Global Fish Production Data & Analysis n PRESENTER DR. RAGNAR TVETERAS | UNIVERSITY OF STAVANGER GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR AQUACULTURE LEADERSHIP GUANGZHOU, CHINA | DAY 1 HEALTHY FISH | HEALTHY PEOPLE | HEALTHY PLANET Dr. Ragnar Tveteras • Professor Ragnar Tveteras is a business economist at the University of Stavanger’s Department for Industrial Economics, Risk Management and Planning in Norway. • His research focuses primarily on aquaculture and seafood markets. • As a writer and lecturer, he maintains relationships with authorities and private decision makers at the regional, national and international levels. • Tveteras received the 2006 Scana research prize for his many publications and ability to communicate research findings beyond a narrow academic circle. Global Fish Production Estimates & Trends Ragnar Tveteras – University of Stavanger Ragnar Nystoyl – Kontali Darryl Jory – Global Aquaculture Alliance Acknowledgements • Prices: NMFS, Norwegian Seafood Council, Kontali, Eurostat, FAO. • Producon volumes: FAO, Kontali, and many individuals and organizaons who kindly responded to the GAA survey, sharing their me and knowledge. Scope of Analysis • Most focus on internationally traded species: • Typically imported to USA, Europe & Japan. • Production forecasts for 2015 and 2016 for all chosen species: • But for some species only major producer countries/regions. • Production forecast for 2017 for some species. Finfish Species Included in Analysis Freshwater species: Marine species: • Tilapia • Seabass & Sea Bream • Catfish • Flatfishes • Pangasius • Olive Flounder • Channel catfish, etc. • Atlantic Halibut • Carps • Turbot • Cobia Diadromous species: • Atlantic cod • Salmon & Trout • Bluefin tuna • Atlantic salmon • Groupers • Coho salmon • Trout • Barramundi • Milkfish Freshwater Species TILAPIA Note: Prices are annual averages, except for 2015(January-July average) Sources: FAO: 1990-2014. Miscellaneous sources: 2015-2018. NMFS: Prices US import frozen fillet. 1000 METRIC 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 TONNES TONNES 0 1990 379 1991 398 1992 485 Global Tilapia Aquaculture Producon 1993 548 1994 593 1995 704 1996 811 US import prices frozen fillet 1997 898 1998 897 1999 1037 2000 1190 2001 1302 2002 1417 2003 1,587 2004 1,795 2005 1,992 2006 2,265 2007 2,554 2008 2,826 2009 3,109 2010 3,541 2011 3,997 2012 4,564 2013 4,886 REAL PRICE(USD/ REAL 2014 5,308 2015 5,339 2016 5,550 KG) 2017 5,798 2018 5,977 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Tilapia Countries producon sorted by 2015 figures 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 China 1,709,852 Indonesia 1,046,667 Egypt 665,300 Thailand 337,500 Bangladesh 303,520 2018 Brazil 292,106 2017 Philippines 288,760 2016 Vietnam 144,688 2015 Mexico 87,143 Taiwan 70,714 Uganda 65,000 Colombia 62,800 India 62,500 Malaysia 58,950 Average of esmates from several sources. Tilapia produc4on esmates for China 1,712 2018 1,776 Average 2017 Sergio Zimmermann 1,724 Anonymous3 2016 CAPPMA Kevin Fitzsimmons 1,710 Anonymous2 2015 Anonymous1 1,665 Liu Liping 2014 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 X 1000 MT CATFISHES PANGASIUS Pangasius Producon in selected countries 3,000,000 2,500,000 110,000 105,000 454,312 100,000 100,000 2,000,000 100,000 435,666 Malaysia 383,846 422,182 403,409 640,000 Indonesia 1,500,000 447,500 462,500 475,000 430,000 Bangladesh India Metric Tonnes 1,000,000 Vietnam 1,334,680 1,169,000 1,188,680 1,251,680 500,000 1,115,200 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 13 Sources: VASEP and miscellaneous Sources: N. Ahmed, S. Islam, P.E. Vijay Anand, Hồ văn Chiến, and several anonymous. Pangasius produc4on esmates for Vietnam 1,334,680 2018 1,251,680 2017 1,188,680 2016 1,115,200 2015 1,169,000 2014 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 Average Anonymous4 Anonymous3 Hồ văn Chiến Anonymous2 Anonymous1 Pangasius Producon in Vietnam and US (blue) & EU (red) real import prices frozen fillet (USD/kg) 1600 6 1400 5 1200 4 1000 800 3 600 1335 1252 1250 1189 1184 1151 1148 2 1140 1134 1000 Metric tonnes 1115 1050 400 850 1 200 520 376 255 40 60 87 100 114 135 163 0 0 Real price US (blue) and EU (red) (USD/kg) Sources: FAO (1997-2014), Hồ văn Chiến and miscellaneous sources (2015-2018). Prices: Norwegian Seafood Council, Eurostat and NMFS. Total producon of Caish species Incl. Pangasius 6,000,000 Others Brazil Egypt 5,000,000 Cambodia Myanmar tonnes 4,000,000 Uganda Bangladesh 3,000,000 Thailand Malaysia 2,000,000 Nigeria Indonesia Producon in metric USA 1,000,000 India* China 0 Vietnam 2003 2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 2004 2008 2014 2018 Sources: FAO, Kontali and miscellaneous. Sources: FAO and miscellaneous. Prices: NMFS. Producon in metric tonnes 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 Total producon of Caish species 0 886,900 1,059,902 1,302,521 1,578,010 2,077,969 2,676,220 Producon 2,834,305 3,056,400 3,154,589 3,658,713 3,883,296 4,155,103 4,228,000 4,370,000 4676000 4885000 Sources: 2000-2014: FAO; 2013-2017: Miscellaneous Producon in Metric Tonnes 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 5,000,000 0 1991 Producon by major species 1992 Bighead carp Grass carp 1993 Common carp Crucian carp Silver carp 1994 1995 Carps in China 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Major Carp species in GAA survey 35,000,000 Philippines, Carp Brazil, Carp 30,000,000 India, Common carp 25,000,000 Bangladesh, Silver carp Tonnes Egypt, Carp 20,000,000 Indonesia, Carp 15,000,000 Bangladesh, Carp China, Crucian carp 10,000,000 China, Common carp Producon in Metric China, Bighead carp 5,000,000 China, Silver carp 0 India, Indian carps China, Grass carp 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Sources: 2000-2012: FAO; 2013-2017: Miscellaneous Diadromous Species SALMONIDS Sources: FAO, Kontali Real EU27 import price fresh whole gued and real US import price fresh fillet , NSC/Eurostat (prices). Note: Prices unl 2013 are annual averages. Price in 2015 is January-August average. 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 500000 Production inmetric 0 tonnes 1990 1991 Atlanc Salmon Producon 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 646,516 1998 688,176 1999 803,837 2000 893,704 2001 1,032,712 2002 1,080,897 2003 1,132,994 2004 1,244,637 2005 1,250,700 2006 1,270,900 2007 1,398,000 2008 1,496,000 2009 1,474,800 2010 1,455,200 2011 1,633,400 2012 1,998,900 2013 2,041,400 import ( 2014 2,227,600 Real pricesEU27 import 2015 2,314,600 USD/kg 2016 2,168,000 red ( blue 2017 2,269,500 ) and 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 ) in US Atlanc Salmon Producon by country 1400000 1200000 Norway 1000000 Chile Tonnes UK 800000 Canada Faroe Islands 600000 Australia 400000 Ireland Producon in Metric USA 200000 Others 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Kontali Sources: FAO , Production in Metric Tonnes Kontali 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 . 0 Total Producon and Real Export Price for Chilean Coho Frozen, Head off 1990 39,164 1991 44,385 1992 48,513 1993 49,154 Real price Production 1994 58,700 1995 58,360 1996 76,197 1997 84,867 1998 88,302 1999 89,475 Coho Salmon 2000 108,626 2001 150,986 2002 112,745 2003 105,869 2004 100,967 2005 121,200 2006 119,500 2007 138,600 2008 138,000 2009 108,400 2010 125,200 2011 144,200 2012 170,900 2013 180300 2014 134100 2015 162100 2016 146800 2017 135300 2018 129600 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Price in Real USD per Kilo Coho Salmon Producon by country 180000 160000 140000 Tonnes 120000 100000 80000 Chile 60000 Japan Others 40000 Producon in Metric 20000 0 Source: Kontali Sources: FAO, Kontali and miscellaneous, NSC. Note: Prices are annual averages except 2015 (January-August average). Metric tonnes 350,000 400,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 50,000 0 Total Marine Producon, real Chilean frozen export price (blue) and 33,567 34,321 47,512 57,175 69,748 real EU fresh import price EUR/kg ( 80,593 Large Rainbow Trout 103,090 125,730 145,128 121,862 153,303 206,508 222,433 205,550 214,869 237,900 254,100 307,100 332,300 301,300 red 310,000 ) 324300 370000 301900 285100 256300 240600 240500 262500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Real e price (USD/kg) Large Rainbow Trout Producon by country 250000 200000 Chile Tonnes 150000 Norway Finland Russia 100000 Faroe Island Australia Producon in Metric 50000 Others 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Kontali Small Rainbow Trout Global Producon and EU27 real import price frozen whole trout < 1.2 kg 700,000 5 4.5 600,000 4 500,000 3.5 3 in USD/kg 400,000 2.5 price 300,000 2 639,000 620,500 603,900 576,200 Metric tonnes 565,300 534,700 1.5 200,000 496,100 453,200 427,400 401,900 Real import 387,800 369,300 1 100,000 348,500 0.5 0 0 Sources: FAO, Kontali, NSC.