy Association of Ukraine. Note: considering the significant environmental impacts of peat extraction, this study does not include energy potential of peat for designing scenarios for the energy sector development. 49 development are developed based on data of the Bioenergy Table 3.5 Basic costs of cogeneration technologies based on Association of Ukraine, taking into consideration studies biomass of Child et al. (2016)51 and presented in Table 3.6-3.9. In addition, it was taken into account that the reduction of New Used capital costs could be achieved due to domestic production of equipment. Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 532 250 Operating expenses, EUR/kW 20 20 electr. 3.4 Hydropower CP, % 87.2 87.2 Large hydropower development is limited for all scenarios, Source: prepared by the authors based on data at http://m-energo.biz/goods/al/Belgium_JMC412_biogas_2010_11000. as this type of generation is recognized as unsustainable renewable energy source. Thus, only the completion of the (biomass) is USD 3-3.5/GJ, so the cost of electricity can exceed Kakhovka HPP-2 on the basis of the existing dam is potentially USD 30-50/MWh. Power plants using only biomass are more considered, since serious environmental impacts are not expensive and require the investment of USD 1,500-3,000/kW. expected in this case. Based on these assumptions, the capacity In this case, the cost of electricity can be USD 40-90/MWh50. of large hydropower (HPP and PSPP) will be 6,033 MW (2015) To model the long-term development of the energy + 250 MW (Kakhovka HPP-2), which will amount to 6,283 MW sector, it has been assumed that the share of hot water in total. supply provided by biomass boilers will correspond to the According to environmental NGOs there is no small HPP share of the population using biomass boilers for heating in Ukraine that meets environmental criteria, and they bring by 2050. Cooking with biomass as a fuel is not expected much more environmental damage than potential benefits in the future. According to the Bioenergy Association of can be obtained (for example, a reduction of greenhouse Ukraine, today the production of thermal energy from gas emissions). At the same time, there are examples of biomass is cost-effective at current prices for natural gas and HPPs in Austria and Norway that are completely safe for the will remain so in the future. The payback period for biomass environment. Therefore, a compromise option was chosen in power plants is 8 years subject to the current feed-in-tariff, this study: the use of 50% of the available potential of small while the biomass CHPP has a payback period of 4.5 years, HPP provided that the most stringent environmental criteria which is attractive result for business. are met. As of 2016, installed capacity of small HPPs is 90 MW52. The main technical characteristics of biomass TPPs, According to the Institute of Renewable Energy of CHPPs, biomass boilers and biogas technologies used the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, the maximum to model the long-term scenarios of the energy sector capacity of small HPPs, which could be achieved by 2030,

49 tce stands for tons of coal equivalent 50 https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/essentials3.pdf 51 M.Child, D.Bogdanov and C.Breyer “Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine”, 2016 52 Report “Development of Renewable Energy Sources in Ukraine”, http://www.minregion.gov.ua/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Rozvitok-VDE-v-Ukrai--ni.pdf 27 Table 3.6 Basic costs of biomass TPPs

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Wood biomass

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 2,800 2,800 2,800 2,600 2,500 2,400 2,200 2,000

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 30 CP, % 24 24 25 26 28 29 30 31 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 30 Biomass from waste of agri-food complex, etc.

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 3,500 2,900 2,800 2,700 2,600 2,500 2,300 2,100

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 30 CP, % 23 23 24 24 25 27 28 29 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 30 Biogas

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 4,500 4,400 4,300 4,200 4,100 4,000 3,900 3,800

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 30 CP, % 42 42 42 43 43 43 44 44 ICUF, % 90 Life time, years 30

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Wood biomass

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 3,500 3,400 3,300 3,200 3,100 3,000 2,900 2,800

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 50 CP, % 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 35 Biomass from waste of agro-industrial complex

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 3,500 3,400 3,200 3,100 2,900 2,900 2,800 2,800

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 55 CP, % 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 35 Household waste

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 5,500 5,400 5,200 5,100 5,000 4,800 4,500 4,500

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 55 CP, % 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 35 Energy crops

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 3,500 3,400 3,300 3,200 3,100 3,000 3,000 3,000

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 50 CP, % 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 35

Source: prepared by the authors based on the data of the Bioenergy Association of Ukraine and study by M. Child, D. Bogdanov and C. Breyer “Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine”, 2016. is 250 MW53. That is, the additional potential to existing part of this potential should be implemented as a result of capacities will be 250-90 = 180 MW. Assuming that 50% of the modernization and increase of efficiency of the existing small new small HPPs meet all environmental criteria, the additional HPPs. New mini-HPPs can only be constructed subject to increase will be 90 MW. It is assumed that a significant stringent environmental criteria that need to be introduced at

53 Report “Development of Renewable Energy Sources in Ukraine”, http://www.minregion.gov.ua/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Rozvitok-VDE-v-Ukrai--ni.pdf 28 Table 3.8 Basic costs of biomass boiler houses amount of balancing capacity. Hydropower will not be able to meet the demand for balancing capacity, so development 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 of solar and wind energy should be accompanied by the Wood biomass development of energy storage technologies (batteries) to ensure the stability and predictability of these types of Capital generation. expenditure, 150 145 142 140 138 136 136 136 Figure 3.1 presents the diagrams of the distribution of EUR/kW electr. average daily electricity production by solar and wind power Operating plants in Ukraine for the period of 2013-2015. At first glance, expenses, 7 these diagrams (in annual terms) look rather smooth and EUR/kWelectr. can be easily predicted, and, consequently, the calculation of CP, % 64 64 64 64 64 65 65 65 required balancing capacity promises to be simple. CEC 1 2013 2 3 4 20145 6 7 20158 9 10 11 12 13 201314 15 16 17 2014 18 19 20 201521 22 23 ICUF, % 50 2013 11 44 14 27 43 279 3544 14579 30259 43959 54087 57114 56161 50160 40165 28587 18246 8685 2322 540 24 53 69 80000 2014 60 58 58 64 77 439 3590 15792 33325 50848 626716000069034 69119 62379 49995 35955 22156 10308 3205 760 122 95 79 2015 35 42 29 33 35 335 2204 10309 23312 35911 44942 48603 48657 45119 37457 27249 17469 8832 2702 559 86 55 43 Life time, 35 70000 years 50000

Waste of the agri-food complex, etc. 60000 40000 Capital 50000 expenditure, 400 350 320 300 280 270 260 250

EUR/kWelectr. 40000 30000 Operating 30000 expenses, 7 20000 EUR/kW ВЕС electr. 20000 2013 19190 19348 19242 19099 19126 18886 18262 17317 16919 17048 17718 17991 18596 18874 19153 19342 19176 18656 18364 17975 18179 18435 18848 2014 46668 47008 45943 46315 46314 46293 46147 44786 44249 44109 44495 45447 47062 47233 47683 48054 47892 47604 47738 47280 47173 46770 47079 CP, % 62 62 62 62 63 63 63 64 2015 39777 39900 39882 38989 38976 38163 36645 33722 31941 32543 335481000034912 36060 36976 36812 36595 36551 36158 35306 35255 36508 37906 38678 10000 ICUF, % 50 0 0 Life time, 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 35 years а. SPPs Source: prepared by the authors based on the data of the Bioenergy Association of Ukraine. CEC 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 201314 15 16 17 2014 18 19 20 201521 22 23 2013 11 201344 14 27 201443 279 3544 14579 2015 30259 43959 54087 57114 56161 50160 40165 28587 18246 8685 2322 540 24 53 69 80000 2014 60 58 58 64 77 439 3590 15792 33325 50848 626716000069034 69119 62379 49995 35955 22156 10308 3205 760 122 95 79 Table 3.9 2 015Basic costs35 of 42industrial29 33 biomass35 335 boilers2204 10309 23312 35911 44942 48603 48657 45119 37457 27249 17469 8832 2702 559 86 55 43

70000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 50000 60000 Wood biomass 40000 Capital50000 expenditure, 145 142 140 138 136 134 134 145 40000 30000 EUR/kWelectr. 30000 Operating 20000 expenses,ВЕ С 7 20000 2013 19190 19348 19242 19099 19126 18886 18262 17317 16919 17048 17718 17991 18596 18874 19153 19342 19176 18656 18364 17975 18179 18435 18848 EUR/kWelectr. 2014 46668 47008 45943 46315 46314 46293 46147 44786 44249 44109 44495 45447 47062 47233 47683 48054 47892 47604 47738 47280 47173 46770 47079 2015 39777 39900 39882 38989 38976 38163 36645 33722 31941 32543 335481000034912 36060 36976 36812 36595 36551 36158 35306 35255 36508 37906 38678 CP, %10000 83

ICUF, % 0 60 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Life time, 40 years b. WPPs Waste of the agri-industrial complex, etc. Figure 3.1 Distribution of annual average daily electricity Capital production by SPPs (a) and WPPs (b) in Ukraine in 2013-2015 expenditure, 270 260 250 240 230 220 220 270 Units: vertical axis – thousand kWh, horizontal axis – hours. Source: prepared by the authors based on the data of NEC “Ukrenergo”. EUR/kWelectr. Operating If distribution of electricity production by SPPs and expenses, 7 WPPs in Ukraine is presented as monthly average (Figures 3.2-

EUR/kWelectr. 3.3), balancing problem looks more complicated, but equally CP, % 80 acceptable for choosing the algorithm (method) for calculating required balancing capacity. ICUF, % 60 However, it is necessary to examine daily electricity Life time, production by SPPs and WPPs. Figures 3.4-3.5 illustrate a 40 years significant fluctuation throughout the year.

Source: prepared by the authors based on data of the Bioenergy Association of Ukraine. In order to calculate the volume of balancing capacities in the form of batteries, an assumption (without taking into the legislative level (such as those used by the International account balancing potential of hydropower and bioenergy) Rivers Network54, WWF55, Greenpeace, Bankwatch56). In was made that they should ensure constant power production addition, after 2030 the feed-in-tariff will be abolished, so the by SPPs and WPPs during the day. In such case the amount construction of new mini-HPPs after 2030 is very questionable, of electricity accumulated by batteries should be equal to its as the latter will not be competative with the cost of WPP and production. To provide theoretical explanation of the proposed SPP that are getting cheaper rapidly. approach, Figure 3.6 shows the normalized schedule of SPPs electricity generation in Ukraine in 2015. It is assumed that at 3.5 Balancing WPP and SPP the time when the production of a SPP exceeds the weighted average value, the battery will be charging, and the battery Transition of the electricity sector to the use of RES (mainly will supply electricity to the grid if electricity production is wind and solar energy) by 90-100% will require the necessary

54 https://www.internationalrivers.org/ 55 http://wwf.panda.org/uk/?285130/hydropower-Ukraine 56 https://bankwatch.org/publications/sustainability-criteria-hydropower-development 29 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101 112 123 413 514 615 716 817 918 1019 11 20 12 21 13 22 14 23 15 24 16 17 Jan18 19 Feb 20 Mar21 22 Apr 23 May24 Jun Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jan 2 0 0 2 0 0 2 Jan66 Jan 840 Feb 1308599 Mar1580603 1649601 Apr 1646624 May6151221 605545 Jun 61190 606 Jan0 598 9 Feb589 0 593 Mar0 666 0 Apr673 0 637 May0 630 2 Jun630 628 647 637 616 597 562 597 590 Feb 982 988 1004 990 967 943 971 997 980 994 1000 1029 1061 1031 1038 1012 972 Jul986 997 Aug 979 1000Sept 1003 Oct 1001 1004 Nov Dec Jul Feb Aug 0 Sept0 0Oct 0 Nov 0 Dec0 8 Jul 346Jul 1261 Aug Aug2129 Sept2459 Sept 2459 Oct Oct 2577 Nov 2155Nov 1472 Dec Dec 497 Jul 33Jul 0 Aug Aug 0 Sept Sept0 0 Oct Oct 0 Nov Nov0 0 Dec Dec Mar 0 0 8 8 8 12 308 1305 Mar 2332 13503008 13663564 13463665 13053656 12992990 13102294 13531402 1326418 141619 1455 0 1498 0 1503 0 1553 0 1562 0 1515 0 1499 1438 1387 1394 1379 1363 1343 1391 1393 6000 6000 10000 Apr -1 1 0 0 2 9 2951000060001301 Apr 2462 15833581 15704514 15814863 14944922 14424699 13714221 14113348 1000013182226 12541050 1262230 129918 1349 2 1416 1 1477 3 1563 0 1560 1477 1439 1361 1364 1403 1519 1506 1724 9000 May 2 2 2 0 0 61 808 2343 May 3917 16245196 15936154 15996464 15916414 16786156 16685615 15484406 900013933237 13491676 1352424 147570 1514 1 1569 4 1667 0 1685 0 1700 1667 1585 1564 1387 1531 1545 1680 2022 9000 Jun 1196 1224 1276 1271 1329 1306 1077 926 841 897 984 1019 1134 1163 1228 1332 1343 1187 1109 991 1004 20151090 1099 1222 8000 Jun 0 0 0 0 0 84 793 50002246 3802 4882 5670 5872 5650 5445 4711 3769 800050002899 1619 564 149 7 2 3 0 5000 Jul 0 0 0 0 0 55 649 80002063 Jul 3712 16704912 17325947 17025945 16835880 16275615 15355075 13124137 10763170 10501936 1060665 1044245 1130 0 1205 0 1314 0 1381 0 1436 1463 1432 1351 1275 1325 1412 1537 1602 7000 Aug 2 0 20130 0 0 11 402 70001836 Aug 3597 16225144 16766054 17216545 17476431 17166153 17425293 16644397 700014862998 13471537 1300336 139119 1464 2 1430 4 1463 0 1542 0 1573 1572 1466 1422 1324 1209 1177 1261 1378 4000 4000 6000 Sept 6 41 4 17 33 47 157 40001065 Sept 2530 20013808 20854820 19545406 19445325 19445063 18964522 18203652 600017692231 1675742 1770101 201437 2124201512 2241 33 2317 45 2328 37 2328 2320 2071 1983 2000 2064 2102 2086 2113 6000 Oct 1911 1838 1824 1853 1827 1821 1752 1775 1774 1858 1916 1868 1918 1872 1873 1824 1732 1733 1801 1825 1846 1885 1887 1897 Oct 0 0 0 0 0 0 47 841 2128 3421 4711 5066 5416 4868 3959 2490 1014 97 2 2 0 9 0 0 5000 5000 Nov 1878 1896 1877 1854 1876 1831 1839 50001839 1830 1792 1838 1736 1789 1799 1734 1777 1832 1832 1861 1884 1857 1849 1880 1846 Nov 0 0 0 0 0 0 75 898 2549 3799 4537 20134694 4275 3274 1515 269 300015 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3000 4000 3000 Dec 2774 2777 2757 2743 2806 2858 2904 40002806 2805 2719 2666 2589 2607 2572 2636 2671 2732 2891 2884 2951 2980 2948 2923 2954 Dec 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4000 269 1129 2771 4077 4486 3969 2521 943 130 5 0 0 0 0 0 18 0 2013 рік 19190 19348 19242 19099 19126 18886 18262 17317 16919 17048 17718 17991 18596 18874 19153 19342 19176 18656 18364 17975 18179 18435 18848 19745 3000 2013 рік 11 44 14 27 43 279 3544 300014579 30259 43959 54087 57114 56161 50160 40165 28587 300018246 8685 2322 540 24 53 69 39 Jan 4158 4273 4210 4248 4285 4468 4420 44392000 4597 4533 4486 4480 4447 4403 4201 4212 4269 20004343 4308 4245 4227 4224 4260 4288 Jan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2000214 962 2066 2896 3090 2718 2044 964 341 2000 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2000 2000 Feb 3048 3068 3064 3052 3084 2976 2995 3102 3242 3219 3123 3094 3122 2984 2911 2828 2914 2830 2972 3074 3171 3215 3215 3135 Feb 30 28 29 28 28 30 82 727 2068 3365 4311 4700 4611 4050 2925 1352 312 42 31 32 35 31 31 29 1000 Mar 4692 4778 4674 4918 5025 5148 5073 10004668 4753 4773 4865 501320145139 5239 5224 5409 5283 4983 5036 5005 5088 5156 5204 4987 Mar 4 4 4 4 4 12 731 10002642 4477 6090 7189 7727 7821 6937 5714 3755 10001528 298 48 7 4 4 4 4 1000 1000 Apr 3608 3491 3316 3438 3350 3422 3381 3281 3180 3221 3262 3258 3356 3250 3226 3267 3248 3458 3320 3228 3256 3127 3295 3422 0 Apr 10 10 9 10 10 12 195 01033 2201 3338 410120144578 4660 4434 3848 3310 22010 1108 293 14 9 9 9 9 May 2613 2683 2567 2457 2504 2460 2356 2099 2283 2236 2329 2395 2506 2728 2843 2967 3162 3137 2893 2725 2745 2560 2585 2544 1May2 3 4 5 6 74 8 9 104 11 12 134 14 15 1610 17 18 192120 21 11522 23 24 489 15741 2 27783 4 5 39966 7 8 9459710 11 12488413 14 15500816 17 18495119 20 21414022 23 243613 26261 2 15303 4 5 65687 8 915410 11 12 136 14 15 164 17 18 1914 20 21 22423 24 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 0 17 Jun 18 298419 284520 305721 306122 294123 295024 2666 26910 2803 2959 3158 3302 3484 3617 3852 3913 3603 03460 3232 3093 2956 2888 2970 3068 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jan Jul Feb 3835 3928 Mar 3868 Apr3784 3685 May 3571 Jun3394 3169 2944 3069 3020 3086 3636 3476 3746 3928 3764 3496 3531 3454 3427 3347 3522 3610 Jan 2 0 0 2 0 0 2 66 840 1308 1580 1649 1646 1221 545 90 0 1 2 3 94 5 6 07 8 9 010 11 12 013 14 15 016 17 18 019 20 21 222 23 24 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Feb 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 346 1261 2129 2459 2459 2577 2155 1472 497 33 Aug 0 31300 30660 29250 30090 30180 29390 2910 2552 2270 2453 2568 2710 2845 2960 3124 3077 3155 3215 3079 2823 2808 2803 2758 2929 Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec JulJan Aug Feb 1 Sept Mar2 3 Oct Apr 4 Nov May5 6 Dec Jun 7 8Jul Jan 9 Aug Feb10 11 SeptMar 12 OctApr13 14 NovMay 15 JunDec16 17 Jan18 19 Feb 20 Mar21 22 Apr 23 May24 Jun Mar 0 0 8 8 8 12 308 1305 Jan 2332 5993008 6033564 6013665 6243656 6152990 6052294 6111402 606418 598 19 589 0 593 0 666 0 673 0 637 0 630 0 630 628 647 637 616 597 562 597 590 10000 10000 Apr -1 1 0 0 2 9 295100001301 Jul Feb 2462 Aug 9823581 9884514Sept 10044863 Oct 9904922 967Nov4699 9434221 Dec 9713348 9972226 Jul 9801050 Aug994230 1000 Sept18 1029 2 1061Oct 1 1031 Nov3 1038 0 1012Dec 972 Jul986 997 Aug 979 1000Sept 1003 Oct 1001 1004 Nov Dec 9000 May 2 2 2 0 0 61 808 90002343 Mar 3917 13505196 13666154 13466464 13056414 12996156 13105615 13534406 900013263237 14161676 1455424 1498 70 1503 1 1553 4 1562 0 1515 0 1499 1438 1387 1394 1379 1363 1343 1391 1393 Jun 0 0 0 0 0 84 793 60002246 Apr 3802 15834882 15705670 15815872 14945650 14425445 13714711 14113769 131860002899 12541619 1262564 1299149 1349 7 1416 2 1477 3 1563 0 1560 1477 60001439 1361 1364 1403 1519 1506 1724 8000 8000 8000 Jul 0 0 0 0 0 55 649 2063 May 3712 16244912 15935947 15995945 15915880 16785615 16685075 15484137 13933170 13491936 1352665 1475245 1514 0 1569 0 1667 0 1685 0 1700 1667 1585 1564 1387 1531 1545 1680 2022 7000 Aug 2 0 20130 0 0 11 402 70001836 Jun 3597 11965144 12246054 12766545 12716431 13296153 13065293 10774397 70009262998 8411537 897336 984 19 1019 2 1134 4 1163 0 1228 0 1332 1343 1187 1109 991 1004 20151090 1099 1222 5000 5000 5000 6000 Sept 6 41 4 17 33 47 157 60001065 Jul 2530 16703808 17324820 17025406 16835325 16275063 15354522 13123652 600010762231 1050742 1060101 1044 37 1130201512 1205 33 1314 45 1381 37 1436 1463 1432 1351 1275 1325 1412 1537 1602 Oct 0 0 0 0 0 0 47 841 Aug 2128 16223421 16764711 17215066 17475416 17164868 17423959 16642490 14861014 1347 97 1300 2 1391 2 1464 0 1430 9 1463 0 1542 0 1573 1572 1466 1422 1324 1209 1177 1261 1378 5000 5000 5000 Nov 0 0 0 0 0 0 75 4000 898 Sept 2549 20013799 20854537 19544694 19444275 19443274 18961515 1820269 17694000 15 1675 0 1770 0 2014 0 2124 0 2241 0 2317 0 2328 0 2328 2320 40002071 1983 2000 2064 2102 2086 2113 4000 4000 Dec 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4000 269 Oct 1129 19112771 18384077 18244486 18533969 18272521 1821943 1752130 1775 5 1774 0 1858 0 1916 0 1868 0 1918 0 1872 18 1873 0 1824 1732 1733 1801 1825 1846 1885 1887 1897 3000 Nov 1878 1896 1877 1854 1876 1831 1839 30001839 1830 1792 1838 1736 1789 1799 1734 1777 1832 1832 1861 1884 1857 1849 1880 1846 2013 рік 11 44 14 27 43 279 3544 300014579 30259 43959 54087201357114 56161 50160 40165 28587 300018246 8685 2322 540 24 53 69 39 3000 3000 Dec 2774 2777 2757 2743 2806 2858 2904 2806 2805 2719 2666 2589 2607 2572 2636 2671 2732 2891 2884 2951 2980 2948 2923 2954 2000 Jan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2000 214 962 2066 2896 3090 2718 2044 964 341 2000 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feb 30 28 29 28 28 30 82 7272013 рік2068 191903365 193484311 192424700 190994611 191264050 188862925 182621352 17317312 16919 42 17048 31 17718 3217991 3518596 3118874 3119153 2919342 19176 18656 18364 17975 18179 18435 18848 19745 1000 1000 1000 Mar 4 4 4 4 4 12 731 20002642 Jan 4477 41586090 42737189 42107727 42487821 42856937 44685714 44203755 443920001528 4597298 4533 48 4486 7 4480 4 4447 4 4403 4 4201 4 4212 4269 20004343 4308 4245 4227 4224 4260 4288 0 Apr 10 10 9 10 10 12 195 01033 Feb 2201 30483338 30684101201430644578 30524660 30844434 29763848 29953310 310222010 32421108 3219293 3123 14 3094 9 3122 9 2984 9 2911 9 2828 2914 2830 2972 3074 3171 3215 3215 3135 1May2 3 4 5 6 74 8 9 104 11 12 134 14 15 1610 17 18 192120 21 11522 23 24 489 1574 Mar1 2 27783 4 5 469239966 7 8 47789459710 11467412488413 14491815500816 17 502518495119 20 514821414022 23 5073243613 466826261 47532 15303 4 47735 65687 48658 915410 115013201412 136 14513915 164 17523918 1914 20522421 22423540924 5283 4983 5036 5005 5088 5156 5204 4987 1000 1000 1000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Apr 18 360819 349120 331621 343822 335023 342224 3381 3281 3180 3221 3262 3258 3356 3250 3226 3267 3248 3458 3320 3228 3256 3127 3295 3422 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun May 2613 2683 2567 2457 2504 2460 2356 2099 2283 2236 2329 2395 2506 2728 2843 2967 3162 3137 2893 2725 2745 2560 2585 2544 Jan 2 0 0 2 0 0 2 Jan66 840 Feb 1308 Mar1580 1649 Apr 1646 May1221 545 Jun 90 Jan0 9 Feb 0 Mar0 0 Apr 0 May0 2 Jun Jun 2984 2845 3057 3061 2941 2950 2666 26910 2803 2959 3158 3302 3484 3617 3852 3913 3603 3460 3232 3093 2956 2888 2970 3068 Jul Feb Aug 0 Sept0 0Oct 0 Nov 0 Dec0 8 346 1261 2129 2459 2459 2577 2155 1472 497 0 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jul Jul Aug3835 3928 Sept 3868 Oct3784 3685 Nov 3571 Dec3394 3169 2944 3069 3020 3086 3636 3476 3746 3928 3764 3496 3531 3454 3427 3347 3522 3610 Mar 0 0 8 8 8 12 308 1305 2332 3008 3564 3665 3656 2990 2294 1402 4181 2 3194 5 6 07 8 9 100 11 12 130 14 15 160 17 18 190 20 21 220 23 24 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10000 Aug 3130 3066 2925 3009 3018 2939 2910 2552 2270 2453 2568 2710 2845 2960 3124 3077 3155 3215 3079 2823 2808 2803 2758 2929 10000 Apr -1 1 0 0 2 9 29510000 Jan1301 2462 Feb 13581 Mar2 4514 3 4863 Apr 4 4922 May5 4699 6 4221 Jun 7 3348 8 Jan2226 9 1050 Feb10 230 11 Mar 18 12 Apr2 13 1 14 May 315 Jun016 17 Jan18 19 Feb 20 Mar21 22 Apr 23 May24 Jun 9000 May 2 2 2 0 0 61 808 9000 J2343an 3917 5995196 603 6154 601 6464 624 6414 615 6156605 5615611 440660690003237598 1676589 424593 70666 1673 6374 6300 6300 628 647 637 616 597 562 597 590 Feb 982 988 1004 990 967 943 971 997 980 994 1000 1029 1061 1031 1038 1012 972 Jul986 997 Aug 979 1000Sept 1003 Oct 1001 1004 Nov Dec 8000 Jun 0 0 0 0 0 84 793 Jul 2246 3802 Aug 4882 Sept5670 5872 Oct 5650 Nov 5445 4711Dec 3769 8000 Jul2899 1619 Aug 564 Sept149 Oct7 2 Nov 3 Dec0 Jul 0 0 0 0 0 55 649 8000 Mar2063 3712135049121366 59471346 59451305 58801299 56151310 50751353 41371326 31701416 19361455 6651498 2451503 15530 15620 15150 14990 1438 1387 1394 1379 1363 1343 1391 1393 7000 Aug 2 0 20130 0 0 11 40260007000 Apr1836 3597158351441570 60541581 65451494 64311442 61531371 52931411 439713186000700029981254 15371262 3361299 191349 14162 14774 15630 15600 1477 60001439 1361 1364 1403 1519 1506 1724 6000 Sept 6 41 4 17 33 47 157 6000 May1065 2530162438081593 48201599 54061591 53251678 50631668 45221548 36521393600022311349 7421352 1011475 3715142015121569 331667 168545 170037 1667 1585 1564 1387 1531 1545 1680 2022 Oct 0 0 0 0 0 0 47 Jun841 2128119634211224 47111276 50661271 54161329 48681306 39591077 2490926 1014841 97897 2984 10192 11340 11639 12280 13320 1343 1187 1109 991 1004 20151090 1099 1222 5000 50005000 50005000 5000 Nov 0 0 0 0 0 0 75 Jul898 2549167037991732 45371702 46941683 42751627 32741535 15151312 2691076 151050 10600 10440 11300 12050 13140 13810 14360 1463 1432 1351 1275 1325 1412 1537 1602 4000 4000 Dec 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4000 Aug269 1129162227711676 40771721 44861747 39691716 25211742 9431664 1301486 13475 13000 13910 14640 14300 14630 154218 15730 1572 1466 1422 1324 1209 1177 1261 1378 3000 2013 рік 11 44 14 27 43 279 35444000300014579 Sept 30259200143959208554087195457114194456161194450160189640165182028587176940003000182461675 86851770 23222014 5402124 242241 231753 232869 232839 2320 40002071 1983 2000 2064 2102 2086 2113 Oct 1911 1838 1824 1853 1827 1821 1752 1775 1774 1858 1916 1868 1918 1872 1873 1824 1732 1733 1801 1825 1846 1885 1887 1897 2000 Jan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2000 214 962 2066 2896 3090 2718 2044 964 341 2000 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nov 1878 1896 20131877 1854 1876 1831 1839 1839 1830 1792 1838 1736 1789 1799 1734 1777 1832 1832 1861 1884 1857 1849 1880 1846 1000 Feb 30 28 29 28 28 30 300082 727 2068 3365 4311 4700 4611 4050 2925 135230001000312 42 31 32 35 31 31 29 3000 Mar 4 4 4 4 4 12 731 1000 Dec2642 4477277460902777 71892757 77272743 78212806 69372858 57142904 37552806 15282805 2982719 482666 25897 26074 25724 26364 26714 2732 2891 2884 2951 2980 2948 2923 2954 0 Apr 10 10 9 10 10 12 195 201301033 рік 220119190333819348 4101192422014457819099 466019126 443418886 384818262 331017317 22010 16919 110817048 29317718 1799114 185969 188749 191539 193429 19176 18656 18364 17975 18179 18435 18848 19745 1May2 3 4 5 6 74 8 9 104 11 12 134 14 15 1610 17 18 192120 21 11522 23 24 4892000 Jan15741 2 27783 441585 39966 742738 9459710421011 12488413424814 15500816428517 18495119446820 21414022442023 24361344392000 262645971 2 15303 45334 5 656844867 8 9154448010 11 12 4447136 14 15 4403164 17 18 19420114 20 21 224212423 24 4269 20004343 4308 4245 4227 4224 4260 4288 Feb 3048 3068 3064 3052 3084 2976 2995 3102 3242 3219 3123 3094 3122 2984 2911 2828 2914 2830 2972 3074 3171 3215 3215 3135 Mar 4692 4778 4674 4918 5025 5148 5073 4668Figure 47533.2. Distribution4773 4865 of50132014 monthly5139 5239 average5224 daily5409 electricity5283 4983 5036 5005 5088 5156 5204 4987 1000 1000 1000 Apr 3608 3491 3316 3438 3350 3422 3381 3281production3180 by3221 SPPs 3262in Ukraine3258 in 33562013-20153250 3226 3267 3248 3458 3320 3228 3256 3127 3295 3422 May 2613 2683 2567 2457 2504 2460 2356 2099 2283 2236 2329 2395 2506 2728 2843 2967 3162 3137 2893 2725 2745 2560 2585 2544 Units: vertical axis – thousand kWh, horizontal axis – hours. Source: prepared by the authors based on the data of NEC 0 Jun 2984 2845 3057 3061 2941 2950 2666 2691“Ukrenergo”.0 2803 2959 3158 3302 3484 3617 3852 3913 3603 03460 3232 3093 2956 2888 2970 3068 Jul 3835 3928 3868 3784 3685 3571 3394 3169 2944 3069 3020 3086 3636 3476 3746 3928 3764 3496 3531 3454 3427 3347 3522 3610 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Aug 3130 3066 2925 3009 3018 2939 2910 2552 2270 2453 2568 2710 2845 2960 3124 3077 3155 3215 3079 2823 2808 2803 2758 2929 below average. Thus, the area of the figure A is equal to the Figure 3.3 Distribution of monthly average daily electricity sum of areas of figures B and C. Figure 3.6 shows that storage production by WPPs in Ukraine in 2013-2015 capacity should be about 70% of the SPP capacity at the time Одиниці виміру: тис. кВт·год. (вертикаль), години (горизонталь). Використано дані станом на Units: vertical axis – thousand kWh, horizontal axis – hours. Source:2013 prepared рік. by the authors based on the data of NEC Одиниці виміру: тис. кВт·год. (вертикаль), години (горизонталь). Використано дані станом на 2014 рік. Одиниці виміру: тис. кВт·год. (вертикаль), години (горизонталь). Використано дані станом на 2015 рік. of maximum power production. “Ukrenergo”. Actual data show (Table 3.10) that the ratio of storage energy development scenarios for Ukraine by 2050 that capacities to the capacity of a SPP could vary from 63% to 91% the storage capacities of 0.74 kW for solar power plants, if the batteries are used according to the proposed principle. and 0.42 kW for wind power plants should be reserved The average value of this ratio is 75-77% for 2013-2015. for every 1 kW. Obviously, the need for implementation The situation with WPPs is a similar.Figure 3.7 shows the of storage technologies is not limited to RES balancing. normalized electricity production schedule for WPPs in Ukraine Batteries can also be used to ensure the reliability and in 2015. It is assumed that at the time when the production security of the energy system even at the current, rather of a WPP exceeds the weighted average value, the battery will low share of RES in the energy balance (a pilot project be charging, and the battery will supply electricity to the grid if is being carried out in Odesa region57). However, the electricity production is below average. Thus, the area of the rapid growth of WPPs and SPPs itself will be the greatest figures A and B is equal to the sum of areas of figures C and D. challenge for the energy system, so the balancing of wind It is calculated that at the time of maximum power generation, and solar energy is considered as a priority in this study. A storage capacity should be about 40% of the WPP capacity. comprehensive solution to the problem of energy storage Actual data of the operation of WPPs in Ukraine needs requires further research, taking into account the Одиниці виміру: тис. кВт·год. (вертикаль), години (горизонталь). Використано дані станом на in 2013-2015 (Table 3.11) show that2013 theрік. ratio of capacity of technical andОдиниці economic виміру: тис. characteristics кВт·год. (вертикаль), години of (горизонталь).a wide range Використано of дані станом на 2014 рік. Одиниці виміру: тис. кВт·год. (вертикаль), години (горизонталь). Використано дані станом на 2015 рік. accumulators to capacity of the WPP could fluctuate from 9% storage technologies. to 94% if accumulators are used according to the proposed To model the Liberal and Revolutionary Scenarios, principle. The average value of this ratio is 47-54% for 2013-2015. the following assumptions (Table 3.12) on the cost of storage Taking into account results of the analysis presented technologies (stationary lithium-ion batteries) was used in this above, it is assumed for modeling of the long-term study, taking into account study by Child et al. (2016)58.

57 http://itc.ua/news/mask-v-ochered-koreyskaya-kompaniya-kokam-obsudila-s-minenergouglya-i-gosenergoeffektivnosti-voprosyi-stroitelstva-rezervnyih-hranilishh-energii-v-ukraine/ 58 M.Child, D.Bogdanov and C.Breyer “Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine”, 2016 30

Одиниці виміру: тис. кВт·год. (вертикаль), години (горизонталь). Використано дані станом на 2013 рік. Одиниці виміру: тис. кВт·год. (вертикаль), години (горизонталь). Використано дані станом на 2014 рік. Одиниці виміру: тис. кВт·год. (вертикаль), години (горизонталь). Використано дані станом на 2015 рік. 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 1 730 144 386 1 496 2628 2142 3500 8000 2 706 206 150 2 261 3215 1938 3 61 476 518 3 106 2028 4610 4 427 356 334 7000 4 590 330 3919 3000 5 173 292 324 5 355 1395 1806 6 129 371 432 6 428 2779 3347 7 416 278 832 6000 7 260 2053 5971 2500 8 187 697 930 8 369 847 2523 9 37 354 295 9 396 2062 3576 10 137 445 419 5000 10 657 3268 3376 11 156 1270 419 2000 11 375 5155 4377 12 176 544 482 12 614 4721 3784 13 152 1139 911 4000 13 716 5144 4722 14 410 1344 950 14 472 2884 2933 150015 783 1180 288 15 661 3655 877 16 727 299 104 3000 16 507 4110 556 17 147 747 234 17 586 1739 1590 100018 88 384 249 18 366 3078 2626 19 105 427 254 2000 19 507 2065 1633 20 184 94 131 20 743 4990 1048 50021 593 168 119 21 766 5006 994 22 241 114 126 1000 22 819 4599 2293 23 289 168 370 23 991 3339 4526 24 585 1622 5294 024 694 202 58 0 25 943 3298 4846 25 1 8 149 862 62 1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99

26 15 81722 29 36 476643 50 57 64 293371 78 85 92 99 26 84 437 83 106 113 120 127 134 141 148 155 162 169 176 183 190 197 204 211 218 225 232 239 246 253 260 267 274 281 288 295 302 309 316 323 330 337 344 351 358 365 106 113 120 127 134 141 148 155 162 169 176 183 190 197 204 211 218 225 232 239 246 253 260 267 274 281 288 295 302 309 316 323 330 337 344 351 358 365 27 157 407 221 27 204 3979 1613 28 99 193 72 28 9 5069 2575 29 109 281 454 29 6 5302 1370 Figure30 325 3.4477 Daily168 electricity productionОдиниці by виміру: тис.SPPs кВт·год. (вертикаль), in дні Ukraine року (горизонталь). in Figure30 03.54547 Daily3233 electricity production by WPPs in Ukraine 31 149 4351 5758 Одиниці виміру: тис. кВт·год. (вертикаль), дні року (горизонталь). 31 291 970 348 32 148 4590 4861 32 408 1217 94 2013-2015 in 2013-201533 488 4656 3348 33 952 1038 129 34 762 5213 1929 34 199 1297 254 Units: vertical axis – thousand kWh, horizontal axis – days of the year. Source: prepared by the authors based on the data Units: 35vertical1030 axis 1988– thousand2937 kWh, horizontal axis – days of the year. Source: prepared by the authors based on the data 35 237 1214 1026 36 859 518 4120 of NEC36 “Ukrenergo”.891 1398 875 of NEC “Ukrenergo”. 37 254 490 2824 37 903 1339 96 38 649 97 2178 38 475 1140 672 39 976 907 2850 1.039 887 865 400 40 1121 2592 1973 40 204 1292 Графік958 доопрацьовувався ще у Photoshop 41 912 2748 1469 41 505 616 816 42 408 1164 Графік4414 доопрацьовувався ще у Photoshop 0.942 187 1453 587 1.043 902 2697 3568 43 339 1476 1301 44 325 2692 1482 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 44 949 1286 1298 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 45 8899 1068 102012 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 45 582 1695 554 46 1290 663 1512 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.846 204 2015899 396 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 47 0.51216 578 0.74436 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 47 62 567 401 48 397 1591 5209 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 48 Середнє109 1570 13820.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 1.049 0.30121 18850.303027 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.749 274 801 1427 50 115 2485 1107 50 508 1110 443 51 304А2438 808 51 900 630 231 52 211 1748 1141 B 0.652 850 1852 1205 53 917 4870 2594 53 289 1283 1216 А 54 1838 5312 4376 54 161 1183 402 0.955 1762 5862 5038 0.555 516 410 147 56 1384 6011 5028 56 426 388 309 57 1859 5024 4048 D 57 696 211 347 58 1951 2983 3429 58 1189 252 925 59 841 568 3144 0.459 1494 425 619 60 702 968 966 60 1315 434 165 0.961 1073 4223 577 C 61 514 458 325 62 665 4646 3663 0.362 1252 1411 203 63 1470 5256 4223 63 1327 496 1367 64 1141 2798 2506 64 987 1217 917 65 1520 2733 658 0.265 1599 764 255 66 1641 5701 2039 66 1003 420 1134 0.867 1464 6723 1039 67 502 829 1521 68 914 5584 686 68 396 697 1602 69 1102 5954 2296 70 414 3879 3893 0.169 604 1775 1053 В 71 722 5249 1548 70 777 1332 347 С 72 206 2913 2534 71 229 2399 592 73 720 3855 4073 0.072 414 2529 218 0.874 922 4356 5629 73 816 2043 842 75 1472 5917 5707 74 541 2591 1104 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 76 1 9002 366304 59765 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 75 818 1498 1557 77 806 5366 5738 76 1270 2173 1396 78 1184 4714 5066 77 1618 2680 423 79 956 4142 4615 Figure78 355 3.61385 Normalized777 schedule of power generation by SPPs Figure80 1284 3.72682 Normalized1987 schedule of power generation by WPPs 79 1545 2076 356 81 808 1872 3814 80 1269 2727 1328 82 1587 987 3756 in 81Ukraine540 2643 in 14972015 in Ukraine83 1620 826in 20151635 82 227 Одиниці2410 1588 виміру: одиниць (вертикаль), години (горизонталь). 84 1389 4433 1114 Units:83 vertical901 axis2519 – units,1753 horizontal axis – hours. Source: prepared by the authors based on the data of NEC “Ukrenergo”. Units: 85vertical1664 axis –3000 units, 1512horizontal axis – hours. Source: prepared by the authors based on the data of NEC “Ukrenergo”. 84 1285 1946 1657 86 741 980 3675 85 238 1531 1184 87 1105 937 6018 86 193 1854 344 88 987 4883 6051 Table87 2703.101652 Ratio200 of capacity of accumulators to capacity Table89 10233.112949 Ratio3565 of capacity of accumulators to capacity 88 333 2628 233 90 1542 4977 5766 Одиниці виміру: одиниць (вертикаль), години (горизонталь). of89 SPP,936 % 3006 755 of WPP,91 780 %5090 3852 90 923 2889 832 92 879 2518 2481 91 975 2249 1011 93 659 1477 4105 92 631 2661 1179 94 314 2790 5209 93 1189 1010 969 95 684 3499 3228 94 516 989 930 2013 2014 2015 Average value 96 1061 3278 2899 2013 2014 2015 Average value 95 971 409 1350 97 1047 1658 5255 96 1620 523 447 98 1083 1553 3814 97 496 1064 210 99 1243 2725 5054 Maximum98 214 1629 value1382 93% 88% 88% 90% Maximum100 628 value2549 3723 94% 73% 85% 84% 99 530 1555 1613 101 134 5052 1711 100 773 451 1769 102 153 5558 1123 101 856 403 1696 103 615 2259 1455 Minimum102 1207 value531 1653 64% 63% 64% 64% Minimum104 254 value1351 1671 5% 3% 4% 4% 103 1558 521 1563 105 982 1206 2884 104 815 1253 1301 106 1747 932 3764 105 977 1290 1195 107 2081 2164 2611 Average106 1950 value663 1434 75% 74% 74% 74% Average108 1670 value5161 2628 41% 38% 47% 42% 109 1165 4676 3002 107 1890 882 1492 110 1009 2101 4953 108 1667 1406 528 111 1269 1010 2876 109 1707 1505 1227 Source: calculations of the authors based on the data of NEC “Ukrenergo”. Source:112 calculations766 502of the 1152authors based on the data of NEC “Ukrenergo”. 110 961 1558 658 113 1741 765 3175 111 1472 1604 1070 114 2826 1410 6127 112 1340 1275 961 115 2101 4670 5394 Table113 1812 3.121224 Cost1707 of storage technologies, EUR/kW 116 1766 3389 2096 114 1775 771 1735 117 1827 2799 1046 115 1612 781 1691 118 1941 3718 871 116 1667 1602 1661 119 1538 1454 1726 117 1754 1782 1707 2015 2020 2030 2050 120 780 2347 1174 118 1742 1324 1283 121 265 1131 1440 119 1711 1377 1054 122 630 1193 1801 120 1359 1119 1256 123 927 1088 1751 Storage121 1765 technologies1353 1319 600 300 150 75 124 975 1893 2278 122 1772 1258 1024 125 805 1601 1029 123 1757 1461 986 126 1495 2007 2486 Source:124 prepared1777 based390 on1539 the data published in the study by M. Child, D. Bogdanov and C. Breyer “Transition towards a 100% 127 1721 902 2202 125 1677 701 1377 128 1884 4369 2229 renewable126 1777 energy 1765system by1532 2050 for Ukraine”, 2016. 129 1779 5522 2982 127 1851 1820 644 130 2072 3028 1302 128 1946 1798 1572 131 2691 1113 610 129 1931 617 1566 132 2582 746 593 130 1948 576 1444 133 1043 737 1056 131 1832 1624 1203 134 368 605 2877 132 1652 1092 1524 135 122 2055 4320 133 1621 1692 1597 136 527 1255 3510 134 1300 361 1238 137 381 956 4373 135 1434 941 1463 138 645 3438 3322 136 1513 1355 1149 139 330 1034 1180 137 1677 1065 1582 140 343 1467 1542 138 1376 1348 1603 141 571 4574 4881 139 1329 1366 1544 142 1016 4278 4965 140 1754 1663 1734 143 1934 3984 5157 141 1730 1122 1587 144 1739 2461 2483 142 1820 2675 1733 145 1949 1658 883 143 1441 1003 1587 146 1301 1575 894 144 1670 1550 1737 147 1306 1199 517 148 1737 936 1365 145 1679 1501 1461 149 1151 1283 2158 146 1862 2233 1439 150 1899 1799 1066 147 1842 1832 1515 151 1798 2490 1554 148 1972 1685 997 152 1194 2772 1769 149 1934 1880 1078 153 1176 2180 960 150 1697 535 1545 154 1306 4194 547 151 1616 832 1486 155 463 3277 694 152 1866 715 1490 156 1023 3645 1569 153 1858 1365 1528 157 546 4741 4439 154 891 1239 1302 158 193 3460 3722 155 953 1082 1292 159 96 2734 3641 156 1837 635 1463 160 197 1896 3487 157 1918 1713 1798 161 402 1674 1189 158 1697 2783 1807 162 479 2771 2558 159 1176 2886 1782 163 1068 3717 2032 160 1415 2671 1605 164 1417 2174 996 161 1749 2707 1196 165 1682 2744 813 162 1840 2742 1651 166 1426 1793 923 163 1765 1567 1526 167 989 1403 534 164 1205 1273 1732 168 603 1072 669 165 1252 1506 1717 169 2393 772 736 166 1135 1346 1580 170 1722 1453 859 167 1398 983 1178 171 1146 3003 642 168 1847 408 715 172 1163 3386 393 169 2024 1065 1247 173 1418 1953 367 170 1879 1125 1555 174 588 1521 258 171 1920 955 1576 175 276 1565 439 172 1989 1223 1370 176 309 1095 1028 173 2006 1368 958 177 869 2532 1642 174 1821 1481 1595 178 514 4443 2775 175 1062 1033 1566 179 542 2300 1966 176 1730 1573 1177 180 1224 1189 1012 177 1664 1196 1052 181 824 4094 699 178 1881 1332 1500 182 971 3749 662 179 1848 1711 1340 183 1117 2303 2553 180 1703 1703 1474 184 1007 1851 1410 181 838 1729 1315 185 947 3158 3744 182 971 1412 1499 186 1175 2709 1890 187 1431 1519 598 183 1106 1730 1136 188 1448 2524 605 184 951 1455 1088 189 1028 2716 523 185 1055 1248 740 190 1132 2473 430 186 1859 1475 1182 191 741 622 1578 187 1911 1624 1660 192 421 1212 3585 188 1701 1323 1609 193 340 2140 2370 189 1361 1677 1557 194 368 1922 1406 190 1946 1667 1630 195 1041 3149 931 191 1618 1451 819 196 601 3558 1555 31 192 1510 1255 1623 197 818 3775 1365 193 1625 1559 1423 198 977 5151 1729 194 1531 1451 1515 199 1314 2935 3976 195 1770 1558 851 200 1669 2798 1240 196 1975 1281 1567 201 778 2831 489 197 1715 1245 1648 202 1133 1854 1838 198 1529 979 1569 203 1164 845 911 199 1790 1258 1648 204 1588 1476 1121 200 1803 1278 1659 205 2278 2502 191 201 1826 1319 1653 206 1376 2940 3685 202 1575 1501 1681 207 1355 3472 2296 203 1926 1445 1608 208 1246 4462 1445 204 2131 1019 1585 209 968 3726 1090 205 1913 989 1610 210 1395 2948 269 206 1781 1407 1610 211 931 3038 395 207 1600 1554 1294 212 596 3932 866 208 1363 1533 1520 213 839 4333 4639 209 1560 1637 1400 214 1131 5559 2627 210 1155 1499 1383 215 1716 5773 3713 211 1848 1617 1528 216 1662 3513 3983 212 1601 1598 1151 217 1813 2060 3182 213 1752 1592 1667 218 1166 1454 3001 214 1715 1457 1684 219 890 1314 2693 215 1832 1583 1629 220 724 1223 3767 216 1970 1667 1406 221 521 1060 3170 217 1865 1099 1536 222 476 1303 2348 218 1683 1136 1528 223 807 1434 2868 219 1420 1213 1620 224 956 905 2983 220 1757 1427 1644 225 673 1037 3353 226 321 898 1216 221 1468 1596 1646 227 654 1588 1059 222 1842 2179 1519 228 1805 1641 1481 223 1520 2185 1397 229 2100 3346 1008 224 1647 1617 699 230 1926 4348 1894 225 1589 2427 738 231 1507 3334 1043 226 1635 2888 1080 232 960 1771 2433 227 1644 2800 1267 233 1078 1219 2745 228 1779 2632 1488 234 1232 1632 3206 229 1840 1584 1027 235 1185 2118 3070 230 1747 1970 542 236 1115 1710 2180 231 1644 3029 467 237 1539 2104 2684 232 1558 2833 359 238 763 1801 723 233 1638 2734 1170 239 546 1442 896 234 1586 2215 1212 240 408 3263 438 235 1316 2284 574 241 1725 2291 785 236 1885 1748 1378 242 1482 1125 2691 237 1602 2620 1489 243 1973 2527 1218 238 1767 2551 1445 244 1415 4742 2374 239 1267 2686 1417 245 1277 5796 1095 240 1266 2423 1418 246 1657 6100 760 241 1580 2785 1412 247 2253 6785 536 242 1208 2741 1419 248 2205 7074 415 243 1739 2815 1457 249 1910 6177 2237 244 1820 2721 1513 250 872 4768 1437 245 1456 2591 1542 251 1329 2236 489 246 1544 2145 1419 252 847 1708 1053 247 1668 2393 1409 253 679 1049 1626 248 1432 2844 1284 254 539 2300 2797 249 1880 2743 909 255 407 1567 4974 250 976 1662 1502 256 1870 1320 4591 251 1375 2413 1201 257 2387 1653 1574 252 1973 2672 1191 258 2863 2519 421 253 1220 2320 766 259 1821 4527 862 254 1721 2116 629 260 599 5268 2105 255 1429 2329 248 261 991 6670 2318 256 1240 2657 1152 262 1142 6430 3153 257 837 2503 1403 263 2075 4257 2119 258 543 2344 1354 264 1657 3611 1660 265 1337 2309 1176 259 1547 2813 1462 266 2220 4245 2023 260 1676 2656 1240 267 3395 5755 1482 261 930 2721 1374 268 3284 4089 1730 262 1596 2095 1408 269 2298 555 2500 263 1461 1878 1467 270 2747 1547 1635 264 1734 1347 1389 271 1742 4160 1725 265 1089 1260 1332 272 807 2195 2552 266 1104 923 1079 273 324 1650 2317 267 1171 2046 642 274 2659 3070 2670 268 1089 2867 967 275 3505 2212 1444 269 846 1414 1134 276 4129 2369 1744 270 1277 1131 958 277 4345 1767 527 271 1064 2237 742 278 2112 926 100 272 1426 2796 387 279 1133 4190 268 273 610 2478 393 280 362 5584 3884 274 140 1662 241 281 197 5613 1365 275 235 1990 1327 282 449 3071 334 276 420 1991 1314 283 999 2247 493 277 389 2311 1254 284 850 1562 3380 278 703 2607 1186 285 601 1278 5718 279 969 2421 721 286 639 562 5588 280 1543 1088 913 287 454 298 2872 281 1899 1992 1410 288 221 627 1494 282 1790 2512 517 289 604 3025 3041 283 1244 2385 349 290 1951 1988 4687 284 1322 2333 164 291 2620 4431 1140 285 1570 2288 230 292 3068 2761 345 286 1148 1995 399 293 1532 3822 2309 287 621 2232 1237 294 1994 4802 5240 288 487 1901 1059 295 1679 1944 1763 289 1341 1031 564 296 1812 4729 1185 290 298 1866 609 297 2039 6842 847 291 374 793 1090 298 658 6675 610 292 833 2285 790 299 152 6597 1740 293 1945 2200 140 300 946 6912 1623 294 1746 1207 722 301 973 6465 1129 295 1461 1331 405 302 658 5220 1356 296 878 908 925 303 92 4823 2065 304 677 2812 2613 297 1383 305 623 305 997 3796 623 298 1815 1315 843 306 656 3547 3081 299 1298 1521 719 307 751 1341 915 300 1206 2121 1192 308 1251 1079 42 301 1276 570 1260 309 1900 2239 466 302 1530 1190 1007 310 1712 1836 582 303 1105 1257 1057 311 1760 1121 359 304 1102 1325 1257 312 1359 2319 375 305 1591 1170 1251 313 1060 4150 934 306 1408 1624 977 314 1380 4166 2274 307 762 2032 1051 315 1209 2906 4185 308 1206 1964 1034 316 600 1745 3722 309 1391 2055 884 317 385 2854 3909 310 1578 1949 114 318 848 3519 2382 311 883 1400 110 319 1481 3694 3975 312 1636 1332 323 320 1050 4100 3538 313 1644 1051 557 321 448 6110 1571 314 1374 905 206 322 495 4160 2725 315 1168 356 496 323 2314 4540 3218 316 377 579 874 324 2663 6784 4742 317 148 280 947 325 2587 7102 4677 318 273 645 700 326 2358 6212 5469 319 1292 553 935 327 2416 2411 2730 320 1323 540 411 328 1732 4842 1954 321 440 179 674 329 2038 6080 1043 322 146 285 584 330 1504 3553 2598 323 394 171 853 331 1246 1528 3928 324 980 531 200 332 1703 337 5123 325 871 152 262 333 2649 3832 4160 326 476 678 253 334 1474 3194 2993 327 356 899 329 335 1533 3947 2859 328 699 941 61 336 2622 2468 5034 329 645 196 56 337 2722 4991 3978 330 370 178 46 338 2398 2779 1004 331 104 171 40 339 3035 2759 1862 332 1288 378 41 340 3225 6163 3633 333 329 90 208 341 1885 5469 4340 334 748 261 637 342 2239 3959 3291 343 2331 5187 1102 335 451 284 383 344 3464 6215 1351 336 608 252 706 345 2959 3640 1122 337 1298 913 679 346 2047 2267 636 338 1379 276 482 347 804 1517 1472 339 831 696 446 348 1342 930 4797 340 324 516 131 349 1153 457 1834 341 766 302 497 350 587 1188 519 342 475 672 716 351 165 5030 1100 343 591 495 205 352 1387 3044 2108 344 576 94 142 353 1004 1637 1687 345 892 113 151 354 1758 5099 2374 346 442 410 204 355 2457 1207 2827 347 416 1327 531 356 2246 4417 4084 348 281 1131 700 357 1776 6652 3374 349 555 649 581 358 1090 6568 3639 350 362 555 363 359 3016 4864 1001 351 907 386 762 360 3639 2984 3107 352 1197 115 199 361 2441 5528 3722 353 713 313 128 362 2953 4926 1837 354 430 568 482 363 4571 5509 3034 355 595 243 636 364 3150 4913 4771 356 1081 641 682 365 954 3854 2732 357 609 552 569 358 339 842 707 359 753 827 392 360 638 365 560 361 951 108 640 362 839 531 436 363 482 125 224 364 398 167 787 365 139 783 643 NATIONAL TECHNOLOGY PROSPECTS

Transport Buildings Industry Agriculture Sector Sector ock t s : Shuer o

32 Phot 4.1 Transport Sector (or 53 thousand tons) in 2015, while in 2014 this figure was 0.6%. There were 3,360 electric cars registered in Ukraine as of April Table 4.2 Amount of bioethanol production in Ukraine, thou- 2017 according to the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine. sand tons Market growth rate exceeded 500% in 2016. The Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine and the Ministry of Energy and Coal 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Industry of Ukraine have the goal to achieve a 15% share of 55 52 66 51 53 electric vehicles among all cars sold in 202059. According to Oxygen Group there will be 7,000-10,000 passenger electric Source: Energy Balance of Ukraine (product) http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua cars in Ukraine by the end of 2017. Charging devices for freight According to the Ukrainian Association of Alternative transport are not available yet, but they are expected to be Transport Fuels Producers “Ukrbiopalyvo”, no more than six available in 2018. There is a number of projects in the country producers currently produce ethanol. The profitability of the on the development of infrastructure (charging stations) in production depends on the price of oil: production is expedient large cities and on the Kyiv-Odesa highway. if oil prices are above USD 55/barrel. Bioethanol is made of Ukraine is the 5th in the world by the growth rate of molasses, the production volume of which decreases each electric cars, but most of these electric cars are used. The year due to the reduction of sugar production. SE “Ukrspyrt” price of a used electric car at the national market is about could produce 160 thousand tons using available capacities. EUR 10,000-12,000, the price of a new one begins from Among existing producers, Biokhim Group is located on the EUR 28,00060. According to Oxygen Group, the price of an temporarily uncontrolled territory (Donetsk). KoronArgo electric vehicle with a hydrogen fuel cell is EUR 50,000-60,000, (Zolotonosha, Cherkasy region) is constructing a plant with but they are not present in Ukraine yet. Therefore, electric cars a production capacity of 100 thousand tons of ethanol per are more promising not only for private ownership, but also for year64. A plant with a capacity of 100 thousand tons of ethanol the use in taxi services, mail and delivery services, small cargo per year will be built in Zhytomyr region65 in 2018. Zaplazskyi transportation, small businesses, etc. Factory with a production capacity of 50 thousand tons per There are currently several draft laws registered in year will be converted for the production of bioethanol66. Ukraine that offer tax and other preferences for potential owners Thus, potential production of bioethanol could amount to of electric cars. These incentives will improve affordability of 510 thousand tons. this type of transport. In particular, the following tax benefits Bioethanol price was UAH 12 thousand per ton in 2013, are envisioned: abolishment of VAT on the import and supply while high-octane petrol was UAH 13 thousand per ton. The of components and charging stations for electric cars; a zero profitability of production remains questionable depending on VAT for electric cars and charging stations manufactured in the technology and the amount of energy used (4 times more Ukraine; a zero VAT for transportation by e-transport and for electricity is used per unit of bioethanol production in Ukraine renting e-transport; a tax discount of up to 18% of the cost than in the EU)67. Distilling plants in Ukraine spend 9-12 tons of of an electric car that can be returned; a zero payment to the steam per ton of bioethanol produced, while plants in the USA Pension Fund at the first registration of an electric car61. and Canada spend 2-3 tons68. Electric cars can be supplied with electricity from RES. Construction of mixing capacities for one petroleum In addition, increase of electric mobility could also reduce products retailer costs USD 3-4 million, which is equivalent the energy demand as a whole as electric cars are more to the construction of two new gas stations69. In Ukraine, energy efficient than cars with internal combustion engines construction of new bioethanol production plant requires (ICEs). The CP of electric motors can be 90-98%, while the CP of investments at EUR 1.1/kg, or EUR 110 million/64,000 toe, ICEs is 30-45%62. In addition, a number of studies have shown or EUR 1,718/toe. Investments required for conversion that the energy efficiency of electric cars increases if the latter of a sugar plant for bioethanol production amount to are couples with other technological solutions, for example, EUR 0.44/liter, or EUR 86/toe70. For comparison, in the energy storage devices63. Main characteristics of electric cars EU investments in lignocellulosic bioethanol plants were used in the TIMES-Ukraine model are presented in Table 4.1. EUR 6-12/kg bioethanol as of 201371. Table 4.1 Main characteristics of electric vehicles used in the Cars using exclusively motor biofuel (biodiesel, TIMES-Ukraine model bioethanol) are not common in Ukraine. Vehicles on methane, propane-butane and engines designed for a small share of Cost, Efficiency, Annual motor biofuel in petroleum cost about the same – from USD 5 Life EUR thousand Km/GJ mileage, to 24 thousand (depending on class, equipment, etc.). Main Mode of transport time, thousand years characteristics of biofuel vehicles used in the TIMES-Ukraine 2015 2050 2015 2050 km model are presented in Table 4.3. Intercity buses 400 180 20 185 220 27.5 4.2 Buildings Sector City buses 400 190 20 180 215 27.5 Despite proclaiming energy efficiency as one of the main Cars 27 20 20 855 885 17.2 priorities of state policy and the gradual expantion of Trucks 670 125 20 355 425 22.0 government initiatives to stimulate consumers to use energy in an efficient manner in their everyday life, the technical Motorcycles 13 13 20 777 854 4.8 condition of most existing residential and non-residential Source: calculations of the authors. buildings and related energy systems does not ensure required Bioethanol in Ukraine is produced in small amounts level of energy characteristics of buildings. Specific costs of (Table 4.2). According to the Energy Balance of Ukraine, the energy use considerably exceed similar indicators in most biofuels accounted for 0.5% of energy consumption by cars European countries (Figure 4.1).

59 Concept of the reform to stimulate the development of the electric transport market in Ukraine. #ELECTROTODAY. http://www.mtu.gov.ua/files/EV%20Reform%2013.04%20FINAL.pdf 60 http://nissan-elektro.com.ua 61 Concept of the reform to stimulate the development of the electric transport market in Ukraine. #ELECTROTODAY. http://www.mtu.gov.ua/files/EV%20Reform%2013.04%20FINAL.pdf 62 Wilson, Lindsay Shades of Green: Electric Cars’ Carbon Emissions Around the Globe. Shrink That Footprint 2013 http://shrinkthatfootprint.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Shades-of-Green-Full-Report.pdf 63 Crist, Philippe. Electric Vehicles Revisited – Costs, Subsidies and Prospects. Discussion Paper 2012. International Transport Forum. OECD, Paris http://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/docs/dp201203.pdf 64 Plant for production of bioethanol to be constructed in Poltava region 27/02/2007 http://www.proagro.com.ua/news/ukr/45866.html?t=3 65 http://news.finance.ua/ru/news/-/395944/avstrijtsy-postroyat-v-ukraine-zavod-po-proizvodstvu-bioetanola 66 http://oleg-leusenko.livejournal.com/tag/биотопливо 67 Finnish biofuel: experience for Ukrainians:13/05/2013 http://oil-gas-energy.com.ua/finske-biopalivo-dosvid-dlya-ukrainciv.html 68 Trypolska, H.S. Agro-bioenergy market of Ukraine / Monograph. NAS of Ukraine; Institute for Economics and Forecasting. – Kyiv, 2011. – 264 pages. ISBN 978-966-02-6077-1 69 Slynko, D. Biofuel. What is the risk of transfer of cars to vegetable fuel 08/07/2012 http://news.finance.ua/ua/news/~/282810 70 Calculated based on the data: Kuiun, S. Spirit finds the way to petrol. January 17, 2014 http://gazeta.zn.ua/energy_market/spirt-ischet-put-k-benzinu-_.html 71 Lignocellulosic Ethanol. Process and Demonstration. A Handbook Part I. 2013 by WIP Renewable Energies, Munich, Germany. David Chiaramonti, Arianna Giovannini, Rainer Janssen, Rita Mergner 33 Table 4.3 Main characteristics of biofuel vehicles used in the Країни ЄС 28 Final EnergyEU-28 Intencity - Residential Ukraine kg oe/m2 45 TIMES-Ukraine model 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Austria40 19 21 19 20 18 20 21 19 19 20 19 20 19 19 19 20 18 17 18 17 19 17 18 18 15 Cost, Annual Belgium 21 23 23 23 22 23 26 24 24 23 23 23 22 23 23 23 20 19 20 19 20 17 18 19 16 Life Efficiency, Bulgaria35 14 15 16 17 14 14 16 12 13 12 12 11 12 12 11 11 12 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 Mode of Share of EUR mileage, time, Km/GJ Croatia 13 12 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 14 14 14 15 14 14 13 16 transport biofuel, % thousand thousand Cyprus30 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 14 14 14 14 15 14 14 14 12 12 years km Czech Republic 26 24 22 22 22 23 25 24 22 22 21 23 21 22 22 21 21 20 20 20 21 19 19 20 18 2015 2050 2015 2050 Denmark25 16 18 17 18 17 18 19 17 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 15 15 15 13 Estonia 29 26 22 22 25 27 33 33 28 26 25 25 24 24 24 23 23 25 24 24 26 23 24 23 21 Intercity buses Finland20 30 31 30 29 30 29 28 27 28 27 23 25 26 26 25 25 25 25 24 25 28 24 26 24 23 France 16 18 17 17 16 15 17 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 18 17 17 15 17 16 17 14 16 16 14 Diesel + 15 up to 20 210 190 20 93 112 27.5 Germany 20 21 20 21 20 21 22 22 21 20 20 21 20 19 19 18 18 16 17 16 17 15 16 16 14 biodiesel Greece10 10 10 10 10 10 10 12 13 13 13 14 14 15 16 16 16 16 15 15 15 13 15 14 10 10 Hungary 24 25 22 22 21 21 21 20 19 19 18 20 20 21 19 21 20 17 17 17 18 17 15 14 13 Gasoline + Ireland5 18 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 22 20 22 21 22 19 18 19 17 up to 20 200 180 20 92 111 27.5 ethanol Italy 14 15 14 14 12 13 13 13 14 14 13 14 13 14 14 15 14 13 12 13 14 14 15 15 13 Latvia0 31 34 32 33 31 30 31 28 27 26 24 26 25 26 26 26 26 25 25 26 23 22 23 21 20 Biodiesel up to 100 225 205 20 93 112 27.5 Lithuania 26 29 23 24 24 23 21 20 20 19 18 19 19 19 19 19 20 19 19 20 20 19 19 18 17 Luxembourg1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 18 1997 211998 1999 20 2000 192001 2002 19 2003 192004 212005 2006 20 2007 212008 2009 19 2010 152011 2012 16 2013 162014 16 17 17 16 16 16 16 15 14 14 13 14 Ethanol up to 100 240 215 20 92 111 27.5 Malta 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 NetherlandsFigure 4.1 Specific16 18 energy17 17 17 consumption17 19 17 16 16 16by16 household15 16 16 15 15 14 14 15 16 14 14 15 13 Poland 222 25 25 30 28 27 27 26 23 23 20 21 21 21 21 22 22 21 21 21 24 21 22 21 20 City buses Portugalconsumers, kg oe/m 8 per8 usable8 8 floor8 8 area9 9per 8 year9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 Diesel + RomaniaNote: light blue color shows specific energy39 consumption26 23 24 by household23 23 consumers29 34for each33 EU 30country,29 and 25the dark24 blue 26 27 26 26 25 26 26 26 25 25 24 23 up to 20 210 190 20 106 127 27.5 Slovakshows Republic the average value for the EU. 17 15 14 13 13 15 17 17 18 19 19 22 21 20 19 18 16 14 14 14 15 14 14 14 13 biodiesel SloveniaUnits: kg oe/m2. Source: calculated by the17 authors20 based18 on19 the data19 of the20 International18 18 Energy17 Agency.18 19 19 19 20 20 19 18 17 18 19 19 19 18 17 16

Gasoline + Одиниця виміру: кг н.е. / м2 up to 20 200 180 20 108 130 27.5 ethanol Spain 7 7 6 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 Sweden280 18 19 21 21 21 20 21 21 20 19 19 19 18 18 18 18 17 16 16 17 18 16 17 16 15 Biodiesel up to 100 250 205 20 106 127 27.5 United Kingdom2005 273270 16 17 17 17 16 16 18 16 17 17 17 17 16 17 17 16 16 15 15 15 16 13 14 14 12 EU-28 2006270 273 17 18 17 18 17 17 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 15 16 16 17 15 15 15 14 Ethanol up to 100 240 215 20 108 180 27.5 Ukraine270 2007 248 36 33 34 33 32 31 32 28 25 26 24 23 23 24 23 23 24 22 21 21 23 23 22 22 21 2008 248 265 Cars 263 2009 245 260 Diesel + 260 2010 260 up to 20 20 18 20 308 370 14.3 2011 263 biodiesel 2012 265 248 248 245 Diesel + 250 up to 70 20 19 20 293 352 14.3 biodiesel Biodiesel up to 100 21 20 20 280 335 14.3 240 Gasoline + up to 20 21 18 20 318 382 11.5 ethanol 230 Gasoline + 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 up to 70 21 19 20 302 362 11.5 ethanol Figure 4.2 Specific energy consumption by household 2 Ethanol up to 100 22 21 20 285 340 11.5 consumers for heating in Ukraine, kWh/m per usable floor area per year Одиниця виміру: кВт·год / м2 на рік Trucks Units: kWh/m2 per year. Source: calculated by the authors based on the data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Diesel + up to 20 126 122 20 118 142 25.1 biodiesel ventilation, air conditioning, hot water supply systems, etc., to install metering equipment, to use renewable and / or Gasoline + up to 20 130 125 20 122 146 25.1 ethanol alternative sources of energy and / or fuels, to organize the regulation of energy consumption to ensure effectiveness of Biodiesel up to 100 140 134 20 118 142 21.7 implemented energy efficiency measures. At the same time, Ethanol up to 100 147 141 20 122 146 21.7 it is important to carry out a large-scale implementation of automated heating substations, which allow for a flexible Source: calculations of the authors. distribution of thermal energy to respond to changes in Energy costs for heating amount to 250-400 kWh weather conditions. Modernization of energy supply systems per m2 per year in Ukraine (Figure 4.2), while it is 180 in of utilities sector is also connected with the development Germany, 150 in Scandinavia, and 60-80 kWh per m2 per year and implementation of hybrid systems for electric heating of in buildings constructed using heat-saving technologies72. multi-apartment buildings. Such objects can act as regulator The energy consumption for heating of buildings in Ukraine consumers of the United Energy System of Ukraine. can be reduced substantially, primarily by insulating enclosing The energy saving potential of thermal insulation structures (windows, walls, roofs) of buildings. Thermal insulation of buildings in Ukraine is quite large, but investment costs can significantly reduce the weight and thickness of the enclosing for its use are estimated at over UAH 500 billion73. At the structures in addition to reducing the heat loss, and, accordingly, same time, the lack of objective information on the structure the cost of materials and their transportation. Various types of of the housing stock and the energy efficiency of buildings insulation materials of both foreign and domestic manufacturers makes impossible direct calculation of necessary investments, are widely represented on the Ukrainian market today. Main payback period of the projects and the corresponding energy requirements for insulation materials are determined by the state savings. Therefore, expert estimates are used for modeling the standard DSTU B GOST 16381:2011. The choice of particular long-term scenarios of the energy sector development. insulation material is determined by results of the technical Data of the Association of the Energy Auditors of and economic analysis, taking into account the availability of Ukraine74 (Tables 4.4-4.6) and SEVEn Energy75 company were raw materials, their cost, physical and mechanical parameters used to estimate the average cost of buildings repair and the (density, thermal conductivity, strength, water absorption, amount of energy savings by the type of measures. According water resistance), durability, compliance with sanitary norms to the estimates of national experts, the average effect of low- (toxicity) and fire safety (combustibility). cost short-term measures can make up to 14% energy savings. However, thermal insulation is only one of the These measures include modernization of building enclosing instruments for thermal modernization of a building. It is also structures and heating systems: isolation of heating and hot necessary to upgrade the engineering equipment for heating, water supply pipelines laid out in unheated sections of a

72 Ukraine on the way to independence. Achievements and perspectives // State Agency on Energy Efficiency and Energy Saving of Ukraine. – Kyiv, 2016. – 45 pages. 73 Ladyhin, S. Legal aspects of Draft Law of Ukraine No. 4947 // Utilities Sector. – 2016 – No. 6. – Pages 11-12. 74 http://aea.org.ua/ 75 http://www.svn.cz 34 Table 4.4 Fast-payback measures in multi-apartment buildings

Heated area Investments for 1 building Investments per m2 Basic consumption Savings / building No. Floor m2 UAH UAH kWh/m² year kWh/m² year % kWh/m² year kWh/m² year 1 2-4 1,359 200,000 147 200 36 18% 48,924 58,894 2 5-8 3,740 320,000 86 163 30 18% 112,200 135,064 3 9-10 8,323 527,000 63 156 20 13% 166,460 200,382 4 >10 10,141 600,000 59 140 15 11% 152,115 183,113 Weighted 6,094 424,800 70 156 22 14% 134,733 162,188 average values

Source: Association of the Energy Auditors of Ukraine. Table 4.5 Comprehensive rehabilitation of buildings (without replacement of in-apartment systems)

Heated area Investments for 1 building Investments per m2 Basic consumption Savings / building No. Floor m2 UAH UAH kWh/m² year kWh/m² year % kWh/m² year kWh/m² year 1 2-4 1,359 2,050,000 1,508 200 125 63% 169,875 204,493 2 5-8 3,740 4,200,000 1,123 163 100 61% 374,000 450,215 3 9-10 8,323 7,000,000 841 156 60 38% 499,380 601,145 4 >10 10,141 8,500,000 838 140 54 38% 545,036 656,105 Weighted 5,655 5,320,000 941 158 73 46% 412,291 496,309 average values

Source: Association of the Energy Auditors of Ukraine. Table 4.6 Comprehensive rehabilitation of private houses

Heated area Investments for 1 building Investments per m2 Basic consumption Savings / building No. Floor m2 UAH UAH kWh/m² year kWh/m² year % kWh/m² year kWh/m² year 1 1-2 80 120,000 1,500 240 125 52% 10,000 8,872

Source: Association of the Energy Auditors of Ukraine. building, glazing and sealing of windows and doors, installation relatively low cost technical solutions for energy saving in of thermostats and prevention of buildings overheating in buildings. the autumn and spring periods, washing of in-house systems, Category of measures focused at reducing heat losses sealing of inter-panel joints of residential buildings, etc. also include a large list of technical solutions, including thermal Specific costs per square meter for comprehensive insulation of walls and ceilings, windows replacement, etc. rehabilitation of buildings (thermal modernization of exterior using the best available materials and technologies. It is the walls, floor slabs and buildings’ roofs, replacement of windows most expensive option for energy saving per unit of energy and doors, modernization of the existing utility systems, saved. However, these measures can still be attractive to heating and hot water supply systems) are higher. At the same consumers due to the long service life and the low maintanence time the specific costs per unit of saved energy are lower due cost for new materials or equipment. It is estimated in the to a greater energy saving effect (Table 4.7). study mentioned above that a complete renovation of building Similar assessments of investments and energy savings would save up to 75% of energy consumption for heating for comprehensive rehabilitation were made by SEVEn Energy (Table 4.8). in the study of the possibilities for implementation Directive Taking into account discussed above estimates, 2012/27/EU by countries of the Energy Community76. assumptions were made on the investment costs and Research was done based on the analysis and synthesis of a the effectiveness of the measures for the modernization large array of actual cost data for the implementation of the of buildings for modeling of the long-term development four categories of energy saving measures. Specific costs per scenarios of the energy sector (Table 4.9). unit of saved energy presented in Table 4.7 are higher than An analysis of the prospective needs for heating and the AEA estimates, but lower than similar costs in the EU. This the use of energy resources for other household needs has can be explained by a high current energy consumption level in been carried out. It takes into account the assumptions of the utilities sector in the countries of the Energy Community, the demographic scenario, in particular living conditions in particular in Ukraine (about 250 kWh/m2 compared to of households, as well as the forecasted growth rates and 100-150 kWh/m2) and availability of unrealized potential for structure of the service sector. Despite the forecast for Table 4.7 Specific costs for implementation of energy saving measures in buildings, EUR million/PJ

Thermal modernisation and other Automatic regulation of Installation of heat recovery Complete modernization Category measures to reduce heat loss heating system systems of building Private house 170 80 100 140 Multi-apartment building 210 70 140 180 Office buildings, in particular: 250 70 160 210 - educational institutions 210 50 150 180 - health care institutions 250 100 200 220

Source: SEVEn Energy.

76 Impact Assessment of the Energy Efficiency Directive (2012/27/EU) for the Energy Community, https://www.energy-community.org/portal/page/portal/ENC_HOME/DOCS/3304025/0633975ADB617B9CE053C92FA8C06338.PDF 35 Table 4.8 Energy savings for heating depending on type of measures and category of buildings, %

Thermal modernisation and other Category Automatic regulation of heating system Installation of heat recovery systems measures to reduce heat loss Private house 50 7 Multi-apartment building 50 8 Office buildings, in particular: 40 9 17 - educational institutions 45 9 - health care institutions 50 8

Source: SEVEn Energy. Table 4.9 Assumptions on investment needs and efficiency of measures for thermal modernization of buildings

Private residential buildings Multi-apartment buildings Non-residential buildings investments savings investments savings investments savings UAH/kWh/m2 EUR mln/PJ % UAH/kWh/m2 EUR mln/PJ % UAH/kWh/m2 EUR mln/PJ � Simple rehabilitation 3.0 28.9 14 3.2 31.0 14 4.0 38.8 10 Complete rehabilitation 12.0 117.0 52 12.9 125.6 46 16.9 165.0 55 Additional modernization 14.4 140.0 74 18.5 180.0 75 22.6 220.0 75

Source: prepared by the authors based on the data of the Association of the Energy Auditors of Ukraine and SEVEn Energy. further gradual reduction of the population, the growth depends on a number of factors, in particular, on the capacity rate of the living space in the household sector will of the electric furnace, duration of melting, etc. It can outweigh this negative trend: the total area of residential range from 325 to 735 kWh/t78. Data in columns 4 and 5 of buildings will increase by 14.5% till 2050 as compared to Table 4.10 was used in this study for modeling. 2015. The average area for households living in multi- Over 70% of all final energy79 consumed in the chemical apartment buildings will be about 60 m2, and 90-100 m2 in industry is used for production of petroleum and inorganic private houses. chemicals, in particular, for the production of ammonia80. Thus, the average energy cost of ammonia production 4.3 Industry amounts to 35-38 GJ/t. The introduction of new promising technologies into the above production will contribute to An increased use of renewable energy and alternative their reduction by at least 20%. fuel by industrial enterprises in Ukraine is important to The average consumption of traditional energy in reduce the use of traditional fuel and energy resources and the pulp and paper industry ranges from 29 to 32 GJ/t of associated negative environmental impacts. products. At the same time, international experience shows An important part of this process is the introduction that there is a potential for replacement of traditional energy of new promising technologies suitable for the transition resources with renewable ones in pulp and paper production, of the national industry to the use of alternative types in particular, with biomass (up to 60% of total energy of energy. consumption). Such replacement can reduce the energy The development of the electric furnace steel intensity of the production to 17.1 GJ/t of paper81. production method (Electric Furnace)77 is promising for Average energy consumption per ton of portland cement the implementation of the Revolutionary Scenario in the produced in industrialized countries is about 3.0-4.0 GJ82. metallurgical industry of Ukraine. At the same time, electricity According to national experts83, the minimum energy consumption for the production of a ton of electrical steel consumption theoretically could be 1.76 GJ per ton of cement Table 4.10 Energy consumption subject to introduction of new technologies in industry

Current average energy Data of Resource Efficient and Perspective energy consumption / Cost of technology, Sector consumption per ton of product* Cleaner Production Centre** t products***,**** $/t products***** 1 2 3 4 5 from 750 to 325 kWh/t of steel Metallurgy 13-14 GJ/t of cast iron from 0.7 to 6.5 GJ/t $540-600/t of steel (1.2-2.7 GJ) Production of ammonia 35-38 GJ/t 7,500 kWh/t (27 GJ/t) 27 GJ/t $30-50/t Pulp and paper 29-32 GJ/t – from 18.7 to 17.1 GJ/t $600-800/t Wet technology: 5.3-7.1 GJ/t; Cement 1,800 kWh/t (6.5 GJ/t) from 3.0 to 2.5 GJ/t of cement $90-130/t Dry technology: 3-4 GJ/t Production of glass 3,000 kWh/t (10.8 GJ/t) 10.8 GJ/t $250-300/t

Source: compiled based on the data of: * Perspectives of energy technologies. In support of the G-8 Action Plan. Scenarios and Strategies up to 2050. OECD/IEA, WWF of Russia (translation into Russian, Part 1 edited by A. Kokorin, Part 2 edited by T. Muratova. – Moscow: 2007 – 586 pages. – Pages. 485; 499; 505; 519. Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 (NETP 2016) is a Nordic edition of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) global Energy Technology Perspectives 2016. – 211 pages. – Page 87. Available at: http://www.nordicenergy.org/project/nordic-energy-technology-perspectives. ** Data provided by the Resource Efficient and Cleaner Production Centre, http://www.recpc.kpi.ua/en/. *** Kudrin, B. Electricity in electrometallurgy / B.I. Kudrin // Electricity. – 2003. – Pages. 35-45; Prospects for energy technologies In support of the G-8 Action Plan. Scenarios and Strategies up to 2050. OECD/IEA, WWF of Russia (translation into Russian, Part 1 edited by A. Kokorin, Part 2 edited by T. Muratova. – Moscow: 2007 – 586 pages. – Page 514; Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 (NETP 2016) is a Nordic edition of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) global Energy Technology Perspectives 2016. – 211 pages. – Page 87. Available http://www.at: nordicenergy.org/project/nordic-energy-technology-perspectives; Mykoliuk O.; Kovalchuk I. Practice of Implementation of Energy Efficient Technologies at Cement Industry Enterprises in Ukraine / O. Mykoliuk, I. Kovalchuk // Bulletin of the Khmelnytskyi National University – 2014. – No. 1. – Pages 227-230 **** Calculations of the authors.

77 According to the WSA, over 25% of world steel output was produced in electric furnaces in 2015. 78 Kudrin, B. Electricity in electrometallurgy / B.I. Kudrin // Electricity. – 2003. – Pages 35-45. 79 According to the IEA, only a few manufacturing processes from among over 50 promising technologies in the chemical industry are significant in terms of energy consumption. 80 Prospects for energy technologies. In support of the G-8 Action Plan. Scenarios and Strategies up to 2050. OECD/IEA, WWF of Russia (translation into Russian, Part 1 edited by A. Kokorin, Part 2 edited by T. Muratova. – Moscow: 2007 – 586 pages. – Page 505. 81 Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 (NETP 2016) is a Nordic edition of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) global Energy Technology Perspectives 2016. – 211 p. – P. 87. Available at: http://www.nordicenergy.org/project/nordic-energy- technology-perspectives 82 Best Available Techniques (BAT) Reference Document for the Production of Cement, Lime and Magnesium Oxide / [Electronic resource]. – Available at: eippcb.jrc.ec.europa.eu/reference/BREF/CLM_30042013_DEF.pdf 83 Mykoliuk, O.; Kovalchuk, I. Practice of Implementation of Energy Efficient Technologies at Cement Industry Enterprises in Ukraine / O. Mykoliuk, I. Kovalchuk // Bulletin of the Khmelnitskyi National University – 2014. – No. 1. – Pages 227-230 36 clinker. At the same time, the energy efficiency of existing of USD 1,000, the price in Ukraine), milk delivery trucks (used furnaces with heaters and pre-burning is 3.06 GJ of energy ones on methane at a price of USD 4,000-5,000, the price in per ton of clinker, while wet technology consumes from 5.3 to Ukraine), pump trucks (used ones on methane at a price of 7.1 GJ per ton of clinker. 9,000 USD, the price in Ukraine, with a load capacity about Thus, there are new promising technologies for various 2,000 kg). Electric tractors (used) cost on average USD 13,000- industrial processes in the world today, which make possible 15,000 in Ukraine85. transition from consumption of traditional fuel and energy Biodiesel in Ukraine is produced in small amounts resources to the use of energy from renewable sources (in (up to 20 thousand tons per year), largely to meet the particular, electricity and thermal energy produced from technical needs of agricultural firms. As of 2016, investments RES). Such transition will lead to reduction of the energy required for construction of a biodiesel installation in consumption and negative impacts on environment. Ukraine are as follows: EUR 95 thousand/2 million liters = EUR 95 thousand/1,513 toe = EUR 62/toe86. Operating 4.4 Agriculture expenses are EUR 360/1 toe87. Agriculture is represented in a simplified form in the TIMES- Biodiesel Bessarabia company opened a plant for the Ukraine model. Five sub-sectors are identified in this sector: production of biodiesel with a capacity of7 thousand tons crop growing, livestock breeding, local transport, non- per year in Odesa region in 2007. Lieber company opened a energy consumption and other needs. In addition, energy plant with capacity of 10 thousand tons of biodiesel per year in consumption for the autonomous production of electricity and Kherson region in 2007. heat is included not in this but in the energy sector. The model In 2014, the largest producers of biodiesel were Oriana- assumes that each demand in agriculture can be met with the Galev (Kalush; raw materials – rape), Liber (Kherson; raw technologies using RES. Information provided below is not materials – rape), Styrol (Horlivka; raw materials – sunflower used in the TIMES-Ukraine model directly, but it is intended to seeds). 300 installations for the production of biodiesel with a total capacity of about 500 thousand tons per year were built give an idea of the prospects for the transition of this sector to 88 renewable energy sources. at farms. They produced biodiesel for their own needs . There Agriculture and forestry sector use no more than 5% is no industrial biodiesel production in Ukraine due to lack of of the final energy demand and are not significant emitters of raw materials and demand for it. The only excemption is a 84 plant with a capacity of 28 thousand liters of biodiesel per day CO2 in Ukraine. At the same time, the sector faces challenges of reducing greenhouse gas emissions (first of all, methane), in Sambir district of Lviv region, which was launched in 2014. ensuring food security in conditions of climate change and Research projects on the production of biodiesel from population growth and urbanization, cultivating new types microalgae was conducted in Ukraine for about 10 years. of energy crops, and mastering new technologies that will be Domestic company Biodiesel-Dnipro was the first in Ukraine to begin operating of a plant for cultivation of microalgae and used by agricultural machines and equipment. 89 Agricultural machines and equipment on biogas are producing oil . Reactors can be installed both vertically and currently at the testing stage before industrial production will horizontally, which allows saving space considerably. In addition, commence (for example, the New Holland Methane Power closed automatic control systems and self-cleaning systems Tractor model). Conversion of existing tractors and other can be used. Algae grow faster by 30% when they consume CO 90. A technology for obtaining biogas from poisonous algae equipment with internal combustion engines to use of electric 2 drives is more common. Electric tractors are only entering that pollute rivers was developed in the Kremenchuk National the market with a price of USD 8,000-10,000 (produced in University named after M. Ostrohradskyi. 200 liters of biogas China) and a load capacity of 300 kg. There are also available were made from 50 liters of algae. In the future, the technology will become waste free91. These technologies are not yet used trucks (used ones on methane at a price of USD 5,000, the 92 price in Ukraine), tractors (used ones on methane at a price on an industrial scale in Ukraine .

84 Ukraine’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2015. Annual National Inventory Report for Submission under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. – Available at: http://unfccc.int/files/national_reports/ annex_i_ghg_inventories/national_inventories_submissions/application/zip/ukr-2017-nir-24may17.zip 85 https://ecoelectro.com.ua/electric-vehicles/electric-cars/ 86 http://www.advantageaustria.org/mx/events/BEFA_Plantas_Biodiesel.pdf 87 http://www.eubia.org/cms/wiki-biomass/biofuels-for-transport/biodiesel/ 88 Ukraine could export biofuel instead of rape. 27.11.2009: http://www.biofuels.ru/bioethanol/news/ukraine_could_export_biofuel_instead_of_rape 89 Installations for growing algae. [Electronic resource]. – Available at: http://biodiesel.dp.ua/. 90 Hryniuk, I. Biofuel from algae // Agrosector – 2009 – No. 6(36) 91 Scientists of the Kremenchuk University created a technology for extraction of biogas from poisonous algae 27/05/2010 [Electronic resource]. – Available at: http://fuelalternative.com.ua/ 92 Trypolska, H.S. Agro-bioenergy market of Ukraine / Monograph. NAS of Ukraine; Institute for Economics and Forecasting. – Kyiv, 2011. – 264 pages. ISBN 978-966-02-6077-1 37 DEVELOPMENT OF ENERGY SECTOR IN UKRAINE UNDER DIFFERENT SCENARIOS UP TO 2050

Final Energy Electricity Heat Total Primary Consumpon Generaon Generaon Energy Supply

Relave Indicators Greenhouse Gas Total Costs 5 of Energy Sector Development Emissions and Investments ock t s : Shuer o

38 Phot Кінцеве споживання енергоресурсів

Ліберальний сценарій 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal 9212 5952 6278 7371 7973 8850 9588 10223 10662 Gas 21698 13741 14804 14224 12586 12679 11887 10061 9566 Oil products 11347 8776 10619 10921 11591 11688 10749 9599 7749 Heat 11853 7500 9174 8711 8229 7216 6036 5304 4337 Electricity 11131 9681 10080 9721 9013 9285 9598 9819 9666 Heat from RES 12 26 810 958 1106 1521 1727 1676 1835 Electricity from RES 709 552 1732 2563 3446 4510 5637 6788 7817 Biofuel and wastes 1029 1282 1051 1057 855 1011 1411 1879 3630 Solar energy 0 0 0 0 0 279 1492 3414 5396 Total 66991 47510 54548 55525 54800 57039 58125 58763 60658 Influence of EE measures 0 0 3249 8337 13669 16996 20386 23525 24449 67.0 60.7 Share of RES 3% 4% 7% 8% 10% 13% 18% 23% 31%

90 31% 35% Influence of EE measures

80 Electricity from RES 30% 70 23% Heat from RES -29% -23% 25% Solar energy 60 18% Biofuel and wastes 50 20% 13% Electricity 40 15% 10% Heat 30 7% 8% 10% Oil products 20 4% Gas Implementation of the Revolutionary5% Scenario will This Section presents the results of economic and 10 3% mathematical modeling under three scenarios allow increasing the share of RES in the structure of Coal FEC up 0 0% 93 to 91% in 2050. At the same time, final energy consumptionShare of RES (Conservative , Liberal and Revolutionary), which are 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 based on the conditions and assumptions (macroeconomic, may be reduced by 42% (compared to the base year of 2012) demographic, energy use, prices, etc.) specified in the due to the implementation of energy efficiency and energy previous sections of the report. Detailed results of modeling saving measures (Figure 5.4). Coal under three scenarios are provided in tables in Annex A.6. 1% 1% Gas 9% 14% 17% 5.1 Final Energy Consumption 17% 6% Oil products

Heat The results of modeling show that the final energy consumption 13% in Ukraine will increase from 67.0 mln toe in 2012 to 85.1 mln toe 67.0 60.7 16% Electricity Кінцеве споживання енергоресурсів 18% mln toe mln toe 2012 2015 in 2050 (increase2020 of 27%) under the2030 Conservative Scenario.2040 It 32%2050 3% Statistical dStatistical d Conservative Liberal Revolutionary Conservative Liberal Revolutionary Conservative Liberal Revolutionary Conservative Liberal Revolutionary Heat from RES Industry 24844 16408 will18212 be lower17992 by 1803427% in 205024539 compared20794 19544to the base29883 year23941 of 20206 32756 25766 18825 Households 23467 16555 20390 18563 18568 21482 14542 15170 22817 13513 14403 24067 13842 13723 16% 13% Electricity from RES 2012 under the Revolutionary Scenario. As Figure 5.1 shows, 17% Transport 11448 8749 10964 10856 10768 12839 12117 10266 14991 12660 9868 16709 11831 7390 7% Service sector 5037 3838 the5986 implementation5248 5236 of the6916 energy5020 efficiency5415 and7762 energy 5347saving 5433 8283 6093 5883 Agriculture 2195 1960 2245 1889 2140 2694 2326 2562 3058 2664 2950 3292 3125 3176 Biofuel and wastes Total 66991 47510 (EE)57797 potential54548 is 54746very important.68469 It54800 is the cheapest52957 78511 “resource”58125 52860 85107 60658 48998 Influence of EE measures 0 0 0 3249 3052 0 13669 15512 0 20386 25651 20120 24449 36109 2050 Solar energy and investments in energy efficiency are more economicallyКінцеве споживання енергоресурсів feasible than investments in electricity or heat generation. Figure 5.3 Structure of the final energy consumption under the Influence of EE measures Agriculture Service sector Transport Households Industry Liberal Scenario Революційний сценарій 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal 9212 5952 6270 6301 6032 5419 4006 2790 621 90 Gas 21698 13741 14417 12353 9167 7615 6748 4562 460 80 Oil products90 11347 8776 10240 8988 91%7361 100%5874 4132Influence of1706 EE measures3 Heat 11853 7500 9045 8358 7988 6436 4654 3466 1604 70 Electricity80 11131 9681 9950 8379 6310 90%6456 6034Electricity 5949from RES 1921 Heat from RES 1029 1282 1891 3318 4724 5696 6264 6220 7335 60 Electricity from RES 0 0 0 0 163 80%657 1490Heat from2790 RES 4316 Biofuel 70and wastes 12 26 1009 64%1815 2555 3904 5197 6117 7446 50 -42% Solar energy 709 552 1924 5252 8655 10964 14334 17882 25292 -28% 70% Solar energy 40 Total 60 0 0 3052 9096 15512 21015 25651 30804 36109 Influence of EE measures 66991 47510 5474652% 54765 52957 53020 52860 51483 48998 60% Biofuel and wastes 30 50 67.0 49.0 Share of RES 3% 4% 9% 19% 30% 50%40% 52% 64% 91% 20 40% 28% Electricity 42% 40 30% 10 40% Heat 0 30 90 100% 91% 30% Influence of EE measures 19% Oil products 20 80 90% Liberal Liberal Liberal Liberal 20% Electricity from RES 9% Has 64% 10 80%10% Кінцеве споживання енергоресурсівConservative Conservative Conservative Conservative 70 4% Heat from RES

Revolutionary Revolutionary Revolutionary Revolutionary 3% Statistical data Statistical data -42% Coal -28% 0 70%0% 2012 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 60 52% Solar energy 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Share of RES Ліберальний сценарій 60% 50 Biofuel and wastes Figure 5.1 Final energy2012 consumption2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal 9212 5952 6278 7371 7973 8850 9588 10223 10662 40% 50% Electricity GasUnits: mln toe. 21698 13741 14804 14224 12586 12679 11887 10061 9566 Figure40 5.4 Final energy consumption under the Revolutionary Oil products 11347 8776 10619 10921 11591 11688 10749 9599 7749 40% Scenario 30% Heat Heat According to 11853the Liberal7500 9174Scenario,8711 the8229 share7216 of6036 RES5304 in the4337 30 30% Electricity 11131 9681 10080 9721 9013 9285 9598 9819 9666 Units: mln toe. Heat from RES 12 26 810 958 1106 1521 1727 1676 1835 19% Oil products structure of FEC could exceed 30% by 2050. Implementation of 20 Electricity from RES 709 552 1732 2563 3446 4510 5637 6788 7817 20% Biofuelthe and energywastes efficiency1029 measures1282 1051 results1057 in 855reduction1011 1411 of FEC1879 by3630 9% 3%Energy 9% transition under the Revolutionary Gas Scenario Solar energy 0 0 0 0 0 279 1492 3414 5396 10 4% 10% Totalto 60.7 mln toe compared66991 47510 to the54548 base55525 year54800 of57039 2012.58125 Figure58763 5.260658 will require rapid electrification of households Coaland economy Influence of EE measures 0 0 3249 8337 13669 16996 20386 23525 24449 (Electrification0 2.0). This could lead to0% increase of the shows the influence 67.0of the energy efficiency measures and 60.7RES 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Share of RES Sharecompared of RES to the Conservative3% 4% Scenario.7% 8% 10% 13% 18% 23% 31% electricity share in FEC from 17% in 2012 to 56%, 52% out of which should be generated from RES (Figure 5.5). In addition, 90 31% 35% Influence of EE measures biofuel and wastes, centralized heating based on RES and solar 80 Electricity from RES 30% energy will play an important role in satisfaction of demand for 70 23% Heat from RES heating and hot water. -29% -23% 25% Solar energy 60 18% 1% 1% 1% Coal 20% Biofuel and wastes 1% 3% 50 4% 13% Electricity Gas 40 15% 14% 10% Heat Oil products 30 17% 8% 10% Oil products 15% 7% Heat 20 4% Gas 3% 5% 67.0 52% 49.0 Electricity 10 18% Coal mln toe 32% mln toe 9% 0 0% Heat from RES Share of RES 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 15% Electricity from RES 17% Figure 5.2 Final energy consumption under the Liberal Scenario Biofuel and wastes Units: mln toe. Coal 2012 2050 Solar energy 1%The1% main role in increasing the share of RES under Gas the Liberal Scenario will belong9% to electricity generated from Figure 5.5 Structure of the final energy consumption under the 14% 17% RES,17% biofuel and wastes, and6% solar energy used for Oil products hot water Revolutionary Scenario and heating, as well as heat generated from RES Heat directly by households and supplied 13%to consumers in the centralized way Industry will remain the largest end consumer of 67.0 60.7 16% Electricity 18% mln toe (Figure mln5.3 toe). 32% 3% energy resources. The shares of the service sector and At the same time, consumption of Heatnatural from RES gas and agriculture will be increased and the share of households 16% 13% Electricity from RES as well as the share of transport could be decreased certain17% petroleum products will decrease considerably. The 7% share of coal in FEC could increase due to the Biofuel growth and wastes of considerably due to the energy efficiency measures industrial production (first of all, metallurgy). (Figure 5.6, 5.7). 2012 2050 Solar energy

93 It should be reminded that the Conservative Scenario is considered as a hypothetical scenario when characteristics of most technologies remain unchanged up to 2050 as they were in 2012. Gradual replacement of technologies takes place only when the life time of certain existing capacities comes to its end. The cost and efficiency of technologies that replace the old ones reflects current trends: the cost decreases with time and the efficiency increases. At the same time, most of the existing technologies can be used during the modeling period (2012-2050). Conservative Scenario is used as reference for comparison of results obtained for Liberal and Revolutionary Scenarios. However, authors believe that Conservative Scenario is not realistic because Ukraine will not be able to resist to technological progress. 39 Кінцеве споживання енергоресурсів за секторами 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Кінцеве споживання енергоресурсів за секторами Statistical dStatisticalConservativ d Liberal RevolutionarConservativ Liberal RevolutionarConservativ Liberal RevolutionaryConservativ LiberalRevolutionaConservativ LiberalRevolutionaConservativ LiberalRevolutionaConservativ LiberalRevolutionary Industry 2012 201524844 16408 182122020 17992 18034 217972025 20172 19415 24539 203020794 19544 27684 203522578 20077 29883 204023941 20206 31532 251002045 19720 32756 25766205018825 Households Statistical dStatistical23467Conservativ d 16555 Liberal20390 Revolutionar18563 Conservativ18568 21069Liberal Revolutionar16790 16991Conservativ21482Liberal14542Revolutionary15170Conservativ22130 Liberal14091Revolutiona14807Conservativ22817 Liberal13513 Revolutiona14403 Conservativ23570 13523LiberalRevolutiona14039 Conservativ24067 13842Liberal13723Revolutionary Industry Transport 24844 1640811448 182128749 1799210964 1085618034 1076821797 1197620172 1148119415 1075624539128392079412117 1954410266 2768413893 2257812661 200779918 2988314991 2394112660 202069868 1594631532 1160825100 903219720 1670932756 1183125766739018825 Households Service sector 23467 165555037 203903838 185635986 185685248 523621069 654116790 496416991 525821482 6916145425020 151705415 221307429 140915181 148075436 228177762 135135347 144035433 805423570 574113523 562514039 828324067 609313842588313723 Transport Agriculture 11448 87492195 109641960 108562245 107681889 214011976 248011481 211710756 234612839 2694121172326 102662562 138932899 126612528 99182782 149913058 126602664 29509868 318615946 279111608 30689032 329216709 31251183131767390 Service sector Total 5037 383866991 598647510 577975248 545485236 547466541 638624964 555255258 547656916 68469502054800 541552957 742974036 518157039 543653020 776278511 534758125 528605433 822888054 587635741 514835625 851078283 606586093489985883 Agriculture Influence of EE measures 2195 19600 2245 0 1889 0 21403249 24803052 21170 83372346 90962694 23260 136692562 155122899 0252816996 278221015 3058 0 266420386 295025651 31860 235252791 308043068 32920 244493125 361093176 Total 66991 47510 57797 54548 54746 63862 55525 54765 68469 54800 52957 74036 57039 53020 78511 58125 52860 82288 58763 51483 85107 60658 48998 Influence of EE measures 0 0 0 3249 3052 020128337 9096 0 13669 205015512 0 16996 21015 20500 20386 25651 0 23525 205030804 0 24449 36109 Industry 2012 2050 2050 7%2050 3% 4% 5% Industry 8% 10% 10% 12% Households 3% 4% 5% 7% 8%17% 37% 10% 38% 38% 10% 42% Households 20% 12% Transport 67.0 85.1 20% 60.7 15% 49.0 17% 37% mln toe 38% mln toe 38% mln toe 42% mln toe 20% ServiceTransport sector 67.0 85.1 20% 60.7 15% 49.0 mln toe35% mln toe mln toe mln toe 23% 28% 28% AgricultureService sector 35% Conservative Scenario Liberal23% Scenario Revolutionary Scenario 28% 28% Agriculture

Conservative Scenario Liberal Scenario Revolutionary Scenario

Figure 5.6 Structure of the final energy consumption by sectors Influence of EE measures Agriculture Service sector Transport Households Industry of modeling show that the consumption of the fossil energy 90 resources could be reduced starting from 2025. Growing energy 80 demand could be replaced with electricity and heat generated Influence of EE measures Agriculture Service sector Transport Households Industry 70 from renewable sources. Total share of RES can reach 88% in the 90 60 industrial sector by 2050. 80 50 Electrification of the industry is a significant challenge 40 70 for the implementation of the Revolutionary Scenario because 30 60 20 it will require the replacement of almost all existing energy 50 10 intensive industrial equipment with a new one that will only use 40 0 electricity and heat. The use of energy resources as raw materials 30 (for example, coke in metallurgy, gas in chemistry) is not taken 20 Liberal Liberal Liberal Liberal into account as it is considered to be a non-energy consumption, 10 Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative

Revolutionary Revolutionary Revolutionary Revolutionary which is not considered for modeling of the long-term scenarios Statistical data Statistical data 0 2012 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 of the energy sector development. Рис. 5.9. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів промисловістю за Революційним сценарієм Рис. 5.9. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів промисловістю за Революційним сценарієм Liberal Liberal Liberal Liberal Figure 5.7 Final energy consumption by sectors according to 35 Революційний100% сценарій Influence of EE measures 35 88% Революційний100% сценарій Influence of EE measures 2012 2015 202088% 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

differentConservative scenarios Conservative Conservative Conservative 2012 2015 2020 202590% 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Revolutionary Revolutionary Revolutionary Revolutionary Coal 8310 5569 5444 5575 5439 Electricity4910 from RES3739 2603 547 Statistical data Statistical data Coal 30 8310 5569 5444 557590% 5439 4910 3739 2603 547 Units: mln toe. Gas 5272 2762 2146 2059 1830 Electricity1552 from RES1152 776 276 Gas30 5272 2762 2146 2059 1830 1552 1152 776 276 2012 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 Oil products 1246 814 1055 89180% 774 Heat from676 RES 909 223 0 Oil products 1246 814 1055 89180% 774 676 909 223 0 Heat 4538 2870 61%3084-43% 2815 2538 Heat from2090 RES 1516 1106 503 Heat 25 4538 2870 3084-43% 2815 2538 2090 1516 1106 503 Electricity25 5102-27% 4065 61%4921 448470% 3320 Solar energy3374 3116 3038 983 Electricity Biofuel and wastes 5102-2746% 406586 492188 448417070% 3320278 Solar energy3374478 3116680 8893038 1235983 Biofuel and wastes 46 86 88 170 278 478 680 889 1235 5.1.1 Industry Solar energy 0 0 0 60%0 0 Biofuel and0 wastes 0 0 0 Solar energy20 0 0 0 60%0 0 0 0 0 0 Heat20 from RES 5 48%10 344 611 812 Biofuel1268 and wastes1693 1953 2335 Heat from RES 5 10 344 611 812 1268 1693 1953 2335 Electricity from RES 325 48%232 952 281150% 4554 Electricity5728 7401 9132 12946 Industry is and will remain the largest consumer of energy ElectricityTotal from RES 2484432537% 16408232 18034952 19415281150% 195444554 Electricity200775728 202067401 197209132 1882512946 Total 15 2484437% 16408 18034 19415 19544 20077 20206 19720 18825 resources. Under the Liberal Scenario energy needs of Shar15 e of RES 1.5% 2.0% 7.7% 18.5%40% 28.9% Heat37.2% 48.4% 60.7% 87.7% Shar Influencee of RES of EE measures 29%1.5%0 2.0%0 7.7%178 18.5%238240% 28.9%4995 Heat37.2%7607 48.4%9676 1181260.7% 1393187.7% Influence of EE measures 0 0 178 2382 4995 27%7607 9676 11812 1393143% industry will be a little bit higher in 2040-2050 than in 2012 10 29% 30% Oil products 19% 30% 27% 43% 10 19% Oil products (Figure 5.8). Energy efficiency measures will play an important 20% Gas 5 20% Gas role in reducing industrial FEC. However, the use of fossil fuels 8% 10% 5 2% 2% Coal 8% 10% and energy produced from them will decrease by 14% in 2050 2% 2% Coal 0 0% Share of RES Рис. 5.8. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів промисловістю за Ліберальним сценарієм 0 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0% Рис.compared 5.8. Кінцеве споживання to the енергетичних baseline ресурсів yearпромисловістю of 2012. за Ліберальним сценарієм Share of RES 35 20% 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Ліберальний18% сценарій 3% 1% 35 2012 2015 202017%Ліберальний18%2025 20% сценарій2030 2035 Influence2040 of EE measures2045 2050 1% 3% Coal Coal 20128310 20155569 202016%544517% 20256670 2030737118%2035 Influence8307 2040 of EE9170 measures2045 9934205010558 1% 3% 1% Coal Coal Gas 30 83105272 5569276216%54452151 66702381-217371%18%2371 8307 2417 Electricity9170 2432 from9934 RES247410558 2467 3% Gas Gas Oil30 products 52721246 276213%814 21511058 2381-211132% 23711142 2417 1176 2432 11822474 13522467 1322 13% 16% Electricity from RES 5% Gas Oil Heatproducts 12464538 8142870 10583168 11323168 114216%3027 1176 2845 Heat1182 from2571 RES1352 24411322 2139 21% Oil products Heat 4538 2870-18% 3168 3168 3027 2845 2571 2441 2139 5% Electricity25 5102-18% 4065 4982 5065 461814% Heat4786 from RES4849 4696 4514 34% 7% Electricity Biofuel25 and wastes 5102 46 4065 86 4982 52 5065 73 461814% 94 4786 123 Solar4849 energy1534696 1844514 211 21% HeatOil products Biofuel Solar and energy wastes 4611%0 86 0 52 0 73 0 94 0 123 Solar 0energy153 0 184 0 211 0 34% 7% Solar energy 11%0 0 0 0 0 12% 0 0 0 0 Heat 20from RES 5 10 280 348 12% 407 600 Biofuel and736 wastes 771 905 ElectricityHeat Heat Electricity 20from RES from RES 5 325 10 232 280 856 3481335 4071766 600 Biofuel2325 and736 wastes2848 771 3246 905 3651 24.8 18.8 12% Electricity from RES 325 232 856 1335 1766 10%2325 2848 3246 3651 Total 9% 24844 16408 17992 20172 10%20794 22578 Electricity23941 25100 25766 18% mln toe mln toe BiofuelElectricity and wastes Total Share of RES 9% 248441.5% 164082.0%179926.6%201728.7%2079410.9%22578 13.5%Electricity2394115.6%2510016.7%2576618.5% 24.8 18.8 12% Share of15 RES 1.5% 2.0% 6.6% 8.7% 10.9% 13.5% 15.6% 16.7% 18.5% Influence15 of EE measures 7% 0 0 220 1625 37458% 5106 Heat 5942 6432 699018% mln toe 69% mln toe Biofuel and wastes Influence of EE measures 7% 0 0 220 1625 37458% 5106 Heat18% 5942 6432 6990 21% Solar energy 18% 21% 10 6% Oil products 5% 21% 69% 10 6% Oil products HeatSolar from energy RES 4% Gas 5% 21% 2%2% 4% Gas ElectricityHeat from from RES RES 5 2% 5 2% 2% Coal 2% Coal 2012 2050 Electricity from RES Share of RES Рис. 5.11. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів населенням за Революційним сценарієм 0 0 0% 0% Share of RES 2012 2050 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Рис. 5.11.25 Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів населенням за91% РеволюційнимРеволюційний100% сценарієм сценарій Influence of EE measures Figure 5.9 Final energy2012 consumption2015 2020 2025 by industry2030 2035 under2040 the 2045 2050 Вугілля 715 303 638 57890% 510 395 176 109 0 Coal 25 91% Революційний100% сценарій 1%1% Coal Газ 13760 9083 10351 9012 6609 ElectricityInfluence5450 fromof EE RESmeasures4061 1981 0 RevolutionaryМільйонМільйон тонн нафтового тоннScenario нафтового еквіваленту2012 еквіваленту2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 ВугілляНафтопродукти20 71571 30314 63822 57890%80%0 5100 3950 1760 1090 0 0 Gas Gas Units: mln toe. Heat from RES ГазТеплова енергія 137604677 90832864 64%103513572-91% 90123378 34716609 Electricity28675450 from RES21294061 16891981 834 0 14%14% НафтопродуктиЕлектроенергія 310571-33% 301214 264522 182770%0 12990 13250 12590 12520 403 0 3% 3% Oil products Oil products 20 80% 21%21% ТепловаБіопаливо енергія та відходи 4677936 28641097 64%3572430 3378319 3471225 SolarHeat energyfrom2867137 RES 212939 16890 8340 1% 1% Сонячна енергія 0 0 0-91% 0 163 642 1372 2265 3304 34%34% Електроенергія15 3105 3012 2645 182760% 1299 1325 1259 1252 403 Heat Heat Теплова енергія з ВДЕ -335% 10 399 73470% 1110 1739 2377 2980 3873 Біопаливо5.1.2 та відходи Households 936 1097 430 319 225 BiofuelSolar energy and137 wastes 39 0 0 41%41% Електроенергія з ВДЕ 198 47%172 512 1145 1782 2251 2990 3763 5309 Сонячна енергія 0 0 0 50%0 163 642 1372 2265 3304 Electricity Electricity Частка15 ВДЕ 4.9% 7.7% 7.2% 12.9%60% 21.6% 32.2% 47.1% 64.2% 91.0% 2424.8.8 2525.8.8 Теплова енергія з ВДЕ 532% 10 399 734 1110 Electricity1739 2377 2980 3873 18% Вплив заходів з ЕЕ 0 0 1822 4077 6312 Biofuel7323 and wastes8414 9531 10344 mlnmln toe toe 18% mln mlntoe toe ЕлектроенергіяResidential10 з ВДЕ sector 198has 47%significant172 512 1145 40% potential1782 2251 for 2990 increasing 3763 5309 Biofuel Biofuel and wastes and wastes Всього 23467 16555 18568 1699150% 15170 14807 14403 14039 13723 18%18% Частка ВДЕ 4.9% 7.7% 7.2% 12.9% 21.6% Heat 32.2% 47.1% 64.2% 91.0% energy efficiency 22%and32% energy saving as well Electricityas the33% industry. 43% Вплив заходів з ЕЕ 0 0 1822 407730% 6312 7323 8414 9531 10344 Solar energySolar energy 10 40% Всього 23467 16555 18568 16991 15170 Oil products14807 14403 14039 13723 8% 8% In addition, there is also the largest potential Heat for useof 21%21% Heat fromHeat RESfrom RES 5 13% 20% 33% 43% 5%5% 5% 5%10%10% 22% 30% renewable8% energy7% sources. Gas Electricity Electricity from RESfrom RES 5% 10% Oil products 5 13% 20% Under the conditions of the Liberal Coal Scenario, which 2012 2050 0 8% 7% 0% Gas 2012 2050 does5% not define target energy efficiency indicators, economic 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 10% Рис. 5.10. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів населенням за Ліберальним сценарієм Share of RES Рис. 5.10. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів населенням за Ліберальним сценарієм feasibility of energy saving and use of the modern Coal efficient 0 0% Figure 5.8 Final energy consumptionЛіберальний by сценарійindustry under the 25 25 42%Ліберальний45% 45% сценарій 20122012 20152015 20202020 2025202542%20302030 2035 2035 2040 20402045 20452050household20502012 2015 2020equipment2025 2030 is2035 extremely2040 2045 high2050 (Figure Share5.10 of RES). Energy Liberal Scenario Share of RES 1% Coal Coal 715 715 303 303 646 646 566 566 510 510 418 418 Share324 of RES324 195 195 16 16 3% 6% Coal Gas 13760 9083 10419 9446 40%7823 7722 6794 5707 4934demand could be reduced by 36% in 2035 3%and by 42% in 2050 UnitsGas : mln toe. 13760 9083 10419 9446 40%7823 7722 6794 5707 4934 Oil products 71 14 10 0 0 Electricity0 Electricity from0 RESfrom RES0 0 Oil20 products 71 14 32%10 0 0 0 0 0 0 4% Gas Heat Heat20 46774677 28642864 3588358832%3146314635%26872687 2056 2056 1480 14801224 1224 960compared960 to1% 3% similar years of the Conservative Scenario. Electricity 3105 3012 2690 2349-42% 212435% 2124 Heat from2117 RES 2119 2108 6% Coal Electricity 3105-36% 3012 2690 2349-42% 2124 2124 Heat from2117 RES 2119 2108 13% 3% Oil products Biofuel Biofuel and and wastes wastesAt the same time,936 936 final1097-36%1097 energy430 430 319 consumption319 225 225 137 137 of39 industrial39 0 0 Energy0 0 efficiency improvements, as well as the use ofRES Solar energy 0 0 0 0 30% 030% 170 Solar energy1091 2426 3713 Gas Solar energy 0 0 0 0 0 170 Solar energy1091 2426 3713 4% 39% Heat Heat sectorHeat15 from from RES RES will not exceed 5 the5 value10 10 317 of317 the346 346 base361 361 year433 433 under423 423 the387 387 406will406 allow reducing the share of fossil fuels24% (gas, coal and oil Electricity15 from RES 198 172 462 619 812 1032 Biofuel and1244 wastes 1465 1705 13% Electricity from RES 198 21%17221% 462 61925% 812 1032 Biofuel and1244 wastes 1465 1705 Oil products Total 4.9% 7.7% 6.5% 7.6% 9.6%25% 12.6% 20.7% 31.6% 42.1% 23.5 13.7 Electricity RevolutionaryTotal Scenario 4.9%(Figure7.7% 5.9).6.5% FEC will7.6% increase9.6% 12.6% within20.7% the31.6% products)42.1% 20% in the final consumption from 62% in 2012 to 36% Share of RES 0 0 1827 4278 6940 8039 Electricity9303 10047 10225 Share of RES 0 0 1827 427820% 6940 8039 Electricity9303 10047 10225 mln toe 39% mln toe Heat Influenceperiod of EE measures of 2020-2040 and23467 decrease13%1655513% 18563 after16790 2040.1454220% Moreover,14091 13513 results13523 13842in 2050. It is expected59% that the share of RES24% in the household Biofuel and wastes Influence10 of EE measures 23467 16555 18563 16790 14542 Heat14091 13513 13523 13842 10 36% Heat 42% 15% 36% 42% 20% 23.5 13.7 Solar Electricity energy 10% 15% Oil products 10% Oil products mln toe mln toe 40 8% 8% 10% 59% 28% Heat Biofuel from and RES wastes 5 8% 7% 8% 10% Gas 5 5% 7% Gas 5% Electricity Solar energy from RES 5% Coal 5% Coal 2012 205028% Heat from RES 0 0% Share of RES 0 0% Share of RES 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Electricity from RES 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Рис. 5.13. Кінцеве споживання2012 енергетичних ресурсів транспортом2050 за Революційним сценарієм 4% 1% 3% 18 Революційний120% сценарій 4% 1% 3% Coal 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 Influence2035 of EE measures2040 2045 2050 Coal Рис.Вугілля 5.13. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів12 транспортом4 11 за Революційним11 сценарієм12 12 10 5 0 16 3% 12% Gas Газ 2050 1572 125097% 670 220 214 1191 1522 0 Gas 100% 3% 12% Нафтопродукти18 8588 6554 7818 Революційний6924120% 5613 сценарій Electricity4426 from RES2684 1199 3 13% Oil products 13% Електроенергія14 2012750 2015553 2020620 2025580 2030528 Influence2035647 of EE measures2040687 7492045 2542050 Oil products Вугілля 12 4 11 11 12 12 10 5 0 36% Heat Біопаливо16 та відходи -290 % 34 95097% 2207 3169 Biofuel3521 and wastes3663 3306 3787 36% ГазЕлектроенергія12 з ВДЕ 205048 157232 1250120-56% 67036380% 724220 1098214 16321191 22511522 3346 0 Heat 62% 100% Electricity from RES 13.8 НафтопродуктиЧастка ВДЕ 85880% 65541% 781810% 692424% 561338% 442647% 54%2684 62%1199 97% 3 23.5 Electricity 14 20% mln23 toe.5 27% mln13 toe .8 Electricity ЕлектроенергіяВплив10 заходів з ЕЕ 7500 5530 620196 1220580 2573528 Electricity3975647 5123687 6914749 9319254 54% 20% mln toe 59% 27% mln toe Biofuel and wastes БіопаливоВсього та відходи 11448-290 % 874934 10768950 10756220760% 102663169 Biofuel99183521 and wastes98683663 90323306 73903787 59% Biofuel and wastes Електроенергія12 8 з ВДЕ 4847% 32 120-56% 36380% 724 109829% 1632 2251 56%3346 Solar energy Частка ВДЕ 0% 1% 62%10% 24% 38% Oil products47% 54% 62% 97% 7% 38% Solar energy Вплив10 заходів з ЕЕ 0 0 196 1220 2573 Electricity3975 5123 6914 9319 15% 7% Heat from RES 6 40% Всього 11448 54%8749 10768 1075660% 10266 9918 9868 9032 7390 15% Heat from RES 24% Gas Electricity from RES 8 4 47% 29% 56% Oil products Electricity from RES 20% 2012 2050 10% 38% 6 2 40% Coal Рис. 5.12. Кінцеве споживання2012 енергетичних ресурсів транспортом за2050 Ліберальним сценарієм 0% 1% 24% Рис. 5.12. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів транспортом за Ліберальним сценарієм Gas 18 Ліберальний25% сценарій 4 0 0% Share of RES 18 2012 2015 2020 202521%Ліберальний203025% сценарій2035Influence 20of 40EE measures2045 2050 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 20% Coal 12 4 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 10% Coal 16 2012 2015 2020 202521% 2030 2035Influence 20of 40EE measures2045 2 2050 GasCoal 2050 12 1572 4 1574 11 1778 11 1820 12 1984 12 2015 12 1119 121414 12 16 0% 1% Oil Gasproducts 85882050 65541572 82951574 8397 177820%8947 1820 9080 Electricity1984 8301 from2015 RES 7198 11196343 1414 Electricity14 750 553 630 636 645 783 1084 1492 15750 4% 0% Share of RES Oil products 8588-9% 6554 8295 8397 20%8947 9080 Electricity8301 from RES 7198 6343 Coal BiofuelElectricity and14 wastes 0 750 34 553 23915%630 491 636 447 645 422 783 612 1084 756 14921213 15752012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Electricity from RES 48 32 108 -21689% 247 380 637 1031 1274 Biofuel12 and wastes 0 -9% 34 23915% 491 447 Biofuel422 and wastes612 756 1213 Share of RES 0% 1% 3% 6% -29% 6% 6% 10% 15% 21% 7% Electricity12 from RES 48 32 108 16815% 247 380 Biofuel and637 wastes 1031 1274 18% Influence of EE measures 0 0 108 495 721 1231 2331 4338 4878 Gas Share10 of RES 0% 1% 3% 6% 6% 6% 10% 15% 21% Total 11448 8749 10856 11481 1211715% 12661 Electricity12660 11608 11831 Influence of EE measures 0 10%0 108 495 721 1231 2331 4338 4878 4% 10 9% 29% Coal Total8 11448 8749 10856 11481 12117 12661 Electricity12660 11608 11831 Oil products 6% 10% 45% 10% Oil products9% 29% 7% 8 11.418% 9.3 6 6% 10% Gas 6% 6% Oil products mln toe mln toe 51% Heat 6 Gas 4 6% 6% 5% 3% Gas Oil products 4 45% Electricity 2 1% 3% 5% Coal 75%11.4 9.3 0% 2 Coal mln toe mln toe 51% Heat 0 1% 0% Biofuel and wastes 0% Share of RES 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0 0% Share of RES 2012 2050 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Electricity Рис. 5.15. Кінцеве споживання75% енергетичних ресурсів сферою послуг за Революційним сценарієм

9 100% Biofuel and wastes 88%Революційний сценарій Influence of EE measures 7% 11% 12% 18% 8 2012 2012 2015 20202050202590% 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal Вугілля 161 67 164 130 67 Electricity100 from RES79 72 74 7% 11% Рис. 5.15. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів сферою послуг за Революційним сценарієм 18% 10% 12% Газ 463 195 71%542 48880% 388 295 267 233 184 Coal 7 Heat from RES Gas Нафтопродукти 78 92 60 28 0 0 2 0 0 9 -29% 100% 10% Теплова енергія 2326 63%1555 2117 189270% 1704 1231 807 508 183 Революційний сценарій Influence of EE measures 11.4 11.8 Gas Електроенергія6 1861 1777 151388% 1286 1011 Solar energy967 849 802 247 13% Oil products Біопаливо та відходи 201227 201546 2020311 202521890% 2030313 2035440 2040391 1802045 205080 mln toe mln toe 8 52% 60% Electricity from RES 11.4 11.8 ВугілляСонячна5 енергія 1610 670 1640 1300 670 Biofuel100 14and wastes11879 52572 101274 Oil products ГазТеплова енергія з ВДЕ 4632 1955 71%542236 488411 545388 747295 901267 897233 850184 mln toe 13% mln toe 80%50% Heat НафтопродуктиЕлектроенергія7 з ВДЕ 7811 9 10192 29360 80628 13870 Heat1642 from0 RES 20182 24100 3252 0 54% 41% - 27% -29% Electricity ТепловаЧастка 4енергія ВДЕ 23262.9% 63%15554.0% 16.0%2117 27.3%1892 41.5%1704 52.3%1231 63.1%807 71.3%508 88.3%183 70%40% 75% Heat ЕлектроенергіяВплив6 заходів з ЕЕ 18610 17770 1513750 12861283 15011011 Solar1993 energy967 2329849 2429802 2400247 Electricity 27% Heat 54% БіопаливоВсього3 та відходи 503727 383846 5236311 5258218 5415313 5436440 5433391 5625180 588380 75% 52% 60%30% Electricity Сонячна5 енергія 0 0 0 0 0 OilBiofuel products27% 14and wastes118 525 29%1012 Biofuel and wastes Теплова енергія з ВДЕ 2 5 236 411 545 747 901 897 850 2012 2050 2 16% 520%0% Електроенергія з ВДЕ 41% 11 9 101 293 806 1387 GasElectricity1642 2018 2410 3252 4 - 27% Biofuel and wastes Частка ВДЕ1 3% 2.9% 4.0% 16.0% 27.3% 41.5% 52.3% 63.1% 71.3% 88.3% Рис. 5.14. Кінцевого2012 споживання енергетичних ресурсів сферою послуг2050 за Ліберальним сценарієм Вплив заходів з ЕЕ 4% 0 0 750 128340%10% 1501 1993 2329 2429 2400 27% CoalHeat Всього3 5037 3838 5236 5258 5415 5436 5433 5625 5883 0 30%0% Рис.9 5.14. Кінцевого споживання енергетичних ресурсів сферою послуг за Ліберальним60% сценарієм ShareOil products 27%of RES 29% Ліберальний сценарій 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 52% Share of RES 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20502 16% 20% Вугілля8 9 161 67 164 110 6760% 100 70 72 74 Gas Ліберальний сценарій Electricity from RES Газ 463 195 556 503 52%50%445 432 Share527 of RES 656 7161 3% 2% 3% 1% 3% Нафтопродукти7 782012 922015 41%632020 482025 212030 20 2035 21 2040 22 2045 23 2050 4% 1% 3%10% Вугілля8 161 67 164 110 67 Heat100 from RES 70 72 74 Coal Coal Теплова енергія 2326 1555 2163 -212026% 2217 2014 Electricity1689 from1337 RES 915 4% ЕлектроенергіяГаз 1861 463-30%1777 195 1536 556 1423 503 137950%445 1346 432 1310 5271281 65612260 716 0% 2% Нафтопродукти6 7 78 92 41%63 4840% 21 Solar 20energy 21 22 23 9% Share Gasof RES Біопаливо та відходи 27 4632% 311 152 66 82 Heat 78from RES 78 79 СонячнаТеплова енергія енергія 02326 01555 02163 0-212026% 02217 109 2014 400 1689 988 13371683 9152012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 ТепловаЕлектроенергія5 енергія з ВДЕ 21861 -305%1777 1911536 2331423 2981379 425 Biofuel1346 and483 wastes1310 422 1281 387 1226 Oil products 6 25% 40% Solar energy ЕлектроенергіяБіопаливо та звідходи ВДЕ 119 27 101 4632%264 311 375 15230%527 66 654 82 769 78 885 78 991 79 ЧасткаСонячна ВДЕ енергія 2.9% 0 4.0% 014.6% 015.3% 017.7% 024.5% Electricity10932.4% 40041.3% 98851.5% 1683 37% 2% 3% 1% 3% 4 Biofuel and wastes 1% 3% 17% Heat ВпливТеплова заходів5 енергія з ЕЕ з ВДЕ 0 2 25%0 5 739 191 1576 233 1896 298 2248 425 2415 4832313 4222190 387 5.0 5.9 4% Coal ВсьогоЕлектроенергія з ВДЕ 18%5037 119 3838 101 5248 264 4964 375 502030%527 5181 Heat654 5347 7695741 8856093 991 Electricity 55% Electricity Частка3 4 ВДЕ 15% 2.9% 4.0% 14.6% 15.3%20% 17.7% 30%24.5% 32.4% 41.3% 26%51.5% mln toe9% mln toe 2% Вплив заходів з ЕЕ 15% 0 0 739 1576 1896 Oil 2248products 2415 2313 2190 Gas Всього 18%5037 3838 5248 4964 5020 5181 Heat 5347 5741 6093 46% Biofuel and wastes 2 15% Oil products 3 15% 20% Gas30% 26% 4% 15% 10% Oil products Solar energy 1 37% 2 3% Coal 17% Heat Gas Heat from RES 10% 5.0 5.9 0 4% 0% Share of RES 55% Electricity 1 3% mln toe mln toe 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal 2050 Electricity from RES 2012 Biofuel and wastes 0 0% Share of RES 46% 2% 1% 15% 20121% 20153% 2020 2025 2030 1%2035 2040 2045 2050 Рис. 5.17. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів сільським господарством за Революційним Solar сценарієм energy Coal Революційний сценарій 4 2012 2015 202 0 2025120% 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2% 2% 12% 1% 96% Influence Heat of EE from measures RES 1% 9%3% 1% Gas Вугілля 14 9 13-5% 7 4 2 1 1 0 15% Газ 153 129 128 125 120 104 Electricity from77 RES 51 0 Coal 3 Oil products 2012 2050100% Electricity from RES 2% 16% 12% Нафтопродукти 1364-4% 1302 1286 1146 974 771 536 285 0 9% Gas Теплова енергія 312 211 272 274 275 247 202 163 84 Heat 37% 15% Рис.Електроенергія 5.17. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів312 сільським273 80% господарством251 203 за Революційним152 Heat from144 RES сценарієм123 109 33 5.0 Oil products 3 16% 6.1 Electricity Біопаливо та відходи 20 68%19 112 Революційний80%404 739 сценарій1119 1491 1845 2232 mln toe 4 2012 2015 202 0 2025120% 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 37% 6% mln toe 20% Heat Сонячна енергія 0 0 96%0 0 0Біопаливо Influence 0ofта EEвідходи measures0 0 0 Biofuel and wastes ВугілляТеплова2 енергія з ВДЕ 140 91 1330-5% 597 884 1502 2261 288 1 388 0 5.0 6.1 54% Electricity ГазЕлектроенергія з ВДЕ 15320 12916 12849 125127 208120 Electricity245104 29377 32751 439 0 46% Solar energy 3 60% Electricity from RES mln toe 6% mln toe 20% НафтопродуктиЧастка ВДЕ 13642% 13022% 12869% 114625%100% 40%974 54%771 68%536 80%285 96% 0 28% Biofuel and wastes 2 -4% Heat from RES ТепловаВплив енергія заходів з ЕЕ 40% 3120 2110 272105 274135 132275 Heat 117247 109202 118163 11584 ЕлектроенергіяВсього 3122195 1960273 80% 2140251 2346203 2562152 Heat from2782144 RES 2950123 3068109 317633 46% 1% Solar energy 3 40% Electricity from RES Біопаливо та відходи 20 19 112 404 739 11194% 1491 1845 22324% 1 25% 68% 80% Oil products 28% Heat from RES Сонячна енергія 0 0 0 0 0Біопаливо0 та відходи0 0 0 Теплова2 енергія з ВДЕ 0 1 30 59 88 150 226 288 388 2012 2050 1% 20% Gas Electricity from RESЕлектроенергія1 з ВДЕ 54%20 16 49 127 208 245 293 327 439 Рис. 5.16. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів сільським господарством за Ліберальним сценарієм 2% 9% 60% Electricity Ліберальний сценарій Частка ВДЕ 2% 2% 9% 25% 40% 54% 68% 80% 96% 2 2% Coal 4 2012 2012 2015 202020502025 90%2030 2035 2040 2045 Вплив2050 заходів з ЕЕ 40% 0 0 105 135 132 Heat 117 109 118 115 Вугілля 14 9 12 79%13 15 13 11 9 Всього 10 2195 1960 2140 23460% 2562 2782 2950 3068 3176 Рис. 5.16. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів сільським господарством за Ліберальним Share ofсценарієм RES Газ 153 129 104 -5115% 126 126 119 105 36 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 40% Share of RES Ліберальний80% сценарій 4% 4% Нафтопродукти3 1364 1302 1194 1345 1481 1412 1245 1027 1 62 25% Oil products 4 2012 2015 2020 2025 90%2030 Electricity2035 from2040 RES 2045 2050 Теплова енергія 312 211 255 278 299 301 296 302 324 Вугілля 14 9 12 79%13 15 13 11 9 1 Електроенергія 312 -13%273 242 249 70%248 246 Share239 of RES 231 243 Газ 153 129 104 -5115% 126 126 119 105 36 20% Gas Біопаливо3 та відходи 20 19 19 21 2380% 248 Heat from 529RES 861 21271 1% 1% 1% 3% Нафтопродукти3 1364 1302 1194 1345 1481 1412 1245 1027 62 9% 1% Coal Сонячна енергія 0 0 0 0 60% 0 0 Electricity0 from RES0 0 2% Теплова енергія 312 211 40%255 278 299 301 296 302 324 2% Теплова енергія з ВДЕ 0 -131% 23 31 4070% Biofuel63 and 85wastes 95 137 Coal Gas ЕлектроенергіяЕлектроенергія2 з ВДЕ 20 312 16 273 42 242 66 249 95 248 119 246 140 239 160 231 196 243 7% 3 50% Heat from RES 0 14% 0% ЧасткаБіопаливо ВДЕ та відходи 2% 20 2% 19 4% 19 6% 21 7% 23 17% Electricity248 28% 529 40% 861 79% 2127 14% 60% 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Share Oil of products RES ВпливСонячна заходів енергія з ЕЕ 0 0 0 0 356 40%0 363 0 368 0 371 0 395 0 395 0 166 0 Теплова енергія з ВДЕ 0 1 23 3140% 40 Biofuel63 and 85wastes 95 137 Всього2 2195 196028% 1889 2117 2326 2528 Heat 2664 2791 3125 Heat Електроенергія2 з ВДЕ 20 16 42 66 50%95 13% 119 140 160 5% 196 12% Electricity Частка ВДЕ 2% 2% 4% 6%30% 7% Oil products17% 28% 40% 79% 14% Вплив заходів з ЕЕ 17%0 0 356 363 368 371 395 395 166 1% 1%2.1%2 3.3%2 ElectricityCoal 1 40% 1% Всього2 2195 1960 1889 2117 2326 2528 Heat 2664 2791 3125 mln toe mln toe 28% 20% Gas 13% 5% Biofuel and wastes 7% 7% Gas 1 17% 30% Oil products 14% 1 4% 6% 10% Coal 14% 62% 70% Solar energy 2% 2% Oil products 20% Share Gasof RES Heat from RES 0 7% 0% 12% Heat 1 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2% 4% 6% 10% Coal 14% Electricity from RES 2% 20122.2 20503.2 Electricity 0 0% Share of RES mln toe mln toe 1% 1% Biofuel and wastes 20121% 20151% 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 20452% 2050 Coal Gas 62% 70% Solar energy 7% 6% 14% 5% 10% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% Oil products Coal Heat from RES 8% Heat 7% 6% Gas Electricity from RES 14% 14% 5% 10% Electricity 2012 2050 2.2 3.1 Oil products mln toe Biofuel and wastes mln toe 8% Heat Solar energy 14% 2.2 62% 3.1 Electricity Heat from RES mln toe 68%mln toe Biofuel and wastes Electricity from RES 62% Solar energy Heat from RES 2012 205068% Electricity from RES

2012 2050 Рис. 5.8. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів промисловістю за Ліберальним сценарієм

35 Ліберальний18% 20% сценарій Рис. 5.8. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів2012 промисловістю2015 2020 за Ліберальним17% 2025 сценарієм2030 2035 Influence2040 of EE measures2045 2050 Coal 8310 5569 16%5445 6670 737118% 8307 9170 9934 10558 Gas 30 5272 2762 2151 2381-21% 2371 2417 2432 2474 2467 35 Ліберальний20% сценарій Electricity from RES Oil products 1246 13%814 1058 18%1132 1142 1176 1182 1352 1322 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 16% 2035 2040 2045 2050 Heat 4538 2870 316817% 3168 3027 Influence2845 of2571 EE measures2441 2139 Coal 8310 5569 5445 6670 737118% 8307 Heat9170 from RES9934 10558 Electricity 5102 -184065%16% 4982 5065 4618 4786 4849 4696 4514 Gas 30 25 5272 2762 2151 2381-21% 2371 14% 2417 2432 2474 2467 Biofuel and wastes 46 86 52 73 94 Electricity123 from153 RES 184 211 Oil products 1246 13%814 1058 1132 1142 1176 Solar1182 energy 1352 1322 Solar energy 0 0 0 0 16% 0 0 0 0 0 Heat 453811% 2870 3168 3168 3027 2845 2571 2441 2139 Heat from RES 5 10 280 348 40712% Heat600 from RES736 771 905 Electricity25 20 5102 -184065% 4982 5065 4618 4786 Biofuel4849 and wastes4696 4514 Electricity from RES 325 232 856 1335 14%1766 2325 2848 3246 3651 Biofuel and wastes 46 86 52 73 94 123 153 184 211 Total 24844 16408 17992 20172 2079410% 22578 Solar energy23941 25100 25766 Solar energy 9%11%0 0 0 0 0 0 Electricity0 0 0 Share of RES 1.5% 2.0% 6.6% 8.7% 10.9% 13.5% 15.6% 16.7% 18.5% Heat from15 RES 5 10 280 348 40712% 600 736 771 905 Influence20 of EE measures 0 0 220 1625 37458% Biofuel5106 and 5942wastes 6432 6990 Electricity from RES 7% 325 232 856 1335 1766 2325 Heat2848 3246 3651 18% 21% Total 9% 24844 16408 17992 20172 2079410% 22578 23941 25100 25766 6% Electricity Share15 of 10RES 1.5% 2.0% 6.6% 8.7% 10.9% 13.5% Oil15.6% products16.7% 18.5% Influence of EE measures 7% 0 0 220 1625 37458% 5106 Heat 5942 6432 6990 2% 4% 18% Gas 21% 10 5 2% 6% Oil products 2% Coal 2% 4% Gas 5 0 2% 0% Share of RES 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20502% Coal

0 0% Share of RES 2012 20151% 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal Мільйон тонн нафтового еквіваленту Gas 1% 14% Coal 3% Oil products Мільйон тонн нафтового еквіваленту 21% 1% 34% Gas 14% Heat 3% 41% Oil products 21% 1% 24.8 34% 25.8 Electricity 18% Heat mln toe mln toe 41% Biofuel and wastes 18% 24.8 25.8 Electricity 18% Solar energy mln toe mln toe Biofuel and wastes 18% 21% 8% Рис. 5.8. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів промисловістю за Ліберальним сценарієм 5% 5% 10% Heat from RES Solar energy Electricity from RES 35 Ліберальний20% сценарій 21% 8% Рис. 5.8. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів промисловістю за Ліберальним18% сценарієм 5% Heat from RES 2012 2015 202017% 2025 2030 2035 Influence2040 of EE measures2045 2050 5% 10% Coal 8310 5569 5445 6670 737118% 8307 9170 9934 10558 2012 2050 35 16% 20% Gas 30 5272 2762 2151 2381Ліберальний-2118%% 2371 сценарій2417 2432 2474 2467 Electricity from RES 13% Electricity from RES Рис. 5.10. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів населенням за Ліберальним сценарієм Oil products 12462012 8142015 1058202017%11322025 1142203016% 11762035 Influence11822040 of EE measures13522045 20501322 Coal 8310 5569 5445 6670 737118% 8307 9170 9934 10558 Heat 4538 2870 16%3168 3168 3027 2845 Heat from2571 RES 2441 2139 2012 2050 Gas 30 5272 -18%2762 2151 2381-21% 2371 2417 Electricity2432 from RES2474 2467 Ліберальний сценарій Electricity25 5102 406513% 4982 5065 461814% 4786 4849 4696 451425 42% 45% Biofuel Oil and products wastes 461246 86814 105852 113273 11429416% 1176123 1182153 1352184Рис. 5.10.1322211 Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів2012 населенням2015 за2020 Ліберальним2025 сценарієм2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Solar energy Coal 715 303 646 566 510 418 Share of RES324 195 16 Solar Heat energy 11%45380 28700 31680 31680 30270 28450 Heat from2571 0RES 24410 21390 Electricity25 5102 -184065% 4982 5065 461812% 4786 4849 4696 Gas4514 13760 9083 10419 9446 40%7823 7722 6794 5707 4934 Heat 20from RES 5 10 280 348 40714% 600 736 771 25 905 Ліберальний45% сценарій Biofuel and wastes 46 86 52 73 94 123 Biofuel and153 wastes 184 Oil products211 2012 71 2015 14 2020 10 202542% 0 2030 0 2035 Electricity0 2040 from0 2045 RES 0 2050 0 Electricity from RES 325 232 856 1335 1766 2325 Solar energy2848 3246 365120 32% Solar energy 11%0 0 0 0 10%0 0 0 0 Coal Heat 0 7154677 3032864 6463588 5663146 51035%2687 418 Share2056 of RES3241480 1951224 16 960 Total Heat from RES 9% 24844 5 1640810 17992280 20172348 2079440712% 22578600 Electricity23941736 25100771 Electricity25766905 3105 3012 2690 2349-42%40% 2124 2124 Heat from2117 RES 2119 2108 Share of RES20 1.5% 2.0% 6.6% 8.7% 10.9% 13.5% Biofuel15.6% and wastes16.7% Gas 18.5% 13760 9083-36% 10419 9446 7823 7722 6794 5707 4934 15Electricity from RES 325 232 856 1335 1766 2325 2848 3246 Oil products Biofuel3651 and wastes 71 936 141097 10 430 0 319 0 225 Electricity0 137 from0 RES39 0 0 0 0 Influence of EE measures 0 0 220 1625 37458% 5106 5942 6432 6990 30% Total 7% 24844 16408 17992 20172 2079410% 22578 Heat 23941 25100 Heat Solar2025766 energy 4677 0 2864 0 358832%0 3146 0 2687 0 2056 170 Solar1480 energy1091 12242426 9603713 9% 18% Electricity 21% 35% Share15 of RES 1.5% 2.0% 6.6% 8.7% 10.9% 13.5% 15.6% 16.7% Electricity Heat18.5%15 from RES 3105 5 3012 10 2690 317 2349-42%346 2124 361 2124 Heat433 from2117 RES423 2119 387 2108 406 6% -36% Biofuel and wastes 10Influence of EE measures 7% 0 0 220 1625 37458% 5106 Oil Heat products5942 6432 Biofuel Electricity6990 and wastes from RES 936 198 1097 17221%430 462 319 619 22525%812 1371032 391244 01465 01705 18% Solar Total energy21% 04.9% 07.7% 06.5% 07.6%30% 09.6% 170 Solar12.6% energy109120.7% 242631.6% 371342.1% Share of RES 0 0 1827 4278 6940 8039 Electricity9303 10047 10225 10 2% 4%6% Gas Oil products Heat15 from RES 5 10 317 346 36120% 433 423 387 406 Electricity Influence from of RES EE measures 19823467 13%1721655521% 46218563 6191679025%81214542 1032 Biofuel14091 and1244 wastes13513 146513523 170513842 5 2% 10 Heat 2%4% Coal Gas Total 4.9% 7.7% 6.5% 7.6% 9.6% 12.6%36%20.7% 31.6% 42.1% 42% 2% Share of RES 0 0 1827 4278 694015% 8039 Electricity9303 10047 10225 5 20% 2% Influence of EE measures 2346710%13%16555 18563 16790 14542 14091 Oil13513 products 13523 13842 0 0%2% Share Coal of RES 10 8% 8% 10% 36% Heat 42% 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 5 7% 15% Gas Share of RES 0 0% 5% 10% Oil products 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 5% 8% 8% 10% Coal 5 7% 1% Coal 5% Gas 0 Мільйон тонн нафтового еквіваленту 0% Share of RES 5% 1% Coal 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal Gas Мільйон тонн нафтового еквіваленту 14% Gas 0 0% Share of RES 3% Oil products Рис. 5.9. Кінцеве споживання1% енергетичних ресурсів промисловістю за Революційним сценарієм 21% 1% 14% 2012 4%2015 20203% 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 34% 3% Oil products 35 100% Coal 21% 1% Heat 88% Революційний сценарій Influence of EE measures 34% 1% 41% Heat 4% 3% 2012 3%2015 12%2020 2025 2030 2035 Gas 2040 2045 2050 Electricity Coal 8310 5569 5444 557590% 5439 Electricity Coal4910 from RES3739 2603 547 24.8 25.8 41% 30 13% 18% Electricity Gas 5272 2762 2146 2059 1830 1552 Oil products1152 776 276 mln24 toe .8 mln25 toe.8 Biofuel and wastes Oil products 1246 3% 814 12%1055 89180% 774 Gas 676 909 223 0 18% 18% 36% Heat from RES mln toe mln toe Heat 4538 2870 3084-43% 2815 2538 2090 Heat 1516 1106 503 Biofuel and wastes 25 Рис. 5.9.13% Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів промисловістю61% за Революційним сценарієм Oil products 18% Solar energy Electricity 5102-27% 4065 4921 448470% 3320 Solar energy3374 3116 3038 983 Biofuel and wastes 23.5 46 86 8813.8 170 278 478Electricity 680 889 1235 8% Solar energy 35 Революційний36%100% сценарій Influence Heat of EE measures 21% 5% Heat from RES Solar energy 20% mln toe 0 27%0 mln0 toe88% 60%0 0 0 0 0 0 5% 21% 8% 10% 20 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 Biofuel and2035Biofuel wastes and wastes2040 2045 2050 5% 5% 10% Heat from RES Heat from Coal RES 23.5 59% 58310 48%105569 133445444.8 611557590% 8125439 Electricity Electricity12684910 from RES16933739 19532603 2335547 Electricity from RESElectricity from30 RES 325 232 952 281150% 4554 5728 7401 9132 12946 Gas20% mln toe 527227% 2762 mln 2146toe 2059 1830 Electricity 1552Solar energy1152 776 276 Electricity from TotalRES 2484437% 16408 18034 194157%80% 19544 20077 20206 19720 18825 15 Oil products 59% 1246 814 1055 891 774 Heat Biofuel from676 and RES wastes909 223 0 Share of Heat RES 1.5%4538 2.0%2870 7.7%3084-4318.5%% 40%2815 28.9%2538 37.2%2090 48.4%1516 60.7%1106 87.7%503 2012 2050 25 61%15% Heat Heat from RES 2012 2050 Influence Electricity of EE measures 29% 05102-27% 04065 1784921 7%2382448470% 49953320 Solar Solar7607 energy3374 energy 96763116 118123038 13931983 Рис. 5.10. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів населенням за Ліберальним сценарієм Biofuel and wastes 46 86 88 170 278 27%478 680 889 123543% Рис. 5.10. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів населенням за Ліберальним сценарієм 10 30% Electricity from RES Solar energy 19% 0 0 15% 0 60%0 Oil0 productsHeat from0 RES 0 0 0 20 Biofuel and wastes 25 Ліберальний45% сценарій Heat from RES 2012 5 10 2050344 611 812 1268 1693 1953 2335 2012 2015 2020 202542%Ліберальний2030 сценарій2035 2040 2045 significantly2050 after 2035, 48%oil products20% will remain the main 25 42% 45% ElectricityРис. 5.12. from Кінцеве RES споживання енергетичних 325ресурсів транспортом232 952 за Ліберальним281150% сценарієм4554 Gas Electricity5728 from RES7401 9132 12946 Coal 7152012 3032015 6462020 5662025 5102030 2035418 Share of RES2040324 2045195 205016 Electricity Share of RES 5 Total 8% 2484437% 16408 18034 19415 19544 20077 20206 19720 18825 Gas Coal 13760715 9083303 10419646 9446566 40%7823510 7722418 6794324 5707195 energy15493416 2012 resource up to 2050 and2050 will make10% 54% in FEC of this Gas 13760 9083 10419 9446 40%7823 7722 Electricity6794 from RES 5707 Shar2%e4934 of18 RES 1.5% 2.0% 7.7% 18.5%Ліберальний40% 25%28.9% сценарій Coal 37.2% 48.4% 60.7% 87.7% Oil products 71 14 10 0 0 0 0 0Рис. 5.12. Кінцеве0 2% споживання енергетичних ресурсів транспортом за Ліберальним сценарієм Heat 20 Oil products 71 14 32%10 0 0 Electricity0 from0 RES 0 Influencesector 0of EE (measuresFigure 5.12). 29% 20120 20150 2020178 202521%2382 20304995 2035Influence7607 20of 409676EE measures204511812 205013931 Heat 20 4677 2864 358832% 3146 35%2687 2056 1480 12240 960 0% Electricity Heat 31054677 30122864 26903588 2349-42%3146 212435%2687 21242056 Heat from21171480 RES 21191224 Coal2108960 12 4 11 1130% 12 Share of 1227%RES 12 12 1243% Heat from RES 1018 16 19% Ліберальний25% сценарій Oil products Biofuel Electricity and wastes 9363105-36%10973012 4302690 3192349-42% 2252124 2124137 211739 21190 2012Gas210802015 2020 2025 2030 20352050 204015722045 15742050 1778 1820 1984 2015 1119 1414 Biofuel and wastes 936 -36%1097 430 319 225 137 39 0 0 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Solar energy 0 0 0 0 30% 0 170 Solar energy1091 2426 Oil products3713 8588 6554 8295 21%839720% 8947 Influence9080 Electricity of EE8301 measuresfrom RES 7198 6343 Solar energy 0 0 0 0 30% 0 170 Solar energy1091 2426Coal 3713 12 4 11 11 1220% Gas12 12 12 12 Heat from RES 5 10 317 346 361 433 423 387 Electricity16 40614 750 553 630 636 645 783 1084 1492 1575 15 Heat from RES 5 10 317 346 361 433 423 387Gas 5 406 2050 1572-9% 15743% 1%1778 1820 1984 2015 1119 1414 Electricity15 from RES 198 172 462 619 812 1032 Biofuel and1244 wastes 1465 Biofuel1705 and wastes1% 8% 0 34 23915% 491 447 Coal422 612 756 1213 Electricity from RES 198 17221%21% 462 619 25%812 1032 Biofuel and1244 wastes 1465 1705 3%-2910%% 25% Oil productsElectricity 2%from RES2% 8588 48 6554 32 8295 108 8397 168 20%8947 247 9080Coal Electricity380 8301 from 637RES 71981031 63431274 Total Total 4.9%4.9% 7.7%7.7% 6.5%6.5% 7.6%7.6% 9.6%9.6% 12.6%12.6% 20.7%20.7% 31.6% 1442.1%12 Biofuel and wastes Share of RES 0 0 1827 4278 6940 8039 Electricity9303 10047ElectricityShare10225 of RES 750 0% 553 1% 630 3% 636 6% 645 6% 783 Gas6% 1084 10% 1492 15% 1575 21% Share of RES 0 0 1827 4278 20%6940 8039 Electricity9303 10047 102250 -9% 0% 15% Influence of EE measures 23467 13%1655513% 18563 16790 1454220% 14091 13513 13523BiofuelInfluence13842 and wastes of EE measures 0 0 34 0 23915%108 -24915%9%495 447 721 Share4221231 of RES6122331 7564338 1213 4878 10 Influence of EE measures 23467 16555 18563 16790 14542 14091 13513 13523Electricity1213842 from102012 RES 2015 2020 2025 203048 2035 322040 2045108 2050168 247 380 Biofuel and637 wastes 1031 1274 10 36% Heat Heat Total42%21% 11448 8749 10856 11481 12117 Oil12661 products Electricity12660 11608 11831 36% 42% 0% 1% 10%3% 6% 6% 6% 10% 15% 21% Рис. 5.9. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів промисловістю за Революційним15%15% сценарієм Share of RES 7%15% 9% 29% Influence of EE measures 34% 0 0 108 495 721 1231 2331 4338 4878 10%10% Oil Oil products products 10 8 1% 3% 1% Heat Coal 35 8% 100% Total 11448 87496% 10856 114813% 1211710% 12661 Electricity12660 11608 11831 8% 8%8% Революційний10%10% сценарій Influence of EE measures 10% Oil products 5 5 7%7% 88% Gas 9% 29% 5% 5% 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Gas 2040 2045 8 20506 24.8 6% 18.8 12% Electricity Gas Рис. 5.9. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів промисловістю за Революційним90% сценарієм 6% Coal 8310 5569 5444 5575 5%54395% Electricity4910 from RES3739 2603 547 6% 5% 10% Oil products 30 Coal Coal 18% mln toe mln toe Oil Gas products Gas 35 5272 2762 2146 2059 100%1830 1552 1152 776 6 4276 21% Biofuel and wastes 88% 80%Революційний сценарій Influence of EE measures 3% 34% 6% 7% 5% Oil products0 0 1246 814 1055 891 0%0%774 Heat from676 Share Share RES of of RES RES909 223 0 6% 69% 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 GasSolar Heat energy Heat Coal 2012 2015 2020 2025453820308310 28702035556961%204030845444-432045% 28152050557590% 25385439 20904910 15163739 11062603 4 2503547 1% Coal 25 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 205070% Electricity from RES 0% 5% Electricity Gas30 5102-275272% 40652762 49212146 44842059 33201830 Solar energy33741552 31161152 3038776 9835%276 21%3% Electricity Biofuel and wastes 46 86 88 170 278 478 680 889 1235 24.8 18.8 12% Heat from RES Oil products 1246 814 1055 89180% 774 Heat from676 RES 909 223 2 0 0 0% Coal Solar energy 1%1% 0 0 0 60%0 0 0 0 0 18%0 1%mln toe mln toe Share of RES 20 Heat 4% 4% 3%3% 4538 2870 61%3084-43% 2815 2538 Biofuel and2090 wastes 1516 1106 0%5032012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Electricity Biofuel and from wastes RES Heat from25 RES 5 10 344 611 70% 812 1268 Coal Coal 1693 1953 2335 Electricity 5102-27%48%4065 4921 4484 3320 Solar energy3374 3116 3038 0 983 69% 0% Electricity Biofuel from and RES wastes 325 46 232 86 952 88 281150%170 4554278 Electricity5728478 7401680 9132889 1294612352012 2050 Share Solar of energyRES Total 2484437% 164083% 1803412% 19415 19544 20077 Gas Gas 20206 19720 188252012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 15 Solar energy 3%0 012% 0 60%0 0 Biofuel and0 wastes 0 0 0 5% 21% Share of RES20 1.5% 2.0% 7.7% 18.5% 28.9% 37.2% 48.4% Рис.60.7% 5.11. Кінцеве87.7% споживання енергетичних ресурсів населенням за Революційним сценарієм Heat from RES Heat from13% RES13% 5 48%10 344 40%611 812 Heat Oil1268 products 1693 1953 2335 Influence Electricity of EE measuresfrom RES 29% 0 325 0 232 178952 2382281150% 49954554 7607 Oil5728 products96767401 118129132 1393112946 Electricity 25 91% Революційний100% сценарій Electricity from RES Total 2484437% 16408 18034 1941530% 36% 19544 27%20077 Heat 20206 19720 1882543% 7% 11% Influence of EE measures 10 15 19% 36% Oil products Heat 18% 2012 2015 2020 12%2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Share of RES 1.5% 2.0% 7.7% 18.5%40% 28.9% Heat37.2% 48.4% 60.7% 87.7% 2012 2050 Coal Influence of EE measures 0 0 178 2382 4995 7607 9676Вугілля11812 13931 715 303 638 57890% 510 395 176 109 0 23.5 29% 13.8 20% Electricity 7% 10%11% Electricity from RES 23.5 13.8 Gas Electricity27% Газ Рис. 5.11. Кінцеве43% споживання18% енергетичних13760 ресурсів9083 населенням10351 12% за Революційним9012 6609 сценарієм5450 4061 1981 0 5 10 20% mln toe 27% mln toe 30% Oil products Coal 20% mln 8%toe 19% 27% mln toe Biofuel and wastesНафтопродукти20 71 14 22 80%0 0 Gas0 0 0 0 59% 10% Coal Biofuel and wastes 25 91% Революційний100% Heat сценарій from RES 2% 2% 59% 20% Теплова енергія 4677 10%2864 64%3572-91% 3378 3471 Influence2867 of EE measures2129 1689 834 Gas Електроенергія 11.4 31052012 30122015 2645112020.818272025 12992030 13252035 12592040 12522045 2050403 0 5 0% Solar energy -33% 70% Gas Oil products 8% 7% Share of Solar RES energy БіопаливоВугілля та відходи mln toe 936 715 109713%303 430mln638 toe 31957890% 225 510Solar energy137395 17639 1090 00 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 7%10% Coal Газ 13760 9083 10351 9012 6609 Electricity5450 from RES4061 1981 0 2% 2% 15% Heat from RES Сонячна15 енергія 11.4 0 0 110.8 60%0 163 642 1372 2265 3304 15% Heat from RES ТепловаНафтопродукти енергія20 з ВДЕ 5 7113% 10 14 mln399 toe22 734 80%0 1110 0 Oil1739 products0 23770 29800 38730 0 0% Теплова енергіяmln toe 4677 2864 64%3572 3378 3471 Biofuel Heat fromand2867 Heat wastesRES 2129 1689 834 3% Share Electricity of RES from RESЕлектроенергія з ВДЕ 198 47%172 512 -911145% 54% 1782 2251 2990 3763 5309 1% 1% Coal Електроенергія 3105 3012 2645 50%1827 1299 1325 1259 1252 403 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20503% Electricity from RESЧастка ВДЕ 4.9% -33%7.7% 7.2% 12.9% 70% 21.6% 32.2% 47.1% 64.2% 91.0% 2050 Біопаливо та відходи75% 32%936 1097 430 319 225Electricity Solar Heat energy137 39 0 0 2012 Вплив заходів з ЕЕ 0 0 1822 4077 6312 7323 Electricity8414 9531 10344 2012 2050 Gas 10 Сонячна енергія 0 0 0 54%40%0 163 642 1372 2265 3304 Рис. 5.12. Кінцеве споживання1% енергетичних ресурсів транспортом3% за Ліберальним1% сценарієм Coal Всього 15 23467 16555 18568 16991 60% 15170 14807 14403 14039 13723 Рис.Figure 5.12. Кінцеве 5.10 споживання Final енергетичних energy ресурсів consumption транспортом за Ліберальним5% 3% by сценарієм households under Теплова енергія75% з ВДЕ 5 10 399 734 1110 Heat Biofuel 1739and wastes2377 2980 3873 Oil products 22% 47% Electricity33% 43% 21%18 Ліберальний25% сценарій Електроенергія з ВДЕ 198 172 512 30%114550% 1782 2251 Biofuel and2990 wastes 3763 5309 7% Gas Частка ВДЕ 2012 4.9% 7.7% 20507.2% 12.9% 21.6% 32.2% 47.1% 64.2% 91.0% the18 Liberal Scenario34% 2012 2015 2020 Ліберальний202521% 25% 2030сценарій 2035Influence 20of 40EE measures2045 2050 32% Electricity 5% Heat Вплив заходів з ЕЕ 0 0 1822 4077 6312 Oil products7323 8414 9531 10344 Coal 2012 12 2015 4 202011 202521%11 203012 203512 204012 204512 10205012 13% 40% Biofuel and wastes Units: mln16 toe.21% InfluenceOil products of EE measures5 ВсьогоFigure 5.12 Final energy23467 consumption16555 18568 1699120%by transport15170 14807 under14403 the14039 13723 Coal Gas 122050 15724 111574 177811 7% 182012 198412 201512 111912 Рис.1414 5.14.12 Кінцевого2012 споживання енергетичних ресурсів сферою2050 послуг за Ліберальним сценарієм Heat Oil16 products 34% 8588 6554 8295 8397 8947 Electricity9080 8301 7198 6343 8% 7% 22% Gas 33% 43% Gas 24.8 2050 1572 181574.8 177812% 182020% 1984 Heat Electricity2015 from RES 1119 5%1414 30% Electricity14 750 553 630 636 645 783 1084 1492 Liberal1575 Scenario 10% Oil productsenergy18% mln consumptiontoe 8588will increase-65549% mln8295 toesignificantly8397 20%8947 after9080 Electricity 8301 2035from RES 7198and Рис. 5.14.63439 Кінцевого споживання енергетичних ресурсів сферою послуг за Ліберальним60% сценарієм Oil products ElectricityBiofuel14 and wastes 750 0 553 34 63023915% 636491 645447 Biofuel783422 and wastes1084612 1492756 Units:12131575 mln toe. 13% Ліберальний сценарій Coal 24.8 18.8 -29%12% Electricity 0 5 52%0%20% Share of RES BiofuelElectricity and wastes12 from RES 0 48 -69%9% 34 32 23915%108 491168 447247 422380 Biofuel and612637 wastes 1031756 12741213 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 could reach 42% in 2050. -29% Solar energy Вугілля9 8 161 67 164 11060% 67 Gas 100 70 72 74 ElectricityShare12 from of18% RES mln toe 48 0% 321% mln1083% toe 1686% 15%2476% 380Biofuel6% and63710% wastes 103115% 2012127421% 2015 8%2020 7%2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Share of RES Biofuel and wastes Газ 5% 463 195 556 Ліберальний52%50310% сценарій50%445 432 Electricity 527from RES 656 716 Influence10 of EE measures 0 0 108 495 721 1231 2331 4338 4878 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Share of 2040RES 2045 2050 Share of RES5% Households21% could0% completely1% 3% 6% abandon15%6% direct6% 10% use15% Нафтопродукти21% Consumption by the78 road92 freight41%63 transport48 21 will 20 make21 up to22 23 Total 11448 69%8749 10856 11481 12117 Heat12661 Electricity from RES12660 11608Вугілля8118317 161 67 164 110 67 Coal100 70 72 74 Influence of EE measures 0 0 10%108 495 721 1231 Solar energy2331 4338 Теплова04878 енергія 2326 1555 2163 -212026%0% 2217 2014 Heat from1689 RES 1337 915 10 9% Газ 29% 463 195 556 503 50%445 432 Electricity 527from RES 656 716 Totalof fossil8 fuels21% if appropriate11448 8749 state10856 policies11481 12117 are used12661 Electricity for12660 the11608 60%Електроенергія11831 in the structure of the1861 oil-30% 1777products1536 while1423 buses1379 and1346 cars1310 will1281 1226 5% 10% Electricity Heat from from RES RES Нафтопродукти7 6 2012 20151% 2020 2025 203078 2035 922040 204541%63 205048 2140% Share20 of Solar RES energy21 22 23 6% 10% 9% Oil products Біопаливо29% та відходи 3% 27 4632% 311 -6%26%152 66 Heat Coal82 from RES 78 78 79 implementation8 of the Revolutionary Scenario. In this case ТепловаmakeСонячна енергія енергія 16% and 17% respectively2326 0 1555 0 in2163 2050.0 2120 3%For0 2217 comparison,0 2014 109 1689 400shares1337 988 9151683 6 Електроенергія 1861 1777 1536 1423 1379 1346 1310 1281 1226 2012 6% 2050 10% Electricity from RES Теплова5 енергія з ВДЕ -320% 5 191 233 298 425 Biofuel and483 wastes 422 387 6% Oil products Біопаливо6 та відходи 27 46 311 152 40%66 82Solar energy78 78 79 RES will grow rapidly6% starting from 2020 and will reach 32% ofЕлектроенергія these зtransport ВДЕ means 119were25%32% 10131%, 26417% and375 44%527 respectively Gas654 769 in885 991 Рис. 5.11. Кінцеве6 споживання енергетичних ресурсів населенням за Революційним сценарієм Gas Сонячна енергія 4% 0 0 0 0 30%0 109 400 988 1683 4 6% Частка ВДЕ 1% 3% 2.9% 4.0% 14.6% 15.3%6% 17.7% 24.5% Electricity32.4% 41.3% 51.5% 942012 6% 2050 Теплова5 енергія4 13% з ВДЕ 2 5 191 233 298 425 Biofuel Coal and483 wastes 422 387 in 2035 (Figure3% 5.11). 5% 2012.Вплив заходів Electric з ЕЕ vehicles could0 constitute0 739 up1576 3%to 189640% of2248 Oil theproducts 2415private2313 2190 25Рис. 5.11. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів населенням91% за РеволюційнийРеволюційним100% сценарій сценарієм Gas Електроенергія з ВДЕ 119 25%101 264 375 527 654 769 885 991 4 Influence of EE measures Всього 18%5037 3838 5248 496430% 5020 5181 Heat 5347 5741 6093 2 1% 2012 2015 2020 2025 5%2030 2035 Coal 2040 2045Частка ВДЕ2050 4% 2.9% 4.0% 14.6% 15.3% 17.7% 24.5% Electricity Gas32.4% 41.3% 51.5% 3% motor4 3 vehicles in 2050.15% 39% 20% 30%Heat 26% Вугілля 25 0% 715 303 638 91%578Революційний90%100% 510 сценарій395 176 109Вплив заходів з0 ЕЕ 13% 15% 0 0 739 1576 24%1896 2248 Oil products2415 2313 2190 2 1% Electricity Influence Coal from of EE RES measures Всього 18%5037 3838 5248 4964 5020 5181 Heat Oil products5347 5741 6093 Газ 0 137602012 90832015 103512020 90122025 66090%2030 54502035 40612040 198120453 2 20500 The23 . air5 and water transport13 .7 could20% switch Electricity to biofuel. 0% Share of RES 20% 15% 30% Gas 26% Нафтопродукти20Вугілля 2012 2015 2020 2025 712030715 203514 303 2040226382045 80%2050057890% 0510 0395 1760 1090 0 0 15% 39% 10% Oil products Heat Газ 0 13760 9083 10351 9012 0% 6609 Heat Electricity from 5450RES from RES4061 1981The share0 mln 4%of toe biofuel will make up 82%mln toe in the24% structure of their Теплова енергія 4677 2864 64%3572 3378 3471 2867 2129 1689 2 1 834 Biofuel and wastes Нафтопродукти 71 14 -9122% 0 0 Share0 of RES 0 0 3%0 59% Coal Електроенергія20 2012 2015 2020 2025 31052030-33% 20353012 204026452045 1827205070%80% 1299 1325 1259 1252 403 23.5 13.7 Gas Electricity Теплова енергія 4677 2864 3572 3378 3471 Heat from2867 RES 2129 1689consumption.83420% 10% Біопаливо та відходи 936 1097 43064% -91%319 225 Solar energy137 39 0 0 4% mln toe mln toe Solar Share energy of RES Електроенергія 3105 3012 2645 1827 1299 1325 1259 12521 0 3%403 0% Coal Сонячна15 енергія 0 -33% 0 0 60%0 70% 163 642 1372 2265 3304 To fulfill the59% conditions of the Revolutionary Biofuel andScenario, wastes Біопаливо та відходи 936 1097 430 319 225 Solar energy137 39 0 20120 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 204528% 2050 Теплова енергія з ВДЕ 5 10 399 734 1110 Biofuel 1739and wastes2377 2980 3873 Share Heat of fromRES RES ЕлектроенергіяСонячна енергія з ВДЕ 7% 198 0 47%172 0 512 0 1145 0 1782163 2251642 29901372 37632265it0 is5309 3304 necessary to start using RES (electricity0% and biofuel)Solar energy in 15 18% 11% 12%50%60% ЧасткаТеплова ВДЕ енергія з ВДЕ 4.9% 5 7.7% 10 7.2%399 12.9%734 21.6%1110 Biofuel32.2% 1739and Coal wastes47.1%2377 64.2%2980 91.0%20123873 2015 2%2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20501% Electricity from RES 32% 47% Electricity 1% 3% 28% Heat from RES Вплив Електроенергіязаходів з ЕЕ з7% ВДЕ 0 198 0 17211%1822512 4077114550% 63121782 73232251 84142990 95313763the10344 5309 transport sector (Figure1% 5.13). The total final energy 10Частка ВДЕ 18% 4.9% 10%7.7% 7.2%12%12.9%40% 21.6% 32.2% 47.1% 64.2% 91.0% 2012 2050 Coal Всього 23467 32%16555 18568 16991 15170 Electricity14807 Coal 14403 14039 13723 2% 1% Вплив заходів з ЕЕ 0 0 1822 4077 6312 Heat 7323 Gas 8414 9531consumption103441% 3% by transport sector12% can be reduced Electricity from RES by more 10 22% 40% 33% 43% 9% 2% 1% Всього 23467 10%16555 18568 1699130% 15170 14807 14403 14039 13723 Coal Gas 11.8 Heat Рис. 5.13.than Кінцеве aспоживання half,2012 compared енергетичних ресурсів to the транспортом Conservative за2050 Революційним15% Scenario, сценарієм due to the 11.4 22% Oil products 33%Gas 43% 2% 12% mln toe13% 13% mln toe 30% Oil products 9% Gas Oil products 5 20% increased used of electricity.16% Революційний сценарій 11.4 11.8 Oil products 18 Рис. 5.13. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів транспортом за Революційним15%120% сценарієм 5 8% 7% 13% 20% Gas 37% 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 Influence Oil2035 products Heat of EE measures2040 2045 2050 5% 13% Oil products mln toe mln toe 10% Heat Вугілля 5.0 12 16%4 11 Революційний11 12 сценарій12 10 5 0 8% 7% 54% Gas 16 18 6.1 120% Electricity 5% 10% Coal Газ 37% mln toe 2050 2012 15722015 1250202097% 6702025 2202030 Influence Heat2142035 of EE measures11912040 15222045 20500 0 75% 0% 6% mln toe 20% Heat Electricity Вугілля 5.0 12 4 11 100%11 12 Electricity 12from RES 10 5 0 Coal Нафтопродукти16 8588 6554 78186.1 97%6924 5613 Electricity4426 Biofuel and2684 wastes 1199 3 20120 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 54%0% Share of RES 14 Газ mln toe 2050 1572 1250 670 220 214 1191 1522 0 Електроенергія 46% 750 6%553 mln620 toe 58020%100% 528 Electricity647 from RES687 749 254 201275%2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Share of RES БіопаливоНафтопродукти та відходи 0 8588 346554 9507818 22076924 31695613 Biofuel35214426 Solar and energy wastes36632684 33061199 37873 Electricity Biofuel and wastes Електроенергія14 -29%750 553 620 580 528 Biofuel and647 wastes 687 749 254 2012 2050 Електроенергія12 з ВДЕ 48 32 12028%-56% 36380% 724 1098 1632 2251 3346 Біопаливо та відходи 46% 0 34 950 2207 3169 Solar3521 Heat energy from 3663RES 3306 3787 Частка ВДЕ 0% -29% 1% 62%10% 24% 38% Biofuel47% and wastes54% 62% 97% 1% 3% 6% Електроенергія12 з ВДЕ 48 32 120-56% 36380%1% 724 1098 1632 2251 3346 3% Coal Biofuel and wastesВплив10 заходів з ЕЕ 0 0 28%62%196 1220 2573 Electricity3975 Electricity5123 from RES 6914 9319 Рис. 5.14. Кінцевого2012 споживання1% 3% енергетичних ресурсів сферою2050 послуг за6% Ліберальним сценарієм Частка ВДЕ 0% 1% 10% 24% 38% Heat47% from RES 54% 62% 97% Coal Всього 11448 54%8749 10768 1075660% 10266 9918 9868 9032 7390 3% Gas Вплив10 заходів з ЕЕ 0 0 196 12201% 2573 Electricity3975 5123 6914 9319 4% 47% Electricity29% from RES 56% 9 60% 8 Всього 2012 11448 54%8749 10768 1075660% 10266 9918 9868 9032 7390 Рис. 5.14. Кінцевого споживання4% енергетичних ресурсів сферою послуг за ЛіберальнимЛіберальний сценарій сценарієм Gas 2050 Oil products 13% 52% Oil Share products of RES 47% 29% 56% 13% 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Рис.82050 5.16. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних38% ресурсів сільським господарством за Ліберальним сценарієм Вугілля8 161 67 164 110 67 100 Oil products70 672 74 2012 2050 Ліберальний40% сценарій Oil products 9 39% 60%50% Heat Electricity from RES 38% Газ 463 195 556 Ліберальний50324% сценарій445 432 527 656Рис. 5.16.6 7164 Кінцеве споживання24% енергетичних ресурсів2012 сільським2015 господарством2020 2025 за40% Ліберальним90%2030 Gas сценарієм2035 2040 2045 2050 Нафтопродукти7 78 39%92 41%63 52%48 21 Share20 Heat of RES21 22 Вугілля23 14 9 12 79%13 15 13 11 9 1 2012 2015 2020 2025-26% 24%2030 2035 Heat from2040 RES 20454 2050 24% Ліберальний сценарій Gas Share of RES ВугілляТеплова8 енергія23.5 1612326 671555 131642163.7 1102120 221767 2014100Electricity168970 133772 Газ4 91574 2012 153 2015 129 2020 104 2025-5115%90%2030 126 2035 126 2040 119 2045 105 2050 36 Електроенергія20% 1861 1777 153613.71423 1379 1346 1310 1281 41226 20% 80% Газ 6 20% 23.5 463 -30195% mln556 toe 503 50%40%445 432 Electricity Electricity 527from RES 656ВугілляНафтопродукти7163 141364 91302 121194 79%131345 151481 131412 111245 91027 1 62 Біопаливо та відходиmln toe 27 4632% 311 152 66 82Solar energy78 78 79 10% Coal Share Electricity of RES from RES Нафтопродукти7 mln toe 59% 78 92 41%63mln toe48 21 Biofuel20 and 21wastes 222Газ Теплова23 енергія 153 312 129 211 104 255 -5115% 27820%126 299 126 301 119 296 105 302 36 324 Сонячна енергія 0 0 0 0 0 109Heat Biofuel from and 400RES wastes988 1683 10% 80% 70% Coal Теплова енергія 59% 2326 1555 2163 -212026% 2217 2014 Biofuel and1689 wastes 1337НафтопродуктиЕлектроенергія0%32 915 1% 1364 312 -130213%273 1194 242 1345 249 1481 248 1412 246 1245 239 1027 231 62 243 Теплова5 енергія з ВДЕ 2 5 191 233 298 425 483 422 387 Electricity Heat fromfrom RESRES Електроенергія 1861 -3025%%1777 1536 1423 1379 1346 Solar energy1310 1281ТепловаБіопаливо1226 енергія3 0% та відходи1% 312 20 211 19 255 19 278 21 299 23 301 248 296 529 302 861 3242127 Електроенергія6 з ВДЕ 119 101 264 375 40%30%527 654Solar Solar energy energy769 8850 991 0% 70% Share of RES БіопаливоЧастка та ВДЕ відходи 272.9% 464.0%32% 14.6%311 15.3%152 17.7%66 24.5%82 Electricity32.4%78 41.3%78ЕлектроенергіяСонячна51.5%0 79 енергія 312 -130 %273 0 242 0 249 0%0 24860% 0 246 0 239 0 231 0 243 0 4 28% 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 205040% Share Heat fromof RES RES СонячнаВплив енергія заходів з ЕЕ 0 0 0 0 7390 28%15760 18960 2248109Heat from2415 400RES 2313988БіопаливоТеплова321901683 та енергіявідходи з ВДЕ 20 0 19 1 19 23 21 31 23 40 248 Biofuel63 529 and 85wastes861 95 2127 137 Теплова5 енергія з ВДЕ 2 5 191 233 298 425 Biofuel Heat fromand483 wastes RES 422 3872012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Всього 18%503725% 3838 5248 4964 5020 5181 Heat 5347 5741СонячнаЕлектроенергія6093 енергія2 з ВДЕ 0 20 0 16 40%0 42 0 6660% 50%0 95 0 119 0 140 0 160 0 196 Електроенергія3 з ВДЕ 119 101 264 375 30%20%527 654Electricity30% from769 RES 885ТепловаЧастка 26%енергія991 ВДЕ з ВДЕ 0 2% 1 2% 23 4% 31 6% 40 7% Biofuel63 17% Electricity and 85wastes28% 95 40% 137 79% Частка ВДЕ 15% 15% 2.9% 4.0% 14.6% 15.3% 17.7% 24.5% Electricity Electricity32.4% from RES41.3% 51.5% 4 Oil products ЕлектроенергіяВплив2 заходів з ВДЕ з ЕЕ 20 0 16 0 42 356 66 363 95 368 119 371 140 395 160 395 196 166 Вплив заходів з ЕЕ2012 0 0 2050739 1576 1896 2248 2415 2313 2190 4% 50% 40% 2 2012 ЧасткаВсього ВДЕ2 2%2195 2%1960 4%1889 6%4%2117 7%2326 17% Electricity2528 Heat 28%2664 40%2791 79%3125 Всього 18%5037 3838 524820504964 5020 5181 Heat Gas 5347 5741 6093 28% Coal 10% Вплив заходів з ЕЕ 0 0 356 363 368 371 13% Coal395 395 166 5% 3 20% 30% 26% 40% Рис. 5.13. Кінцеве споживання4%15% енергетичних15% ресурсів транспортом за Революційним сценарієм Всього2 2195 1960 1889 2117 232630% 2528 Heat 2664 2791 3125 Рис.Figure 5.13. 1Кінцеве 3%5.11 споживання Final енергетичних energy ресурсів consumption транспортом за Революційним by households сценарієм Oil Coal products under 7% 17%28% Oil products 1 7%18% 13% Gas 5% 2 18% 30% Gas 0 Революційний0% сценарій Gas Share of RES 17% 20% Oil products Gas 18 the Revolutionary Scenario 120%Революційний10% сценарій 1 18 4% 2012 2015 2020 2025 120% 2030 Influence2035 of EE measures2040 2045 2050 1 2012 2015 2020 2025 20302012 203520152040 20202045 20502025 2030 Influence2035 of EE measures2040 2045 1 2050 7% Units: mln3% toe. Coal 6% 20% Gas Coal ВугілляВугілля 12 12 4 4 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 1010 5 5 0 0 2% 4% 10% Oil Oil products products 16 16 97% 2% 7% 45%45% Газ Газ 2% 20502050 15721572 1250125097%6701%670 220220 214Share214 of RES11911191 152215221 0 0 11.114 .4 9.93.3 0 1% 3% 100% 0% Electricity from RES 4% 6% 10% Coal Share of RES НафтопродуктиНафтопродукти 85888588 655465541% 78187818 69246924100% 56135613 Electricity44264426 from2684 RES2684 11991199 0 3 3 2% 0% 14 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal 2% mln toemln toe mlnmln toe toe 51%51% Heat Heat ЕлектроенергіяЕлектроенергія5.1.314 Transport 750 750 553 553 620 620 580580 528528 647647 687687 749749 2542542012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0 0% Share of RES БіопаливоБіопаливо та відходи та відходи 9% 2% 0 0 34 34 95012%950 22072207 31693169 35213521 36633663 33063306 37873787 -29%-29% Biofuel Biofuel and Gas and wastes wastes 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Електроенергія12Електроенергія12 з ВДЕ з ВДЕ 2% 3% 48 48 32 32 120-56120% 1%36380%36380% 724724 10981098 16321632 22512251 33463346 Final energy1% consumption by62% the - transport56% 15% sector is falling Electricity Electricity Частка ВДЕ 0% 1% 62%10% 24% 38% 47% Oil products54% 62% 97% 75%1%75% 1% Частка ВДЕ 0% 16%1% 10% 24% 38% Coal47% 54% 62% 97% 1% 1% 2% Coal Вплив10 заходівВпливafter10 заходів з ЕЕ з ЕЕ 2015 but2% could0 0 grow0 0 12%196 quite196 1220 1220 intensively25732573 Electricity Electricity39753975 to51235123 2035 under 69146914 93199319 37% 9% 54%54% Heat 1% 1% 1% Biofuel and wastes ВсьогоВсього 1144811448 87498749 1076810768 1075660%1075660% 1026610266 9918 9918Gas 98689868 90329032 739073901% 7% 2% Coal Biofuel Gas and wastes the conditions5.0 of the47% 47% Liberal 6 Scenario..1 15% This 29%is29% explained by 56%56% 6% 8 8 Electricity 14% 2012 5% 205010% mln toe mln toe Oil Oilproducts products Oil products 2012 2050 Gas Oil products the forecasted increase38% 38% in household16%6% incomes20% and associated 7% 6% Biofuel and wastes Рис. 5.15.14% Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів 5%сферою послуг10% за Революційним сценарієм 6 37%6 40%40% Heat Рис. 5.15. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів сферою послуг за Революційним8% сценарієм Oil products Heat growth of the24% number24%46% of motor vehicles. However, Gas Gas the energy Figure 5.13 Final energy consumption by transport under the 5.0 6.1 Solar energy 914% 100% Heat Electricity 4 4 Electricity 9 100%8% Influence of EE measures consumptionmln toe in the transport28%mln toe sector will not exceed the 2.2 3.188%Революційний сценарій Influence of EE measures 6% 20%20%20% Heat from RES Revolutionary Scenario 88%Революційний сценарій 10% 10% Coal Biofuel and wastes 14%8 mln toe 2012 2015 mln2020 toe 202590% 2030 Electricity2035 Biofuel and 2040wastes 2045 2050 indicators2 of 2012 by 2050 due to the use 1%of moreCoal efficient Вугілля 2.2 2012 161 2015 67 3.20201164 202590%130 203067 Electricity2035100 from2040 RES79 204572 205074 2 Electricity from RES 8 Units: mln toe. Electricity from RES 0% 0% 1% 46% Solar energy Вугілля Газ mln toe 161 463 67 195 mln16471% toe542 13048880% 67388 Biofuel100 Solar295 and energy wastes26779 23372 18474 motor1% vehicles. Though the share of RES will increase 7 62% Heat from RES 0 0% Газ Нафтопродукти 463 78 195 9271%542 60 48880%28 388 0 295 0 2672 2330 1840 0 28% 0% Share of RES 7 -29% Heat Solar from Heat energy RES from RES 2012 2050 Share of HeatRES from RESНафтопродуктиТеплова енергія 782326 9263%1555 602117 28189270% 17040 12310 8072 5080 1830 2012 20122015 20152020 2020202520252030203020352035204020402045204520502050 62% -29% Solar energy 94 It should be noted that electricity generation by the solar panels in private households which are connected to the generalТеплова electricityЕлектроенергія енергія6 grid is included in the transformation2326 sector.1861 Thus,63%1555 figures1777 on2117 the68%1513 final energy1892128670% consumption17041011 show1231 only967 solar energy,807849 508802 247183 Рис. 5.16. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів сільським господарством1% за Ліберальним сценарієм Біопаливо та відходи 27 46 311 218 313 Solar Heat energy Electricityfrom440 RES from391 RES 180 80 which is directly consumed by households (mainly, for hot water by solar collectors),Ліберальний as well as сценарій electricity Electricity generation from byЕлектроенергія autonomousRES 6 households. 1861 52%1777 1513 1286 60% 1011 967 849 802 247 Сонячна енергія 0 0 68% 0 0 0 Biofuel 14and wastes118 525 1012 4 2012 2015 2020 2025 90%2030 2035 2040 Біопаливо2045 та 52050відходи 27 46 311 218 313 Electricity440 from RES391 180 80 Теплова енергія з ВДЕ 52% 2 5 236 60%411 545 747 901 897 850 Вугілля 14 9 12 4%79%13 15 13 11 Сонячна9 енергія1 0 0 0 0 50% 0 Biofuel 14and wastes118 525 1012 4% Share Coal of RES 5 Електроенергія з ВДЕ 11 9 101 293 806 1387 1642 2018 2410 3252 Газ 2012 153 129 2050104 -5115% 126 Coal126 119 Теплова105 енергія36 з ВДЕ 2012 41%2 - 27% 5 2362050 411 545 Electricity747 90141 897 850 80% Частка4 ВДЕ 2.9% 4.0% 16.0% 27.3%50% 41.5% 52.3% 63.1% 71.3% 88.3% Рис. Нафтопродукти5.16. 3Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів1364 сільським1302 господарством1194 1345 за Ліберальним1481 1412 сценарієм1245 Електроенергія1027 62з ВДЕ 41% 11 9 101 293 806 40% 1387 Electricity1642 2018 2410 3252 7% Electricity from RES 4 Вплив заходів з2012 ЕЕ - 27% 0 02050750 1283 1501 1993 2329 2429 2400 Теплова енергія 18% 312 211 255 Ліберальний278 сценарій299 301 296 Частка302 ВДЕ 324 27% 2.9% 4.0% 16.0% 27.3% 41.5% Heat52.3% 63.1% 71.3% 88.3% 7% -13% 70% Gas Всього3 5037 3838 5236 525840% 5415 5436 5433 5625 5883 Електроенергія4 18% 2012312 2015273 2020242 2025249 90%2030248 2035 Gas246 2040239 Вплив2045231 заходів2050 243з ЕЕ 0 0 750 1283 30% 1501 Heat1993 2329 2429 2400 79% Heat from RES 27% Oil products27% 29% ВугілляБіопаливо3 та відходи 14 20 9 19 1219 1321 1523 248Share13 of RES52911 Всього86139 21271 5037 3838 5236 5258 5415 5436 5433 5625 5883 Газ Сонячна енергія 153 0 129 0 104 0 -5115% 0 60%1260 1260 1190 1050 2 360 16% 30% 40% 80% Oil products 20% Oil products27% 29% НафтопродуктиТеплова3 енергія з ВДЕ 1364 0 1302 1 119423 134531 148140 1412 Biofuel63 and1245 85wastes 102795 13762 Gas 45% OilElectricity products from RES 2 Електроенергія2 з ВДЕ 20 45% 16 42 66 95 119 140 160 196 3% 16% 20% Теплова енергія 11.4 312 211 255 9.3278 50%299 301 296 302 1 324 4% 10% Частка ВДЕ 11.4 2%-13% 2% 9.4%3 6% 70% 7% 17% Electricity28% 40% 79% Gas Coal Електроенергія mln toe 312 273 242mln toe249 51%248 246 Heat 239 231 243 Вплив3 заходів з ЕЕ 0 0 356 363 368 371Heat from RES395 3951 3%166 Біопаливо та відходи mln toe 20 19 mln19 toe 21 51%40%23 248Heat 529 861 02127 4% 10%0% СонячнаВсього енергія2 21950 19600 28% 18890 21170 60%23260 2528 Heat0 26640 27910 31250 Coal Share of RES 40% 13%Biofuel and wastes 5% 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Теплова енергія з ВДЕ 0 1 23 31 40 63 Electricity85 950 137 0% 2 30% Oil products Share of RES Електроенергія з ВДЕ 75% 20 17%16 42 66 50%95 119Electricity 140 160 2012196 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 1 75% Electricity Частка ВДЕ 2% 2% 4% 6% 7% 17% 28% 40% 79% 1% 2% 3% 1% 3% Вплив заходів з ЕЕ 0 0 356 363 20%368 371 Gas 395 395 166 3% 40% Biofuel and wastes Coal Всього2 2195 1960 1889 2117 2326 2528 Heat 2664 2791 3125 4% 1 7% 28% Biofuel and wastes 2% 3% 1% 3% 6% 10% 13% Coal 5% 1% 3% 2% 2%20124% 2050 9% Coal Gas 2%2012 17% 2050 30% Oil products 4% Рис. 5.15.1 Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів сферою послуг за Революційним сценарієм 0 0% Share of RES 2% Oil products Рис. 5.15. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів сферою послуг за Революційним сценарієм 9% Gas 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 20% Gas 9 100% 37% 17% Heat 7% Influence of EE measures Oil products 9 1 88%Революційний100% сценарій 5.0 5.9 4% 6% 10% Influence Coal of EE measures 8 2% 2% 2012 2015 202088%Революційний202590% сценарій2030 2035 2040 2045 37%2050 mln toe 55% mln toe Electricity Вугілля 1% 161 67 1641% 130 67 Electricity100 from RES79 72 74 17% Heat 8 1% 1% 2012 2015 2020 20252%90% 2030 2035 Coal 2040 2045 2050 Газ 0 463 195 71%542 48880%0% 388 Electricity Share295 from of RES RES 267 233 184 5.0 46% 5.9 Biofuel and wastes Вугілля 7 161 67 164 130 67 Heat100 from RES 79 72 74 55% Electricity Газ Нафтопродукти2012 2015 2020 2025 4632030 782035195 92204071%542204560 2050488 28 388 0 295 Gas 0 267 2 233 0 184 0 mln toe mln toe 15% 7% 63% 6% -29%80% Solar energy Нафтопродукти7Теплова енергія 782326 921555 602117 28189270% 17040 Heat from12310 RES 8072 5080 1830 14% 5% -29% 10% Solar energy Biofuel and wastes ТепловаЕлектроенергія енергія6 23261861 63%15551777 21171513 18921286 17041011 1231 Oil967 products807849 508802 183247 46% Біопаливо та відходи 27 46 311 70%218 313 440 391 180 80 15% Heat from RES Електроенергія6 1861 52%1777 1513 1286 60% 1011 Solar energy967 849 802 247 Сонячна енергія 1% 1% 0 0 1%0 08% 0 Biofuel Heat 14and wastes118 525 1012 Solar energy Біопаливо та5 відходи1% 27 46 311 2%218 313 440 Coal 391 180 80 Теплова енергія з ВДЕ 52% 2 5 236 60%411 545 747 901 897 850 Electricity from RES Сонячна енергія 0 0 0 0 50% 0 Biofuel 14and wastes118 525 1012 2012 2050 5Електроенергія14% з ВДЕ 11 9 101 293 806 1387 Electricity Gas Electricity1642 2018 2410 3252 Heat from RES Теплова енергія з ВДЕ 2.2 41%2 - 27% 5 2363.1 411 545 747 901 897 850 Частка4 ВДЕ 7% 2.9% 4.0% 6%16.0% 27.3%50% 41.5% 52.3% 63.1% 71.3% 88.3% Електроенергія з14% ВДЕ mln toe 11 9 101 5% 293mln toe10%806 40% 1387 Electricity1642 Biofuel and2018 wastes 2410 3252 Вплив заходів з ЕЕ 41% - 27%0 0 750 1283 1501 Heat Oil1993 products 2329 2429Рис. 5.17. Кінцеве2400 споживання енергетичних ресурсів сільським господарством за Революційним Electricity сценарієм from RES Частка4 ВДЕ 27% 2.9% 4.0% 16.0% 27.3% 41.5% 52.3% 63.1% 71.3% 88.3% 2012 2050Революційний сценарій Всього3 5037 3838 5236 40%5258 5415 5436 5433 5625 5883 Вплив заходів з ЕЕ 0 0 750 1283 30% 1501 1993 Solar energy2329 2429 4 2400 2012 2015 202 0 2025120% 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 27%62% 8% Heat Oil productsHeat27% 29% 96% Influence of EE measures Всього3 5037 3838 5236 5258 5415 5436 5433 5625Вугілля 5883 14 9 13 7 4 2 1 1 0 2 30% Heat from RES Рис. 5.17. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів сільським господарством-5% за Революційним сценарієм 14% 16% 20% 27% Electricity Газ 29% 153 129 128 125 120 104 77 51 0 68% Oil Gasproducts 3 Революційний сценарій 2.2 3.1 4 Нафтопродукти 1364 1302 1286 120%1146100% 974 Electricity771 from RES536 285 0 2 3% 16% Electricity from RES 2012 -4% 2015 202 0 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 1 mln4% toe mln toe 20%10% Biofuel and wastes Теплова енергія 312 211 96%272 274 275 Influence 247of EE measures202 163 84 Gas Coal Вугілля 14 9 13-5% 7 4 2 1 1 0 Електроенергія 312 273 80% 251 203 152 Heat from144 RES 123 109 33 1 3% Газ 3 153 129 128 125 120 104 77 51 0 0 4% 10%0% Solar energy 3 Біопаливо та відходи 20 19 112 404 739 1119 1491 1845 2232 2012 62% 2050 Coal Share of RES Нафтопродукти 1364 130268% 1286 1146100%80% 974 Electricity771 from RES536 285 0 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Сонячна енергія -4% 0 0 0 0 0Біопаливо0 та відходи0 0 0 0 0% Heat from RES Теплова енергія 312 211 272 274 275 247 202 163 84 Share of RES Теплова2 енергія з ВДЕ 0 80%1 30 59 88Heat from150 RES 226 288 388 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 204568%2050 Електроенергія3 312 54% 273 251 203 152 144 123 109 33 Electricity from RES Електроенергія з ВДЕ 20 16 49 61270% 208 Electricity245 293 327 439 1% 2% 3% 1% 3% 3% БіопаливоЧастка та відходи ВДЕ 20 2% 68%19 2% 112 9% 80%40425% 73940% 111954% 149168% 184580% 223296% Coal Сонячна енергія2 0 0 0 0 0Біопаливо0 та відходи0 0 0 4% Вплив заходів з ЕЕ 40% 0 0 105 135 132 Heat 117 109 118 115 1% 2% 3% 1% 3% 3% Теплова2 Всьогоенергія з ВДЕ 0 2195 11960 302140 592346 882562 1502782 2950226 3068288 3176388 2012 9% 2% 54% 40% 2050 4% Coal Gas Електроенергія з ВДЕ 20 16 49 127 208 Electricity2454% 293 327 4394% 1 25% 60% Oil products 2% Частка ВДЕ 2% 2% 9% 25% 40% 54% 68% 80% 96% 9% Gas Oil products 2 Вплив заходів з ЕЕ 40% 0 0 105 135 132 Heat 117 109 118 115 20% Gas 37% 17% Heat Всього 1 2195 1960 2140 2346 2562 2782 2950 3068 3176 Oil products 2% 9% 40% 5.0 5.9 25% 4% 4% 1 2% Oil Coal products 37% 55% 17% Heat Electricity mln toe mln toe 0 0% 5.0 5.9 Biofuel and wastes 20% Gas 46% 55% Electricity 1 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Share of RES mln toe mln toe 15% 2% 9% Solar energy 46% Biofuel and wastes 2% Coal 15% 0 0% Heat from RES 1% 1% 1% 3% Coal Solar energy 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 1% Share of RES Electricity from RES 2012 2050 Heat from RES 7% Gas 14% 14% Electricity from RES Oil products Рис. 5.17. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів сільським господарством за Революційним сценарієм 1% 1% 1% 2012 2050 3% 1% Coal Революційний сценарій 12% Heat 4 2012 2015 202 0 2025120% 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 96% Influence of EE measures 14% Gas Рис. 5.17.Вугілля Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів14 сільським9 господарством13 7 за Революційним4 сценарієм2 1 1 0 7%2.2 3.2 Electricity -5Революційний% сценарій 14% 14% Газ 153 129 128 125 120 104 77 51 0 mln toe 4 3 2012 2015 202 0 2025120% 2030 Electricity2035 from 2040RES 2045 2050 mln toe Oil products Нафтопродукти 1364 1302 96%1286 1146100% 974Influence of771 EE measures536 285 0 Biofuel and wastes Вугілля 14 -4% 9 13 7 4 2 1 1 0 Теплова енергія 312 211 -5272% 274 275 247 202 163 84 Heat Газ 153 129 80%128 125 120 104 77 51 0 12% 3 Електроенергія 312 273 251 203 152 Heat from144 RES 123 109 33 62% 70% Solar energy 3 100% Electricity from RES 14% НафтопродуктиБіопаливо та відходи 1364 20 1302 19 1286 112 1146404 974739 7711119 5361491 2851845 22320 2.2 3.2 Electricity -4% 68% 80% Heat from RES ТепловаСонячна енергія енергія 312 0 211 0 272 0 274 0 275 0Біопаливо247 0 та відходи202 0 163 0 84 0 mln toe Електроенергія 312 273 80% 251 203 152 Heat from144 RES 123 109 33 mln toe 3 Теплова2 енергія з ВДЕ 0 1 30 59 88 150 226 288 388 Biofuel Electricity and fromwastes RES Біопаливо та відходи 20 54% 19 112 404 739 1119 1491 1845 2232 Електроенергія з ВДЕ 2068% 16 49 80%61270% 208 Electricity245 293 327 439 2012 2050 СонячнаЧастка енергія ВДЕ 0 2% 0 2% 0 9% 025% 040%Біопаливо054% та відходи68%0 80%0 96%0 62% 70% Solar energy Теплова2 Вплив енергія2 заходів з ВДЕ з ЕЕ 40% 0 0 1 0 30 105 59135 88132 150117 226109 288118 388115 54% Heat ЕлектроенергіяВсього з ВДЕ 202195 161960 492140 1272346 2082562 Electricity2452782 2932950 3273068 4393176 Heat from RES 60%40% Частка ВДЕ 25% 2% 2% 9% 25% 40% 54%4% 68% 80% 96%4% 2 1 Oil products Electricity from RES Вплив заходів з ЕЕ 40% 0 0 105 135 132 Heat 117 109 118 115 Всього 2195 1960 2140 2346 2562 2782 2950 3068 3176 2012 2050 40%20% Gas 1 25% 4% 4% 1 2% 9% Oil products 2% Coal 0 20%0% Gas 1 9% 2% 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Share of RES 2% Coal 0 0% 2012 2015 20201% 1%20251% 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Share of RES 3% 1% Coal

7% Gas 1%14%1% 1% 14% 3% 1% Coal Oil products

Gas Heat 7% 12%14% 14%14% 2.2 3.2 Oil Electricityproducts mln toe mln toe 12% Heat Biofuel and wastes 14% 2.2 62% 3.2 70% Electricity Solar energy mln toe mln toe Biofuel Heat andfrom wastes RES 201262% 205070% Solar Electricity energy from RES Heat from RES 2012 2050 Electricity from RES Рис. 5.9. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів промисловістю за Революційним сценарієм 35 100% 88% Революційний сценарій Influence of EE measures 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal 8310 5569 5444 557590% 5439 Electricity4910 from RES3739 2603 547 Gas30 5272 2762 2146 2059 1830 1552 1152 776 276 Oil products 1246 814 1055 89180% 774 Heat from676 RES 909 223 0 Heat 4538 2870 3084-43% 2815 2538 2090 1516 1106 503 25 61% Electricity 5102-27% 4065 4921 448470% 3320 Solar energy3374 3116 3038 983 Biofuel and wastes 46 86 88 170 278 478 680 889 1235 Solar energy 0 0 0 60%0 0 0 0 0 0 20 Biofuel and wastes Heat from RES 5 48%10 344 611 812 1268 1693 1953 2335 Electricity from RES 325 232 952 281150% 4554 Electricity5728 7401 9132 12946 Total 2484437% 16408 18034 19415 19544 20077 20206 19720 18825 15 Share of RES 1.5% 2.0% 7.7% 18.5%40% 28.9% Heat37.2% 48.4% 60.7% 87.7% Influence of EE measures 29% 0 0 178 2382 4995 7607 9676 11812 13931 30% 27% 43% 10 19% Oil products 20% Gas 5 8% 10% 2% 2% Coal 0 0% Share of RES 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

3% 1% 1% 3% Coal Gas 5% 21% Oil products 34% 7% Heat

24.8 18.8 12% Electricity 18% mln toe mln toe Biofuel and wastes

69% Solar energy 21% 5% Heat from RES

Electricity from RES 2012 2050 Рис. 5.11. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів населенням за Революційним сценарієм

25 91% Революційний100% сценарій Influence of EE measures Рис. 5.8. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних2012 ресурсів2015 промисловістю2020 за Ліберальним2025 2030 сценарієм2035 2040 2045 2050 Вугілля 715 303 638 57890% 510 395 176 109 0 Газ 35 13760 9083 10351 9012Ліберальний18% 660920% сценарій Electricity5450 from RES4061 1981 0 Нафтопродукти20 712012 201514 202022 17% 202580%0 20300 2035 0Influence2040 of0 EE measures2045 0 2050 0 Coal 8310 5569 5445 6670 737118% Heat from8307 RES 9170 9934 10558 Теплова енергія 4677 2864 64%16%3572-91% 3378 3471 2867 2129 1689 834 Gas 30 5272 2762 2151 2381-21% 2371 2417 Electricity2432 from RES2474 2467 Рис. 5.8. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів промисловістю за Ліберальним сценарієм Електроенергія 3105-33% 301213% 2645 182770% 1299 1325 1259 1252 403 Біопаливо Oil products та відходи 9361246 1097814 4301058 1132319 114222516% Solar energy1176137 118239 1352 0 1322 0 Сонячна Heat енергія 45380 -182870%0 31680 31680 3027163 2845642 Heat from25711372 RES 24412265 21393304 35 Ліберальний18% 20% сценарій 15 Electricity25 5102 4065 4982 506560% 4618 4786 4849 4696 4514 Теплова енергія з ВДЕ 5 10 399 734 111014% Biofuel 1739and wastes2377 2980 3873 2012 2015 202017% 2025 2030 2035 Influence2040 of EE measures2045 BiofuelРис. 2050and 5.8. wastes Кінцеве споживання енергетичних46 ресурсів47% промисловістю86 52 за Ліберальним73 94сценарієм123 Solar energy153 184 211 Coal 8310 5569 16%5445 6670 737118% 8307 9170 Електроенергія9934 Solar energy10558 з ВДЕ 19811%0 172 0 5120 114550%0 17820 22510 29900 37630 53090 Gas 30 5272 2762 2151 2381-21% 2371 2417 2432 Частка2474 ВДЕ 2467 4.9% 7.7% 7.2% 12.9% 21.6%12% 32.2% 47.1% 64.2% 91.0% Electricity from RES Heat 20from 35RES 32%5 10 280 348Ліберальний40720% сценарійElectricity600 Biofuel and736 wastes 771 905 Oil products 1246 13%814 1058 1132 1142 1176 1182 Вплив1352 заходів1322 з ЕЕ 0 0 1822 4077 18% 6312 7323 8414 9531 10344 16% 10 Electricity from RES 3252012 2322015 8562020 1335420250% 17662030 23252035 28482040 20453246 20503651 Рис. 5.8. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів промисловістю за Ліберальним сценарієм Всього 23467 16555 18568 17%16991 1517010% 14807 Influence14403 of EE measures14039 13723 Heat 4538 -182870% 3168 3168 3027 2845 Heat from2571 RES 2441 Total Coal2139 9% 248448310 164085569 179925445 201726670 20794737118% 225788307 Electricity239419170 251009934 1055825766 Electricity25 5102 4065 4982 5065 4618 4786 4849 4696 Share of4514 RES 1.5% 2.0% 16%6.6% 8.7% 10.9% Heat 13.5% 15.6% 16.7% 18.5% 14% 15 Gas 30 22% 5272 2762 2151 2381-21% 2371 33%2417 Electricity2432 from RES2474 246743% Biofuel and35 wastes 46 86 52 73 20%94 123 153 184 211 13% 30% Ліберальний18% сценарій Solar energy Influence Oil products of EE measures 7% 12460 0814 2201058 16251132 374511428%16% 51061176 Heat 59421182 13526432 13226990 Solar energy 20120 20150 20200 20250 20300 20350 20400 20450 20500 Oil products 11% 17% Influence of EE measures Heat 4538 2870 3168 3168 3027 18%2845 Heat from2571 RES 2441 213921% Heat Coal from RES 83105 556910 2805445 6670348 737140712%18% 8307600 9170736 9934771 10558905 13% -18% 20 16% Biofuel and wastes 5 Electricity25 5102 4065 4982 20%5065 46186% 4786 Oil products4849 4696 4514 Gas 30 5272 2762 2151 2381-21% 2371 2417 2432 2474 102467 14% Electricity from RES 325 13%232 856 1335 1766 2325 Electricity2848 from RES3246 Biofuel3651 and wastes 46 86 52 73 Gas94 123 Solar energy153 184 211 Total Oil products 248441246 16408814 179921058 201721132 20794114210% 225781176 239411182 251001352 257661322 8% 7% 9% 16% Electricity Solar5% energy 11%0 0 0 10%0 4%0 0Gas 0 0 0 Share Heat of RES 1.5%4538 2.0%2870 6.6%3168 8.7%3168 10.9%3027 13.5%2845 Heat from15.6%2571 RES 16.7%2441 Heat18.5%2139 from RES 2% 5 10 280 348 40712% 600 736 771 905 15 -18% 5 20 Biofuel and wastes Influence Electricity25 of EE measures 7% 51020 40650 2204982 16255065 374546188%14% 51064786 48495942 46966432 Electricity451469902% from RES 325 232 856 1335 1766 Coal 2325 2848 3246 3651 Biofuel and wastes 46 86 52 73 94 123 Heat 153 1840 211 0% 2%10% Coal 18% Solar energy Total21% 9% 24844 16408 17992 20172 20794 22578 Electricity23941 25100 25766 Solar energy 11%0 0 0 0 6%0 0 0 0 2012 Share0 of2015 RES 2020 2025 2030 20351.5% 20402.0%2045 6.6%2050 8.7% 10.9% Share of13.5% RES 15.6% 16.7% 18.5% Heat10 from RES 5 10 280 348 40712% 600 Oil products736 771 90515 Share of RES 20 Biofuel and wastes Influence0 of EE measures 7% 0 0 220 1625 37450%8% 5106 Heat 5942 6432 6990 Electricity from RES 325 232 856 1335 1766 2325 2848 3246 3651 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 18% 21% Total 2% 24844 16408 17992 20172 207944%10% 22578 Gas 23941 25100 25766 9% Electricity 10 6% Oil products Share5 15 of2% RES 1.5% 2.0% 6.6% 8.7% 10.9% 13.5% 15.6% 16.7% 18.5% Influence of EE measures 0 0 220 1625 37452%8% 5106 Coal 5942 6432 6990 1% 3% 7% Heat 6% 4% Coal 18% 21% 1% 2% 3% Coal Gas 6% Share of RES 5 2% Мільйон тонн нафтового еквіваленту 0 10 0% Oil products 4% 2% Gas Coal 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Gas 4% 13% 2% Gas 0 14% 0% Oil products Share of RES 5 2% 3% Oil products 2% Coal 21% 2012 2015 2020 2025 1%2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 1% Coal 34% 39% Heat Мільйон тонн нафтового еквіваленту 24% Heat 0 0% Share of RES Gas 20% 231%.5 13.7 41% Electricity Coal 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Electricity 14% 24mln.8 toe 25mln toe.8 Мільйон тонн нафтового еквіваленту 3% Oil products 59% 18% Biofuel Gas and wastes 21% 1% mln toe mln toe Biofuel and wastes 1% 34% Coal 18% 14% Solar energy Heat Мільйон тонн нафтового еквіваленту3% Oil products 21% 1% Solar energy 41% Gas 34% 28% Heat from RES Electricity 8% Heat 24.8 14%25.8 21% 5% Heat from RES 3%18% Oil products 5% 10% 41% Electricity from RES 21%mln toe 1% mln toe Biofuel and wastes 24.8 25.8 Electricity 18% 34% Electricity from RES Heat 2012 18% 2050 mln toe mln toe Biofuel and wastes 41% Solar energy 18% Electricity 2012 2050 24.8 8% Рис. 5.13. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів транспортом за Революційним сценарієм Solar energy 21% 25.8 Heat from RES 5% 18% 5% 10% Рис. 5.10. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів населенням за Ліберальним сценарієм mln toe mln toe Biofuel and wastes 21% 8% 18% 18 5% 5% 10%Революційний120% сценарій Heat from RES Electricity from RES 2012 2015 2020 2025Ліберальний2030 сценарій Influence2035 of EE measures2040 2045 2050 Solar energy 25 42% 45% Вугілля 122012 20154 202011 202511 203012 203512 Electricity2040 from10 RES2045 5 2050 0 8% 16 Share of RES 2012 21% 2050 Газ Coal 2050715 1572303 125064697% 670566 220510 418214 1191324 1951522 16 0 5% 5% 10% Heat from RES Gas 2012 13760 9083 1041920509446100% 40%7823 Electricity7722 from RES6794 5707 4934 Рис. 5.10. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів населенням за Ліберальним сценарієм Нафтопродукти Oil products 858871 655414 781810 69240 56130 4426 Electricity0 2684 from0 RES 11990 0 3 Електроенергія14 20 750 553 620 580 528 647 687 749 254 Electricity from RES Heat Рис. 5.10. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних4677 ресурсів2864 населенням358832% за Ліберальним3146 35% сценарієм2687 2056 1480 1224 960 Ліберальний сценарій Біопаливо та відходи 0 34 950 2207-42% 3169 3521 Heat from3663 RES 3306 3787 25 42% 45% Electricity -310529% -36%3012 2690 2349 2124 Biofuel2124 and wastes2117 2119 2108 2012 2012 2015 202020502025 2030 2035 2040 Електроенергія204512 Biofuel 2050and з ВДЕ wastes 48936 109732 120430-56% 36331980%Ліберальний724225 сценарій1098137 163239 22510 33460 Share of RES 25 42% 30%45% Solar energy Coal 715 303 646 566 510 418 324 Частка195 Solar ВДЕ energy16 0% 20120 1%20150 62%10%20200 24%20250 38%20300 203517047% 1091204054% 2045242662% 2050371397% GasРис. 5.10. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних13760 ресурсів9083 населенням10419 за Ліберальним9446 40%сценарієм7823 7722 6794 5707 Heat15 fromCoal4934 RES 5715 10303 317646 346566 361510 433418 Share of RES423324 195387 40616 Electricity from RESВплив10 заходів з ЕЕ 0 0 196 1220 257340% Electricity3975 Biofuel and5123 wastes 6914 9319 Oil products 71 14 10 0 0 0 0 0Electricity Gas from0 RES 19813760 54%172908321% 10419462 6199446 25%7823812 10327722 12446794 57071465 49341705 Heat20 4677 2864 358832% 3146Ліберальний2687 сценарій2056 1480 Всього1224 Total Oil 960products 114484.9% 71 87497.7%14 107686.5%10 107567.6%60%0 102669.6%0 12.6%9918 Electricity0 20.7%9868 from0 RES31.6%90320 42.1%73900 25 42% 35%45% 20 Electricity 31052012 30122015 26902020 2349-202542% 21242030 21242035 Heat from20402117 RES 204521198 Share Heat2050 of2108 RES 47%46770 28640 1827358832% 42783146 694035%2687 8039205629% Electricity93031480 100471224 1022596056% Coal 715-36% 303 646 566 510 418 Share of RES324 195 Electricity16 310513% 3012 2690 2349-42% 20%2124 2124 Heat from2117 RES 2119 2108 Biofuel and wastes 936 1097 430 319 225 137 39 0Influence of0 EE measures 23467 16555-36% 18563 16790 14542 Oil products14091 13513 13523 13842 Solar Gas energy 137600 90830 104190 94460 30%40%78230 7722170 Solar energy67941091 57072426 10 Biofuel49343713 and wastes 38% 936 1097 430 319 225 137 Heat 39 0 0 30% 36% 42% Heat Oil from products RES 571 1014 31710 3460 3610 433 Electricity0 423from0 RES 38706 Solar4060 energy 0 0 0 40%0 15% 0 170 Solar energy1091 2426 3713 15 20 32% Electricity Heat from RES 1984677 172286421% 4623588 3146619 25%35%2687812 10322056 Biofuel and14801244 wastes12241465 Heat170596015 from RES 24% 10% 5 10 317 346 361 Gas 433 Oil products423 387 406 Electricity 3105 3012 2690 2349-42% 2124 2124 Heat from2117 RES 2119 Electricity2108 from RES 198 17221% 462 619 25%812 1032 Biofuel and1244 wastes 1465 1705 Total 4.9% -36%7.7% 6.5% 7.6% 9.6% 12.6% 20.7% 31.6%4 42.1% 8% 8% 10% Share Biofuel of RES and wastes 9360 10970 1827430 4278319 6940225 8039137 Electricity930339 100470 Total5102250 7% 4.9% 7.7% 6.5% 7.6% 9.6% 12.6% Gas 20.7% 31.6% 42.1% Solar energy 013% 0 0 0 20%30% 0 170 Solar energy1091 2426 Share3713 of5% RES 0 0 1827 20%4278 6940 8039 Electricity9303 10047 10225 Influence of EE measures 23467 16555 18563 16790 14542 14091 13513 13523 13842 10% 13% 20% Coal Heat10 15 from RES 5 10 317 346 361 433 Heat 423 3872 Influence406 of EE measures 23467 16555 18563 16790 5%14542 14091 13513 13523 13842 36% Biofuel and wastes 42%10 Coal Heat Electricity from RES 198 17221% 462 619 15%25%812 1032 1244 1465 0%1705 1% 36% 42% Total 4.9% 7.7% 6.5% 7.6% 9.6% 12.6% 20.7% 31.6% 42.1% 15% 10% Oil products Share of RES Share of RES 0 0 1827 4278 6940 8039 Electricity9303 100470 102250 10% 0% 0% Share of OilRES products 8% 8% 13% 10%20% 8% Influence5 10 of EE measures 7% 23467 16555 18563 16790 14542 14091 Gas 13513 13523 201213842 20122015 20152020 20202025 202520308% 20302035 20352040 20402045 20452050 2050 10% 5% 36% Heat 42%5 7% Gas 15% 5% 10% 5% Coal 5% Coal Oil products 4% 1% 3% 8% 8% 10% Coal 5 7% Share of RES 4% 0 5% 0% Gas 0 0% Coal Share of RES 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 5% 2012 2015 2020 2025 20303% 2035 12%2040 2045 2050 Gas Coal 7% 13% 18% Gas Oil products 0 0% Share of RES 1% 4% 1% 3% 4% 3% 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal Coal 36% Heat Oil products Gas 3%45% 12% Gas 1% 3% 3% 12% 2311.5.4 139..38 Electricity 13% 4% Coal 20% 13% Oil products mlnmln toe toe 27% mln toe Oil products 59% 51% Heat Biofuel and wastes Gas 36% 3% 12% 36% Heat Heat Solar energy Рис. 5.9. Кінцеве13% споживання енергетичних ресурсів промисловістю за Революційним сценарієм Oil products 23.5 13.8 7% Electricity Electricity 23.5 13.8 Electricity 75% 35 100%36% 20% mln toe 27% 15%mln toe Heat from RES 20% mln toe 27% mln toe88% Революційний сценарій Influence Heat of EE measures Biofuel and wastes 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 Biofuel2035 and 2040wastes 2045 2050 59% 59% Biofuel Electricity and from wastes RES Coal 23.5 8310 5569 135444.8 557590% 5439 Electricity Electricity4910 from RES3739 2603 547 30 Solar energy Gas 20% mln toe 5272 2762 2146mln toe 2059 1830 Solar1552 energy1152 776 276 20122012 2050 7% 27% 7%80% Oil products 1246 814 1055 891 774 Heat from Biofuel676 RES and wastes909 Рис.223 5.12. Кінцеве0 споживання енергетичних ресурсів транспортом 15%за Ліберальним сценарієм Heat from RES 59% Рис. 5.15. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів сферою послуг за Революційним сценарієм Heat 4538 2870 61%15%3084-43% 2815 2538 Heat2090 from RES1516 1106 503 Electricity25 5102-27% 4065 4921 448470% 3320 3374 3116 3038 983 7% Solar energySolar energy 18 Ліберальний25% сценарій Electricity from RES Biofuel and wastes 46 86 88 170 278 Electricity478 from680 RES 9889 1235 100% 2012 2012 2015 20202050202521% 2030 Influence2035Influence of EE measures20of 40EE measures2045 2050 Solar energy 0 0 15%0 60%0 0 Biofuel Heat and0 from wastes RES 0 Coal0 0 12 4 1188%Революційний11 сценарій12 12 12 12 12 20 2012 2050 Рис.16 5.12. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів транспортом за Ліберальним сценарієм Heat from RES 5 48%10 344 611 812 1268 1693 1953Gas8 2335 20122050 20151572 20201574 2025177890% 20301820 20351984 20152040 11192045 14142050 Рис.Electricity 5.12. fromКінцеве RES споживання енергетичних ресурсів325 транспортом232 952 за Ліберальним2811 сценарієм4554 Electricity5728 from7401 RES 9132 12946 Electricity from RES 50% Electricity ВугілляOil products 1618588 676554 1648295 1308397 894767 9080100 830179 719872 634374 Total 2484437% 16408 18034 19415 19544 20077 20206 19720 1882518 71% Ліберальний20%25% сценарій Electricity from RES 15 2012 2050 Газ Electricity14 463750 195553 542630 48863680% 388645 295783 1084267 1492233 1575184 Share18 of RES 1.5% 2.0% 7.7% 18.5%Ліберальний25%28.9% сценарій 37.2% 48.4% 60.7%7 87.7% 2012 2015 2020 202521% 2030 Heat from2035Influence RES 20of 40EE measures2045 2050 40% Heat НафтопродуктиBiofuel and wastes 78 0 -9%9234 6023915% 28491 4470 4220 6122 7560 1213 0 InfluenceРис. 5.12.of EE Кінцеве measures споживання енергетичних2012 ресурсів0 2015 транспортом0 2020178 за Ліберальним20252382 сценарієм20304995 20357607 20967640 204511812 Coal205013931 12 63% 4 -2911 % -2911% 12 12 12 12 12 29% 21% Influence of EE measuresТепловаElectricity енергія12 from16 RES 2326 48 155532 2117108 189216870% 1704247 1231380 Biofuel and637807 wastes 1031508 1274183 Coal 12 4 11 11 12 1227% 12 12 Gas 1243% 2050 1572 1574 1778 1820 Solar energy1984 2015 1119 1414 1016 30% Oil products ЕлектроенергіяShare6 of RES 18610% 17771% 15133% 12866% 10116% 9676% 10%849 15%802 21%247 Gas 18 19% 2050 1572 1574 1778Ліберальний25%1820 сценарій 1984 2015 1119 Oil1414 products 8588 6554 8295 8397 15%20%8947 9080 Electricity8301 from RES 7198 6343 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Біопаливо2045Influence та2050 відходиof 14EE measures 27 0 46 0 311108 218495 313721 1231440 2331391 4338180 487880 Oil products 8588 6554 8295 839721% 8947 9080Influence of8301 EE measures7198 Electricity106343 52%750 553 630 60%636 645 783 1084 1492 1575 Coal 12 4 11 1120% 20%12 Electricity12 from12 RESСонячна12Total енергія12 114480 -87499%0 108560 114810 121170 Biofuel12661 Electricity14and wastes12660118 11608525 118311012 Electricity14 16 750 553 630 636 645 Gas 783 1084 14925 Biofuel1575 and wastes 0 3410% 23915% 491 447 422 612 756 1213 Gas5 2050 1572 1574 1778 1820 1984 2015 Теплова1119 енергіяElectricity1414 з ВДЕfrom RES 2 48 5 32 236108 411-21689% 545247 7473809% 637901 1031897 127429%850 Biofuel and wastes 8% 0 -9% 34 23915% 491 447 422 612 756 121312 50% Biofuel and wastes Oil products 8588 6554 8295 -28397910%% 8947 9080 8301 Електроенергія7198 Share63438 зof ВДЕ RES 41% 11 9 0% 101 1% 293 3% 8066% 13876% Electricity16426% 201810% 15%2410 21%3252 Electricity12 from2% RES 2% 48 32 108 168 20%247 Coal 380 BiofuelElectricity and from637 wastes RES 10314 1274 - 27% 6% 15% Electricity14 750 553 630 636 645 783 1084 Частка1492 ВДЕInfluence1575 of EE measures 2.9% 0 4.0% 0 16.0%108 27.3%495 41.5%10%721 52.3%1231 Oil products63.1%2331 71.3%4338 487888.3% Share of RES 0% -9%1% 3% 6% 6% 6% 10% 15% 21%10 40% Biofuel0 and wastes 0 34 23915% 4910% 15%447 422 612 Вплив756 заходівTotal12136 з ЕЕ 0 11448 08749 75010856 128311481 150112117 Heat126611993 Electricity126602329 116082429 118312400 Influence of EE measures 0 0 108 495-29% 721 Share1231 of RES 2331 4338 4878 27% 6% 10% Electricity10 122012 from RES2015 2020 2025 2030 203548 204032 20451082050 168 247 380 Biofuel and637 wastesВсього10313 1274 6% 5037 3838 5236 5258 5415 54369% 5433 5625 29%5883 Total 11448 8749 10856 11481 12117 12661 Electricity12660 11608 118318 30% Gas Share of RES 0% 1%10% 3% 6% 15%6% 6% 10% 15% 421% Oil products27% 29% 9% 29% 6% 5%10% Oil products Influence8 10 of EE measures 0 0 1083% 1% 495 721 1231 2331 43382 4878 16% 3% Total 1% 11448 8749 10856 11481 12117 12661 Coal Electricity12660 11608 11831 6 20% 6% 10% 3% 10% Oil products 6% Gas 9% 229% 1% 6% Coal 6 8 Gas 1 3% 0% Gas 6% 6% 4 4% 10% 6% 5% 10% Oil products 3% 5% Coal Oil Gas products 0 0% 4 6 21% 0 0% Share of RES 3% 34%6% 6% 7% 5% 22012 20151%2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Share of Coal RES Heat Gas 2012 20150% 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 4 2 1% 3% 5% Coal 0 0% 0% Electricity Share of RES 24.8 18.8 12% 2012 2%2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 20453% 2050 0 2 The1% number of the private electric vehicles0% can Coal be more 1% 3% 1% 3% 18%0% mln toe mln toe Biofuel Share andof RES wastes than2012 90%2015 in 2050.2020 2025 The2030 remaining2035 2040 vehicles2045 2050 will use biofuel. The 4% Coal 0 69% 0% 7% 11% Solar Share energy of RES 18%9% 12% 2% full electrification2012 2015 2020 2025 is2030 advantageous2035 2040 2045 2050for the bus and railway Gas Coal 5% 21% Heat from RES 7% 10% Oil products transport as well. 18% 11% 12% GasCoal Electricity from RES 37% 17% Heat 7%The air and water transport should completely switch 201218% 11%205012% 11.54.0 10% 115.89 to biofuel.7% The road freight transport11% may completely Coal switch mln toe 13%55% mln toe Electricity OilGas products Рис. 5.11. Кінцеве споживання18% енергетичних ресурсів населенням за Революційним12% сценарієм mln toe mln toe 10% Coal to biofuel taking into account the available technologies in the 11.4 46% 11.8 Biofuel and wastes 25 10% 91% Революційний100% сценарій Gas 13% mln toe 15% HeatOil products Ukrainian market for today. Though the electrification Influence of EE measures of this mln toe 54% 2012 2015 112020.8 2025 2030 2035 Gas 2040 2045 2050 Solar energy Вугілля 11.4 715 303 638 57890% 510 395 176 109 75%0 transport could also take place.13% Oil products ElectricityHeat Газ mln11 toe.4 13760 9083 mln1035111 toe.8 9012 6609 Electricity5450 from RES4061 1981 0 54% Heat from RES 13% Oil products Нафтопродукти20 mln toe 71 14 mln22 toe 80%0 0 0 0 0 0 75% Теплова енергія 4677 2864 3572 3378 3471 Heat from2867 RES 2129 1689 834 Electricity from RES 64% -91% Heat BiofuelElectricity and wastes Електроенергія5.1.4 Service Sector 3105 3012 2645 1827 1299 1325 1259 1252 403 2012 2050 -33% 54%70% Heat 2012 2050 Біопаливо та відходи75% 936 1097 430 54%319 225 Solar energy137 39 0 0 Сонячна енергія 0 0 0 0 163 642 Electricity1372 Рис. 22655.17.Figure Кінцеве3304 споживання 5.15 (part енергетичних 2) Final ресурсів energy сільським consumption господарством за Революційним by service Biofuel сценарієм andsector wastes 15 75% 60% Рис. 5.14. Кінцевого 2012споживання енергетичних ресурсів сферою послуг2050 за Ліберальним сценарієм ТепловаThe енергія final з ВДЕ energy consumption5 10 in the399 service734 sector1110 Biofuel 1739and(commercial Electricity wastes2377 2980 3873 Революційний сценарій 47% 4 under the Revolutionary Scenario 120% Електроенергія з ВДЕ 198 172 512 114550% 1782 2251 2990 3763 5309 2012 2015 202 0 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Частка ВДЕ 4.9% 7.7% 7.2% 12.9% 21.6% 32.2% Biofuel and47.1% wastes 64.2% 91.0% 96% Influence of EE measures and budget sectors) will32% increase under the every Electricity scenario.Вугілля Units:Рис.9 mln5.14. toe. Кінцевого споживання енергетичних14 ресурсів9 сферою13 послуг за 7Ліберальним60% 4 сценарієм2 1 1 0 Вплив заходів з ЕЕ2012 0 0 20501822 4077 6312 7323 Biofuel and8414 wastes 9531 10344 -5% Ліберальний52% сценарій 10 2012 2050 40% Газ 1532012 1292015 1282020 2025125 2030120 2035104 Share of 2040RES77 204551 2050 0 ВсьогоHowever, growth rate23467 will 16555 be negligible18568 16991 under15170 14807 the Liberal14403 14039 3 8 137239 60% Electricity from RES Heat НафтопродуктиВугілля 1364161 130267 1286164 1146100%110Ліберальний97467 сценарій 100771 53670 72285 74 0 Рис. 5.14. Кінцевого споживання енергетичних22% ресурсів сферою послуг за Ліберальним сценарієм33% insulation43% of buildings-4% and the use52% of high-efficient Electricity from RES electric Scenario (Figure 5.14). 30% ТепловаГаз енергія 3124632012 2111952015 2725562020 2745032025 50%2752030445 2035432247 Share of 2040RES527202 2045656163 205071684 Рис. 5.14. Кінцевого споживання енергетичних ресурсів сферою послуг за Ліберальним сценарієм Нафтопродукти8 78 9280% 41%63 48 21 20 21 22 23 Oil products Електроенергія3 Вугілля7 312 161 273 67 251164 203110 15267 Heat from144100 RES 12370 72109 74 33 13% ТепловаequipmentГаз енергія will also play2326 463an important1555195 2163556 role.-212026503% 50%2217445 2014432 Heat Electricity from1689 527 fromRES RES 1337656 716915 59 20% 60% Біопаливо та відходи 20 19 112 80%404 739 1119 1491 1845 2232 9 Ліберальний52% 60% сценарій ЕлектроенергіяНафтопродукти7 1861 78-368%0%177792 153641%63 142348 137921 134620 131021 128122 122623 8% 7% 2012 2015 2020 2025Ліберальний52% 2030 сценарій Gas 2035 Share of 2040RES Сонячна2045Біопаливо енергія62050 та відходиOn the one hand,027 0 district46 3110 heating152-260 % 40%66 0Біопаливо and 82Solar Heat0 та відходи energyfromhot RES780 water78 0 79 0 5% 10% Share of RES Теплова енергія 2326 155532% 2163 2120 2217 2014 1689 1337 915 Вугілля8 1612012 201567 1642020 2025110 203067 2035100 204070 Теплова2045272Сонячна енергіяЕлектроенергія2050 енергія 74з ВДЕ 0 18610 117770 3015360 1423590 1379880 1346109150 1310400226 1281988288 12261683388 8 6 -30% 40% Газ Вугілля 463161 19567 556164 503110 50%44567 Coal 432100 Electricity 527from70 RES 65672ТепловаsupplyБіопаливо5 74716енергія та з відходиВДЕ will use the biomass,54%2 27 546 on191 311 the 233 other152 298 66 hand,425 Biofuel 82Solar to energy and 483 meet78 wastes 422 78 38779 Газ 463 195 556 503 50%445 432 Electricity 527from RESЕлектроенергія656 716 з ВДЕ 20 16 32%49 127 208 Electricity245 293 327 439 Нафтопродукти0 78 92 41%63 480% 21 20 21 22ЕлектроенергіяСонячна23 енергія з ВДЕ 119 025%101 0 264 0 63750% 0 5270 654109 769400 988885 1683991 Нафтопродукти7 78 92 41%63 48 21 20 21 Частка22 ВДЕ 23 2% 2% 9% 25% 30%40% 54% 68% 80% 96% Теплова енергія7 2326 1555 2163 -212026% 2217 2014 Heat from1689 RES 1337ЧасткаtheseТеплова ВДЕ9155 енергія demands, з ВДЕ direct2.9% use2 of4.0% solar5 14.6% 191energy,15.3%233 biofuel17.7%298 24.5% and425 Electricity Biofuel 32.4% wastesand483 wastes41.3%422 51.5%387 Теплова2012 енергія2015 2020 2025 2030 23262035 20401555 204521632050 -212026% 2217 Share2014 of Heat RES from1689 RES Вплив13372 заходів4 915 з ЕЕ 0 25%0 105 135 132 117 109 118 115 Електроенергія 1861 -30%1777 1536 1423 1379 1346 1310 1281ВпливЕлектроенергія заходів1226 з ЕЕ з ВДЕ 40% 0119 0101 739264 1576375 30%1896527 Heat 2248654 2415769 2313885 2190991 Електроенергія6 1861 -30%1777 1536 1423 40%1379 1346 1310 Всього1281 will1226 increase significantly.2195 1960 In 2140 addition,2346 2562 the 2782electric Electricity2950 heating3068 3176 Біопаливо 6та відходи 27 4632% 311 152 40%66 82Solar energyenergy78 78ВсьогоЧастка794 ВДЕ 18%50372.9% 38384.0% 524814.6% 496415.3% 502017.7% 24.5%5181 Heat 32.4%5347 41.3%5741 51.5%6093 Біопаливо та відходи 27 4632% 311 152 66 82 78 78 Вплив79 заходів з ЕЕ 0 0 739 40%1576 1896 2248 2415 2313 2190 СонячнаСонячна енергія енергія 0 0 0 0 00 00 00 109 400400 988988 316831683 20% 30%4% 26%4% Biofuel and wastes 1 technologiesВсього 15% 25%and15% electric18%5037 boilers3838 for5248 hot4964 water5020 Oilwill products5181 be Heat actively5347 5741 6093 ТепловаТеплова5 енергія5 енергія з ВДЕ з ВДЕ 1% 2 2 5 5 191191 233233 298298 425 Biofuel and483483 wastes 422422 387387 Oil products 3% 25% 6% Coal 3 20% 30% 26% ЕлектроенергіяЕлектроенергія з ВДЕ з ВДЕ 119119 25%101101 264264 3753753% 30%527527 654 769769 885885 2 991991 15% 15% 30% Electricity developing. Oil products ЧасткаЧастка ВДЕ ВДЕ 2.9%2.9% 4.0%4.0% 14.6%14.6% 15.3%15.3% 17.7%17.7% 24.5% Electricity32.4% 41.3%41.3% 51.5%51.5% 20% Gas Gas 4 4 Gas 1 2 10% ВпливВплив заходів заходів з ЕЕ з ЕЕ 4% 0 0 0 0 739739 15761576 18961896 2248 24152415 23132313 2%21902190 4%9% Gas ВсьогоВсього 18%503718%5037 38383838 52485248 49644964 50205020 5181 Heat 53475347 57415741 1609360933% 10% Coal 3 13% 20% Oil products 2% 4% Coal 3 15%15%15%15% 20% 30% 5.1.526%26%1 Agriculture3% Coal Oil products 0 0 0% 0% Share of RES 2 2 39% Heat Share of RES 24% Gas 2012 020122015 20152020 20202025 20252030 20302035 20402035 20452040 20502045 2050 0% Share of RES 10% Ukraine has a high agricultural potential, thus the use of 4%4%23.5 13.7 10% Electricity 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 1 1 20%3% 3% mln toe mln toe Coal biofuel and2% wastes in agriculture is also1% significant. The share Biofuel and wastes 1% 3% 1% 59% Share of RES 1% 1%2%1%3% 1% 0 0 0%0% Share of RES of biofuel1% and wastes could1% reach3% almost1% 80% Coal under Coal the 2012201220152015 20202020 20252025 20302030 20352035 20402040 20452045 20502050 Solar energy 2% 12% Coal Liberal Scenario9% (Figure2% 5.16). The12% results of modeling Gas Gas show 28% 7% 9% 15% Gas 2% 1% Heat from RES 14% 14% 1%2% 3% 1% that rapid implementation rates of this15% potential Oil products Oil products will gain 1% 3% 1% 16% Oil products 1% Electricity Coal from RES 16% Coal momentum37% after 2030. This can happen earlier in case Heat of more 2012 2% 12%2050 37% 12% Heat Heat 9%9% 2% 12% Gas 5.0 6.1 15% Gas intensive14% development5.0 of agricultural6. 1technologies for Electricity the use 15% mln2 toe.2 3mln.2 toe Electricity Electricity Рис. 5.13. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів транспортом за Революційним сценарієм Oil products mln toe 6% mln toe 20% 16% Oil products of biodiesel,mln toe bioethanol, biomass6% mlnand toe agricultural20% wastes. Biofuel and wastes 16% Biofuel Biofuel and wastesand wastes 37% Революційний сценарій Heat There is a significant potential in agriculture for the 1837% 120% Heat 46% Solar energy 5.0 2012 2015 20206.1 2025 2030 Influence2035 of EE measures2040 2045 2050 46% Solar energy 5.0 Electricity 62% 70% Solar energy Вугілля mln toe 12 4 611.1 11 12 Electricity12 10 5direct0 use of solar, wind, geothermal28% and bioenergy for the 16 6% mln97% toe 20% 28% HeatHeat fromfrom RES Газ mln toe 2050 6%1572 mln1250 toe 670 220 214Biofuel and1191 wastes 1522 0 100%20% Electricity from RES generation of electricity and heat. 1% At theHeat from RES same time, the Нафтопродукти 8588 6554 7818 6924 5613 4426 Biofuel and2684 wastes 1199 3 1% Electricity from RES 14 46% Electricity from RES Електроенергія 750 553 620 580 528 647Solar energy687 749production254 process itself belongs to the transformation Electricity from sector. RES 46% Solar energy Біопаливо та відходи -290 % 34 28%950 2207 3169 Biofuel3521 and wastes3663 3306 3787 2012 2050 Електроенергія12 з ВДЕ 48 32 120-56% 36380% 724 1098 Heat from 1632RES 2251FEC3346 of2012 this2012 sector inludes only electricity20502050 and heat, which are 28%62% Частка ВДЕ 0% 1% 10% 24% 1% 38% 47% Heat from RES54% 62% 97% Electricity from RES Рис. 5.16.Рис. 5.16.Кінцеве Кінцеве споживання споживання енергетичних енергетичних ресурсів ресурсів сільським сільським господарством господарством за за Ліберальним Ліберальним сценарієм сценарієм Вплив10 заходів з ЕЕ 0 0 196 1220 1% 2573 3975 5123 6914consumed9319 in the centralized way but generatedЛіберальнийЛіберальний сценарій сценарій from RES. Electricity Electricity from RES 54% 4 4 2012 2015 2020 2025 90%2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Всього 11448 8749 10768 1075660% 10266 9918 9868 9032 7390 2012 2015 2020 79%202579% 90%2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 8 2012 47% 2050 29% ВугілляВугілля56% 14 14 9 9 1212 1313 1515 Share 13Share13 ofof RESRES11 99 11 Газ Газ 153153 129129 104104 -5115-%5115% 126126 126126 119 105105 3636 Рис. 5.16. Кінцеве2012 споживання енергетичних ресурсів сільським2050 господарством за Ліберальним Oil products сценарієм 80%80% 38% Нафтопродукти3 1364 1302 1194 1345 1481 1412 1245 1027 62 Ліберальний сценарій Нафтопродукти3 1364 1302 1194 1345 1481 1412 Electricity1245 from RES 1027 62 Рис.Figure 65.16. Кінцеве 5.14 споживання Final енергетичних energy ресурсів consumption сільським господарством by40% serviceза Ліберальним sector сценарієм under Теплова енергія 312 211 255 278 299 301Electricity from296 RES 302 324 4 2012 2015 2020 2025 90%2030 2035 2040 2045Теплова2050 енергія 312 211 255 278 299 301 296 302 324 24% Ліберальний сценарій Електроенергія 312 -13%273 242 249 70%70%248 246 239 231 243 Вугілля 14 9 12 79%13 15 Gas 13 11 9Електроенергія1 312 -13%273 242 249 248 246 239 231 243 the4 Liberal Scenario 2012 2015 2020 2025 90%2030 2035 Share of RES2040 2045 Біопаливо20503 та відходи 20 19 19 21 23 248Heat Heat fromfrom 529RES 861 2127 Газ4 153 129 104 79%-5115% 126 126 119 105Біопаливо3 36 та відходи 20 19 19 21 23 248 529 861 2127 Вугілля 14 9 12 13 80%15 13 11 9 Сонячна1 енергія 0 0 0 0 60% 0 0 0 0 0 Units:Нафтопродукти3 mln toe. 1364 1302 1194 134520% 1481 1412 Share of RES1245 1027Сонячна енергія62 0 0 040% 0 60% 0 0 0 0 0 Газ 10% 153 129 104 -5115% 126 126 Electricity from119 RES 105 Теплова36 енергія з ВДЕ 0 1 40%23 31 40 Biofuel63 and 85wastes 95 137 Теплова2 енергія 312 211 255 278 80%299 Coal 301 296 302Теплова 324енергія з ВДЕ 0 1 23 31 40 Biofuel63 and 85wastes 95 137 Нафтопродукти3 1364 1302 1194 1345 70%1481 1412 1245 1027 Електроенергія622 з ВДЕ 20 16 42 66 95 119 140 160 196 Електроенергія 312 -13%273 242 249 248 246 Electricity 239from RES 231Електроенергія2 243 з ВДЕ 20 16 42 66 50%95 119 140 160 196 Теплова енергія0% Electricity1% and heat312 made211 255 about278 83%299 (37%301 Heat and from RES296 46%302 Частка324 ВДЕ 2% 2% 4% 6% 50% 7% 17% Electricity28% 40% 79% Біопаливо3 та відходи 20 19 19 21 70% 23 248 529 861Частка ВДЕ2127 2% 2% 4% 6% 7% 17% Electricity28% 40% 79% Електроенергія0 312 -13%273 242 2490% 248 Share246 of RES 239 231 Вплив243 заходів з ЕЕ 0 0 356 363 368 371 395 395 166 respectively)Сонячна енергія in the FEC structure0 0 of 0 the service0 60% 0 sector Heat0 from in RES02012. 0Вплив заходів0 з ЕЕ 0 0 356 363 40%368 371 395 395 166 Біопаливо3 та2012 відходи2015 2020 2025 2030 202035 204019 20451940%2050 21 23 248 529 861 Всього21272 2195 196028% 1889 2117 40%2326 2528 Heat 2664 2791 3125 Теплова енергія з ВДЕ 0 1 23 31 40 Biofuel63 and 85wastes 95Всього2 137 2195 196028% 1889 2117 2326 2528 Heat 2664 2791 3125 Сонячна енергія2 0 0 0 0 60% 0 0 0 0 0 13% 5% TheЕлектроенергія total з ВДЕ share of electricity20 16(generated40%42 66 from50%95 RES119 Biofuel and and 140 wastesfossil160 196 30% 13% 5% Теплова енергія з ВДЕ 0 1 23 31 40 Electricity63 85 95 137 17% Oil products Частка ВДЕ 2% 2% 4% 6% 7% 17% 28% 40% 79%1 30% Oil products Електроенергіяfuels)Вплив2 заходів з willВДЕ з ЕЕ remain at the same20 0 level16 0 in42356 2050,36366 but50% 368the95 share119371 of395140 heat395160 166196 17% 4% 40% 1 ЧасткаВсього ВДЕ2 2%2195 2%1960 18894% 21176% 23267% 252817% ElectricityHeat 266428% 279140% 312579% 20% Gas 28% Coal 20% Впливsupplied заходів з ЕЕ in the centralized0 way 0may356 fall to363 21%. 368The replacement13%371 395 395 5%166 7% Gas 2 40% 1 Всьогоwill take place7% by solar2195 energy17%196028% and1889 heat2117 generated30%2326 2528 HeatOil from products2664 RES.2791 1 3125 2% 4% 6% 7% 10% Coal 1 18% 13% Gas 5% 2% 4% 6% 10% Coal 30% 2% 2% 17% 20% OilGas products 0 0% Share of RES The1 share of gas will possibly slightly increase. The small share 0 0% Share of RES 1 7% 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 of biofuel and4% wastes6% is due to the preference20%10% given GasCoal Oil products to the 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2% 2% 45% district1 heating11.4 supply7% in the service9 sector.3 (from boiler houses, 0 4% 6% 10%0% CoalShare of RES 1% 1% 2% 2% mln toe mln toe 51% Heat95 1% 1% 2% Coal cogeneration2012 2015 2020plants)2025 instead2030 2035 of 2040direct2045 burning2050 in boilers . 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% Coal 0 0% Share of RES The Revolutionary Scenario shows that the use of RES 7% 6% Gas 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Electricity 14% 5% 10% Gas 1%75% 1% 7% 6% Oil products in the service1% 1% sector could grow very2% fast and reach Coal 88% in 5% 10% 14% Oil products Biofuel and wastes 8% Heat 2050. Increasing1% energy efficiency and energy saving Gas will play a 1% 1% 7% 6%1% 2% Coal 5% 10% 14% 8% Heat Electricity significant14% 2012 role as well as allow saving2050 about 30% of Oil productsresources 2.2 3.1 Gas Рис. 5.15. Кінцеве споживання7% енергетичних ресурсів сферою6% послуг за Революційним сценарієм 14% 2.2mln toe 3.mln1 toe Electricity Biofuel and wastes compared14% to the Conservative5% Scenario10% (Figure8% 5.15 Heat). Thermal Oil products mln toe mln toe Biofuel Solar energy and wastes 9 14% 100% Electricity 62% Революційний сценарій Influence of EE measures 2.2 3.188% 8% Heat Solar Heat energyfrom RES 2012 2015 2020 202590% 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 62% 8 mln toe mln toe Electricity Biofuel from and RES wastes 68% Вугілля14% 2.2 161 67 164 130 67 Electricity100 79 72 74 Heat Electricity from fromRES RES Газ 463 195 71%3.5421 48880% 388 Solar295 energy 267 233 184 68% Нафтопродукти7 62% 78 92 60 28 0 Heat from0 RES 2 0 0 mln toe mln toe-29% Biofuel and wastes Electricity from RES Теплова енергія 2326 63%1555 2117 189270% 1704 1231 Heat from RES807 508 183 Електроенергія6 1861 1777 151368% 1286 1011 Solar Solarenergy967 energy849 802 247 2012 2050 62% Electricity from RES Біопаливо та відходи 2752% 46 311 21860% 313 440 391 180 80 Сонячна5 енергія 0 0 0 0 0 Biofuel Heat 14and from wastes RES118 525Figure1012 2012 5.16 Final energy consumption2050 by agriculture under the Теплова енергія з ВДЕ 2 5 236 411 545 747 901 897 850 68% 50% Електроенергія з ВДЕ 41% 11 9 101 293 806 1387 Electricity 1642Electricity from2018 RES 2410Liberal3252 Scenario 4 2012 - 27% 2050 Частка ВДЕ 2.9% 4.0% 16.0% 27.3% 41.5% 52.3% 63.1% 71.3%Units:88.3% mln toe. Вплив заходів з ЕЕ 0 0 750 128340% 1501 1993 2329 2429 2400 27% Heat Всього3 5037 3838 5236 5258 5415 5436 5433 5625 5883 2012 2050 30% Oil products27% 29% Agriculture can switch to RES up to 96% in FEC under 2 16% 20% Gas the Revolutionary Scenario, where biofuel and wastes will 3% 1 4% 10% make up to 70% (Figure 5.17). In fact, the results do not show Coal 0 0% any significant technological breakthrough in this sector. It is Share of RES 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 enough to change motor vehicles and agricultural machines Figure 5.15 (part 1) Final energy consumption by service sector to biofuel (biodiesel, bioethanol) and maximize the share of under the 1%Revolutionary2% 3% Scenario 1% 3% 3% 4% Coal “green” electricity and heat in Ukraine. Units: mln toe. 2% 9% Gas 95 The use of biofuel and wastes by boiler houses and cogeneration plants belongs to the energy transformation sector rather then to the final energy consumption. Oil products 42 37% 5.0 5.9 17% Heat mln toe 55% mln toe Electricity 46% Biofuel and wastes 15% Solar energy

Heat from RES 2012 2050 Electricity from RES

Рис. 5.17. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів сільським господарством за Революційним сценарієм Революційний сценарій 4 2012 2015 202 0 2025120% 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 96% Influence of EE measures Вугілля 14 9 13-5% 7 4 2 1 1 0 Газ 153 129 128 125 120 104 77 51 0 3 100% Electricity from RES Нафтопродукти 1364-4% 1302 1286 1146 974 771 536 285 0 Теплова енергія 312 211 272 274 275 247 202 163 84 80% Електроенергія3 312 273 251 203 152 Heat from144 RES 123 109 33 Біопаливо та відходи 20 68%19 112 80%404 739 1119 1491 1845 2232 Сонячна енергія 0 0 0 0 0Біопаливо0 та відходи0 0 0 Теплова2 енергія з ВДЕ 0 1 30 59 88 150 226 288 388 54% Електроенергія з ВДЕ 20 16 49 61270% 208 Electricity245 293 327 439 Частка ВДЕ 2% 2% 9% 25% 40% 54% 68% 80% 96% 2 Вплив заходів з ЕЕ 40% 0 0 105 135 132 Heat 117 109 118 115 Всього 2195 1960 2140 2346 2562 2782 2950 3068 3176 40% 4% 4% 1 25% Oil products

20% Gas 1 2% 9% 2% Coal 0 0% 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Share of RES

1% 1% 1% 3% 1% Coal

7% Gas 14% 14% Oil products

12% Heat 14% 2.2 3.2 Electricity mln toe mln toe Biofuel and wastes

62% 70% Solar energy

Heat from RES 2012 2050 Electricity from RES Рис. 5.9. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів промисловістю за Революційним сценарієм 35 100% 88% Революційний сценарій Influence of EE measures 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal 8310 5569 5444 557590% 5439 Electricity4910 from RES3739 2603 547 Gas30 5272 2762 2146 2059 1830 1552 1152 776 276 Oil products 1246 814 1055 89180% 774 Heat from676 RES 909 223 0 Heat 4538 2870 3084-43% 2815 2538 2090 1516 1106 503 25 61% Electricity 5102-27% 4065 4921 448470% 3320 Solar energy3374 3116 3038 983 Biofuel and wastes 46 86 88 170 278 478 680 889 1235 Solar energy 0 0 0 60%0 0 0 0 0 0 20 Biofuel and wastes Heat from RES 5 48%10 344 611 812 1268 1693 1953 2335 Electricity from RES 325 232 952 281150% 4554 Electricity5728 7401 9132 12946 Total 2484437% 16408 18034 19415 19544 20077 20206 19720 18825 15Рис. 5.9. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів промисловістю за Революційним сценарієм Share of RES 1.5% 2.0% 7.7% 18.5%40% 28.9% Heat37.2% 48.4% 60.7% 87.7% Influence of EE measures 0 0 178 2382 4995 7607 9676 11812 13931 35 29% Революційний100% сценарій Influence of EE measures 88% 30% 27% 43% 10 19% 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 Oil products2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal 8310 5569 5444 557590% 5439 Electricity4910 from RES3739 2603 547 30 Gas 5272 2762 2146 205920% 1830 Gas 1552 1152 776 276 Oil products 1246 814 1055 89180% 774 676 909 223 0 5 8% Heat from RES Heat 4538 2870 3084-43% 281510% 2538 2090 1516 1106 503 252% 61% Coal Electricity 2% 5102-27% 4065 4921 448470% 3320 Solar energy3374 3116 3038 983 0 Biofuel and wastes 46 86 88 0%170 278 478 680 889 1235 Solar energy 0 0 0 60%0 0Share of RES0 0 0 0 201220 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Biofuel and wastes Heat from RES 5 48%10 344 611 812 1268 1693 1953 2335 Electricity from RES 325 232 952 281150% 4554 Electricity5728 7401 9132 12946 Total 2484437% 16408 180343% 1% 19415 19544 20077 20206 19720 18825 15 1% 3% Coal Share of RES 1.5% 2.0% 7.7% 18.5%40% 28.9% Heat37.2% 48.4% 60.7% 87.7% Influence of EE measures 29% 0 0 178 2382 4995 Gas7607 9676 11812 13931 27% 43% 10 5% 30% Oil products 21% 19% Oil products 34% 7%20% Gas 5 Heat 8% 10% 2% 2% Coal 24.8 18.8 12% Electricity 0 0% Share of RES 18%2012 mln2015toe 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 mln2045 toe2050 Biofuel and wastes 69% 3% 1% Solar energy 1% 3% Coal 5% 21% Heat Gas from RES 5% 21% Electricity Oil products from RES 34% 7% 2012 2050 Heat Рис. 5.11. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів населенням за Революційним сценарієм 24.8 18.8 12% Electricity 25 91% Революційний100% сценарій 18% mln toe mln toe Influence Biofuel of EE and measures wastes 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Вугілля 715 30369% 638 57890% 510 Solar395 energy 176 109 0 Газ 13760 9083 10351 9012 6609 Electricity5450 from RES4061 1981 0 21% Нафтопродукти20 5% 71 14 22 80%0 0 Heat from0 RES 0 0 0 Heat from RES Теплова енергія 4677 2864 64%3572-91% 3378 3471 2867 2129 1689 834 Електроенергія 3105-33% 3012 2645 182770% 1299 Electricity1325 from1259 RES 1252 403 Біопаливо та відходи 2012 936 1097 2050430 319 225 Solar energy137 39 0 0 Сонячна15 енергія 0 0 0 60%0 163 642 1372 2265 3304 ТепловаРис. енергія 5.11. зКінцеве ВДЕ споживання енергетичних5 ресурсів10 населенням399 за Революційним734 1110 сценарієм1739 2377 2980 3873 47% Biofuel and wastes Електроенергія з ВДЕ 198 172 512 114550% 1782 2251 2990 3763 5309 Частка ВДЕ25 4.9% 7.7% 7.2% 91%12.9%Революційний100% 21.6% сценарій32.2% 47.1% 64.2% 91.0% 32% Electricity Influence of EE measures Вплив заходів з ЕЕ 20120 20150 18222020 40772025 63122030 73232035 20408414 20459531 205010344 10 40% ВсьогоВугілля 23467715 16555303 18568638 1699157890% 15170510 14807395 14403176 14039109 137230 Heat Electricity from RES Газ 22% 13760 9083 10351 9012 6609 545033% 4061 1981 43%0 Нафтопродукти20 71 14 22 30%80%0 0 0 0 0 0 Теплова енергія 4677 2864 64%3572 3378 3471 Oil Heat products from2867 RES 2129 1689 834 13% -91% 5Електроенергія 3105-33% 3012 2645 182720%70% 1299 1325 1259 1252 403 Біопаливо та відходи 936 1097 430 319 225 Solar energy137 39 0 0 8% 7% Gas Сонячна155% енергія 0 0 0 10%60%0 163 642 1372 2265 3304 Теплова енергія з ВДЕ 5 10 399 734 1110 Biofuel 1739and wastes2377 2980 3873 Електроенергія з ВДЕ 198 47%172 512 1145 1782 Coal 2251 2990 3763 5309 0 0%50% Частка ВДЕ 4.9%32% 7.7% 7.2% 12.9% 21.6% Electricity32.2% 47.1% 64.2% 91.0% Вплив2012 заходів2015 з ЕЕ 2020 2025 2030 20350 2040 02045 18222050 4077 6312 7323 8414 9531 10344 10 40% Share of RES Всього 23467 16555 18568 16991 15170 14807 14403 14039 13723 Heat 33% 43% 22% 30% Oil products 1% 3% 13% 6% 5 3%20% Coal 8% 7% Gas 5% 4% 10% Gas 13% Coal 0 0% Oil products 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 39%2040 2045 2050 Share of RES 24% Heat 20% 23.5 13.7 Electricity mln toe1% 3% mln toe6% 59% 3% BiofuelCoal and wastes 4% SolarGas energy 13% Oil products 28% Heat from RES 39% Heat 24% Electricity from RES 20%201223.5 205013.7 Electricity mln toe mln toe 59% Biofuel and wastes Рис. 5.13. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів транспортом за Революційним сценарієм Solar energy Революційний сценарій 18 28% 120% Heat from RES 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 Influence2035 of EE measures2040 2045 2050 Вугілля 12 4 11 11 12 12 10 5 0 16 Electricity from RES Газ 2012 2050 1572 1250205097% 670 220 214 1191 1522 0 Нафтопродукти 8588 6554 7818 6924100% 5613 Electricity4426 from RES2684 1199 3 Електроенергія14 750 553 620 580 528 647 687 749 254 Рис. 5.13. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів транспортом за Революційним сценарієм Біопаливо та відходи -290 % 34 950 2207 3169 Biofuel3521 and wastes3663 3306 3787 Електроенергія12 з ВДЕ 48 32 120-56% 36380% 724 1098 1632 2251 3346 18 62% Революційний120% сценарій Частка ВДЕ 0%2012 1%2015 10%2020 24%2025 38%2030 Influence203547% of EE measures204054% 204562% 205097% Вплив10 заходівВугілля з ЕЕ 0 12 0 4 19611 122011 257312 Electricity397512 512310 69145 93190 16 54% Всього Газ 114482050 87491572 10768125097%1075660%670 10266220 9918214 11919868 15229032 73900 8Нафтопродукти 47%8588 6554 7818 6924100% 5613 Electricity442629% from RES2684 1199 56%3 14 Oil products Електроенергія 38% 750 553 620 580 528 647 687 749 254 6Біопаливо та відходи -290 % 34 950 220740% 3169 Biofuel3521 and wastes3663 3306 3787 Електроенергія12 з ВДЕ 48 32 120 36380% 724 1098 1632 2251 3346 24% -56% Gas Частка ВДЕ 0% 1% 62%10% 24% 38% 47% 54% 62% 97% 4 Вплив10 заходів з ЕЕ 0 0 196 1220 2573 Electricity3975 5123 6914 9319 54% 20% Всього 10% 11448 8749 10768 1075660% 10266 Coal 9918 9868 9032 7390 2 8 47% 29% 56% 0% 1% Oil products 38% 0 6 0%40% Share of RES 2012 2015 2020 202524%2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Gas 4 20% 10% Coal 2 4% 0% 1% Coal 0 0% Share of RES 2012 20157% 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 18% Gas

4% Oil products 11.4 45% 9.3 Coal 7% mln toe 18% mln toe 51% HeatGas

Electricity 75% 11.4 45% 9.3 Oil products mln toe mln toe 51% BiofuelHeat and wastes 2012 2050 Electricity Рис. 5.15. Кінцеве споживання75% енергетичних ресурсів сферою послуг за Революційним сценарієм

9 100% Biofuel and wastes 88%Революційний сценарій Influence of EE measures 2012 2012 2015 20202050202590% 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 8 Electricity from RES ВугілляРис. 5.15. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних161 ресурсів67 сферою164 послуг за 130Революційним67 сценарієм100 79 72 74 Газ 463 195 71%542 48880% 388 295 267 233 184 7 Heat from RES Нафтопродукти9 78 92 60 28100% 0 0 2 0 0 -29% Influence of EE measures Теплова енергія 2326 63%1555 2117 88%1892Революційний70% 1704 сценарій1231 807 508 183 Електроенергія6 18612012 17772015 15132020 1286202590% 10112030 Solar 2035energy967 2040849 2045802 2050247 8 Electricity from RES БіопаливоВугілля та відходи 2752%161 46 67 311164 218130 31367 440100 39179 18072 7480 71% 60% Сонячна5Газ енергія 0463 0195 5420 488080% 3880 Biofuel295 14and wastes267118 233525 1841012 Нафтопродукти7 78 92 60 28 0 Heat from0 RES 2 0 0 Теплова енергія з ВДЕ 2 5 236 -29%411 545 747 901 897 850 Теплова енергія 2326 63%1555 2117 189250% 1704 1231 807 508 183 Електроенергія з ВДЕ 41% 11- 27 9 % 101 293 80670% 1387 Electricity1642 2018 2410 3252 Частка4Електроенергія ВДЕ6 2.9%1861 4.0%1777 16.0%1513 27.3%1286 41.5%1011 Solar52.3% energy967 63.1%849 71.3%802 88.3%247 Вплив заходівБіопаливо з ЕЕта відходи 0 27 0 46 750311 128321840% 1501313 1993440 2329391 2429180 240080 27% 52% 60% Heat Всього3Сонячна5 енергія 5037 0 3838 0 5236 0 5258 0 54150 Biofuel5436 14and wastes5433118 5625525 10125883 Теплова енергія з ВДЕ 2 5 236 411 545 747 901 897 850 30%50% 27% 29% Електроенергія з ВДЕ 41% 11 9 101 293 806 1387 Oil Electricity products1642 2018 2410 3252 4 - 27% 2Частка ВДЕ 16% 2.9% 4.0% 16.0% 27.3%20% 41.5% 52.3% 63.1% 71.3% 88.3% Вплив заходів з ЕЕ 0 0 750 128340% 1501 Gas 1993 2329 2429 2400 27% Heat Всього3%3 5037 3838 5236 5258 5415 5436 5433 5625 5883 1 4% 10%30% Coal Oil products27% 29% 2 0 16% 0%20% Share Gas of RES 2012 3%2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 1 4% 10% Coal 0 0% 1% 2% 3% 1% 3% 3% Share of RES 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 4% Coal 2% 9% Gas 1% 2% 3% 1% 3% 3% 4% OilCoal products 9% 2% 37% 17% HeatGas As 5 the.0 figure below shows,5.9 the use Oilof products the energy generation will be reduced by 28% in 2035 and 22% in 2050 efficiencymln toeand energy saving55% potentialmln toe in the agricultural Electricity sector compared to the similar years of the Conservative Scenario 37% 17% Heat is negligible. 5This.046% is explained not only5.9 by the absence Biofuel ofand wastesthe (Figure 5.19). The demand for the electricity generation may 55% 15% Electricity economic feasibilitymln toe of energy savingmln and toe the implementation Solar energy slightly exceed the indicator of 2012 in 2035, and it will make 46% Biofuel and wastes of energy-efficient technologies, but also15% by the computational Heat from RES about 253 bln kWh in 2050, which is 27% higher that the Solar energy complexity of this potential and its representation Electricity from RES in the Рис.indicator 5.19. Виробництво of електроенергії 2012. за Ліберальним сценарієм 2012 2050 Heat from RES mathematical model. In fact, agriculture has much more Ліберальний сценарій 350 50% Influence of EE measures Electricity from RES 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Рис. 5.17. Кінцеве споживання2012 енергетичних ресурсів сільським господарством2050 за Революційним сценарієм 45% opportunities for reduction of the final energy consumption, NPPs (existing ones) 90 88 65 52 32 Biо CHPs/TPPs20 13 13 13 Революційний сценарій 45% 4 120% NPPs (new) 0 0 41% 0 7 14 14 20 20 20 but this requires further2012 research.2015 202 0 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045300 2050 Geothermal power plants Рис. 5.17. Кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів сільським господарством96% за Революційним Influence of сценаріємEE measures TPPs (existing ones) 79 58 42 19 2 0 0 0 0 Вугілля 14 9 13-5% 7 4 2 1 1 0 -22% 40% Революційний сценарій TPPs (existing modernised) 0 37%0 1 5 9 SPPs (roof26 mounted)27 27 27 Газ 4 1532012 1292015 128202 0 1252025120% 2030120 2035104 204077 204551 2050 0 -28% 3 96% Influence of EE measures TPPs (new, coal) 0 0 18 29 39 39 39 39 39 Нафтопродукти 1364 1302 1286 1146100% 974 Electricity771 from RES536 285250 0 33% 35% SPPs (ground mounted) Вугілля -4% 14 9 13-5% 7 4 2 1 TPPs1 (new, gas)0 0 0 5 7 9 7 7 7 7 ТепловаГаз енергія 312153 211129 272128 274125 275120 247104 20277 16351 084 3 CHPs and isolated generating plants 18 8 26 28 31 WPPs (ground32 mounted)34 36 33 80% 100% Heat Electricity from fromRES RES 28% 30% Електроенергія3 Нафтопродукти 3121364 2731302 2511286 2031146 152974 144771 536123 HPPs285109 and HPSPPs033 (large) 11 7 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 -4% 200 HPPs (small) БіопаливоТеплова та відходи енергія 20312 68%19211 112272 80%404274 739275 1119247 1491202 HPPs1845163 (small)223284 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 80% Heat from RES 25% СонячнаЕлектроенергія енергія3 0312 0273 0251 2030 1520Біопаливо1440 та відходи1230 WPPs1090 (ground33 mounted)0 21% 0 1 9 15 22 HPPs and27 HPSPPs (large)32 37 42 Теплова2 Біопаливо енергія з та ВДЕ відходи 0 20 68%1 19 30112 5980%404 73988 1119150 1491226 1845SPPs288150 (ground2232388 mounted) 0 0 3 5 7 9 12 14 16 20% CHPs and isolated generating plants ЕлектроенергіяСонячна енергіяз ВДЕ 54%20 0 16 0 49 0 127 0 2080Біопаливо2450 та відходи2930 SPPs3270 (roof mounted)4390 0 0 0 3 5 12 20 28 35 60% Electricity 15% Частка ТепловаВДЕ 2 енергія з ВДЕ 2% 0 2% 1 9%30 25%59 40%88 54%150 68%226 Geothermal28880% 388power96% plants 0 0 0 0 0 TPPs (new,0 gas) 0 0 0 2 Електроенергія з ВДЕ 54%20 16 49 127 208 245 293 327 100 439 15% Вплив заходів з ЕЕ 40% 0 0 105 13560% 132 Electricity117 109 Biо118 CHPs/TPPsРис. 5.19. 115Виробництво електроенергії за Ліберальним0 сценарієм0 4 4 5 TPPs (new,5 coal) 5 6 6 Частка ВДЕ 2% 2% 9% 25% 40% Heat 54% 68% Total80% 96% 199 162 182 186 187 205 224 242 253 Всього 2195 1960 2140 2346 2562 2782 2950 3068 3176 10% Вплив2 заходів з ЕЕ 0 0 105 40%135 132 117 109 118 115 Ліберальний сценарій TPPs (existing modernised) 40% Heat 4% Share of RES350 6%4% 5% 6% 5% 15% 21%50% 28% Influence of33% EE measures 37% 41% 45% Всього 25% 2195 1960 2140 2346 2562 2782 2950 3068 50 3176 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 1 Oil products Influence of EE measures 0 0 2045% 49 73 80 80 74 70 40% NPPs (existing ones) 90 88 65 52 5% 32 Biо CHPs/TPPs TPPs20 (existing13 ones) 13 13 4% 4% 45% 28% 22% 1 25% Oil products NPPs (new) 0 0 0 7 14 14 20 20 20 300 41% Geothermal NPPs (new)power plants 20% Gas TPPs0 (existing ones) 79 58 42 19 0% 2 0 0 0 0 1 9% 37% -22% 40% 2% 20% Gas TPPs (existing2012 modernised)2015 2020 2025 2030 0-203528% 20400 20451 20505 9 SPPs (roof NPPs26 mounted) (existing27 ones) 27 27 1 TPPs250 (new, coal) 0 0 18 29 39 39 39 39 39 2% 9% 33% 35% SPPs (ground Share of mounted) RES 2% Coal TPPs (new, gas) 0 0 5 7 9 7 7 7 7 0 2% 0% Coal CHPs and isolated generating plants 18 8 26 28 31 WPPs (ground32 mounted)34 36 33 28% 30% 0 0% HPPs200 and HPSPPs (large) 11 7 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Share of RES Figure 5.19 Electricity generation under the HPPsLiberal (small) Scenario 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Share of RES HPPs (small) 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 Рис. 5.20. Структура виробництва електроенергії в 2012 та 2050 роках за25% Ліберальним сценарієм Units: WPPs bln(ground kWh. mounted) 21% 0 1 9 15 22 HPPs and27 HPSPPs (large)32 37 42 SPPs150 (ground mounted) 0 0 3 5 7 9 12 14 16 20% CHPs and isolated generating plants SPPs (roof mounted) 0 0 0 3 5 12 20NPPs (existing28 ones) 35 1% 1% 1% 3% 15% 1% 1% 1% 1% Coal Geothermal power plants 0 0 0 0 0 TPPs (new,0 gas) 0 0 0 3% 1% Coal 100 Electricity generation by coal-based15% TPPs NPPs will (new) slightly Biо CHPs/TPPs 0 0 4 2% 4 5 TPPs (new,5 coal) 5 6 6 5% Gas reduce, Total though the share199 162 in the182 total186 electricity187 205 generation224 TPPs (existing242 ones) 253 7% Gas 6% 10% TPPs (existing modernised) 14% 7% 14% Share of RES6% 5% 6% 5% 14%15% 21% 8%28% 33% 37% 41% 45% 14% Influence509% of EE measures 0 0 20 49 73 80 TPPs80 (existing 74modernised) 70 14% Oil products structure will decline from 40% in 5% 2012 TPPs to (existing 27% ones) in 2050 Oil products 28% 22% TPPs (new, coal) NPPs (new) Heat (Figure0 5.20). It is necessary to modernize0% 11% existing and / or 12% Heat 6% TPPs (new, gas) 12% 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 NPPs (existing ones) 14% 14% construct new coal45% units that should meet modern European 2.22.2 33.2.2 ElectricityElectricity 199 253 Share of RES CHPs and isolated generating plants mln toemln toe mlnmln toe toe environmental requirements to maintan coal-based generation HPPs and HPSPPs (large) BiofuelBiofuel and wasteswastes bln kWh bln kWh at the same level. 17% 16% HPPs (small) Рис.40% 5.20. Структура виробництва електроенергії в 2012 та 2050 роках за Ліберальним сценарієм 62%62% 70%70% SolarSolar energyenergy WPPs (ground mounted) 3% NPPs (existing ones) HeatHeat fromfrom RESRES 5% SPPs (ground mounted) 13% NPPs (new) 2% SPPs (roof mounted) 5% ElectricityElectricity fromfrom RESRES 6% TPPs (existing ones) 2012 2050 8% Geothermal power plants 2012 2050 9% 14% TPPs (existing modernised) Biо CHPs/TPPs TPPs (new, coal) Figure 5.17 Final energy consumption by agriculture under the 2012 2050 11% 6% TPPs (new, gas) Revolutionary Scenario Рис. 5.21. Структура встановленої потужності45% електростанцій за Ліберальним сценарієм 199 253 CHPs and isolated generating plants Units: mln toe. HPPs and HPSPPs (large) bln kWh bln kWh NPPs (existing ones) 2012 205017% 1% 2% 16% HPPs (small) NPPs (ex40%isting ones) 14 2 NPPs (new) WPPs (ground mounted) 5.2 Electricity Generation NPPs (new) 0 3 TPPs (existing ones) TPPs (existing ones) 25 1 5% 3% SPPs (ground mounted) 10% 13% 5% TPPs (existing modernised) TPPs (existing modernised) 0 6 1% SPPs (roof mounted) TPPs (new, coal) 26% 0 9 6% TPPs (new, coal) Modeling results for the hypothetical Conservative Scenario 28% Geothermal power plants TPPs (new, gas) 0 2 TPPs (new, gas) of energy development in Ukraine show that coal power 15% Biо CHPs/TPPs CHPs and isolated generating plants 8 11 8% CHPs and isolated generating plants HPPs and HPSPPs2012 (large)53 5 6 2050143 plants can considerably expand their share in the structure of 0 0 HPPs and HPSPPs (large) Рис. 5.21. Структура встановленої потужності електростанцій за Ліберальним сценарієм5% GW 0 13 GW HPPs (small) electricity generation (Figure 5.18). Conditions of this scenario Figure 5.20 Electricity generation1% structure in 2012 and 2050 0 15 9% WPPs (ground mounted) NPPs (existing ones) envisage that the characteristics of the most technologies under the Liberal Scenario20120 205033 1% 2% NPPs (new)SPPs (ground mounted) NPPs (existing ones) 140 20 23% 10% remain unchanged by 2050, modern requirements for NPPs (new) 48% 0.010 32 TPPs (existingSPPs (roofones) mouinted) TPPs (existing ones) 25 1 Respective10% share0 40 of NPPs5% could declineTPPs (existingGeothermal modernised) significantly power plants decarbonization and ecologization of the energy sector are not TPPs (existing modernised) 11%0 76%6 1% TPPs (new, coal) 26% 0 9 6% TPPs (new,Biо coal) CHPs/TPPs Рис. 5.18. Виробництво електроенергії from 45% in 2012 to 13%53 in143 2050.28% This reduction is associated included, as well as incentives for increasing energy efficiency TPPs (new, gas) 0 2 TPPs (new,Storage gas) capacities CHPs and15% isolated2012 generating plants 8 11 2050 8% with high capital expenses for the plant lifetimeCHPs and isolated extension generating plants and RES. HPPs and HPSPPs (large)53 5 6 143 0 0 5% HPPs and HPSPPs (large) 400 Biо CHPs/TPPs Рис.and 5+B142.22. especially СтруктураGW інвестиційних for the потреб0 constructionв електроенергетиці13 GW за Консервативним of new та HPPs Ліберальним (small)nuclear сценаріями units. до 2050 р. 0 1% 15 350 Geothermal power plants 9% WPPs (ground mounted) Innovative types of reactors0 33 and small module units are not SPPs (ground mounted) SPPs (roof mounted) Консервативний0 0сценЛіберальний23% сценарій 1% 1% 2% 1% 300 investigated in this work, but only reactors10% which SPPsare (roof mouinted)similar 1%by NPPs (existing ones) 48% 14010.01 2 1401 1% NPPs (existing ones) SPPs (ground mounted) NPPsthe (new) technical and economic258050 40 characteristics12805 to thoseGeothermal powercurrently plants NPPs (new) 250 11% 76% TPPs (existing ones) 26222 0 Biо CHPs/TPPs 6% 11% TPPs (existing ones) WPPs (ground mounted) TPPsused (existing modernised)in Ukraine. 530 143 7199 10% 4% 200 Storage capacities TPPs (existing modernised) TPPs (new, coal) 2012 43380 136202050 21% HPPs (small) 7% TPPs (new, coal) TPPs (new, gas) Moreover, traditional7872 cogeneration1830 (CHP and isolated6% 150 TPPs (new, gas) HPPs and HPSPPs (large) CHPsРис. and 5+ isolatedB142.22. generating Структура plants інвестиційних11660 потреб в електроенергетиці9805 за Консервативним та Ліберальним сценаріями до 2050 р. 19% HPPsgenerating and HPSPPs (large) plants) 375 could increase.375 Its share in the total CHPs and isolated generating plants 100 120 112 12% CHPs and isolated HPPsstructure (small) of electricity1090 generation762 could increase from 9% in HPPs and HPSPPs (large) generating plants WPPs (ground mounted) Консервативний0 сценЛіберальний19297 сценарій 1% 1% m2%ln EUR 1% mln EUR HPPs (small) 50 1% TPPs (new, gas) SPPs2012NPPs (ground (existing mounted) to ones) 13% in 2050. 1401In57 addition,140111657 CHP and isolated generating 1% NPPs (existing ones) WPPs (ground mounted) NPPs (new) 25805 12805 22% NPPs (new) SPPs (roof mouinted) 270 21467 10% SPPs (ground mounted) 0 TPPs (new, coal) TPPs (existing ones) 26222 0 9% 2% Geothermalplants power using plants biomass can935 generate483 up to 2.5% of electricity in36% 6% 11% TPPs (existing ones) TPPs (existing modernised) 0 7199 10% 4% SPPs (roof mouinted) Biо CHPs/TPPs 1068 4779 TPPs (existing modernised) TPPs (existing modernised) TPPs (new, coal) 43380 13620 21% 17% Geothermal power plants the country. 7% TPPs (new, coal) Liberal Liberal Liberal Liberal StorageTPPs capacities (new, gas) 7872 18306883 6% 1% TPPs (new, gas) Biо CHPs/TPPs TPPs (existing ones) ShareCHPs of RES and isolated generating plants 11660 9805 19% 1% Considerable development of hydropower is not CHPs and isolated generatingStorage plants capacities Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative TotalHPPs and HPSPPs (large) 120135375 112364375 112

Revolutionary Revolutionary Revolutionary Revolutionary 120

Statistical data Statistical data Statistical NPPs (new) Conservative Scenario 12% HPPs and HPSPPs (large) expected,HPPs (small) because the1090 potential762 of small rivers is small, while Liberal Scenario WPPs (ground mounted) 0 19297 mln EUR mln EUR HPPs (small) 2012 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 NPPs (existing ones) theSPPs (ground potential mounted) of large rivers57 is 11657almost completely exhausted. In WPPs (ground mounted) 22% 10% SPPs (roof mouinted) 270 21467 36% 9% 2% SPPs (ground mounted) Figure 5.18 Electricity generation addition,Geothermal power plants construction935 of new483 big hydroelectric power plants SPPs (roof mouinted) Biо CHPs/TPPs 1068 4779 Units: bln kWh. 17% Geothermal power plants Storage capacities 6883 (HPP) or hydroelectric pumped-storage power plants (HPSPP) 1% Biо CHPs/TPPs Share of RES 1% Storage capacities hasTotal serious environmental120135 consequences.112364 However, results of modeling under the Liberal Conservative Scenario Scenario by 2050 (free development of all technologies is Solar and wind energy show the highest growth rates Liberal Scenario assumed) make it clear that electricity will be generated by all of the electricity generation due to considerable decrease of currently available technologies in Ukraine. Their structure will their cost. The share of the solar (SPP) and wind (WPP) power change considerably as the share of RES by 2050 will expand plants in the structure of electricity generation is expected at significantly compared to 2012. This is the case due to the the level of 20% and 17% respectively. And the share of the rapid improvement and decreasing costs of RES technologies. households’ SPP (roof mounted) could exceed more than two The demand for electricity will be significantly times the share of industrial SPP (ground mounted). reduced compared to the Conservative Scenario due to the The total installed capacity of the power plants implementation of economically feasible energy efficiency can increase by almost 2.7 times from 53 GW to 143 GW potential in the final energy consumption. Electricity (Figure 5.21). 43 Виробництво теплової енергії

#ССЫЛКА! 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2012 2015 #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ######## #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ######## Виробництво#ССЫЛКА! теплової енергії ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ######## #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ######## #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #######2012 #######2015 #######2020 #######2025 #######2030 2035####### 2040#######2045#######2050####### 2012#ССЫЛКА!2015 ######## #ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА! ############## ############## ################################################################################################## #ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА!######## ######## #ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА! ############## ############## ################################################################################################## #ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА!######## ######## #ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА! ############## ############## ################################################################################################## #ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА!######## ######## #ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА! ############## ############## ################################################################################################## #ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА!######## ######## Вплив заходів з ЕЕ#ССЫЛКА! та ВДЕ ############## ############## ################################################################################################## #ССЫЛКА! ######## #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ##################### ####### ############## #ССЫЛКА! ######## #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ######## #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ######## 0 #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### #######100% ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ######## Вплив заходів з ЕЕ та ВДЕ ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### 0 90% #######Вплив заходів з ЕЕ та ВДЕ####### 0.0% 0%0.0% 0% 0 80% 2012 2050 0 100% #ССЫЛКА! 0% 0% 0% 0% -20% -43% 0 0 90%70% Вплив заходів з ЕЕ та ВДЕ #ССЫЛКА! 0.0% 0%0.0% 0% 0 80% 2012 2050 0 0 0 0 0 60% #ССЫЛКА! 0% 0% 0% 0% -20% -43% #ССЫЛКА! 0 70% 0 50% #ССЫЛКА! 0 60% #ССЫЛКА! 0 0 0 0 0 40% #ССЫЛКА! 13,7 9,6 0 50% #ССЫЛКА! 0 30% #ССЫЛКА! млн т н.е. млн т н.е. 0 40% 13,7 9,6 0 20% #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! 0 30% млн т н.е. млн т н.е. 0 0 0 Мільйонтонн нафтового еквіваленту 0 10% 0.0% 0.0% #ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА! 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 20% 0 0 0

0Мільйонтонн нафтового еквіваленту 0% 0 0.0% 10% #ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА! Ліберальний сценарій 20120.0% 2015 20200% 20250% 20300% 20350% 0%2040 0%2045 0%2050 0 0% #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Ліберальний сценарій #ССЫЛКА!

Викиди парникових газів

#ССЫЛКА! 2012 2015 2020 2025#ССЫЛКА!2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 #ССЫЛКА! #######2012 #######2015 #######2020 #######2025 #######2030 2035####### 2040#######2045#######2050####### #ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА! ############## ############## ################################################################################################## #ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА! ############## ############## ################################################################################################## #ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА! ############## ############## ################################################################################################## #ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА! ############## ############## ################################################################################################## #ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА! ############## ############## ################################################################################################## #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА! ############## ############## ################################################################################################## #ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА! ############## ############## ################################################################################################## ВпливВплив заходів заходів з ЕЕ з ЕЕ та таВДЕ ВДЕ ############## 00 ################################################################################################## ############## ############## 1 1 60%60% 201220120%0% 0%0% 2050 2050 1 1 ВпливВплив заходів заходів з ЕЕ та з ВДЕЕЕ та ВДЕ 0%0%0% 0%0%0% 50% 0% 0% 1 50% 0% 0% 0 0 0 0 1 #ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА! 0 0 0 0

екв. 1 -

2 40% екв. 1 #ССЫЛКА! - 2 1 40% #ССЫЛКА! 1 353 307 -37% -48% #ССЫЛКА! 353 307 1 30% #ССЫЛКА! млн т СО2-е. млн т СО2-е. 1 -37% -48% 30% млн т СО -е. млн т СО -е. 0 #ССЫЛКА! 2 2 0 20% #ССЫЛКА! 0 #ССЫЛКА! 0 0 0 Мільйонтонн СО 20% 0 0 0 0 0 #ССЫЛКА! Мільйонтонн СО 10% #ССЫЛКА! 0 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% #ССЫЛКА! Ліберальний сценарій 0% 0% #ССЫЛКА! 0 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Ліберальний сценарій 2012 2015 2020 2025 0%2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 #ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА! 0 0% 2012 2015 2020 2025 #ССЫЛКА!2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА!

Індикатори Світ ОЄСР ЄС-28 Україна: Ліберальний сценарій 2014 2014 2014 2012 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Індикатори #ССЫЛКА! 0.14 0.11 0.09 ####### 0.31 ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! Світ ОЄСР ЄС-28 #######Україна: Ліберальний####### сценарій####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! 2014 2014 2014#######2012 2014####### 2015####### 2020####### #######2025 #######2030 #ССЫЛКА!2035 #######2040 #######2045 2050 #ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА! 0.141.89 4.160.11 3.080.09############## 2.330.31#######################################################################ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА!####### ############## ####### 0.35 4.5 #ССЫЛКА! 0.31 ####### ####### ####### 4.16####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### 0.3 #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### 4####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! 1.89 4.16 3.08 ####### 2.33 ####### 3.5####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### 3.08 0.35 0.25 4.5 0.31 3 4.16 0.3 0.2 2.5 4 2.33 0.14 1.89 0.15 2 3.5 0.25 0.11 3.08

0.09 т н.е./людину 1.5 0.1 3 0.2 1 2.5 2.33 0.05

т н.е./$1000т 2010 ВВП(ПКС) 0.14 0.5 1.89 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0.11 0

0.09 т н.е./людину 1.5 0.1 2014 2014 2014 2012 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2014 2014 2014 2012 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Світ ОЄСР ЄС-28 Україна: Ліберальний сценарій 1 0.05 Світ ОЄСР ЄС-28 Україна: Ліберальний сценарій

т н.е./$1000т 2010 ВВП(ПКС) 0.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 2014 2014 2014 2012 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2014 2014 2014 2012 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Витрати та інвестиції Світ ОЄСР ЄС-28 Україна: Ліберальний сценарій Світ ОЄСР ЄС-28 Україна: Ліберальний сценарій #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### Витрати та інвестиції#ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ########ССЫЛКА!####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ########ССЫЛКА!####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ########ССЫЛКА!####### #ССЫЛКА! ############## ############## ################################################################################################## ####### #################################################################################### ############## ####### ############## ####### ########################################## ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА! ############## ############## ################################################################################################## ####### #################################################################################### ############## ##################### ####### ########################################## ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА! ############## ############## ################################################################################################## ####### #################################################################################### ############## ####### ############## ####### ########################################## ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА! ############## ############## ################################################################################################## ####### #################################################################################### ############## ####### ############## ####### ########################################## ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### 90 #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА!####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ########ССЫЛКА!####### ####### ########ССЫЛКА!####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### 80 #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ########ССЫЛКА!########ССЫЛКА!########ССЫЛКА!####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### млрд Євро 70 млрд Євро млрд Євро #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! ########ССЫЛКА! ########ССЫЛКА! ########ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! ####### ########ССЫЛКА!####### ########ССЫЛКА! ########ССЫЛКА! ########ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! ########ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! ########ССЫЛКА! ########ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! ########ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! ########ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! 0 0 90 60 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! -5 -5 80 50 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА!#ССЫЛКА! млрд Євро 40 млрд Євро млрд Євро 70 -10 -10 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! 30 0 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! 0 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! 60 -15 -15 20 50 -5 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! -5 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! -20 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! -20 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! 10 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! 40 -10 -10 0 -25 -25 30 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! КА! КА! КА! КА! КА! КА! КА! КА! КА! -15 -15 #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ -30 -30 20 -20 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! -20 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! 10 ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА!####### ########ССЫЛКА!####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### 0 -25 -25 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! КА! КА! КА! КА! КА! КА! КА! КА! КА!

#ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ -30 -30

####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### Рис. 5.19. Виробництво електроенергії за Ліберальним сценарієм

Ліберальний сценарій 350 50% Influence of EE measures 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 45% NPPs (existing ones) 90 88 65 52 32 Biо CHPs/TPPs20 13 13 13 45% NPPs (new) 0 0 0 7 14 14 20 20 20 300 41% Geothermal power plants TPPs (existing ones) 79 58 42 19 2 0 0 0 0 37% -22% 40% TPPs (existing modernised) 0-28% 0 1 5 9 SPPs (roof26 mounted)27 27 27 TPPs (new, coal) 0 0 18 29 39 39 39 39 39 250 33% 35% SPPs (ground mounted) TPPs (new, gas) 0 0 5 7 9 7 7 7 7 CHPs and isolated generating plants 18 8 26 28 31 WPPs (ground32 mounted)34 36 33 28% 30% HPPs and HPSPPs (large) 11 7 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 200 HPPs (small) HPPs (small) 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 25% WPPs (ground mounted) 21% 0 1 9 15 22 HPPs and27 HPSPPs (large)32 37 42 SPPs150 (ground mounted) 0 0 3 5 7 9 12 14 16 20% CHPs and isolated generating plants SPPs (roof mounted) 0 0 0 3 5 12 20 28 35 15% Geothermal power plants 0 0 0 0 0 TPPs (new,0 gas) 0 0 0 100 15% Biо CHPs/TPPs 0 0 4 4 5 TPPs (new,5 coal) 5 6 6 Total 199 162 182 186 187 205 224 242 253 10% TPPs (existing modernised) Share of RES6% 5% 6% 5% 15% 21% 28% 33% 37% 41% 45% Influence50 of EE measures 0 0 20 49 73 80 80 74 70 5% TPPs (existing ones) 28% 22% NPPs (new) 0 0% 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 NPPs (existing ones) Share of RES

Рис. 5.20. Структура виробництва електроенергії в 2012 та 2050 роках за Ліберальним сценарієм

NPPs (existing ones)

NPPs (new) 2% 5% 6% TPPs (existing ones) 8% 9% 14% TPPs (existing modernised)

TPPs (new, coal) 11% 6% TPPs (new, gas) 45% 199 253 CHPs and isolated generating plants bln kWh bln kWh HPPs and HPSPPs (large) 17% 16% HPPs (small) 40% WPPs (ground mounted)

5% 3% SPPs (ground mounted) 13% SPPs (roof mounted)

Geothermal power plants 2012 2050 Biо CHPs/TPPs

Рис. 5.21. Структура встановленої потужності електростанцій за Ліберальним сценарієм

NPPs (existing ones) 2012 2050 1% possible. Thus, electricity demand in 2050 will be greater than NPPs (existing ones) 14 2 2% NPPs (new) NPPs (new) 0 3 TPPs (existing ones) it was under the Conservative Scenario, even if implementation TPPs (existing ones) 25 1 TPPs (existing modernised) TPPs (existing modernised)10% 0 6 5% 1% of energy efficiency policies is taken into an account. However, 6% TPPs (new, coal) TPPs (new, coal) 26% 0 9 28% calculations show that electricity generation will be onlyby TPPs (new, gas) 0 2 TPPs (new, gas) Рис. 5.23. Виробництво електроенергії за Революційним сценарієм CHPs and15% isolated generating plants 8 11 8% CHPs and isolated generating plants 14% higher in 2050 compared to baseline year of 2012. HPPs and HPSPPs (large)53 5 6 143 0 0 5% HPPs and HPSPPs (large) Influence of EE measures GW 0 13 GW HPPs (small) 400 Революційний100% сценарій 1% 93% 0 15 9% WPPs (ground mounted) 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030Biо CHPs/TPPs2035 2040 0 33 NPPs (existing ones) 90 88 65 52 32 20 0 SPPs (ground mounted) 90% 0 0 23% 10% NPPs350 (new) 0 0 0 0 0 Geothermal0 power plants0 48% 0.01 2 SPPs (roof mouinted) 75% TPPs (existing ones) 79 58 42 20 2 SPPs (roof mounted)1 1 0 40 Geothermal power plants 70% 80% 11% 76% TPPs (existing modernised) 63%0 0 1 5 9 24 31 Biо CHPs/TPPs 300 SPPs (ground mounted) 53 143 TPPs (new, coal) 0 0 19 25 26 26 26 Storage capacities -28% 70% 2012 2050 TPPs (new, gas) 0 0 7 4 1 WPPs (ground0 mounted)4 Рис. 5.19. Виробництво електроенергії за Ліберальним сценарієм CHPs250 and isolated generating plants 58% 18 8 18 18 20 21 23 60% HPPs (small) Figure 5.21 Structure of installed capacity of power plants HPPs and HPSPPs (large) 11 7 10 11 12 12 12 Ліберальний сценарій Рис. 5+B142.22. Структура інвестиційних потреб в електроенергетиці за Консервативним та Ліберальним сценаріями до 2050 р. 350 50% Influence of EE measures HPPs (small) 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 HPPs and HPSPPs (large) 45% under the Liberal Scenario 200 50% NPPs (existing ones) 90 88 65 52 32 Biо CHPs/TPPs20 13 13 13 WPPs (ground mounted) 0 1 9 45 80 94 117 45% CHPs and isolated generating NPPs (new) 0 0 41% 0 7 14 14 20 20 20 Консервативний сценЛіберальний сценарій SPPs (ground mounted) 1%0 0 3 10 17 27 40 300 Geothermal power plants 1% 1% 2% 39% plants TPPs (existing ones) 79 58 42 19 2 0 0 0 0 1% NPPs (existing40% ones) -22% 40% NPPs (existing ones) 1401 1401 SPPs (roof mounted) 1% 0 0 0 3 5 TPPs (new,11 gas) 17 TPPs (existing modernised) 0 37%0 1 5 9 SPPs (roof26 mounted)27 27 The27 use of the storage capacity is considered to 150 -28% NPPs (new) 25805 12805 Geothermal power plants 0 0 0 NPPs (new)0 0 0 0 TPPs (new, coal) 0 0 18 29 39 39 39 39 39 250 33% 35% SPPs (groundTPPs mounted) (existing ones) 26222 0 6% TPPs (existing30% ones) TPPs (new, coal) TPPs (new, gas) 0 0 5 7 9 7 ensure7 7 planned7 and reliable operation of SPP and WPP. It is Biо CHPs/TPPs 4% 11%0 0 7 8 9 10 14 TPPs (existing modernised) 0 7199 10% TPPs (existing modernised) CHPs and isolated generating plants 18 8 26 28 31 WPPs (ground32 mounted)34 36 33 100 TPPs (existing modernised) 28% 30% TPPs (new, coal) 43380 13620 Total 21% 199 162 180 200 214 247 285 HPPs200 and HPSPPs (large) 11 7 10 11 12 12 12assumed12 12that it is necessary to reserve 0.74 kW and 0.42 kW 16% 7% TPPs (new, coal) HPPs (small)TPPs (new, gas) 7872 1830 6% Share of RES 6% 5% 16% 39%20% 58% 63% 70% HPPs (small) 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 TPPs (new, gas) TPPs (existing ones) 25% 19% HPPs and HPSPPsCHPs (large) andof isolated the generating storage plants capacity11660 for every9805 1 kW of power produced Influence of EE measures 0 0 21 35 46 39 19 WPPs (ground mounted) 21% 0 1 9 15 22 27 32 37 42 50 6% CHPs and isolated generating plants SPPs150 (ground mounted) 0 0 3 5 7 9 HPPs and12 HPSPPs14 (large) 16 375 375 120 5% 112 10% NPPs (new)14% 20% CHPs and isolated generating plants 12% HPPs and HPSPPs (large) SPPs (roof mounted) 0 0 0 3 5 12 HPPs (small)20by SPP28 and35 WPP, 1090 respectively762 (see detailed explanation in 15% mln EUR mln EUR HPPs (small) NPPs (existing ones) Geothermal power plants 0 0 0 0 0 TPPs (new,0 WPPsgas) (ground0 mounted)0 0 0 19297 15% 0 0% Biо CHPs/TPPs100 0 0 4 4 5 5 SPPs (groundSection 3.55 mounted)6 6 ). Taking into57 account11657 this information and possible WPPs (ground mounted) TPPs (new, coal) 22%2012 2015 2020 10%2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Share of RES Total 199 162 182 186 187 205 SPPs 224(roof mouinted)242 253 270 21467 9% 2% SPPs (ground mounted) 10% TPPs (existing modernised)rapid development of solar and wind energy, the share of36% the Share of RES6% 5% 6% 5% 15% 21% 28% 33% Geothermal37% power41% plants 45% 935 483 SPPs (roof mouinted) Influence50 of EE measures 0 0 20 49 73 80 Biо CHPs/TPPs80 74 70 1068 4779 Рис. 5.23. Виробництво електроенергії за Революційним сценарієм 5% TPPs (existing ones) Figure 5.23 Electricity17% generation Geothermalunder power plantsthe Revolutionary 28% installed 22%capacity of storage technologies in the total installed Storage capacities 6883 1% Influence of EE measures NPPs (new) Scenario400 Революційний100% Biо CHPs/TPPsсценарій 0 0% Share of RES 2012 20151% 2020 93% 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 capacity in the energy sector is the highest and will make up StorageBiо capacities CHPs/TPPs NPPs (existingTotal ones) 120135 112364 NPPs (existing ones) 90 88 65 52 32 20 0 0 0 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Conservative ScenarioUnits: bln kWh. 90% 28% (about 40 GW). The capacity of roof mounted SPPs owned NPPs350 (new) Liberal 0Scenario0 0 0 0 Geothermal0 power plants0 0 0 Share of RES 75% TPPs (existing ones) 79 58 42 20 2 1 1 1 0 80% SPPs (roof mounted) by households will make up 23% and the one of industrial SPPs TPPs (existing modernised) 0 70%0 1 5 9 24 31 32 0 300 One of the conditions63% of the Revolutionary Scenario is TPPs (new, coal) 0 0 19 25 26 SPPs (ground26 mounted)26 26 0 -28% 70% Рис. 5.20. Структура виробництва електроенергії в 2012 та 2050 роках за Ліберальним сценарієм will constitute 10%. The share of WPP will grow to 9%. phaseTPPs (new, gas) out of nuclear power0 0 by 2050.7 4Thus,1 construction0 4 0 of new7 WPPs (ground mounted) CHPs250 and isolated generating plants 58% 18 8 18 18 20 21 23 25 19 60% NPPs (existing ones) Only storage capacities is taken into account in the unitsHPPs and HPSPPsis not (large) envisioned11 under7 this10 scenario,11 12 HPPs (small) and12 existing12 12 units12 HPPs (small) 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 NPPs (new)model to ensure predictability and reliability of SPPs and willWPPs200 (groundbe mounted)operating until0 the1 end9 of 4550%their80 HPPsextended and HPSPPs94 (large)117 life131 time163 (see 2% 39% 5% TPPs (existing ones) SPPs (ground mounted) 0 0 3 10 17 CHPs and isolated27 generating40 63 96 6% 40% 14% 8% WPPs. The actual demand for the storage capacities could be Section 2.6SPPs 150(roof mounted) on explanation0 0 of assumptions0 3 5plants 11on NPP).17 23RES-based36 9% TPPs (existing modernised) Geothermal power plants 0 0 0 0 0 TPPs (new, gas)0 0 0 1 lower, because gas-based generation and hydropower facilities technologiesBiо CHPs/TPPs also replace0 0 coal7 power30%8 plants9 10 as14 envisioned18 31 TPPs (new, coal) TPPs (new, coal) 100 6% 11% Total 16% 199 162 180 200 214 247 285 330 366 TPPs (new,could gas) also be used for balancing and ensuring reliability of the underShare of RES conditions of this6% scenario.5% 16% 39%20% 58% TPPs (existing63% modernised)70% 75% 93% 45% Influence of EE measures 0 0 21 35 46 39 19 -14 -43 199 CHPs and isolated generating plants 50 TPPs (existing ones) 253 power system. 6%Thus,5% the structure of electricity10% generation14% will change-13% HPPs and HPSPPs (large) bln kWh bln kWh NPPs (new) 17% 16% HPPs (small) Moreover, possibilities for intensive development of considerably0 by 2050 compared to 0%2012 (Figure 5.24). Wind NPPs (existing ones) 40% 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 WPPs (ground“smart” mounted) grids and demand-side management systems are not and solar power plants will provide the largest share of Рис. 5.23. Виробництво електроенергії за Революційним сценарієм 5% 3% SPPs (ground mounted) 13% taken into account. At the same time, they can significantly electricity production. In total, they will Influence count of EE measures for more than SPPs (roof mounted) Рис.400 5.24. Структура виробництва електроенергії в 2012 та 2050 рокахРеволюційний за 100%Революційним сценарій сценарієм 2012 2015 2020 93% 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 reduce the needs for the storage capacities and significantly 80% of the generated electricity. Biо CHPs/TPPs Geothermal power plants NPPs (existing ones) 90 88 65 52 32 20 0 0 0 90% NPPs350 (new) 0 0 0 0 0 Geothermal0 power plants0 0 0 Biо CHPs/TPPsimprove the quality of energy services. The balancing potential 75% NPPs (existing ones) TPPs (existing ones) 79 58 42 20 2 1 1 1 0 2012 2050 80% SPPs (roof mounted) TPPs (existing modernised) 0 70%0 1 5 9 24 NPPs31 (new) 32 0 of the interstate flow of electricity was not taken into account 300 63% 2% Рис. 5.21. Структура встановленої потужності електростанцій за Ліберальним сценарієм TPPs (new, coal) 0 0 19 25 26 26 26 26 0 70% SPPs (ground mounted)TPPs (existing ones) TPPs (new, gas) -028% 0 7 4 1 0 4 0 7 intentionally, because it was important to estimate the national WPPs (ground mounted) CHPs250 and isolated generating plants 58% 18 8 18 18 20 21 TPPs23 (existing modernised)25 19 NPPs (existing ones) 6% 9% 60% 5% 3% 2012 2050 HPPs and HPSPPs (large) 11 7 10 11 12 HPPs (small)12 12 12 12 1% 2% self-sufficiency for implementation of scenarios with high TPPs (new, coal) NPPs (existing ones) 14 2 ВиробництвоNPPs (new) теплової енергії HPPs (small)9% 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 200 10% 50% HPPs and HPSPPs (large) NPPs (new) 0 3 TPPs (existing ones) WPPs (ground mounted) 0 1 9 45 80 94 TPPs117 (new, gas)131 163 share of RES. However, this instrument#ССЫЛКА! can significantly reduce 39% TPPs (existing ones) 25 1 SPPs (ground mounted) 0 0 3 10 17 CHPs and isolated27 generating40 63 96 10% 5% TPPs (existing modernised) 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2012 2015 40% CHPs and isolated generating plants TPPs (existing modernised) 0 6 1% the cost of the “energy transition”. SPPs 150(roof mounted) 0 0 0 3 5plants 11 17 23 36 6% TPPs (new, coal) #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ######## 45% TPPs (new, gas) TPPs (new, coal) 26% 0 9 28% Geothermal power plants 0 0 0 3660 0 0 HPPs0 and HPSPPs0 (large) 1 #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### Biо CHPs/TPPs#ССЫЛКА!199######## 0 0 7 30%8 9 10 14 18 31 TPPs (new, gas) 0 2 TPPs (new, gas) If condition on conservative (“frozen”) techologies TPPs (new, coal) 15% Total 100 16% 199 162 180 200 214 247 HPPs285 (small) 330 366 CHPs and isolated generating plants 8 11 8% CHPs and isolated generating#ССЫЛКА! plants ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА!bln ########kWh bln kWh HPPs and HPSPPs (large) 5 6 #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### Share of RES#ССЫЛКА! ######## 6% 5% 26%16% 39%20% 58% TPPs (existing63% modernised)70% 75% 93% 53 143 HPPs and inHPSPPs (large) the power sector is applied, the demand for investments 45% WPPs (ground mounted) 0 0 5% #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### Influence40% of#ССЫЛКА! EE measures######## 0 0 21 35 46 39 19 -14 -43 50 6% TPPs (existing ones) GW 0 13 GW HPPs (small)for #ССЫЛКА! construction####### of####### the####### #######new ####### power####### plants,####### ####### support####### and #ССЫЛКА!5% ######## 10% 14% SPPs (ground mounted)-13% 0 1% 15 NPPs (new) 9% WPPs (ground mounted)#ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ######## SPPs (roof mounted) 0 33 0 0% SPPs (groundmodernization mounted)#ССЫЛКА! ####### of #######the existing####### ####### ####### power####### plants####### ####### could####### beeven #ССЫЛКА! ######## NPPs (existing ones) 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Geothermal power plants 0 0 23% 10% #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ######## 48% 0.01 2 SPPs (roof mouinted) Вплив заходівgreater з ЕЕ та ВДЕthan in the####### case####### of #######the Liberal####### ####### Scenario####### #######(Figure####### 5.22#######). Biо CHPs/TPPs 0 40 Geothermal power plants ####### ####### 11% 76% This confirms once again that “unused” energy due to 2012 2050 Biо CHPs/TPPs Рис. 5.24. Структура виробництва електроенергії в 2012 та 2050 роках за Революційним сценарієм 53 143 Storage capacities Рис. 5.25. Структура встановленої потужності електростанцій за Революційним сценарієм 2012 2050 improvements0 in energy efficiency100% and energy saving is Figure 5.24 Electricity generation structure in 2012 and 2050 NPPs (existing ones) “cheaper” than additional power generation for satisfying Революційний сценарій NPPs (existing ones) 0 90% Вплив заходів з ЕЕ та ВДЕ under the Revolutionary2012 Scenario2015 2020 2% 20252% 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Рис. 5+B142.22. Структура інвестиційних потреб в електроенергетиці за Консервативним та Ліберальним сценаріями до 2050 р. 2% NPPsNPPs (new) (new) growing demand. NPPs (existing ones) 0% 14 14 10 2% 8 2%0%5 3 0 0 0 2012 0.0% 0.0% 2050 TPPsTPPs (existing (existing ones) ones) 0 80% #ССЫЛКА! NPPs (new) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TPPs (existing ones) 0% 25 25 25 24 22 18 12 7 1 Консервативний сценЛіберальний сценарій 1% 1% 2% 1% -43% In10% contrast0% to the Liberal Scenario, in0% the0% TPPs RevolutionaryTPPs (existing (existing modernised) modernised) NPPs (existing ones) 1401 1401 1% -20% NPPs (existing ones) TPPs (existing modernised)6% 0 0 9% 0 5% 3%1 2 6 7 7 7 0 1% 70% 26% TPPs (new, coal) NPPs (new) 25805 12805 #ССЫЛКА!NPPs (new) ScenarioTPPs (new,9% coal) the share of industrial0 0 SPP4 in the6 total6 structureTPPs6 (new, coal)6 of6 the6 TPPs (new, gas) 0 10%0 2 2 16%2 2TPPs (new,2 gas) 2 0 2 0 0 0 TPPs (existing ones) 26222 0 0 6% 60% TPPs (existing ones) 35% TPPs (new, gas) 4% 11% CHPs 15%and isolated generating plants 8 8 9 9 9 9CHPs and isolated8 generating8 plants8 TPPs (existing modernised) 0 7199 10% #ССЫЛКА!TPPs (existing modernised) electricity generation exceeds the share of the SPP owned by TPPs (new, coal) 43380 13620 21% HPPs and HPSPPs (large) 5 6 6 6 6 CHPs6 and isolated6 generating6 plants 6 0 7%50% TPPs (new, coal) 53 HPPs and HPSPPs (large) TPPs (new, gas) 7872 1830 6% households.HPPs (small) 45% 0 0 0327 0 0 0 0 0 0 TPPs (new, gas) ) HPPsHPPs and (small) HPSPPs (large) CHPs and isolated generating plants 11660 9805 19% #ССЫЛКА! WPPs (ground mounted199GW 0 1 3663 GW 14 24 28 35 39 52 0 40% CHPs and isolated generating plants SPPs (ground mounted) 0 1 3 10 9,617 25WPPs (ground35 mounted)56 91 13,7 HPPs (small) HPPs and HPSPPs (large) 375 375 120 112 12% Electricitybln kWh generation underbln kWh the Revolutionary Scenario HPPs (small) 1090 762 HPPs and HPSPPs (large) SPPs (roof mounted) 0 0 0 3 5 10SPPs (ground16 mounted)21 34 #ССЫЛКА! 26% WPPs (ground mounted) 0 mln EUR mln EUR 30% HPPs (small) Geothermal powerмлн plants т н.е. 0 0 0 млн0 45% т0 н.е.0 0 0 0 WPPs (ground mounted) 0 19297 in 205040% will be only by 14% higher than in the SPPsConservative (roof mounted) Biо CHPs/TPPs 0.01 0 2 2 28% 2 2 3 4 7 SPPs (ground mounted) 57 11657 WPPs (ground mounted) 2% 11% SPPs (ground mounted) 22% 10% ScenarioStorage capacities though installed0 capacity0 3of the14 electricity25 37Geothermal generation52 power plants73 114 SPPs (roof mouinted) 270 21467 0 9%20% 2%#ССЫЛКА!SPPs (ground mounted) 48% 36% Share of RES 11% 14% 25% 50% 63% 72%SPPsBi (roofо CHPs/TPPs mounted)81% 87% 093% 0 0 Geothermal power plants 935 483 SPPs (roof mouinted) Biо CHPs/TPPs 1068 4779 Мільйонтонн нафтового еквіваленту objectsTotal will be 3.6 times53 higher55 66in the98 Revolutinary125 151 183 Scenario229 327 0 0.0% 17% 10% #ССЫЛКА!Geothermal power plants GeothermalStorage capacities power plants Storage capacities 6883 0.0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Biо CHPs/TPPs Biо CHPs/TPPs Share of RES 1% (Figure 5.252012). This is explained by 2050the fact that ICUFs of WPPs 0 0% Storage capacities Total 120135 112364 #ССЫЛКА! 2012 Ліберальний сценарій2050 Conservative2012 2015 Scenario2020 2025 2030 2035 2040Liberal2045 Scenario2050 andРис. 5.26. SPPs Структура areінвестиційних significantly потреб в електроенергетиці lower за Революційним than сценарієм ICUF до 2050 р. of coal TPPs and #ССЫЛКА! Рис. 5.25. Структура встановленої потужностіРеволюційний електростанційNPPs сценарій (existing за ones) Революційним сценарієм NPPs. Moreover,4% 4% considerable amount of storage capacities Figure 5.22 Structure of investments in power sector under 1% NPPs (new) NPPs (existing ones) 467 Революційний сценарій NPPs (existing ones) 2012 TPPs (existing2015 ones) 2020 2% 20252% 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Conservative and Liberal Scenarios up to 2050 NPPs (new) 3% 0 2% NPPs (new) NPPs (existing ones) 14 14 10 8 2%5 3 0 0 0 TPPs (existing ones)8% 0 TPPs (existing modernised) Викиди парникових газів NPPs (new) 0 0 0 0 0 0TPPs (existing0 ones) 0 0 TPPs (existing modernised) 7914 TPPs (existing9% ones) 25 TPPs (new,25 coal) 25 24 22 18 12 7 1 TPPs (new, coal)10% 9143 TPPs (existing modernised) Results of modeling under the Revolutionary Scenario TPPs (existing modernised) TPPs0 (new, gas)0 0 1 2 6 7 7 7 TPPs (new, gas) 2080 TPPs (new, coal) TPPs (new, coal) 26% 0 0 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 CHPs and isolated generating plants 5454 CHPs and isolated generating plants show that available RES potential is sufficient to satisfy TPPs10% (new, gas) 0 0 2 2 16%2 2TPPs (new,2 gas) 2 2 HPPs and HPSPPs (large) 375 HPPs and35% HPSPPs (large) CHPs 15%and isolated generating220 plants 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 HPPs (small) 714 CHPs and isolated generating plants the demand for electricity generation#ССЫЛКА! by 91% from RES HPPs and HPSPPs (large) HPPs5 (small)6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 WPPs (ground mounbted)ln EUR 75420 HPPs and HPSPPs (large) 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 HPPs (small) 53 34% 0 0 0327 0 0 0 0 0 0 SPPs (ground mounted) 58820 WPPs (ground mounted) (Figure#ССЫЛКА! 5.23). This####### is definitely####### ####### a####### big #######challenge####### for####### the####### United####### WPPs (ground mounted) 0 1 3 14 24 28HPPs (small)35 39 52 SPPs (roof mounted) GW 21564 SPPs (ground mounted) GW #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### SPPs (ground mounted) 0 1 3 10 17 25WPPs (ground35 mounted)56 91 Geothermal power plants 580 Energy#ССЫЛКА! System and####### institutions####### ####### #######responsible####### ####### for #######implementation####### ####### SPPs (roof mounted) SPPs0 (roof mounted)0 0 3 5 10 16 21 34 Biо CHPs/TPPs27% 20614 SPPs (ground mounted) #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### Geothermal power plants Geothermal0 0power plants0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Storage capacities 16604 SPPs (roof mounted) of such#ССЫЛКА! “greening”####### policy####### in####### the #######power####### sector.####### Thus,####### practical####### ####### Biо CHPs/TPPs 0.01 0 2 2 28% 2 2 3 4 7 Share of RES Biо2% CHPs/TPPs 11% #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### Storage capacities 0 0 3 14 25 37Geothermal52 power plants73 114 institutional, technical, economic, etc. dimensions of this Total 48% 219748 Storage capacities #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### Share of RES 11% 14% 25% 50% 63% 72%Biо CHPs/TPPs81% 87% 93% Total 53 55 66 98 125 151 183 229 327 “energy#ССЫЛКА! transition”####### should####### #######be examined####### ####### in #######more detail####### involving####### ####### Storage capacities #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### Рис. 5.27. Різниця в інвестиційних потребах в електроенергетиці між альтернативними та Консервативним сценаріями Вплив заходівa number з ЕЕ та ВДЕ of competent####### experts0 ####### in####### the####### field.####### ####### ####### ####### 2012 2050 ####### ####### 65 46 Storage capacities Рис. 5.26. Структура інвестиційних потреб в електроенергетиці заLiberal Революційним Scenario сценарієм до 2050 р. Revolutionary Scenario To achieve objectives of the Revolutionary Scenario it is Figure 5.25 Structure2020 of2025 installed2030 2035 capacity2040 2045 ofBiо CHPs/TPPs 2050 power plants2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 NPPs55 (existing ones) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -934 0 0 1 60% 4% РеволюційнийNPPs сценарій (existing ones) Geothermal power plants necessary to electrify the energy sector of Ukraine as much as NPPs (new)0%0% 4% 0 0 -6500 -13000 6500 0 0 0 -1625 -11180 -13000 0 0 0 2012under the Revolutionary20501% NPPs (new)Scenario 1 Вплив заходів з ЕЕ та ВДЕ NPPs TPPs45 (existing (existing ones) ones) 4670 0%0%0%0 0 0 0 0 SPPs (roof mounted)0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TPPs (existing modernised) 40 162 532 740 -4029 -7127 -9341 40 162 532 93 -2453 -7127 -9555 50% NPPs (new)0% 3% 0 TPPs0% (existing ones) Виробництво теплової енергії 1 TPPs (new, coal) 2670 -2415 -3180 -768021 -71700 0 -64050 SPPs (ground0-5580 mounted) 3335 -4385 -6353 -7680 -7170 -6405 -5580 #ССЫЛКА! TPPs35 (existing ones)8% 0 TPPs (existing modernised) TPPs (new, gas) -300 -480 -1966 -2016 -1280 0 WPPs (ground0 mounted) 0 -1280 -2016 -2016 -1280 0 800 екв. 1 TPPs (existing modernised) 7914 TPPs (new, coal) - CHPs9% and isolated generating plants -430 -160 -333 -417 -137 -45 -333 -3091 -812 -984 -989 -228 -132 31 #ССЫЛКА! 2 44 40% 13 #ССЫЛКА! TPPs25 (new, coal) 9143 15 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2012 2015 HPPs and HPSPPs (large) 0 TPPs-280 (new, gas)0 280 0 0 0 HPPs (small)0 0 -280 0 0 280 0 0 1 TPPs (new, gas) 2080 #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ######## HPPs (small)353 5 -21 307-35 -37-7 -65 -64 -19 -87 -36 -46 -76 -82 -47 -36 -53 -37% -48% #ССЫЛКА! CHPs and isolated generating plants 5454 CHPs11 and isolated generating plants HPPs and HPSPPs (large) #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #######1 ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ######## 30% WPPsмлн15 (ground11 т СО mounted)2-е. -3 3012млн т 2165СО2-е. 2100 1885 3776 3254 3105 3012 12339 10715 4776 10010 14065 20504 HPPs10% and HPSPPs (large)-5 -13 -6 375 #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ######## #ССЫЛКА! SPPs (ground mounted)3 220 2200 HPPs1661 and HPSPPs1587 (large) 1563 1394 1262 CHPs and1933 isolated generating plants2200 5859 5554 5852 7246 12132 19921 0 HPPs SPPs (small) (roof mounted) 714244 1714 1814 4816 4832 4440 3338 244 1714 1814 3749 3334 3023 7416 #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ######## 5 HPPs (small) TPPs (new, gas) 20% WPPs Geothermal (ground power mounb ted)plantsln EUR 75420249 -179 -364 -127 0 0 0 1080 -138 62 -179 -465 -127 12 48 294 #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #######0 ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ######## #ССЫЛКА! 34% WPPs (ground mounted)

Мільйонтонн СО S PPsBiо CHPs/TPPs(ground mounted) 588202377 95 175 168 162 258 TPPs (new,476 coal) 4479 630 941 678 2175 2266 8377 #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ######## 0 SPPsStorage-5 (roof capacities mounted) 215641126 SPPs1030 (ground mounted)724 971 1133 1085 814 1126 2952 2001 1542 1900 2963 4120 #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ######## #ССЫЛКА! TPPs (existing modernised) 10% Geothermal Total power plants 11167580 3277 -5167 -13162 5117 -3190 -5814 11372 15047 481 -7205 12847 20796 46275 #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ######## SPPs (roof mounted) 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Biо -15CHPs/TPPs27% Ліберальний сценарій20614 TPPs (existing ones) #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### 0%####### #ССЫЛКА! ######## #ССЫЛКА! Geothermal power plants 0% Storage capacities 16604 Вплив заходів з ЕЕ та ВДЕ ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #######0 ####### ####### 0% NPPs (new) Share-25 of RES Biо CHPs/TPPs ####### 2012 2015#######2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 #ССЫЛКА! Total 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050219748 2020Storage2025 capacities2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 NPPs (existing ones) #ССЫЛКА! Liberal Scenario Revolutionary Scenario Total 0 100% Рис. 5.27. Різниця в інвестиційних потребах в електроенергетиці між альтернативними та Консервативним сценаріями 0 90% Вплив заходів з ЕЕ та ВДЕ 65 Storage capacities Liberal Scenario 46 Revolutionary Scenario 0.0% 0%0.0% 0% 0 80% 2012 2050 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Biо CHPs/TPPs2050 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 #ССЫЛКА! 0% NPPs55 (existing ones) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -934 0 0 0% 0% 0% Geothermal power plants -20% -43% NPPs (new) 0 0 -6500 -13000 6500 0 0 0 -1625 -11180 -13000 0 0 0 0 70% #ССЫЛКА! TPPs45 (existing ones) 0 0 0 0 0 0 SPPs (roof mounted)0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TPPs 0(existing0 modernised)0 0 40 162 532 740 -4029 -7127 -9341 40 162 532 93 -2453 -7127 -9555 0 60% Індикатори TPPs (new, coal) 2670 -2415 -3180 -768021 -7170 -6405 SPPs (ground-5580 mounted) 3335 -4385 -6353 -7680 -7170 -6405 -5580 #ССЫЛКА! 35 Світ ОЄСР ЄС-28 Україна: Ліберальний сценарій TPPs (new, gas) -300 -480 -1966 -2016 -1280 0 WPPs (ground0 mounted) 0 -1280 -2016 -2016 -1280 0 800 0 50% 2014 2014 2014 2012 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 CHPs2035 and isolated2040 generating2045 plants 2050 -430 -16015 -333 13-417 -137 -45 -333 -3091 -812 -984 -989 -228 -132 31 25 0 HPPs (small) #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! 0.14 0.11 0.09 ####### 0.31 ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### HPPs and#ССЫЛКА! HPSPPs (large)####### ####### 0 -280 280 0 0 0 0 0 -280 0 0 280 0 0 HPPs (small) 5 -21 -35 -37-7 -65 -64 -19 -87 -36 -46 -76 -82 -47 -36 -53 0 40% #ССЫЛКА! 13,7 ####### ####### #######9,6####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### 11 HPPs and HPSPPs (large) WPPs15 (ground11 mounted) -3 3012 2165 2100 1885 3776 3254 3105 3012 12339 10715 4776 10010 14065 20504 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА!-5 #######-13 #######-6 0 30% млн т н.е. млн т н.е. SPPs (ground mounted)3 2200 1661 1587 1563 1394 1262 CHPs and1933 isolated generating plants2200 5859 5554 5852 7246 12132 19921 #ССЫЛКА! 1.89 4.16 3.08 ####### 2.33 ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### SPPs (roof#ССЫЛКА! mounted) ####### ####### 244 1714 1814 4816 4832 4440 3338 244 1714 1814 3749 3334 3023 7416 5 TPPs (new, gas) 0.35 4.5 Geothermal power plants 249 -179 -364 -127 0 108 -138 62 -179 -465 -127 12 48 294 0 20% #ССЫЛКА! 0.31 4.16 Biо CHPs/TPPs0 0 0 2377 95 175 168 162 258 TPPs (new,476 coal) 4479 630 941 678 2175 2266 8377 0.3 4 -5

Мільйонтонн нафтового еквіваленту Storage capacities 1126 1030 724 971 1133 1085 814 1126 2952 2001 1542 1900 2963 4120 TPPs (existing modernised) 0 0.0% 10% #ССЫЛКА! 3.5 Total 11167 3277 -5167 -13162 5117 -3190 -5814 11372 15047 481 -7205 12847 20796 46275 0.0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.25 3.08 3 -15 TPPs (existing ones) 0 0% #ССЫЛКА! 0.2 2.33 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Ліберальний сценарій 2.5 NPPs (new) 0.14 1.89 -25 0.15 2 NPPs (existing ones) #ССЫЛКА! 0.11 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0.09 т н.е./людину 1.5 0.1 Liberal Scenario Revolutionary Scenario Total 1 0.05

т н.е./$1000т 2010 ВВП(ПКС) 0.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Викиди парникових газів 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 2014 2014 2014 2012 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2014 2014 2014 2012 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Світ ОЄСР ЄС-28 Україна: Ліберальний сценарій Світ ОЄСР ЄС-28 Україна: Ліберальний сценарій

#ССЫЛКА! 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Витрати та інвестиції #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ########ССЫЛКА!####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ########ССЫЛКА!####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ########ССЫЛКА!####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ########ССЫЛКА!####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ########ССЫЛКА!####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### Вплив заходів з ЕЕ та ВДЕ ####### 0 ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ########ССЫЛКА!####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА!####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### 1 60% #ССЫЛКА!2012 0%#######0% #######2050####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### 1 Вплив заходів з ЕЕ та ВДЕ 0%0%0% #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! 50% 90 0% 0% 1 #ССЫЛКА! 0 0 0 0

екв. 1 80 -

2 40% #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! млрд Євро 1 млрд Євро млрд Євро 70 353 307 -37% -48% #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! 1 30% млн т СО2-е. млн т СО2-е. 0 0 0 #ССЫЛКА! 60 20% 0 0 0 0 #ССЫЛКА! -5 -5 Мільйонтонн СО 50 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! 0 10% #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40 Ліберальний сценарій -10 -10 0% 0% #ССЫЛКА! 0 0% #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 #ССЫЛКА! 30 -15 -15 #ССЫЛКА! 20 -20 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! -20 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! 10 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА!

0 -25 -25 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! КА! КА! КА! КА! КА! КА! КА! КА! КА!

#ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ -30 -30 Індикатори Світ ОЄСР ЄС-28 Україна: Ліберальний сценарій 2014 2014 2014 2012 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 #######2040 #######2045 #######2050 ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! 0.14 0.11 0.09 ####### 0.31 ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! 1.89 4.16 3.08 ####### 2.33 ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### 0.35 4.5 0.31 4.16 0.3 4 3.5 0.25 3.08 3 0.2 2.5 2.33 0.14 1.89 0.15 2 0.11

0.09 т н.е./людину 1.5 0.1 1 0.05

Витрати та інвестиції

#ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #ССЫЛКА! ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #######

90 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА!

80 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! млрд Євро 70 млрд Євро млрд Євро #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! 0 0 60

50 -5 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! -5 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА!

#ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! 40 -10 -10

30 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! -15 -15 20 -20 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! -20 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! 10 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА!

0 -25 -25 #ССЫЛКА! #ССЫЛКА! КА! КА! КА! КА! КА! КА! КА! КА! КА!

#ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ #ССЫЛ -30 -30

####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### Рис. 5.23. Виробництво електроенергії за Революційним сценарієм

400 Революційний100% сценарій Influence of EE measures 2012 2015 2020 93% 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Biо CHPs/TPPs NPPs (existing ones) 90 88 65 52 32 20 0 0 0 90% NPPs350 (new) 0 0 0 0 0 Geothermal0 power plants0 0 0 75% TPPs (existing ones) 79 58 42 20 2 1 1 1 0 80% SPPs (roof mounted) TPPs (existing modernised) 0 70%0 1 5 9 24 31 32 0 300 63% TPPs (new, coal) 0 0 19 25 26 26 26 26 0 70% SPPs (ground mounted) TPPs (new, gas) -028% 0 7 4 1 0 4 0 7 WPPs (ground mounted) CHPs250 and isolated generating plants 58% 18 8 18 18 20 21 23 25 19 60% HPPs and HPSPPs (large) 11 7 10 11 12 HPPs (small)12 12 12 12 HPPs (small) 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 WPPs200 (ground mounted) 0 1 9 4550% 80 HPPs and HPSPPs94 (large)117 131 163 39% SPPs (ground mounted) 0 0 3 10 17 CHPs and isolated27 generating40 63 96 40% SPPs 150(roof mounted) 0 0 0 3 5plants 11 17 23 36 Geothermal power plants 0 0 0 0 0 TPPs (new, gas)0 0 0 1 Biо CHPs/TPPs 0 0 7 30%8 9 10 14 18 31 TPPs (new, coal) Total 100 16% 199 162 180 200 214 247 285 330 366 Share of RES 6% 5% 16% 39%20% 58% TPPs (existing63% modernised)70% 75% 93% Influence of EE measures 0 0 21 35 46 39 19 -14 -43 Рис. 5.23. Виробництво50 електроенергії за Революційним сценарієм TPPs (existing ones) 6% 5% 10% 14% -13% 400 Революційний100% сценарій Influence of EE measures NPPs (new) 2012 2015 2020 93% 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Biо CHPs/TPPs 0% NPPs (existing ones) 0 90 88 65 52 32 20 0 0 0 90% NPPs (existing ones) NPPs350 (new) 2012 2015 02020 20250 20300 20350 20400 Geothermal2045 0 power2050 plants0 0 0 75% TPPs (existing ones) 79 58 42 20 2 1 1 1 0 80% SPPs (roof mounted) TPPs (existing modernised) 0 70%0 1 5 9 24 31 32 0 300 63% TPPs (new, coal) 0 0 19 25 26 26 26 26 0 70% SPPs (ground mounted) TPPs (new, gas) -028% 0 7 4 1 0 4 0 7 Рис. 5.24. Структура виробництва електроенергії в 2012 та WPPs 2050 (ground роках mounted) за Революційним сценарієм CHPs250 and isolated generating plants 58% 18 8 18 18 20 21 23 25 19 60% HPPs and HPSPPs (large) 11 7 10 11 12 HPPs (small)12 12 12 12 HPPs (small) 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 WPPs200 (ground mounted) 0 1 9 4550% 80 HPPs and HPSPPs94 (large)117 131 163 NPPs (existing ones) 39% SPPs (ground mounted) 0 0 3 10 17 CHPs and isolated27 generating40 63 96 40% NPPs (new) SPPs 150(roof mounted) 0 0 0 3 5plants 11 17 2% 23 36 Geothermal power plants 0 0 0 0 0 TPPs (new, gas)0 0 0 1 Biо CHPs/TPPs 0 0 7 30%8 9 10 14 18 31 TPPs (existing ones) TPPs (new, coal) Total 100 16% 199 162 180 200 214 247 285 330 366 TPPs (existing modernised) Share of RES 6% 6% 5% 16% 39%20% 58% TPPs (existing63% modernised)9%70% 5%75% 93% Influence of EE measures 0 0 21 35 46 39 19 -14 3% -43 50 TPPs (existing ones) TPPs (new, coal) 6% 5% 9% 10% 14% -13% NPPs10% (new) TPPs (new, gas) 0 0% NPPs (existing ones) 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 CHPs and isolated generating plants 45% 199 366 HPPs and HPSPPs (large) Рис. 5.24. Структура виробництва електроенергії в 2012 та 2050 роках за Революційним сценарієм bln kWh bln kWh HPPs (small) 26% 45% WPPs (ground mounted) 40% NPPs (existing ones) SPPs (ground mounted) 2% NPPs (new) TPPs (existing ones) SPPs (roof mounted) TPPs (existing modernised) 6% 9% 5% 3% Geothermal power plants 9% TPPs (new, coal) 10% Biо CHPs/TPPs 2012 TPPs2050 (new, gas) CHPs and isolated generating plants 45% Рис.199 5.25. Структура встановленої потужності366 електростанцій за РеволюційнимHPPs and HPSPPs (large) сценарієм bln kWh bln kWh HPPs (small) 26% 45% WPPs (groundРеволюційний mounted) сценарій NPPs (existing ones) 40% 2012 2015 2020 2% 20252% 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 SPPs (ground mounted)2% NPPs (new) NPPs (existing ones) 14 14 10 8 2%5 3 0 0 0 NPPs (new) 0 0 SPPs0 (roof mounted)0 0 0TPPs (existing0 ones) 0 0 TPPs (existing ones)10% 25 25 Geothermal25 power24 plants 22 18TPPs (existing12 modernised)7 1 TPPs (existing modernised) 0 0 0 1 2Рис. 5.28.6 Виробництво7 теплової7 енергії7 Biо CHPs/TPPs TPPs (new, coal) will be required,TPPs20 12(new, coal) which could26% constitute20500 up to0 35%4 of the6 total 6 18 6 6 6 6 TPPs (new, gas) 0 35%0 2 2 16%2 2TPPs (new,2 gas) 2 2 2012 2015 2020 Influence of2030 EE 2040 2050 Statistical dStatisticalConservativ d Liberal RevolutionarConservativ Liberal RevolutionaryConservativ LiberalRevolutionarConservativ LiberalRevolutionary capacityCHPs regardless 15%and isolated generating of the plants potential of8 other8 technologies.9 9 It 9 16 9CHPs and isolated8 generating8 plants8 measures Рис. 5.25. Структура встановленої потужності електростанцій за Революційним сценарієм Biomass and wastes 14 37 135 986 1165 176 1387 2285 228 2294 4933 291 2644 10192 HPPs and HPSPPs (large) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Nuclear energy "Clean"14 recoveredHPPs and heat HPSPPs (large) 2 2 7 470 142 1045 208 1213 should beHPP snoted (small) that53 this scenario doesРеволюційний not0 take сценарій0 intoNPPs0327 an (existing account ones)0 0 0 0 0 0 2012 2015 2020 2% 20252% 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Coal 620 705 3552 3676 1722 5721 4915 1613 7420 5606 1742 8709 5187 0 ) 2% NPPs (new) HPPs (small) Oil products NPPsintroduction (existing ones)WPPs (ground mountedof GW“smart”14 14grids,10 0 8 demand-side2%51 3 3 GW 0 management,14 0 24 Electricity0 12 28 35 39 52 19 75 0 0 23 0 0 52 0 0 183 0 0 234 ) NPPs (new) SPPs (ground mounted 0 0 0 00 01 0TPPs3 (existing0 ones)10 0 17Gas0 25WPPs (ground35 mounted)56 91 12830 9870 8252 7388 8593 7527 5351 6876 7495 2817 3428 7573 1460 2223 advanced technologies such as”power-to-gas”, etc., wich can Gas TPPs (existing ones)10%SPPs (roof mounted) 25 25 25 024 220 18TPPs0 (existing12 modernised)3 7 5Oil1 products10 10SPPs (ground16 mounted)21 34 6 6 6 6 6 3 3 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 TPPs (existing modernised) 0 0 0 1 2 6 7 7 7 Geothermal power plants 0 0 TPPs0 (new, coal) 0 0Nuclear energy0 0 0 0 163 160 119 119 119 120 105 71 127 90 0 127 91 0 TPPsbe (new, used coal) for balancing26% and0 ensuring0 4reliability6 6of electricity6 6 grid.6 6 SPPs (roof mounted) Biо CHPs/TPPs 0.01 0 2 2 28% 2Total 8 2 3 4 7 13652 10853 12064 12176 11630 13546Electricity 11768 11368 15270 10949 11331 16701 9589 13862 TPPs (new, gas) 0 0 2 2 16%2 2TPPs (new,2 gas) 2 2 As mentioned above35% total investments2% 11% required for Influence ofGeothermal EE measures power plants 0 434 1778 2178 4321 3938 7112 2839 CHPs 15%and isolatedStorage generating capacities plants 48% 8 8 9 09 90 9CHPs3 and isolated8 14 generating8 plants25 8 6 37 52 73 114 HPPs and HPSPPsShare (large) of RES 5 6 11%6 6 14%6 25%6 6 50% 6 63% 6 72% 81% 87% 93% Coal power sector53 under the Liberal Scenario are lower comparedHPPs and HPSPPs (large) to Biо CHPs/TPPs HPPs (small) Total 0 0 530327 0 550 0 66 0 98 0 125 0 4 151 183 229 327 ) HPPs (small) Storage capacities WPPsthe (ground Conservative mountedGW Scenario.0 At1 the 3sameGW 14 time,24 implementation28 35 39 52 "Clean" recovered ) SPPs (ground mounted 2012 0 1 3 10 17 25WPPs2050 (ground35 mounted)56 91 2 heat* SPofPs (roof the mounted) Revolutionary 0Scenario0 0 would3 5 require10SPPs (ground16 mounted)much21 more 34 Biomass and wastes Geothermal power plants 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SPPs (roof mounted) 0 Biоinvestments CHPs/TPPs Рис. 5.26. than Структура for інвестиційних 0.01two other потреб0 scenarios в електроенергетиці2 2 28% (Figure2 за Революційним 5.26,2 3 5.27 сценарієм4). 7 до 2050 р. 2% 11% Storage capacities 48% 0 0 3 14 25 37Geothermal52 power plants73 114 Share of RES 11% 14% 25% 50% 63% 72%Biо CHPs/TPPs81% 87% 93% 4% РеволюційнийNPPs сценарій (existing ones) Liberal Liberal Liberal Liberal Total 53 4% 55 66 98 125 151 183 229 327 1% NPPs (new) Storage capacities NPPs (existing ones) 467 Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative

2012 2050 Revolutionary Revolutionary Revolutionary Revolutionary NPPs (new) 3% 0 TPPs (existing ones) data Statistical data Statistical 8% Рис. 5.26. СтруктураTPPs інвестиційних (existing ones) потреб в електроенергетиці за Революційним0 TPPs сценарієм(existing modernised) до 2050 р. 2012 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 TPPs (existing modernised) 7914 4%9% РеволюційнийNPPs сценарій (existing ones) TPPs (new, coal) TPPs (new, 4%coal) 9143 1% NPPs (new) TPPs (new, gas) Figure 5.28 Heat generation NPPs (existing ones)TPPs (new, gas) 467 2080 NPPs (new) 3% 0 TPPs (existing ones) CHPs and isolated generating plants CHPs8% and isolated generating plants 5454 Units: mln toe. TPPs (existing ones) 10% 0 TPPs (existing modernised) HPPs and HPSPPs (large) 375 HPPs and HPSPPs (large) * “Clean” recovered heat is thermal energy obtained from recovery boilers, cooling installations, water heaters, etc. which function TPPs (existing9% modernised) 2207914 TPPs (new, coal) based on the following energy resources: a) heat dissemination from cooling systems of production units (blast furnaces and open- TPPs (new, coal) HPPs (small) 9143 714 TPPs (new, gas) HPPs (small) hearth furnaces, pyrite furnaces, gas generators, heating furnaces, etc.); b) physical heat of production products including collected TPPs (new, gas) WPPs (ground mounbted)ln 2080EUR 75420 34% heat at the intermediate stages of the technological process (heat of hot coke, heated metal, refined products, chemical products); CHPs and isolatedS generatingPPs (ground plants mounted)5454 CHPs and isolated generating58820 plantsWPPs (ground mounted) 10% c) waste-gas heat from industrial furnaces and boiler units, waste slag heat, etc.; d) heat of exhausted steam from the heat installations HPPs and HPSPPsSPPs (large)220 (roof mounted) 375 HPPs and HPSPPs (large)21564 SPPs (ground mounted) HPPs (small) 714 such as presses, steam drives of pumps and compensators, etc. Geothermalbted)ln EUR power plants HPPs (small) 580 WPPs (ground moun 34%75420 SPPs (roof mounted) SPPs (ground mounted)Biо CHPs/TPPs27% 58820 WPPs (ground mounted)20614 Geothermal power plants SPPs (roof mounted)Storage capacities 21564 SPPs (ground mounted)16604 plants will be also obliged to meet strict environmental criteria Geothermal powerShare plants of RES 580 SPPs (roof mounted) Biо CHPs/TPPs Biо CHPs/TPPs27% 20614 in the long run up to 2050. This will significantly reduce Total Geothermal power219748 plants Storage capacities 16604 Storage capacities Share of RES Biо CHPs/TPPs competitiveness of coal generation compared to biomass Total 219748 Storage capacities Figure 5.26Рис. 5.27. Structure Різниця в інвестиційних of investments потребах в електроенергетиці in the power між sector альтернативними under та Консервативнимbased CHPs сценаріями or other RES-based technologies, which will

Рис.the 5.27. Revolutionary Різниця в65 інвестиційних потребах Scenario в електроенергетиці up to між альтернативними2050 та Консервативним сценаріями be Storage available capacities at the market by that time. Thus, conditions of Liberal Scenario 46 Revolutionary Scenario 65 Storage capacities Liberal2020 Scenario 202546 2030 2035 2040 2045theBiо CHPs/TPPs Revolutionary2050energy Scenario sector2020 development2025 2030 will2035 change2040 significantly.2045 2050 The NPPs55 (existing ones) 2020 2025 2030 20350 20400 2045Bi0о CHPs/TPPs2050 0 02020 20250 20300 2035 2040 0 2045 20500 0 0 -934 0 0 55 results would differ considerably from those presented in this NPPs (existing ones) NPPs (new) 0 0 0 0 0 00 -65000 -130000 6500 0 0 Geothermal0 0 0power plants0 -934 0 0-1625 0 -11180 -13000 0 0 0 NPPs (new) 0 0 -6500 -13000 6500 0 Geothermal0 power plants 0 -1625 -11180 -13000 0 0 0 TPPs45 (existing ones) 0 0 0 0 0 Section0 0 if requirements0 0 of Directive0 0 2015/2193/EU0 0 0 are taken TPPs45 (existing ones) 0 0 0 0 0 0 SPPs (roof mounted)0 0 SPPs0 (roof mounted)0 0 0 0 0 TPPs (existing modernised) TPPs (existing modernised)40 162 532 40740 -4029162 -7127532 -9341740 -4029 40 -7127162 -9341532 93 -2453 40-7127 162-9555 532 93 -2453 -7127 -9555 SPPs (ground mounted) into SPPs (ground an mounted)account for scenario modeling. TPPs35 (new, coal) TPPs35 (new, coal) 2670 -2415 -3180 2670-768021 -2415-7170 -6405-3180 -5580-768021 -71703335 -6405-4385 -5580-6353 -7680 -71703335-6405 -4385-5580 -6353 -7680 -7170 -6405 -5580 TPPs (new, gas) TPPs (new, gas) -300 -480 -1966 -300-2016 -480-1280 -19660 WPPs (ground-20160 mounted)-1280 0 -12800 WPPs (ground-20160 Establishment mounted)-2016 -1280 0 0-1280 800 of -2016 conditions-2016 -1280 for0 800unimpeded CHPs and isolated CHPs generating and plantsisolated generating-430 plants-16015 -333 -43013-417 -160-137 -333-45 -333-417 -137-3091 -45-812 -333-984 -989 -228-3091 -132 -812 31 -984 -989 -228 -132 31 HPPs25 and HPSPPs (large) 0 -280 0 280 0 150 0 HPPs (small)130 0 -280 0 0 280 0 0 25 0 HPPs (small) HPPs (small) HPPs and HPSPPs5 (large)-21 -35 -37-7 0-65 -280-64 -19280 -87 0 0 -36 -46development0 -760 -82 of-47 technologies0 -36 -280-53 0 in the0 heating280 0 sector0 will first 11 HPPs and HPSPPs (large) WPPs15 (ground11 mounted)HPPs (small) 3012 52165 2100 -211885 3776-35 3254-37-7 3105 -65 -643012 12339-19 10715-87 4776 10010 -3614065 -4620504 -76 -82 -47 -36 -53 -13 -3 -6 11 of HPPs all and HPSPPssignificantly (large) reduce consumption and, thus, production SPPs (ground mounted)3 WPPs-515 (ground11 mounted)2200 1661 -3 1587 30121563 21651394 12622100 CHPs and1933 isolated1885 generating3776 plants2200 32545859 31055554 5852 72463012121321233919921 10715 4776 10010 14065 20504 SPPs (roof mounted) 244-13 1714 1814 4816 4832 4440 3338 244 1714 1814 3749 3334 3023 7416 5 SPPs (ground mounted)-5 -6 2200 1661 1587 TPPs (new, 1563gas) 1394 1262 CHPs and1933 isolated generating plants2200 5859 5554 5852 7246 12132 19921 Geothermal power plants 3 249 -179 -364 -127 0 108 -138 62 -179of heat.-465 Figure-127 125.29-5.3048 294 shows that demand for heat in 2050 SPPs (roof mounted) 244 1714 1814 4816 4832 4440 3338 244 1714 1814 3749 3334 3023 7416 Biо CHPs/TPPs 5 2377 95 175 168 162 258 TPPs (new,476 coal) 4479 630 TPPs (new,941 gas) 678 2175 2266 8377 Storage-5 capacities Geothermal power plants1126 1030 724 249971 -1791133 1085-364 814-127 01126 108Рис.2952will 5.29. -138Виробництво be2001 30%1542 теплової lower1900 62 енергії2963 than -179за 4120Ліберальним under-465 сценарієм the-127 Conservative12 48 294 Scenario. TPPs (existing modernised) Total Biо CHPs/TPPs 11167 3277 -5167 2377-13162 511795 -3190175 -5814168 16211372 15047258 TPPs (new,476481 coal) -7205 12847447920796 63046275 941 678 2175 2266 8377 -15 -5 Moreover, heat generation from biomassЛіберальний will сценарійgrow rapidly, up Storage capacities 1126 1030 724 TPPs (existing971 ones) 1133 1085 18 814 1126 2952 2001 1542 190035% 2963 4120 Рис. TPPs 5.29. (existing Виробництво modernised) теплової енергії за Ліберальним2012 2015 сценарієм2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Total 11167 3277 -5167 NPPs (new)-13162 5117 -3190to 2.6-5814 mln toe in11372 2050.15047 481 -7205 12847 20796 46275 -25 Biomass and wastes 14 37 986 1169 1387 1963 2294 2387 2644 -15 TPPs (existing ones) 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 NPPs (existing ones) "Clean"16 recovered heat (CRH)* 0 1 2 Ліберальний30% 4 сценарій7 Influence15 of EE measures142 196 208 18 35% 30% Total Coal NPPs (new) 2012620 2015705 20203676 20254511 20304915 20355250 2040 5606 2045 57402050 5187 -25Liberal Scenario Revolutionary Scenario Biomass and wastes 14 37 986 1169 1387 1963 2294 2387 2644 Electricity 19 75 0 0 0 Nuclear0 energy 0 0 0 "Clean" NPPs1614 recovered (existing ones)heat (CRH)* 0 1 2 30% 4 7 Influence15 of EE measures142 196 208 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Gas 12830 9869 738824% 604530% 5351 4059 2817 2343 1460 Coal 620 705 3676 4511 4915 5250 5606 5740 5187 Figure 5.27 Difference in investment demands in the power Oil products 6-20% 22%6 6 -43%4 25% 3 1 0 0 0 Liberal Scenario Revolutionary Scenario Electricity Total 19 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nuclear1412 energy 163 160 119 114 105 Nuclear Oil productsenergy78 90 91 91 sector between the alternative and Conservative Scenarios Gas 12830 9869 738824% 6045 5351 4059 2817 2343 1460 Total** 13652 10853 12176 11848 11768 11366 10949 10756 9589 Oil products 6-20% 22%6 6 -43%4 25% 3 1 0 0 0 Units: EUR bln. Share10 of RES (including CRH) 0.1% 17% 0.4% 8% 10% 20% 12% 17% 22% 24% 30% Nuclear12 energy 163 160 119 114 105 Oil products Gas78 90 91 91 Influence of EE measures 0 0 -113 725 1778 2810 4321 4993 7112 Total** 13652 10853 12176 11848 11768 11366 10949 10756 9589 20% 43% 17% 20% Share10 of8 RES (including CRH) 0.1% 0.4% 8% 10% 12%15% Gas17% Electricity22% 24% 30% Clearly, if a decision is taken on the “energy transition” Influence of EE measures 12%0 0 -113 725 1778 2810 4321 4993 7112 10% 20% 43% to RES, it will be necessary to carry out more detailed and 8 6 15% Electricity Coal 8% 12% 10% comprehensive analysis on potential development of the 6 10% 4 Coal "Clean" recovered heat (CRH)* 8% 10% energy system of Ukraine. In particular, development of the 5% 4 2 0.4% "Clean" recovered heat (CRH)* advanced technologies should be taken into account. It is 0.1% Biomass and wastes 5% likely that new technologies will be available at the market in 2 0 0.4% 0% 0.1% Biomass and wastes the next 10-15 years, which will allow significantly reduce the 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Share of RES (including CRH) 0 0% cost of “energy transition” and more equal distribution of the 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Share of RES (including CRH) investments over time. In addition, it is necessary to examine possibility to use interstate flow of electricity to achieve targets Рис.Figure 5.30. Структура 5.29 виробництва Heat generation теплової енергії за Ліберальнимunder the сценарієм Liberal Scenario Рис.* 5.30.See explanation Структура виробництваunder the previous теплової figure енергії за Ліберальним сценарієм of the Revolutionary Scenario. Units: mln toe.

5.3 Heat Generation 1% 5% 1% Biomass and wastes 1% 5% 1% Biomass and wastes Under conditions of the Conservative and Liberal Scenarios, "Clean" recovered 15% heat (CRH)* the share of coal generation in the district heating supply 28% "Clean" recovered 15% heat (CRH)*Coal increases greatly (Figure 5.28). This is due to the fact that gas 28% Coal prices grow considerably compared to coal prices in the long 13.7 9.6 Electricity run (see Section 2.5 on price forecasts in the energy market). 13mln.7 toe 9mln.6 toe 2% Electricity It should also be noted that logistical issues on coal supply to mln toe mln toe 2% Gas 54% Gas boiler houses have not been considered, which could influence 94% Oil products 94% 54% the results. Moreover, Ukraine approved strict environmental Oil products liabilities on the limitation of emissions from large combustion 2012 2050 Nuclear energy plants (Directive 2010/75/EU), but the implementation of 2012 2050 Nuclear energy Directive 2015/2193/EU for the medium-sized combustion Figure 5.30 Structure of heat generation under the Liberal plants (1-50 MW) is not planned yet. Therefore, the latter was Scenario not taken into account under conditions of scenarios. However, * See explanation under the Figure 5.28 the implementation of Directive 2015/2193/EU is mandatory According to results of modeling under the Revolutionary for all EU countries. Thus, it can be expected that Ukraine will Scenario, the use of biomass and wastes should become also be obliged to comply with requirements of this Directive a high-priority in the heat supply sector and coal use should be following further integration of Ukraine’s energy sector to the phased out completely to achieve the set targets (Figure 5.31). EU market. Hence, it is likely that medium-sized combustion It may also be feasible to develop district electric heating. 45 Рис. 5.31. Виробництво теплової енергії за Революційним сценарієм

18 Революційний90% сценарій Influence of EE measures 2012 2015 2020 202582% 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Moreover, it is important that “energy transition” to RES Biomass16 and wastes 14 37 1165 1696 80%2285 3335 4933 6835 10192will be implemented based on maximum possible domestically "Clean" recovered heat (CRH)* 0 1 2 285 470 Nuclear898 energy1045 1210 1213 CoalРис. 5.31. Виробництво теплової енергії620 за Революційним705 172264% сценарієм-167017% 1613 1694 1742 1708 0produced technologies. To ensure development of advanced Electricity14 19 75 23 37 70% 52 111 183 235 234 Oil products Gas 18 12830 -21%9869 8593 7314 Революційний6876 90%5130 сценарій Influence3428 of2615 EE measures2223technologies in Ukraine, it is important to successfully Oil products12 6 2012 653%2015 6 2020 4 60%202582% 2 20302 20351 20400 20450 2050 Nuclear energy 163 160 119 97 71 44 0 0 0complete all reforms in the energy and banking sectors, as well Biomass16 and wastes 14 37 1165 1696 80% 2285Gas 3335 4933 6835 10192 Total** 10"Clean" recovered heat (CRH)* 13652 108530 116301 111032 50%11368285 11214470 Nuclear11331898 energy126041045 138621210as considerably1213 simplify all administrative and tax procedures Share Coal of RES (including CRH) 0.1% 6200.4% 70510% 172264%18% -16701724%% 161338% 169453% 174264% 82%1708 0 38% Electricity Influence Electricity14 of EE measures 0 19 0 75434 147023 217837 70%296252 3938111 3144183 2839235for doing234 business. 8 40% 21% Oil products 17% Gas 12830 -21%9869 8593 7314 6876 5130 3428 2615 2223 Oil products12 6 653% 6 4 60% Coal2 2 1 0 0 Thus, results of modeling of the energy sector 6 24% 30% Nuclear energy 163 160 119 97 71 Gas44 0 development0 0 scenarios indicate that Ukraine has absolutely Total** 18% 13652 10853 11630 11103 11368 11214 11331 12604 13862 4 10 20% 50% "Clean" recovered heat (CRH)* Share of RES (including10% CRH) 0.1% 0.4% 10% 18% 24% 38% 53% 64%sufficient82% renewable energy potential, which is required for 38% Influence of EE measures 0 0 434 1470 2178 Electricity2962 3938 3144 2839 2 8 10% 40% 21% implementation17% of the Revolutionary Scenario and meeting 0.1% 0.4% Biomass and wastes Coal potential demand for energy resources and services even in 0 6 24% 0% 30% Share of RES (including CRH) 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 the case of maintaining a high share of the energy-intensive 18% 4 20% "Clean" recovered heat (CRH)*industry (metallurgy, chemical industry, etc.) in the country. Figure 5.31 Heat10% generation under the Revolutionary Scenario It should be noted that only those RES-based technologies Рис. 5.32.2 Структура виробництва теплової енергії за Революційним сценарієм 10% * See explanation0.1% under0.4% the Figure 5.28 Biomass and wastes Units: mln toe. for implementation of the renewable potential and meeting 0 0% Share of RES (including CRH) 2012Heat2015 generated2020 2025 from2030 2035biomass2040 and2045 wastes2050 could account energy demand of society were analysed, which are already for about1% 5% 73% in total heat generation including Biomass and wastes centralized available at the Ukrainian market. What is most important their

heating and industrial needs. At the same "Clean"time, recovered the heat share of production can be either partially or fully located in Ukraine. Рис. 5.32. Структура виробництва теплової енергії16% за Революційним сценарієм heat generated from2% gas will decrease from(CRH)* 94% in 2012 to At the same time, the Liberal Scenario, which envisions 16% in 2050 (Figure 5.32). Coal perfect competition at national energy market demonstates 13.7 9% 13.9 1% 5% Electricity Biomass and wastes competitiveness potential of renewable energy compared mln toe mln toe to traditional energy, even without target policy for RES 73% Gas "Clean" recovered heat development. 16% (CRH)* 94% 2% Oil products Coal 5.5 Relative Indicators of Energy Sector Sevelopment 13.7 9% 13.9 2012 2050 Nuclear energy Electricity mln toe mln toe Taking into account macroeconomic assumptions provided in Gas previous sections, particularly, on annual average GDP growth 73% rates during 2016-2050 (4% per year), as well as calculated 94% Oil products indicators of the total primary energy supply under the Liberal Scenario, it can be expected that the primary energy 2012 2050 Nuclear energy Рис.intensity 5.34. Первинна of енергоємність GDP in Ukraine ВВП за Ліберальним will reach сценарієм the level of countries Figure 5.32 Structure of heat generation under the of Organisation forWorld EconomicOECD 28Co-operation EU Ukraine: Liberal and Scenario Development 0.35 Revolutionary Scenario 0,33 2014 2014 2014 2012 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Primaryonly energy in 2050. intensity, However,0,31 integrated indicator for 28 countries of * See explanation under Figure 5.28 toe/$1000Рис. 5.34. 2010 Первинна GDP (PPP) енергоємність0.14 ВВП за0,29 Ліберальним0.11 0.09 сценарієм0.33 0.31 0.29 0.28 0.22 0.17 0.15 0.13 0.12 0.11 the0.3 European Union will not be 0,28reached by 2050 (Figure 5.34). Primary energy intensity, World OECD 28 EU Ukraine: Liberal Scenario 0.35 toe/person 0,33 1.892014 4.162014 3.082014 2.692012 2.332014 2.092015 2.322020 2.352025 2.292030 20352.42 20402.52 20452.61 20502.71 It should be noted that a range of currently available Primary0.25 energy intensity, 0,31 toe/$1000 2010 GDP (PPP) 0.14 0,290.11 0.090,22 0.33 0.31 0.29 0.28 0.22 0.17 0.15 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.3 0,28 techhologies were considered for modeling of heat sector Primary energy intensity, toe/person0.2 1.89 4.16 3.08 2.69 2.33 2.09 2.32 2.35 2.29 2.42 2.52 2.61 2.71 development under the Liberal and Revolutionary Scenarios 0,17 0.25 0,14 including biomass-based technologies, heat recovery from 0,22 0,15 0.15 0,13 technological processes and electric heating technologies. In 0,12 0.2 0,11 0,11 0,09 0,17 the long run, new RES-based technologies can be developed, 0.1 0,14 0,15 in particular, heat storage technologies which will significantly 0.15 0,13 0,12 0.05 0,11 0,11 change heating sector future. 0,09 0.1 0 5.4 Total Primary Energy Supply 0.05 2014 2014 2014 2012 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 World OECD 28 EU Ukraine: Liberal Scenario Total primary energy supply (TPES) under the Conservative 0 Scenario will be constantly increasing after 2015. In contrast, 2014 2014 2014 2012 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 it can stabilize at the level of 80-85% compared to 2012 levels, World OECD 28 EU Ukraine: Liberal Scenario namely 10 mln toe under the Liberal Scenario (Figure 5.33). Figure 5.34 Primary energy intensity of GDP under the Liberal According to model estimates, TPES will be by 57% lower under Рис.Scenario 5.35. Первинна енергоємність на людину за Ліберальним сценарієм the Revolutionary Scenario compared to Conservative Scenario Source: prepared by authors based on the results of modeling and IEA data (Key World Energy Statistics). in 2050. The share of RES under the Revolutionary Scenario can Units: toe/$1000 (2010) GDP(PPP). Рис.4.5 5.35. Первинна енергоємність на людину за Ліберальним сценарієм reach 30% in 2035 and 76% in 2050. Domestic production of 4,16 energy resources could be more than 90% of TPES, which will 4 Рис.considerably 5.33. Загальне постачання improve первинної economic енергії and energy security. 4.5 3.5 4,16 3,08 4 Influence of EE measures Biofuel and wastes Solar energy 3 Wind energy 2012 Hydroelectric2015 power 2020 Nuclear energy 2030 2040 2,69 2050 2,52 2,61 2,71 Statistical dStatisticalConservativ d Liberal RevolutionarConservativ Liberal Revolutionary3.5Conservativ LiberalRevolutionarConservativ2,33 LiberalRevolutionary2,32 2,35 2,29 2,42 Crude oil and oil products Gas Coal 2.5 Coal 42718 27344 50042 37141 35081 68974 37604 27427 80993 43572 3,0826905 90027 43365 3706 2,09 Gas180 43018 26055 33944 31671 33355 38546 27147 24394 3 436601,89 24008 19196 42761 20626 12261 Crude oil and oil products 11609 10551 12252 11581 11293 14229 12473 84402 16078 11797 52222,6917753 8912 1224 2,52 2,61 2,71 Nuclear160 energy 23653 22985 16951 16951 16951 13989 12183 8551 12537 8865 21 125542,33 8902 2,32 0 2,35 2,29 2,42 Electricity -987 -116 -253 -190 -47 -354 -84 -962.5 -431 -36 -57 -405 2 2 140 1.5 2,09 Hydroelectric power 901 464 907 906 905 1117 1111 1071 11301,89 1115 1110 1140 1118 1114 120 2 Wind energy 25 94 258 772 772 378 1876 68361 396 2777 10058 430 3641 13996 Solar energy 28 40 24 252 252 72 1033 1946 42 2747 4881 42 4377 11342 100 Biofuel and wastes 1522 1465 2112 4026 5857 2221 4419 108081.5 2828 7864 17818 3944 14496 29136 Total***80 122487 89519 116238 103110 104419 139172 97761 893760.5 157233 102708 85154 168245 105438 72782 Influence of EE measures 13128 11819 41411 49796 1 54525 72078 62807 95463 60 0 40 0.5 2014 2014 2014 2012 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 20 World OECD 28 EU Ukraine: Liberal Scenario 0 0 Figure2014 5.352014 Primary2014 2012 energy2014 2015 intensity2020 2025 per2030 person2035 2040 under2045 2050 the World OECD 28 EU Ukraine: Liberal Scenario Liberal Liberal Liberal Liberal Liberal Scenario Source: prepared by authors based on the results of modeling and IEA data (Key World Energy Statistics). Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative

Revolutionary Revolutionary Revolutionary Revolutionary Units: toe/person. Statistical data Statistical data Statistical 2012 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 The indicator of total primary energy supply per person Figure 5.33 Total primary energy supply in Ukraine is higher than average one for the world but much Units: mln toe. lower than in the countries of Organisation for Economic 46 Рис. 5.38. Викиди парникових газів Co-operation and Development and slightly lower than for the Transport Supply sector Households 2012 2015 Industry2020 2030 2040 2050 European Union countries (Figure 5.35). Electricity and heat productionEstimated sector EstimatedConservativ ServiceLiberal sectorRevolutionarConservativ Liberal RevolutionaryConservativ LiberalRevolutionarConservativ LiberalRevolutionary Agriculture 6 6 8 6 6 9 13 6 10 18 4 11 16 0 Agriculture At the same time, primary energy intensity of GDP Service sector 8 8 10 11 9 14 10 5 15 10 3 16 11 1 in Ukraine can reach current level of energy intensity of the Electricity600 and heat production sector 105 74 117 79 81 162 68 58 194 76 74 213 72 14 Industry 101 73 89 86 86 119 99 79 148 108 66 169 116 45 countries of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Households500 37 36 37 33 33 39 25 21 41 21 12 44 14 0 Supply sector 73 40 66 54 51 87 52 43 103 60 40 110 61 23 Development in 2040, and the level of the countries of the Transport400 21 19 20 20 18 25 24 15 28 22 9 30 17 1 European Union in 2045 under the Revolutionary Scenario Total 353 255 347 289 284 455 290 227 540 315 207 592 307 85 300 Рис.(Figure 5.36 Первинна 5.36 ).енергоємність ВВП за Революційним сценарієм World OECD 28 EU Ukraine: Revolutionary Scenario200 0.35 0.33 0.31 2014 2014 2014 2012 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 100 Final0.3 energy intensity, 0.29 0.29 toe/$1000 2010 GDP (PPP) 0.14 0.11 0.09 0.33 0.31 0.29 0.29 0.21 0.16 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.07 0 Final energy intensity, 0.25 toe/person 1.89 0.21 4.16 3.08 1.47 2.33 1.11 1.23 1.25 1.24 1.27 1.30 1.29 1.26 Liberal Liberal Liberal Liberal Рис.0.2 5.36 Первинна енергоємність ВВП за Революційним сценарієм World OECD 0.1628 EU Ukraine: Revolutionary Scenario 0.35 Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative 0.14 0.33 Revolutionary Revolutionary Revolutionary Revolutionary 0.15 0.31 2014 2014 0.132014 2012 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Final energy intensity,0.11 0.29 0.29 0.11 0.3 0.09 toe/$1000 2010 GDP (PPP)0.09 0.14 0.11 0.09 0.33 0.31 0.29 Estimated authors by 0.29Estimated authors by 0.21 0.16 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.07 0.1 0.07 Final energy intensity, 0.25 2012 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 toe/person0.05 1.89 0.21 4.16 3.08 1.47 2.33 1.11 1.23 1.25 1.24 1.27 1.30 1.29 1.26 0.2 Figure 5.38 Greenhouse gas emissions 0 0.16 Units: mln t CO -equivalent. 0.14 Рис. 5.39. Викиди2 парникових газів за Ліберальним сценарієм 0.15 2014 2014 2014 2012 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350.13 2040 2045 2050 0.11 0.11 Ліберальний сценарій World OECD 280.09 EU Ukraine: Revolutionary Scenario 0.09 Influence of EE measures Transport 0.1 0.07 Supply sector 2012 2015 2020 Households2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Agriculture Industry 6 6 6 Electricity9 and13 heat production16 sector18 19 16 Service sector 8 8 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 Figure0.05 5.36 Primary energy intensity of GDP under the Service sector Agriculture Рис. 5.37. Первинна енергоємність на людину за Революційним сценарієм Electricity and heat % comparedproduction tosector 1990 105 74 79 73 68 77 76 75 72 Industry 101 73 86 98 99 103 108 113 116 Revolutionary Scenario 700 60% 0 Households 37 36 33 30 25 24 21 17 14 Sou4.5rce: prepared by authors based on the results of modeling and IEA data (Key World Energy Statistics). Supply sector 73 40 54 56 52 59 60 60 61 Units: toe/$10002014 (2010)4.162014 GDP2014 (PPP). 2012 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Transport 21 19 20 22 24 24 22 18 17 600 4 Total 353 255 289 297 290 313 315 50% 313 307 World OECD 28 EU Ukraine: Revolutionary Scenario % compared 43%to 1990 43% 31% 35% 36% 36% 38% 39% 38% 38% 3.5 The indicator of the total primary energy supply per Influence of EE measures 0 0 5838% 111 164 187 225 257 285 500 38% 38% 3.08 39% person in Ukraine is expected to be quite stable under the 36% 36% 40% Рис.Revolutionary3 5.37. Первинна енергоємність Scenario на Figure( людину за5.37 Революційним). сценарієм Рис. 5.39. Викиди парникових31% газів за35% Ліберальним сценарієм 2.33 400 Ліберальний сценарій 2.5 Influence of EE measures Transport-37% -48% 4.5 Supply sector 2012 2015 2020 Households2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 30%2050 1.89 4.16 Agriculture 6 6 6 9 13 16 18 19 16 2 Industry Electricity and heat production sector 4 Service300 sector Service sector 8 8 11 Agriculture10 10 10 10 11 11 1.47 1.26 Electricity and heat % comparedproduction tosector 1990 105 74 79 73 68 77 76 75 72 1.5 1.23 1.25 1.24 1.27 1.30 1.29 Industry 101 73 86 98 99 103 108 113 116 700 60% 20% 3.5 1.11 Households 37 36 33 30 25 24 21 17 14 200 1 3.08 Supply sector 73 40 54 56 52 59 60 60 61 3 Transport 21 19 20 22 24 24 22 18 17 600 0.5 Total 353 255 289 297 290 313 315 50% 313 10%307 2.5 2.33 % compared100 43%to 1990 43% 31% 35% 36% 36% 38% 39% 38% 38% Influence of EE measures 0 0 5838% 111 164 187 225 257 285 0 1.89 500 39% 38% 38% 2 36% 2014 2014 2014 2012 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 35% 36% 40% 1.47 0 31% 0% 1.5 1.23 1.25 1.24 1.27 1.30 1.29 1.26 400 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 World OECD 28 EU 1.11Ukraine: Revolutionary Scenario -37% -48% 1 30% Figure300 5.39 Greenhouse gas emissions under the Liberal 0.5 Рис. 5.40. Структура викидів парникових газів за Ліберальним сценарієм Scenario 20% 200 0 Units: mln t CO2-equivalent

2014 2014 2014 2012 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 10% 100 The structure of GHG emissions under the Liberal World OECD 28 EU Ukraine: Revolutionary Scenario Scenario (Figure 5.40) will undergo changes in 2050. Considering 0 2% 2% 0% 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20405% 5%2045 2050 Agriculture Figure 5.37 Primary energy intensity per person under the that this scenario envisions significant 4%development of Revolutionary Scenario renewable energy, amount of GHG emissions from power and Рис. 5.40. Структура викидів6% парникових газів за Ліберальним сценарієм Service sector Source: prepared by authors based on the results of modeling and IEA data (Key World Energy Statistics). heat generation sectors will significantly decrease. At the same Units: toe/person. time, due to the low level of RES in industry, the share of GHG 21% 20% Electricity and heat emissions from industrial30% sector will increase. 23% production sector The gap between specified indicators of primary energy 353 307 Industry mln2% t 5% mln t intensity in Ukraine and economically developed countries 2% 5% 5% Agriculture СО2-еquivalent СО2-еquivalent4% demonstrates that this problem lays not only in energy 10% Households dimension (inefficient and wasteful use of energy resources), 6% Service sector 38% Supply sector but also in economic dimension. It is necessary not only to 21% 29% 20% Electricity and heat carry more in-depth research on “energy transition” of Ukraine 30% 23% production sector 353 307 Transport to the renewable energy sources, but also study possible Industry 2012mln t 5% mln2050 t СО -еquivalent transformation pathways of the modern socio-economic 2 СО2-еquivalent 10% Households model of Ukraine into the one, which will promote greening of 38% Supply sector the energy sector and welfare improvement of the population 29% in Ukraine. Transport 2012 2050 5.6 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Figure 5.40 Structure of greenhouse gas emissions under the Under the Conservative Scenario, GHG emissions96 will be Liberal Scenario constantly increasing and in 2050 they can reach 73% of the level observed in 1990 (Figure 5.38). At the same time, in 2030 Results of modeling show that the achievement they will amount approximately to 56% of the level observed of targets under the Revolutionary Scenario will result in in 1990, which is lower than the targeted indicator specified significant reduction of GHG emissions, which in 2050 can in the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Ukraine make up only 10% of the level observed in 1990 (Figure 5.41). to the Paris Agreement. This confirms once again that the Under this scenario, GHG emissions from industrial selected target for NDC of Ukraine is not ambitious and should sector will account for over half and households will not be be revised. responsible for any GHG emissions. The shares of agriculture, Implementation of the Liberal Scenario will allow service and transport sectors will be within the range of 0.5- stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) at the level of 35- 1.5% (Figure 5.42). 38% compared to the level observed in 1990 (Figure 5.39).

96 GHG emissions include emissions from the “Energy sector” and “Industrial Processes Sector” according to the classification by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 47 Рис. 5.43. Щорічні витрати на функціонування енергетичної системи Рис. 5.41. Викиди парникових газів за Революційним сценарієм

Influence of EE measures Революційний Transport сценарій Subsidies (feed-in-tariff) 2012 2015 2020 Capital investments in intermediate2030 technologies 2040 2050 Maintenance expenses (final energyEstimated consumption Estimated technologies)Conservativ Liberal Revolutionar Capital investmentsConservativ in finalLiberal energyRevolutionary consumptionConservativ technologiesLiberalRevolutionarConservativ LiberalRevolutionary Supply sector 2012 2015 2020 Households2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Cost of2050 fuel 20408 13507 12331 10334 10866 15069 9569 8322 18532 9180 6150 20803 7296 4123 Agriculture Industry 6 6 6 Electricity6 and heat6 production5 sector4 3 Capital Maintenance investments0.4 expensesin electricity (electricity and heat and heat generation)0 8 643 1856 Capital 643investments2861 in electricity4317 and heat2861 production5799 technologies6300 5799 7756 7087 7756 Service sector Service sector 8 8 9 Agriculture7 5 3 3 2 Maintenance Cost 1of expensesfuel (electricity and hea 1515 1592 2039 2336 2260 3744 3665 3698 6167 4768 5049 8039 5718 7081 Capital investments in final energy consum 0 3326 11513 12411 12408 26543 28282 30593 32835 33290 36707 36630 35318 41277 Electricity and heat % production compared sectorto 1990 105 74 81 70 58 68 74 71 Maintenance14 expenses (final energy consu 2880 3067 5582 5429 5392 14196 13803 14430 23294 20304 21565 28458 23633 26155 90 Industry 101 73 86 82 79 76 66 56 Capital investments45 in intermediate techno 0 21 367 445 460 1619 1420 1729 3089 2629 2807 3751 3083 3345 600 60% HouseholdsРис. 5.41. Викиди парникових газів за Революційним37 сценарієм36 33 28 21 17 12 6 Subsidies80 (feed-in-tariff)0 0 9 180 1846 2179 176 3491 8645 Total 26418 22859 34882 36372 37265 69454 67257 77164 98426 80688 86856 115521 86870 101579 Supply sector 73 40 51 46 43 44 40 37 23 Influence of EE measures Революційний Transport сценарій -86% 70 Transport Supply sector 2012 212015 202019 Households202518 2030 17 2035 152040 204512 2050 9 5 1 Total Agriculture500 Industry 6 353 6 2556 Electricity2846 and heat6 257 production5 227sector4 2253 0.4207 50% 181 60 85 % compared Service sector 43%to 1990 Service sector 8 43% 8 31%9 Agriculture35%7 531% 3 28% 3 28%2 25%1 22% 50 10% Influence Electricity of andEE heat measures % production compared sectorto 1990 105 074 810 7063-55%58 151 68 22874 27571 14333 390 507 Industry 101 73 86 82 79 76 66 56 45 600 60% 40 Households400 35% 37 36 33 28 21 17 12 6 0 40% Supply sector 73 40 51 46 43 44 -86% 40 37 23 30 Transport 31% 21 31%19 18 17 15 12 9 5 1 Total500 353 255 28428% 257 28%227 225 207 50% 181 85 20 % compared 43%to 1990 43% 31% 35% 31% 28% 28% 25% 22% 10% 300 -55% 25% 30% 10 Influence of EE measures 0 0 63 151 228 275 33322% 390 507 400 35% 40% 0 31% 31% 200 28% 28% 20% Liberal Liberal Liberal Liberal 300 25% 30% 10%

22% Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Revolutionary Revolutionary Revolutionary Revolutionary

100200 20% 10% 10% Estimated authors by Estimated authors by 2012 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 100 10% 0 0% 97 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Figure 5.43 Annual costs for functioning of the energy system 0 0% Units: bln EUR. Figure 20125.41 2015Greenhouse2020 2025 gas2030 emissions2035 2040 under2045 the2050 Revolutionary Рис.Scenario 5.42. Структура викидів парникових газів за Революційним сценарієм Рис. 5.42. Структура викидів парникових газів за Революційним сценарієм In the long run, transition from the current energy supply Units: mln t CO -equivalent. 2 system with high shares of costs for fuel and maintenance 0,5% 0,5% 2% 2% 1% 1,5% expenses to the system which will be characterized by the 2% 2% 1% 1,5% high capital investments and a relatively lower share of costs Agriculture Agriculturefor fuel is expected, as technical life time of the majority of 6%6% 17% 17% Service sector existing energy capacities is either exhausted or already comes 27% Service sector 97 21% 27% to its end. 21% 30% Electricity and heat 353 30% 85 production sector Electricity and heatHowever, annual costs for functioning of the energy 353mln t mln t 85 Industry productionsystem sector under alternative scenarios will be lower, than under СО2-еquivalent СО2-еquivalent 10% mln t mln t Households Industrythe Conservative Scenario according to modeling results. Thus, СО2-еquivalent СО2-еquivalent it seems that cost savings for fuel purchasing cover the costs to 10% Supply sector Households 29% 53% Витратиbe таinvested інвестиції in new technologies (Figure 5.44). Transport Liberal Scenario Revolutionary Scenario Supply sector Subsidies (feed-in-tariff) Capital investments in intermediate technologies 53% 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 201229% 2050 Cost of fuel Maintenance expenses (final energy consumption-1996 -3723 technologies)-5500 -7103 Costs-9352 of transportation,-11396 -13507 supply and intermediate-1465 technologies-4239 -6747 -9546 -12382 -14842 -16680 Capital investments in electricity and heat 1213 1554 1457 812 502 83 -669 1314 3226 4129 4041 4596 4811 7045 Capital investments in final energy consumption technologies Maintenance expenses (electricity and heat generation) Transport Maintenance expenses (electricity and hea 297 231 -79 -860 -1399 -1817 -2321 222 288 -46 -715 -1118 -1311 -958 Capital investments Capital investments in final energy in electricity consum and heat898 production1208 technologies1739 1406 Cost 455of fuel -658 -1312 894 2244 4051 4870 3872 2953 4647 Figure 5.42 Structure of greenhouse gas emissions under the Costs of transportation, supply and interm -513 -1330 -2537 -3712 -4494 -5000 -5350 -484 -1319 -2490 -3676 -4527 -5011 -5287 Maintenance Total expenses (final energy consu -153 0 -393 -1518 -2990 -4137 -4824 -191 30 233 -475 -1729 -2411 -2303 Revolutionary2012 Scenario 2050 Capital investments in intermediate techno 78 7 -198 -398 -460 -555 -667 93 311 111 -94 -282 -439 -406 Subsidies (feed-in-tariff) Liberal Scenario1666 3126 3315 0 0 0 Revolutionary0 Scenario 1999 7128 8468 0 0 0 0 Total 1489 1073 -2198 -10309 -17738 -23480 -28651 2383 7668 7710 -3233 -11571 -16249 -13942 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 20

5.7 Total Costs and Investments 15

10 Figure 5.43 shows that total annual costs for operating of the 5 energy system, which include investments in technologies 0 (modernization, purchasing of new ones), maintenance -5 -10

expenses, costs of purchasing, transportation and supply -15 of fuel, etc., can grow rapidly after 2020. Investments in -20 technologies of the final energy consumption (for example, -25 household appliances, different transport vehicles, lighting -30 fixtures, etc.) will account for significant share in investment Figure 5.44 Difference between the annual costs for functioning structure because they have a significantly lower life time of the energy system under the alternative and Conservative compared to, for example, electricity and heat generation scenarios technologies, and their number is large. Units: bln EUR.

Одиниця виміру: млрд. євро.

97 For the most energy technologies (thermal power plants, final consumption appliances, etc.), capital expenditures accrue over the entire period of their operation, and annual cash flow is calculated taking into account the period of use of a technology and the cost of capital. These annual payments combined with relevant maintenance expenses make up total costs of the energy system. Annual investment costs of technologies put into operation in the previous periods are not calculated and, thus, are not included in the target function. 48 ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF UKRAINE'S ENERGY SECTOR DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS UNTIL 2050

Macroeconomic Impacts Sectoral 6 Impacts for Households Impacts ock t s : Shuer o

49Phot 6.1 Macroeconomic Impacts to subsequent periods when increased expenditures on energy efficiency, energy saving, energy substitution and This Section presents an assessment of social and economic renewable energy development are compensated by energy impacts of the Ukraine’s energy sector development under consumption savings. Liberal and Revolutionary Scenarios, which are discussed in On the one hand, an assumption of own funds use previous Sections of this study. reduces aggregate expenses on the implementation of energy Energy policy measures are studied under the reference policies, as it eliminates the need to attract external funds and macroeconomic scenario, with 4% average GDP growth rate pay interest. On the other hand, it implies a more stringent until 2050 (see Section 2.3). Energy policies are imposed on commodity price increase and a change in the final and the reference scenario and their impact on macroeconomic intermediate consumption structures. and sectoral indicators is examined. In general, implementation of the Revolutionary To provide an assessment of economic impacts for these Scenario has higher GDP and output growth rates compared two scenarios a dynamic Ukrainian CGE model with extended to the Liberal Scenario (Figure 6.1, 6.2). This is explained by energy block is used. TIMES-Ukraine and Ukrainian CGE models the significantly higher gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) are unified using the same assumptions on aggregate GDP level within the Revolutionary Scenario Figure( 6.3). growth rates. TIMES-Ukraine model estimates the additional Changes Liberalin GFCF, Scenario % to reference scenario Revolutionary Scenario 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 investments and changes in energy consumption by sectors 14 Liberal Scenario 0.31 0.59 0.84 1.94 2.78 3.45 3.99 4.42 4.74 used to define energy scenarios in the Ukrainian CGE model. Revolutionary Scenario 0.8 1.4 1.9 4.3 6.2 7.9 9.4 10.6 11.7 All estimates presented in this Section are provided 12 relatively to the Conservative scenario. That is, any changes in macroeconomic, sectoral, or other indicators should be 10 interpreted as deviations from the Reference (Conservative) 8 Scenario in the corresponding year. Reference Scenario is based on the baseline GDP growth rates, but does not 6 include implementation of energy policies defined in the Liberal or Revolutionary Scenarios. Therefore, this Section 4 provides an impact assessment of energy efficiency, energy 2 saving, renewable energy development and other measures on macroeconomic, sectoral and social indicators, all other 0 conditions being equal (current fiscal and monetary policy 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 remains the same, no additional sectoral reforms, etc.). Figure 6.2 Impact of the energy policies on the output Considering relative nature of impacts for both Units: % to the Reference (Conservative) Scenario. Changes in GFCF, % to reference scenario scenarios, negative values of reported indicators do not Liberal Scenario Revolutionary Scenario 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 necessarily imply a decrease in their absolute values under Liberal Scenario 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 12 the analyzed energy policies, and in most cases reflect the Revolutionary Scenario 11.55 11.84 11.74 11.62 11.38 11.29 11.27 11.27 11.29 slowdown in the growth rates of the corresponding indicators. Одиниця виміру: відсотки. Modeling results show that implementation of the 10 Liberal and Revolutionary Scenarios is characterized by positive macroeconomic impacts. This is especially the case 8 in the medium term and long term, starting from 2019-2020 (Figure 6.1). Such effects could be explained by dynamics 6 of investment processes. In particular, GFCF increases substantially during the first years, but the level of energy 4 efficiency is growing at a much slower pace, especially in case of energy intensive sectors. At the same time, in the medium 2 term positive contribution of energy efficiency improvements and substitution exceeds investment costs of the energy policy 0 scenarios. 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Changes Liberalin GFCF, Scenario % to reference scenario Revolutionary Scenario Figure 6.3 Impact of the energy policies on the gross fixed 18 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 capital2035 formation2040 2045 2050(GFCF) Liberal Scenario 0.8 1.4 1.9 4.3 6.2 7.9 9.4 10.6 11.7 16 Revolutionary Scenario 1.12 2.03 2.91 6.63 9.52 Units:11.78 % to the13.51 Reference14.76 (Conservative)15.55 Scenario. 14 The need to accumulate additional investments serves 12 as a key success factor and, at the same time, as a significant 10 risk for the effective implementation of energy policies. It is

8 the ever-increasing level of GFCF, combined with efficiency Одиниця виміру: відсотки.

6 improvements of fixed assets, which is a prerequisite for successful implementation of energy policy measures. 4 Regarding sources of investments, a key role is played 2 by households, which should provide more than half of the 0 additional funding for energy policy measures under the 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Liberal Scenario. At the same time, a significantly higher Figure 6.1 Impact of the energy policies on GDP amount of investments should be provided by industrial Units: % to the Reference (Conservative) Scenario. producers, in particular in the power sector, within the Revolutionary Scenario (Figure 6.4). The amount of additional Considering the dynamics of investments and investment expenses of households is practically the same in technological changes, macroeconomic impacts have a both energy scenarios, while additional investments in the cumulative nature, i.e. additional growth relative tothe electricОдиниця виміру: power відсотки. sector take place only in the Revolutionary reference scenario increases over time. While in 2025 Scenario. additional GDP increase is 4-6%, by 2050 it can reach 12-15%. It should be noted that in terms of aggregate investments Under the current approach it is assumed that own funds category (GFCF), households share is relatively small as of of enterprises and households are key investment sources. 2015 (less than 3% or UAH 4.5 billion in 2011 prices). However, Therefore, the nature of the observed economic effects is in the context of analyzed energy policies, the category of also determined by a more rapid increase in production costs financial expenses of households becomes much broader and during the first years of policies implemenation comparing includes not only investments (under the National accounts 50 Liberal Scenario Revolutionary Scenario As real income of lower decile households will grow Сектор Частка інвестицій Commercia 10.9% faster than of higher ones, analyzed energy policy measures Household 17%18.0% 11% 18% 23% Electric en 54.2% can be considered effective also in the context of reducing Other sect 17.0% 18% income differentiation. Table 6.2 Impact of the energy policies implementation on the households’ income within Revolutionary Scenario (changes of 54% 59% the real income relative to the Conservative Scenario, %)

Commercial sector Household consumers Commercial sector Household consumers Indicator/ Revolutionary Scenario of energy sector development Electric energy industry Other sectors of industry Electric energy industry Other sectors of industry Scenario 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 СекторFigureЧастка 6.4 інвестицій Distribution of additional investments by source Commercia 0.230238023 Aggregate HouseholdUnits: % of total0.590475633 additional investments during 2017-2050. -0.1 1.7 5.6 8.5 10.8 12.6 13.8 14.6 Electric en 0 income Other sect 0.179286344 definition) but also final consumer expenses, i.e. expenditures I decile -0.1 2.1 6.6 10.3 13.2 15.4 17.1 18.1 on large and small household appliances, electrical appliances, group cars, etc., thus reaching significant amounts (in 2014, over II -0.3 1.9 6.6 10.3 13.2 15.5 17.2 18.2 UAH 100 billion)98. In this context, additional investment expenditures of households estimated at USD 169 billion (in III -0.2 2.0 6.7 10.4 13.3 15.6 17.2 18.2 2011 prices) for the implementation of the Revolutionary IV -0.1 2.0 6.5 10.1 12.9 15.0 16.6 17.6 Scenario for 2017-2050 seem to be a relatively minor additional resource representing less than 0.3% of the total V -0.2 1.9 6.5 10.0 12.9 15.0 16.6 17.7 final consumer expenditures of households over the same FVI -0.1 2.0 6.3 9.7 12.3 14.3 15.7 16.6 period (2017-2050). VII -0.3 1.8 6.1 9.4 12.0 13.9 15.4 16.3 6.2 Impacts for Households VIII -0.1 1.8 5.7 8.7 11.0 12.7 13.9 14.7 Should the Liberal Scenario be implemented, there are minor IX 0.0 1.7 5.1 7.5 9.4 10.7 11.7 12.2 X (the positive economic impacts for residential consumers inthe -0.1 0.9 3.0 4.5 5.6 6.4 7.0 7.4 short term (until 2019), while in the case of the Revolutionary highest one) Scenario, there might be even moderate negative effects (Table 6.1, 6.2). However, in the medium term (2020-2025), In general, results show that successful an additional households’ income growth will amount to 4-6% implementation of Ukraine’s energy sector development with a further increase to 11-15% in 2050. policy within both studied scenarios is characterized by positive socio-economic effects for all groups of Table 6.1 Impact of the energy policies implementation on the households. Even though there might be moderate negative households’ income within Liberal Scenario (changes of the impacts in the short term (2019-2020), implementation of real income relative to the Conservative Scenario, %)99 energy efficiency measures and development of RES will lead to an increase in real income of households, and by Indicator/ Liberal Scenario of energy sector development 2050 these trends will strengthen significantly. Scenario 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 6.3 Sectoral Impacts Aggregate 0.3 1.4 3.8 5.8 7.6 9.0 10.3 11.4 income In addition to increase in aggregate output, there are also I decile significant shifts at the sectoral level. In most cases these 0.4 1.7 4.6 7.1 9.2 11.1 12.8 14.2 group99 changes are related to energy sector and energy-intensive industries. The following factors are the main determinants of II 0.4 1.7 4.6 7.1 9.2 11.1 12.7 14.1 such changes. III 0.4 1.7 4.6 7.1 9.3 11.1 12.7 14.1 Firstly, it is a productivity change. As has already been IV 0.4 1.7 4.5 6.9 9.0 10.8 12.4 13.7 mentioned, it is assumed that intensification of investment processes leads not only to quantitative (increase in volumes V 0.4 1.7 4.5 6.9 8.9 10.7 12.2 13.6 of fixed assets), but also to qualitative (increased efficiency of VI 0.4 1.6 4.3 6.6 8.6 10.2 11.7 12.9 production processes) changes. Thus, increased production efficiency leads to a decrease in the specific energy consumption VII 0.4 1.5 4.1 6.3 8.2 9.7 11.1 12.2 and changes in the consumption structure (fuel substitution). VIII 0.4 1.5 3.9 6.0 7.7 9.2 10.5 11.6 Secondly, additional investments. The increase in IX 0.3 1.3 3.4 5.1 6.5 7.6 8.6 9.5 productivity is defined mainly by additional investments. In this context, the balance between volumes of additional investments X (the 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.2 4.1 4.8 5.4 5.9 and changes in the output efficiency is also important. highest one) Thirdly, the change in the intermediate consumption prices, primarily for energy resources. If intermediate The main driver of households’ real income change consumption prices increase more than the corresponding is the growth in wages due to increase in the total output of energy use efficiency, there may be negative sectoral effects. goods and services. Thus, considering changes in the sectoral Finally, changes in sectoral demand, which include output structure (see Section 2.3), there will be changes in both domestic and foreign markets, also provide an important the employment distribution by sectors, with a decrease in contribution. In general, a combination of these factors defines the number of employees in the extractive industries and an sectoral effects (Figure 6.5). increase in employment in the service sector, agriculture and Following the relative increase in electricity some processing industries. consumption and reduction in the coal and oil products use, Higher investments and more rapid output growth there are corresponding changes in the sectoral output. within the Revolutionary Scenario lead to faster growth in Several industries, in particular metallurgical production, households’ real income in the long term compared to the chemical industry and some sectors of mechanical engineering Liberal Scenario (Table 6.1, 6.2). are growing due to improvements in intermediate energy

98 National Accounts of Ukraine for 2014 [Text]: Statistical compendium / State Statistics Service of Ukraine (Under the editorship of I. M. Nikitina). – Kyiv. – 2016. – 172 p. 99 Households divided into decile groups by the level of per capita income. 51 Liberal Revolutionary

40 Liberal Revolutionary 30 Coal mining -26.6 -47.4 20 Gas distribution -30.0 -45.9 10 Manufacture of coke -3.6 -40.0 0 Manufacture of oil products -12.1 -35.1 Extraction of hydrocarbons -9.8 -16.5 -10 Manufacture of computers -4.8 -7.2 -20 Agriculture 4.8 6.4 -30 Chemicals 10.3 7.7 -40 Entertainment and recreation 7.2 8.1 -50 Real estate 6.8 8.3 Construction 4.4 10.3 Food Industry 9.0 10.9

Extraction of mineral resources 8.1 Heating 11.4 Education Chemicals Metallurgy Real estate Public administration Agriculture 11.5 14.1 Coal mining Coal Construction Water supply Water Food Industry Public healthcare 13.1 16.4 Woodworking Gas distribution Gas

Education healthcare Public 14.1 16.9 Water supply 16.3 20.6 Manufacture of coke of Manufacture Public administration Public

Heating 23.9 22.7 industry energy Electric Electric energy industry 4.2 25.5 Manufacture of computers of Manufacture Extraction of hydrocarbons Extraction Woodworking products oil of Manufacture 6.4 27.4 Entertainment and recreation and Entertainment Metallurgy Extraction of resources mineral 8.7 35.3 Figure 6.5 Impact of the energy policies on the sectoral output in 2050 Units: % to the Reference (Conservative) Scenario. consumption, as well as coal and natural gas price reduction until 2050 is based on the reference demographic scenario due to the decrease in demand. There is also a moderate of the Institute for Demography and Social Studies102 and is growth, relative to the Reference (Conservative) Scenario, in assumed to be proportional to the change in the number of most service sector industries. These trends are presented in people aged 15-64. more detail in Annexes A.7-A.8. In general, results show that changes in employment As a result of a significant increase in the share of qualitatively correspond to the sectoral output shifts, however, biomass in the final consumption relative to the Reference quantitative effects differ significantly (Figure 6.6). In particular, (Conservative) Scenario, especially within the Revolutionary relative decrease in the number of people employed inthe Scenario, there is an additional output growth in the coal-mining industry is significantly higher than the decrease in woodworking industry and agriculture. output (Annex A.9), reflecting the improvement of fixed assets’ Considering the scale of structural shifts, another technological efficiency in the long term. important aspect of sectoral effects includes impacts on the As in the case of output, the scale of structural shifts labor market. Although labor market is not explicitly modeled on the labor market under the Revolutionary Scenario in this study, as the aggregate supply of labor is set exogenously substantially exceeds the impacts of the Liberal Scenario. The and does not change between scenarios, it is possible to largest relative decrease in the number of employees can be analyze labor redistribution and employment changes by seen in the extractive industry, oil refining, gas distribution, sectors. It should be noted that such approach has significant and manufacture of coke products (Annex A.9). At the same limitations, since employment is not linked directly to specific time, in the context of absolute changes, the most significant technologies (e.g. the number of jobs created following the growth is observed in the service sector, in particular, for setup of new SPP) and it does not estimate changes in the total public healthcare, public administration and education level of unemployment. However, such approach can provide (Figure 6.6), although, in relative terms, the increase in the important insights into the possible structural shifts on the number of people employed in these sectors does not exceed labor market. 10-17% in 2050. Sectoral redistribution of labor force is defined by Considering a significant development of the renewable several factors and is not always proportional to the changes in energy sources, especially within the Revolutionary Scenario, output volumes. In the long run, the composition of the sectoral small changes in the number of people employed in the electric value added may change due to capital-labor substitution. power industry may seem somewhat unexpected (Figure 6.6). Therefore, sectoral employment may decrease under growing This could be explained by several factors, mainly associated output (e.g. if the share and / or the efficiency of fixed assets with methodological approach. In particular, the change in increases), and, vice versa, grow in case of output reduction the number of employees is estimated in the context of the (e.g. if the share of fixed assets decreases). labor redistribution between sectors and does not explicitly The number of employees by type of economic activities estimates a number of newly created jobs. In addition, electric in the reference year (2015) is based on the State Statistics power sector in the Ukrainian CGE model is aggregated (unlike Service of Ukraine100 data. Redistribution of the number of in the TIMES-Ukraine model), and therefore change in the employees in the case of industrial subsectors was carried out number of employees is assessed for the power industry in proportionally to the number of permanent employees101. The general, rather than for individual sub-sectors (wind power, change in the total number of employees on the national level solar power, etc.). Finally, due to the significant intensification

100 Economic activity of the population of Ukraine 2015 // State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Statistical compendium. Kyiv, 2016. – 201 p. 101 Labor of Ukraine in 2015 // State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Statistical compendium. Kyiv, 2016. – 312 p. 102 Demographic forecast for Ukraine for 2014-2061 // Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. – Available at: http://www.idss.org.ua/monografii/popforecast2012.zip 52 Liberal Revolutionary 200

150 Liberal Revolutionary Coal100 mining -55 -89 Trade -34 -70 Transport50 -66 -65 Gas extraction -20 -31 Gas distribution0 -18 -26 Electric energy industry -35 7 Food-50 Industry 11 7 Woodworking -1 23 Metallurgy-100 1 48 Public healthcare 67 80 Public-150 administration 106 123 Education 127 150 Trade Transport Education Metallurgy Coal mining Food Industry Gas extraction Woodworking Gas distributionGas Public healthcare Public administration Electric energy industry Electric energy

Figure 6.6 Impact of the energy policies on the change in the number of employees by sector in 2050 Units: thousand of people to the Reference (Conservative) Scenario.

of investment processes in the electric power industry, both productivity and shift towards more capital-intensive economic capital stock and production efficiency increase, which results activities may be a relevant policy in the long run. in substitution away from labor towards capital. In the context of output structural changes, there is Similar effects, associated with the intensification of another group of risks that can occur during implementation GFCF, are also observed, for example, in the metallurgical of studied energy policies, which is related to the increase in industry, where output increases by more than 35% under the level of import dependence. In particular, this can be the the Revolutionary Scenario (Figure 6.5), while the number of case for precision engineering and power machine building employees is growing at a significantly lower rate. (solar panels, wind-powered generators, electric cars, etc.), In general, assessment of labor force sectoral components and maintenance services for relevant equipment redistribution shows that there are some preconditions for (post-warranty service, batteries for electric cars, etc.), and emergence of structural unemployment, primarily as a result some categories of biomass / biofuel. If most of the demand for of reduction of output by extractive industries and sectors these categories of goods / services is secured through imports, related to processing of fossil fuels. However, the size of the there may be significant risks of negative macroeconomic labor force in 2050 may decrease by 25-30% relative to the effects and related monetary imbalances. Therefore, it is 2015 level according to available demographic forecasts, extremely important to create favorable environment for the which is a prerequisite of labor shortage rather than development of entrepreneurship and attract investments for additional unemployment. Therefore, further increase in labor the development of advanced technologies in Ukraine.

53 CONCLUSIONS ock t s : Shuer o

54 Phot CONCLUSIONS The possibility of the extensive use of renewable energy • Coal-fired thermal power generation can maintain sources (RES) in meeting the demand for energy services and its output levels in the Liberal Scenario, but at the condition resources in Ukraine until 2050 was assessed using economic of its complete modernization (including new construction) and mathematical models (the TIMES-Ukraine model and in accordance with modern European environmental the computable general equilibrium model of Ukraine) based requirements. This is a rather expensive measure and can on the existing potential of RES and technologies available have a significant impact on the competitiveness of coal on the domestic market (or those that may be available in generation. In addition, this paper did not explore the issue the coming years). In particular, three scenarios that foresee of a significant increase in the CO2 emission tax, which could “Conservative”, “Liberal” and “Revolutionary” development of further reduce the competitiveness of coal generation. energy technologies in all sectors of economy and energy use • While according to the Revolutionary Scenario by the population were modeled. electricity production in 2050 is only 14% more compared to the Conservative Scenario, installed capacity of the power The main results of the modeling of three scenarios for generation facilities should increase by 3.6 times (from 53 GW Ukraine’s energy sector development until 2050: in 2012 to 327 GW in 2050). This is explained by the fact • In the absence of effective policy aimed at that the efficiency of the use of the capacities of WPPs and promotion of energy efficiency measures and RES development SPPs is much lower than that of coal-fired TPPs and NPPs. In (Conservative Scenario), final energy consumption (FEC) addition, transition to RES will require significant volumes of in 2050 will be 27% higher than in 2012. In case of the storage capacities (up to 35% of the total capacity), which are implementation of the ambitious Revolutionary Scenario proposed to be used to ensure predictability and reliability of involving a significant reduction in energy consumption and SPP and WPP operation. However, this paper did not explore intensive development of RES, FEC will decrease by 27%, the possibility of using gas generation, hydropower facilities, and the share of energy received from RES will be 91%. This smart grids, demand management systems, and interstate shows that saved energy resource is the cheapest “resource”, power flows for these purposes, which can significantly reduce and investments in saving are more feasible than those needed the need for storage capacities and considerably improve the to produce additional electricity and heat to meet the needs of quality of energy service delivery. the population and economy as a whole. • The investment resources needed for the • According to the Liberal Scenario, which involves transformation of the electric power sector in the Liberal ensuring perfect technological competition in energy markets, Scenario will be lower (€112 billion for the entire period) than FEC in 2050 will not exceed the corresponding figure of 2012, corresponding needs in the Conservative Scenario (€120 billion while the share of RES will be 31%. for the entire period) due to wide implementation of • The need for electricity production in case of the economically feasible energy efficiency and RES development Liberal Scenario will decrease by 22%, while in case of the measures. However, the implementation of the Revolutionary Revolutionary Scenario it will increase by 13% compared to Scenario requires 83% more of these investments (€220 billion the Conservative Scenario. In the first case, the decrease will for the entire period), especially after 2035. be due to the implementation of energy efficiency measures • Changes in the structure of heat production will and RES development, and in the second, the increase is due depend on the implementation of environmental standards for to the need to abandon fossil fuels in favor of RES, which can the emission of pollutants into the air. So far, Ukraine has not be achieved through the increased use of electricity and heat. assumed obligations to fulfill the requirements of the Directive • The electricity will be produced by all RES 2015/2193/EU which regulates limitation of emissions of technologies that are now available in Ukraine until 2050, certain pollutants into the air from medium combustion since they rapidly develop and become cheaper. The plants (1-50 MW). At the same time, the process of European most promising among them are wind and solar energy integration of Ukraine will involve its future fulfillment, and technologies, and bioenergy technologies can become hence the use of biomass and waste will have advantages and leaders in heat generation. According to the Revolutionary should be a priority in heat supply. According to calculations Scenario, the share of WPP in the structure of the under the Revolutionary Scenario, existing potential of the electricity production can reach 45%, SPP – 36%, and biomass and waste can satisfy almost 75% of the needs for the share of biomass and waste in the structure of the centralized heat supply. thermal energy production can reach up to 73%. • When integrating the above indicators of energy • Annual costs of energy system operation under sector development until 2050 into the indicator of total alternative scenarios will be lower by 6-10% compared to the primary energy supply (TPES), it can be stated that there Conservative Scenario. That is, savings on costs of purchasing fuel will be a significant decrease in TPES (by 57% less compared will cover the costs associated with investing in new technologies, to the Conservative Scenario according to the Revolutionary meaning that targets for increasing energy efficiency and RES Scenario). Thus, the needs of Ukraine can be covered by development proposed in this paper are economically feasible. domestic supply of energy resources by more than 90%, • Nuclear power industry in Ukraine, according to which significantly strengthens energy and economic security. the results of the Liberal Scenario modeling, is unpromising in • “Energy transition” to RES will result in radical case of absence of innovative approaches of its development reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which in 2050

(for example, implementation of innovative reactor types might amount only to 10% of the 1990 level (or 85 mln t СО2- and small module units). This is reasoned by high capital equivalent), which corresponds to required efforts at the costs especially for construction of new nuclear power units. global level to achieve the goal of the Paris Agreement. This Considering this fact, the share of NPPs in the structure of will draw Ukraine nearer to a country with carbon-neutral electric power generation can decrease drastically from 45% in energy sector. 2012 and 54% in 2015 to 13% in 2050. For economic reasons • As the calculations show, implementation of only, modeling estimates show the feasibility of completing the both Liberal and Revolutionary Scenarios is generally 3rd and 4th units of the Khmelnitsky NPP and building one new characterized by positive macroeconomic impacts that unit, replacing those planned to be decommissioned. become fully apparent in the medium term and long term • Under the Revolutionary scenario, NPPs will not starting from 2020. be represented in the structure of electric power generation, • Considering the dynamics of investment processes as one of the conditions of this scenario is a complete phase and technological changes, macroeconomic impacts have out of nuclear power. Lifiteme is extended only for two units a cumulative character: an additional growth relative to of NPPs during the period 2024-2026 provided that all safety the reference scenario increases over time. While in 2025 requirements are fully met. No new investments are foreseen. additional GDP growth is 4-6%, by 2050 it can reach 12-15%.

55 • As to sources of investments, if the Liberal Scenario • According to the model assessments of is implemented, a key role will be played by households which implementing the Liberal Scenario, primary energy intensity should provide more than half of the additional funding of Ukraine’s GDP will reach the level of OECD countries only for energy policy measures. At the same time, within the in 2050, and corresponding indicator for EU 28 countries will Revolutionary Scenario a significantly higher amount of not be reached during the studied period. At the same time, investments should be provided by industrial producers, in according to the Revolutionary Scenario, primary energy particular, in the electric power industry. intensity of Ukraine’s GDP could reach current level of energy • Should the Liberal Scenario be implemented, there intensity of the GDP of OECD countries in 2040, and the same are minor positive economic impacts for households in the of EU 28 countries in 2045. This suggests that it is extremely short term. However, in the medium term (2020-2025), an important to transform modern socio-economic model of additional growth in aggregate income of households may Ukraine into the one that would promote “greening” of the reach 4-6% with a further increase to 11-15% in 2050. energy sector and increase well-being of the population of • Due to possible emergence of structural Ukraine. unemployment as a result of the decrease in the output of • The above results of the modeling of three the sectors related to fossil energy sources, there is a need to development scenarios show that the most ambitious implement effective re-training programs for employees. It is energy and environmental goals, such as transition to 90- expected that market demand for labor force additionally 100% of RES in the final consumption by 2050, can have released as a result of structural changes will be significantly significant benefits for both the economy and society as a higher than the supply, so there will be no increase in the whole, which should be taken into account when developing general level of unemployment due to energy policies strategies or action plans for energy sector development or implementation. climate policy.

56 ANNEXES ock t s : Shuer o

57Phot Annex A.1 Assessments of the main forecasted demand for energy services (drivers) in the TIMES-Ukraine model

Table A.1.1 Assessments of the main forecasted demand for energy services (drivers) in the TIMES-Ukraine model

Change indices from 2012 DRIVER Measurement Reference units value, 2012 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 GDP billion USD 143.8 1.00 0.84 0.98 1.25 1.53 1.87 2.17 2.43 2.64 Population million people 45.5 1.00 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.90 0.88 0.86 0.84 0.82 INDUSTRY Production of steel mln t 17.1 1.00 0.66 0.85 1.07 1.21 1.38 1.52 1.63 1.72 Production of aluminum thousand tons 47.0 1.00 0.54 0.70 0.89 1.00 1.14 1.26 1.35 1.36 Index of industrial products, ferrous metallurgy % 100 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.12 1.27 1.37 1.44 1.48 1.51 Index of industrial products, non-ferrous metallurgy % 100 1.00 0.68 0.92 1.22 1.45 1.73 1.91 1.95 1.96 Production of ammonia thousand tons 3.8 1.00 0.54 0.69 0.76 0.86 1.02 1.16 1.25 1.31 Production of cement mln t 9.8 1.00 0.86 1.23 1.66 2.09 2.67 3.21 3.69 4.10 Production of lime mln t 2.0 1.00 0.58 0.81 1.09 1.34 1.67 1.98 2.24 2.46 Production of glass mln t 0.9 1.00 0.58 0.87 1.15 1.43 1.69 1.93 2.14 2.31 Production of paper mln t 0.7 1.00 0.49 0.49 0.66 0.86 1.10 1.21 1.30 1.34 AGRICULTURE Production index, crop cultivation % 100 1.00 1.00 1.08 1.17 1.27 1.36 1.43 1.49 1.55 Production index, livestock breeding % 100 1.00 0.96 1.03 1.16 1.26 1.35 1.42 1.46 1.50 Production index, other sectors % 100 1.00 0.95 0.99 1.08 1.16 1.20 1.23 1.24 1.24 TRANSPORT Passenger transportation − electric road transport mln pas. per km 7.8 1.00 0.95 0.79 0.82 0.85 0.95 1.07 1.19 1.32 Passenger transportation – subway mln pas. per km 5.9 1.00 0.91 0.91 0.97 1.03 1.11 1.20 1.29 1.39 Passenger transportation – urban transport mln pas. per km 11.0 1.00 0.69 0.68 0.76 0.85 0.98 1.12 1.27 1.42 Passenger transportation – intercity transport mln pas. per km 39.3 1.00 0.69 0.96 1.14 1.40 1.45 1.52 1.58 1.65 Passenger transportation – railway transport mln pas. per km 49.3 1.00 0.71 0.81 0.90 1.01 1.13 1.24 1.32 1.38 Freight transport – road transport mln t per km 57.4 1.00 0.88 0.99 1.12 1.20 1.29 1.35 1.40 1.42 Freight transport – railway transport mln t per km 237.7 1.00 0.82 1.04 1.15 1.21 1.30 1.41 1.46 1.47 Transportation by cars mln pas. per km 132.6 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.13 1.15 1.17 SERVICE SECTOR Value added % 100 1.00 1.15 1.38 1.66 1.99 2.39 2.87 3.44 4.13 Heating – small buildings PJ* 36.2 1.00 1.01 1.10 1.22 1.31 1.40 1.48 1.55 1.60 Heating – large buildings PJ* 66.3 1.00 1.01 1.11 1.20 1.26 1.33 1.39 1.44 1.48 Air conditioning – small buildings PJ* 10.6 1.00 1.06 1.21 1.35 1.46 1.57 1.67 1.74 1.80 Air conditioning – large buildings PJ* 9.7 1.00 1.04 1.15 1.27 1.37 1.47 1.54 1.59 1.63 Water heating – small buildings PJ* 8.8 1.00 1.06 1.20 1.35 1.46 1.57 1.68 1.74 1.80 Water heating – large buildings PJ* 17.6 1.00 1.04 1.14 1.26 1.37 1.45 1.51 1.57 1.60 Lighting PJ* 11.4 1.00 1.06 1.23 1.37 1.48 1.59 1.66 1.71 1.75 Food storage PJ* 9.2 1.00 1.04 1.15 1.27 1.37 1.47 1.53 1.59 1.65 Cooking PJ* 7.0 1.00 1.04 1.15 1.27 1.35 1.42 1.49 1.53 1.57 Street lighting PJ* 17.4 1.00 1.04 1.15 1.30 1.43 1.57 1.66 1.72 1.78 Water supply PJ* 7.3 1.00 1.00 1.04 1.10 1.16 1.22 1.28 1.33 1.37 Other electrical appliances PJ* 1.4 1.00 1.06 1.23 1.39 1.56 1.75 1.94 2.15 2.37 Other energy needs PJ* 15.9 1.00 1.09 1.21 1.37 1.50 1.61 1.68 1.74 1.78 POPULATION (HOUSEHOLDS) Heating – private rural houses PJ* 134.7 1.00 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 Heating – private town houses PJ* 123.9 1.00 0.90 0.95 0.97 0.98 1.00 1.03 1.05 1.08 Heating – private apartment houses PJ* 193.2 1.00 0.89 0.93 0.96 0.97 1.01 1.05 1.09 1.14 Air conditioning – private rural houses PJ* 2.8 1.00 1.23 1.36 1.52 1.69 1.88 2.09 2.32 2.58 Air conditioning – private town houses PJ* 7.5 1.00 1.23 1.36 1.52 1.69 1.88 2.09 2.32 2.58 Air conditioning – private apartment houses PJ* 27.4 1.00 1.23 1.36 1.52 1.69 1.88 2.09 2.32 2.58 Water heating – private rural houses PJ* 65.5 1.00 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 Water heating – private town houses PJ* 50.8 1.00 0.96 1.00 1.05 1.11 1.16 1.22 1.28 1.34 58 Сontinuation of the table A.1.1 Change indices from 2012 DRIVER Measurement Reference units value, 2012 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Water heating – private apartment houses PJ* 94.8 1.00 1.03 1.09 1.16 1.23 1.30 1.38 1.46 1.55 Lighting PJ* 18.1 1.00 1.01 1.03 1.06 1.08 1.11 1.14 1.17 1.20 Cooking PJ* 82.8 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.05 Food storage PJ* 11.7 1.00 1.01 1.06 1.12 1.17 1.23 1.29 1.36 1.43 Washing clothes PJ* 6.3 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.05 Ironing/drying clothes PJ* 2.7 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.04 Dishwashing PJ* 0.6 1.00 1.23 1.29 1.49 1.71 1.97 2.26 2.60 2.99 Other electrical appliances PJ* 13.5 1.00 1.06 1.17 1.31 1.45 1.61 1.79 1.98 2.20 * The demand for energy services (drivers) in the service sector and households is measured in so-called “useful demand” and in energy units, in this case in PJ.

59 Annex A.2 Basic structure of energy system in the TIMES-Ukraine model Figure A.2.1 Basic structure of energy system in the TIMES-Ukraine model

FOSSIL PRIMARY SECONDARY SECTORAL DEMANDS (end-use ENERGY RESOURCES ENERGY RESOURCES ENERGY RESOURCES ENERGY RESOURCES energy devices) l

y u d . y m m n t n t

s s e f i i , u u t t e e r r c s c c e c e i y g i g t e a l l r r r u u g o s v o R e t t o o r t l t r l l r o d d r r d o c c R R c a e a t t a a s s d s d p c o o n l e l e l C e R i l u i e y n l i r a e r e a y o o x e u e h N C c o n g r c g o e e h h o p e f p p p h

processing INDUSTRY coal coal improved steel lignite processing oil aluminum oil ammonia synthecs fuel MININNG producon glass paper methanol producon other demand petroleum products. gas gas carbonaceous methanol producon oils uranium MININNG non-carbonaceous UTILITIES, COMMERCIAL, methanol producon BUDGET SECTORS heang, water heang electricity air condioning TPP lighng non-carbonaceous cooking, food storage washing, drying, ironing renewable resources (NCRR) NCRR water supply local transport carbonaceous CRR other

MININNG renewable resources (CRR)

СHP

Motor s e vehicle i n product. a d p n a m t o r o c y p l s p n p a u r t s

Gasiﬁed TRANSPORT

S coal freight transportaon petroleum products passenger transportaon other demand

OCK crude oil T oils

T, S uranium NPP gas ...

IMPOR electricity

HPP

WPP

Boiler houses AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND FISHING crop culvaon Solar plants livestock breeding local transport

Geotherm. other plants

hydrogen Bio- producon cogeneraon

60 Annex A.3 Database of the TIMES-Ukraine model • “Supply of thermal energy by energy companies and thermal power plants”; Database of the TIMES-Ukraine model includes reported data • “Operation of power-generating units 150, 200, 300 and of statistical observations of the State Statistics Service of 800 MW”; Ukraine, in particular: • “Fuel flow at energy enterprises”; • “Specific equivalent fuel consumption for supply of Forms: electricity by energy companies and thermal power plants • 1P-NPP “Report on the production of industrial products”; of Ukraine”; • 4-mtp “Report on the use of energy materials and oil • “Technological electricity consumption for transmission processing products”; by power supply networks”; • 11-mtp “The results of using fuel, heat energy and • “Consumption (losses) of thermal energy for its electricity”; transportation in heat networks”; • No.4-TZ “Report on the number and technical condition of • “Cost price of electric and thermal energy”; cars, buses, motorcycles and trailers (semitrailers)”; • “Daily power consumption patterns of UES (United Energy • No.51-avto “Report on the volumes of freight and System) of Ukraine”. passenger transportation by public railway transport”; In order to verify existing and promising technologies, • No.2-tr “Report on the operation of motor transport”; data from the State Agency on Energy Efficiency and Energy • No.2-etr “Report on the operation of urban electric Saving of Ukraine, domestic energy generating, energy and gas transport”; supply companies, as well as companies producing oil, gas and • No.51-TsA “Report on the main performance indicators of coal, are used. an air transport enterprise”; In order to identify promising energy technologies • No.31-vod “Report on the transportation of cargoes and and their technical and economic characteristics, data from passengers by water transport”; the International Energy Agency contained in recurrent • No.1-torh (oil products) “Report on the sale of light oil publications, in particular, in Energy Technology Perspectives103, products and gas”; and E-TechDS104, information and analytical database of • “Export and import of certain types of goods by countries energy technologies, created within the Energy Technology of the world”. Systems Analysis Program (ETSAP), were used. Data from DIW Berlin were also used, in particular, the study on Current Compendiums: and Prospective Costs of Electricity Generation until 2050105. • “Production and consumption of electricity and separate Particular attention should be given to the study (report) on technical and economic performance indicators of thermal Projected Costs of Generating Electricity106 drawn up by such power plants in Ukraine”; leading and credible institutions as the International Energy • “On the main performance indicators of heating boiler Agency and the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) within the houses and heat networks of Ukraine”; Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. • “Transport and communications in Ukraine”; Information on the efficient technologies for the use of • “Housing Stock of Ukraine”; energy resources is also available on the websites of domestic • “Availability of durable goods in households”; producer companies or supplier companies, but mainly it • “Socio-demographic characteristics of households does not contain all the necessary data. More systematized in Ukraine”; data can be found on the information resources of specialized • “Hotels and other places for temporary accommodation”; associations (Bioenergy Association of Ukraine107, Ukrainian • “Preschool education of Ukraine”; Wind Energy Association108, Ukrainian Association of • “General educational institutions of Ukraine”; Renewable Energy109), SE NNEGC “Energoatom”110 etc. • “Main performance indicators of higher education To determine indicators of a long-term economic institutions of Ukraine”; development of Ukraine, data from the State Organization • “Cultural, arts, physical culture and sport establishments “Institute for Economics and Forecasting” of the National of Ukraine”; Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, international financial, rating • “Health care institutions and disease incidence of the agencies and other organizations are used (for example, population of Ukraine”; International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Standard & • “Network of retail and restaurant enterprises”; Poor’s, etc.), as well as data from the Ministry of Economic • “Availability and use of a trading network in markets”; Development and Trade of Ukraine. • “On the main performance indicators of the water-supply Price forecast for main energy resources is based on the facilities of Ukraine”; World Bank’s data, namely on the report Commodity Markets • “On the main performance indicators of the gas-supply Outlook111. facilities of Ukraine”. The forecasts of demographic dynamics in Ukraine are based on the data from the Institute for Demography and Social Database of the TIMES-Ukraine model also includes Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine112 and information of the Ministry of Energy and Coal Industry of United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs113.

Ukraine, in particular: Coefficients for СО2, СН4 and N2О emissions from combustion of fuel in stationary plants in different sectors Report forms: are based on the data from the National cadastre of • “Production and supply of electricity by energy companies anthropogenic emissions and absorbing of greenhouse gas and thermal power plants”; emissions in Ukraine for 1990-2014114.

103 Energy Technology Perspectives / IEA. — Available at: http://www.iea.org/etp/ 104 E-TechDS – Energy Technology Data Source / The Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program (ETSAP) — Available at: http://iea-etsap.org/index.php/energy-technology-data 105 Current and Prospective Costsof Electricity Generation until 2050 // Deutsches Institut für Wirtschafts forschung. Available at: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/ diw_01.c.424566.de/diw_datadoc_2013-068.pdf 106 Projected Costs of Generating Electricity // International Energy Agency, Nuclear energy agency under the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2015. Available at: https://www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/pubs/2015/7057-proj-costs- electricity-2015.pdf 107 http://www.uabio.org/ 108 http://www.uwea.com.ua/ 109 http://uare.com.ua/ 110 Strategic development of the nuclear sector of Ukraine / NNEGC “Energoatom”, 2016. – Available at: http://www.atom.gov.ua/ua/press/nngc/45256-strategchniyi_rozvitok_yaderno_galuz_ukrani__sluhannya_komtetu_vr_z_pitan_pek_yaderno_poltiki_ta_ yaderno_bezpeki/ 111 Available at: http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/174381493046968144/CMO-April-2017-Full-Report.pdf 112 Demographic forecast for Ukraine for 2014-2061 // Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. — Available at: http://www.idss.org.ua/monografii/popforecast2012.zip 113 World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision // Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. — Available at: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm 114 National Inventory Submissions 2016 / United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change. — Available at: http://unfccc.int/files/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/national_inventories_ submissions/application/zip/ukr-2016-nir-18jul16.zip 61 Annex A.4 Sectoral structure of Ukraine’s GDP for the period 2015-2050 Table A.4.1 Sectoral structure of Ukraine’s GDP for the period 2015-2050, %115

Sectors/Years 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 11.9 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.5 13.2 13.9 14.7 Extractive industries and quarrying 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.1 2.8 Processing industry 12.1 14.4 14.8 14.8 14.3 13.8 13.3 12.9 Supply of electricity, gas, steam and conditioned air 2.7 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 Construction 2.3 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 Commodity production sector – total 31.0 33.2 33.7 33.9 33.9 33.9 33.9 33.9 Service sector – total 53.9 53.1 53.1 53.1 53.1 53.1 53.1 53.1

Annex A.5 Main characteristics of energy technologies presented in the TIMES-Ukraine model

A.5.1 Electricity and heat production Table A.5.1.1 Basic cost performance of heat plants

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Wood biomass

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 2,800 2,800 2,800 2,600 2,500 2,400 2,200 2,000

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 30 CP, % 24 24 25 26 28 29 30 31 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 30 Biomass from waste of agro-industrial complex, etc.

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 3,500 2,900 2,800 2,700 2,600 2,500 2,300 2,100

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 30 CP, % 23 23 24 24 25 27 28 29 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 30 Biogas

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 4,500 4,400 4,300 4,200 4,100 4,000 3,900 3,800

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 50 CP, % 42 42 42 43 43 43 44 44 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 30 Gas (combined cycle)

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 20 CP, % 60 60 60 60 61 61 62 62 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 35 Gas (gas turbine)

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 20 CP, % 51 51 51 52 52 52 53 53 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 35 Gas (steam turbine)

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 920 920 920 920 920 920 920 920

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 12 CP, % 34 34 34 34 34 35 35 35 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 30

115 The sum of shares of the services sector and commodity production sector represents less than 100%, since GDP also includes taxes and subsidies for products that, within the national accounts system, are presented separately from sectors. 62 Сontinuation of the table A.5.1.1 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal (combustion in a circulating boiling layer)

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,700

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 28 CP, % 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 35 Coal (integrated gasification combined cycle)

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 63 CP, % 46 46 46 46 46 47 47 48 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 35 Coal (combustion on undercritical parameters)

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 30 CP, % 39 39 39 39 39 40 40 41 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 35 Joint combustion of coal and biomass (on undercritical parameters)

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050 2,050

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 30 CP, % 33 33 33 33 33 34 34 34 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 35 Coal (combustion on above-critical parameters)

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 43 CP, % 43 43 43 43 43 44 44 45 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 35

Table A.5.1.2 Basic cost performance of heat and power plants

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Wood biomass

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 3,500 3,400 3,300 3,200 3,100 3,000 2,900 2,800

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 50 CP, % 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 35 Biomass from waste of agro-industrial complex

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 3,500 3,400 3,200 3,100 2,900 2,900 2,800 2,800

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 55 CP, % 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 35 Household waste

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 5,500 5,400 5,200 5,100 5,000 4,800 4,500 4,500

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 55 CP, % 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 35

63 Сontinuation of the table A.5.1.2 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Energy crops

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 3,500 3,400 3,300 3,200 3,100 3,000 3,000 3,000

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 50 CP, % 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 35 Gas (combined cycle)

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 42 CP, % 50 50 50 50 51 51 52 52 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 35 Gas (steam turbine)

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 920 920 920 920 920 920 920 920

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 12 CP, % 45 45 45 45 45 46 46 47 ICUF, % 42 Life time, years 35 Coal (combined cycle)

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 52 CP, % 36 36 36 36 36 37 37 37 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 35 Coal (steam turbine)

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 52 CP, % 33 33 33 33 33 34 34 34 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 35

Table A.5.1.3 Basic cost performance of boiler houses

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Wood biomass Capital expenditure, EUR/kW 150 145 142 140 138 136 136 136 Operating expenses, EUR/kW 7 CP, % 64 64 64 64 64 65 65 65 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 35 Biomass from waste of agro-industrial complex, etc.

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 400 350 320 300 280 270 260 250

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 7 CP, % 62 62 62 62 63 63 63 64 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 35 Gas

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 2,5 CP, % 71 71 71 71 71 71 72 72 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 40

64 Сontinuation of the table A.5.1.3 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 10 CP, % 40 40 40 40 40 40 41 41 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 35 Electricity

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 1,2 CP, % 75 75 75 75 75 76 76 77 ICUF, % 50 Life time, years 40 Table A.5.1.4 Basic cost performance of industrial boilers

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Wood biomass Capital expenditure, EUR/kW 145 142 140 138 136 134 134 145 Operating expenses, EUR/kW 7 CP, % 83 ICUF, % 60 Life time, years 40 Biomass from waste of agro-industrial complex, etc.

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 270 260 250 240 230 220 220 270

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 7 CP, % 80 ICUF, % 60 Life time, years 40 Gas

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 2 CP, % 90 ICUF, % 60 Life time, years 40 Coal

Capital expenditure, EUR/kWelectr. 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90

Operating expenses, EUR/kWelectr. 8 CP, % 80 ICUF, % 60 Life time, years 40

A.5.2 Heating, hot water supply and improvement of energy efficiency of buildings Table A.5.2.1 Basic cost performance of technologies (including boilers) for heating of buildings

Capital expenditure, EUR/kW CP, % Life time, years 2015 2050 Biomass and waste 25-45 25-45 75-85 15 Gas 25-38 25-38 75-90 20 Coal 8-50 8-50 60-75 15 Solar energy + Electricity 63 31 97 30 Solar energy + Gas 88 44 94 30 Geothermal energy + Electricity 415 208 90 30 Electricity 14-21 14-21 94 15

65 Table A.5.2.2 Basic cost performance of technologies (including boilers) for hot water supply

Capital expenditure, EUR/kW CP, % Life time, years 2015 2050 Biomass and waste 13-38 13-38 70 20 Gas 7-13 7-13 92 15 Coal 9-14 9-14 70 20 Solar energy + Electricity 45 23 97 20 Solar energy + Gas 65 33 94 20 Electricity 8-11 8-11 96 15

Table A.5.2.3 Assumptions regarding investment needs and efficiency of measures for thermal modernization of buildings

Private residential buildings Apartment buildings Non-residential buildings investments savings investments savings investments savings UAH/ kWh/ m2 mln EUR/ PJ % UAH/ kWh/ m2 mln EUR/ PJ % UAH/ kWh/ m2 mln EUR/ PJ % Simple insulation 3.0 28.9 14 3.2 31.0 14 4.0 38.8 10 Complete insulation 12.0 117.0 52 12.9 125.6 46 16.9 165.0 55 Additional modernization 14.4 140.0 74 18.5 180.0 75 22.6 220.0 75

A.5.3 Transport Table A.5.3.1 Basic cost performance of transport technologies

Cost, Efficiency, Share of biofuel, thousand EUR km/GJ Annual mileage, Mode of transport % Life time, years thousand km 2015 2050 2015 2050 Intercity buses Diesel + biodiesel up to 20 210 190 20 93 112 27.5 Gasoline + ethanol up to 20 200 180 20 92 111 27.5 Biodiesel up to 100 225 205 20 93 112 27.5 Ethanol up to 100 240 215 20 92 111 27.5 Electricity 0 400 180 20 185 220 27.5 Gas 0 220 210 20 95 95 27.5 City buses Diesel + biodiesel up to 20 210 190 20 106 127 27.5 Gasoline + ethanol up to 20 200 180 20 108 130 27.5 Biodiesel up to 100 250 205 20 106 127 27.5 Ethanol up to 100 240 215 20 108 180 27.5 Electricity 0 400 190 20 180 215 27.5 Gas 0 220 210 20 111 111 27.5 Motor cars Diesel + biodiesel up to 20 20 18 20 308 370 14.3 Diesel + biodiesel up to 70 20 19 20 293 352 14.3 Biodiesel up to 100 21 20 20 280 335 14.3 Gasoline + ethanol up to 20 21 18 20 318 382 11.5 Gasoline + ethanol up to 70 21 19 20 302 362 11.5 Ethanol up to 100 22 21 20 285 340 11.5 Electricity 0 27 20 20 855 885 17.2 Gas 0 20 19 20 328 328 14.3 Trucks Diesel + biodiesel up to 20 126 122 20 118 142 25.1 Gasoline + ethanol up to 20 130 125 20 122 146 25.1 Biodiesel up to 100 140 134 20 118 142 21.7 Ethanol up to 100 147 141 20 122 146 21.7 Electricity 0 670 125 20 355 425 22.0 66 Сontinuation of the table A.5.3.1 Cost, Efficiency, Share of biofuel, thousand EUR km/GJ Annual mileage, Mode of transport % Life time, years thousand km 2015 2050 2015 2050 Gas 0 126 126 20 115 115 25.1 Motorcycles Electricity 0 13 13 20 777 854 4.8 Gasoline 0 3 3 20 1555 1865 5.1

A.5.4 Industry Table A.5.4.1 Basic cost performance of industrial technologies

Sector Specific energy consumption per 1 ton of products Cost of technology, $/t of products Metallurgy from 750 to 325 kWh/t of steel (1.2-2.7 GJ) $540-600/t of steel Production of ammonia 27 GJ/t $30-50/t Pulp and paper from 18.7 to 17.1 GJ/t $600-800/t Cement from 3.0 to 2.5 GJ/t of cement $90-130/t Production of glass 10.8 GJ/t $250-300/t

Annex A.6 Detailed results of modeling Ukraine’s energy sector development scenarios until 2050 A.6.1 Reference (Conservative) Scenario Table A.6.1.1 Total primary energy supply, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal 42,718 27,344 50,042 60,980 68,974 75,464 80,993 86,010 90,027 Gas 43,018 26,055 33,944 36,513 38,546 41,036 43,660 43,810 42,761 Crude oil and oil products 11,609 10,551 12,252 13,126 14,229 15,340 16,078 16,837 17,753 Nuclear energy 23,653 22,985 16,951 15,544 13,989 14,429 12,537 12,554 12,554 Electricity -987 -116 -253 -299 -354 -391 -431 -418 -405 Hydroelectric power 901 464 907 1,030 1,117 1,123 1,130 1,133 1,140 Wind energy 25 94 258 370 378 387 396 396 430 Solar energy 28 40 24 48 72 82 42 42 42 Biofuel and waste 1,522 1,465 2,112 2,205 2,221 2,520 2,828 3,399 3,944 Total 122,487 89,519** 116,238 129,515 139,172 149,989 157,233 163,762 168,245 Share of RES 2.0% 2.3% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 3.0% 3.3% * Statistical data. Here and in other tables, statistical data for 2015 are given without taking into account temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, City of Sevastopol and part of the area of anti-terrorist operation (ATO). In 2012, territorial integrity was not violated, and this particular year was taken as a reference one. Therefore, modeling results from 2020 actually include the Crimea and Donbas territory under ATO, which explains a significant leap between statistical data for 2015 and modeling results from 2020. ** Thermal energy was not taken into account as primary energy.

Table A.6.1.2 Domestic extraction (production) of energy resources, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal 40,256 17,423 42,081 51,260 58,294 62,706 66,335 70,060 70,496 Gas 15,403 14,814 16,247 16,736 17,219 18,552 19,196 19,887 20,626 Crude oil 3,414 2,618 3,232 3,879 3,807 4,454 4,354 3,395 1,469 Uranium ore** 7,884 7,662 10,931 15,544 13,989 14,429 12,537 12,554 12,554 Hydroelectric power 901 464 907 1,030 1,117 1,123 1,130 1,133 1,140 Wind energy 25 94 258 370 378 387 396 396 430 Solar energy 28 40 24 48 72 82 42 42 42 Biofuel and waste 1,565 2,606 2,658 2,421 2,377 2,668 2,985 3,555 4,135 Total 69,477 45,721 76,338 91,287 97,252 104,400 106,974 111,022 110,891 Share in the structure of TPES 56.7% 51.1% 65.7% 70.5% 69.9% 69.6% 68.0% 67.8% 65.9% * Statistical data ** Here and in other scenarios, the discrepancy with the data from energy balances (EB) is explained by the fact that in EB the value of nuclear energy corresponds to its production at NPP, but here and in the table on the import of energy resources, conditional indices of uranium ore production, which in Ukraine covers about a third of the needs of the domestic nuclear power industry, are shown. This was done in order to show Ukraine’s dependence on imported uranium ore. In the way it is shown in EB, it looks like we extract all the necessary resources for domestic NPPs in Ukraine.

67 Table A.6.1.3 Import of energy resources, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal 9,926 9,940 11,116 10,424 11,349 13,407 15,288 16,560 20,123 Gas 26,590 13,288 17,697 19,777 21,327 22,484 24,464 23,923 22,135 Crude oil and oil products 9,995 8,125 10,297 10,145 11,072 11,663 12,466 13,850 16,462 Uranium ore** 15,769 15,323 6,021 0 0 0 0 0 0 Electricity 8 193 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 Biofuel and waste 1 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 62,289 46,899 45,150 40,365 43,767 47,573 52,237 54,353 58,739 Share in the structure of TPES 50.9% 52.0% 38.8% 31.2% 31.4% 31.7% 33.2% 33.2% 34.9% * Statistical data. The sum of shares of energy resources extraction and import in the structure of TPES is more than 100%, since the export of energy resources in TPES is calculated with the minus sign. ** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.2.

Table A.6.1.4 Final Energy Consumption, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal 9,212 5,952 6,336 7,658 8,567 9,674 10,603 11,391 12,033 Gas 21,698 13,741 15,998 16,922 17,512 18,518 19,485 20,286 20,578 Crude oil and oil products 11,347 8,776 11,075 12,162 13,234 14,242 14,912 15,433 15,891 Heat energy 11,865 7,526 10,263 10,723 11,285 11,876 12,307 12,792 13,283 Electricity 11,840 10,233 12,698 14,790 16,373 17,990 19,170 19,862 20,282 Biofuel and waste 1,029 1,282 1,427 1,607 1,498 1,736 2,032 2,524 3,039 Solar energy 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 66,991 47,510 57,797 63,862 68,469 74,036 78,511 82,288 85,107 Share of direct RES consumption** 1.5% 2.7% 2.5% 2.5% 2.2% 2.3% 2.6% 3.1% 3.6% Conditional share of RES that is considered*** 2.6% 4.0% 4.3% 4.5% 4.2% 4.2% 4.4% 5.0% 5.5% * Statistical data. ** This share shows only the direct consumption of RES by ultimate consumers. For example, the direct use of biomass for heating (combustion in household solid fuel boilers) by households, the use of solar energy to heat water (solar collector), the use of biofuel by vehicles, the use of biomass in the cement industry, etc. *** This share shows the amount of directly consumed RES and electrical and thermal energy conditionally produced from RES which, in its turn, are calculated as an energy individually consumed by ultimate consumers multiplied by the respective shares of RES in the production of electric and thermal energy. For example, in 2050, final consumers consumed 20,283 thousand toe of electricity (Table A.6.1.4), and share of RES in the structure of electricity production in 2050 is 7.4% (Table A.6.1.11). Then, the amount of electricity conditionally produced from RES and consumed by ultimate consumers is 20,283*6.5%= 1,318 thousand toe, and this, in its turn, represents 1.6% of total final consumption. Similar calculations are made with thermal energy (Table A.6.1.4 and A.6.1.14): 13,382*1.7%= 227 thousand toe or 0.3% of total final consumption. Therefore, conditional share of RES that is considered is 3.6%+1.6%+0.3%=5.5%.

Table A.6.1.5 Final Energy Consumption by sectors, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Industry 24,844 16,408 18,212 21,797 24,539 27,684 29,883 31,532 32,756 Households 23,467 16,555 20,390 21,069 21,482 22,130 22,817 23,570 24,067 Transport 11,448 8,749 10,964 11,976 12,839 13,893 14,991 15,946 16,709 Service sector 5,037 3,838 5,986 6,541 6,916 7,429 7,762 8,054 8,283 Agriculture 2,195 1,960 2,245 2,480 2,694 2,899 3,058 3,186 3,292 Total 66,991 47,510 57,797 63,862 68,469 74,036 78,511 82,288 85,107 * Statistical data

Table A.6.1.6 Final Energy Consumption by industry, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Biofuel and waste 46 86 90 110 130 159 181 201 219 Heat from RES 5 10 38 42 48 57 60 68 76 Electricity from RES 325 232 433 585 680 727 732 737 748 Coal 8,310 5,569 5,515 6,915 7,893 9,107 10,149 11,032 11,761 Electricity 5,102 4,065 5,484 7,026 8,171 9,392 10,242 10,642 10,739 Gas 5,272 2,762 2,188 2,539 2,809 3,137 3,356 3,559 3,743 Heat 4,538 2,870 3,408 3,464 3,651 3,906 3,966 4,091 4,254 Crude oil and oil products 12,46 814 1,055 1,115 1,156 1,200 1,197 1,203 1,216 Total 24,844 16,408 18,212 21,797 24,539 27,684 29,883 31,532 32,756 Share of direct RES consumption** 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% Conditional share of RES that is considered*** 1.5% 2.0% 3.1% 3.4% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% * Statistical data ** See the explanation below the table. A.6.1.4 *** See the explanation below the table. A.6.1.4

68 Table A.6.1.7 Final Energy Consumption by households, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Biofuel and waste 936 1,097 413 332 234 137 39 0 0 Heat from RES 5 10 46 51 57 65 71 81 90 Electricity from RES 198 172 258 280 288 277 265 265 276 Coal 715 303 631 566 510 418 324 234 144 Electricity 3,105 3,012 3,271 3,360 3,464 3,577 3,702 3,828 3,959 Gas 13,760 9,083 11,658 12,289 12,627 13,172 13,736 14,281 14,357 Heat 4,677 2,864 4,044 4,191 4,301 4,485 4,680 4,880 5,091 Crude oil and oil products 71 14 69 0 0 0 0 0 148 Total 23,467 16,555 20,390 21,069 21,482 22,130 22,817 23,570 24,067 Share of direct RES consumption** 4.0% 6.6% 2.0% 1.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Conditional share of RES that is considered*** 4.9% 7.7% 3.5% 3.1% 2.7% 2.2% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% * Statistical data ** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4 *** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4

Table A.6.1.8 Final Energy Consumption by transport, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Biofuel and waste 0 34 358 511 513 642 949 1,416 1,888 Electricity from RES 48 32 55 63 66 66 66 66 71 Coal 12 4 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 Electricity 750 553 695 753 790 854 922 960 1,020 Gas 2,050 1,572 1,364 1,223 1,137 1,210 1,345 1,356 1,361 Crude oil and oil products 8,588 6,554 8,481 9,414 10,321 11,109 11,697 12,136 12,357 Total 11,448 8,749 10,964 11,976 12,839 13,893 14,991 15,946 16,709 Share of direct RES consumption** 0.0% 0.4% 3.3% 4.3% 4.0% 4.6% 6.3% 8.9% 11.3% Conditional share of RES that is considered*** 0.4% 0.7% 3.8% 4.8% 4.5% 5.1% 6.8% 9.3% 11.7% * Statistical data ** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4 *** See the explanation below the table A 6.1.4

Table A.6.1.9 Final Energy Consumption by service sector, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Biofuel and waste 27 46 543 627 592 769 833 877 901 Heat from RES 2 5 27 32 37 42 46 53 58 Electricity from RES 118 101 158 180 193 192 186 188 195 Coal 161 67 164 150 136 119 99 94 96 Gas 463 195 663 733 791 841 883 918 941 Crude oil and oil products 78 92 62 72 57 89 63 48 49 Heat 2,326 1,555 2,370 2,580 2,798 2,903 3,045 3,163 3,242 Electricity 1,862 1,777 2,000 2,166 2,313 2,475 2,607 2,714 2,801 Total 5,037 3,838 5,986 6,541 6,916 7,429 7,762 8,054 8,283 Share of direct RES consumption** 0.5% 1.2% 9.1% 9.6% 8.6% 10.3% 10.7% 10.9% 10.9% Conditional share of RES that is considered*** 2.9% 4.0% 12.2% 12.8% 11.9% 13.5% 13.7% 13.9% 13.9% * Statistical data ** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4 *** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4

Table A.6.1.10 Final Energy Consumption by agriculture, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Biofuel and waste 20 19 24 26 28 29 30 31 31 Heat from RES 0 1 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 Electricity from RES 20 16 25 29 31 31 30 30 31 Coal 14 9 14 16 17 18 19 20 20 Electricity 312 289 343 377 406 430 448 461 472 Gas 153 129 125 138 149 158 166 171 176 Heat 312 211 327 358 388 413 433 449 463 69 Сontinuation of the table A.6.1.10 2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Crude oil and oil products 1,364 1,302 1,408 1,562 1,700 1,844 1,956 2,046 2,121 Total 2,195 1,960 2,245 2,480 2,694 2,899 3,058 3,186 3,292 Share of direct RES consumption** 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% Conditional share of RES that is considered*** 1.8% 1.8% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% * Statistical data ** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4 *** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4

Table A.6.1.11 Production of electricity, billion kWh

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 NPP (existing ones) 90 88 65 52 32 20 13 13 13 NPP (new) 0 0 0 7 20 34 34 34 34 TPP (existing ones) 79 58 89 96 100 98 97 97 97 TPP (new, coal) 0 0 11 28 45 67 87 105 121 TPP (new, gas) 0 0 0 7 11 14 18 13 1 CHPP and isolated generating plants 18 8 22 27 32 32 35 34 35 HPP and PSPP (large ones) 11 7 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 HPP (new small ones) 0,3 0,2 0,5 0,6 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,8 0,9 WPP 0,3 1,1 3,0 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6 4,6 5,0 SPP (ground mounted) 0,3 0,5 0,2 0,2 0,5 0,6 0,5 0,5 0,5 SPP (roof mounted) 0 0 0,1 0,4 0,4 0,4 0 0 0 Geothermal Power Plant 0 0 0 0,3 0,7 0,9 0,9 0,9 0,9 Bio CHP/TPP 0 0,1 0,9 1,0 1,0 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 Total 199 162 202 235 260 285 304 315 322 Share of RES 6.0% 5.4% 7.3% 7.7% 7.7% 7.2% 6.7% 6.5% 6.5% * Statistical data

Table A.6.1.12 Installed capacity of thermal power plants, GW

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 NPP (existing ones) 13.8 13.8 9.8 7.8 4.8 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 NPP (new) 0 0 0 1.0 3.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 TPP (existing ones) 25.4 25.5 25.5 27.0 26.0 24.4 24.2 24.0 24.1 TPP (new, coal) 0 0 2.5 6.4 10.6 15.4 19.9 24.0 27.6 TPP (new, gas) 0 0 1.6 3.2 5.6 8.0 9.6 9.6 8.8 CHPP and isolated generating plants 8.0 7.7 11.4 12.8 13.8 13.9 13.8 13.4 12.8 HPP and PSPP (large ones) 5.5 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 HPP (new small ones) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 WPP 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.3 SPP (ground mounted) 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 SPP (roof mounted) 0 0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 Geothermal Power Plant 0 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Bio CHP/TPP 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 Total 53.3 54.6 59.7 68.2 74.1 80.0 84.9 88.6 90.8 Share of RES 11.5% 13.9% 15.0% 14.8% 13.9% 13.0% 12.4% 11.9% 11.7% * Statistical data

Table A.6.1.13 Capital investments in electric power industry facilities, million EUR

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 NPP (existing ones)* 0 234 234 0 934 0 0 NPP (new) 0 1,625 11,180 13,000 0 0 0 TPP (existing ones) 144 802 593 3,584 4,416 7,127 9,555 TPP (new, coal) 3,735 6,150 6,660 7,680 7,170 6,405 5,580 TPP (new, gas) 1,280 1,280 2,016 2,016 1,280 0 0 CHPP and isolated generating plants 3,932 1,477 1,473 1,514 1,482 852 931

70 Сontinuation of the table A.6.1.13 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 HPP and PSPP (large ones) 95 280 0 0 0 0 0 HPP (new small ones) 622 88 93 82 81 36 87 WPP (ground mounted) 1,361 944 69 66 62 0 237 SPP (ground mounted) 57 0 0 0 0 0 0 SPP (roof mounted) 90 180 0 0 0 0 0 Geothermal Power Plant 0 193 465 127 0 0 149 Bio CHP/TPP 536 56 59 56 54 52 255 Total 11,851 13,309 22,841 28,125 15,480 14,473 16,794 Share of RES 23.3% 13.1% 3.0% 1.2% 1.3% 0.6% 4.3% * Investments to extend the life time of the operating units of NPPs

Table A.6.1.14 Total thermal energy production by type of fuel, thousand toe

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Biomass and waste 14 37 135 152 176 202 228 258 291 Coal 620 705 3,552 4,463 5,721 6,366 7,420 7,919 8,709 Electricity 19 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Gas 12,830 9,870 8,252 7,839 7,527 7,471 7,495 7,445 7,573 Oil products 6 6 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 Nuclear energy 163 160 119 114 120 135 127 127 127 Total 13,652 10,853 12,064 12,573 13,546 14,176 15,270 15,749 16,701 Share of RES 0.1% 0.3% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7%

Table A.6.1.15 Energy consumption by boiler houses of Central Heating Units (CHU) and autoproducers of thermal energy (boiler houses and cogeneration plants), thousand toe

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Biomass 536 594 352 288 294 286 258 292 333 Coal 1,402 1,278 3,809 4,568 5,391 5,859 6,352 6,614 7,013 Electricity 63 147 14 7 6 3 0 0 0 Gas 10,458 8,206 5,526 5,332 5,383 5,284 5,254 5,154 5,257 Oil products 128 174 72 55 51 52 45 38 38 Total 12,587 10,398 9,773 10,250 11,125 11,483 11,909 12,097 12,641 Share of RES 4.3% 5.7% 3.6% 2.8% 2.6% 2.5% 2.2% 2.4% 2.6%

Table A.6.1.16 Capital investments in thermal energy production, million EUR

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Boiler houses of CHUs 239 749 427 736 623 608 321 Boiler plants 26 3 2 7 1 5 2 Heat recovery units 0 237 236 316 262 180 142 Total 264 989 664 1,058 886 794 465

Table A.6.1.17 Greenhouse gas emissions*, million tons CO2-equivalent

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Agriculture 6 6 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 Service sector 8 8 10 12 14 14 15 16 16 Electricity and heat production sector 105 74 117 143 162 178 194 204 213 Industry 101 73 89 107 119 136 148 160 169 Households 37 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 44 Supply sector 73 40 66 78 87 95 103 108 110 Transport 21 19 20 22 25 27 28 29 30 Total 353 255 347 408 455 500 540 570 592 % of 1990 43.2% 31.3% 42.6% 49.9% 55.7% 61.3% 66.1% 69.9% 72.5% * GHG emissions include emissions from “Energy sector” and “Industrial Processes Sector” as they are understood by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

71 Table A.6.1.18 Energy intensity and carbon intensity

Indicators 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Primary energy intensity, toe/$1,000 2010 GDP (PPP) 0.33 0.29 0.32 0.28 0.24 0.22 0.20 0.18 0.17 Final energy intensity, toe/$1,000 2010 GDP (PPP) 0.18 0.15 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.09

Carbon intensity, t CO2-equivalent /$1,000 2010 GDP (PPP) 0.95 0.82 0.96 0.88 0.80 0.72 0.67 0.63 0.60 Primary energy intensity, toe/person 2.69 2.09 2.62 2.97 3.25 3.59 3.85 4.11 4.32 Final energy intensity, toe/person 1.47 1.11 1.30 1.46 1.60 1.77 1.92 2.06 2.19

Carbon intensity, t CO2-equivalent/person 7.76 5.97 7.82 9.34 10.63 11.97 13.23 14.30 15.21

Table A.6.1.19 Costs and investments, million EUR*

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Cost of fuel 20,408 13,507 12,331 13,485 15,069 16,750 18,532 19,776 20,803 New capital investments in electricity and heat production technologies - 8 643 1,509 2,861 4,598 5,799 6,752 7,756 New capital investments in final energy consumption technologies - 3,326 11,513 20,841 26,543 30,292 32,835 34,874 36,630 New capital investments in intermediate technologies - 21 367 974 1,619 2,401 3,089 3,522 3,751 Costs of transportation, supply and intermediate technologies 1,614 1,328 2,227 3,665 5,247 7,148 8,711 9,639 10,085 Maintenance expenses (electric energy and heat production) 1,515 1,592 2,039 2,765 3,744 4,931 6,167 7,188 8,039 Maintenance expenses (final energy consumption technologies) 2,880 3,067 5,582 9,657 14,196 19,035 23,294 26,302 28,458 Subsidies (feed-in-tariff) 157 286 322 384 335 0 0 0 0 Total 26,418 22,859 34,882 53,146 69,454 85,191 98,426 108,053 115,521 * For most energy technologies (thermal power plants, final consumption appliances, etc.), capital expenditures accrue over the entire period of their operation, and annual cash flow is calculated taking into account the period of use of a technology and the cost of capital. These annual payments, together with relevant maintenance expenses, constitute the total costs of the energy system. The annual investment costs of technologies introduced in previous periods are not calculated and, accordingly, are not included in the target function.

A.6.2 Liberal Scenario Table A.6.2.1 Total primary energy supply, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal 42,718 27,344 37,141 38,627 37,604 42,564 43,572 43,993 43,365 Gas 43,018 26,055 31,671 29,646 27,147 25,847 24,008 21,971 20,626 Crude oil and oil products 11,609 10,551 11,581 11,826 12,473 12,720 11,797 10,738 8,912 Nuclear energy 23,653 22,985 16,951 15,544 12,183 8,991 8,865 8,902 8,902 Electricity -987 -116 -190 -143 -84 -57 -36 -24 2 Hydroelectric power 901 464 906 991 1,111 1,113 1,115 1,117 1,118 Wind energy 25 94 772 1,324 1,876 2,342 2,777 3,209 3,641 Solar energy 28 40 252 642 1,033 1,861 2,747 3,641 4,377 Biofuel and waste 1,522 1,465 4,026 4,296 4,419 5,744 7,864 10,448 14,496 Total 122,487 89,519** 103,110 102,753 97,761 101,126 102,708 103,995 105,438 Share of RES 2.0% 2.3% 5.8% 7.1% 8.6% 10.9% 14.1% 17.7% 22.4% * Statistical data ** Thermal energy was not taken into account as primary energy

Table A.6.2.2 Domestic extraction (production) of energy resources, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal 40,256 17,423 29,698 31,005 28,891 33,727 33,096 33,090 32,508 Gas 15,403 14,814 16,247 16,736 17,219 18,552 19,196 19,887 20,626 Crude oil 3,414 2,618 3,232 3,879 3,007 2,315 1,566 1,014 1,239 Uranium ore** 7,884 7,662 10,931 15,544 12,183 8,991 8,865 8,902 8,902 Hydroelectric power 901 464 906 991 1,111 1,113 1,115 1,117 1,118 Wind energy 25 94 772 1,324 1,876 2,342 2,777 3,209 3,641 Solar energy 28 40 252 642 1,033 1,861 2,747 3,641 4,377 Biofuel and waste 1,565 2,606 4,394 4,290 4,388 5,429 6,331 7,001 9,062 Total 69,477 45,721 66,432 74,411 69,707 74,329 75,693 77,860 81,472 Share in the structure of TPES 56.7% 51.1% 64.4% 72.4% 71.3% 73.5% 73.7% 74.9% 77.3% * Statistical data ** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.2

72 Table A.6.2.3 Import of energy resources, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal 9,926 9,940 9,020 8,146 9,049 9,073 10,629 10,995 10,856 Gas 26,590 13,288 15,423 12,911 9,928 7,296 4,812 2,084 0 Crude oil and oil products 9,995 8,125 9,263 8,835 9,975 10,655 10,384 9,808 7,757 Uranium ore** 15,769 15,323 6,021 0 0 0 0 0 0 Electricity 8 193 63 57 44 33 23 11 2 Biofuel and waste 1 30 0,3 0,4 0,2 0,2 0,1 0,0 0 Total 62,289 46,899 39,790 29,948 28,997 27,057 25,848 22,898 18,616 Share in the structure of TPES* 50.9% 52.0% 38.6% 29.1% 29.7% 26.8% 25.2% 22.0% 17.7% * The sum of shares of energy resources extraction and import in the structure of TPES is more than 100%, since the export of energy resources in TPES is calculated with the minus sign. ** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.2

Table A.6.2.4 Final Energy Consumption, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal 9,212 5,952 6,278 7,371 7,973 8,850 9,588 10,223 10,662 Gas 21,698 13,741 14,804 14,224 12,586 12,679 11,887 10,061 9,566 Crude oil and oil products 11,347 8,776 10,619 10,921 11,591 11,688 10,749 9,599 7,749 Heat 11,865 7,526 9,984 9,669 9,335 8,737 7,764 6,980 6,173 Electricity 11,840 10,233 11,813 12,284 12,459 13,795 15,235 16,607 17,482 Biofuel and waste 1,029 1,282 1,051 1,057 855 1,011 1,411 1,879 3,630 Solar energy 0 0 0 0 0 279 1,492 3,414 5,396 Total 66,991 47,510 54,548 55,525 54,800 57,039 58,125 58,763 60,658 Share of direct RES consumption** 1.5% 2.7% 1.9% 1.9% 1.6% 2.3% 5.0% 9.0% 14.9% Conditional share of RES that is considered*** 2.6% 4.0% 6.6% 8.2% 9.9% 12.9% 17.7% 23.5% 30.8% * Statistical data ** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4. *** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4.

Table A.6.2.5 Final Energy Consumption by sectors, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Industry 24,844 16,408 17,992 20,172 20,794 22,578 23,941 25,100 25,766 Households 23,467 16,555 18,563 16,790 14,542 14,091 13,513 13,523 13,842 Transport 11,448 8,749 10,856 11,481 12,117 12,661 12,660 11,608 11,831 Service sector 5,037 3,838 5,248 4,964 5,020 5,181 5,347 5,741 6,093 Agriculture 2,195 1,960 1,889 2,117 2,326 2,528 2,664 2,791 3,125 Total 66,991 47,510 54,548 55,525 54,800 57,039 58,125 58,763 60,658 * Statistical data

Table A.6.2.6 Final Energy Consumption by industry, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Biofuel and waste 46 86 52 73 94 123 153 184 211 Heat from RES 5 10 280 348 407 600 736 771 905 Electricity from RES 325 232 856 1,335 1,766 2,325 2,848 3,246 3,651 Coal 8,310 5,569 5,445 6,670 7,371 8,307 9,170 9,934 10,558 Electricity 5,102 4,065 4,982 5,065 4,618 4,786 4,849 4,696 4,514 Gas 5,272 2,762 2,151 2,381 2,371 2,417 2,432 2,474 2,467 Heat 4,538 2,870 3,168 3,168 3,027 2,845 2,571 2,441 2,139 Crude oil and oil products 12,46 814 1,058 1,132 1,142 1,176 1,182 1,352 1,322 Total 24,844 16,408 17,992 20,172 20,794 22,578 23,941 25,100 25,766 Share of direct RES consumption** 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% Conditional share of RES that is considered*** 1.5% 2.0% 6.6% 8.7% 10.9% 13.5% 15.6% 16.7% 18.5% * Statistical data ** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4. *** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4.

73 Table A.6.2.7 Final Energy Consumption by households, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Biofuel and waste 936 1,097 430 319 225 137 39 0 0 Solar energy 0 0 0 0 0 170 1,091 2,426 3,713 Heat from RES 5 10 317 346 361 433 423 387 406 Electricity from RES 198 172 462 619 812 1,032 1,244 1,465 1,705 Coal 715 303 646 566 510 418 324 195 16 Electricity 3,105 3,012 2,690 2,349 2,124 2,124 2,117 2,119 2,108 Gas 13,760 9,083 10,419 9,446 7,823 7,722 6,794 5,707 4,934 Heat 4,677 2,864 3,588 3,146 2,687 2,056 1,480 1,224 960 Crude oil and oil products 71 14 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 23,467 16,555 18,563 16,790 14,542 14,091 13,513 13,523 13,842 Share of direct RES consumption** 4.0% 6.6% 2.3% 1.9% 1.5% 2.2% 8.4% 17.9% 26.8% Conditional share of RES that is considered*** 4.9% 7.7% 6.5% 7.6% 9.6% 12.6% 20.7% 31.6% 42.1% * Statistical data ** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4. *** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4.

Table A.6.2.8 Final Energy Consumption by transport, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Biofuel and waste 0 34 239 491 447 422 612 756 1,213 Electricity from RES 48 32 108 168 247 380 637 1,031 1,274 Coal 12 4 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 Electricity 750 553 630 636 645 783 1,084 1,492 1,575 Gas 2,050 1,572 1,574 1,778 1,820 1,984 2,015 1,119 1,414 Crude oil and oil products 8,588 65,54 8,295 8,397 8,947 9,080 8,301 7,198 6,343 Total 11,448 8,749 10,856 11,481 12,117 12,661 12,660 11,608 11,831 Share of direct RES consumption** 0.0% 0.4% 2.2% 4.3% 3.7% 3.3% 4.8% 6.5% 10.3% Conditional share of RES that is considered*** 0.4% 0.7% 3.2% 5.7% 5.7% 6.3% 9.9% 15.4% 21.0% * Statistical data ** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4. *** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4.

Table A.6.2.9 Final Energy Consumption by service sector, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Biofuel and waste 27 46 311 152 66 82 78 78 79 Solar energy 0 0 0 0 0 109 400 988 1,683 Heat from RES 2 5 191 233 298 425 483 422 387 Electricity from RES 119 101 264 375 527 654 769 885 991 Coal 161 67 164 110 67 100 70 72 74 Gas 463 195 556 503 445 432 527 656 716 Crude oil and oil products 78 92 63 48 21 20 21 22 23 Heat 2,326 1,555 2,163 2,120 2,217 2,014 1,689 1,337 915 Electricity 1,861 1,777 1,536 1,423 1,379 1,346 1,310 1,281 1,226 Total 5,037 3,838 5,248 4,964 5,020 5,181 5,347 5,741 6,093 Share of direct RES consumption** 0.5% 1.2% 5.9% 3.1% 1.3% 3.7% 8.9% 18.6% 28.9% Conditional share of RES that is considered*** 2.9% 4.0% 14.6% 15.3% 17.7% 24.5% 32.4% 41.3% 51.5% * Statistical data ** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4. *** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4.

Table A.6.2.10 Final Energy Consumption by agriculture, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Biofuel and waste 20 19 19 21 23 248 529 861 2,127 Heat from RES 0 1 23 31 40 63 85 95 137 Electricity from RES 20 16 42 66 95 119 140 160 196 Coal 14 9 12 13 15 13 11 9 1 Electricity 312 273 242 249 248 246 239 231 243 74 Сontinuation of the table A.6.2.10 2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Gas 153 129 104 115 126 126 119 105 36 Heat 312 211 255 278 299 301 296 302 324 Crude oil and oil products 1,364 1,302 1,194 1,345 1,481 1,412 1,245 1,027 62 Total 2,195 1,960 1,889 2,117 2,326 2,528 2,664 2,791 3,125 Share of direct RES consumption** 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 9.8% 19.9% 30.9% 68.0% Conditional share of RES that is considered*** 1.8% 1.8% 4.4% 5.5% 6.8% 17.0% 28.3% 40.0% 78.7% * Statistical data ** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4. *** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4.

Table A.6.2.11 Production of electricity, billion kWh

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 NPP (existing ones) 90 88 65 52 32 20 13 13 13 NPP (new) 0 0 0 7 14 14 20 20 20 TPP (existing ones) 79 58 42 19 2 0 0 0 0 TPP (existing modernised) 0 0 0.9 5 9 26 27 27 27 TPP (new, coal) 0 0 18 29 39 39 39 39 39 TPP (new, gas) 0 0 5 7 9 7 7 7 7 CHPP and isolated generating plants 18 8 26 28 31 32 34 36 33 HPP and PSPP (large ones) 11 7 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 HPP (small ones) 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 WPP (ground mounted) 0.3 1.1 9 15 22 27 32 37 42 SPP (ground mounted) 0.3 0.5 3 5 7 9 12 14 16 SPP (roof mounted) 0 0 0.3 3 5 12 20 28 35 Geothermal Power Plant 0 0 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 Bio CHP/TPP 0 0.1 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 Total 199 162 182 186 187 205 224 242 253 Share of RES 6.0% 5.4% 14.7% 20.9% 27.7% 32.7% 37.0% 40.9% 44.7% * Statistical data

Table A.6.2.12 Rated capacity of thermal power plants, GW

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 NPP (existing ones) 13.8 13.8 10 8 5 3 2 2 2 NPP (new) 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 3 3 TPP (existing ones) 25.4 25.5 25 24 22 18 12 7 1 TPP (existing modernised) 0 0 0.2 1 2 6 7 7 6 TPP (new, coal) 0 0 4 7 9 9 9 9 9 TPP (new, gas) 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 CHPP and isolated generating plants 8.0 7.7 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 HPP and PSPP (large ones) 5.5 6.1 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 HPP (small ones) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 WPP (ground mounted) 0.2 0.5 3 5 7 8 10 11 13 SPP (ground mounted) 0.3 0.8 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 SPP (roof mounted) 0 0 0.3 3 5 12 19 27 33 Geothermal Power Plant 0 0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Bio CHP/TPP 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 Storage capacities 0 0 3 7 11 18 26 34 40 Total 53.3 54.6 67 80 92 107 120 134 143 Share of RES 11.5% 13.9% 23.9% 32.7% 40.3% 51.5% 61.9% 69.8% 76.3% * Statistical data

75 Table A.6.2.13 Capital investments in electric power industry facilities, million EUR

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 NPP (existing ones)* 0 234 234 0 934 0 0 NPP (new) 0 1,625 4,680 0 6500 0 0 TPP (existing ones) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TPP (existing modernised) 184 964 1,125 4,325 388 0 214 TPP (new, coal) 6,405 3,735 3,480 0 0 0 0 TPP (new, gas) 980 800 50 0 0 0 0 CHPP and isolated generating plants 3,502 1,317 1,140 1,096 1,345 807 598 HPP and PSPP (large ones) 95 0 280 0 0 0 0 HPP (small ones) 601 53 57 17 17 17 0 WPP (ground mounted) 3,012 2,165 2,100 1,885 3,776 3,254 3,105 SPP (ground mounted) 2,257 1,661 1,587 1,563 1,394 1,262 1,933 SPP (roof mounted) 334 1,894 1,814 4,816 4,832 4,440 3,338 Geothermal Power Plant 249 14 101 0 0 108 11 Bio CHP/TPP 2,913 151 234 224 216 311 731 Storage capacities 1,126 1,030 724 971 1,133 1,085 814 Total 21,657 15,642 17,606 14,897 20,535 11,283 10,743 Share of RES 48.9% 44.5% 39.2% 63.6% 55.4% 92.8% 92.4% * Investments to extend the life time of the operating units of NPPs

Table A.6.2.14 Total thermal energy production by type of fuel, thousand toe

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Biomass and waste 14 37 986 1,169 1,387 1,963 2,294 2,387 2,644 “Clean” utilized heat (CUH)* 0 1 2 4 7 15 142 196 208 Coal 620 705 3,676 4,511 4,915 5,250 5,606 5,740 5,187 Electricity 19 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Gas 12,830 9,869 7,388 6,045 5,351 4,059 2,817 2,343 1,460 Oil products 6 6 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 Nuclear energy 163 160 119 114 105 78 90 91 91 Total 13,652 10,853 12,176 11,848 11,768 11,366 10,949 10,756 9,589 Share of RES (including, CUH) 0.1% 0.4% 8.1% 9.9% 11.8% 17.4% 22.2% 24.0% 29.7% * “Clean” recovered heat is thermal energy obtained from recovery boilers, cooling installations, water heaters, etc. which operate on the basis of the following energy resources: a) heat departed from the cooling systems of the production units (blast furnaces and open-hearth furnaces, pyrite furnaces, gas generators, heating furnaces, etc.); b) sensible heat of production products including rejected heat at the intermediate stages of the technological process (heat of hot coke, heated metal, refined products, chemical products); c) waste-gas heat from industrial furnaces and boiler units, waste slag heat, etc.; d) heat of steam exhausted from the heat installations: presses, steam drives of pumps and compensators, etc.

Table A.6.2.15 Energy consumption by boiler houses of Central Heating Units (CHU) and autoproducers of thermal energy (boiler houses and cogeneration plants), thousand toe

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Biomass 536 594 1,120 1,265 1,398 1,745 1,907 1,696 1,671 Coal 1,402 1,278 4,229 4,930 5,585 6,475 7,079 7,576 7,110 Electricity 63 147 7 1 0,2 0,04 0 0 0 Gas 10,458 8,206 4,816 3,481 2,600 1,285 538 305 133 Oil products 128 174 149 115 75 40 0 0 0 Total 12,587 10,398 10,320 9,791 9,658 9,545 9,524 9,577 8,914 Share of RES 4.3% 5.7% 10.9% 12.9% 14.5% 18.3% 20.0% 17.7% 18.7%

Table A.6.2.16 Capital investments in thermal energy production, million EUR

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Boiler houses of CHUs 459 163 100 229 4 62 0 Boiler plants 200 72 12 76 89 3 2 Heat recovery units 0.004 190 209 168 176 155 157 Total 659 425 321 473 269 220 159

76 Table A.6.2.17 Greenhouse gas emissions*, million tons CO2-equivalent

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Agriculture 6 6 6 9 13 16 18 19 16 Service sector 8 8 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 Electricity and heat production sector 105 74 79 73 68 77 76 75 72 Industry 101 73 86 98 99 103 108 113 116 Households 37 36 33 30 25 24 21 17 14 Supply sector 73 40 54 56 52 59 60 60 61 Transport 21 19 20 22 24 24 22 18 17 Total 353 255 289 297 290 313 315 313 307 % of 1990 43.2% 31.2% 35.4% 36.4% 35.6% 38.4% 38.6% 38.4% 37.6% * GHG emissions include emissions from “Energy sector” and “Industrial Processes Sector” as they are understood by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Table A.6.2.18 Energy intensity and carbon intensity

Indicators 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Primary energy intensity, toe/$1,000 2010 GDP (PPP) 0.33 0.29 0.28 0.22 0.17 0.15 0.13 0.12 0.11 Final energy intensity, toe/$1,000 2010 GDP (PPP) 0.18 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.06

Carbon intensity, t CO2-equivalent/$1,000 2010 GDP (PPP) 0.95 0.82 0.80 0.64 0.51 0.45 0.39 0.35 0.31 Primary energy intensity, toe/person 2.69 2.09 2.32 2.35 2.29 2.42 2.52 2.61 2.71 Final energy intensity, toe/person 1.47 1.11 1.23 1.27 1.28 1.37 1.42 1.47 1.56

Carbon intensity, t CO2-equivalent/person 7.76 5.97 6.51 6.80 6.79 7.50 7.72 7.85 7.89

Table A.6.2.19 Costs and investments, million EUR*

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Cost of fuel 20,405 13,500 10,334 9,763 9,569 9,647 9,180 8,380 7,296 New capital investments in electricity and heat production technologies - 7 1,856 3,063 4,317 5,410 6,300 6,835 7,087 New capital investments in final energy consumption technologies - 3,750 12,411 22,049 28,282 31,697 33,290 34,217 35,318 New capital investments in intermediate technologies - 21 445 982 1,420 2,004 2,629 2,966 3,083 Costs of transportation, supply and intermediate technologies 1,614 1,307 1,714 2,336 2,710 3,436 4,217 4,639 4,735 Maintenance expenses (electric energy and heat production) 1,515 1,592 2,336 2,996 3,665 4,071 4,768 5,371 5,718 Maintenance expenses (final energy consumption technologies) 2,880 3,067 5,429 9,657 13,803 17,516 20,304 22,165 23,633 Subsidies (feed-in-tariff) 157 286 2,113 3,619 3,673 0 0 0 0 Total 26,414 23,254 36,372 54,219 67,257 74,882 80,688 84,573 86,870 * See the explanation below the Table A.6.1.19

A.6.3 Revolutionary Scenario Table A.6.3.1 Total primary energy supply, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal 42,718 27,344 35,081 31,508 27,427 28,773 26,905 24,156 3,706 Gas 43,018 26,055 33,355 28,954 24,394 21,453 19,196 15,564 12,261 Crude oil and oil products 11,609 10,551 11,293 9,959 8,440 6,986 5,222 2,849 1,224 Nuclear energy 23,653 22,985 16,951 13,738 8,551 5,339 21 0 0 Electricity -987 -116 -47 -144 -97 -80 -57 -33 2 Hydroelectric power 901 464 905 989 1,071 1,071 1,110 1,111 1,114 Wind energy 25 94 772 3,877 6,836 8,124 10,058 11,282 13,996 Solar energy 28 40 252 1,099 1,946 3,268 4,881 7,332 11,342 Biofuel and waste 1,522 1,465 5,857 8,226 10,808 13,863 17,818 20,832 29,136 Total 122,487 89,519** 10,4419 98,203 89,376 88,801 85,154 83,093 72,782 Share of RES (including, large HPP and PSPP) 2.0% 2.3% 7.5% 14.4% 23.1% 29.6% 39.8% 48.8% 76.4% * Statistical data ** Thermal energy was not taken into account as primary energy

77 Table A.6.3.2 Domestic extraction (production) of energy resources, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal 40,256 17,423 27,755 25,543 24,549 23,629 18,313 15,514 2,951 Gas 15,403 14,814 16,247 16,736 17,219 18,552 19,196 15,564 12,261 Crude oil 3,414 2,618 3,232 3,442 963 1,087 890 615 375 Uranium ore** 7,884 7,662 10,931 13,738 8,551 5,339 21 0 0 Hydroelectric power 901 464 905 989 1,071 1,071 1,110 1,111 1,114 Wind energy 25 94 772 3,877 6,836 8,124 10,058 11,282 13,996 Solar energy 28 40 252 1,099 1,946 3,268 4,881 7,332 11,342 Biofuel and waste 1,565 2,606 6,247 8,241 10,650 13,206 16,321 18,032 24,734 Total 69,477 45,721 66,341 73,664 71,784 74,274 70,790 69,450 66,774 Share in the structure of TPES 56.7% 51.1% 63.5% 75.0% 80.3% 83.6% 83.1% 83.6% 91.7% * Statistical data ** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.2

Table A.6.3.3 Import of energy resources, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal 9,926 9,940 8,017 6,488 3,214 5,380 8,745 8,734 754 Gas 26,590 13,288 17,108 12,218 7,175 2,902 0 0 0 Crude oil and oil products 9,995 8,125 9,250 7,123 7,640 6,046 4,433 2,294 893 Uranium ore** 15,769 15,323 6,021 0 0 0 0 0 0 Electricity 8 193 206 54 32 14 2 2 2 Biofuel and waste 1 30 0,3 0,4 0,2 0,2 0,1 0,03 0 Total 62,289 46,899 40,603 25,883 18,061 14,342 13,181 11,030 1,650 Share in the structure of TPES 50.9% 52.0% 38.9% 26.4% 20.2% 16.2% 15.5% 13.3% 2.3% * Statistical data. The sum of shares of energy resources extraction and import in the structure of TPES is more than 100%, since the export of energy resources in TPES is calculated with the minus sign. ** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.2

Table A.6.3.4 Final Energy Consumption (FEC), thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal** 9,212 5,952 6,270 6,301 6,032 5,419 4,006 2,790 621 Gas 21,698 13,741 14,417 12,353 9,167 7,615 6,748 4,562 460 Crude oil and oil products 11,347 8,776 10,240 8,988 7,361 5,874 4,132 1,706 3 Heat 11,865 7,526 10,054 10,173 10,543 10,340 9,851 9,583 9,050 Electricity 11,840 10,233 11,874 13,631 14,966 17,420 20,369 23,832 27,212 Biofuel and waste 1,029 1,282 1,891 3,318 4,724 5,696 6,264 6,220 7,335 Solar energy 0 0 0 0 163 657 1,490 2,790 4,316 Total 66,991 47,510 54,746 54,765 52,957 53,020 52,860 51,483 48,998 Share of direct RES consumption*** 1.5% 2.7% 3.5% 6.1% 9.2% 12.0% 14.7% 17.5% 23.8% Conditional share of RES that is considered**** 2.5% 4.0% 8.8% 19.0% 30.3% 40.1% 51.6% 64.1% 90.6%

* Statistical data ** In this scenario, coal remains at the level of 1%; it is used in “conditional” industrial processes (and а little in the service sector) which by their specialization do not belong to industrial types of activities or service sector. In this case, it is difficult to identify where exactly coal is consumed. The same applies to gas. Theoretically, they may be disregarded, but in practice it is necessary to conduct more detailed studies on the replacement of fossil fuels with renewable energy sources, first of all, in industry. *** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4 **** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4

Table A.6.3.5 Final Energy Consumption by sectors, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Industry 24,844 16,408 18,034 19,415 19,544 20,077 20,206 19,720 18,825 Households 23,467 16,555 18,568 16,991 15,170 14,807 14,403 14,039 13,723 Transport 11,448 8,749 10,768 10,756 10,266 9,918 9,868 9,032 7,390 Service sector 5,037 3,838 5,236 5,258 5,415 5,436 5,433 5,625 5,883 Agriculture 2,195 1,960 2,140 2,346 2,562 2,782 2,950 3,068 3,176 Total 66,991 47,510 54,746 54,765 52,957 53,020 52,860 51,483 48,998 * Statistical data

78 Table A.6.3.6 Final Energy Consumption by industry, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Biofuel and waste 46 86 88 170 278 478 680 889 1,235 Heat from RES 5 10 344 611 812 1,268 1,693 1,953 2,335 Electricity from RES 325 232 952 2,811 4,554 5,728 7,401 9,132 12,946 Coal** 8,310 5,569 5,444 5,575 5,439 4,910 3,739 2,603 547 Electricity 5,102 4,065 4,921 4,484 3,320 3,374 3,116 3,038 983 Gas 5,272 2,762 2,146 2,059 1,830 1,552 1,152 776 276 Heat 4,538 2,870 3,084 2,815 2,538 2,090 1,516 1,106 503 Crude oil and oil products 12,46 814 1,055 891 774 676 909 223 0 Total 24,844 16,408 18,034 19,415 19,544 20,077 20,206 19,720 18,825 Share of direct RES consumption*** 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.9% 1.4% 2.4% 3.4% 4.5% 6.6% Conditional share of RES that is considered**** 1.5% 2.0% 7.7% 18.5% 28.9% 37.2% 48.4% 60.7% 87.7% * Statistical data ** See the explanation below the table A.6.3.4 *** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4 **** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4

Table A.6.3.7 Final Energy Consumption by households, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Biofuel and waste 936 1097 430 319 225 137 39 0 0 Solar energy 0 0 0 0 163 642 1,372 2,265 3,304 Heat from RES 5 10 399 734 1,110 1,739 2,377 2,980 3,873 Electricity from RES 198 172 512 1,145 1,782 2,251 2,990 3,763 5,309 Coal 715 303 638 578 510 395 176 109 0 Electricity 3,105 3,012 2,645 1,827 1,299 1,325 1,259 1,252 403 Gas 13,760 9,083 10,351 9,012 6,609 5,450 4,061 1,981 0 Heat 4,677 2,864 3,572 3,378 3,471 2,867 2,129 1,689 834 Crude oil and oil products 71 14 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 23,467 16,555 18,568 16,991 15,170 14,807 14,403 14,039 13,723 Share of direct RES consumption** 4.0% 6.6% 2.3% 1.9% 2.6% 5.3% 9.8% 16.1% 24.1% Conditional share of RES that is considered*** 4.9% 7.7% 7.2% 12.9% 21.6% 32.2% 47.1% 64.2% 91.0% * Statistical data ** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4 *** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4

Table A.6.3.8 Final Energy Consumption by transport, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Biofuel and waste 0 34 950 2,207 3,169 3,521 3,663 3,306 3,787 Electricity from RES 48 32 120 363 724 1,098 1,632 2,251 3,346 Coal 12 4 11 11 12 12 10 5 0 Electricity 750 553 620 580 528 647 687 749 254 Gas 2,050 1,572 1,250 670 220 214 1,191 1,522 0,1 Crude oil and oil products 8,588 6,554 7,818 6,924 5,613 4,426 2,684 1,199 3 Total 11,448 8,749 10,768 10,756 10,266 9,918 9,868 9,032 7,390 Share of direct RES consumption** 0.0% 0.4% 8.8% 20.5% 30.9% 35.5% 37.1% 36.6% 51.2% Conditional share of RES that is considered*** 0.4% 0.7% 9.9% 23.9% 37.9% 46.6% 53.7% 61.5% 96.5% * Statistical data ** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4 *** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4

Table A.6.3.9 Final Energy Consumption by service sector, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Biofuel and waste 27 46 311 218 313 440 391 180 80 Solar energy 0 0 0 0 0 14 118 525 1012 Heat from RES 2 5 236 411 545 747 901 897 850 Electricity from RES 119 101 293 806 1,387 1,642 2,018 2,410 3,252 Coal 161 67 164 130 67 100 79 72 74

79 Сontinuation of the table A.6.3.9 2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Gas 463 195 542 488 388 295 267 233 184 Crude oil and oil products 78 92 60 28 0 0 2 0 0 Heat 2,326 1,555 2,117 1,892 1,704 1,231 807 508 183 Electricity 1,861 1,777 1,513 1,286 1,011 967 849 802 247 Total 5,037 3,838 5,236 5,258 5,415 5,436 5,433 5,625 5,883 Share of direct RES consumption** 0.5% 1.2% 5.9% 4.1% 5.8% 8.4% 9.4% 12.5% 18.6% Conditional share of RES that is considered*** 2.9% 4.0% 16.0% 27.3% 41.5% 52.3% 63.1% 71.3% 88.3% * Statistical data ** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4 *** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4

Table A.6.3.10 Final Energy Consumption by agriculture, thousand toe

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Biofuel and waste 20 19 112 404 739 1,119 1,491 1,845 2,232 Solar energy 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Heat from RES 0.3 1 30 59 88 150 226 288 388 Electricity from RES 20 16 49 127 208 245 293 327 439 Coal 14 9 13 7 4 2 1 1 0 Electricity 312 273 251 203 152 144 123 109 33 Gas 153 129 128 125 120 104 77 51 0 Heat 312 211 272 274 275 247 202 163 84 Crude oil and oil products 1,364 1,302 1,286 1,146 974 771 536 285 0 Total 2,195 1,960 2,140 2,346 2,562 2,782 2,950 3,068 3,176 Share of direct RES consumption** 0.9% 1.0% 5.2% 17.2% 28.8% 40.2% 50.5% 60.1% 70.3% Conditional share of RES that is considered*** 1.8% 1.8% 8.9% 25.2% 40.4% 54.4% 68.1% 80.2% 96.3% * Statistical data ** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4 *** See the explanation below the table A.6.1.4

Table A.6.3.11 Production of electricity, billion kWh

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 NPP (existing ones) 90 88 65 52 32 20 0.1 0 0 NPP (new) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TPP (existing ones) 79 58 42 20 2 1 1 1 0 TPP (existing modernised) 0 0 1 5 9 24 31 32 0 TPP (new, coal) 0 0 19 25 26 26 26 26 0 TPP (new, gas) 0 0 7 4 1 0 4 0 7 CHPP and isolated generating plants 18 8 18 18 20 21 23 25 19 HPP and PSPP (large ones) 11 7 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 HPP (small ones) 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 WPP (ground mounted) 0.3 1.1 9 45 80 94 117 131 163 SPP (ground mounted) 0.3 0.5 3 10 17 27 40 63 96 SPP (roof mounted) 0 0 0.3 3 5 11 17 23 36 Geothermal Power Plant 0 0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.126 1 Bio CHP/TPP 0 0.1 7 8 9 10 14 18 31 Total 199 162 180 200 214 247 285 330 366 Share of RES 6.0% 5.4% 16.2% 38.5% 57.8% 62.9% 70.4% 75.0% 92.9% * Statistical data

Table A.6.3.12 Installed capacity of thermal power plants, GW

2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 NPP (existing ones) 13.8 14 10 8 5 3 0.01 0 0 NPP (new) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TPP (existing ones) 25 25 25 24 22 18 12 7 1 TPP (existing modernised) 0 0 0 1 2 6 7 7 7

80 Сontinuation of the table A.6.3.12 2012* 2015* 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 TPP (new, coal) 0 0 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 TPP (new, gas) 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 CHPP and isolated generating plants 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 HPP and PSPP (large ones) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 HPP (small ones) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 WPP (ground mounted) 0.2 1 3 14 24 28 35 39 52 SPP (ground mounted) 0.3 1 3 10 17 25 35 56 91 SPP (roof mounted) 0 0 0.3 3 5 10 16 21 34 Geothermal Power Plant 0 0 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.2 Bio CHP/TPP 0.01 0.1 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.4 3.2 4.1 7.3 Storage capacities 0 0 2.7 14 25 37 52 73 114 Total 53 55 66 98 125 151 183 229 327 Share of RES 11.5% 13.9% 25.0% 49.5% 63.2% 72.1% 81.1% 87.2% 93.0% * Statistical data

Table A.6.3.13 Capital investments in electric power industry facilities, million EUR

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 NPP (existing ones)* 0 234 234 0 0 0 0 NPP (new) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TPP (existing ones) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TPP (existing modernised) 184 964 1,125 3,678 1,964 0 0 TPP (new, coal) 7,070 1,765 308 0 0 0 0 TPP (new, gas) 1,280 0 0 0 0 0 800 CHPP and isolated generating plants 840 665 488 524 1,254 720 962 HPP and PSPP (large ones) 95 0 0 0 280 0 0 HPP (small ones) 587 42 18 0 35 0 34 WPP (ground mounted) 3,012 12,339 10,715 4,776 10,010 14,065 20,504 SPP (ground mounted) 2,257 5,859 5,554 5,852 7,246 12,132 19,921 SPP (roof mounted) 334 1,894 1,814 3,749 3,334 3,023 7,416 Geothermal Power Plant 62 14 0 0 12 48 443 Bio CHP/TPP 5,015 686 999 734 2,229 2,319 8,632 Storage capacities 1,126 2,952 2,001 1,542 1,900 2,963 4,120 Total 21,862 27,413 23,254 20,854 28,265 35,269 62,832 Share of RES 57.1% 86.8% 90.7% 79.9% 88.6% 98.0% 97.2% * Investments to extend the life time of the operating units of NPPs

Table A.6.3.14 Total thermal energy production by type of fuel, thousand toe

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Biomass and waste 14 37 1,165 1,696 2,285 3,335 4,933 6,835 10,192 “Clean” utilized heat (CUH)* 0 1 2 285 470 898 1,045 1,210 1,213 Coal 620 705 1,722 1,670 1,613 1,694 1,742 1,708 0 Electricity 19 75 23 37 52 111 183 235 234 Gas 12,830 9,869 8,593 7,314 6,876 5,130 3,428 2,615 2,223 Oil products 6 6 6 4 2 2 1 0 0 Nuclear energy 163 160 119 97 71 44 0,2 0 0 Total 13,652 10,853 11,630 11,103 11,368 11,214 11,331 12,604 13,862 Share of RES (including, CUH) 0.1% 0.4% 10.0% 17.8% 24.2% 37.8% 52.8% 63.8% 82.3% * See the explanation below the table A.6.2.14

81 Table A.6.3.15 Energy consumption by boiler houses of Central Heating Units (CHU) and autoproducers of thermal energy (boiler houses and cogeneration plants), thousand toe

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Biomass 536 594 775 1,242 1,520 2,345 3,046 3,183 3,296 Coal 1,402 1,278 2,284 1,927 1,881 2,890 2,939 2,632 0 Electricity 63 147 35 56 79 155 250 312 311 Gas 10,458 8,206 6,215 5,107 4,619 3,071 1,603 1,120 1,372 Oil products 128 174 142 105 98 59 34 13 0 Total 12,587 10,398 9,450 8,436 8,197 8,520 7,871 7,260 4,979 Share of RES 4.3% 5.7% 8.2% 14.7% 18.5% 27.5% 38.7% 43.8% 66.2%

Table A.6.3.16 Capital investments in thermal energy production, million EUR

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Boiler houses of CHUs 215 81 594 300 149 43 4 Boiler plants 257 230 53 200 108 44 217 Heat recovery units 0 180 172 162 150 108 89 Total 471 491 819 661 407 196 310

Table A.6.3.17 Greenhouse gas emissions*, million tons CO2-equivalent

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Agriculture 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 0,4 Service sector 8 8 9 7 5 3 3 2 1 Electricity and heat production sector 105 74 81 70 58 68 74 71 14 Industry 101 73 86 82 79 76 66 56 45 Households 37 36 33 28 21 17 12 6 0 Supply sector 73 40 51 46 43 44 40 37 23 Transport 21 19 18 17 15 12 9 5 1 Total 353 255 284 257 227 225 207 181 85 % of 1990 43.2% 31.2% 34.8% 31.4% 27.8% 27.5% 25.4% 22.1% 10.4% * GHG emissions include emissions from “Energy sector” and “Industrial Processes Sector” as they are understood by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Table A.6.3.18 Energy intensity and carbon intensity

Indicators 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Primary energy intensity, toe/$1,000 2010 GDP (PPP) 0.33 0.29 0.29 0.21 0.16 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.07 Final energy intensity, toe/$1,000 2010 GDP (PPP) 0.18 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05

Carbon intensity, t CO2-equivalent /$1,000 2010 GDP (PPP) 0.95 0.82 0.78 0.55 0.40 0.33 0.26 0.20 0.09 Primary energy intensity, toe/person 2.69 2.09 2.35 2.25 2.09 2.13 2.09 2.08 1.87 Final energy intensity, toe/person 1.47 1.11 1.23 1.25 1.24 1.27 1.30 1.29 1.26

Carbon intensity, t CO2-equivalent/person 7.76 5.97 6.39 5.88 5.31 5.38 5.08 4.53 2.19

Table A.6.3.19 Costs and investments, million EUR*

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Cost of fuel 20,405 13,500 10,866 9,246 8,322 7,204 6,150 4,934 4,123 New capital investments in electricity and heat production technologies - 7 1,957 4,735 6,990 8,639 10,395 11,563 14,801 New capital investments in final energy consumption technologies - 3,750 12,408 23,085 30,593 35,162 36,707 37,827 41,277 New capital investments in intermediate technologies - 21 460 1,285 1,729 2,308 2,807 3,083 3,345 Costs of transportation, supply and intermediate technologies 1,614 1,307 1,743 2,346 2,758 3,472 4,184 4,628 4,798 Maintenance expenses (electric energy and heat production) 1,515 1,592 2,260 3,053 3,698 4,216 5,049 5,878 7,081 Maintenance expenses (final energy consumption technologies) 2,880 3,067 5,392 9,686 14,430 18,559 21,565 23,892 26,155 Subsidies (feed-in-tariff) 157 286 2,445 7,621 8,827 0 0 0 0 Total 26,414 23,254 37,265 60,814 77,164 81,958 86,856 91,805 101,579 * See the explanation below the table A.6.1.19

82 Annex A.7 Sectoral effects of implementing energy policy measures Table A.7.1 Sectoral effects of implementing energy policy measures within the Liberal Scenario (deviation of output volumes from the Reference (Conservative) Scenario, %)

Sector/Period 2018 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.6 3.8 4.8 Mining of coal, lignite, and extraction of peat; mining of uranium and thorium ores -1.7 -3.5 -7.9 -12.1 -19.9 -26.6 Extraction of hydrocarbons and related services -0.8 -1.2 -2.3 -3.6 -6.7 -9.8 Extraction of mineral resources, other than fossil fuels 0.6 1.5 3.3 4.7 6.7 8.1 Manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco products 0.2 1.1 3.1 4.7 7.2 9.0 Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather, leather goods and other materials -0.1 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.1 Manufacture of products of wood, paper products, and printing 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.4 3.9 6.4 Manufacture of coke and coke products 0.5 0.3 -0.1 -0.8 -2.2 -3.6 Manufacture of refined petroleum products -0.9 -1.6 -3.4 -5.2 -8.8 -12.1 Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products -0.3 0.8 3.0 4.8 7.8 10.3 Production of essential medicines and pharmaceuticals 0.0 0.6 1.9 3.0 4.4 5.4 Manufacture of rubber and plastics products and other non-metallic mineral products 0.7 1.4 2.9 4.0 5.4 5.9 Manufacture of metals and fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment 1.4 2.1 3.6 4.9 7.0 8.7 Manufacture of computers, electronic and optical products 0.5 0.1 -0.8 -1.7 -3.4 -4.8 Manufacture of electrical equipment 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.1 Manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.2 -0.4 Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, and other vehicles 0.7 0.4 -0.3 -1.0 -2.2 -3.2 Manufacture of furniture, other products, repair and installation of machinery and equipment 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.7 2.3 2.8 Generation and distribution of electricity 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.5 3.6 4.2 Manufacture and distribution of gas -2.4 -4.3 -9.2 -13.8 -22.4 -30.0 Steam and hot water supply 1.3 3.4 8.3 12.8 20.4 23.9 Water supply; sewage, waste management 0.9 2.4 5.7 8.5 13.0 16.3 Construction 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.4 Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.4 3.4 4.1 Transport, warehousing, postal and courier activities 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.1 Temporary accommodation and food service activities 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.2 Publishing activities, motion picture, video and television programme production, music publishing, television programming and broadcasting activities -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 Telecommunications (electrical communication) 0.0 0.5 1.4 2.1 3.1 3.6 Computer programming and provision of other information services -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -1.5 -2.3 Financial and insurance activities 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 Real estate activities 0.2 1.0 2.7 3.9 5.7 6.8 Legal and accounting activities; activities of head offices; management consultancy activities; architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 Scientific research and development 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.8 2.4 2.9 Advertising and market research, other professional, scientific and technical activities; veterinary activities -0.1 0.3 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.3 Administrative and support service activities 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.1 3.1 3.7 Public administration and defense; compulsory social security 0.2 1.3 3.8 5.8 9.1 11.5 Education 0.5 1.8 4.7 7.2 11.2 14.1 Human health and social work activities 0.3 1.6 4.4 6.7 10.4 13.1 Arts, sports, entertainment and recreation 0.1 0.8 2.5 3.8 5.8 7.2 Other service activities 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.1 3.0 3.6

83 Table A.7.2 Sectoral effects of implementing energy policy measures within the Revolutionary Scenario (deviation of output volumes from the Reference (Conservative) Scenario, %)

Sector/Period 2018 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 0.2 0.9 2.3 3.5 5.1 6.4 Mining of coal, lignite, and extraction of peat; mining of uranium and thorium ores -6.4 -8.8 -15.6 -22.8 -36.3 -47.4 Extraction of hydrocarbons and related services -1.1 -1.7 -3.7 -6.1 -11.3 -16.5 Extraction of mineral resources, other than fossil fuels 0.4 1.9 4.8 6.9 9.7 11.4 Manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco products -0.1 1.3 4.2 6.4 9.4 10.9 Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather, leather goods and other materials 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.7 2.1 Manufacture of products of wood, paper products, and printing 0.2 1.3 4.0 6.8 14.5 27.4 Manufacture of coke and coke products -2.4 -4.1 -9.6 -16.0 -28.7 -40.0 Manufacture of refined petroleum products -2.5 -5.4 -12.1 -18.0 -27.8 -35.1 Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products -0.6 0.5 2.3 3.6 5.6 7.7 Production of essential medicines and pharmaceuticals -0.1 0.7 2.3 3.5 4.9 5.5 Manufacture of rubber and plastics products and other non-metallic mineral products 0.2 2.6 6.3 7.9 6.7 -0.9 Manufacture of metals and fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment 1.7 6.0 14.5 20.9 29.9 35.3 Manufacture of computers, electronic and optical products 3.1 1.9 -0.8 -3.0 -6.0 -7.2 Manufacture of electrical equipment 2.5 3.1 3.9 4.4 4.7 4.8 Manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified 5.2 5.1 4.1 3.0 1.4 0.7 Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, and other vehicles 2.9 2.4 0.9 -0.4 -2.4 -3.2 Manufacture of furniture, other products, repair and installation of machinery and equipment 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.2 Generation and distribution of electricity -4.0 -0.1 7.8 13.3 20.7 25.5 Manufacture and distribution of gas -4.6 -7.4 -14.7 -21.8 -34.8 -45.9 Steam and hot water supply 0.1 2.8 8.6 13.6 21.1 22.7 Water supply; sewage, waste management -0.2 2.4 7.7 11.7 17.4 20.6 Construction 9.2 9.6 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.3 Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 0.2 1.0 2.5 3.5 4.7 5.3 Transport, warehousing, postal and courier activities 0.8 1.7 3.4 4.5 5.5 5.3 Temporary accommodation and food service activities -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.6 Publishing activities, motion picture, video and television programme production, music publishing, television programming and broadcasting activities -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -0.9 Telecommunications (electrical communication) -0.3 0.3 1.5 2.3 3.3 3.8 Computer programming and provision of other information services 0.3 -0.1 -1.1 -2.1 -3.6 -4.5 Financial and insurance activities 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 Real estate activities -0.2 1.1 3.5 5.2 7.3 8.3 Legal and accounting activities; activities of head offices; management consultancy activities; architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.6 -1.1 Scientific research and development 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.7 4.2 Advertising and market research, other professional, scientific and technical activities; veterinary activities -0.2 0.2 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.9 Administrative and support service activities 0.3 1.0 2.3 3.1 4.1 4.5 Public administration and defense; compulsory social security -0.7 1.1 4.9 7.9 12.0 14.1 Education -0.3 1.7 6.0 9.5 14.3 16.9 Human health and social work activities -0.5 1.6 5.9 9.3 14.0 16.4 Arts, sports, entertainment and recreation -0.5 0.6 2.9 4.6 6.9 8.1 Other service activities 0.0 0.6 1.8 2.6 3.6 4.2

84 Annex A.8 Impact of the implementation of energy policy measures on the sectoral labor force redistribution Table A.8.1 Impact of the implementation of energy policy measures on the sectoral labor force redistribution (deviation of the value of employed population from the Reference (Conservative) Scenario, thousand people; in 2015, the actual number of employed people)

Liberal Revolutionary Sector/Period 2015 2030 2050 2030 2050 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 2871 -6 -7 -14 -13 Mining of coal, lignite, and extraction of peat; mining of uranium and thorium ores 124 -34 -55 -57 -89 Extraction of hydrocarbons and related services 59 -12 -20 -19 -31 Extraction of mineral resources, other than fossil fuels 69 2 2 4 6 Manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco products 365 6 11 4 7 Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather, leather goods and other materials 95 -2 -3 -4 -5 Manufacture of products of wood, paper products, and printing 83 -2 -1 2 23 Manufacture of coke and coke products 25 -2 -3 -9 -15 Manufacture of refined petroleum products 23 -3 -5 -8 -12 Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products 84 0 1 -2 -2 Production of essential medicines and pharmaceuticals 17 0 0 -1 -1 Manufacture of rubber and plastics products and other non-metallic mineral products 158 0 -2 0 -11 Manufacture of metals and fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment 346 1 1 36 48 Manufacture of computers, electronic and optical products 50 -1 -2 -2 -2 Manufacture of electrical equipment 61 -1 -3 -2 -4 Manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified 182 -4 -8 -5 -10 Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, and other vehicles 151 -7 -11 -10 -15 Manufacture of furniture, other products, repair and installation of machinery and equipment 147 -2 -3 -4 -6 Generation and distribution of electricity 319 -22 -35 -10 7 Manufacture and distribution of gas 44 -11 -18 -17 -26 Steam and hot water supply 26 -2 -4 -1 -2 Water supply; sewage, waste management 144 4 6 6 8 Construction 642 -1 -7 10 1 Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 3511 -21 -34 -47 -70 Transport, warehousing, postal and courier activities 998 -40 -66 -34 -65 Temporary accommodation and food service activities 277 -4 -7 -12 -16 Publishing activities, motion picture, video and television programme production, music publishing, television programming and broadcasting activities 53 -1 -2 -3 -4 Telecommunications (electrical communication) 111 0 1 -2 -1 Computer programming and provision of other information services 110 -7 -12 -14 -19 Financial and insurance activities 244 -8 -13 -13 -19 Real estate activities 268 5 9 6 9 Legal and accounting activities; activities of head offices; management consultancy activities; architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis 218 -6 -10 -10 -15 Scientific research and development 146 0 0 1 0 Advertising and market research, other professional, scientific and technical activities; veterinary activities 59 -1 -1 -2 -3 Administrative and support service activities 299 -2 -3 -3 -5 Public administration and defense; compulsory social security 975 63 106 82 123 Education 1497 77 127 100 150 Human health and social work activities 1041 40 67 54 80 Arts, sports, entertainment and recreation 208 6 10 5 8 Other service activities 345 -2 -3 -5 -6

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Дослідження «Перехід України на відновлювану енергетику до 2050 року» виконано у 2016-2017 роках Державною установою «Інститут економіки та прогнозування Національної академії наук України» за підтримки Представництва Фонду ім. Гайнріха Бьолля в Україні у співпраці з організаціями громадянського суспільства, органами державної влади, профільними асоціаціями та незалежними експертами. В роботі представлено результати моделювання базового та альтернативних сценаріїв розвитку енергетичного сектору України до 2050 р., а також продемонстровано, яким чином може бути досягнутий перехід від викопних видів палива до відновлюваних джерел енергії, та які економічні наслідки це матиме.