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Examining the Relationships Between Anomalistic Belief, Reasoning, and Cognitive Bias

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Examining the Relationships Between Anomalistic Belief, Reasoning, and Cognitive Bias Was that just a Strange Coincidence or am I Psychic? Examining the Relationships Between Anomalistic Belief, Reasoning, and Cognitive Bias by Toby Prike Thesis Submitted to Flinders University for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy College of Education, Psychology and Social Work 23 November 2018 2 Table of Contents Summary ................................................................................................................... 5 Declaration ................................................................................................................ 7 Acknowledgements ................................................................................................... 8 List of Manuscripts and Publications ........................................................................ 9 List of Tables ........................................................................................................... 10 List of Figures ......................................................................................................... 12 Chapter 1: General Introduction ..................................................................................... 13 Anomalistic Beliefs ................................................................................................. 14 Prevalence of Anomalistic Beliefs and Experiences ............................................... 16 Anomalistic Psychology ......................................................................................... 17 Cognition and Anomalistic Belief ........................................................................... 20 Thesis Aims and Overview ..................................................................................... 24 Chapter 2: Psychics, Aliens, or Experience? Using the Anomalistic Belief Scale to Examine the Relationship Between Type of Belief and Probabilistic Reasoning .......... 30 Abstract ................................................................................................................... 31 Psychics, Aliens, or Experience? Using the Anomalistic Belief Scale to Examine the Relationship Between Type of Belief and Probabilistic Reasoning.................. 32 Method .................................................................................................................... 40 Results ..................................................................................................................... 45 Discussion ............................................................................................................... 60 3 Chapter 3: The Relationship Between Anomalistic Belief, Misperception of Chance, and the Base Rate Fallacy............................................................................................... 66 Abstract ................................................................................................................... 67 The Relationship Between Anomalistic Belief, Misperception of Chance, and the Base Rate Fallacy .................................................................................................... 68 Method .................................................................................................................... 76 Results ..................................................................................................................... 80 Discussion ............................................................................................................... 92 Chapter 4: The Relationship Between Anomalistic Belief and Biases of Evidence Integration and Jumping to Conclusions ........................................................................ 99 Abstract ................................................................................................................. 100 The Relationship Between Anomalistic Belief and Biases of Evidence Integration and Jumping to Conclusions ................................................................................. 101 Method .................................................................................................................. 107 Results ................................................................................................................... 114 Discussion ............................................................................................................. 127 Chapter 5: Understanding the News: The Relationship Between Anomalistic Belief, Political Belief, Thinking Style, and the Interpretation of News Articles .................... 132 Abstract ................................................................................................................. 133 Understanding the News: The Relationship Between Anomalistic Belief, Political Belief, Thinking Style, and the Interpretation of News Articles ........................... 134 Method .................................................................................................................. 140 4 Results ................................................................................................................... 145 Discussion ............................................................................................................. 154 Chapter 6: What Do Non-Evidence Based Beliefs Have in Common? Examining the Potential Underlying Role of Evidence Integration Biases and Thinking Style .......... 163 Abstract ................................................................................................................. 164 Relationships Between Non-Evidence Based Beliefs: Examining the Potential Underlying Role of Evidence Integration Biases and Thinking Style .................. 165 Method .................................................................................................................. 170 Results ................................................................................................................... 175 Discussion ............................................................................................................. 182 Chapter 7: General Discussion ..................................................................................... 189 Theories of Belief ................................................................................................. 190 Experiential Versus Theoretical Distinction ......................................................... 198 The Role of Causation .......................................................................................... 202 Conclusion ............................................................................................................ 205 References .................................................................................................................... 207 Appendix A ................................................................................................................... 240 Appendix B ................................................................................................................... 245 Appendix C ................................................................................................................... 251 Appendix D .................................................................................................................. 261 Appendix E ................................................................................................................... 268 5 Summary Anomalistic beliefs are commonly held throughout the general population despite being unsupported by scientific evidence (Chapman University 2017; Moore, 2005; Shannon- Missal, 2013). Therefore, it is important for psychologists to explain how and why people come to endorse anomalistic beliefs despite the lack of solid evidence to support them. Chapter 2 outlines the development of the Anomalistic Belief Scale (ABS), which was designed with a specific focus on the distinction between theoretical and experiential anomalistic beliefs. Factor analysis of the ABS supported the theoretical/experiential distinction, with a factor found that covered belief in both paranormal and extra-terrestrial experiences (experiential factor) as well as three separate for different belief types factors; one for theoretical paranormal beliefs (PSI factor), one for theoretical extra-terrestrial beliefs (ET factor), and one for experiential and theoretical life after death beliefs (LAD factor). Chapter 2 also examined the relationship between anomalistic beliefs and the conjunction fallacy and in Chapter 3 the relationships between anomalistic beliefs and both misperception of chance and the base rate fallacy were examined. The results for Chapters 2 and 3 showed that although overall anomalistic belief was related to poorer probabilistic reasoning, only the experiential factor of the ABS was related to poorer performance for both the conjunction fallacy and misperception of chance. Results for the base rate fallacy showed a relationship with overall anomalistic belief but no individual ABS factor was a unique predictor. Chapters 4, 5, and 6 shifted the focus from probabilistic reasoning to the relationship between anomalistic belief and cognitive bias. In Chapter 4, biases against disconfirmatory evidence (BADE), biases against confirmatory evidence (BACE), liberal acceptance, and jumping to conclusions (JTC) were examined. The results showed that BADE, BACE, and liberal acceptance were positively correlated with anomalistic belief, however, only liberal acceptance uniquely predicted anomalistic belief. None
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