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Uganda Rwanda Burundi COUNTRY REPORT Uganda Rwanda Burundi 3rd quarter 1997 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent Street, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The EIU delivers its information in four ways: through subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through specific research reports, whether for general release or for particular clients; through electronic publishing; and by organising conferences and roundtables. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent Street The Economist Building 25/F, Dah Sing Financial Centre London 111 West 57th Street 108 Gloucester Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, USA Hong Kong Tel: (44.171) 830 1000 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2802 7288 Fax: (44.171) 499 9767 Fax: (1.212) 586 1181/2 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 e-mail: [email protected] e-mail: [email protected] e-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.eiu.com Electronic delivery EIU Electronic Publishing New York: Lou Celi or Lisa Hennessey Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Fax: (1.212) 586 0248 London: Moya Veitch Tel: (44.171) 830 1007 Fax: (44.171) 830 1023 This publication is available on the following electronic and other media: Online databases CD-ROM Microfilm FT Profile (UK) Knight-Ridder Information World Microfilms Publications (UK) Tel: (44.171) 825 8000 Inc (USA) Tel: (44.171) 266 2202 DIALOG (USA) SilverPlatter (USA) Tel: (1.415) 254 7000 LEXIS-NEXIS (USA) Tel: (1.800) 227 4908 M.A.I.D/Profound (UK) Tel: (44.171) 930 6900 Copyright © 1997 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author’s and the publisher’s ability. However, the EIU does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 0969-8817 Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Redhouse Press Ltd, Unit 151, Dartford Trade Park, Dartford, Kent DA1 1QB, UK 1 Contents 3 Summary Uganda 5 Political structure 6 Economic structure 7 Outlook for 1997-98 8 Review 8 The political scene 11 The economy 15 Agriculture 16 Manufacturing 17 Mining 17 Foreign trade and payments 18 Debt Rwanda 19 Political structure 20 Economic structure 21 Outlook for 1997-98 22 Review 22 The political scene 26 The economy 27 Agriculture 28 Foreign trade and payments 28 Aid and trade Burundi 29 Political structure 30 Economic structure 31 Outlook for 1997-98 32 Review 32 The political scene 37 The economy 39 Quarterly indicators and trade data EIU Country Report 3rd quarter 1997 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1997 2 List of tables 8 Uganda: forecast summary 38 Burundi: total humanitarian assistance for the great lakes emergency 39 Uganda: quarterly indicators of economic activity 39 Rwanda: quarterly indicators of economic activity 40 Burundi: quarterly indicators of economic activity 40 Uganda: foreign trade 41 Rwanda: foreign trade 42 Burundi: foreign trade List of figures 8 Uganda: gross domestic product 8 Uganda: new Ugandan shilling real exchange rate 12 Uganda: monthly inflation, 1997 31 Burundi: gross domestic product EIU Country Report 3rd quarter 1997 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1997 3 August 21, 1997 Summary 3rd quarter 1997 Uganda Outlook for 1997-98: Rebel activities will continue to dominate the scene. The situation in the north should improve, but any improvement of relations with Sudan looks unlikely. The economy will resume a stronger growth trend. Stability will be maintained, but budget cuts will cause discontent. Review: Rebel attacks caused further disruption in the south-west. The LRA was said to be regrouping in southern Sudan. Amnesty International criticised both the army and the rebels in northern Uganda. Contact has been main- tained with Sudan but no diplomatic progress has been made. Relations with Kenya seem to be cooling again. The USA has displayed an ambivalent attitude towards Uganda. Poor harvests have put a brake on economic growth. The money supply and domestic credit remain under control. The underlying infla- tion situation is still good. The use of Uganda’s currency in eastern Congo has posed a threat to liquidity in Uganda. Tax collection failures have caused a revenue shortfall. The budget promised a very tight year for government spending. Tax holidays on inward investment have been abolished. VAT con- trols have been tightened. The stock exchange opening looks likely to be delayed again. There has been parliamentary opposition to some privatis- ations. Poor harvests have brought widespread famine. A new grading method for coffee could cause problems. Manufacturing performance was good overall but patchy in places. Foreign-exchange flows boosted the balance-of-payments surplus. Non-coffee exports compensated for coffee revenue, mainly because of buoyant gold exports. Transit charges have been introduced to prevent smug- gling. The foreign debt has been moving towards a sustainable level. Rwanda Outlook for 1997-98: Mr Kabila will have to get used to the Rwandan pres- ence in Congo. The international inquiry will start soon. The low-intensity civil war will remain concentrated in the west. The International Tribunal in Arusha will ask for more funds to speed up trials. Agricultural production will improve next year. Review: Mr Kagame has claimed that Rwandan forces led the AFDL in order to destroy refugee camps and militia, that the USA backed him and that Mr Kabila was “installed” as head of the AFDL. Rwanda’s new status in central Africa has been augmented while Mr Kagame has tried to pre-empt damaging conclusions from the eastern Congo massacre inquiry. Over 200,000 refugees are unac- counted for. The new central African alliance has enemies including embold- ened militias in western Rwanda. Rwandan trials have angered human rights organisations and genocide survivors. Kenyan police have arrested key geno- cide suspects and transferred them to the International Tribunal, heralding improvements in Rwandan-Kenyan relations. The UN rates Rwanda as the world’s second least-developed country. The impeshi harvest has improved, but not enough to feed Rwanda’s swollen population. Food security varies according to region. Coffee production has risen slightly. EIU Country Report 3rd quarter 1997 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1997 4 Burundi Outlook for 1997-98: Mediators will be looking for a ceasefire if the Arusha talks get started, but absences and bad blood will cause difficulties for Mr Nyerere. If Mr Buyoya ends the massacre trials, he will need the loyalty of the armed forces. Most regrouped people will remain so for months. Bilateral donors are not yet ready to resume funding. Review: Inclusive talks to resolve the Burundi crisis have been postponed indefinitely because of government fears of a Tutsi backlash. Uprona is split down the middle and Frodebu is deeply divided. Fighting has intensified be- tween the factions, suggesting regroupment is losing its military impact. Pres- sure to disband the regroupment camps in building up, but to no avail. Burundi’s relations with Tanzania have deteriorated further. Coup plotter trials have been postponed while genocide trials move ahead. Fuel and export sanc- tions are being maintained but no longer make much difference for fuel im- ports or coffee exports. The 1997 second harvest is better than last year’s but there are chronic food shortages in the camps. Editor: James Walker All queries: Tel: (44.171) 830 1007 Fax: (44.171) 830 1023 EIU Country Report 3rd quarter 1997 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1997 Uganda 5 Uganda Political structure Official name Republic of Uganda Form of state Unitary republic Legal system Based on English common law and the 1995 constitution National legislature Parliament of Uganda; 276 members, 214 elected by universal suffrage, with the remainder selected by electoral colleges. All serve five years National elections May 1996 (presidential); June 1996 (legislative); next elections due by 2001 (presidential and legislative) Head of state President, Yoweri Museveni; last presidential election was May 1996 National government The president and his appointed cabinet; last reshuffle July 1996 Main political parties The National Resistance Movement (NRM) is the ruling authority; the Democratic Party (DP), the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC), the Uganda Patriotic Movement (UPM) and the Conservative Party (CP) are all registered political parties but election candidates stand as independents President & commander in chief Yoweri Museveni Vice-president & minister of agriculture, animal industry & fisheries Specioza Kazibwe Prime minister Kintu Musoke First deputy prime minister & minister of foreign affairs Eriya Kategaya Second deputy prime minister & minister of tourism & the environment Moses Ali Third deputy prime minister & minister
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