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Data Storage Guidelines enviroGRIDS – FP7 European project Building Capacity for a Black Sea Catchment Observation and Assessment supporting Sustainable Development Assessment of the wind and solar energy potential, and improved policy for their promotion Title Report on impacts of water quality and quantity change on public health Creator BSREC (Lulin Radulov, Alexander Kotsev, Nikolay Iliev), ITU (Ahmet Özgür Doğru, Seval Sözen), USRIEP Creation date 26.04.2012 Date of last revision 06.05.2012 Subject Energy Societal Benefit Area Status Finalized Type Word document Description This report is elaborated as an output within the implementation of Work package 5, and particularly Task 5.4 through the creation of The Deliverable D5.6. The main objective of D5.6 is to assess the wind and solar energy potential in Bulgaria; develop forecasts of the wind and solar energy potential in the country by 2050; compare the existing methods for measurement of the solar and wind energy potentials with the opportunities offered by GEOSS. Contributor(s) Lulin Radulov, Alexander Kotsev, Nikolay Iliev, Maria Andreeva, Angel Nikolaev, Vera Genadieva, Ahmet Özgür Doğru, Senem Teksoy, Seval Sözen, USRIEP Rights PU = Public Identifier EnviroGRIDS_D5.6 Language English Relation - - 1 - enviroGRIDS – FP7 European project Building Capacity for a Black Sea Catchment Observation and Assessment supporting Sustainable Development Executive Summary The EnviroGRIDS project brings together several 21st century information technologies for better understanding of the Black Sea watershed. The Group on Global Earth Observation Systems of Systems (GEOSS) is building a data-driven view of our planet that feeds into models and scenarios to explore our past, present and future. EnviroGRIDS aims at building the capacity of scientists to assemble such a system in the Black Sea Catchment, the capacity of decision-makers to use it, and the capacity of the general public to understand the important environmental, social and economic issues at stake. EnviroGRIDS will particularly target the needs of the Black Sea Commission (BSC) and the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) in order to help bridging the gap between science and policy. One of the most important aims of the EnviroGRIDS project is to contribute Global Earth Observation Systems of Systems (GEOSS), which is being built by the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) on the basis of a 10-Year Implementation Plan running from 2005 to 2015, by providing data/information available at Black Sea Catchment. GEOSS is building a data-driven view of Earth that feeds into models and scenarios to explore past, present and future. The Fifth Work Package of the EnviroGRIDS Project mainly works on providing data/information to GEOSS system in terms of Societal Benefit Areas (SBAs) already considered by GEO. Partners contributing the Task 5.4 directly deal with Energy SBA. Task 5.4 does not only provide the results of the Renewable energy potential and forecasting in contributing countries as a report but it also contributes to GEOSS by providing maps of the result of the studies executed within this task. This report is elaborated as an output within the implementation of Work package 5, and particularly Task 5.4 through the creation of The Deliverable D5.6. The main objective of D5.6 is to assess the wind and solar energy potential in Bulgaria; develop forecasts of the wind and solar energy potential in the country by 2050; compare the existing methods for measurement of the solar and wind energy potentials with the opportunities offered by GEOSS. Three institutions, Black Sea Regional Energy Centre (BSREC), Istanbul Technical University (ITU), and Ukrainian Scientific and Research Institute of Ecological Problems (USRIEP), contributed to this Task from Bulgaria, Turkey and Ukraine respectively. This Deliverable includes one main summarizing report, which is a general overview of national studies executed within the Task 5.4 Energy, and four complementary reports covering the studies executed by each partner as annexes. The Annex I, presented in this deliverable, covers the first national report entitled as “Assessment of the Wind and Solar Energy Potential in Bulgaria and Policy Recommendations for Their Promotion” and prepared by BSREC for Bulgaria. The approach that BSREC and the project team undertake is to estimate the renewable energy potential through integration and analysis of information in the environment of a GIS. The phenomena with relation to the topic of energy potential can by doing so be estimated for a chosen level of subdivision in the country, both administrative (regions, districts and municipalities) and geographic (watersheds, etc.). Detailed information on used methods, data and the entire workflow along with analyses of the results are provided below. The analytical approach we undertake is to simultaneously assess the following conditions, which are a prerequisite for successful renewable energy projects implementation throughout the territory of Bulgaria: Physical, objectively existing environmental preconditions for the development of solar and wind projects Limitations for the actual implementation of renewable energy production, as consequence of: Land-use and land cover, not permitting the creation of renewable energy facilities; Administrative limitations for the creation of renewable energy facilities (Environmentally protected areas, territories with special regime of usage, etc.). The Annex II, presented in this deliverable, covers the first national report entitled as “Assessment of the Wind and Solar Energy Potential in Turkey and Forecasts By 2050” and prepared by ITU in collaboration with BSREC for Turkey. In this context, BSREC, as the energy specialist in energy issues, took the responsibility of assessment of the wind and solar energy potential in Turkey together with the responsibility of preparing wind and solar energy forecasts for Turkey. ITU provided the main data that used in assessment and forecasting processes. Stated data includes meteorological data recorded at 41 meteorological monitoring stations, which are distributed in the study area, for the period of 2000-2009 and available literature data already published in - 2 - enviroGRIDS – FP7 European project Building Capacity for a Black Sea Catchment Observation and Assessment supporting Sustainable Development national reports and scientific studies on energy, official statistics official statistics and data provided by companies producing energy or services in the relevant areas. ITU is also responsible for preparing the parts related with “Evaluation of Meteorological Data Used Solar and Wind Power Potential Assessment Studies in Turkey” and general overview of “Legal Framework for Wind and Solar Energy in Turkey” together determination of the mapping methodology used in mapping the results of the study for Bulgaria and Turkey. According to this task allocation, BSREC prepared a report on the assessment of the wind and solar power energy and forecasting wind and solar energy potential by the year of 2050. In this national study, the same methodology, which was also applied for assessment and forecasting wind and solar energy in Bulgaria, was mainly used. BSREC developed two main scenarios – maximum and minimum development of RES (solar and wind). The Annex III, presented in this deliverable, covers the first national report entitled as “Wind and Solar Energy Potential Assessment of Ukraine” and prepared by USRIEP for Ukraine. For this period in accordance with work plan, USRIEP team has assessed an existent wind and solar energy potential of Ukrainian part of Black Sea Catchment region. Pursuant to the objectives of Task 5.4 “Energy”, the results of wind and solar energy potential of Ukraine were analyzed and mapped in GIS environment. Based on the problem introduced by Task 5.4 “Energy”, the models suitable for wind and solar power potential assessment of Ukrainian part of Black Sea Catchment region had been selected and tested for assessing the current state of RES potential in Ukraine. Such models are based on identical and available data for all project partners. Annex III covers a detailed report of the studies executed by USRIEP for assessing the current state of wind and solar energy potential. The Annex IV, presented in this deliverable, covers the first national report entitled as “Analysing Spatial Interpolation Methods for Mapping Meteorological Data in Bulgaria and Turkey” and prepared by ITU both Bulgaria and Turkey. This report includes a case study for determining the efficiency of the spatial interpolation methods used for presenting the point source data as raster surfaces in terms of accuracy. Some of the maps produced within this Task were prepared by using spatial interpolation method determined as a result of the studies presented in this Annex. - 3 - enviroGRIDS – FP7 European project Building Capacity for a Black Sea Catchment Observation and Assessment supporting Sustainable Development Table of Contents ASSESSMENT OF THE WIND AND SOLAR ENERGY POTENTIAL, AND IMPROVED POLICY FOR THEIR PROMOTION 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................... 2 1 BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................................................. 6 2 EXISTING METHODS FOR MEASUREMENT OF SOLAR AND WIND ENERGY POTENTIALS
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