Trends 2012 the 2Nd American Revolution

Vol. XVII, No. 4 Autumn Issue • 2009

The History of The Future: Trends 2012 The 2nd American Revolution

Episode V Autumn 2012, the “Greatest De- troops killed in Afghanistan.” “US drone attack kills pression” has spread worldwide. Billions are unem- 60 civilians in Pakistan.” “Car bomb blast kills 47 ployed, homeless and desperate. Countries bank- in Iraq.” rupt, trade pacts broken, tariffs rise, borders close. In the eleven years since President George W. Protectionist, nationalist and anti-globalization Bush promised to bring Osama bin Laden back movements have moved out of the margins and “dead or alive,” there have been more Elvis sight- into the mainstream. Immigrants brought in dur- ings than traces of bin Laden. ing boom times — blamed for bringing down wages, The US military asks for more troops, more stealing jobs and rising crime — are being rounded money and more time. The President and Congress up and deported. plunder the treasury and sacrifice more lives all un- Despite differences between the 1930’s Great der the pretext of keeping America Al Qaeda-free. Depression and today’s “Greatest Depression,” un- The Israeli-Palestinian peace process remains settling similarities conjure up memories of pre- permanently and violently stalemated. World War II. From the United Kingdom to Russia, Iran, having forged a business/military alliance war drums eerily beat. with China and Russia, is now a Nuclear Club mem- China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore — all ber, and the world is forced to deal with it. countries that ramped up production to meet insa- Oil-rich nations, having sunk trillions and lost tiable business and consumer demands of the prior trillions in high stakes investments, are trying to decade — fight for survival. cope with internal rebellion and decreased demand Japan, Taiwan and South Korea, long indus- for their only cash crop. trialized and export driven, blame China for their India’s miracle economy has run out of mir- mounting trade imbalances, internal strife and acle, pushing it back into Third World conditions. Southeast Asian instability. Incessant flare-ups with Pakistan carry nuclear im- Mexico, once the US resort/retirement retreat, plications. is as dangerous as the Congo, and its government — Canada, Australia and New Zealand are not in what’s left of it — is equally ruthless. great shape, but compared to most other nations, Across much of South America, depression, they seem like paradise. coups and wars prevail; few nations have been Africa is Africa. Not much has changed. Cor- spared. ruption, poverty and conflict prevail. Despots and In Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan it’s the same dictators vie for control. Newly emerging colonial news, different year, different body count: “Five US powers outmaneuver old colonial powers to com- mandeer rich lodes of natural resources. Trendpost: Although SHCs (Safe Haven Countries) A few countries flourish, some even in the was not part of the lexicon in 2009, the concept was middle of regional hotspots. Smart citizenry, good on the minds of the very rich and the very tuned-in. leadership, a little luck, energy and resource self- Aware of the mounting fury of the millions who sufficient — they saw the trends coming and made had lost jobs, homes and futures, and the many other proactive decisions. millions who blamed their government for taking their taxes to cover the trillions in financial sector losses, the smart money had already moved to safety or had escape plans in place. If it meant leaving mansions and businesses behind, that was a small price to pay for saving their necks. The on-trend, even with limited resources, had Editor and Publisher plans in place to escape before things turned ugly Gerald Celente and it was too late to leave. Executive Editor Businesses specializing in safe haven relocation John Anthony West services — opening foreign accounts, arranging for Contributing Editors dual citizenship and/or multi-nation passports — will Alex Silberman be in high demand. Dr. Mitchell Skolnick It was a worldwide trend. From Israel to Ar- Eldad Benary gentina, Russia to the USA, nations big and small, Special Research Reports each with their own problems, were unraveling. By Sharon Johnston 2012, with borders tightly sealed and money flows Assistant Editor restricted, choice havens were no longer admitting Laura Martin foreigners, but there would still be other options for Subscriptions Manager the determined. Erin Pawski

Illustrations Trendpost: “Survivalism,” a trend building in 2009, Michael Maslin will be bigger business in 2012. There would be es- Design cape routes, safe harbors and satisfying futures for Norgaard Advertising & Design those with the nerve and wit to take their lives into All rights reserved. For information on permission to reproduce or trans- late material from the Trends Journal®, please write or call The Trends their own hands. Research Institute. The Trends Journal® (ISSN 1065-2094) is published Survival was more than guns and freeze-dried quarterly by the Trends Research Institute. ©2009. Globalnomic, the Trends Journal®, Trend Alert, Trends in the News and The Voice of The Millennium food. It also meant getting prepared emotionally, are registered trademarks of The Trends Research Institute. spiritually and physically … “Holistic Survival” The Trends Research Institute P.O. Box 3476, Kingston, NY 12402 was a profession waiting for professionals to prac- www.trendsresearch.com tice and teach. WHO’S WATCHING The Reality Show Back in autumn of 2009, sabers rattled, but there was no fear of a YOUR FUTURE? world on the edge. The future was looking brighter. Services by Gerald Celente and In fact, a recession-free future was predicted on the The Trends Research Institute: cover of The Economist: “After the storm: How to make the best of the recovery.” n Personalized Consulting Google it. Do the research. It was official: the n Custom Keynote Presentations Great Recession was over and the forecast for re- n Trend Tracking Seminars covery was nearly unanimous. Nobel prize-winning n Commissioned Research economists, Wall Street sages and Washington’s www.trendsresearch.com or call 845.331.3500 leading politicians who, with few exceptions, didn’t

2 The Trends Journal • Autumn 2009 see recession coming, now, with few exceptions, trades; White Shoe lingo dreamt up to cover up proclaimed it over. That’s how it was being played frauds, inside jobs, rip-offs, Madoffs and scams. out in the media. It was like a pulp fiction crime novel with a On Main Street they were playing a very differ- plot at once transcendentally cliched, corny and ent tune. For the limo driver, carpenter, merchant, transparent … and yet it was the perfect crime. The restaurateur, accountant, college grad … there was White Shoe Boys of the Wall Street Mob had taken no recovery. Business was either way off or going over Washington. It was The Great Bank Robbery. under. Low pay, lousy jobs, losing jobs, can’t find a Except it wasn’t the bank that was being robbed. It job … that was the reality. was the banks doing the robbing. But in the make-believe media world, the taste, Politicians, bought off by the mob, did as they the smell and the degradation of Main Street reality were told. By government edict, the wealth of the was covered over with glitz and pontification. nation was extorted from those who had the least In the Trends Journal®, where we report from and bestowed upon those who had the most and the real world, we called “recovery” a mirage, a wanted more. fraud, a barker’s spiel … and the problems the na- Thousand page bills were rushed into print tion faced were far bigger than just the economy. and rammed through Congress before lawmak- ers had a chance to read them. Bailouts, buyouts, THE MOB rescue plans, stimulus packages, cap and trade The greatest crime wave ever to hit America was … by whatever name, it was the greatest heist in sweeping across the nation. More lawless than Wild American history. Committed in broad daylight West desperados, better organized than gangland and with everyone watching, almost no one saw it Chicago, a ruthless mob of financial bandits and for what it was: “crime.” But Washington called it political wise guys had taken control of the United “legislation.” States. By order of the President and Congress it was Not a week went by without Wall Street and decreed that all living Americans, and their de- Washington committing crimes. If perpetrated by scendants for generations, would be responsible individuals it would have been called robbery, ex- for the bad bets made by banks, businesses and tortion, embezzlement, felony and fraud, and the financial institutions deemed “too big to fail.” criminals would have been indicted, hauled into court and brought to justice. FEAR FACTOR Had the Wall Street “families” been named There was no time to debate what might happen if Celente, Caruso, Mondavi, Bellini, Rossini and Bu- the “too big to fail” actually failed: immediate ac- itoni, they would have been called a financial Ma- tion had to be taken to avert catastrophe. fia, and the billions in buyouts and bailouts would It was the familiar fear tactic — one that had have been called extortion. Day after day, month worked in the past and would work again — an eco- after month, it would have been a headline grab- nomic version of the Bush/Cheney argument for bing, non-stop story. Movies, TV features, HBO se- the Iraq War. The people were told that Saddam ries, Congressional investigations, special prosecu- Hussein had weapons of mass destruction and ties tors and commissions … Mafia madness would have to Al Qaeda. If he wasn’t stopped, the next cloud been milked by Hollywood for every penny of its would be a mushroom cloud. entertainment potential. The pretense was different but the game was But because it was the “White Shoe Boys” who the same: instill fear in a panicked public and they ran the Wall Street Mob, fronted the Federal Re- will follow their leader, regardless of how shallow serve and operated the US Treasury, their criminal the reasoning or how big the lie. activities were couched in polite but impenetrable Just as the nation was hurried to war before White Shoe language: credit default swaps, auction it could be proven that Saddam Hussein had no rate securities, special investment vehicles, collat- weapons of mass destruction or Al Qaeda ties, so eralized debt obligations, brokered deposits, flash too there was no time to debate what might hap-

The Trends Journal • Autumn 2009 3 pen if the “too big to fail” failed. typically absolve themselves of any direct moral responsibility for both the outcome and for the role Trendpost: Trend Trackers beware! Regardless of they played in allowing it to happen. country, governments will take whatever measures necessary to retain control when in danger of losing it. Trendpost: Realists understood the game, knew Yet majorities, in times of crisis, tamely follow how it was played, and were anticipating draconian their leaders, believing that the actions taken are in measures. Seizing or freezing assets, bank holidays, the common interest. confiscating gold (as the US did in 1933), restricting In 2009, few remembered how Bill Clinton Internet freedom, closing borders both in and out, launched missile strikes, bombed no-fly zones and summary arrests without cause … all were possible. waged wars against sovereign countries to divert the Those on-trend were thinking ahead and preparing nation’s attention from his own sexual escapades. At for the worst. If the worst didn’t happen, nothing the time, the public was public-relationed into be- was lost. If the worst happened, those who did noth- lieving that the military strikes were in the national ing risked losing everything. interest. One way or another, facts get twisted to promote By 2012, geopolitical threats, economic Armaged- agendas: “Kosovo’s Plight Exaggerated,” read the 1 dons, crime waves, drug wars, terrorism, riots, tax July 1999 USA Today headline. “Many of the figures revolts, civil disobedience … fake flag and real at- used by the Clinton Administration and NATO to tacks … there would be ample opportunities for describe the wartime plight of Albanians in Kosovo leaders to play the fear card and for the fearful to now appear greatly exaggerated ….” follow. Similarly, memories had also faded of how un- A growing minority was learning to think for it- popular George W. Bush was in the autumn of the self, was wise to the game and unwilling to take the first year of his presidency. Then came 9/11. America bait. Political leaders unable to convince the skepti- went to war. First Afghanistan and then Iraq. cal to follow would do what they had to do, regard- Flags waved, yellow ribbons were tied to trees less of cost or consequences, to maintain control. and plastered on cars, and the nation rallied around their Commander in Chief. “I’ll bring him (Osama Fears ‘R’ Us The economic fear card, dealt bin Laden) back dead or alive!” promised the former by the Bush Administration in 2008, and trumped weekend warrior of the National Guard. by President Obama in 2009, was that if the “too big In 2009, President Obama would follow the to fail” failed, the credit markets would freeze, the tradition: playing upon fears to rally the public and entire financial system would collapse, and life as ensure obedience under the guise that all measures we know it would never be the same again. taken were for the common good. But would the system collapse? Would civiliza- Commandeering the media, he transformed his tion as we know it cease to exist? It was a 14 tril- presidency into the “Obama Show” … an almost un- lion dollar question (the amount earmarked for the interrupted sequence of town hall face-offs, factory various rescue packages) that was answered with a floor meetings, stadium rallies, TV guest appear- counterfeit two-bit analogy. ances, “exclusive” interviews, addresses to Congress, First floated by President-elect Obama in De- and late night comedy spots. cember 2008, it was later parroted by Federal Re- By autumn, declining ratings were reflecting serve Chairman Ben Bernanke in June 2009. over-saturation coverage, but nonetheless, loyal Asked why taxpayers should be forced to foot Obamatons still held out “Hope” and waited for the the bill to bail out banks, brokerages, insurance “Change We Can Believe In.” companies and other institutions that had made While the national pastime of “follow the lead- bad bets, Mr. Obama responded, “You know, if my er” is always the path of least resistance, it comes at neighbor’s house is on fire, even if they were smok- a high cost … financial ruin and/or war and death. ing in the bedroom or leaving the stove on, right In either case, when disaster strikes, the followers now my main incentive is to put out that fire so that

4 The Trends Journal • Autumn 2009 it doesn’t spread to my house.” now in the hands of one their boys — was not run- When asked the same question seven months ning the show? later, Ben Bernanke resorted to the same illegiti- mate analogy: “If you have a neighbor, who smokes WIZARDS OF ODDS in bed. And he’s a risk to everybody. If suppose he So, in a rare fit of near-unanimity, economists and sets fire to his house, and you might say to your- politicians decreed that the “too big to fail” must self, ‘I’m not gonna call the fire department. Let his be saved. Upon what divine authority was such cer- house burn down. It’s fine with me.’ But what if your tainty based? house is made of wood? And it’s right next door to The last spasm of agreement, way back in 2007, his house? What if the whole town is made of wood? saw experts mocking the prospect of a bursting real Well, I think we’d all agree that the right thing to estate bubble, and the Wall Street/Washington ma- do is put out that fire first, and then say, ‘What pun- jority predicting only modest increases in unem- ishment is appropriate? How should we change the ployment. Virtually all discounted even the remote fire code? What needs to be done to make sure this possibility of impending recession — much less the doesn’t happen in the future? How can we fire proof Great Recession — as it would soon be known: “Ad- our houses?’ That’s where we are now. We have a visors Tell Worried Investors To Take Stock ‘Hiccup’ fire going on.” In Stride,” ran the 27 July 2007 New York Times Comparing a neighbor’s house on fire to spend- headline. ing trillions to bail out failed financial institutions is In 2008, the Federal Reserve employed 200 PhD a totally fraudulent, puerile and transparent analogy economists and spent some $400 million on analysis, … one that happened to be accepted without ques- research, data gathering and studies on market struction by the entire media and foisted upon the public ture. What dissenter dared contradict the forecasts as the logic of the wise. and counsel provided by this corps of experts, who “Smoking in bed” and “the house on fire” bore failed to see the Great Recession coming … and who no relationship to the reality. More to the point, what didn’t see it even after it had arrived? if your neighbor is a compulsive gambler who lost his Yet suddenly, there they were again – all of fortune in Vegas and is now losing his house? Should them – politicians, economists, Fed officials, finan- the “whole town” be taxed for generations to come cial analysts and the bevy of media money honeys so that your neighbor is able to retain possession of speaking with one voice, lecturing the masses: total his McMansion? And for his gross failures, should he financial catastrophe awaited them … individually, be further rewarded with millions in “executive com- collectively, nationally and globally … should the pensation” so he can travel first class back to Vegas to “too big to fail” be allowed to fail. continue his wasteful, profligate ways? Why should their forecasts be trusted this time? What if some of the “too big to fail” failed? What if Publisher’s Note: The public has been trained to all of them failed? Embodied in those questions lay believe that the Federal Reserve operates indepen- the future of America: what would become of it and dently of Washington. But when the President and what it would stand for. Fed Chairman use the identical, inane “if-your- Looking back from 2012, the arrogance and neighbor-is-smoking-in-bed” analogy, it should pomposity of that questionable certainty is as in- make the alert citizen question any claim of inde- structive as it is farcical. Suppose some of the “too pendence. big to fail” failed and no one bailed them out? The Federal Reserve was Washington and On September 15, 2008, one of them did fail. Washington was the Federal Reserve. Before being The “venerable,” “prestigious” investment bank appointed by President Obama as Secretary of the (White Shoe terminology for a brokerage firm that US Treasury, Timothy Geithner was President of gambles) Lehman Brothers went bankrupt because the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Who could it could no longer cover its bad gambling debts. It imagine that the Fed — with complete control of was the biggest bankruptcy in American history. the money presses and the keys to the treasury The equity markets plunged and reared, but the

The Trends Journal • Autumn 2009 5 food didn’t stop growing, the sun still rose and set And then, in one fell swoop, free market capi- and the markets eventually stabilized. Was this an talism was gutted. At a stroke of the Washington indication that the fears of a total market meltdown pen, Democracy, now being ruled by the even fewer, were overblown? had become an Oligarchy. Suppose all of them failed and no one bailed them out? In this worst case scenario, The Trends Save The System Contrary to what was be- Research Institute would concur with most other ing preached by the all-knowing but unseeing seers, analysts. Panic would have ensued and a Depres- letting the “too big to fails” go under or shrink back sion would have begun. Most likely the credit mar- to size was just the medicine the nation needed to kets would have frozen, the world equity markets begin to regain its strength and vitality. The “too big would have crashed, businesses would have gone to fail” had become “too big to manage.” bankrupt, unemployment would soar, GDPs would The bigger-is-better “economy of scale” doc- have plummeted. trine — effected through mergers, acquisitions However, there was never a fear of all of the and consolidations — in theory brings down costs, “too big to fail” failing. It was a ruse and a fear streamlines operations and benefits everyone. In tactic; the White Shoe Boys crying wolf to extort practice, however, economy-of-scale breaks down funds from the American people to pay for their when an organization becomes so big, so bureau- compulsive speculation. cratic and so unwieldy that its infrastructure cannot support it. OLIGOPOLIES But back in 2009, the only future “officially” Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Morgan imaginable, or contemplated, was more of the same. Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, and The entire focus was to restore — as quickly as pos- many other “too big to fails” insisted (once they sible and by whatever means necessary — the same had their bailout billions in their pockets) they system that had failed so catastrophically. were never in jeopardy after all. In fact, flush with “Fellow economists … are heaping praise on $25 billion of rescue money, JP Morgan told its ex- Mr. Bernanke for his bold actions and steady hand ecutives to use the cash to buy out weaker firms, in pulling the economy out of its worst crisis since although the funds were supposedly earmarked to the 1930’s,” glowed The New York Times, in the free up the credit lines. midst of the brief remission of the Great Recession By using taxpayer funds to buy out the com- (20 August 2009). These economists also cited cre- petition, the giants were creating a financial oli- ating “staggering amounts of money out of thin air” gopoly in defiance of both the spirit of the law as Mr. Bernanke’s most important accomplishment. and the doctrine of free market capitalism — that What his fellow economists called “bold ac- self correcting, survival-of-the-fittest system in tion,” The Trends Research Institute called “the de- which all businesses, regardless of size, rise and struction of free market capitalism.” And what his fall upon their merits. In the free market doctrine fellow economists lauded as “Mr. Bernanke’s most there is no provision for government intervention, important accomplishment,” the Institute labeled in which losses are socialized (taking taxpayer “financial insanity.” money to rescue “too big to fail” companies) and The economy was not “pulled out of its worst gains privatized (awarding executives billions in crisis” — only the “too big to fail” were pulled out bonuses). and the economy was temporarily titillated. Who “Let the free market prevail,” was to American could celebrate creating “staggering amounts of economic principles as, “All men are created equal” money out of thin air” to bail out gangs of corrupt, was to American philosophical principles. But in reckless, greedy, compulsive gamblers and bloated, practice it was different. In finance, agribusiness, incompetent, noncompetitive industries … just be- healthcare, pharmaceuticals, media, retail, energy, cause they had been decreed “too big to fail”? food processing, defense … a few big names con- It wouldn’t work, it couldn’t work, it didn’t trolled most of the action. work. As the Times puff piece continued, “He [Ber-

6 The Trends Journal • Autumn 2009 nanke] will eventually have to reel all that money back … but Fed officials have been careful to say it is still too early to pull back anytime soon.” “Anytime soon” would be a long time coming. Rather than “pull back,” more money would be printed, and more bailouts and stimulus packages would be pushed through. But eventually, all that money spun out of “thin air” would have to be “reeled” back. When that time came around, the debt load would have become too-big-to-reel. But in late August of ‘09, with the world equity markets on a boomerang boom from their March lows, the fatal illogic of the Fed’s own policies was masked by assurances that an undisclosed “reel back” strategy was in place. Pronouncements issued by the highest officials precluded any consideration pression” was preordained. of dissent. In 2007, we forecast the “Panic of ‘08.” Brought “Central bankers from around the world ex- on by cheap money, easy credit and unrestrained pressed growing confidence on Friday that the worst borrowing, the crisis would not be solved by print- of the financial crisis is over and that a global eco- ing more cheap money, providing more easy credit, nomic recovery is beginning to take shape,” wrote and encouraging more borrowing. (See “Panic of The New York Times (24 August 2009), quoting ex- ‘08” Trends Journal®, Winter 2008.) perts in support. But back in 2009, that trio was precisely what “This is a bull market. There’s just a desire Wall Street recommended and Washington imple- to be in the market and hope that the train will mented. And the propaganda, disseminated and again leave the station,” hoped and desired Laszlo promoted by the media, claimed that they were Birinyi, of Birinyi Associates, who in February 2007, working. Thanks to bold government action, the five months prior to the onset of the credit crisis, worst had been averted, the recession was winding had declared, “I am optimistic about 2007. Funda- down, and recovery, albeit sluggish, would prevail mentals are still supportive. “ in 2010. “It is reasonable to declare that the worst of “So it seems that we aren’t going to have a sec- the crisis is behind us, and that the first signs of ond Great Depression after all. What saved us? The global growth have appeared earlier than generally answer, basically, is Big Government,” proclaimed expected nine months ago,” said Stanley Fischer, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman (The governor of the Bank of Israel. New York Times, 10 August 2009). “Declare”? The highest authorities left no room “Big Government” propping up big losers for dissent. Why not “suggest?” Since, read another would not stop the “Greatest Depression.” What way, the data indicated the worst was yet to come. looked like recovery to Krugman & Co. was a brief respite. By early 2010, another major financial cri- No Free Lunch Feeding the insatiable appe- sis would strike and economic conditions worldwide tites of the “too big to fail” with repeated injections would further deteriorate. The global economy was of liquidity could not stave off the inevitable. In terminally ill. Successive money fixes were keeping 2005, we forecast the demise of America’s Big Three the patient on life support, merely postponing the automakers, who were producing “stagecoach plat- inevitable. formed Hummers and rollover susceptible SUV gas It was the most speculative momentum-driv- gobblers loaded with hi-tech gadgetry.” (See “Hard- en stock market surge since the 1930s. The surge est Hit,” Trends Journal®, Autumn 2005.) With or wasn’t an indicator of recovery back then and it without government intervention, the “Greatest De- wouldn’t be in 2009. As equity markets climbed,

The Trends Journal • Autumn 2009 7 the Wall Street organ grinders ground out “Happy Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, A.I.G., Citigroup, Days Are Here Again.” The bulls had been embold- Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, Wachovia, Wash- ened by a flurry of economic statistics pointing to ington Mutual … were these the “financials” Fink recovery, ignoring the blizzard of statistics pointing was starting to like … firms that either went under in the opposite direction. or had to be bailed out? “The recession is dead, long live the recovery,” “The fears were unjustified”? Really? Was that Barclays Capital wrote its clients. Investors who had why the unemployment rate would nearly double bailed out during the “Panic of ‘08” were seduced from 5.1 to 9.8 percent and that the “not doing as back into placing new bets to recoup and/or average bad as it feels” economy would decline 6 percent in out their earlier losses. Except for a lucky few, they the first quarter of 2009? would again pay a price for heeding siren songs. Was it possible that a CEO responsible for man- With hefty tax breaks for first time homeown- aging $1.3 trillion could be that wrong about what ers, “Cash for Clunker” schemes to juice up the dead the near future held in store? Or, did he know better? auto industry and money-back inducements to buy But rather than let his company suffer losses, did he new appliances, average Joes were also suckered into deliberately set out to con the unwary investor into building up more debt they could not service. rescuing him? The Fink anecdote represents a cautionary tale Trendpost: It was a time to save, not spend; a time for savvy followers of trends. to preserve capital, not risk it. It was true that since 1984, a surging stock market had presaged the end of Trendpost: In December of 2001, we concluded recession 80 percent of the time. But with the econom- that gold, selling at $275 per ounce, had bottomed. ic fundamentals of 2009 bearing little resemblance to We had subsequently forecast a long gold bull run, anything in the past, this was no time to bet. reaching $2000 per ounce. By autumn of 2009 gold Those with a keen instinct for survival must had broken through the $1000 ceiling. never forget that the firms and the executives with Beyond the facts and data pointing to a high the most to lose also have the most to gain by con- probability of further financial chaos, for us, gold is vincing the public to keep on investing. These are the one of the few low risk plays and safe havens. Others “experts” routinely relied upon by the media and the thinking along the same lines also saw safety in silver. government for authoritative opinions. Thus, what Taking into account the ubiquity of Ponzi’s, looks like an informed consensus is no more than a Madoff’s, Stanford’s, inside deals, high-frequency sales pitch by barkers. Know the source and under- trading and cooked books, playing the markets is a stand the motives before trying your luck on the high loser’s game for all but the inside dealers and the stakes Wall Street Wheel of Fortune. book cookers. Here’s one example out of many. Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, managing $1.3 trillion in assets, Renaissance 2012 There were strategies gave his expert advice following the collapse of Bear for riding out the crisis that would have been less Stearns in March 2008. Asked if the market had bot- ruinous in the long run. Pumping up failing econo- tomed, he said, “We believe we are getting close and mies with trillions of “thin air” dollars was not one we may have hit it.” of them. Had capitalism been left to run its undeni- Hit it? In March 2008, the market was around ably painful course, when the “too big to fail” failed, 12,000. In March of 2009 it dissolved to 6,547. By the viable pieces would have been picked up by as- autumn, it hovered at 9,700. tute entrepreneurs and given new life. Asked if the problems at Bear were indicative Until 2008, that’s how it mostly worked in of conditions affecting other financial firms, Fink re- America. By 2012, it would be working like that plied, “The problem at Bear was Bear specific. The again, but with a 21st century twist. The intervening fears are unjustified. This economy is not doing as years would see the death and destruction of failed bad as it feels in New York City right now. I’m start- political and socioeconomic systems that had run ing to like financials.” their course and outlived their usefulness. The rec-

8 The Trends Journal • Autumn 2009 ommended prescriptions for “recovery” would not and could not restore to life a dinosaur. Many sensed an Empire America in decline. Discouraged, disheartened and disgusted with what the country had become, the only future they could envisage was a descending spiral. Yet, as something old was dying, something new was being born, but that something new was something old. In the truest sense, America was in the early stages of a Renaissance. But in 2009, such a concept was foreign to the media and beyond the pale of the collective uncon- scious. Renaissance! The word itself conjured up an image of Michaelangelo’s 16th century Italy; a time past with no apparent relevance to the present. Yet, Renaissance means a rebirth, a revival, a retrofitting of the best of the past. For America, Qualitatively, even quantitatively, that old model it was an “idea whose time had come.” Those who America provided a majority of its citizens with a saw the trend coming would stake early claims on far more satisfactory lifestyle than the America that the future. had replaced it. What would be reborn and revived? Without But that America was gone, and those days glossing over its many problems, inner conflicts and would not and could not return. Yet there would be systemic injustices, there was a time when America a rebirth; a conscious movement based on the rec- was #1. When the US led the world in quality of life, ognition that much of what worked in the past, in education, health, income, upward mobility … and principle, could be effectively and profitably applied was the most egalitarian and most envied nation in to the 21st century. It was a return to the values that the world. defined America at the zenith of its power, influ- In 2009, the US no longer won, placed or ence, prosperity and integrity. It was not a question showed in any of the standard-of-living categories, of sentimentality or nostalgia. and the gap between rich and poor had become the How could those elements be improved and widest of any industrialized nation. reapplied? To do so would require a rethinking and reevaluation of habits that had become second na- That #1 America was a time when: ture. Destructive habits — masquerading as “prog- n Main Street, not Wall Street, was the role ress” and responsible for America’s quality-of-life model decline — had to be broken. n Blue-collar workers wore blue collars and worked at jobs that gave them middle class Trendpost: The nation was ready to reconfigure incomes itself; to get back into shape physically, mentally, n Moms and Pops worked at their own emotionally and spiritually. In 2009, the “Get Fit shops, not as minimum wage chain store America” trend had not yet been defined, formu- clerks lated nor marketed. Only the problems were getting n Family Farms, not Factory Farms, fed the attention — obesity, prescription drug addiction, America stress, depression — not the solutions. n Americans ate real food, not Frankenfood Yet, this mega-trend would soon present bound- n Quality counted, not just the bottom line less opportunities for businesses and entrepreneurs to n A tightly knit community/neighborhood make a difference and make a buck. From daytime spirit prevailed, not vanilla suburban ano- TV to late night comics … from schools to churches, nymity kiddies to seniors, the “Get Fit America” trend be-

The Trends Journal • Autumn 2009 9 came part of the public consciousness in 2011. technology outweighed its practical benefits and/or Unlike previous get-in-shape trends, this one a predictable technological failure was guaranteed will be less fitness club oriented and tech/equipment to produce a predictably expensive repair bill, the heavy. “Whole Health Healing” became the buzz- extra technology wouldn’t be worth the price. word, and services, products and practitioners fur- For example, the newest model automobile is thering a holistic approach will be the cutting edge an embodiment of both destructive habits and con- of a trend that will grow for decades. ditioned thinking. It incorporates dozens of high tech gadgets and gizmos that add nothing to per- Selective Technology The Renaissance formance or reliability (the main purpose of the au- was not neo-Luddite. It was neither an attempt to tomobile), but add significantly to sticker price and return to the horse and buggy nor a disavowal of foreseeable repair bills. new technology that actually improved the quality Electric seats, power windows, automatic of 21st century life. transmissions, remote controlled locks, doors, mir- Rather, it was an embrace of “Selective Tech- rors, etc., are conveniences, not essentials. The nology”: a technology of the necessary. It was an more techno add-ons, the more complicated the embrace of what enhances human life rather than device, the more to fix. When money is tight and just complicates it; a balanced blend of the best of reality bites, making do is what you have to do … the new and the best of the old. not what you want to have. It might require a bit In 2009, there was no such thing as too much of effort — a bit of a stretch and reach to close a technology. People had become Technoslaves window, put a key in the lock, or manually operate (See “Technoslaves.com,” Trends Journal®, Win- the convertible top — but spoiled consumers with ter 2008.) It was impossible for whole genera- limited means would have to find ways to adapt to tions to imagine life without BlackBerries, tex- such “hardships.” ting, GPS, iPods, cell phones, the Internet. More By redirecting engineering priorities, a combi- = better. New = better. One habit ripe for recon- nation of space age materials and simplified prin- sideration was the relationship between man and ciples could produce inexpensive, stylish, highly technology. efficient automobiles designed to last for years with As Renaissance thinking began to take root, little maintenance. so did the understanding that less equals more. As What applied to the automobile applies, with economies collapsed, extravagant conveniences certain exceptions, to every aspect of life that is became unaffordable. With frugality in fashion, touched by or dependent upon technology. The cash-strapped consumers could no longer be se- planet-wide embrace of “Selective Technology” will duced into spending money they didn’t have on sacrifice little in comfort or performance and rein in expensive bells and unnecessary whistles they costs, while transforming the relationship between didn’t need. man and machine. Knowing that 72 percent of the GDP was consumer driven, and with retail slumping and unem- Editor’s Note: Some things worked just fine the ployment at 26-year highs and rising, experts were way they were. Take music. Since the beginning of still insisting that spending was a state of mind rath- civilization, music was performed in both intimate er than largely a pocketbook issue. “Consumers,” settings and large public spaces. In acoustically mourned USA Today, “are still not in a spending sophisticated amphitheaters, cathedrals, opera mood.” (19 August 2009.) houses and concert halls, thousands could both While the inability to spend touched every hear a whisper and thrill to an ecstatic full volume consumer-oriented activity — from dining to holi- performance. days, from buying clothes to driving cars, in the At outdoor venues in open spaces, only those techno-sphere it manifested as the principle of what in close range could hear small troupes of players. The Trends Research Institute termed “diminish- With the invention of electrical amplification, such ing technological returns”: when the cost of extra limitations were overcome. It was one example of

10 The Trends Journal • Autumn 2009 technology meeting a need, creating a market and revolutionizing an art form. But “more” technology does not necessarily equal “better.” Ear-shattering amplified music at restaurants, weddings and social events, for example, has become the new norm. Drowned out by decibels, participating victims nevertheless toler- ated the assault upon their senses for no other rea- sons than that it had become the norm … or they were too timid to complain. The louder it grew, the wider it spread. What began with just loud rock music became an all out auditory assault everywhere … movies, the- ater, sporting events … even the spoken word was screamed.

Trendpost: The principle of “Selective Technology” would restrict techno thrills to venues whose purpose is sensory overload. The “Selective Technology” that would play so important a role in the Renaissance would have its Trendpost: Necessity, always the mother of inven- analogues in many fields. Ports that provide - emo tion, would spawn a host of creative progeny to ad- tional respite from the turbulent socioeconomic and dress the new (old) thinking and new needs. A new political storms will be at the forefront of a new cul- professional field of “Retro-Engineers” will -spear tural profit trend with long-term potential. - Estab head the “Selective Technology” trend. lishments and venues featuring “natural,” calming, Just as big businesses and multi-nationals were genteel, sophisticated acoustic environments will at- blind to trends in organic foods, gourmet coffee, mi- tract a leading edge clientele. cro brew beers, complementary medicine and alter- On-trend marketers and entrepreneurs under- native energy until grassroots movements grew the stand the importance of winning over the leading markets, so, too, will they be slow to recognize the edge; knowing the rest will follow. Those in the art power of the “Selective Technology” trend. and entertainment worlds that proact to this trend Universities and colleges, in lockstep with cor- early will set the stage and tone for the American porate slogs, will cede the creative advantage to in- Renaissance; retrofitting the best of the past to en- dividuals and private startups, depriving themselves hance the future … sounds and styles of America’s of the opportunity to build enrollment and re-ener- past made new. Two generations that have little ap- gize their curriculums. preciation of what that simpler America was like — Those smaller and nimbler institutions and dis- when “quality” counted — will warm to a past newly tance-learning colleges that see the trend first will reconfigured to the 21st century. prosper the most. More than just a different empha- sis on design, it would encourage a whole new way Publisher’s Note: In 2009, “Selective Technology” of thinking about the past. wasn’t on the radar screen of business and indus- Students with hi-tech/engineering talents as try. Even when the short-lived economic remission well as an appreciation of old school values and turned back into the “Greatest Depression,” busi- craftsmanship will be in high demand. Retro-Engi- ness and industry would continue to resist “Selec- neers will find lucrative jobs available and - abun tive Technology” answers or strategies, justifying dant possibilities for building their own businesses. status quo thinking with its standard fallback posi- The old 20th century adage “keep it simple, stu- tion: “This is what the people want.” pid” would be reinforced by “make it simple, stupid.”

The Trends Journal • Autumn 2009 11 as March, 1994. (See “Microfarming,” Trends Jour- nal®, Spring 1994.) In 2009, the trend was still a toddler. By 2012, Urban/Suburban Ag will be both celebrity chic and a mainstream mainstay.

Trendpost: Many once vital organizations providing facilities and popular health/fitness/social programs faltered as the suburbs sprawled and cities died. As the Whole Health Healing/Fitness trends gathered momentum they would reincarnate … some with new names in new Renaissance bodies. As tax protests increase and tax revenues de- crease, cash-strapped schools will be forced to aban- don even the pretense of phys ed classes. A wide variety of private, extra-curricular programs will spring up to help kids gain skills, not weight, and Trendpost: Rather than “Geek-Out” or “Over-App,” in the process learn to grow food, work with their green manufacturers able to create cost effective, me- hands, eat healthy and help restore the environment. chanical products that can be repaired rather than replaced will tap into underserved back-to-basics Publisher’s Note: Among the most troubling trends market segments. in play as the “Greatest Depression” takes hold are growing poverty, a declining high school graduation Trendpost: While some things worked fine the way rate, increased illegal drug usage and rising unem- they were, other things worked much better the way ployment, particularly among the already disadvan- they were. taged. With no skills, no jobs and no prospects, in- The modern factory farm produces high yields creasing numbers will join gangs and turn to crime. per acre of chemically fertilized, pesticide laden, hor- It would prove imperative that businesses, cor- mone enhanced, genetically engineered food that is porations, governments and foundations — both in inferior in every respect to the nutritionally superior public and private sectors — swiftly marshal their food grown on the old fashioned, nearly extinct fam- resources to address and reverse this dangerous ily farm. trend. More than a moral or social responsibility, Whether on the prairie or in empty ghetto lots, it would become a matter of life and death. One there is money in the microfarm: instantly available solution would be to put vast numbers of unemployed young people to work on Growing for Big Profit on a making “America the Beautiful” beautiful. Small Parcel of Land According to a recent Census of Agriculture, Trendpost: Proliferating product recalls and food the most productive farmland in the United scares will increasingly alienate the general public States is in the Borough of the Bronx! The from agribusiness. Committed to a business model second most productive farmland is in the that sacrifices quality to high volume production at City of San Francisco! You can earn up to the lowest possible cost … their food philosophy re- eight times the average personal income on sults in products that poison people, and poison and as little as one acre of land. (MetroFarm, The plunder the planet. Online Magazine of Metropolitan Agricul- Those that can afford to not eat big business ture, 10 September 2009.) food will buy local and buy “clean.” (See “Clean Foods,” Trends Journal®, Spring 1994.) Tainted im- The Trends Research Institute had forecast the ports will incite boycotts and movements for higher growth and profitability of micro-farming as early food standard safety regulations.

12 The Trends Journal • Autumn 2009 As economies weaken, boisterous public calls talents in arts and crafts rather than occupy their for protectionism will strengthen. A battle will ensue minds with disposable toys and electronic games. as globalization proponents fight to keep trade bar- riers down and tariffs low. We forecast that despite Involuntary Voluntary Simplicity intense lobbying efforts, expensive public relations While the “make it simple” philosophy anchored campaigns and lavish political payoffs, the public “Selective Technology,” the “keep it simple” theme outcry will result in a new wave of protectionism inspired the accompanying “Voluntary Simplicity” and tariffs. lifestyle. Between them they characterized the ex- ternal aspects of Renaissance life. Trendpost: As a sign of what was to come, in Sep- Unlike “Selective Technology,” which was truly tember 2009, at the behest of trade unions who something new, “Voluntary Simplicity” was as new claimed Chinese tire imports had cost 7,000 manu- as America was old. It was a reawakening and ret- facturing jobs, Washington imposed a new import rofitting of the Jeffersonian/agrarian vision, the duty of 35 percent on Chinese tires on top of the homespun wisdom of Ben Franklin’s Poor Rich- existing 4 percent tariff. Accusing the US of “ram- ard’s Almanac and Ralph Waldo Emerson’s “Self- pant protectionism,” China threatened to retaliate Reliance.” by imposing higher import duties on US auto parts The trend itself had roots in even earlier com- and chicken. munal experiments by Quakers, Shakers, Freema- The “Made in” or “Grown in” (country of your sons, Transcendentalists, and a variety of mystical/ choice) trend will spread worldwide. While the Utopian sects. Over the course of American history, new protectionism trend will be blamed by global- dozens germinated, took root and flourished for ists and the media for intensifying the “Greatest generations before dispersing, fading out or morph- Depression,” the ill-effects will be felt more on Wall ing back into the mainstream. Street than Main Street. With domestic and global This philosophical commitment to an ideal productive capacity far outstripping consumer de- world was as American as apple pie. By 2009, the mand, commodity priced items will be kept from utopian American ideal had resurfaced under a new sharply rising. unifying principle — people were going broke, losing Once again, those seeing and acting early upon their jobs, their homes, their hopes. They called it the “Made in/Grown in” trend will profit. the Great Recession. The ground had been prepared. Even the mass media began to acknowledge Publisher’s Note: No Renaissance can occur with- the movement they had previously derided or ig- out building its foundation upon the arts. Art is nored. No longer confined to the Birkenstock Bat- not entertainment or just a business. Art is a way talion, the trend to “Use it up, wear it out, make of finding the true meaning of the human spirit. A it do, do without” had hit home. Personally suffer- comprehensive understanding and appreciation of ing from the major layoffs that decimated the entire art, in its most profound manifestation … aesthetic, print news/publishing industry, journalists were no religious, cosmic … defined every great civilization longer writing about “other” people, they were writ- of the past and without it there will be no great civi- ing about themselves. lization of the future. The Trends Research Institute, however, had For America to experience its Renaissance, it been following the “Voluntary Simplicity” trend is incumbent upon everyone to do what they can through its many twists and turns for two decades. within their means. For the wealthy, buy from and In Trends 2000, (written in 1995) we predicted, support living artists for the value of how the work “Voluntary Simplicity, an unrealizable countercul- hits the heart, not for its eventual resale value. For ture ideal in the seventies, will become a reality everyone else, give a holiday, birthday, wedding, and a significant trend in the new millennium. En- graduation gift that is artisan made, not manufac- trepreneurs able to provide goods or services that tured in a Chinese factory. And when buying for enhance the quality of life while at the same time children, give gifts that will further their creative saving money will make money.”

The Trends Journal • Autumn 2009 13 By 2012, small was not only beautiful, it was reluctant new recruits into the movement. We re- bountiful. “Get big or get out” had been Washing- named it “Involuntary Voluntary Simplicity.” ton’s post World War II advice to farmers. And sub- Without the hard times there would have been sequent government policies that rewarded the big- no significant trend. There would have been little gest businesses with tax breaks, loans and subsidies incentive to join it and the avid consumer would had driven most family farms out of business. have continued avidly consuming. Only when the This time it was a “Big Is Bad” backlash that shopping stopped, did people stop to think. would revive Main Street, and breathe life into the Suddenly, however, the trend was stopped dead family farm and Mom and Pops. Community spirit in its tracks. Absent a declaration of war or other and hometown flavor would break the chain store earth-shaking development, this was abnormal grip and the pervasive influence of franchised ho- trend behavior. mogeneity. Almost overnight, jobs became plentiful, incomes increased and Wall Street was on fire. The Trendpost: Although real estate prices would re- Internet Revolution had begun, dot-coms were main generally depressed, derelict old town neigh- booming and consumers were bingeing. borhoods that had not been destroyed by urban re- High stake rollers and market amateurs were newal would be “born again.” Judicious investments throwing huge sums of money at precocious ado- in such areas would repay themselves well. lescents starting companies built on business plans filled with techno-jargon that no one understood. “Voluntary Simplicity” was nothing to fantasize or And for good reason … they made no sense. romanticize about. On the personal level it was A whole new lexicon was invented to accom- deeply gratifying. Getting off the grid, making it on modate new ways of doing business, communicat- your own, beholden to no one, self-sustaining. All ing, and transferring and acquiring information. these were worthwhile life aims. But on the macro Download, upload, e-commerce, web sites, domains, level it was just a beginning. spam, “Word,” ISPs, browsers, portals, Yahoo, Google, eBay … it was a whole new cyber world. Trend Tracking Tip: One aim of the Trends Journal® is to teach our readers the skills necessary to iden- HYPE VS. REALITY tify, analyze and forecast trends for themselves so But the smoke-and-mirror hard sell and sky-high they can apply those skills to individual needs and values placed on start-up stocks in those early stag- situations. es invited suspicion. At The Trends Research In- The “Voluntary Simplicity” trend provides a stitute, we saw the hype for what it was: an enor- rich trend-forecasting lesson. This one trend is in mous bubble that had to burst. We even predicted itself almost a “how to” manual of the art. It dem- its “pop” date five months before it happened. (See onstrates how trends are born, detected, analyzed, “Dot-Com This,” Trends Journal®, Autumn 1999.) projected forward … and how sometimes they are However, we miscalculated the power and po- derailed by unforeseeable events, wild cards and tential of the onrushing digital age. Hype apart, a miscalculations. real transformational revolution was underway. We first forecast the “Simplicity” trend and The relatively orderly and predictable pace of wrote about it at length in 1995, but only in 2009 technological change that had applied to significant did it become the force we had reckoned on. Our inventions past (printing press, steam engine, loco- forecast was on track, but it stalled for over a de- motive, cotton gin, telegraph, telephone, electric cade. What happened? light, typewriter, automobile, radio, airplane, televi- In fact, a noticeable back-to-nature, anti-mate- sion, jet plane) gave way to Moore’s Law. Formal- rialist “Voluntary Simplicity” movement had been ized in 1965 by Gordon Moore, founder of Intel, gathering steam throughout the late 1980s. Then, it states that “circuit density doubles roughly every in the early 90s, high unemployment, brutal corpo- two years.” Extrapolated and applied to the digital/ rate downsizing and the recession drafted legions of computer age in general, Moore’s Law means that

14 The Trends Journal • Autumn 2009 advance in these hi-tech fields proceeds exponen- tially rather than incrementally. Moore’s Law in action, directing the advance of an immense industry (whose perceptible growth cycle was barely a decade old), meant that the looming recession we had predicted for the late 90s was postponed by the tremendous and almost instantaneous productive reach of the new high technology. And therein lies a useful but complex trend lesson, for this was truly “something com- pletely different.” In the world of hi-tech, the rules of change themselves had changed. The old, incremental processes had been rendered obsolete by the new Moore’s Law.

WILD CARDS Moreover, technology in general would occupy an inordinate slice of contemporary life and, unabated, municated. It transformed the world of scholarship gobble up an ever greater market share of the mind. and research into a virtual global Library of Alex- Taking a proactive role in riding the hi-tech wave in- andria accessible at a click. (See “Alexandrian Li- volved not so much new skill sets, as the ability to brary,” Trends Journal®, Winter 2007.) recognize the intrinsic unpredictability of the sector Although we did not fully anticipate the power itself. It was the difference between skillfully deploy- and reach of the Internet Revolution, those whose ing troops on a recognizable battlefield and fighting livelihoods were most immediately affected by it, guerilla warfare in strange and uncharted territory. and who had the most at stake were even more Hi-tech is a deck full of wild cards. It is impos- unprepared. The captains of the broadsided indus- sible to know in advance which cards will be dealt, tries either underestimated the damage or met the and once dealt, how they will influence the game. cyber-challenge with suicidal strategies … such as For example, innovations such as YouTube, Wikipe- newspapers and magazines giving away their con- dia and Facebook went from birth to maturity in a tent free on-line. digital moment with far reaching implications that were unforeseen in the early days of the Internet LAWS OF NATURE Revolution. Yet, for all its transformational power, while the hi- Hi-tech or otherwise, wild cards can turn up tech wild card postponed the recession, it did not at any time. While they will change the immediate reverse it. The thunderous dot-com crash of March hand, they do not necessarily change the game. But 2000 was followed by recession. Given the magni- when the game changes, the effects are swift, un- tude of the bust ($5 trillion in wealth evaporated), mistakable and dramatic; simultaneously both cre- we forecast that the financial damage would be long ative and destructive. and lasting. Thus, as the Internet Revolution stampeded However, the 2000 recession turned out to be onto the global stage bringing with it an array of short lived, temporarily derailed this time by irre- new, creative opportunities, it also rendered obso- sponsible Federal Reserve policies that contravened lete a spectrum of familiar products and services. all financial logic. Lowering interest rates to 46-year Time-honored businesses, and even whole indus- lows, the Fed flooded the world with cheap money. tries, were put on the endangered list (typewriter, With credit lines wide open, liquidity flowed freely printing, newspapers, magazine publishing, “snail” and market regulations were removed and/or ig- mail, music, etc.). It changed the way people com- nored. A global real estate bubble was inflated, and

The Trends Journal • Autumn 2009 15 a merger/acquisition/leveraged buyout frenzy was being propped up by giant pillars made of paper ignited. money, printed out of thin air and backed by noth- In this instance, we underestimated the gov- ing. But just as before, a majority, egged on by the ernment’s self-destructive ability to inflate another media and the government, dismissed the hard facts speculative bubble, bigger than all previous bub- because the big lie was more comfortable. bles, but, like all of them, predictably doomed to “In the simplicity of their minds, people burst. A time would come when interest rates would more readily fall victims to the big lie than rise, credit lines would tighten, borrowing would the small lie, since they themselves often slow and a credit crisis would ensue. tell small lies in little matters but would be We had correctly forecast two recessions. The ashamed to resort to large-scale falsehoods. first, in the 1990s, was derailed by the wild card It would never come into their heads to fab- power of the Internet Revolution. ricate colossal untruths, and they would not The second, in 2000, was postponed by a bor- believe that others could have such impu- rowing and spending spree so reckless as to be in- dence. Even though the facts which prove conceivable. But once the decision had been made this to be so may be brought clearly to their to drastically lower interest rates immediately fol- minds, they will still doubt and continue to lowing 9/11, the outcome was predictable. think that there may be some other expla- THE “GREAT RECESSION” nation.” The “Great Recession,” as it will become — Adolph Hitler, Mein Kampf known by 2007, will maintain its grip for at You have to look at the data for what they are and least a generation. Consumer bankruptcy fil- where they lead, not for where you want them to ings, running at about 1.55 million in 2003, take you. You need to make decisions independent will more than double, home foreclosures of popular opinion, possibly sacrificing short-term will skyrocket, businesses of all sizes will gain with an eye toward the long-term outcome. It collapse and government debt will soar as could be a matter of professional or financial sur- the income stream from tax sources shrink. vival. But easier said than done! Trends Journal®, January 2004. Ignoring popular opinion takes courage. Admit- We were a lone voice. No one in the trend forecast- ting that what you thought you knew may be wrong ing field, on Wall Street, in the government or the and acquiring the ability to consider views, analyses media was predicting a “Great Recession” — much and facts that run counter to personal convictions less giving it the name it would be known by and takes even more courage. calling the date it would arrive. As we monitored ongoing events, we found Trend Lesson: Try to recognize the wild card as no evidence obliging us to reverse our prediction, soon as it is dealt. No matter how well you try to even though that stand came at a high financial and prepare, it can be dealt at anytime, it comes in all professional price. With people making money and forms and even when dealt, it might not look so the economy looking deceptively strong, we found wild. When first dealt, we knew the Internet Revo- ourselves persona non grata, ignored or ridiculed as lution was a wild card, but we underestimated its gloom-and-doomers. wildness.

Trend Lesson: When the accumulated data force a By 2009, the business buzz and political spin was conclusion that runs counter to popular opinion and that the Great Recession was ending: “US service perceived wisdom, its essential to stick to your guns. industries expanded in September for the first time A case in point: back in 2009, popular opinion in a year as the emerging recovery spread from and the perceived wisdom was that recovery was on housing and factories to the broader economy.” the way. But the accumulated data indicated a cov- (Bloomberg, 5 October 2009.) er up, not a recovery. The collapsing economy was At The Trends Research Institute, considering

16 The Trends Journal • Autumn 2009 facts, not buying “buzz” led us to conclude reces- The Band Played On With the authori- sion had already morphed into depression. “U.S. ties having reassured the public, the media concen- Job Seekers Exceed Openings by Record Ratio — 6 trated its attention on more urgent public interest Jobless for Each Spot.” (The New York Times, 27 matters. September 2009.) September Labor Department By 2012, most will have forgotten (and others statistics revealed that unemployment among 16-24 no doubt wished they had) the month-long non- year olds hit a record 52 percent. stop frenzy of non-news incited by the death of pop Yet even such facts did nothing to dispel the star Michael Jackson. big lie coming from the Buzzkateers, who claimed it There were many interlocking socioeconomic, was a “jobless recovery.” The surging equity markets geopolitical, philosophical and cultural facets in- signaled an end to the recession, and job growth, a volved in America’s decline. The Michael Jackson lagging indicator, would follow. saga was more than just hype and a means to boost But the elementary math belied the buzz. No ratings, all justified by the media’s favorite fallback matter how the numbers were juggled and recon- position: “This is what the people want.” figured, 2 + 2 could only make 4. There was noth- Or, rather, was it what the media wanted? Be- ing in the economic future that would produce six hind the cosmetic façades did there lurk warped lit- new jobs for every one opening, find jobs for the tle minds that loved to wallow in the squalid, the tit- 9.5 million jobless young … or keep a predictable illating and the exploitative … and who used “this percentage of those on the lowest economic rungs is what the public wants” as camouflage for their from turning to crime as a last resort. own degenerate tastes? Was it that both the public In 2008, we predicted the financial markets and the media got off on such fare, or was it that would collapse in March 2009, and they did. There the broadcast celebrities were just following orders was worldwide panic, temporarily calmed by Wash- from corporate headquarters? ington and the Federal Reserve’s pledge to print (i.e. Regardless, the death of Michael Jackson pro- invent) as much money as was needed to prevent a vided an insight into 2009 America, a fractal of its total financial meltdown and restore confidence. soul; an essential element representing the whole. The markets stabilized, then surged in tandem What else could explain the thousands of hours and with economic data, registering decelerating but millions of dollars spent on the dead “King of Pop” still ominous losses across the board. by the “Fourth Estate,” august watchdogs for the This combination of market spike and less citizenry? worse economic news was ballyhooed as “recov- So irrational was the coverage that hardcore ery.” There was no recovery. It was a cover up, a conspiracy theorists saw in it an Illuminati plot. A shell game, Three Card Monty. Con men who did deliberate diversionary tactic conjured up by evil not see the crisis coming and/or were responsible masterminds to distract the people’s attention from for bringing it on, suckered the public into believ- the onrushing “Greatest Depression” and its pre- ing they had the answers and that the situation was dictable consequences. under control. The Empire was in flames, and the media fiddled. While the story of this celebrity flameout Trend Lesson: The government’s goal (no matter the wouldn’t warrant a footnote in the history books, country) is to retain or enhance its power. And the the phenomenon of total media saturation and pub- financial sector’s goal is to maximize profits. Pious lic absorption provided a telling snapshot of what posturing and public pronouncements notwithstand- America had become and where it was heading. ing, the underlying objectives are always money and Wrapped in Michael Jackson — the latest episode power. The common good, if considered at all, is rel- in a long, steamy sequence that previously featured egated to secondary consideration. O.J. Simpson, Joey Buttafucco, Anna Nicole Smith, Only with this understood does it become pos- Paris Hilton and Britney Spears — was the inevita- sible to parse the present and look to the future real- bility of America’s downfall; its cosmic inability to istically, clear-eyed and un-deluded. look at itself.

The Trends Journal • Autumn 2009 17 As G.I. Gurdjieff asserted, all impressions are different time and world. This was the Global Age. “food.” The truism “food for thought” is not just Bit players on the world stage eighty years ago — metaphorically true, it is as literally true as “you are China, India, Brazil, etc. — had become major play- what you eat”: those who feed their brains with junk ers by 2009. To rely upon Depression-era tactics to news inescapably think junk thoughts, just as those lead the way to recovery was like fighting World War who feed on junk food develop junk food bodies. II using WW I weaponry. (The data spoke for itself; 34 percent of adult Amer- There were few meaningful comparisons be- icans were clinically obese.) tween the Great Depression and the “Greatest De- While self-righteous voices railed against the pression.” (See “Financial Passover Question: Why super-sized portions of junk news fed to the public is this Depression different from all other Depres- by the media, a free ride was given to the “celebrity sions?” Trends Journal®, Autumn 2008.) chefs” cooking it up and dishing it out. Nonetheless, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Katie Couric, Brian Williams, Charlie Gibson, Bernanke, renowned for his Depression-era schol- Wolf Blitzer, Anderson Cooper … ABC, CBS, CNN, arship, resorted to spare parts from the 1930’s mod- PBS, Fox, MSNBC … every news anchor and cable el to repair a 21st century wreck. personality on every show was selling Michael Jack- Stuck in the past, Bernanke had long since son. The biggest mouths in broadcasting devoted demonstrated an inability to both grasp the present entire evening news programs to every aspect of the and design viable strategies in anticipation of the dead pop star’s hectic life, meteoric career, immense future. successes, prodigious debts, endless problems, du- On January 10, 2008, with the nation already bious proclivities, private habits and the frivolous in recession, the Fed Chairman said it would not music of a young glittering talent turned toxic in arrive. “Thus, notwithstanding the effects of multi- middle age. billion dollar write-downs on the earnings and share What kind of mind would spend days sorting prices of some large institutions, the banking sys- through and reporting on the minutiae of a dead tem remains sound … The Federal Reserve is not pop star’s life? And what kind of mind would confer currently forecasting a recession,” said the Federal sub-hero status upon media talking heads who do Reserve Chairman. nothing but read the news with bogus gravitas? Testifying before Congress three months later, They Meet the Press and Face the Nation on the Fed seer said he still was not sure if the US was influential television talk/public affairs programs. in recession. “Recession is possible, but recession is They moderate and officiate at presidential de- a technical term … I’m not ready to say whether or bates and other nationally staged political events, not the US economy will face such a situation.” but their credentials are no more than a photo- The Supreme Financial Commander had spo- genic TV persona and an ability to read from a ken. To him, recession was still a “technical term.” teleprompter. And to the millions that had already lost jobs, These are America’s “anchors.” So insecurely homes and their futures, it wasn’t a recession ei- set, that at the first whiff of sleaze they turn from ther. As the old saying goes, “A recession is when even cursory coverage of the greatest financial your neighbor loses a job. It’s a depression when crime in the history of the world to ponder pa- you lose your job.” ternity questions swirling about a Michael Jackson Armed with the most comprehensive financial love child. data available, not only was Bernanke “not ready to say” the nation was going into recession — even Real Reality TV In 2009, it was acknowl- while it was in it — he also didn’t comprehend the edged that the world was in the midst of the longest magnitude of the worst financial storm since the and deepest economic decline since the Great De- Great Depression until it hit. There was little or no pression. recognition that the crisis was both unique and un- However, comparisons to the 1930s and De- fixable. pression-era remedies were inapplicable. It was a

18 The Trends Journal • Autumn 2009 Laissez-Welfare Before “too big to fail” one layout, one uniform nation … a cacophony of entered the vocabulary, America was the country monotony. where you rose or fell on your own merits. There was no king, no queen, no lords or noblemen. In its Trend Forecast: By 2012, most of the “too big to Declaration of Independence, all men were created fail” had become “too fat to feed.” The super-size equal. Rank and market share didn’t matter. There model that had characterized everything American were no government charities set up to help the fi- in the second half of the 20th century could no longer nancially needy. sustain itself. The obesity epidemic in the US could From its inception, America always had its be considered a metaphor for its bloated institutions. plantation owners, railroad magnates, robber bar- What applies to the unhealthy individual applies to ons, cattle kings, oil tycoons and assorted captains the unhealthy society. Overfeeding an already over- of industry that controlled large market shares of fed individual will momentarily satisfy the appetite the economy. But in the history of the United States, but ensure an early demise. none of them had ever been “too big to fail.” Twenty-first century America would fall victim What had happened? Why now? How did to principles or laws of scale that were organic in America, once the entrepreneurial capital of the nature, inexorable, cosmic, and immune to human world, devolve into a nation of “too big to fails”? tinkering. Just as there is in nature a “right” size The process leading to it was long in the making. In for everything from a mouse to an elephant, so even 1999 we had identified the lethal trend, named it, in areas apparently totally divorced from nature (fi- and predicted that if not checked, it would destroy nancial markets, manufacturing) these laws could free market capitalism. (See “Laissez-Welfare,” not be broken without consequences. Trends Journal®, Autumn 1999.) Rather than stop Across the nation the tax protests and anti- it in its tracks or reverse it, the trend was deliber- big government sentiment gathering force in 2009 ately expedited. would morph into anti-big business/anti-multina- This was the latest maneuver to further tip tionals/anti-corporate movements. In the early 20th the business playing field. Regulatory agencies century, public pressure forced legislation to “Break in charge of oversight were neutered. When Wall up the Trusts” (the business monopolies of the era). Street said “Jump,” Congress asked, “How high?” A century later, public pressure would force legisla- Laws designed to protect small banks and anti-trust tion to “Break up the Chains” of retail and financial regulations set up to promote business competi- monopolies. tion were gutted. The dismantling of anti-trust acts (Sherman-Clayton and the Robinson-Patman) de- Come the Revolution In autumn of signed to protect small businesses from predatory 2009, 50 percent of American adults approved of pricing practices of larger competitors (usually in- President Obama’s handling of the economy and volving discounts for quantity purchases), paved the believed it was on the mend. Stocks were up 32 way for the death of Main Street. percent since Obama’s Inauguration. No new presi- Over the course of just a few decades an Amer- dent since Franklin D. Roosevelt had presided over ica that — despite its problems — had been the envy a bigger market rally. of the world, was transformed. Facilitated by the But a growing, not-so-silent minority wasn’t financiers, a nation of robust manufacturing, mil- convinced. And while their immediate target was lions of Mom-and-Pop shops, family farms and vital Obama, anger had been building since the real es- small towns had succumbed to fast food and super- tate bubble had burst and fallout from the Great market chains, gigantic Frankenfood farms the size Recession had settled over the entire nation, hitting of small countries, sprawling malls, hideous big box the middle and lower classes the hardest. stores, eyesore franchised convenience stores, fran- Two decades of financial lawlessness had pro- chises for everything from mattresses to eyeglasses. moted unfettered speculation and fostered the America was unrecognizable. With individuality creation of those “esoteric financial instruments” and creativity stifled it became a one size, one look, whose only function was to enrich the banking and

The Trends Journal • Autumn 2009 19 brokerage community. Economists, the business news and “Reality TV” was real! media, Wall Street and Washington called it high The descendants of the warrior patriots who finance. With home ownership at record levels, real had written the book on modern revolution and estate values skyrocketing, and the average Joe feel- fought free of monarchical tyranny, now bowed ing rich, borrowing freely and even speculating, meekly beneath the insults and injustices rained few questioned the legitimacy of the boom times. It down upon them by their own government. Seem- would take the bust to expose the complex systemic ingly incapable of thinking for themselves, they financial fraud. persisted in the belief that their political leaders Yet, even if and when it was explained, it re- were fighting for them and had their best interests mained incomprehensible to the majority with no at heart … that their oppressors were their saviors. background in economics or finance. All they knew In 2009, the odds of Americans hoisting them- was that they were losing their jobs, their houses selves off their La-Z-Boys and taking to the streets were being foreclosed, and their tax money was be- ranged from “not a chance” to “just about zero.” ing used to pay off gambling debts of the people Yet, anyone betting against the American Spirit who had engineered the crisis. would have placed a losing bet. America’s decline was common knowledge. What Americans were putting up with on a Polls showed diminished expectations for future daily basis was a new variation of the insufferable generations and the numbers showed steady dete- arrogance of King George III toward his colonies, rioration in healthcare, wages, education and virtu- and the brutal insensitivity of 18th Century French ally every quality-of-life parameter. aristocracy toward their suffering masses. While the At home, disenchantment had long been build- players and provocations were different, the results ing. There was a widespread sense that the good old would be the same. days were over and the systems were failing. The Out of work, pensions lost, can’t make the middle class lifestyle and the prospects for upward mortgage, can’t pay the electric, phone, cable, water mobility that had always been taken for granted bill, school tax, property tax, car payment, insur- were no longer part of the American dream that had ance, credit card, gas for the car, heat for the house sustained the nation for two centuries. … in 2008, millions were on the financial ropes. It dissipated into the new bleak reality with And, as Trends Research Institute Director, Gerald barely a struggle. The more Americans lost (or had Celente puts it, “When people lose everything and taken away from them), the less they fought. have nothing left to lose, they lose it.” Abroad, foreigners — especially Europeans who Revolution would not come easily, nor quickly, would have been at the barricades long ago — mar- but come it would. Looking back from 2012, there veled at the spectacle. What had happened to the was no one galvanizing moment, no single Bastille pioneering, take-no-nonsense, rugged Yankee spirit Day or Magna Carta or Declaration of Independence that set America apart from all other cultures? How to point to, but rather a series of complex factors could the American people allow themselves to be that taken together became the lit fuse. so manipulated? What were they waiting for? At home, the same questions were asked. A THE FUSE disenchanted minority knew the systems were fail- Early in 2008, with the global equity markets in ing and knew that both Republican and Democrats free fall and financial conditions rapidly deterio- represented only the most special of interests, but rating, most Americans were persuaded to accept held out little hope that anything would spur their the necessity of government bailouts of brokerage countrymen into action. firm Bear Stearns and the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac mortgage lenders. REVOLTING But in late September, when the TARP (Trou- Revolt? Them? Overstuffed and junk food fattened, bled Asset Relief Program) was proposed by George minds glued to American Idol, believing what they W. Bush, both the near trillion dollar size of the were watching on the networks and cable TV was package and the encroachment of government into

20 The Trends Journal • Autumn 2009 free enterprise provoked intense public opposition. Polls showed that as many as 90 percent of those who contacted their representatives and senators were against the passage of TARP, but TARP was passed. The “Land of the Free” and “The Home of the Brave” had become the “Land of the Federally Sub- jugated” and “The Home of the Meekly Subservi- ent.” The socioeconomic landscape of America had been so dramatically altered that it bore little resemblance to the nation of their forefathers or even their grandfathers. Not only was TARP foisted upon the nation, when the inspector-general in charge of overseeing the bailouts demanded to know where the money went, the US Treasury refused to tell him! “It is not possible to say that investment of TARP dollars re- sulted in particular loans, investments or other activities by the recipient,” said the head of the Trea- sury program. were not enough to undermine the economy and Why was it “not possible”? What could be more threaten the free enterprise system which was the possible? The banks were given vast amounts of nation’s cornerstone. Nor did they lead to the gov- taxpayer money. What did they do with it? They re- ernment holding equity stakes in the rescued firms. fused to tell the American people that gave them And the dollar amounts involved paled in compari- the money, where the money went! son to the trillions confiscated from the public by The arrogance, the gall, the disrespect; the fla- the Bush/Obama stick-ups. grant “to hell with the people” attitude was more than a simple disconnect between government and THE GOLDMAN GANG the people. Wall Street had hijacked Washington. Long before 2012, people had forgotten what the (See Trend Alert®: “DC Heist: Wall Street Hijacks original purpose of TARP was. Secretary of the Washington,” 22 September 2008.) Treasury, Henry Paulson (former CEO of Goldman A democracy in name only, America was not a Sachs) baited the public and Congress into believ- representative government. Elected officials repre- ing the money would go to help homeowners fac- sented those who paid the most to buy their votes. ing foreclosure and free up credit markets so small While it was illegal to openly buy a vote for a couple businesses could borrow. But with TARP passed of dollars, anybody’s vote could be, and was bought and the money in hand — and having demanded … but only if the price was right. Money spoke and been granted full power to spend it at his dis- louder than any words spoken by the majority. cretion — Paulson switched the game. Instead, hun- In 2008, financial and real estate interests dreds of billions went to the Treasury Czar’s bank- spent $345.4 million to buy politicians and control ing and brokerage buddies … the perpetrators of legislation. Washington called it “campaign financ- the financial crimes. ing” and “lobbying.” Anywhere else it was called With banks and financial firms reporting “bribery.” “boffo” profits thanks to the tax-payer funded wind- Prior to the “Panic of ’08,” there had been falls and once again showering themselves with government bailouts of private enterprise (Chrysler bonuses bigger than the GDPs of many small na- Corp. in 1979; the 1989-1990s Savings and Loan tions, infuriated citizens held their representatives crisis; the 1998 Long Term Capital Management responsible for the giveaway. rescue). Considered substantial at the time, they But Congress copped the plea: “In retrospect,

The Trends Journal • Autumn 2009 21 Congress felt bullied by Mr. Paulson last year. Many In non-White Shoe language “the best and the of them fervently believed they should not prop up brightest talent” meant the slickest, greediest and the banks that had led us to this crisis — yet they most unprincipled with the state of the art skills re- were pushed by Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke into quired to destroy capital, bring down their firm and passing the $700 billion TARP, which was then used ravage the lives of all those that had invested in or to bail out those very banks.” (The New York Times, depended upon A.I.G. 16 July 2009.) “Bullied”? Bullied by whom? Henry “The JIVE TALK Don” Paulson, the Wall Street Enforcer? It was the Rather than call a spade a spade or a crime a crime, Golden Rule in action: those with the gold ruled. the complicit business and mainstream media And, Goldman ruled the gold. winked and euphemized the activity under the ru- With Paulson in control, the Goldman Sachs bric of “esoteric financial products” and “debt in- Gang held the keys to the national treasury. And struments.” But they were neither “products” nor nothing would change when the new President and “instruments” — language that conferred upon them new crew of political prostitutes took over. There a spurious physical validity. They were white-collar was no denying the extent of the Goldman Gang’s schemes; financial phantasms conjured up out of infiltration and its influence in both Washington mathematical formulae by organized crime families and abroad. and their Ivy League whiz kids. From Atlantic to Pacific, it was mob rule. Amer- With the crime bosses calling the shots and in icans were being forced to pay “protection money,” control of Washington, they did as they pleased. but the money went to protect the crime families, There was a steady stream of crime reports. For not the American people. example, in 2008 the government took $165 billion Producing nothing while enriching themselves in taxpayer money and doled it out to nine of the with grotesque bonuses, they engineered the loss largest banks that had lost $81 billion in reckless of $40 trillion of global wealth. Rather than being business practices. portrayed as a group of fast talking money grubbers, Celebrating those staggering losses, the bank they were fawned over and flattered. bandits rewarded themselves by skimming off The names — Summers, Dimon, Thain, Weill, some $33 billion for bonuses and executive com- Blankfein, Rubin, Mack — were among those rarely pensation. spoken without an appropriate introductory hon- “Nothing we did was for them [the banks],” orific: “brilliant,” occasionally “brilliant-brilliant,” said US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. sometimes “financial genius” and all credited with Of course not! What diseased mind would think “storied careers.” Storied careers … lifetimes of deal that the hundreds of billions given to the banks was making, inside trades, market manipulation, influ- done to help the banks? It was all done for the good ence peddling and sucking their way up to the top. of the American people. They were the role models MBAs were enjoined to Crime fact was far more lurid than crime fic- emulate. tion. The stories came and the stories went. The The rationale for their fat bonuses and prince- mainstream media would report the incidents in ly compensation, despite proven roles in engineer- dispassionate language for a day or two, providing ing the worst financial crisis since the Great De- no platform for dissenters. Invariably, they bowed pression, was best summarized by Edward Liddy, to the authority of Mr. President and Mr. Fed Chair- the former Goldman Sachs board member over- man and deferred to the expertise and opinions of seeing the newly government controlled insurance PhD mouthpieces and enablers. giant A.I.G. “We cannot attract and retain the best But as the financial systems continued to dis- and the brightest talent to lead and staff the A.I.G. integrate and the economy continued to crumble, at businesses … if employees believe their compen- long last the general public understood that next to sation is subject to continued and arbitrary adjust- nothing was being done for its “good.” ment by the U.S. Treasury.”

22 The Trends Journal • Autumn 2009 OPENING SHOTS conservative fringe elements and right wing nuts. The 2nd American Revolution had begun. The (See Trend Alert®: “The ‘Second American Revolu- April 15 tea parties and tax protests, the Fourth tion’ Has Begun,” 12 August 2009.) of July rallies, the summer Town Hall healthcare reform confrontations, and the 9/12 March on BRING IN THE CLOWNS Washington protesting big government were open- In those early stages, a handful of broadcast ideo- ing shots. logues seized upon the unrest both as a cause célè- Successive political regimes had been abrogat- bre and a ratings booster. For eight years they were ing constitutional rights and encroaching upon per- cheerleaders for George W. Bush’s wars, tax cuts for sonal freedoms for decades. The trend flourished the rich, abrogation of the Constitution, bailouts, under Bill Clinton, accelerated under George W. TARP, financial deregulation, cheap money and big Bush and was sent into orbit by Barack Obama. government policies that hastened America’s de- Decades of Executive Orders, unchallenge- cline. able magisterial edicts issued from the Presidential Now, hypocrites to a man, they blamed the na- throne and laws such as the notorious Patriot Act tion’s ills on President Obama. Never for a moment deprived American citizens of basic rights, person- acknowledging Obama was implementing most of al freedoms … and without them even noticing it, those Bush policies they had once so ardently sup- their dignity. They had become slaves and serfs of ported (TARP, bailouts, increased defense budget, the State, owned and indentured with absolutely no rendition, torture, the Patriot Act), they whipped say in how the affairs of State were conducted. up their fans into an anti-Obama frenzy. Foment- Those assaults upon time-honored American ing chaos and deflecting the revolution from its real freedoms were more matters of the mind and heart. source and strength, the loudest mouths in broad- The latest attacks hit the pocketbook. The banks casting would temporarily hijack the anger as a were shaking down the people for every last dime means to inflate their own stature as patriots and and politicians were passing laws that made rob- potential political leaders. bery legal. When the Mafia exacted 12 percent in- And why not? As vocal champions of conser- terest on loans, the government would crack down vative values they were filling a leadership void at on the criminals for loan sharking. When the banks the top. So weak was Republican leadership that charged up to 30 percent on credit cards, it was in polls, talk-jock Rush Limbaugh garnered more called the cost of doing business. votes than any politician as “the main person speaking for the party.” There were notable precedents for Hijacking Looking back from 2012, historical B-grade actors occupying the White House and the engineering will have settled upon one or another State House. It happened before and it could hap- “Archduke Ferdinand” moment as the Revolution pen again. flash point. The reality was that World War I didn’t In 2010, it was no longer possible to lay the begin with, nor was it caused by the assassination of unrest on rabble-rousing fringe elements. The re- the Archduke. It was much more complicated than ality of the “Greatest Depression” began to set in. that. The pretend-recovery of 2009 was unmasked as the So too with The 2nd American Revolution. cover up we said it was. As the protests grew louder, What caused it and why will be reduced by estab- the clampdowns grew harsher. lishment historians to a few convenient oversimpli- In September 2009, a sneak preview of what fications. They would concoct a starting point- al was to come was aired in Pittsburgh, PA, the site lowing them to distort the facts and attribute the of the biannual G-20 meeting of finance ministers, revolution to scapegoats of choice. central bank governors, and leaders of the world’s In 2009, there was as yet no talk of revolution, 20 largest economies. though the opening shots, in the form of protests From air, land and sea, thousands of city, and rallies, had in fact been fired. Instead, the me- county and state police — commanded by the Se- dia and White House blamed the demonstrations on cret Service, reinforced by the National Guard, and

The Trends Journal • Autumn 2009 23 a Coast Guard flotilla — converged upon Pittsburgh to protect them. The city was cordoned off and closed down. Offices and shops were shut, traffic prohibited … wages and sales lost. Red terror alert precautions and martial law measures were taken in anticipation of protesters opposed to G-20 goals of globalization, a single currency, and a one-world-corporate-controlled government. The corporate-controlled media reported and showed mostly peaceful protest marchers, outnum- bered by heavily equipped anti-riot forces. The uncontrolled Internet media reported and Getty Images showed mostly peaceful protest marchers and inno- opposition, big or small. The mildest of disruptions cent bystanders harassed, corralled, shoved, dragged would be stamped out with the fury and vengeance and beaten. What had been censored by the main appropriate to putting down mob rule. stream press was all over YouTube for the world to There would be anti-government forces bent see: uniformed baton-wielding Mutant Ninja Tur- on fighting power with power. They made a lot of tles, wrapped in enough body armor to walk un- noise, got a lot of press and served as convenient scathed through the Battle of the Bulge, stormed symbols of the Revolution. And just as a handful of college dorms bludgeoning co-eds. masked radicals smashing windows and overturn- What had happened in Pittsburgh would hap- ing cars (government plants or actual anarchists) pen around the world. It was an early skirmish in are used by the press to discredit larger causes, so what would be an extended battle between the too would this handful of armed quixotic militia be ruling Kings of Commerce and the Man on the used to denigrate the patriotic ideals behind the Street. Governments would topple, regimes would mounting revolutionary resistance. fall, blood would flow and heads would roll. Some The government response in Pittsburgh revolutions would be violent, others velvet … there should have been enough to convince anyone of were ample historical precedents for both. the futility of imagining that armed citizens could The massed military might and crippling new prevail against Federal firepower. Violent confron- riot control weaponry (LRAD ear-splitting sound tations would not only fail, they would sabotage cannons) tested on guinea pig protestors in Pitts- the principles and ideals of The 2nd American burgh was a harbinger of how the government would Revolution. For the Renaissance to flower and the respond to public pressure, civil disobedience, and Revolution to succeed, it had to be fought with any challenge to its authority. They would brook no minds, not guns. n

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