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Uganda Rwanda Burundi COUNTRY REPORT Uganda Rwanda Burundi 3rd quarter 1996 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent Street, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 40 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The EIU delivers its information in four ways: through subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through specific research reports, whether for general release or for particular clients; through electronic publishing; and by organising conferences and roundtables. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent Street The Economist Building 25/F, Dah Sing Financial Centre London 111 West 57th Street 108 Gloucester Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, USA Hong Kong Tel: (44.171) 830 1000 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2802 7288 Fax: (44.171) 499 9767 Fax: (1.212) 586 1181/2 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 Electronic delivery EIU Electronic Publishing New York: Lou Celi or Lisa Hennessey Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Fax: (1.212) 586 0248 London: Moya Veitch Tel: (44.171) 830 1007 Fax: (44.171) 830 1023 This publication is available on the following electronic and other media: Online databases CD-ROM Microfilm FT Profile (UK) Knight-Ridder Information World Microfilms Publications (UK) Tel: (44.171) 825 8000 Inc (USA) Tel: (44.171) 266 2202 DIALOG (USA) SilverPlatter (USA) Tel: (1.415) 254 7000 LEXIS-NEXIS (USA) Tel: (1.800) 227 4908 M.A.I.D/Profound (UK) Tel: (44.171) 930 6900 Copyright © 1996 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author’s and the publisher’s ability. However, the EIU does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 0969-8817 Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Redhouse Press Ltd, Unit 151, Dartford Trade Park, Dartford, Kent DA1 1QB, UK 1 Summary Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi 3rd quarter 1996 August 20, 1996 Uganda Political and economic structures pages 3-4 Outlook: The new government will be expected to deliver on its election promises and address the security situation in the north. The opposition will be sidelined, as it lost parliamentary representation. Real GDP growth will remain strong, but is forecast to slow to 6% in both fiscal 1996/97 and 1997/98. Exports will suffer from the collapse in coffee prices, while imports will be fuelled by growing domestic demand. But transfers will fund much of import growth, although the current-account deficit is expected to widen over the next two years. pages 5-6 Review: Uganda has elected its new parliament, but the election has margi- nalised the opposition. Cecilia Ogwal has support from the grassroots, but not from all the UPC party hierarchy, which may need to redefine its stance. The new cabinet is controversially large and most of the old team have been re- tained. Yoweri Museveni has called for the elimination of poverty and pledged to rid the country of corruption in high places. Security in the north has deteriorated as rebel activities have increased. Mr Museveni has put Salim Saleh in overall charge in the north. The budget has backed up Mr Museveni’s cam- paign promises, building on a year of sound economic achievement. Defence, roads and primary education have been given priority, and industrial bottle- necks in land and power supply are to be addressed. VAT has been introduced at 17%. There have been no changes in income tax, while import-tax exemp- tions have been narrowed. Inflation has been slightly above target. Cash crops have raised farm output, but the prospects for coffee exports remain gloomy. Manufacturing output has continued to recover well. Oil and services have pushed up imports, but a surge in transfers has helped to keep the payments balance in the black. pages 7-19 Rwanda Political and economic structures pages 20-21 Outlook: The security hazard presented by the inflow of Burundian refugees will be a strong incentive for the government not to break the regional sanctions imposed on Burundi. If the killings by the RPA continue, the inter- national community is likely to block the flow of aid money. Coffee prod- uction will be slow to recover. pages 22-23 Review: Rwanda has joined the regional initiative on Burundi and imposed sanctions. Evidence suggests that the Rwandan army cooperated with Burundian counterparts to force 15,000 Rwandan refugees to return home. Militias have intensified their attacks, and the RPA has responded with reprisal killings. Genocide legislation has been agreed, paving the way for trials. Kenya has closed the Rwandan embassy in Nairobi, while relations with Zaire have reached a new low. Donors have pledged $627m. Real GDP growth of 25% has EIU Country Report 3rd quarter 1996 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1996 2 been registered in 1995. Coffee projections for 1996/97 have been revised downwards, but food production is expected to rise markedly. pages 23-30 Burundi Political and economic structures pages 31-32 Outlook: Economic sanctions imposed on the new regime by the OAU will bite, regardless of whether they have the support of the UN. Getting the war- ring parties to negotiate will be difficult, and the fighting is likely to intensify. The government will be running out of money shortly. pages 33-34 Review: Major Pierre Buyoya has seized power in a coup which was strongly condemned by the international community. The OAU has imposed tight economic sanctions, which have wrung some concessions from the new re- gime. The UN has released the findings of its inquiry into the event surround- ing the 1993 coup, but has been hesitant to support sanctions. A new government has been appointed, without Frodebu representation. The army and the militias have intensified their fighting and more massacres have oc- curred. Militias have attacked key economic installations and targeted the coffee industry. pages 35-41 Statistical appendices pages 42-46 Editors: Kristina Quattek; Gregory Kronsten All queries: Tel: (44.171) 830 1007 Fax: (44.171) 830 1023 EIU Country Report 3rd quarter 1996 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1996 Uganda 3 Political structure: Uganda Official name: Republic of Uganda Form of state: unitary republic Legal system: based on English common law and the 1995 constitution National legislature: parliament of Uganda; 276 members, 214 elected by universal suffrage, with the remainder selected by electoral colleges. All serve five years Last election: May 1996 (presidential); June 1996 (legislative) Next elections: 2001 (presidential and legislative) Head of state: president, Yoweri Museveni, confirmed as head of state in the presidential election of May 1996 National government: the president and his appointed cabinet; last reshuffle July 1996 Main political parties: the National Resistance Movement (NRM) is the ruling authority; the Democratic Party (DP), the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC), the Uganda Patriotic Movement (UPM) and the Conservative Party (CP) are all registered political parties but election candidates stand as independents President & commander in chief Yoweri Museveni Vice-president & minister of agriculture, animal industry & fisheries Specioza Kazibwe Prime minister Kintu Musoke First deputy prime minister & minister of foreign affairs Eriya Kategaya Second deputy prime minister & minister of tourism & the environment Moses Ali Third deputy prime minister & minister of labour & social services Paul Etiang Key ministers education & sports Amanya Mushega finance Jehoash Mayanja-Nkangi gender & community development Janet Mukwaya health Crispus Kiyonga information Ruhakana Rugunda internal affairs Tom Butime justice & attorney-general Bart Katureebe lands & urban development Francis Ayume local government Jabeli Bidandi Ssali natural resources Gerald Ssendaula planning & economic development Richard Kaijuka public service Apollo Nsibambi trade & industry Henry Kajura works, transport & communications John Nasasira without portfolio Kirunda Kivejinja Governor of the Bank of Uganda Charles Nyonyintoho Kikonyogo EIU Country Report 3rd quarter 1996 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1996 4 Uganda Economic structure: Uganda Latest available figures Economic indicators 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 GDP at factor costa NUSh bn 2,588 3,626 4,036 4,828 5,521 Real GDP growtha % 3.1 8.4 5.3 10.6 8.5 Consumer price inflation % 27.7 54.5 5.1 10.0 6.6 Populationb m 16.7 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.3 Exports foba $ m 172.1 169.3 253.9 577.3 555.3c Imports cifa $ m 450.6 622.4 671.9 1,085.5 1,179.8c Current accounta $ m –131.6 –141.7 –66.9 –164.3 –114.0c Reserves excl gold $ m 58.9 94.4 146.4 321.2 458.9 Total external debt $ m 2,857 3,023 3,131 3,473 n/a External debt-service ratio % 75.5 59.6 68.4 44.0 n/a Coffee exports ’000 tons 125 119 114 194 169 Manufacturing output index 1987=100 178.2 191.2 215.6 260.3 330.7 Exchange
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