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Populism and Leader Polarization in Venezuela, Ecuador, and Turkey

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Populism and Leader Polarization in Venezuela, Ecuador, and Turkey Florida International University FIU Digital Commons FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations University Graduate School 3-6-2019 Populism and Leader Polarization in Venezuela, Ecuador, and Turkey Orcun Selcuk Florida International University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd Part of the Comparative Politics Commons Recommended Citation Selcuk, Orcun, "Populism and Leader Polarization in Venezuela, Ecuador, and Turkey" (2019). FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 4061. https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/4061 This work is brought to you for free and open access by the University Graduate School at FIU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of FIU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY Miami, Florida POPULISM AND LEADER POLARIZATION IN VENEZUELA, ECUADOR, AND TURKEY A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in POLITICAL SCIENCE by Orçun Selçuk 2019 To: Dean John Stack Steven J. Green School of International and Public Affairs This dissertation, written by Orçun Selçuk, and entitled Populism and Leader Polarization in Venezuela, Ecuador, and Turkey, having been approved in respect to style and intellectual content, is referred to you for judgment. We have read this dissertation and recommend that it be approved. _________________________________ Tatiana Kostadinova _________________________________ Barry Levitt _________________________________ Qing Lai _________________________________ Eduardo Gamarra, Major Professor Date of Defense: March 6, 2019 The dissertation of Orçun Selçuk is approved. _________________________________ Dean John F. Stack, Jr. Steven J. Green School of International and Public Affairs _________________________________ Andrés G. Gil Vice President for Research and Economic Development and Dean of the University Graduate School Florida International University, 2019 ii © Copyright 2019 by Orçun Selçuk All rights reserved. iii DEDICATION To my family and friends, iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Dissertation writing is a long and solitary journey. Nevertheless, without the support of certain individuals and institutions, I would not be able to complete this dissertation on time. First and foremost, I would like to thank my advisor Eduardo Gamarra who supported me at all stages of the graduate program. After taking his seminar on South American Politics, I delved into the cross-regional study of populism and eventually published my research paper as an article. As his teaching assistant and student, I had the privilege of listening to his lectures on Latin America and discussing contemporary challenges to democratic governance in the region. Following the comprehensive exams, Gamarra helped me decide on a dissertation topic that allowed me to combine my expertise in Turkish and Latin American Politics. Once I defended my proposal, he encouraged me to travel to all three countries and promote my research beyond Florida International University at conferences. Within the time-span of three years, despite his busy schedule, he always provided me with constructive feedback to improve the quality of my theoretical framework and the analyses of individual countries. I cannot think of any other mentor who could have given me intellectual autonomy while pushing for excellence. I am so grateful to him for turning me from a graduate student to a scholar. Besides my dissertation advisor, I am also thankful to other committee members: Barry Levitt, Tatiana Kostadinova, and Qing Lai. During my first semester in the graduate program, I took Levitt’s Seminar in Comparative Politics and Democratic Institutions in Latin America classes, which taught me the foundational works in the field of comparative politics and the region. In the dissertation stage, he always kept the bar v high and offered a detailed critique of the drafts I shared with him. Similarly, Kostadinova met with me several times and provided her insight on my preliminary ideas as well as more developed pieces of writing. Thanks to her support, I could obtain additional funding through the English Department and dedicate sufficient time for my dissertation research as well as side projects. Finally, I am indebted to Qing Lai for accepting to be a member of the committee and making suggestions on the research design. Even though he was “an outside member,” his office door was always open for me whenever I had questions on public opinion survey data, tables, regressions, and STATA. At FIU, I would also like to acknowledge the support of Adrian Ang and Kevin Evans who did not serve in my committee but introduced me to the literature on polarization in the United States and allowed me to write papers on that subject for their graduate seminars. In addition, I would like to recognize Astrid Arrarás whose co- authorship made me further explore the impact of personalism on democratic backsliding. Outside of the Department of Politics and International Relations, I am grateful to my Spanish teachers Angelica Nelson, Licet Garcia, José Villar, Juan Godoy, and Maria Gómez. Thanks to their efforts, I was able to read, write, and speak Spanish to conduct the relevant dissertation research. After earning the Tinker Field Research Grant, SIPA Broad Fellowship, ASMEA Research Grants, and various travel grants, I could travel to Venezuela, Ecuador, and Turkey to interact with local scholars and institutions. During field research trips and conferences, I benefited from the support and feedback of the following individuals: Guillermo Aveledo, Rodolfo Magallanes, Margarita López Maya, Francisco José Alfaro vi Pareja, Manuel Llorens, Mireya Lozada, Sonia Medina, José Manuel Puente, Angel Álvarez, Miguel Ángel Martínez, Doris Carolina Ponce Lozada, Aime Tillett, Mary Alessandra Sánchez, Armando Romero, Diego Guerrero, Diego Pérez Enríquez, Veronica Larrea, Maria Laura Patiño, Felipe Burbano, Pablo Andrade, César Montúfar, Bekir Ağırdır, Eren Pultar, Aydın Erdem, Tarhan Erdem, Asım Karaömerlioğlu, Aydın Babuna, Behlül Özkan, Kerem Yıldırım, Berk Esen, Sultan Tepe, Karabekir Akkoyunlu, Kerem Öktem, Ayşe Kadıoğlu, Yunus Sözen, Selin Karana, Paul Levin, Kurt Weyland, Elizabeth Zechmeister, Kirk Hawkins, Patricio Navia, Banu Eligür, and Zoila Ponce de Leon. In Caracas, Quito, and Istanbul, I had the privilege to conduct research at the libraries of Instituto de Estudios Superiores de Administración, Universidad Central de Venezuela (IESA), Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales Ecuador (FLACSO), Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador (PUCE), Universidad Andina Simón Bolívar, and Boğaziçi University. I am also thankful to the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP), Comparative Studies of Electoral Systems (CSES), and KONDA for the availability of survey data on Venezuela, Ecuador, and Turkey. On a more personal level, I appreciate my family and friends who rooted for my academic success and provided the much-needed moral support throughout the Ph.D. program. Among my family members, I would like to express my appreciation to my mother, Gülay Manisalı, who never questioned my decision to pursue an academic career and offered her unconditional support throughout the entire process. I also owe Berkay Selçuk, Ümit Selçuk, Halil Uçar, and Başar Manisalı for having my back at all times despite the geographical distance. Last but not least, I would like to acknowledge Dilara Hekimci, Onur Erpul, Senem Çevik, Hunter Adak, Nevena Trajkov, Sercan Canbolat, vii Kabil Demirkıran, İbrahim Sarpkaya, Necati Soydemir, Hüseyin Kahraman, Şeniz Pamuk, Canan Balkan, Zeynep Kılıçoğlu, Aycan Katıtaş, and Melissa Boissiere for their amazing friendship and Alejandra Cruz for becoming my life partner. Because of their love and positive energy, I dedicate this dissertation to my family and friends. viii ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION POPULISM AND LEADER POLARIZATION IN VENEZUELA, ECUADOR, AND TURKEY by Orçun Selçuk Florida International University, 2019 Miami. Florida Professor Eduardo Gamarra, Major Professor This dissertation studies the extent of polarization in Venezuela under Hugo Chávez (1999-2013), Ecuador under Rafael Correa (2007-2017), and Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (2002-2015). Theoretically, it develops the concept of leader polarization to describe cases where the elite or/and public opinion polarize over their levels of affection toward charismatic and dominant chief executives. To explain the occurrence of leader polarization, the dissertation unpacks the inclusionary vs. exclusionary nature of populism toward the members of the in-group and the out-group on symbolic, political, and material levels. It also examines how leader polarization contributes to democratic backsliding. Empirically, the dissertation uses qualitative and quantitative methodologies to understand the dynamics of leader polarization in Venezuela, Ecuador, and Turkey. Through qualitative case studies, it describes how Chávez, Correa, and Erdoğan simultaneously offered inclusion vs. exclusion to chavistas/correístas/pro-Erdoğan groups and anti-chavistas/anti-correístas/anti-Erdoğan groups. Furthermore, it discusses how leader polarization pushed the three countries away from liberal democracy toward an ix authoritarian direction. At the public opinion level, the dissertation uses LAPOP, KONDA, and CSES survey data and aims to find out the predictors
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