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Uganda Rwanda Burundi COUNTRY REPORT Uganda Rwanda Burundi 4th quarter 1996 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent Street, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 40 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The EIU delivers its information in four ways: through subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through specific research reports, whether for general release or for particular clients; through electronic publishing; and by organising conferences and roundtables. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent Street The Economist Building 25/F, Dah Sing Financial Centre London 111 West 57th Street 108 Gloucester Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, USA Hong Kong Tel: (44.171) 830 1000 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2802 7288 Fax: (44.171) 499 9767 Fax: (1.212) 586 1181/2 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 Electronic delivery EIU Electronic New York: Lou Celi or Lisa Hennessey Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Fax: (1.212) 586 0248 London: Moya Veitch Tel: (44.171) 830 1007 Fax: (44.171) 830 1023 This publication is available on the following electronic and other media: Online databases CD-ROM Microfilm FT Profile (UK) Knight-Ridder Information World Microfilms Publications (UK) Tel: (44.171) 825 8000 Inc (USA) Tel: (44.171) 266 2202 DIALOG (USA) SilverPlatter (USA) Tel: (1.415) 254 7000 LEXIS-NEXIS (USA) Tel: (1.800) 227 4908 M.A.I.D/Profound (UK) Tel: (44.171) 930 6900 Copyright © 1996 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author’s and the publisher’s ability. However, the EIU does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 0969-8817 Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Redhouse Press Ltd, Unit 151, Dartford Trade Park, Dartford, Kent DA1 1QB, UK 1 Contents 3 Summary Uganda 4 Political structure 5 Economic structure 6 Outlook for 1997-98 7 Review 7 The political scene 13 The economy 15 Agriculture 17 Energy and construction 18 East African Cooperation 18 Foreign trade and payments Rwanda 20 Political structure 21 Economic structure 22 Outlook for 1997-98 24 Review 24 The political scene 29 The economy Burundi 31 Political structure 32 Economic structure 33 Outlook for 1997-98 34 Review 34 The political scene 38 The economy 40 Quarterly indicators and trade data List of tables 7 Uganda: forecast summary 19 Uganda: debt, aid and budget spending 40 Uganda: quarterly indicators of economic activity 40 Rwanda: quarterly indicators of economic activity 41 Burundi: quarterly indicators of economic activity 41 Uganda: foreign trade 42 Rwanda: foreign trade 43 Burundi: foreign trade EIU Country Report 4th quarter 1996 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1996 2 List of figures 7 Uganda: gross domestic product 7 Uganda: new Ugandan shilling real exchange rate 13 Uganda: consumer prices 16 Uganda: ICO coffee prices 33 Burundi: gross domestic product EIU Country Report 4th quarter 1996 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1996 3 November 14, 1996 Summary 4th quarter 1996 Uganda Outlook for 1997-98: The northern problem will concentrate government efforts and resources. Economic activity looks set for further growth, despite fore- cast price falls for coffee. Donor money is expected to continue flowing, funding rising imports. Uganda may benefit from an international debt relief effort. Review: Iran has brokered a rapprochement with Sudan, but this is unlikely to lead to a lasting peace. The northern rebels have caused chaos and embarrassed the government forces. The conflagration in Zaire has serious implications for Uganda. Profligate ministerial spending has been bad public relations for the government. Welfare indicators have shown up urban-rural contrasts. Inflation has crept up, but only in food crop prices. Traders have gone on strike in protest against the effects of VAT on business, but the government has stood its ground. The Uganda Grain Millers Corporation has prepared for flotation on the new stock exchange. Coffee production has reached record levels, but revenue has fallen. There is a serious power deficit, and the electricity board has expressed its intention to raise charges for exports to Kenya. East African Cooperation momentum has gathered pace. Rwanda Outlook for 1997-98: An international intervention force may have to enter into combat. With Hutu militias dispersed, the Rwandan government will be less worried about larger-scale incursions. Rwanda genocide trials are likely to start soon. New tax rules will increase evasion. Review: The RPA has supported Zairean militias in their fight against the Zairean army and Hutu forces. Zaire has alleged aggression by its neighbours. South Africa has warmed to the RPF. Domestic and international genocide trials have been postponed again. More Rwandan exiles in Kenya have been assassinated. Good rains have benefited farmers. Kigali retailers have gone on strike over tax changes. Burundi Outlook for 1997-98: Mr Buyoya will be buying time, waiting for develop- ments in Zaire to unfold. As he is unlikely to negotiate with the Hutu militias, regional sanctions will be upheld and the civil war will drag on, without a winner emerging. Mr Nyangoma’s faction will strengthen its hold on Frodebu. Government activity is likely to shrink to a minimum. Review: The crisis in Zaire has drawn international attention away from Burundi, although regional neighbours have kept up their efforts at bringing about negotiations. Frodebu has split into two factions. The war has continued unabated, but thousands of Burundian refugees have returned from Zaire. Sanctions have lost their bite, although government cuts and redundancies have been made. Tea and coffee has been smuggled out. Electricity cuts have remained a problem. Editors: Kristina Quattek; Gregory Kronsten All queries: Tel: (44.171) 830 1007 Fax: (44.171) 830 1023 EIU Country Report 4th quarter 1996 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1996 4 Uganda Uganda Political structure Official name Republic of Uganda Form of state Unitary republic Legal system Based on English common law and the 1995 constitution National legislature Parliament of Uganda; 276 members, 214 elected by universal suffrage, with the remainder selected by electoral colleges. All serve five years National elections May 1996 (presidential); June 1996 (legislative); next elections due by 2001 (presidential and legislative) Head of state President, Yoweri Museveni, confirmed as head of state in the presidential election of May 1996 National government The president and his appointed cabinet; last reshuffle July 1996 Main political parties The National Resistance Movement (NRM) is the ruling authority; the Democratic Party (DP), the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC), the Uganda Patriotic Movement (UPM) and the Conservative Party (CP) are all registered political parties but election candidates stand as independents President & commander in chief Yoweri Museveni Vice-president & minister of agriculture, animal industry & fisheries Specioza Kazibwe Prime minister Kintu Musoke First deputy prime minister & minister of foreign affairs Eriya Kategaya Second deputy prime minister & minister of tourism & the environment Moses Ali Third deputy prime minister & minister of labour & social services Paul Etiang Key ministers Education & sports Amanya Mushega Finance Jehoash Mayanja-Nkangi Gender & community development Janet Mukwaya Health Crispus Kiyonga Information Ruhakana Rugunda Internal affairs Tom Butime Justice & attorney-general Bart Katureebe Lands & urban development Francis Ayume Local government Jabeli Bidandi Ssali Natural resources Gerald Ssendaula Planning & economic development Richard Kaijuka Public service Apollo Nsibambi Trade & industry Henry Kajura Works, transport & communications John Nasasira Without portfolio Kirunda Kivejinja Central bank governor Charles Nyonyintoho Kikonyogo EIU Country Report 4th quarter 1996 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1996 Uganda 5 Economic structure Latest available figures Economic indicators 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 GDP at factor costa NUSh bn 2,588 3,626 4,036 4,828 5,521 Real GDP growtha % 3.1 8.4 5.3 10.6 8.5 Consumer price inflation % 27.7 54.5 5.1 10.0 6.6 Populationb m 16.7 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.3 Exports foba $ m 172.1 169.3 253.9 577.3 555.3c Imports cifa $ m 450.6 622.4 671.9 1,085.5 1,179.8c Current accounta $ m –131.6 –141.7 –66.9 –164.3 –114.0c Reserves excl gold $ m 58.9 94.4 146.4 321.2 458.9 Total external debt $ m 2,857 3,023 3,131 3,473 n/a External debt-service ratio % 75.5 59.6 68.4 44.0 n/a Coffee exports ’000 tons 125 119 114 194 169 Manufacturing output index 1987=100 178.2 191.2 215.6 260.3 330.7 Exchange rate (av) NUSh:$ 734.0 1,133.8 1,195.0 979.4 968.9 November 8, 1996 NUSh1,087.0:$1 Origins of gross domestic product 1995a
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