Gerald Celente’s TRENDSJOURNAL.COM | FORECASTING WORLDWIDE SINCE 1980 | FALL 2013

HISTORY BEFORE IT HAPPENS

Empire America is fading fast

➤ Time to jump on bitcoin’s bandwagon? ➤ No need for NATO IN THIS ISSUE

HISTORY BEFORE IT HAPPENS

Editor and Publisher Gerald Celente Senior Editor Alex Silberman Contributing Editors Dr. Paul Craig Roberts Bennett Daviss Eldad Benary Subscriptions Manager Emily Arter Illustrations ZUMAPRESS.com Anthony Freda Design COVER STORY Creative Circle Media Solutions, East Providence, RI Empire America is fading fast The country has become a social and cultural bantamweight, from the Cover Image: The abandoned Fisher Body Plant posturing over Syria and government shutdown, to the Obamacare website 21 in Detroit, Michigan. debacle. 16 Jeff Kowalsky/Bloomberg via Getty Images.

All rights reserved. For permission to reproduce or translate material from The Trends Journal®, con- tact The Trends Research Institute. contributors The Trends Journal (ISSN 1065- 2094) is published quarterly by Dr. Paul Craig Roberts (“No need Anthony Freda (Illustrations in The Trends Research Institute. for NATO,” p. 26). Former associate editor “Confronting the truth is facing the ©2013. Globalnomic, Trends Journal, Trend Alert, Trends in of the Wall Street Journal and columnist enemy,” p. 2; “No need for NATO,” p. The News and History Before for Business Week, Dr. Roberts served on 31; “Healthy fast food brings fat profits,” p. it Happens are registered trademarks of the Trends personal and committee staffs in the House and 37; and “Drawing Points,” p. 38) has created award- Research Institute. Senate, and served as Assistant Secretary of the winning illustrations and paintings for numerous

The Trends Research Institute Treasury for Economic Policy during the Reagan publications including the New Yorker, Time, P.O. Box 3476 Administration. Roberts was Senior Research Rolling Stone, and the New York Times. He has been Kingston, NY 12402 Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, selected to be part of The Society of Illustrators 845 331-3500 and was appointed to the William E. Simon and American Illustration annual competitions. www.trendsresearch.com Chair in Political Economy, Center for Strategic Freda considers himself an information warrior, and International Studies, Georgetown and his politically charged imagery currently graces University. He is recipient of the U.S. millions of computer screens via a wide spectrum Treasury’s Silver Medal and of the of mainstream and alternative websites and Legion of Honor conveyed by the magazines including Trends Journal. His artwork French government. often re-purposes vintage American ephemera into ironic, darkly humorous takes on the issues burning in the zeitgeist.

THE TRENDS JOURNAL | FALL 2013 FEATURES WHAT IN THE WORLD IS Confronting the truth GOING ON? is facing the enemy Nothing new Each new day seems The martial art of trend forecasting 2 about social media... to bring with it a new geopolitical crisis, one Political craziness: ...except that your personal data now more political debacle, belongs to everyone 32 more dire economic Your money and your life warnings, increased social A conversation with Gerald Celente Healthy fast food disturbances, another about the state of the global economy 4 brings fat profits environmental threat. What does it all mean? What can A trend that’s picking up steam 34 The bitcoin bubble be done? How will it end? Gerald Celente’s Trends Spike, crash, what’s next? 8 We’ve only Journal® is the only just begun magazine in the world No need for NATO to play that pinpoints how today’s current events form future Stop spreading war, and keep the money Gaming, from Pong at home 26 trends and how they to smartphone 40 will affect your business, career, family and future … your life. DEPARTMENTS Founded by a political atheist, agenda- and Epiphany Globalnomics Drawing Another View Scorecard advertising-free, and Gerald’s brush Unemployment points Evictions Hits and beholden to no one, with history among youth Media circus everywhere misses Trends Journal provides unbiased insights, analysis 12 24 38 44 48 and forecasts of critical socioeconomic, finance, political, economic, business, consumer/retail, entertainment, technology, science and other trends Alex Silberman (“The Lisa Ramirez (“Healthy fast that are fact-based, data- bitcoin bubble,” p. 8) has been an food brings fat profits,” p. 34) has driven and on the cutting editor at the Trends Journal for been living and writing in New edge. nearly twenty years. He has also York’s Hudson Valley for more Gerald Celente’s track record speaks for itself. worked at the Wall Street Journal, than 20 years. She began her career He’s been forecasting Life magazine and Motorcycle Weekly. as an obituary writer for a daily tabloid and has since worldwide since 1980. He frequently writes on cyber events and health care worked as a reporter and editor, covering everything No one has been so for numerous publications. from crime to politics to pop culture. She is currently right, on so many issues, a freelancer and lives in Summitville, N.Y. with her so often! If you want to anticipate change, Ric Dragon (“Nothing new about social media...,” husband and daughter. p. 32) is the author of Social Marketology, and the take proactive measures to seize opportunities CEO of DragonSearch, a digital marketing agency. In (“We’ve only just begun to play,” Zeke West and develop profit addition to being a regular speaker at global events p. 40) is director of media relations for the Trends strategies, subscribe to including NMX, SMX Social, Brite Conf, Brands Research Institute. As an avid “gamer” for nearly Trends Journal. Read Conf, and ReThink, Dragon two decades and educated in the science of trends about “History Before It is a contributing columnist and forecasting, West and his team at the Institute Happens” from the world leader in trend forecasting. for Social Media Today and provide a trends-eye view of techno entertainment Marketing Land. trends past, present and future.

FALL 2013 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 1 KEYNOTES Confronting the truth is facing the enemy The martial art of trend forecasting By Gerald Celente PUBLISHER As part of my morning meditation, I thank my ancestors by name for all they blessed me with. I visualize my mother and father, great grandmother (I only have a photo of my mother’s grand- mother), grandparents and aunts and uncles on both sides of the family. It is all the love, kindness and wisdom they gave me that laid the foundation for me to become who I am. How I loved being with each of them. I fondly remember my Uncle Al, “The Dude,” my Aunt Zizi’s husband, who used to often take us to Yankee games on Sunday afternoons (I wrote What Zizi Gave Honeyboy in honor of Zizi — William Mor- row, 2002). This was in the Yankees’ golden years of Yogi Berra, Mickey Mantle, Billy Martin, Whitey Ford, Bill “Moose” Skowron, Elston Howard, Hank Bauer, “Bullet” Bob Turley and Don Larsen, to name just a few. After the game, Uncle Al would say to me: “Who’s your favorite Uncle.” I would look him square in the eye and say: “I don’t have a favorite Uncle. I love all my uncles.” And boy, did I. What a group of men, all cats with their own groove and style. I was the youngest of five until my mom had two “change-of-life” children, as they called them back then. So I spent a good deal of time with her alone while my older brothers and sisters were in school. In those days, as it has been since recorded history, it was common for mothers to stay at home and raise their children. I remember from a young age, for whatever reason, her looking at me and saying more than once, “I hate cowards.”

FINDING THE COURAGE “Cowards!” As I see it, that’s what America and so many nations have become. Do you live in a na- tion of cowards? As I write elsewhere in this Trends Journal, before any plans can be developed to create a positive future, what is first required is for a critical mass to find the ouragec within themselves to stand

Anthony Freda up against corrupt political and financial forces. The

2 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | ISSUE DATE keynotes

masses must demand policies and practices that will bring societies to higher levels of being. But the view from my trends-eye, cat-bird seat is of a general public that has shown itself too timid to fight against the overt injustices that prevail. Are they cowards? Or do they cower in fear because they don’t know how to fight? Thanks to my upbringing, education and self mo- tivation, I consider my life a success. But had it not been for one person outside my family influence, I could never be operating at the level I am now. While I was always a scrappy kid, Close Combat was the glue that brought it all together. I learned from John Perkins, one of America’s top martial arts masters (www.AttackProof.com). I eventually became a second-degree black belt and even ran my own Close Combat school. Perkins taught me how to fight in battle, fight for my life and not allow anyone to bully or silence me. He also taught me how to fight for my freedom of expression. He taught me how to back up my words Edward Snowden, with action when needed. He taught me how to Bradley (now Chelsea) Manning and Glenn speak my mind without fear. John Perkins taught me Greenwald, clockwise how to fight to defend my dignity and self respect. from top left, hardly He gave me the courage never to be a coward. fit our idea of brave, macho men. They’re just baby-faced kids who had HEROES COME IN MANY SHAPES AND SIZES world-wide impact. While it worked for me, not everyone needs Top left: Human Rights Watch; to learn Close Combat to be a fighter. As I see it, Other images: AP Edward Snowden, who risked his life to blow the whistle on government spying, is a true fighter. Brad- ley Manning, who exposed the wanton slaughter by American military madmen gleefully gunning down vided with the unequivocal proof of primary source defenseless Iraqi citizens from their helicopter, is a documents people can fight back. If our govern- true fighter. And Glenn Greenwald, the journalist ments will not give this information to us, then we who has exposed so much of the criminality of gov- must take it for ourselves.” ernment abuses and lies is a true fighter. Are you ready to grasp the truth? Can you find it? Hardly “macho” men. Indeed, Bradley Manning, Do you have the courage to look for the truth even now Chelsea, and the others have shown courage far though you may not like the way it looks or sounds? beyond the common men and women of their coun- One of the many lessons I learned from John tries, who either make excuses for the politicians Perkins was about the ego, which, if obsessed over, they believe in or willfully succumb to the indignities leads to self-absorption, a loss of touch with reality, imposed upon them by the psychopaths in charge. and ultimately self-destruction. The only time we Sarah Harrison is the British journalist who ac- should recognize and utilize “ego,” said Perkins, is companied Snowden to Russia and who also has when someone threatens your life. That’s when ego gone into exile in Berlin. She wrote: counts. “In these times of secrecy and abuse of power there Your life, your health, your well being, your future is only one solution — transparency. If our govern- and the future of your children are being threatened. ments are so compromised that they will not tell us What, if any action, will you take? The choice is the truth, then we must step forward to grasp it. Pro- yours. TJ

FALL 2013 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 3 REAL ECONOMICS

www.baileybrothaz.com

Political craziness: Your money and your life In this question-and-answer feature with Trends Journal Publisher Gerald Celente, we spend some time on the impact the political craziness in Washington has on your life. Who does Celente blame for the paralysis that has overtaken political leaders in D.C. and across the globe? We also explore a number of global economic developments that are emerging as key trends. Those trend lines include the sustained gloomy jobs forecast for the world’s young.

Was there any single political figure, party or Both political parties also are responsible. But they strategy responsible for the ridiculous budget are not “parties.” That’s White Shoe Boys lingo for and debt limit impasse in Washington this fall? “gangs.” Republicans-Democrats. Capone-Lansky, The main single political figure is the President. War Bloods-Crips. While their mannerisms and social and peace, crime or the economy, he sets the agenda. behavior differ, each, in the pursuit of money and The president promotes the policy and sets the tone. power, have track records of pillage and plunder. Yes, “the buck stops (and starts) here.” In 1780, shortly after the birth of our nation, John

4 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | FALL 2013 real economics

Photo © Kristopher Skinner/MCT/ZUMAPRESS.com HealthCare.gov An October rally opposing the government shut- Dollars ordinary people spend on health care insur- down in Oakland, California. Congress wasn’t work- ance won’t be available for consumer goods, putting ing for the people during this sorry episode. downward pressure on retail sales.

Adams, warned: “There is nothing which I dread so shocked at the level of irresponsibility of America’s much as a division of the republic into two great par- politicians, whose selfish actions jeopardized global ties, each arranged under its leader, and concerting financial stability. That said, with all the talk about measures in opposition to each other. This, in my a new reserve currency away from the dollar, what humble apprehension, is to be dreaded as the great- would replace it? For example, there is a lot of specu- est political evil under our Constitution.” lation that the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, What John Adams dreaded (as did George Wash- South Africa) and other nations want to establish a ington, James Fenimore Cooper, Teddy Roosevelt reserve currency to rival the dollar and we have writ- and others) has now come to pass. Not only in the ten about that extensively in past Trends Journals. U.S., but in many of the so-called “democratic” na- But with the world economy weakening, and many tions where just one or two parties rule. Look at the of the BRICS saddled with their own financial prob- U.S. We have a gang of 535 men and women in Con- lems, they don’t provide a reliable alternative. The gress who in practice only represent the special in- same holds true with the euro. terests who enrich them and not the public interests they pretend to represent. Politicians call the money How much of a real threat is Obamacare to the they get to pass legislation that promotes those United States’ economy? special interests “campaign contributions.” In Bronx- After the 2012 election, despite President Obama’s speak, it’s called “bribes and payoffs.” pledge not to raise taxes on the middle class, Wash- For a truly democratic nation, I advocate that ington raised the payroll tax. Immediately, retail sales people running for office should “pledge allegiance to slumped. Now, with everyone either being forced to their constituents” instead of to their “party.” If the buy an Obamacare plan or taxed for not buying one, nations that call themselves democracies were truly dollars being spent on health care insurance won’t representative forms of government, those holding be spent on consumer goods. That, combined with office should be non-aligned and unaffiliated. declining wages, will put even more downward pres- sure on retail sales and ultimately the GDP. How much direct cause-and-effect do you see between the budget and debt limit craziness in Do you see any new trend lines in the business Washington and world markets? of health care that are promising, perhaps offer- As you will note in my “Empire America Fading Fast” ing some opportunity for entrepreneurs? trend forecast (page 16 in this issue), the world lead- On the micro-level, yes. The big entrepreneurial ers of finance and leaders of nations were literally trend I have been talking about for years is Whole We have a gang of 535 men and women in Congress who in practice only represent the special interests who enrich them and not the public interests they pretend to represent.

FALL 2013 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 5 real economics Those who understand the Whole Health Healing trend, and supply products and services for it, will create more than entrepreneurial opportunities — they will create new market sectors and categories.

Health Healing. And from it, many other opportuni- percent of the new jobs created in the U.S. over the ties will arise. past year are part-time. I wrote in 1995 that young But while this trend will grow and spread, it does people, unable to earn a living wage, would be forced have its limits. Remember, America is a first-, sec- to live with their parents. That reality is now a given. ond- and third-world nation wrapped in one. And as Those who went to college are burdened with over the data prove, the second world — the middle class a trillion dollars in debt with no way out. For those — is rapidly shrinking and moving to third-world without college educations, the once decently pay- status. Since to live, eat and think in a whole health ing manufacturing and production jobs that helped fashion requires hard work, money and dedication, it build our middle class were shipped overseas. is a trend mostly embraced by the more affluent and It will require radical socioeconomic and geo- educated. But that is still a large market sector that political government action to restore the policies expands well beyond the so-called “one percent.” You and safeguards that were put in place over the last don’t have to be rich to live smart. century, enabling young people to build households Another major driver behind the trend is that with and move up the economic ladder. If that does not most of the Western population’s post-World War II happen, I can forecast with complete certainty that Baby Boom population aging, I foresee longevity cen- household formation will continue to decline. ters closely tied to Whole Health Healing. In essence, you can’t have a long healthy life without it. Those If you are under age 25, there’s a 40 percent who understand the trend, and supply products and chance around the globe you are unemployed, a services for it, will create more than entrepreneurial trend that is now years in the making and hold- opportunities — they will create new market sectors ing steady. What is your long-term forecast? and categories. Any signs in the years ahead this trend can re- verse itself? In October, The Wall Street Journal reported: No, the trend will not reverse itself. In fact, getting “The odds that a young adult in the U.S. will a good paying job will become more difficult. Even become the head of a household, whether as an China, once the slave-labor capitol of the world, is owner or renter, has fallen more between 1990 losing business to even cheaper labor countries. In and 2010 than in previous decades.” What is fact, manufacturing jobs are being repatriated to your take on this now well entrenched trend? the U.S. and Mexico because pay scales have fallen It was a trend long in the making. And it was a trend so sharply. And, when long distance shipping is fac- forecast that I made back in 1995 when I wrote Trends tored, it’s cheaper to make it closer to the markets 2000. People forget the great “downsizing” trends where the products will be consumed. that ravaged the workforce when multinationals, hedge funds and buyout firms began to slash pay- Summer and early fall months are showing a rolls, consolidate operations and send jobs offshore continued slowing of foreclosure rates across with the passage of NAFTA and the deregulation of most of the United States. What does this the financial/banking sectors. mean? Will this trend continue? This is what I wrote back then of the Gen Xers, The worst of the foreclosure trend is temporarily who were the equivalent of today’s Millennials: over. With interest rates so low and many mortgages “Overall, your generation makes 20 percent less in refinanced, people have a better chance of meeting real income than your father’s generation. In 1973, their mortgage obligations. I expect the foreclosure 23 percent of households heads under twenty-five rate to spike again when the next economic crisis owned their own home; in 1990, only 15 percent did.” strikes. And, considering the underlying fragility of I also showed how in the first half of the nineties, a global economy that has been propped up by the the temporary-help industry soared 50 percent. Fast unprecedented tens of trillions of dollars, euros, forward to 2013. According to some studies, over 90 pounds and yuan being pumped into the markets by

6 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | FALL 2013 real economics central banks, an equity market crash, a bond market that when the Fed tapering stops, the hot money that explosion or other economic calamity could happen flowed into their countries will flow out even faster. at any time. India is in worse shape than China. At a time when India’s economy is failing, it is forced to raise interest How are you feeling about gold these days? rates to protect its currency. A tight monetary policy As I said, this is an artificial recovery built on a house as the nation trends toward dramatic decline will of fiat currencies. At some point the stimulus will worsen an already bad situation. stop, interest rates will explode and the economy will As for China, they will try to build their domestic crash. I see gold as a safe haven asset for when cur- economy as exports slow. Will they be successful? rencies can no longer maintain their artificial highs. I Yes, but considering their overheated real estate mar- don’t trade gold. I buy gold for my golden years ket and looming debt, success will prove limited. A savvy investor friend of mine has what I believe is a sound precious metals strategy, especially for a The early economic forecasts for 2014 are be- young person. Each month he buys whatever he can ginning to trickle out, and natural gas, on the afford in gold or silver and puts it away. Over the strength of new technologies like horizontal long term, the prices average out in his favor. While drilling and fracking, is stirring high hopes in I see little downside risk over the decades with such the energy sectors. Agree? a strategy, remember I’m a trend forecaster, not a fi- It is certainly good for some energy sectors, but not nancial advisor, so I do not provide financial advice. great. Gas prices are steadily dropping. And, if there is a deal to lift sanctions against Iran, which is es- China’s and India’s rates of inflation have been timated to have the third largest oil reserves in the steadily rising for months. How much of a con- world, that will mean more product flowing into cern is this to the rest of the world? the markets. This is at a time when supply is already What should concern the rest of the world are growing faster than demand, which will mean even China’s slowing economy, rapidly rising real estate lower prices and thus, smaller profits. prices and debt bubble. As for India, its growth rate For example, China, the world’s largest oil buyer, has nearly halved over the past three years and its saw its crude oil imports increase 3.4 percent year to rupee recently hit all-time lows against the dollar. date, yet, as a result of weakening prices, its total cost The general fear among emerging-market nations is of energy is down. TJ

Jonathan Knight, a recent graduate of Cal Lutheran University, passes out resumes on Wilshire Boulevard in Los Angeles this summer. The former Washington, D.C. intern has found it tough to launch his career in a tight job market. Cheryl A. Guerrero/ Los Angeles Times/MCT

FALL 2013 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 7 TRENDING

bitcoin.org The bitcoin bubble: spike, crash, what’s next?

By Alex Silberman CONTRIBUTING EDITOR The buzz about bitcoin has become a roar over the past year as the digital currency has under- gone a wild spike, fall, and subsequent rise in valuation. Its fluctuation from $11 per bitcoin (BTC) at the start of November 2012 to well over $1,000 per BTC in late November 2013 has made it fodder for the endless news cycle and fuel for dreams of easy riches. Along the way, bitcoin has at- tracted waves of new enthusiasts, entrepreneurs, promoters and speculators, all of them wonder- ing, “Is it just a bubble?” In the beginning, that’s 2008, a person or per- created over time — digitally “mined” through a pro- sons unknown, using the name Satoshi Nakamoto, cess of mathematical computation that anyone could floated the noble idea of a digital international cur- engage in — eliminating the threat of inflation. rency that would be free of control by central banks Perhaps best of all, at a time when banks and gov- and free of manipulation by national treasuries. All ernments had proven themselves untrustworthy, transactions would be open and tracked in a digital the currency could be traded peer-to-peer, cutting register, though the people or companies making out all middlemen and crossing all borders. Like the them would enjoy cryptographically protected ano- internet itself, it would be global, decentralized and nymity. A finite amount of the currency would be democratic.

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Though bitcoin currently remains free of the influence of central banks and national treasuries, it is not immune to manipulation.

WILD GYRATIONS IN VALUE The idea came to life in August of 2008, when a domain called bitcoin.org was registered anony- mously and the bitcoin computer protocols put in Early proponents of place. The first block of 50 bitcoins were “mined” bitcoin, the Winkelvoss on January 3, 2009 and the first exchange value — twins bought up published in October and based on the cost of the about one percent of the currency electricity required to run a computer and mine one for approximately BTC — was 1,309.03 BTC to one dollar. $1 million. That On November 6, 2010, BTC briefly touched $0.50 investment is currently per BTC at Mt. Gox, the world’s first bitcoin ex- valued at over $100 million. change, on trades of 32,756 BTC. On November 30, ZUMAPRESS.com 2013, a bitcoin was trading in the vicinity of $1,159, while most of the high-minded reasons expressed at or sold for “real” money. the time of the currency’s creation were beginning to Though bitcoin currently remains free of the appear to be wishful thinking. influence of central banks and national treasuries, As bitcoin approaches its fifth anniversary, it is it is not immune to manipulation. Early adherents clearly in a transitional stage. The wild gyrations in and speculators in bitcoin have amassed enormous value that have earned bitcoin so much attention concentrations of bitcoin wealth. The Winkelvoss have also made it appear to be less a currency than twins, for example, famous for their battle with Face- a speculative platform. Today, the majority of daily book, announced in April 2013 that they owned one bitcoin transactions are made at virtual casinos, for percent of all bitcoin in circulation. A Maltese hedge gambles on dice and poker, or at the many bitcoin fund named Exante claimed, at about the same time, exchanges where the digital currency can be bought to have cornered another one percent in its Bitcoin

Bitcoin market price over the past year in U.S. dollars

$1,400

$1,200

$1,000

$800

$600

$400 MARKET PRICE $200

$0

Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013

Source: blockchain.info The volatility of bitcoin pricing — which nearly tripled in November 2013 — makes spending bitcoin less attractive than speculating in it.

FALL 2013 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 9 trending

Fund and boasts of a 1,000-percent return over three months. Such bitcoin holders, along with the many compa- nies that have sprung up to create an infrastructure for bitcoin trading and transactions, have a vested in- terest in maintaining the buzz that feeds the frenzy. They also, theoretically, have the means to manipu- late the market in a significant fashion. Consider this: in the 24 hours of November 7, 2013, the bitcoin market price at the major exchanges — as tracked at www.blockchain.info — went from $257 to $297, an increase of about 16 percent, on only $22 million in trades. On November 11, market value increased 11 percent, rising from $339 to $375, on only $7.5 million University of Nicosia, Cyprus, will accept in trades. bitcoin payment for WOOING THE MAINSTREAM tuition. Maintaining the buzz about bitcoin requires that it University of Nicosia be perceived as closing in on mainstream acceptance, both in real world usage as a currency and as a legiti- Other ways to spend mate investment vehicle. To that end, press releases your bitcoin include fly, hyping every development to the tech and finan- buying a trip to space with Virgin Galactic, cial press, much of which takes these self-interested and placing bets at alerts at face value. virtual poker. When Baidu, commonly referred to as China’s Upper right: MarsScientific. com and Clay Center Google, announced on October 15, 2013 that it would Observatory accept bitcoin payments for security services from Lower right: SatoshiAces.com one of its divisions, it was hailed as groundbreaking news. Here was more proof that bitcoin had real value and that major players were prepared to accept Christopher Hall, owner of Split Ends in it. While the news certainly had an effect on market Santa Ana, Calif., cuts value and real impact on Chinese interest and invest- the hair of customer ment, the actuality has been almost totally symbolic. Scott Nguyen, who In the month since Baidu started accepting bitcoin, pays in bitcoin. only 35 transactions have been made, with a total ZUMAPRESS.com value of $515. Chump change, indeed. The real story here is that Baidu accepts bitcoin only for its recently acquired Jiasule division and, ironically, is using the allure of bitcoin to boost its own image as an innovative service. The Baidu statement begins, in translation, “How can we reflect the characteristics of a trendy IT person and a professional webmaster? The answer, of course, is to own bitcoins!!!” It goes on to say, “Baidu Jiasule, as the innovator of the Internet, has become the first cloud services vendor to support bitcoin, giving us richer payment methods and ex- perience.” Still, efforts to build a legitimate investment en- vironment and to create a vigorous infrastructure for bitcoin as a vehicle for international monetary transfers are being seriously and creatively under-

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A customer arranges to transfer money to family in Mexico at a store in San Ysidro, California. Using bitcoin for such transfers could save consumers billions in fees. ZUMAPRESS.com taken. Many of the larger players are focusing on a net worth of over $1 million) to get into bitcoin selling bitcoin as a way to avoid the high transfer without the hassle of buying, storing and provid- fees charged by credit card and wire companies. ing security for the digital currency. The Trust even They point to the more than $500 billion annually makes it possible to include bitcoin as part of a self- remitted to third world nations — and the $4.6 bil- directed IRA. How much more mainstream can you lion in transfer fees reaped by Western Union alone get than that? — as an opportunity for bitcoin to do good and It is instructive, then, to consider the Bitcoin In- prosper at the same time. The companies that can vestment Trust’s advisory to potential investors re- simplify the bitcoin transfer process enough for even garding risk factors. These risks include: computer-klutzes to use and find a way to safely • Market adoption. BIT points out that bitcoin lock in time-of-transfer values stand to become may never be broadly taken up as part of the world’s long-term and viable businesses, even after the bit- financial system, “in which case, bitcoin may lose coin bubble bursts. most, if not all, of it value.” In September, SecondMarket Inc., the registered • Government regulation. As bitcoin has become broker-dealer known for facilitating trades in pri- more visible, it has begun to attract attention by gov- vate companies such as Facebook Inc., announced ernments in regard to regulation and taxation. BIT the creation of the Bitcoin Investment Trust (BIT). notes that “future restrictions by state and federal au- The first U.S. fund to invest solely in bitcoin was thorities may have a significant impact on the value hailed as a step toward solidifying the bitcoin image. of bitcoin.” This may be nowhere more significant It would allow institutions and qualified investors than in China, now a major bitcoin venue, whose (people earning over $200,000 annually or with autocratic government has shown itself to be highly protective of its currency. • Security. As its value increases, bitcoin becomes more attractive to hackers and fraudsters. On No- vember 12, a Chinese bitcoin exchange shut its web- site down and disappeared, along with $5 million in other people’s bitcoin. BIT warns that “bitcoin that are lost or stolen cannot be replaced, as transactions are irrevocable.” • Tax treatment. Due to a lack of clarity regarding bitcoin as an investment, “the tax consequences to a BIT investor could differ from the investor’s expecta- ZUMAPRESS.com tions.” Bitcoin Wallet, the first Android smartphone app, So, there is some caveat emptor to keep in mind lets users take their bitcoin wherever they go, and to engage in credit card-like transactions by scan- while you read about the latest spike or crash in bit- ning an app-generated QR-code. coin value. TJ

FALL 2013 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 11 EPIPHANY My brush with history: Becoming a political atheist few of my Catholic school friends and I took a bus to see him. As his car left the campaign stop, I ran up behind it. I reached over the back of the trunk to touch his outstretched hand and made contact. As life would have it, we would connect again.

FAST FORWARD The year was 1992. The place was Dallas, Texas. It took me 46 years to get from 2940 Hone Avenue in the Bronx, where seven of us lived in a five-room walk-up, to Dallas. It was there that ex-Texas Gov- ernor and former Treasury Secretary John Connally, who was almost assassinated along with John Ken- nedy, wanted to meet me on a Sunday. I’d planned to get away with my wife to an Adiron- dack lake resort that fall weekend, where I was to give the keynote address to a health care association the following Monday. But I knew in my gut that going to Dallas was more important than going to Lake George. It was weeks before the 1992 presidential election, and there I was having lunch with Connally and a few others in the café at the Anatole Hotel. I was asked to meet with him because he wanted to know how, three years earlier, I’d forecast the rise of a third political party when only 13 percent of the public President John F. By Gerald Celente thought such a movement possible. What’s more, Kennedy riding in his PUBLISHER motorcade, minutes in my book Trend Tracking (1989), I had singled out before he was shot and Fifty years have passed since the Ross Perot as just the kind of political maverick who killed. John Connally, the governor of Texas, is assassination of John F. Kennedy in Dallas on could pull it off. Perot, a third party candidate, was sitting directly in front November 22, 1963. Everyone old enough to making a serious run for the White House. of the president. I’d come all this way to have lunch with Connally, remember that day recalls where they were Baylor University Collections of but frankly, I wasn’t an admirer. Political Materials/Walt Cisco, Dallas Morning News and what they were doing when they heard I thought of him as a cowboy con artist, a smooth- the news. I’ve developed the habit of searching talking wheeler-dealer only interested in feathering his own nest. But as he talked over lunch, I realized the news every November 22 to see how the my dislike was based on his media image. The more Kennedy assassination is commemorated. For he talked, the more ashamed I felt for prejudging the most part, it is only dutifully mentioned or him. Secondhand dislike swiftly turned to deep ad- barely reported on, though this year, the 50th miration. I found myself getting annoyed with the others anniversary of the assassination, is somewhat at the table. I’d never heard anyone speak as articu- different. lately and with such economy of words as Connally. As a young boy, I saw John Kennedy campaign in Each word seemed like a sentence, each sentence a front of the Yonkers train station at Larkin Plaza. A paragraph. I just wanted to hear what he had to say

12 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | FALL 2013 epiphany

and what was on his mind. “Please shut up!” I’d say to myself when the others at the table chimed in, hoping the power of suggestion would work on them. It didn’t. Quietly and courte- ously, he would yield to them. But I would not. Whenever there was a pause, or I was able to make an opening, I’d prompt Connally with a question to lead him back to his previous stream of thought. “What do you say John, ready to go now?” boomed John Jay Hooker, the Tennessee gadfly who’d ar- ranged the rendezvous. “The limousine is waiting.” In his rumpled seersucker suit, sporting a white Stetson, the tall Hooker was right out of Central Casting. It was he who’d brought us all together and, unbeknownst to me, had arranged with Connally and his wife Nellie to go with us to the Texas School Book Depository. Hooker had lost a close race for Governor of Ten- nessee several years earlier but never left the politi- cal scene. His finely appointed Nashville apartment walls were covered with pictures of him and the late- greats. It was a who’s who of American politics: all the Kennedy boys, Hubert Humphrey, Lyndon John- son and a cast of Congressional movers and shakers. He was now a vociferous opponent of the buying and selling of elections through campaign financing.

FALL 2013 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 13 epiphany

President Kennedy. A tall and rangy man, Connally imitated his uncomfortable scrunched-up position in the small seat and how he was holding his Stetson on his knee. To his side sat Nellie, directly in front of Jackie Kennedy. “I heard a gun shot. I knew it was a gunshot because I’d been hunting since I was a little boy,” John Connally with his Connally said. “I looked to the right and didn’t see wife, Nellie, and Gerald Celente in front of the anything. I was wearing a dark blue suit that day,” he Texas Book Depository recalled. “When I looked to my left, I saw brains on in 1992. my shoulder. I knew they were brains because my “They won’t let go of the tit, Celente my boy,” he daddy was a butcher. Then I felt as though there was said, looking and sounding almost like W.C. Fields. a pounding on my back,” he said, making two parallel “Once they’re in power, they’re all the same. They fists as if to mimic someone hitting him on the back. think that tit’s only for them to suck on and that no He grimaced as he explained what he felt when the one else is entitled to the mother’s milk of our great bullet meant for Kennedy tore through his body. country,” Hooker told me, referring to the Demo- And so he and Nellie went on, recounting the min- crats’ and Republicans’ permanent grip on the politi- ute details of that gruesome event: The three gun- cal system. shots and the ensuing chaos… The screams of fear… John Jay Hooker, the man who prompted Ross Nellie throwing her body over her husband to shield Perot to throw his hat into the race for president in him… The mad dash drive to Parkland Hospital. 1992, had now convinced John Connally and his wife Connally had incredible luck in that worst of times. Nellie to return to the scene of JFK’s assassination. A thoracic surgeon, on break at Parkland, seeing the This would be the first time they’d gone back since motorcade screaming into the hospital, rushed to the the day it happened, almost 30 years earlier. And emergency room and operated on Connally’s lung there I was, this kid from the Bronx, parked outside wound at once. the Book Depository listening to John and Nellie It was hard for me to process what I was hearing Connally tell, firsthand, what had happened on and how privileged I was to be there on what would November 22, 1963. be, for me, a day of epiphany. Gerald Celente and On the way back to the hotel hardly a word was his dad at a party just WHAT CONNALLY SAW spoken. On my left sat Hooker. Pat Caddell, the poll- before his passing. Connally set the scene, pointing out the direction ster, sat on my right. Connally was across from me. The splotches on his the presidential motorcade had taken around Dealey hands were like those To his right was Rama Fox, Larry King’s girlfriend on Connally’s. Plaza. He had been sitting in the jump seat in front of at the time, and Nellie to his left. It was then that I figured out why I was so taken with the way Con- nally was speaking, with his calmness, extraordinary clarity, his gestures and assuredness. I knew with ab- solute certainty that he was a man with a lot to say … and not much time to say it. Connally was dying. I could see the signs — a stiffness and weakness like those I noticed some 10 years earlier when my father, may his soul rest in peace, was dying. Like my Dad, John was suffering from a pulmonary con- dition. His was from the gunshot that had ripped through his lungs. My Dad’s lungs were rotted from the asbestos poisoning he got when he worked in the shipyards during World War II. When I looked at Connally’s hands, I saw my fa- ther’s hands before he died. They were stiff, with big, purplish splotches — a reaction to massive doses of prednisone, a cortisone used to temper his lung in- flammation. 14 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | FALL 2013 epiphany Connally, remembered as a “straight shooter” by “You don’t have a clue of what’s going on those who knew him, would die of pulmonary fibro- sis eight months later. I don’t believe he consciously in the government, and neither do the knew he was dying when we met on that sunny Sun- day. But I was convinced that it was his subconscious American people. Because if they did, that dominated his conversation. there’d be a revolution in this country.” When the limo pulled up to the hotel, Connally and I, the middle passengers, were the last to get out. John Connally, speaking privately to Gerald Celente The others were a dozen steps ahead of us, heading for the elevators, when Connally stopped and turned to the Secretary of the New York State Senate. Rec- to me. “Gerald, I read your book and it’s a fine piece ognizing that I was seeing politics in action from a of work,” he said. “And I know that your heart is in different vantage point than those caught up in the the right place, but you don’t have a clue of what’s process, I designed and taught what I believe to have going on in the government, and neither do the been one of the first courses in “American Politics American people. Because if they did, there’d be a and Campaign Technology” at St. John’s University. I revolution in this country.” spent the next several years as a Government Affairs Specialist working between Chicago and Washing- MY MOMENT OF EPIPHANY ton, D.C. Without another word, he headed for the elevators Beginning as a believer in the American democratic and caught up with the others. For an instant I stood system, I held to that belief into my early 30s. But, by alone. I didn’t know what was behind that remark, the time I met Connally, I had lost my naiveté and but with Connally as the source, it came less as a harbored deep doubts about government. And my shock than as a confirmation. Even without knowing disdain for most politicians was growing. It was not the details, I understood what Connally was telling just what Connally said that moved me, but the au- me. Over the years, the unique Globalnomic trend thority and gravity of the way he said it. He was my forecasting system that I had developed, and which epiphany. was proving remarkably successful, had given me an We all went up to his suite and had a couple of advantage in viewing the world and the machina- drinks, a few snacks and some small talk. Hooker was tions of government with a critical eye. I was able to trying to sign Connally on to the board of directors stand outside the political box and beyond the scope for a chain of steak houses he wanted to develop. of print and broadcast media reporting. With no Caddell, a Washington insider, and Connally traded agenda to sell and beholden to no one, I had become tales of political days gone by. Rama cooed about her a political atheist, uncommitted to either party and engagement to Larry King. interested only in accurately interpreting the facts. I half listened and said nothing. My brain and body But what I had not quite realized before my lunch were still waiting for the elevator, as I replayed Con- with Connally was the extent of the corruption and nally’s statement: “If the American people knew what the slim odds of anyone bucking the system and win- was going on in this government, there’d be a revolu- ning. tion.” This was coming from the horse’s mouth. Here That line reinforced my political atheism. I refused was a man who had been at the top of government to believe in political dogma, genuflect before any and deep inside the corridors of power. This was not political preacher or vow obedience to any political Sunday morning Beltway babble coming from Face god. I would not be a member of any party or follow the Nation or Meet the Press. This was a one-on-one any leader. straight scoop coming from a man in the position That day in Dallas strengthened my resolve to base to know and talking outside of a public forum. I forecasts on verifiable data and to select those facts recognized it as a singular and privileged moment. I that illuminated the actual situation rather than was given insight into the real gravity of just how bad those supporting a particular political/economic/ things were. It was the culmination of a long process. philosophical agenda. Straight out of graduate school, I had begun my “If the American people knew what was going on … .” career as the campaign coordinator for the Repub- I wondered if revolution would happen and when. lican/Conservative mayoral candidate in Yonkers, Twenty years later, I no longer wonder. The second New York. From there, I went to Albany as assistant American Revolution has begun. TJ FALL 2013 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 15 DECLINE AND FALL

A “support our troops” yellow ribbon on a barn in Fresno, Calif. The ribbon became Empire America a politicized symbol during the Gulf War in the early 1990s, and the post-911 invasions of is fading fast Afghanistan and Iraq, helping rally Americans during these wars. Criticizing the decision The country has become a social to invade Afghanistan and, in particular, Iraq was unheard of early on. and cultural bantamweight Photo © Ruaridh Stewart/ ZUMAPRESS.com By Gerald Celente PUBLISHER mpire America Fading Fast.” I wrote that forecast for the Trends Journal in 2002. It al- most cost me my career and nearly killed the Journal. After publication of that autumn issue, I was blackballed by the broadcast and print media that had once regularly featured “ me, my subscription base collapsed and I was persona non grata on the speaking circuit. E In 2002, with the wounds of 9/11 still burning swiftly trending into a social, cultural and lifestyle ban- deeply in the nation’s flesh, I predicted, “the war tamweight. Having made its mark and had its day, the against Afghanistan will be a costly failure.” With U.S.A. is taking a familiar path toward self-destruction, 88 percent of Americans in favor of the war, yellow one that has been chosen by empires past, both famous ribbons tied around anything that didn’t move, and and forgotten. “Made in China” American flags flying everywhere, Whether by cosmic design or coincidence, just as the my trend forecasts were exactly the opposite of what 20th century — the American Century — is fading into the media wanted to hear, our subscribers wanted to history, so too are the nation’s glory and prestige (from read and the nation wanted to believe: Trends Journal 2002). The United States of America, currently the world’s To forecast trends requires an understanding of undisputed military and economic heavyweight, is where we are and the knowledge of how we got here.

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Today, more than a decade after I wrote “Empire America Fading Fast,” it doesn’t take much convinc- ing for most Americans, and much of the world, to finally admit just how far this once-proud nation, a nation I love and cherish, has fallen. Anyone half-awake and not whacked out on pre- scription drugs, anyone capable of crunching hard numbers and adding up cold facts, knows the story: The United States of America is being run and ruined by a gang of lunatics. With indisputable evidence of their ongoing social, economic and geopolitical fail- ures, what self-respecting human being would not be shocked and saddened by Washington’s distasteful behavior? The Emperor Has No Clothes. Remember Presi- dent Obama’s recent attempt to march America into a Syrian War? He told President Assad that he had © Zhang Jun/Xinhua/ZUMAPRESS.com crossed the “red line” and would be punished with Activists hold placards during a demonstration against the military strike on a U.S.-led military strike. Remember the transpar- Syria in front of the White House in Washington D.C., Aug. 29, 2013. ent why-we-must-strike-Syria performances played A war-weary nation responded quickly when the Syria threat surfaced. out in the media by Obama, Secretary of State John Kerry, Congress and assorted officials (in which 80 percent of citizens refused to believe)? The American public resoundingly said “no” to war. And, with wan- ing support, the President of the mightiest military in the world backed down. There were two other obstacles that stopped Obama’s march to war. First, America lost the back- ing of Britain, its always-faithful partner in war crimes, when its Parliament rejected a proposal for military action in Syria. Then, the Russians—who had challenged the flimsy evidence of the Syrian government’s use of chemical weapons against reb- els provided by U.S. intelligence —called Kerry on his offer to step back if Syria destroyed its chemical weapons arsenal. With Russian urging, Syria agreed, the UN set up a chemical weapons disposal program, and Russian President Putin was credited with de- fusing the volatile situation. As a result, President Obama and any number of your elected represen- Demonstrators protest Obama’s standing on the world stage was dramati- tatives acted like little boys and girls in a sandbox against the government shutdown in front of the cally diminished, while President Putin’s star rose, throwing sand in each other’s face. This ridiculous Capitol in Washington with Forbes ranking him as the most powerful per- drama played out simultaneously with the debt- Wednesday, Oct. 2, son in the world. ceiling debate. Congress warned that, if it could not 2013. And Congress is a House of Clowns. With that strike the deal it wanted, not only would the govern- Gabriella Demczuk/ The New York Times/Redux embarrassing debacle barely off the public radar, ment stay closed, the $16.7 trillion debt ceiling would Congress and the White House again dominated not be raised. Within 30 days, the Federal Govern- center stage by waging a long and costly battle that ment would have run out of money and defaulted on shut down the U.S. government for 16 days. The its debt. whole world witnessed a freak show of tight, closed- From the IMF and the World Bank to Deutsche minded and entitled men and women closing down Bank and JP Morgan Chase, bankers from around the government because they didn’t get their way. the world, America’s most ardent supporters, took to

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the airwaves to warn Washington of the havoc they Co-Chair, Deutsche Bank were wreaking and the cataclysmic consequences • “Please let’s not shoot ourselves in the foot. It’s a the already-wounded world economy would suffer if risk that shouldn’t be taken. You don’t want to know a deal between the White House and Congress was [what would happen]. It would ripple through the not reached before the October 17 deadline: world economy in a way that you couldn’t possibly • ”It’s the most serious thing that could happen. If understand.” Jamie Dimon, Chairman– it’s not addressed, if it’s not tackled, it will be very, Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase very damaging — not only for the U.S. If there is that • “This cannot happen, and this shall not happen. degree of disruption, that lack of certainty, that lack The consequences of this would be absolutely disas- of trust in the U.S. signature, it would mean massive trous.” Baudouin Prot, Chairman, BNP Paribas disruption the world over, and we would be at risk of As the debt ceiling D-Day got closer, and with tipping yet again into a recession.” fear of financial panic spreading, Fitch Ratings Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, International warned that the U.S. government’s AAA debt rating Monetary Fund was at risk if the ceiling was not raised in time to • “If this comes to pass it could be a disastrous event prevent a default. And China, the largest holder of for the developing world and that will, in turn, U.S. debt, with some $1.5 trillion in Treasury notes, greatly hurt the developed economies as well.” painfully grasping both the current and future Jim Yong Kim, President, The World Bank risks they were exposed to by having invested so • “It would be utterly catastrophic. This would be a many of its Yuan in one basket, issued this unprec- rapidly spreading fatal disease.” Anshu Jain, edented call to action:

hands off domestic affairs of others. about real, lasting peace. Furthermore, the authority of the United US fiscal failure warrants Moreover, instead of honoring its duties as a- Nations in handling global hotspot issues a de-Americanized world responsible leading power, a self-serving Wash has to be recognized. That means no one has ington has abused its superpower status and As U.S. politicians of both political parties the right to wage any form of military action introduced even more chaos into the world are still shuffling back and forth between the against others without a UN mandate. by shifting financial risks overseas, instigating White House and the Capitol Hill without Apart from that, the world’s financial system regional tensions amid territorial disputes, and striking a viable deal to bring normality to the also has to embrace some substantial reforms. fighting unwarranted wars under the cover of body politic they brag about, it is perhaps a The developing and emerging market - outright lies. good time for the befuddled world to start con economies need to have more say in major As a result, the world is still crawling its way sidering building a de-Americanized world. - international financial institutions including- out of an economic disaster thanks to the vora Emerging from the bloodshed of the Second the World Bank and the International Mon - cious Wall Street elites, while bombings and World War as the world’s most powerful na etary Fund, so that they could better reflect the killings have become virtually daily routines in tion, the United States has since then been transformations of the global economic and Iraq years after Washington claimed it has lib- trying to build a global empire by imposing political landscape. erated its people from tyrannical rule. a postwar world order, fueling recovery in What may also be included as a key part - Most recently, the cyclical stagnation in Europe, and encouraging regime-change in na of an effective reform is the introduction of a Washington for a viable bipartisan solution tions that it deems hardly Washington-friendly. new international reserve currency that is to be over a federal budget and an approval for rais- With its seemingly unrivaled economic and created to replace the dominant U.S. dollar, -so ing debt ceiling has again left many nations’ military might, the United States has declared that the international community could per tremendous dollar assets in jeopardy and the that it has vital national interests to protect in manently stay away from the spillover of the - international community highly agonized. nearly every corner of the globe, and been ha intensifying domestic political turmoil in the Such alarming days when the destinies of bituated to meddling in the business of other United States. others are in the hands of a hypocritical nation countries and regions far away from its shores. Of course, the purpose of promoting these have to be terminated, and a new world order Meanwhile, the U.S. government has gone changes is not to completely toss the United should be put in place, according to which all to all lengths to appear before the world as the States aside, which is also impossible. Rather, nations, big or small, poor or rich, can have one that claims the moral high ground, yet it is to encourage Washington to play a much their key interests respected and protected on covertly doing things that are as audacious as more constructive role in addressing global an equal footing. torturing prisoners of war, slaying civilians in affairs. To that end, several cornerstones should be drone attacks, and spying on world leaders. And among all options, it is suggested that laid to underpin a de-Americanized world. Under what is known as the Pax-Americana, the beltway politicians first begin with ending For starters, all nations need to hew to the we fail to see a world where the United States - the pernicious impasse. basic principles of the international law, in is helping to defuse violence and conflicts, re- Xinhua | Agencies, October 13, 2013 cluding respect for sovereignty, and keeping duce poor and displaced population, and bring

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At the eleventh hour, the debt ceiling deal was reached, temporarily. The White House and Con- gress agreed to fund the government until January The New Abnormal 15, 2014 and extend the debt cushion to February 7, Just when it seemed that an Obama 2012 campaign donor 2014. And, literally hours after the deal was done, it Washington was getting back to after his company gained the Obam- was quietly reported that U.S. debt had increased to “normal,” President Obama’s most acare website contract. And Michelle a record-breaking $328 billion, shattering the previ- cherished accomplishment, The Obama’s Princeton classmate, Toni ous high of $238 billion set two years ago. Then, two Affordable Health Care Act, exploded Townes-Whitley, is senior vice presi- weeks later, the final number jumped to $409 billion. on the launch pad. dent at CGI Federal. Taking to the Senate floor, Senate Majority Leader Love or hate it, in the history of Unequivocally, it was political Harry Reid (D-N) claimed that while “the country The United States of America, no contacts and not professional ca- came to the brink of disaster… this remarkable federal program crashed, burned pabilities that won CGI the no-bid agreement will … provide our economy with the sta- and bombed as badly as “Obam- contract to build the Obamacare bility it desperately needs” and “protect the long term acare.” From day one, the nearly enrollment website. The facts lie in health of our economy” while setting “the country billion-dollar website — which was the numbers. Unable to log on or on the path to fiscal stability.” outsourced to CGI Group, a Cana- call in to sign up for a plan, the site In fact, the temporary fix fixed nothing and did dian firm — was plagued by chronic managed to enroll a grand total of six system failure. Americans on its debut day. Six! This absolutely nothing to affect “the long term health of As reported by the Daily Caller, wasn’t anti-Obamacare rhetoric, Tea our economy.” George Schindler, the president of Party propaganda or conspiracy the- CGI Federal, CGI’s US division, was ory rants. It was a mainstream fact: TREND ANALYSIS The closing down of the government, the debt Obamacare got six enrollees impasse and the disastrous launch of Obamacare on Day 1: report goal of 7 million enrollments by March 1, are merely the latest episodes in the never-ending the exchanges need to enroll an average saga of the gross incompetence and ineptness of the Six. of 39,000 a day. That’s how many people signed up for During Wednesday’s congressional executive, legislative and bureaucratic branches of Obamacare on Day 1, according to CBS hearing, Health and Human Services America’s government. News, and no, that’s not a misprint. head Kathleen Sebelius was asked several How many failures does Washington have to The Obama administration has kept times for the number of enrollments. the number of enrollments close to the She explained that the data was unreli tally up before the general public has the courage to vest. It’s touted the number of visitors able and would not be available until - admit that they voted to put their lives in the hands to the troubled HealthCare.gov website mid-November. of a White House, Congress and federal government — 4.7 million — but hasn’t released the “We do not have any reliable data occupied by mentally challenged and morally cor- actual number of enrollments. around enrollment, which is why we But according to CBS News, notes haven’t given it to date,” she said. rupt men and women? from a “war room” meeting the day after The Obama administration has en What more will it take? As if the government shut- the Affordable Care Act launched on listed the services of computer engineers- down, the dangling debt ceiling and the Obamacare Oct. 1 say “six enrollments have occurred from tech companies such as Google debacle weren’t enough, could Americans have the so far.” By the end of Day 2, enrollments and Oracle to help fix the troubled totaled 248 nationwide. health care website, which has been courage to face up to the epic failure of the Afghan The White House predicted 500,000 plagued with issues from the start. As War? That “war of necessity,” the longest in Ameri- would sign up by the end of the month, Sebelius testified on Wednesday that the ca’s history, wasted American lives and added more according to a memo obtained by The site “has never crashed,” users trying to Associated Press, and that was consid access it found a message that read, “The mountains of debt to the nation’s treasury. ered a “modest start” for the market. - system is down at the moment. How about adding the Iraq War disaster—the war CBS notes that in order to meet the Yahoo News, 31 October 2013 that has ruined the lives of the tens of thousands of American families whose sons and daughters lost their lives, limbs and minds for a lying, losing cause — that George W. Bush, his cabinet and Congress Though the President ran your doctor, period. If you like your on a platform of government health care plan, you’ll be able to sold to America and the world? “Operation Iraqi transparency, the Administration keep your health care plan, period. Freedom,” waged “to disarm Iraq of weapons of mass continually refused to tell the public No one will take it away, no matter destruction, to end Saddam Hussein’s support for how many people had actually what” — turned out to be just an- terrorism, and to free the Iraqi people,” according signed up for the plan. other lie. to Joseph Stiglitz and Linda Bilmes of the Harvard Obama’s promise — “If you like Yes, a boldface lie, repeated at least Kennedy School of Government, will cost American your doctor, you will be able to keep 36 times. TJ taxpayers $3 trillion in out of pocket and already in-

FALL 2013 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 19 decline and fall

curred future costs, such as veterans’ care. Treasury Secretary, former Goldman Sachs CEO, All for what? To satisfy mentally deranged men and Henry Paulson, pulled off at the onset of the Panic women whose sick lies and penchant for slaughter of ‘08? The one he sold to the unconvinced public has, a decade later, left Iraq in economic shambles, with the lie that stealing their money and giving it ravaged by sectarian violence and trapped in a con- to the nation’s biggest banks, insurance, finance, and stant state of civil unrest? “Mission Accomplished!” assorted industries would save them from losing How about Libya, that lovely “time-limited, scope- their homes? How about President Obama’s grand limited kinetic action,” unilaterally declared by Nobel promise that his trillion-dollar 2009 economic bail- Peace Prize winner President Obama that was waged out scheme and rescue package would provide U.S. against yet another oil-rich sovereign nation? The workers with shovel-ready jobs? so-called “humanitarian mission” killed tens of thou- On virtually every level, America is a “has been.” It sands, destroyed the once prosperous Libyan nation, is sinking down. “Empire America is Fading Fast.” murdered its leader and widely destabilized the en- tire region? TIDE TURNER The War on Drugs, nationwide 24/7 federal/police Read their names and take a good look at the faces surveillance, NSA, TSA, Homeland Security, CIA, that the American public puts its trust in, and that FBI, militarized domestic police, a rotting infrastruc- the world has lost faith in. Look at the politicians ture, an “F”-grade education system, corruption, who they voted into office who make life and death collusion, high crimes and financial misdemean- decisions that affect virtually everyone’s health and ors plague America’s public and private institutions. welfare. What level of lies do voters live with inside Add up the failures. themselves that allows them to so easily relinquish Remember the “too big to fail” scheme that Bush’s the keys to their kingdom to proven thieves, murder-

TREND FORECAST Uncle Sam’s scam NATIONAL DEBT GROWS, recovery hope fades With the population of the United States at 316,968,354 and each already-weak economy as the cost of borrowing further stifles growth. citizen’s share of debt over $54,000, it is inconceivable that the na- This is clearly evidenced by job losses and slowdowns in the real estate tional debt will ever be paid back. I forecast that the debt burden will and retail sectors. continue to grow as the U.S. economy continues trending downward. Long term, the dollar will continue its decline as the world’s re- There is no recovery. Economic conditions continue to worsen, most serve currency. Unprecedented Federal Reserve cheap money policies new jobs are temporary and most full- or part-time new jobs don’t pay that pump endless trillions into the economy in an abortive effort to a living wage. Simultaneously, the nation’s labor force participation revive faltering growth, boost the GDP and bring down unemploy- rate keeps shrinking. ment will ultimately devalue The further the economy de- the currency. Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate clines — and with fewer people Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Therefore, I stand by my fore- participating in the workforce 68 cast of gold reaching $2,000 an

— the lower the tax revenues the 67 ounce. While there may be tem- government collects and the less porary pullbacks on gold prices, money it has to service the debt. 66 I estimate downside risk to be As interest rates rise, it will cost 65 between $100 to $150 per ounce governments, business and con- PERCENT from its current price. I forecast 64 sumers even more to service that the long-term upside potential debt. Thus, with interest rates 63 to be well beyond my $2,000 at historic lows and now slowly 62 mark. And, as I have repeatedly moving higher, there is addi- 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 said, “Gold is for my Golden Source: U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics; tional downward pressure on the 2013 research.stlouisfed.org Years.” TJ

20 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | FALL 2013 decline and fall

ers, liars and losers? the people of the Jewish faith that ended up in concen- Leaders we’ve lost faith While every nation has them, and the list would tration camps. There were gypsies, gays, or anyone that in: Mitch McConnell, Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, take a lifetime to complete, what human being with was deemed undesirable. It is time for each of US to read Harry Reid, Barack an ounce of self respect or a drop of dignity would the constitution and understand it. Obama, John Boehner. stoop so low as to keep looking up to politicians with “We need to know that we do have certain inalien- AP proven track records of creating laws, making deci- able rights. Once we understand the law of the land we sions and enforcing policies that have brought once need to stand together for what is right and lawful. If we proud America to this all-time low? follow the law of the land then we have the right to take What will it take to reverse the negative trends and back our country. If we follow the rules of criminals we create positive ones? Trends Journal subscriber David become the criminals and can only have what our bosses Petrin posted this comment in response to my No- give us. Doing what is right is never easy. There is a price vember 8th, 2013 Trends in the News video. (His first to pay. We have to take responsibility for ourselves, our sentence is in response to my reporting that Larry actions and our lives or, do we live under the rules and Summers called Edward Snowden a traitor.) thumbs of bullies?” “Snowden is a hero. We now know that we live in a police state. I have known this even before the Boston THE CHOICE IS YOURS Bombing. The people that are now in power have noth- Life isn’t easy. Everybody has problems — family, WHAT WILL IT TAKE? ing to do with a democratic republic as intended by our relationship, career, health and money problems. Positive change will occur forefathers. The people that hold positions in our Gov- And, just to make sure that getting through life be- when a critical mass finds: ernment, who should be honoring their commitment to comes a lot more difficult than it already is, a group • The courage to admit their constituents, have sold their allegiance to the na- of total strangers has taken it upon themselves to tell they are living a lie. tional and international bankers as well as to the highest you what to do and how to do it. • The courage to admit paying Lobbyists. Power-mad madmen and madwomen — politi- they’ve been conned by “The people in the various branches of government cians, bureaucrats, and assorted “officials” — take political con artists and have immersed themselves so deep in the cesspool of the public’s money to pay themselves for lucrative manipulated by a Presstitute media. Washington they no longer know what is dirty or clean, jobs they have created, and demand you follow their • The courage to never what is honest and honorable, or what is selfish and self orders. Control freaks and “higher authorities,” again submit to those serving. The only thing greater than their ego and pride whose vested interest is only in themselves and who of inferior intellect and is their greed. The people who supposedly represent U.S. are infected with a belief that they have the right to rampant immorality who are a cancer on this nation. How do we remove them steal your money in the name of taxes, send your hold high office, or to cower from their positions? Vote them out? That is like saying children to foreign lands to be killed and to slaughter before police and military power. we only have to remove some of the cancer. Anyone who countless millions in the name of war. They poison • The courage to admit goes into the cesspool with the best of intentions will suc- the planet in the name of progress. They destroy the that the politicians they cumb to the carcinoma. How do we free ourselves from economy in the name of policy. They are turning life supported and believed in this destructive disease? A disease that has become so vile on earth into a living hell. are narcissistic, psycho- it can go into any country and kill with impunity. Lat- A longtime reporter for The New York Times, Frank pathic frauds. terly rape, pillage and plunder. Bruni (who during his stint covering Capitol Hill, • The courage to look within themselves to see “We are like chickens in a coop with a fox. We are so George W. Bush’s presidential campaign, and the if they are living in truth or terrified that we are running around blind like the ‘Barn- White House, managed to uncover nothing) wrote living a lie. yard Boogey’ you played at the end of your program. If an article following his recent visit to Milan, “Italy Tell us what you think at we can be kept so terrified that we don’t dare to do any- Breaks Your Heart.” In it he states: “Italy is what hap- comments@ thing to provoke the fox, we will be killed for sure. This pens when a country knows full well what its prob- trendsjournal.com. kind of terror worked for Hitler and the SS. It wasn’t just lems are but can’t summon the discipline and will to

FALL 2013 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 21 decline and fall

Death of the dollar ZUMApress.com Paul Craig Roberts in which they no longer use the U.S. dollar to settle CONTRIBUTING EDITOR their trade imbalances among themselves. Considering the rate at which U.S. public debt has The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South been increasing and dollars printed to finance it, the Africa) have reached agreement to settle their trade dollar’s exchange value has survived longer than ex- with one another in their own currencies, thus aban- pected. doning the use of the dollar. Bilateral agreements The U.S. dollar began to crumble in 2011 when have also been reached between China and Japan gold hit $1,900 per ounce. But the Federal Reserve and between China and Australia. discovered that it or its dependent bullion banks What this means is that the demand for dollars (Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase) could sell gold in currency markets will fall, and this will affect the short and drive down the price of gold in the futures dollar’s exchange value, especially when the Federal market, where the price is set. The banks found that Reserve is creating new dollars at a high rate. they could make money doing this. The short selling, Supply and demand. The supply is increasing, and sometimes massive, drove down the price of gold so the demand is falling. Therefore, the price, or ex- much that stop-loss orders added to the selling and change value of the dollar, must fall. then margin calls on leveraged positions would cause Washington can avoid the crisis for awhile with more selling. swap agreements with its allies. A swap agreement The banks could then buy up the ETF gold shares is when Washington swaps currencies at the existing below the price at which they shorted gold, convert exchange rates with the Bank of England, the Euro- their holdings into gold bullion and make further pean Central Bank, and the Japanese central bank. profits selling the bullion to Asia at the high premi- The Fed gives those central banks dollars, and uses ums that prevail there. the British pounds, euros and yen that it is given in As long as this scheme works, the movement into exchange to buy up the excess supply of dollars that gold can be confined to Asia. are a threat to the dollar’s exchange value in the cur- However, other changes are under way that imply rency markets. a limited life to the U.S. dollar as world reserve cur- This arrangement can continue until the Bank of rency. The Federal Reserve has been printing a huge England and the ECB decide that fingers in the dike amount of dollars since 2008 to buy bonds in order cannot prevent the collapse, or until the swap ar- to keep bond prices high and interest rates low. This rangements are overwhelmed by large Asian sales of is the way the Fed decided to support the balance dollars. sheets of the “banks too big to fail.” Bond prices When the world decides that U.S. economic policy move together in the same direction. The higher the has killed the dollar, the world will bail out of the price of U.S. Treasuries, the higher the price of the dollar. As the dollar loses exchange value, domestic debt-related derivatives on the banks’ balance sheets. inflation will rise in the import-dependent US, and Foreign and domestic holders of dollars and dol- the dollar price of gold and silver will increase beyond lar denominated financial instruments have been the reach of impoverished Americans. As the Chinese watching the dilution of their dollar holdings by the currency is coming online as a freely tradable cur- Fed printing $1,000 billion per year. rency, the currency of China’s large economy will be Foreigners are also resentful and tired of the fi- bid up in dollar value as holders exit the dollar. nancial bullying from the reserve currency govern- As U.S. power is based on being the reserve cur- ment. They are moving to create new arrangements rency, it will be the end of superpower America. TJ

22 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | FALL 2013 decline and fall fix them. It’s what happens Many people believe in when political dysfunction heaven and hell. For me, hell grinds on and on and good is taking that last breath of governance becomes a mi- Protest life knowing that you lied rage, a myth, a joke.” By Ella Wheeler Wilcox to yourself; you were not It’s “a joke” to believe that FROM HER BOOK, POEMS OF PROBLEMS, 1914 the person you claimed to anything but “political dys- be or could have been. Or, function” exists in Italy or To sin by silence, when we should protest, as Ella Wheeler Wilcox, the for that matter any nation Makes cowards out of men. The human race American author and poet ruled by political parties. As Has climbed on protest. Had no voice been raised eloquently put it: the world witnesses daily “As we think, act, and doses of Washington’s “po- Against injustice, ignorance, and lust, live here today, we build the litical dysfunction,” how The inquisition yet would serve the law, structures of our homes in can Bruni not include his spirit realms after we leave And guillotines decide our least disputes. home country in his details earth, and we build karma of a crumbling society, The few who dare, must speak and speak again for future lives, thousands of rather than meekly asking, To right the wrongs of many. Speech, thank God, years to come, on this earth “Is that where America is or other planets. Life will as- heading?” No vested power in this great day and land sume new dignity, and labor No! That’s not “where Can gag or throttle. Press and voice may cry new interest for us, when we America is heading”! That’s Loud disapproval of existing ills; come to the knowledge that where America is! death is but a continuation Like Italians, a majority May criticise oppression and condemn of life and labor, in higher of Americans feel hope- The lawlessness of wealth-protecting laws planes.” less and fear the future. That let the children and childbearers toil Will you stand motionless Like Italy’s, America’s knowing that something infrastructure is rotting To purchase ease for idle millionaires. needs to be done? Do you away, its politicians are lack the courage and will to “cartoonish” and “buffoon- Therefore I do protest against the boast do anything? “The hottest ish,” and America’s bedrock places in hell are reserved for demons — “excessive Of independence in this mighty land. those who, in times of moral regulations and a rococo Call no chain strong, which holds one rusted link. crisis, maintain their neu- bureaucracy that stifle trality,” wrote Dante. Call no land free, that holds one fettered slave. enterprise” — “a closed Life is short. And I’m not system of favoritism” that Until the manacled slim wrists of babes going to hell. I’m doing my breeds “corruption.” Are loosed to toss in childish sport and glee, best to create beauty and live No, Mr. Bruni, it is not in truth. Am I perfect? Not “discipline” that will magi- Until the mother bears no burden, save by a long shot. But I don’t cally fix the problems. It The precious one beneath her heart, until start wars or boast that “I’m will take courage. And mo- God’s soil is rescued from the clutch of greed really good at killing people,” rality, which is anathema to like Obama said. I’m not both the media world and And given back to labor, let no man party to high crimes and political systems. Call this the land of freedom. misdemeanors as are the As Ralph Waldo Emerson “too big to fail” banks and wrote: “Every actual state the Wall Street Gang. is corrupt. Good men must The true “Hope” and not obey the laws too well.” Indeed, in this time of growing crisis, “Change You Can Believe In” is to have the courage to believe in “We the People” should resist following orders that destroy the yourself. Be inventive, find the unique gifts that lie inside you. human spirit and darken the soul. When brought to life, those gifts will change your life for the better What can you do? There is no single “do” to do. There is no simple and, in turn, the lives of those around you. formula that will restore the best of what has been lost or find what When a critical mass of human spirit rises to higher levels, the is needed to create a promising future. But there is a solution. YOU! state rises with it. TJ FALL 2013 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 23 GLOBALNOMICS Youth without work: An epic global crisis

Out of work, in debt, with no prospects 30 to 10 to 20 to on the horizon, teens and 20-somethings of 39% 19% 29% the world are mad as hell. If you are under 25 years old and live just about anywhere on the Argentina Algeria Portugal Australia Belgium Slovakia planet, chances are good you are unemployed. Brazil Bulgaria The rate of youth unemployment is Chile China staggering, a crisis of epic proportions. The Czech Republic Finland year will end with fading opportunity for Denmark France meaningful employment for the young. Estonia Hungary With time on their hands and hormones Luxembourg Indonesia raging, and knowing that if they don’t fight Malta Iran Morocco Ireland “against the machine” they’ll be run over by Netherlands Latvia it, the young will be taking to the streets. Not New Zealand Lithuania only will the Revolution be televised, it will Philippines Poland be blogged, YouTubed, Facebooked, instant- Russia Romania messaged and tweeted. Sri Lanka Slovenia Turkey Sweden United States United Kingdom Venezuela

Top: AP: Bottom: ZUMAPRESS.com Young people taking to the streets about unemploy- ment in India (above) and South Korea (below).

Africa’s youth unemployment rates are difficult to track. Young people between the ages of 15 and 25 make up almost half of the work force. The continent has the youngest population in the world. Many are severely under-educated and without skills. While youth unemployment rates vary within the continent, the World Bank records it at 60 percent.

Base map iStockPhoto. Unemployment figures for ages 15-24 available for work via Eurostat, BLS, OECD, World Bank, International Labour Organization, United Nations Development Programme

24 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | FALL 2013 globalnomics Youth without work: An epic global crisis

50 to Over 40 to 60% 49% 59%

Portugal Cyprus Croatia Somalia, Slovakia Italy Greece as well as South Africa most of Africa Spain Tunisia

Africa’s youth unemployment rates are difficult to track. Young people between the ages of 15 and 25 make up almost half of the work force. The continent has the youngest population in the world. Many are severely under-educated and without skills. While youth unemployment rates vary within the continent, the World Bank records it at 60 percent.

Base map iStockPhoto. Unemployment figures for ages 15-24 available for work via Eurostat, BLS, OECD, World Bank, International Labour Organization, United Nations Development Programme

FALL 2013 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 25 IMPERIALISM 2.0

President Truman, at his desk in the Oval Office on August 24, 1949, officially No need for NATO launching the Cold War by signing the document that Stop spreading war implemented the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. and keep the money at home Abbie Rowe via Wikipedia By Paul Craig Roberts CONTRIBUTING EDITOR AND FORMER ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF THE UNITED STATES TREASURY NATO has gone on too long. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization was established on April 4, 1949, as a defensive alliance whose purpose was to defend Western Europe in the event of a Soviet invasion. As NATO’s first secretary general put it, NATO was formed in order to keep the Russians out of Western Europe and the Americans in. Instead of disbanding NATO when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Washington dramati- cally expanded NATO. In violation of the Reagan-Gorbachev agreements, the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush regimes added constituent parts of the former Soviet empire to NATO — Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania. France, taken out of NATO by General de Gaulle, rejoined in April 2009, 18 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, along with Croatia and Albania. Currently, the Obama regime is working to incorporate into NATO two former Soviet Republics — Ukraine and Georgia. Efforts are currently under way to expand this structure to Japan. On April 15, 2013, NATO

26 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | FALL 2013 imperialism 2.0

Secretary General Rasmussen and Japanese Prime Minister Abe signed the Joint Political Declaration. The Joint Political Declaration acknowledges that Japan and NATO face the same security challenges and have been brought together by shared values. Washington, it appears, is using Japan to bring the NATO threat to China. In addition, the Bush regime initiated the U.S. Africa Command, which began operations in 2007. This new command’s mission is to “protect and defend the national security interests of the United States by strengthening the defense capabilities of African states. . . in order to deter and defeat trans­ national threats.” The military-security complex has grown fabu- lously wealthy by identifying threats to America in every corner of the earth and putting in place hun- dreds of U.S. military bases. Above: A West Berliner stands at the foot of the The “war on terror” has served as the cover for Berlin Wall while talking organizing much of the world into America’s Empire to an East Berliner in Army. The main purpose of the imperial army is to this 1962 photo. When the Berlin Wall fell establish U.S. hegemony over the world. American in 1989, communism hegemony is the ideology of the neoconservatives collapsed with it. who are still angry that President Reagan ended the NATO via KRT cold war with diplomacy instead of winning it with a Left: Russian leader military victory. Reagan repeatedly declared that his Joseph Stalin (center goal was to end the cold war, not to win it. I know. I in white jacket) sitting was there. I was part of it. with Leon Trotsky (right with glasses) and a large When the Soviet Union collapsed, the neoconser- group of friends, some- vatives renewed their push for American supremacy. insurgency in Greece in 1948, President Truman where in Russia. Stalin Security against a vague stateless “terrorist threat” and his advisors, saw the Greek uprising as part of a moved away from the idea of world revolu- became the new source of money for the military- Soviet plan for world domination, just as later U.S. tion when he defeated security complex. The U.S. and Europe are strug- administrations saw the same thing in Vietnam. Trotsky, its advocate. gling with faltering economies, unable to maintain Stalin had buried any prospect of world revolu- AP social infrastructure, health and pensions systems tion when he defeated its advocate, Leon Trotsky, or to stem the flow of new public debt, sacrificing all the founder and commander of the Red Army in to the funding of a massive imperial army to defend the Russian civil war, who defined the communist against a few stateless terrorists. purpose as international “permanent revolution.” What does it mean to exercise world hegemony Stalin declared, “revolution in one country.” But the while your society comes apart at the seams? The myth of the Soviet Union pursuing world revolu- internal collapse of Western society is a far greater tion persisted from the Truman administration right threat than a few stateless terrorists. It makes no through President Reagan’s first press conference on sense for Washington to build up military com- January 29, 1981. mands when Washington cannot pay Medicare bills The cultivation of this myth was very beneficial for or Veterans Benefits. the profits and power of the U.S. military/security complex. When the Soviet collapse disposed of “the THE COLD WAR BEGAN WITH NATO threat,” the military/security complex came up with The formation of NATO was one of the first acts of a new threat — Muslim terrorism — and has used the Cold War. There was no evidence that the Soviet this threat to expand the military/security budget Union intended to invade Western Europe. Despite and the infringement of civil liberty beyond what Stalin’s refusal to support the indigenous communist was achieved by hyping the Soviet threat. Evidently,

FALL 2013 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 27 imperialism 2.0

Muslims with box cutters are more frightening to NATO FOMENTS MILITARISM AND HOT WAR Americans than Soviets with nuclear weapons. The Russian government understands that the To the Soviets, who had no military designs on expansion of NATO into former Warsaw Pact coun- Western Europe, the formation of NATO looked like tries and also into former Soviet Republics that were Anglo-American encirclement of the Soviet Union. part of the Soviet Union constitutes encirclement. Stalin’s response was to form the Warsaw Pact with This bold and reckless encirclement of Russia by Eastern Europe in 1955 — six years after the forma- Washington and its NATO puppet states is under- tion of NATO. The Warsaw Pact was immediately lined by Washington’s establishment of missile bases misrepresented by Western cold warriors as evidence on former Warsaw Pact territory. The purpose of of Soviet military designs on Europe. these missile bases is to neutralize or to degrade Rus- In those days U.S. news magazines were full of sia’s nuclear deterrent. No one believes Washington’s maps of Warsaw Pact divisions arrayed against claim that the anti-ballistic missile bases on Russia’s NATO divisions. The troop disparity so greatly fa- frontier are directed at Iran. Washington’s encircle- vored the Soviet side that President Eisenhower de- ment of Russia is reckless and dangerous. spaired of the financial cost of matching the Soviets Present-day Russia is not the Soviet Union, but in troops and conventional weapons. Deciding in Russia possesses sufficient nuclear weapons and favor of more bang for the buck, Eisenhower shifted delivery systems to destroy Western Europe and the U.S. military doctrine to reliance on nuclear weap- U.S. What purpose is being served by Washington’s ons. Republicans, then as now, were fixated on bud- aggressive use of NATO against Russia? get deficits, and Eisenhower found budget deficits to Is the purpose worth the risk of nuclear war? Why be greater threats than nuclear war. has Washington raised tensions to the point that It is doubtful that NATO ever served any purpose the Deputy Defense Minister of Russia, Anatoly An- commensurate with the risk. Regardless, NATO tonov, felt compelled to state publicly on July 2, 2013, lost its purpose 22 years ago when the Soviet Union that no country will be able to attack Russia’s strate- collapsed. NATO exists today because Washington gic nuclear forces with impunity? stood NATO on its head and reconstituted it as an Why have policy makers in Washington, wallowing offensive military alliance serving Washington’s wars in their hubris, caused the Russians to perceive such for world hegemony. a high level of threat? The answer is that Washing-

A military parade of during festivities on the occasion of the handing over of new barracks to Dutch NATO troops in 1967. To the Soviets, who had no military designs on Western Europe, the formation of NATO looked like Anglo- American encirclement of the Soviet Union. Photo by Jörg Hinniger/ picture-alliance/dpa/AP Images

28 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | FALL 2013 imperialism 2.0 ton’s commitment to the U.S. military/security com- plex places profits above life. As far as the military/ security complex is concerned, Americans cannot have enough enemies. Protecting America’s security is a profitable business. Washington used NATO for the first time as an offensive weapon to break apart Yugoslavia during 1993-95. NATO air strikes and bombings frustrated the Yugoslavian government’s attempt to prevent the breakup of the country into its constituent parts. In 1999 Washington again used NATO to strip from Serbia its historic homeland of Kosovo and deliver it into Muslim hands. In 2001, Washington pretended that the 9/11 attack was the work of Afghanistan and forced NATO to in- voke Article 5. This article says that an attack on one member is an attack on all, requiring every NATO country to come to Washington’s aid. By forcing NATO to invoke Article 5, Washington provided cover for its war of aggression against Afghanistan, now in its twelfth year. It is extraordinary that Con- gress has allowed the executive branch to squander make Georgia a treaty protectorate of Washington The charred remains trillions of dollars on wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and NATO, which is Washington’s way of sticking its of one of Colonel Muammar Gadaffi’s when Washington is dependent on the Federal Re- finger into Putin’s eye and telling Russia that it will loyalist troops after serve to finance its annual budget deficits by printing have to acquiesce in Georgia’s next act of aggression being incinerated money and is considering curtailing Social Security, or risk general war with the West. in a NATO air strike. As a result of the Medicare, and veterans benefits in order to reduce No clearer statement could be made that Wash- intervention, on Oct. the federal budget deficit. ington is reckless and willing to risk war for prestige 20, 2011, Gadaffi was In 2011 the Obama regime used NATO to over- reasons alone. But for Washington’s NATO puppets, captured, beaten and throw the government of Libya. Until blocked by the stakes are extremely high — every capital city tortured, and fatally shot. Russia and the British Parliament, the Obama regime of Europe and the very existence of the European Photo by Paul Conroy / tried to get NATO involved in the Syrian conflict that population. Rex Features via AP Images Washington initiated by having Saudi Arabia and the It is NATO that enables Washington to be reckless oil emirates arm the Islamists who wish to overthrow and aggressive. Without the cover NATO provides the secular Assad government. and the bases NATO makes available, Washington In 2008, egged on by Washington, the former would have to transform itself from an aggressive Soviet Republic of Georgia attacked Russian peace- warmongering bully into a good neighbor. Euro- keeping troops and the Russian population of South peans have resisted Georgia’s NATO membership Ossetia. In reassuring the Georgian government, precisely for the reasons outlined above, but Wash- Washington miscalculated the Russian response. The ington is persistent and usually prevails with bribes, Russian military made short work of the U.S.- and threats and political pressure. Israeli-trained and -armed Georgian army and could To the extent that the U.S. media reports on any easily have reincorporated Georgia back into Russia, of these dangerous developments, it is usually along where it was for 200 years and where many believe the lines of a partisan sports announcer cheering it belongs. However, with the point made, Russia that his team is winning. Washington’s aggressive use withdrew its victorious forces. of NATO against Russia’s security can easily lead to Thirsting for revenge, which seems to be the main miscalculation. motivation of Washington throughout its history, Washington is using NATO to incorporate the Washington is trying to convince NATO to extend military forces of the 27 NATO countries into Wash- membership to Georgia, a country located in Asia ington’s Empire Army. For example, Spanish navy between the Black and Caspian Seas far removed ships are armed with U.S. weapons systems, such as from the North Atlantic. NATO membership would AEGIS, and are integrated into U.S. forces under the FALL 2013 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 29 Rather than NATO rubric of “interoperability between NATO member run their medical services are spending money they shrinking its footprint nations.” In other words, European governments are do not have in order to fight for American hegemony following the fall of communism, cranes losing control over their own armed forces which in distant areas of the world where Europeans have loom above the new are increasingly unable to operate outside the U.S.- no national interests. massive expansion of dominated NATO structure. The Poles, Hungarians, and Czechs revolted NATO headquarters in Brussels on Wednesday Following their defeat in World War II, both Ger- against their Soviet overlords. Washington preempts Nov. 13, 2013. Having many and Japan were prohibited from having any revolt by paying off the European governments. By ceased to become a offensive military capability. Now both countries are enabling Washington, NATO is setting the course for defensive force against being incorporated into the forces supporting Wash- World War III. Poland’s decision to accept U.S. mis- Soviet invasion of Europe, and having ington’s wars for world hegemony. sile bases on its border with Russia might be a fatal been extended into step on the path to World War III. former constituent NATO IS EXPENSIVE Today the U.S. faces no hostile military power. Al- parts of the former NATO is expensive as well as an enabler of U.S. Soviet Empire, NATO though Russia and China have substantial military is now an organization aggression. The military budgets of NATO countries capability and the governments of both countries are for American world account for 70 percent of world expenditures on described as “authoritarian” by Western propagan- hegemony. military forces. Because of disputed sovereignty, the dists, neither government represents a communist AP Photo/Virginia Mayo, Pool number of countries in the world cannot be precisely ideology hostile to the West. The governments of stated, but the boundaries are 190 to 206 separate both countries are striving to avoid conflict with the countries. U.S. and to improve the wellbeing of citizens. If we take the lower number, then 15 percent of the The only dangerous ideology in the world today is countries in the world — the NATO members — ac- Washington’s ideology of neoconservatism. This ide- count for 70 percent of world military expenditures. ology proclaims the U.S. to be the “indispensable na- In contrast, 85 percent of the countries in the tion,” with the right and responsibility to impose its world, including China, India, Iran, and Russia, ac- economic and political system on the world. Claes count for 30 percent of military expenditures. Ryn calls neoconservatism “the New Jacobinism,” the Obviously, Washington has honed NATO into a French Revolution all over again, only this time the tool for military aggression. target is not merely Europe but the entire world. Europe cannot afford to fight for Washington in Neoconservatism is an aggressive ideology and fo- the Middle East, Africa and Asia. Europe lacks the ments self-righteousness and militarism. The aggres- resources to deal with its sovereign debt problems siveness of the ideology is reflected in the Pentagon’s and is having to resort to severe austerity imposed on June 19, 2013, report to Congress outlining U.S. nu- European populations. Unemployment and poverty clear war strategy. The report shows that more than are rising in Europe. Yet, European countries that two decades after the collapse of the “Soviet threat” cannot afford to pay their police and teachers and Washington is still preparing for waging nuclear war.

30 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | FALL 2013 imperialism 2.0

The report attempts to lull Russia by stating that “it present level of hostility does not prevent Chechen is not our intent to negate Russia’s strategic nuclear terrorists from cooperating with Washington in deterrent, or to destabilize the strategic military efforts to destabilize the Russian North Caucasus relationship with Russia.” However, the report back- region. tracks on the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review that set Washington’s use of Muslim extremists against the the goal of limiting the purpose of U.S. nuclear weap- Russian state dates to the Soviet invasion of Afghani- ons to deterrence of nuclear attack. The June 2013 stan. When Gorbachev became General Secretary, he report says: “we cannot adopt such a policy today.” informed Washington that he was withdrawing So- Washington’s excuse for retaining the right to viet troops from Afghanistan. In their 2012 book, The initiate a nuclear attack is the threat of “nuclear ter- Untold History of the United States, Oliver Stone and rorism” by “al Qaeda and their extremist allies.” Al Peter Kuznick report that instead of facilitating the Qaeda is not a state or a country. The report does not end of the conflict, Washington worked to tie down say how a preemptive U.S. nuclear attack can be used Soviet forces in Afghanistan as long as possible by against al Qaeda. Indeed, the extremism of al Qaeda supplying Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri is the product of Washington’s imperialism. If Wash- with money and weapons and by blocking UN at- ington would leave Muslims alone, the extremism tempts to broker a settlement. would be internalized between Sunni and Shi’ites The neoconservatives are bitter that the Cold War and between secular rulers and Islamists. ended without a U.S. military triumph over Russia. If the U.S. would renounce its interventionist It is a triumph that the dangerous warmongers still policies, the terrorist threat would abate. Even the hope to achieve. TJ

Anthony Freda Illustration

FALL 2013 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 31 BACK TO THE FUTURE

Nothing new about social media...

Some 17,000 years ago, By Ric Dragon humans posted pictures CONTRIBUTING WRITER of aurochs, horses, and deer on their walls — We’ve always had social media. Sitting around a campfire telling stories is fundamentally social, in the caves of Lascaux. with the air around our heads being the medium carrying human voices. Denizens of 16th-century Prof saxx via Wikipedia Florence and Rome were known to tie notes to sculptures, expressing their approval or criticism — creating what were, perhaps, some of the earliest bulletin boards. Even the paintings in the Lascaux caves appear to have been the product of gatherings, not the efforts of lone individuals. The Lascaux paintings, in fact, provide insight into information flows into the Facebook database. the worldview, beliefs and priorities of their creators. In marketing, smart companies are eschewing Today’s highly evolved social media provides a similar traditional norms of advertising, and embracing range of information, painting a picture of the inter- passion or purpose-centered communication plans. ests, behavior and connections of individual users. New approaches are based on storytelling, partici- With each keystroke, users of social media add to patory media, and transmedia, and less about self- some of the largest databases ever created. The owner promotion. In the era of social media, audiences or of that data will be able to predict consumer behav- customers aren’t interested in anything that can be ior in ways that have heretofore been unimaginable. perceived as salesmanship, thus companies are hav- Furthermore, over the past year, both Facebook and ing to scramble to become creators of original and Google have unrolled systems capable of capturing valuable content: brands are becoming publishers. data from applications outside of their own plat- While the U.S. has been behind in the adoption forms. For instance, when a Facebook user plays a of mobile and smartphone technology, it’s quickly song on Spotify or watches a movie on Netflix, that catching up. Wearable devices, such as Google Glass

32 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | FALL 2013 back to the future

UIFACES.com ...except that your personal data now belongs to everyone and smart watches, are only beginning to become net users at around 70 percent. The so-called Millen- commonplace, and are predicted to proliferate as nials and the generation following them, however, the cost of MEMS sensors continues to decrease. were born into these technologies, and their usage Google’s emphasis on the development of wearable rate is closer to 90 percent. Increased deployment of devices and social media is prescient: they’re creating smartphones and wearable devices will bring those an always-connected device recording every motion numbers up even higher. We are approaching a time feeding a database of human interactions. when less than ten percent of the population will not While the battle over social data between Google be using social media in some form. TJ and Facebook may seem like the final battle scene in Lord of the Rings, they are not the only players. LinkedIn, the oldest of the major social platforms, TRENDPOST has been dramatically overhauling itself, creating a Social media and the Internet technologies that have enabled them constitute social eco-system that ties in with the way people the largest disruptions to business communications since Gutenberg’s invention conduct business. In younger populations, platforms of the press. These technologies are bringing with them new approaches to the like Tumblr, recently acquired by Yahoo!, and Insta- creation of value, and transforming the relationships between the creators of gram are more popular than Facebook. goods and services and those who consume them. The adoption rate of social media has recently slowed, with overall U.S. use of social media by inter-

FALL 2013 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 33 HEALTHY BUSINESS

Healthy fast food is now a fully-developed trend, but what qualifies as “healthy” varies. Healthy fast food The familiar fast food chains have made some of their offerings healthier, but still rely brings fat profits on processed ingredi- ents and preparation, while an increasing number of new players A trend that’s picking up steam are building their brands on whole and organic By Lisa Ramirez foods. CONTRIBUTING WRITER MCT t’s been nearly 15 years since Jared Fogle famously lost a couple hundred pounds on a diet of Subway sandwiches, introducing us all to the improbable notion that fast food could be good for you. Yet there he was, 6’2’’ and a trim 200 pounds. It seemed almost preposterous that an I American fast food eatery had helped Jared regain his Jared Fogle holding a health. But his story was irresistible: His weight had pair of his fat pants, soared to more than 400 pounds — he blamed junk from before he lost 245 food, soda, drive-thru burgers and all-you-can eat pounds eating Subway sandwiches for lunch. Chinese buffets — but a regimen of Subway sand- Credit Fogle — and wiches and brisk walks transformed his physique. the marketing team at Turns out a well-chosen Subway sandwich — lots Subway — for bringing of veggies, a lean meat, skip the high-fat mayonnaise- attention to the benefits of packing a sub with based dressings — is a culinary saint when compared vegetables and dress- to, say, a Whopper or a Big Mac. And sure, you can ing it with whole grain still indulge in a meaty, cheesy, sauce-laden Subway bread. But the processed deli meats are hardly sandwich. But as it happens, virtuous fast food is also health food. good for profits. Subway saw its profits climb to $11.5 AP billion in 2011 from around $3 billion in 1998, accord-

34 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | FALL 2013 healthy business

ing to Nation’s Restaurant News, and Fogle is credited were 16 Chipotles, all of them in Colorado. Now At the Corner Bakery with one-third to one-half of Subway’s growth in the there are 1,500 across the U.S., Canada, the U.K., freshly scrambled eggs are accompanied by past 15 years. Germany and elsewhere. Diners order custom-made applewood smoked And the rest of the industry took notice. burritos, salads and burrito bowls at the counter bacon, tomatoes, green In recent years, meal options for diners seeking a and options include white or brown rice, vegetar- onions and cheddar cheese, topped with healthy or, at least, a less-injurious fast-food meal ian beans and grilled vegetables, along with pork, avocado. The Euro- have improved, fueled by consumer demand for tast- chicken, beef, salsas, cheese and guacamole. All are pean influence in Corner ier, healthier and, increasingly, sustainable and hu- served under a banner of Chipotle’s “Food with Bakery dishes is proving manely raised food. This demand has driven a trend Integrity” mission statement and its efforts to serve successful. that began more than a decade ago with low-fat naturally raised meats, hormone-free dairy, and or- Corner Bakery salad dressings alongside the creamy ranch, yogurt ganic produce whenever possible. By 2012, the com- parfaits on the menu board with ice cream sundaes, pany had a net income of $278 million and employed and bottled water side-by-side with soda. But it has more than 37,000 people. expanded to include a new crop of eateries where Meanwhile, traditional fast food behemoth Mc- “healthy” is an integral part of the brand. Donald’s has diversified its menu, adding items like Restaurants such as Panera Bread, with its soups grilled chicken Snack Wraps, blueberry pomegranate and sandwiches on artisan breads; up-and-comer smoothies, oatmeal, and apple slices to its mix of ba- Veggie Grill, with its plant-based menu and restau- con-draped burgers, shakes and fried chicken sand- rants in California, Oregon and Washington; and wiches. And Burger King, home of the 1,020-calorie the self-dubbed “health casual” Freshii, now in eight Triple Whopper, also offers a MorningStar Veggie countries including the U.S., have carved a foothold Burger and just recently unveiled Satisfries, a lower in the fast food landscape, capturing loyal customers fat, lower calorie take on this fast-food standby. and, at times, creating near-cult followings. That these global granddaddies of fast food are And then there’s Chipotle Mexican Grill, the cur- catering to a demand for healthier items is an indica- rent darling amongst fast-food foodies, vegetarians, tor that what may have started as a trend on the U.S. and those who seek out “ethical” food. In 1993, there coasts has taken hold across the mainstream.

Options for diners seeking a healthy fast food meal have increased and improved, fueled by consumer demand for tastier, healthier and, increasingly, sustainable and humanely raised food.

FALL 2013 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 35 healthy business

The incentive for fast-food outlets like McDonald’s and “quick casual” restaurants like Panera to offer healthier food is twofold: To capture diners who are VeggieGrill’s plant- based dishes are at seeking healthier, higher-quality fare, and to combat the very heart of the the negative public perception that fast food corpo- up-and-coming com- rations are at least partially responsible for the global pany’s business model: No meat, no dairy, no obesity epidemic. processed anything. It Also driving the trend is increasing public aware- is based mainly in the ness and interest in where food comes from, how it’s Northwest. prepared, and its nutritional content, says Brendan VeggieGrill Walsh, Dean of Culinary Arts at the Culinary In- stitute of America (CIA) of Hyde Park, N.Y., one of the most influential culinary colleges in the world. People are getting closer to their food, cooking more and thinking more about what they put in their bod- ies and while the change is slow in coming, he says, it’s gathering momentum as the detrimental results of poor diet become impossible to ignore. Worldwide, overweight and obesity are the fifth leading risk of death, according to the World Health Organization, and about 2.8 million adults die each year as a result. In addition, 44 percent of the diabe- The still-rising Freshii company, now in eight tes burden, 23 percent of ischemic heart disease and countries, has a loyal, between 7 and 41 percent of certain cancer burdens almost cult-like, follow- are attributable to overweight and obesity. ing. Whole and organic In the U.S., that translates to about a third of adults, foods drive its business model. says the Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta. Freshii “As people become knowledgeable about the im- portance of the food they eat, of the healing proper- ties of food, that eating the right things make you feel better, that will drive demand,” Walsh says. He sees it in the chefs and other professionals the CIA trains — Chipotle Mexican Grill founder Steve Ells attended the CIA — and he points to a significant cause for Chipotle founder Steve optimism; childhood obesity rates in particular are Ells is a trained chef. The chain’s focus, like trending downward. According to the CDC, from other healthy fast food 2003 through 2010, childhood obesity decreased operations, is allowing from 15.21 percent to 14.94 percent. the customer to mix and match dishes. Overall, fast food is a $660 billion-per-year industry, Photo by Jamie Kripke/ employing 1 in 10 American workers, according to Chipotle Forbes. And it’s an industry besieged with challenges. The customer base has come to expect very, very low prices — dollar menus brought diners in, especially during the recent recession, and the expectation of a 99-cent hamburger or order of chicken nuggets has proved a difficult habit to break. Restaurants such as Jason’s Deli has an Wendy’s have struggled to maintain profits. extensive salad bar But while the diner seeking a quick, inexpensive with organic options, and satisfying meal remains the mainstay for many in addition to whole wheat wraps and other fast-food outlets and price is a leading consideration healthy dishes. when consumers decide where to eat, a recent study Jason’s Deli by the Natural Marketing Institute found that 17 per-

36 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | FALL 2013 healthy business

Anthony Freda “Real” healthy food joints have the edge While the healthy fast food trend is now fully powered, chicken have helped Panera carve out a substantial niche. there is a difference between familiar chains, which add  Freshii. Salads, quinoa, spicy lemongrass soup, brown rice healthier choices that still rely on processed preparation and and tofu. Fast-casual setting allows customers to mix and ingredients, and the upstarts, which emphasize organic and match organic and whole foods to meals on the go. whole foods. The latter players in this market are built on the  Chipotle Mexican Grill. Like Subway, customers control concept of providing healthy whole foods, while the cheap exactly what goes into their meal and choices include brown food giants are looking for easy means to widen their market rice, grilled vegetables, and hormone-free meats. footprint. The real potential is with the growing generation of  Jason’s Deli. Over 200 locations in the U.S. Known for its healthy food producers who are just a few years old and only emphasis on on organic food: creative salads, healthy potato now gaining momentum. Here’s a sampling: dishes, whole wheat wraps.  Panera Bread. Whole grain breads, half portions, fresh  Corner Bakery. Healthy breakfasts, pastas, oven-roasted whole apples as a side and efforts to serve naturally raised chicken and European-influenced healthy dishes. cent of consumers are committed to eating healthier with or without turkey sausage, to a menu that in- foods and are willing to pay more for them. cludes the far more decadent Glazed Donut Break- At the same time, 14 percent want to eat better fast Sandwich, a small and sugar-sticky tower of fried but remain “price sensitive,” and another 21 percent egg and bacon served on a donut. aspire to make healthier choices. Together, that “ As people change, the big corporations will fol- translates to 52 percent of restaurant customers with low,” Walsh says. “As we create the niche, it becomes a strong-to-moderate desire for a healthier fast-food important, and people shift the corporations. They meal, and is why, for example, Dunkin’ Donuts has see the shift, they see the research, and to stay rel- added the Egg White Veggie Flatbread sandwich, evant they have to change.” TJ

FALL 2013 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 37 DRAWING POINTS Illustration by Anthony Freda

38 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | FALL 2013 FALL 2013 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 39 GAMES ON!

ZUMAPRESS.com Minecraft is an unusual modern game because images are low-res and pixelated, as seen on this mask of a Minecraft character. The game allows users to explore and manipulate an environment. It has no real end goal other than to survive, but in multi-player mode you can collaborate, social network or fight with each other. Because it is an open-source game, anyone can add components or modify the game itself. This means an advertiser could create a tool or function that goes viral, which might be a marketing bonanza. We’ve only just begun to play By Zeke West & Ryan Lennox CONTRIBUTING WRITERS Since the days of pre-antiquity, people of every culture and society have crafted objects and devices for the sole purpose of entertainment. From Senet, the ancient Egyptian board game, to dice, cards and on to Wii U, ingenuity and creativity have been poured into ways to escape the rigors of daily life. Video games, a contemporary beneficiary of our energies, are now played by more than half a billion people and drive a multi-billion dollar industry. It wasn’t until the early 1970s that computer tech- derived predominantly from arcades. The large size nology and interfacing capabilities developed to the of arcade game cabinets let developers devote a point that commercial production of video games great deal of hardware to a single game, something for the masses became viable. The first generation of the small home consoles could not match. Then, as video games rolled out in the early ’70s via arcades personal computers became popular, game creators and newly developed home consoles, which inter- recognized them as prime platforms for video games, faced with a TV. Pong, the first entry from Atari, was a platform allowing both developers and player un- the first commercial hit, spurring the development of paralleled control over the physical components of video arcades and, later, the sales of personal gaming the game as well as the programs themselves. While systems at the dawn of what would become today’s many of the first computer games were remakes of $66 billion industry. arcade and console games, they caught on quickly. Up until the early ’80s, video gaming revenue As new home consoles and more polished, studio-

40 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | FALL 2013 games on! produced computer games prospered, arcades Pong — Atari’s first began to falter. This period of new industry growth commercial hit — now witnessed the early development of 3D games, seems crude. The pace of gaming innovation “multiplayer” online gaming and, with the advent and realism is growing of miniaturized LCD screen technology, mobile exponentially, driving gaming systems. Through the development of many both hardware and software development. different games tasking the player to accomplish Gaming will continue to any number of different goals, be it managing a have an impact on our virtual empire, digital mass destruction or solving economy, behavior and puzzles, discrete genres of video games were becom- marketing. ing established. This helped focus the market and Wikipedia direct production of games for specific groups and markets. The high-resolution Today, there are over 25 discrete genres of video screens of smartphones game, ranging from ultra-violent shooters to com- make games such as Drag Racing possible. plex strategy games and realistic flight simulators. Accelerometers, Among the more productive genres is the educa- gyroscopes and tional game, designed to teach practical skills and compasses in the concepts. While these have been developed mainly phones provide realistic movement and motion for young children and preschoolers, there appears without requiring to be virtually limitless room to expand upon the accessories. field. Creative Mobile An example of pushing the scope of educational games is crowdedfiction.com, geared toward engag- Angry Birds, another smartphone game, ing a teenage population notoriously uninterested in became so popular that literature. By combining reading with computer in- it spawned licensed teractivity and a cooperative experience, players and characters for greeting cards, stuffed animals, their friends work through a story, making decisions and key chains. on events that form the outcome of the tale. Gaming is expanding As video games grew in popularity during the to businesses beyond game companies. 1990s, the first government-backed regulatory Wikipedia body to judge and rate content, The Entertainment Software Rating Board (ESRB) came into existence in 1994. Early, gory 3D games were the first to draw major public attention and call video game violence Enigmo (far left) and Bejeweled (left) are into question. smartphone games In the U.S. there have not been any lasting, strin- appealing to very gent restrictions placed on the production or sale different audiences. of video games. Attention tends to be drawn to the Gaming is no longer just for kids ­— its more violent examples of the genre when public inci- popularity is growing in dent occurs and a game is cited as the motivation or all age segments, from inspiration for the act. Many game-related bills have grandparents to soccer moms to pre-schoolers. hit the House and Senate floors, but nothing that Pangea Software seriously affects the industry has yet been passed. While the more violent 3D games provided new opportunities for political grandstanding and raised hotly debated questions of morality, the produc- tion of more realistic looking games also rallied the market for hardware. The processing power required to handle the complexities of these games speeded the development of graphics processors, called GPUs. Today, the manufacture and sale of GPUs constitute FALL 2013 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 41 games on!

a multibillion dollar industry. GPUs have come to have applications that stretch well outside the gaming arena, finding a place in state-of-the-art laboratory environments, film production and even the mining of bitcoin (see “The bitcoin bubble” on page 8). Another market created by the maturing gam- ing industry was for “peripherals,” the controllers and controller modifications that allow a user to be maximally immersed in the experience. Peripherals include the steering wheel and pedals used with driv- ing games and the sophisticated Joysticks employing force feedback, a technology used to provide sensory cues. The development of new, more sensitive pe- ripherals is ongoing. In 2006, the Nintendo Wii was World of Warcraft released, featuring a motion sensitive controller that Just a few of the millions of players that inhabit the virtual fantasy world of translates a player’s motion into action in the virtual World of Warcraft. The release of these mega-titles in gaming is a major event, environment. The Wii has been followed by a num- driven by millions of dollars of advertising. ber of other motion-activated or sensing controllers for a variety of the main gaming consoles (Sony’s Play Station 3 and Microsoft’s XBOX 360) as well as for computer systems.

THE TRENDS With new technologies being applied to gaming just as soon as they are viable, there are seemingly endless opportunities to keep the gaming experience fresh and compelling. As long as computers exist and are utilized for work, they will also be used for play. How the gaming industry grows will be limited only by how far we are willing to push the boundaries of the many ways humans interact with machines. • Social Gaming — Social networks are huge, Activision incorporating more than a billion people. The pos- Call of Duty Modern Warfare 3 is a first-person shooter game where players face off in death matches with an assortment of weapons. Some critics say the sibility of interacting with so many people in a virtual proliferation of realistic violence in video games encourages violence in real life. setting redefines the idea of Massively Multiplayer Online Games. Currently, the number of players in social network games runs in the tens of millions, and is expected to jump to hundreds of millions over the next five years. While the viability of advertis- ing over social media platforms has been called into question, the gaming market does tend to hold its audience captive, as do cinema and TV, and may hold vast potential for creative advertisers to reach an up- and-coming market. • Mobile Gaming — The popularity of ever more powerful handhelds (smartphones and tab- lets) has led to a plethora of games being developed for these platforms. While generally not as complex as their computer or console cousins, they allow NCSoft the casual gamer to pick them up and play as they The Asura, one of the 5 different playable races of Guild Wars 2, a massively multiplayer fantasy role-playing game. The game’s peak concurrency has ap- like, wherever they are. Another facet of these proached a half-million players engaged at one time. games is that they have a different set of tools at 42 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | FALL 2013 games on! their disposal. Most new smartphones are extreme- ly motion sensitive, have full touch screens and the ability to interact with sounds in a way that can be utilized to build creative environments and virtual activities for the user. • Streaming Games — Games are becoming more complex, requiring powerful computing power and large amounts of virtual storage space. The stream- ing of games is meant to remove some of the borders between the gamer and their games. Streaming vastly reduces the requirements placed on an individual’s system in that all of the processing happens off-site. Streaming also allows cross-platform playing. Many games are designed to run only on a specific system, console or computer for example. Streaming could open a game up to any platform with an internet tainment closer to what seemed the stuff of science OnLive streaming connection. Given the advances in and availability fiction only a decade ago. services are helping turn games into social of faster internet speeds, there is massive market • Immersive Systems — There are many immer- networks with tens or potential in streamed games. sive systems that project the view screen around the hundreds of thousands • Physical Gaming — Omni-directional tread- user and incorporate highly interactive flight-simu- of players participating in games at the same lating hardware. These systems are used for training mills, such as Virtuix’s Omni (www.virtuix.com), are time. everyone from soldiers to commercial airline pilots. one of the latest entries in the peripheral market OnLive that, complete with video headgear, appears to be a Another fascinating use of such tools is in construct- step in the effort to take the gamer into the game on ing an interactive rendering of historic sites. Still, an affordable platform. This next generation of gam- there is little on the market that offers the casual or ing peripherals allows more physical interaction with ordinary gamer the option to be fully engulfed by the the gaming environment and draws digital enter- game... not yet, anyway. TJ

Virtuix Omni While wearing a helmet and shoes to track his movement on the Virtuix Omni, a gamer turns his head and the view screen responds accordingly. The character moves at the pace the gamer sets. As games become more realistic and physical, how will the combination of addictiveness, violence and social networking change the way we socialize, market, behave and participate in fantasy worlds?

FALL 2013 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 43 ANOTHER VIEW Evictions everywhere unded by insanely wealthy investment and hedge fund groups, sanctioned by Fgovernments and, in some cases, fueled by taxpayer dollars, evictions are forcing families out of their homes not only because they can’t pay the mortgage, but to make room for development projects. It is a worldwide trend characterized by a common theme: The wealthy take charge while the impoverished sink further into despair. It is a harsh, reflection of the disparity between the haves and have-nots. The most high-profile example recently is driven by a wave of bank foreclosures in Spain, but similar dramas are playing out around the world. In Brazil, thousands will be driven from their living quarters to make room for sports stadiums. In the United States, the elderly are pushed out of gentrifying areas. In China, modernization means homes are bulldozed. These photos, all from the past month, show the new reality of a growing underclass.

SPAIN: A locksmith (above) is escorted by national police as he arrives at an eviction site in Madrid. The family couldn’t pay the rent on their apartment after losing their jobs. Also in Madrid, Maria Isabel Rodriguez Romero (at right) cries as police arrive to evict her family. The family spent some time living in an alleyway, and then moved in with a friend. AP Photos/Andres Kudacki

44 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | FALL 2013 another view

All around the world, regular and working class Evictions everywhere people are being removed from their homes

FALL 2013 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 45 BRAZIL: A community in Cuiaba (above), bordering the construction site around the Arena Pantanal stadium (in background at left), has seen many poor people lose their homes. Residents claim con- struction work has extended beyond agreed-upon boundaries.

Meanwhile, protesters (at right) confront a police officer after being evicted from the slum Estaiadinha, where they lived. Brazil’s government has recently started to “clean out” the slums near the central areas of Sao Paulo to prepare for World Cup 2014. Photo by Buda Mendes/Getty Images (top); © Victor Moriyama/ZUMA Wire/ZUMAPRESS.com (right)

46 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | FALL 2013 another view

UNITED STATES: Mary Elizabeth Phillips, a retired accountant, is fighting evic- tion from the rent-controlled apartment in San Francisco where she has lived for almost half a century. As the epicenter of the U.S. technology industry has moved north from Silicon Valley to San Francisco, income disparities have wid- ened sharply, housing prices have soared, and orange construction cranes dot the skyline, disrupting housing options for longtime residents. Jason Henry/The New York Times/Redux

SRI LANKA: An elderly woman in Columbo, whose family faces eviction to make way for a proposed casino resort and apartment complex, looks out from her home at Java Lane in the Beira Lake district. An Australian businessman is in negotiations to build a $AUD400 million casino there, amidst fierce opposition from local groups. Photo by Buddhika Weerasinghe/Getty Images

CHINA: He Zhihua was killed by a steamroller while resisting the taking of his home to make room for a highway being built in Chengdu last year. Now his photo serves as a protest against the government’s manipulation of housing and the economy. Over the past five years, at least 39 farmers in China have set themselves on fire to battle the taking of their land, a reminder of how the country’s new urbanization push is at times a violent struggle of ordinary citizens with a powerful state. Sim Chi Yin/The New York Times

FALL 2013 | THE TRENDS JOURNAL 47 SCORECARD Hits and misses on some Trends 2000 forecasts

The health and nutrition By Trends Research Institute Staff trend has evolved into a multitude of related Here’s a scorecard on some of the bold predictions made more than a decade ago in Gerald and robust industries. From organic foods, Celente’s groundbreaking book, Trends 2000 (Warner Books, 1997), and how those forecasts are to healthy fast food, evolving today. In this Trending feature, we hold Celente accountable. to fitness and exercise programs in your living room, the health trend PREDICTION: The health/fitness/nutrition trend will go into an continues to grow as boomers age and live accelerated growth stage driven by an aging baby-boom population. longer than any other generation. Result: Back then Whole Foods was not a national health/fitness/nutrition trend. And today, those who Whole Foods Market name. Jenny Craig and Weight Watchers were all want to stay out of nursing homes, remain indepen- people knew about losing weight. Nutrition was some- dent and be able to boogie before the lights go out, will thing that only “health nuts” cared about. The fitness lead a new wave of Whole Health Healing life style. biz has now become a staple of everyday life. It was Status: The trend is firmly established and will grow the Baby Boomers 20 years ago who were leading the at a moderate rate.

48 THE TRENDS JOURNAL | FALL 2013 scorecard

PREDICTION: The energy revolution will be the single biggest investment opportunity for the twenty-first century. Result: Yes! But it has not happened yet. The greatest low-energy nuclear reactions (LENR), magnet motors opportunity is not in fossil fuels. It will be more and “Hydrino” (“little hydrogen” power) — but to date, advanced than wind, solar, geothermal or biofuels. they have not produced promised results. We have Status: There have been a number of truly revolution- been keeping Trends Journal subscribers on top of ary new energy developments — including cold fusion, developments in alternative energy.

PREDICTION: Home improvement and remodeling will be a strong and growing sector. Result: We forecast that trend seven years before the people built McMansions? You don’t hear that term great home equity loan boom that boosted the home anymore. The best years of the building boom and the improvement/remodeling business to unforeseen home improvement days are over, but there will be highs. Retail businesses and contractors that supplied moderate growth as homeowners fix up rather than product and services also benefited. move up. And as for the McMansions? Some will Status: Do you remember once upon a time when become the new boarding houses of the 21st century.

PREDICTION: Austerity budgets coinciding with economic fallback and burgeoning interactive technologies will disrupt all levels of the teaching profession. But on-trend educators will find new professional opportunities opening up on the interactive home schooling network. Result: In Trends 2000, Gerald Celente invented the Stanford University announced it will collaborate with term “Interactive-U” to describe the yet-to-be-born edX, the nonprofit online learning enterprise founded online education business. He was years ahead of his by Harvard and MIT. Stanford will provide a range of time. Remember, when he wrote the book in 1995, platforms for faculty to choose from in hosting their the Internet was rudimentary. While the U.S. is way coursework. The effort will include partnerships with behind the on-line education curve compared to many Coursera, Venture Lab and other providers. other nations, which are graduating tens of thousands But opposition is growing among college faculty, of students yearly, it is beginning to catch up. who claim that students miss benefits from in-class Status: Within the past few years, open source learn- learning, while also fearing that online course avail- ing platforms that provide free online tools for insti- ability will threaten their jobs. Regardless of efforts to tutions have been rapidly expanding. Most recently, reverse the trend, the future in learning is online.

PREDICTION: The successful businesses of the Global Age will practice a compassionate capitalism. Money will be made by products and services that satisfy a world with changed values. Result: This turned out to be wishful thinking. The Dutch multinational, Unilever. Clinton/Gore sold out New Age trend was in full swing. Ben & Jerry’s ice the nation’s jobs with NAFTA, deregulated the com- cream was all the rage for their social responsibility munications and banking industries, and started wars. and environmental awareness. Clinton/Gore were Any time Clinton got in trouble at home he’d launch recently elected. There was a belief that with Baby cruise missiles against “terrorists” in foreign lands. Boomers in the White House, more advanced thinking And the Omega Institute in Rhinebeck, N.Y., a bas- would replace the old-guard mentality. tion of the New Age movement, recently featured Bill Status: Ben and Jerry’s was bought by the Anglo- Clinton as a speaker with great fanfare. TJ

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