Climate Impacts on Energy Systems
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A WORLD BANK STUDY Climate Impacts on Energy Systems KEY ISSUES FOR ENERGY SECTOR ADAPTATION Jane Ebinger, Walter Vergara WORLD BANK STUDY Climate Impacts on Energy Systems Key Issues for Energy Sector Adaptation Jane Ebinger Walter Vergara Copyright © 2011 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org 1 2 3 4 14 13 12 11 World Bank and ESMAP Studies are published to communicate the results of the Bank’s work to the de- velopment community with the least possible delay. The manuscript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formally-edited texts. Some sources cited in this paper may be informal documents that are not readily available. This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank and ESMAP. 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ISBN: 978-0-8213-8697-2 eISBN: 978-0-8213-8698-9 DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8697-2 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been requested Contents Preface ....................................................................................................................................... vii Acknowledgments ....................................................................................................................ix Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... xiii Acronyms and Abbreviations .......................................................................................... xxxiii World Bank Countries and Regions .............................................................................. xxxvii 1. Overview ..................................................................................................................................1 Climate Trends and Impacts on Energy Systems ...........................................................1 Addressing Climate Vulnerability ....................................................................................3 Structure of This Report .....................................................................................................5 2. Observed and Expected Climate Change ..........................................................................7 Climatic Impacts on Energy Services ...............................................................................7 Recent Observed Climate Change ....................................................................................9 Expected Climate Change ................................................................................................ 13 Extreme Weather Events ................................................................................................... 20 Summary Tables ................................................................................................................ 21 3. Climate Impacts on Energy ................................................................................................ 26 Impacts on Resource Endowment .................................................................................. 26 Impacts on Energy Supply ............................................................................................... 30 Energy Transmission, Distribution, and Transfer ........................................................ 35 Energy Demand ................................................................................................................. 37 Impacts on Design and Operations ................................................................................ 41 Cross-sector Considerations ............................................................................................ 42 Indicators of Energy Sector Vulnerability...................................................................... 44 Summary Table ..................................................................................................................47 4. Emerging Adaptation Practices ......................................................................................... 52 Typology of Adaptation Responses ................................................................................ 52 Building Adaptive Capacity............................................................................................. 55 Delivering Adaptation Actions ........................................................................................ 58 Adaptation Agents ............................................................................................................6 9 Summary Remarks ............................................................................................................ 71 5. Weather and Climate Information .................................................................................... 73 Information Requirements for Decision Makers .......................................................... 73 Hydro-meteorological Parameters Relevant to Energy ............................................... 75 Information Limitations and Impediments ................................................................... 78 iii iv Contents Interpreting Information: Tools and Process Gaps ...................................................... 81 Capacity to Use Weather and Climate Information ..................................................... 81 6. Climate Resilience ............................................................................................................... 84 Awareness versus Knowledge ......................................................................................... 85 Decision Making under Uncertainty .............................................................................. 86 Mainstreaming Climate Risk Management into Energy Planning ............................ 93 7. Near-term Actions to Support Adaptation ...................................................................... 97 Climate Information Networks ....................................................................................... 99 Glossary ................................................................................................................................... 101 References ................................................................................................................................ 105 Appendixes .............................................................................................................................. 125 Appendix A. IPCC Emissions Scenarios and Confi dence Levels ............................. 127 Appendix B. Re-analyses and General Circulation Models ...................................... 131 Appendix C. Observed Trends in Precipitation and Sea Level Change.................. 137 Appendix D. Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes in Diff erent Regions ......................................................................................................................1 40 Appendix E. Icing and Hail ........................................................................................... 143 Appendix F. Electric Utilities Adapt Their Practices to Respond to Natural Disasters ....................................................................................................................1 44 Appendix G. Locally Tailored Adaptation Options: An Example ........................... 147 Appendix H. Adapting to Climate Change on Mexico’s Gulf Coast ....................... 154 Appendix I. Case Study: Regulation for the Aviation Industry ............................... 168 Appendix J. Access to Predictions................................................................................. 169 Appendix K. Frameworks, Methodologies