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Global Production Data & Analysis

n PRESENTER DR. RAGNAR TVETERAS | UNIVERSITY OF STAVANGER

GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR LEADERSHIP

GUANGZHOU, | DAY 1

HEALTHY FISH | HEALTHY PEOPLE | HEALTHY PLANET Dr. Ragnar Tveteras

• Professor Ragnar Tveteras is a business economist at the University of Stavanger’s Department for Industrial Economics, Risk Management and Planning in . • His research focuses primarily on aquaculture and markets. • As a writer and lecturer, he maintains relationships with authorities and private decision makers at the regional, national and international levels. • Tveteras received the 2006 Scana research prize for his many publications and ability to communicate research findings beyond a narrow academic circle. Global Fish Production Estimates & Trends

Ragnar Tveteras – University of Stavanger

Ragnar Nystoyl – Kontali

Darryl Jory – Global Aquaculture Alliance Acknowledgements

• Prices: NMFS, Norwegian Seafood Council, Kontali, Eurostat, FAO.

• Producon volumes: FAO, Kontali, and many individuals and organizaons who kindly responded to the GAA survey, sharing their me and knowledge. Scope of Analysis

• Most focus on internationally traded : • Typically imported to USA, & .

• Production forecasts for 2015 and 2016 for all chosen species: • But for some species only major producer countries/regions.

• Production forecast for 2017 for some species. Finfish Species Included in Analysis

Freshwater species: Marine species: • • Seabass & Sea Bream • • Pangasius • Olive , etc. • Atlantic • Cobia Diadromous species: • Atlantic & • Bluefin • Trout • Freshwater Species TILAPIA Global Tilapia Aquaculture Producon US import prices frozen fillet 1000 METRIC REAL PRICE (USD/ TONNES KG) 7000 8

6000 7 6 5000 5 4000 4 3000

5,977 3 5,798 5,550 5,339 5,308

2000 4,886 4,564 2 3,997 3,541 3,109

1000 2,826 2,554 1 2,265 1,992 1,795 811 811 379 398 485 548 593 704 898 897 1037 1190 1302 1417 1,587 0 0 2011 2011 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sources: FAO: 1990-2014. Miscellaneous sources: 2015-2018. NMFS: Prices US import frozen fillet. Note: Prices are annual averages, except for 2015(January-July average) Tilapia Countries producon sorted by 2015 figures 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000

China 1,709,852 1,046,667 Egypt 665,300 337,500 303,520 2018 Brazil 292,106 2017 Philippines 288,760 2016 144,688 2015 Mexico 87,143 Taiwan 70,714 Uganda 65,000 Colombia 62,800 India 62,500 58,950 Average of esmates from several sources. Tilapia producon esmates for China

1,712 2018

1,776 Average 2017 Sergio Zimmermann 1,724 Anonymous3 2016 CAPPMA Kevin Fitzsimmons 1,710 Anonymous2 2015 Anonymous1 1,665 Liu Liping 2014

1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 X 1000 MT

PANGASIUS Pangasius Producon in selected countries 3,000,000

2,500,000 110,000 105,000 454,312 100,000 100,000 2,000,000 100,000 435,666 Malaysia 383,846 422,182 403,409 640,000 Indonesia 1,500,000 447,500 462,500 475,000 430,000 Bangladesh India Metric Tonnes 1,000,000 Vietnam 1,334,680 1,169,000 1,188,680 1,251,680 500,000 1,115,200

0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

13 Sources: VASEP and miscellaneous Sources: N. Ahmed, S. Islam, P.E. Vijay Anand, Hồ văn Chiến, and several anonymous. Pangasius producon esmates for Vietnam

1,334,680

2018

1,251,680

2017

1,188,680

2016

1,115,200

2015

1,169,000

2014

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000

Average Anonymous4 Anonymous3 Hồ văn Chiến Anonymous2 Anonymous1 Prices: Norwegian Seafood Council, Eurostat and NMFS. Sources: FAO (1997-2014), Hồ văn

1000 Metric tonnes 1000 1200 1400 1600 Producon in Vietnam and US (blue) & EU ( 200 400 600 800 0 Chiến and miscellaneous sources (2015-2018).

40 60 87 100 114 prices frozen fillet (USD/kg) 135 163

255 Pangasius 376 520 850 1250 1050 1140

1151 1184

1148 red

1134 ) real import 1115 1189 1252 1335 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Real price US (blue) and EU (red) (USD/kg) Total producon of Caish species Incl. Pangasius 6,000,000 Others Brazil Egypt 5,000,000 Cambodia Myanmar tonnes 4,000,000 Uganda Bangladesh 3,000,000 Thailand Malaysia 2,000,000 Nigeria Indonesia

Producon in metric USA 1,000,000 India* China 0 Vietnam 2003 2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 2004 2008 2014 2018

Sources: FAO, Kontali and miscellaneous. Total producon of Caish species

6,000,000 Producon

5,000,000 tonnes 4,000,000

3,000,000

2,000,000 4885000 4676000 4,370,000 4,228,000 4,155,103 3,883,296 Producon in metric 3,658,713 3,154,589 1,000,000 3,056,400 2,834,305 2,676,220 2,077,969 1,578,010 1,302,521 886,900 0 1,059,902

Sources: FAO and miscellaneous. Prices: NMFS. Carps in China Producon by major species 25,000,000 Silver

20,000,000

Tonnes 15,000,000 10,000,000

5,000,000 Producon in Metric

0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sources: 2000-2014: FAO; 2013-2017: Miscellaneous Major Carp species in GAA survey

35,000,000 Philippines, Carp Brazil, Carp

30,000,000 India, Common carp 25,000,000 Bangladesh, Tonnes Egypt, Carp 20,000,000 Indonesia, Carp

15,000,000 Bangladesh, Carp China, Crucian carp 10,000,000 China, Common carp

Producon in Metric China, Bighead carp 5,000,000 China, Silver carp 0 India, Indian carps China, Grass carp 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sources: 2000-2012: FAO; 2013-2017: Miscellaneous Diadromous Species

SALMONIDS Atlanc Salmon Producon Real EU27 import price fresh whole gued and real US import price fresh fillet

Real prices EU27 Production in metric import (red) and US tonnes import (blue) in USD/kg 2500000 14

12 2000000 10

1500000 8

1000000 6 2,314,600 2,269,500 2,227,600 2,168,000 2,041,400 1,998,900 4

500000 1,633,400 1,496,000 1,474,800 1,455,200 1,398,000 1,270,900 1,250,700 1,244,637 2 1,132,994 1,080,897 1,032,712 893,704 803,837 688,176 0 646,516 0 2011 2011 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Sources: FAO, Kontali, NSC/Eurostat (prices). Note: Prices unl 2013 are annual averages. Price in 2015 is January-August average. Atlanc Salmon Producon by country 1400000

1200000

Norway 1000000 Chile Tonnes UK 800000 Canada Faroe Islands 600000 400000

Producon in Metric USA 200000 Others

0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Kontali Coho Salmon Total Producon and Real Export Price for Chilean Coho Frozen, Head off

200,000 8

Production 180300 180,000 170,900 7 Real price 162100

160,000 150,986 146800 144,200 6 138,600 138,000 135300 134100

140,000 129600 125,200 121,200 119,500 5 120,000 112,745 108,626 108,400 105,869 100,967

100,000 89,475 4 88,302 84,867 76,197 80,000 3 Production in Metric Tonnes Tonnes Production in Metric 58,700 58,360

60,000 49,154 48,513 44,385 Price in Real USD per Kilo

39,164 2 40,000 20,000 1 0 0 2011 2011 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sources: FAO , Kontali. Coho Salmon Producon by country 180000

160000 140000

Tonnes 120000 100000 80000 Chile 60000 Japan Others 40000 Producon in Metric 20000 0

Source: Kontali Large Total Marine Producon, real Chilean frozen export price (blue) and real EU fresh import price EUR/kg (red)

400,000 8

350,000 7

300,000 6

250,000 5 (USD/kg)

200,000 4 price 370000

150,000 3 Real e 332,300 324300 Metric tonnes 310,000 301900 307,100 301,300 285100 262500 256300

100,000 254,100 2 240600 240500 237,900 222,433 214,869 206,508 205,550

50,000 153,303 1 145,128 125,730 121,862 103,090 33,567 34,321 47,512 57,175 69,748 80,593 0 0

Sources: FAO, Kontali and miscellaneous, NSC. Note: Prices are annual averages except 2015 (January-August average). Large Rainbow Trout Producon by country 250000

200000 Chile Tonnes 150000 Norway Finland 100000 Faroe Island Australia

Producon in Metric 50000 Others

0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Kontali Small Rainbow Trout Global Producon and EU27 real import price frozen whole trout < 1.2 kg

700,000 5 4.5 600,000 4 500,000 3.5

3 in USD/kg 400,000

2.5 price 300,000 2 639,000 620,500 603,900 576,200 Metric tonnes 565,300

534,700 1.5 200,000 496,100 453,200 427,400 401,900 Real import 387,800

369,300 1 100,000 348,500 0.5 0 0

Sources: FAO, Kontali, NSC. Note: Prices are annual averages except 2015 (January-August average). Small Rainbow Trout Producon by Country 700000

600000

Others 500000 France

Tonnes Denmark 400000 Peru China 300000 USA 200000 Italy Turkey Producon in Metric 100000 Iran

0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources: FAO (1999-2012); Kontali and miscellaneous (2013-2016). Asian Seabass, Barramundi Barramundi Total producon by major producing countries

100,000 Australia Indonesia Thailand 90,000 80,000 Malaysia Taiwan 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 Metric Tonnes Metric Tonnes 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2011 2011 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: FAO Barramundi Producon forecasts for selected countries

40,000 Taiwan 35,000 Malaysia 30,000 Thailand Tonnes 25,000 Indonesia Australia Metric 20,000

15,000

10,000 Producon in 5,000

0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sources: FAO (2002-2012) and miscellaneous (2013-2017) Marine Species

Seabass & Sea Bream Mediterranean Producon Production in metric tonnes

350000 Sea Breams Sea Basses 300000

250000 169,900 175,500 173,300 177,400 200000 158,200 154,700 166,200 161,100 170,300 169,200 160,700

150000 141,500

100000 99265 88922 88340 79767 77003 73232 58831 160,100 151,400 50000 150,900 146,700 146,500 142,800 129,700 127,700 124,700 123,500 120,700 113,200 82706 68679 62060 61093 57811 57811 56162 0 45957

Source: Kontali Seabass & Sea Bream Mediterranean Producon & Real Italian Import Price

Production Sea Basses and Breams Real price fresh whole seabass Real price fresh Gilthead seabream Production Real Price (metric tonnes) (USD per kilo)

350,000 10 9 300,000 8 250,000 7 200,000 6 5 150,000 4 330,000 326,900 320,200 319,800 309,100 301,400 295,000 293,900 290,800 289,900 100,000 284,200 3 254,700 2

50,000 181,971 157,601 150,400

140,860 1 133,165 131,043 0 104,788 0 2011 2011 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: Kontali, NSC/Eurostat COBIA

SNAPPERFARMS Farmed Cobia Esmates for China, Taiwan, Panama and Vietnam

Metric Tonnes

60,000

50,000

40,000 Vietnam

30,000 Panama

20,000 Taiwan

10,000 China

0 2011 2011 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: Various sources Farmed Cobia Esmates for China, Taiwan, Panama and Vietnam

Metric Tonnes

45,000 40,000 China 35,000 30,000 Taiwan 25,000 20,000 Panama 15,000 10,000 Vietnam 5,000 0 2011 2011 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: Various sources Bluefin Tuna Bluefin Tuna Total Producon and US real import price fresh

Production US import price fresh 60000 35 53700 49900 50000 30 45181 43800 42563 25 40000 34500 34300 33500 31050

30700 20 30300 29700 29100 29000

30000 26500

23800 15

Metric tonnes 20000 10 Real price (USD/kg)

10000 5

0 0

Sources: Producon - Apostolos Tzoumas; import price- NMFS. Note: Prices are annual averages, except price in 2015 is January-August average. producon in countries surveyed by GAA

120000 China

Taiwan 100000 Indonesia

Tonnes 80000 Malaysia Vietnam 60000 Philippines 40000

Producon in Metric 20000

0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sources: FAO (1999-2012); miscellaneous (2013-2017). Grouper producon in countries surveyed by GAA

180000 Philippines

160000 Vietnam 140000 Malaysia Tonnes 120000 Indonesia 100000 Taiwan 80000 60000 China 40000 Producon in Metric 20000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Note: Data not available for China 2016-18. Assume producon of 100,000 MT these years. Sources: FAO (1999-2012); miscellaneous (2013-2017). Summary Finfish Aquaculture Producon of Fish Species and 10-year growth rate 1990-2014

60.0 250

Producon % growth 50.0 200 tonnes 40.0 Double in a decade 150 30.0 100 47.3 20.0 44.5 40.7 49.8618915 38.5 36.1 34.3 % ten year growth rate 31.6 29.8 28.0

26.3 50 24.2 23.5

10.0 22.2 20.8 19.9 18.5 17.9 Producon in Mill. metric 16.9 15.0 13.1 9.9 11.2 9.0 8.7 0.0 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: FAO Aquaculture Producon of Fish Species and Seafood Price Indices 1990-2013 50 160 Producon 45 150 Total price index 40 140

tonnes Aquaculture price index 35 130 30 120 25 110 20 100 (2002-2004=100)

15 90 Seafood price index 10 80

Producon in Mill. metric 5 70 0 60 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1994 1998 2004 2008

Source: FAO Diadromous Species Annual Percent Growth Rates

30.0 21 21 20.0 9 10.0 7 6 4 5 4 5 5 3 3 2 2014 0.0 0 -2 -1 2015 -6 -10.0 -6 -8 -6 -7 2016 -9 -10 2017 -20.0

-30.0 -26 Atlanc Coho salmon Large Small trout Milkfish, Barramundi salmon Rainbow trout selected countries Freshwater Species Annual Percent Growth Rates 12.0 10 10.0 9 8.0 7.4 7 7 6 6.0 5 4.6 4.5 4 4 2014 4.0 2015 2 2.0 2016 1 2017 0.0

-2.0 -1 -2 -4.0 -3 Carp, selected Tilapia Caishes, selected Pangasius, Vietnam countries countries Marine Species Annual Percent Growth Rates

60.0 50 52 37 40.0 26 22 20 20.0 10 13 11 9 7 6 8 6 8 2 5 1 2 4 4 0 0.0 2014 -5 -2 -6 -5 -20.0 -10 2015 2016 -40.0 2017 -60.0 -61 -80.0 Sea & Grouper, Bluefin tuna Cobia, Turbot, excl. Atlanc Atlanc cod bream, selected selected China halibut Medit. countries countries Producon of Surveyed Species Incl. Carp, 2003-2017

50

45 40 tonnes 35 30 25 42.3 44.3 20 38.5 38.6 40.6 35.4 31.4 32.3 15 27.4 29.0 23.1 25.5 10 19.2 20.5 21.8

Producon in Mill. metric 5 0 2003 2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 2004 2008 2014 Producon of Surveyed Species Incl. Carp, 2003-2017 50 12.0 Producon % growth 45 10.3 10.0 40 9.5 tonnes 8.8 35 8.0 8.0 7.6 30 7.2 25 6.2 5.9 6.0 6.0

20 5.0 4.7 % growth 4.2 4.0 15 3.1 10 2.0 Producon in Mill. metric 5 0 0.3 0.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Producon of Surveyed Species Excl. Carp, 2003-2017 18

16 14 tonnes 12 10 8 14.7 14.9 15.6 13.5 14.3 6 12.8 10.3 11.2 9.0 9.5 4 8.0 6.9 5.6 6.2 Producon in Mill. metric 5.1 2 0 2003 2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 2004 2008 2014 Producon of Surveyed Species Excl. Carp, 2003-2017

18.0 Producon % growth 18.0

16.0 16.4 16.0 15.0 14.0 14.0 tonnes 12.9 12.0 12.0 11.2 10.5 10.0 9.8 10.0 8.5 8.6 8.0 8.0 % growth 6.0 6.0 6.0 4.8 5.3 5.0 4.0 4.0

Producon in Mill. metric 2.0 2.4 2.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Producon of Surveyed Species By species group 2003-2017

50.0 Marine 180 Diadromous 0.6 45.0 0.6 160 Freshwater 0.6 0.5 0.6 4.5 40.0 Aquaculture price index 4.4 140 0.5 4.5 35.0 0.5 4.2 4.3 0.5 4.1 120 30.0 0.5 3.6 Tonnes 0.5 3.2 0.4 3.1 100 25.0 0.3 0.4 3.1 0.3 2.9 80 0.3 2.6 2.6 20.0 2.5 37.3 39.1 2.4 33.8 33.8 35.5 30.8 60

Mill. Metric 15.0 25.5 27.7 28.3 23.9 Aquaculture price index 10.0 20.1 22.1 40 16.5 17.8 18.9 5.0 20 0.0 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source price index: FAO, Univ. of Stavanger, Norwegian Seafood Council Producon of Surveyed Species Excl. Carp 2003-2017 18.0 Marine 180 16.0 Diadromous 0.6 160 0.6 0.6 0.6

14.0 Freshwater 0.5 140 0.5 4.5 12.0 Aquaculture price index 0.5 4.3 4.5 4.4 120 4.2

Tonnes 0.5 10.0 0.5 4.1 100 0.5 Price Index 3.6 8.0 0.4 3.2 80 0.4 3.1 0.3 3.1 6.0 0.3 0.3 2.9 60

Mill. Metric 2.6 10.5 2.6 9.4 9.6 9.9 4.0 2.5 8.2 8.7 40 Aquaculture 2.4 6.6 7.1 5.5 5.9 2.0 3.8 4.6 20 2.5 2.9 3.3 0.0 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Growth Rates by Species Groups - Incl. Carps 2004-2016 average growth rate (in parenthesis)

35.0

30.0 Freshwater (6.5%) Diadromous (4.9%) 25.0 Marine (6.7%) 20.0

15.0 % growth 10.0

5.0

0.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -5.0 Growth Rates by Species Groups - Excl. Carp (2004-2016 average growth rate in parenthesis)

35.0

30.0 Freshwater (11.4%)

25.0 Diadromous 4.9%) Marine (6.7%) 20.0

15.0 % growth 10.0

5.0

0.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -5.0 Producon of Surveyed Whitefish Species Excluding Carp (2003-2017) 14.0

12.0 tonnes 10.0

8.0

6.0 12.3 11.1 11.3 11.7 9.7 10.4 4.0 7.9 8.5 6.6 7.1 5.7 4.8 Producon in Mill. metric 4.2 2.0 3.3 3.7

0.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Producon of Surveyed Whitefish Species Excluding Carp (2003-2017)

14.0 Producon % growth 25.0

12.0 20.0 tonnes 19.1 10.0 14.9 15.6 15.0 8.0 13.6 13.9 12.7

10.9 % growth 6.0 10.0 7.5 8.0 4.0 6.7 6.6 5.4 5.0 2.0

Producon in Mill. metric 3.3 1.9 0.0 0.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Producon of Surveyed Whitefish Species and Price Index Aquaculture & Whitefish Excluding Carp, 2003-2017

14 Producon 180 Aquaculture price index 160 12 Whitefish price index

tonnes 140 10 120 8 100

6 80 60 4 40 Whitefish price index 2 20 Producon in Mill. metric 0 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source prices: FAO, Norwegian Seafood Council Did they double in a decade? Percentage growth, 2006-2016

Catfishes* 201.5 Barramundi* 170.6 Grouper* 165.8 Tilapia 145.0 Pangasius, Vietnam 128.6 Milkfish* 91.9 Cobia* 90.2 Atlantic salmon 70.6 Carp* 69.0 Small trout 68.0 Turbot, excl. China 50.1 Coho salmon 22.8 Sea bass & bream, Medit. 18.3 Bluefin tuna 13.9 Atlantic halibut 2.0 Large Rainbow trout-5.3 -100 0 100 Percent 200 60 300 *Selected countries Did they double in a decade? Percentage growth 2006-2016

Marine 40.6

Diadromous 66.7

Freshwater ex. Carp 158.4

Freshwater 86.1

TOTAL EX. CARP 116.4

TOTAL 83.1

0 100 200 Percent 61 Thank You!