The Status Quo Bias and Decisions to Withdraw Life-Sustaining Treatment
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Ambiguity Seeking As a Result of the Status Quo Bias
Ambiguity Seeking as a Result of the Status Quo Bias Mercè Roca 1, Robin M. Hogarth 2, A. John Maule 3 1ESRC Postgraduate Researcher, Centre for Decision Research, Leeds University Business School, The University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom 2ICREA Research Professor, Departament d’Economia i Empresa, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Ramon Trias Fargas, 08005, Barcelona, Spain 3Professor, Centre for Decision Research, Leeds University Business School, The University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom Contact details: Mercè Roca, [email protected] , Telephone: (0044)07709557423. Leeds University Business School, Maurice Keyworth Building. The University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom * Funds for the experiments were provided by the Centre for Decision Research of Leeds University Business School. The authors are grateful for the comments received from Gaëlle Villejoubert, Albert Satorra and Peter Wakker. This paper was presented at SPUDM20 in Stockholm. 1 Abstract Several factors affect attitudes toward ambiguity. What happens, however, when people are asked to exchange an ambiguous alternative in their possession for an unambiguous one? We present three experiments in which individuals preferred to retain the former. This status quo bias emerged both within- and between-subjects, with and without incentives, with different outcome distributions, and with endowments determined by both the experimenter and the participants themselves. Findings emphasize the need to account for the frames of reference under which evaluations of probabilistic information take place as well as modifications that should be incorporated into descriptive models of decision making. Keywords Ambiguity, risk, status quo bias, decision making, uncertainty. JEL code: C91, D81. 2 The phenomenon of ambiguity aversion – or the preference for gambles with known as opposed to unknown probabilities – has been well documented in the literature on decision making in both psychology and economics (see, e.g., Ellsberg, 1961; Camerer & Weber, 1992; Keren & Gerritsen, 1999). -
A Task-Based Taxonomy of Cognitive Biases for Information Visualization
A Task-based Taxonomy of Cognitive Biases for Information Visualization Evanthia Dimara, Steven Franconeri, Catherine Plaisant, Anastasia Bezerianos, and Pierre Dragicevic Three kinds of limitations The Computer The Display 2 Three kinds of limitations The Computer The Display The Human 3 Three kinds of limitations: humans • Human vision ️ has limitations • Human reasoning 易 has limitations The Human 4 ️Perceptual bias Magnitude estimation 5 ️Perceptual bias Magnitude estimation Color perception 6 易 Cognitive bias Behaviors when humans consistently behave irrationally Pohl’s criteria distilled: • Are predictable and consistent • People are unaware they’re doing them • Are not misunderstandings 7 Ambiguity effect, Anchoring or focalism, Anthropocentric thinking, Anthropomorphism or personification, Attentional bias, Attribute substitution, Automation bias, Availability heuristic, Availability cascade, Backfire effect, Bandwagon effect, Base rate fallacy or Base rate neglect, Belief bias, Ben Franklin effect, Berkson's paradox, Bias blind spot, Choice-supportive bias, Clustering illusion, Compassion fade, Confirmation bias, Congruence bias, Conjunction fallacy, Conservatism (belief revision), Continued influence effect, Contrast effect, Courtesy bias, Curse of knowledge, Declinism, Decoy effect, Default effect, Denomination effect, Disposition effect, Distinction bias, Dread aversion, Dunning–Kruger effect, Duration neglect, Empathy gap, End-of-history illusion, Endowment effect, Exaggerated expectation, Experimenter's or expectation bias, -
Cognitive Bias Mitigation: How to Make Decision-Making More Rational?
Cognitive Bias Mitigation: How to make decision-making more rational? Abstract Cognitive biases distort judgement and adversely impact decision-making, which results in economic inefficiencies. Initial attempts to mitigate these biases met with little success. However, recent studies which used computer games and educational videos to train people to avoid biases (Clegg et al., 2014; Morewedge et al., 2015) showed that this form of training reduced selected cognitive biases by 30 %. In this work I report results of an experiment which investigated the debiasing effects of training on confirmation bias. The debiasing training took the form of a short video which contained information about confirmation bias, its impact on judgement, and mitigation strategies. The results show that participants exhibited confirmation bias both in the selection and processing of information, and that debiasing training effectively decreased the level of confirmation bias by 33 % at the 5% significance level. Key words: Behavioural economics, cognitive bias, confirmation bias, cognitive bias mitigation, confirmation bias mitigation, debiasing JEL classification: D03, D81, Y80 1 Introduction Empirical research has documented a panoply of cognitive biases which impair human judgement and make people depart systematically from models of rational behaviour (Gilovich et al., 2002; Kahneman, 2011; Kahneman & Tversky, 1979; Pohl, 2004). Besides distorted decision-making and judgement in the areas of medicine, law, and military (Nickerson, 1998), cognitive biases can also lead to economic inefficiencies. Slovic et al. (1977) point out how they distort insurance purchases, Hyman Minsky (1982) partly blames psychological factors for economic cycles. Shefrin (2010) argues that confirmation bias and some other cognitive biases were among the significant factors leading to the global financial crisis which broke out in 2008. -
A Dissertation Entitled Exploring Common Antecedents of Three Related Decision Biases by Jonathan E. Westfall Submitted As Parti
A Dissertation Entitled Exploring Common Antecedents of Three Related Decision Biases by Jonathan E. Westfall Submitted as partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Doctor of Philosophy in Psychology __________________________ Advisor: Dr. J. D. Jasper __________________________ Dr. S. D. Christman __________________________ Dr. R. E. Heffner __________________________ Dr. K. L. London __________________________ Dr. M. E. Doherty __________________________ Graduate School The University of Toledo August 2009 Exploring Common Antecedents ii Copyright © 2009 – Jonathan E. Westfall This document is copyrighted material. Under copyright law, no parts of this document may be reproduced in any manner without the expressed written permission of the author. Exploring Common Antecedents iii An Abstract of Exploring Common Antecedents of Three Related Decision Biases Jonathan E. Westfall Submitted as partial fulfillment of the requirements for The Doctor of Philosophy in Psychology The University of Toledo August 2009 “Decision making inertia” is a term loosely used to describe the similar nature of a variety of decision making biases that predominantly favor a decision to maintain one course of action over switching to a new course. Three of these biases, the sunk cost effect, status-quo bias, and inaction inertia are discussed here. Combining earlier work on strength of handedness and the sunk cost effect along with new findings regarding counterfactual thought, this work principally seeks to determine if counterfactual thought may drive the three decision biases of note while also analyzing common relationships between the biases, strength of handedness, and the variables of regret and loss aversion. Over a series of experiments, it was found that handedness differences did exist in the three biases discussed, that amount and type of counterfactuals generated did not predict choice within the status-quo bias, and that the remaining variables potentially thought to drive the biases presented did not link causally to them. -
1. Service Evaluations and Qualitative Research
EAHP Academy Seminars 20 - 21 September 2019 Brussels #ACASEM2019 EAHP Academy Seminars 20-21 September 2019 Introduction to service evaluation and qualitative research Jonathan Underhill, NICE and Keele University, UK Ulrika Gillespie Uppsala University Hospital, Sweden Conflicts of interest • No conflicts of interest to declare Introduction • Understanding how humans make decisions and its impact on: – Communicating findings – Conducting research • Answering questions using qualitative and quantitative studies Introduction • Understanding how humans make decisions and its impact on: – Communicating findings – Conducting research • Answering questions using qualitative and quantitative studies What do we know about how people make decisions? • Behavioural economics and cognitive psychology: – Bounded rationality (Herbert Simon 1978) – Dual process theory (Daniel Kahneman 2002) – Most decisions are informed by brief reading and talking to other people - please find a piece of paper and a pen - a list of words follows look at them once, do not re-read them - when you have read the list close your eyes Flange Routemaster Laggard Sausages Automaton Approach Antichrist Research Slipper Haggle Fridge Locomotive Bracket Confused Telesales Professor Stool pigeon Hale Banquet Irrelevance Write down as many words as you can remember Flange How many words Routemaster A that you remembered Laggard are in each group? Sausages Automaton Approach B Antichrist Research Slipper Haggle C Fridge Locomotive Bracket Confused D Telesales Professor Stool pigeon Hale E Banquet Irrelevance Herbert Simon 1978 Economics Bounded rationality Satisfycing Please list all the medicines which have a potential interaction with warfarin – both increasing and decreasing its effect Drug interactions with warfarin – decreased effect • Amobarbital • Primidone Butabarbital Ribavirin Carbamazepine Rifabutin Cholestyramine Rifampin Dicloxacillin Secobarbital Griseofulvin Sucralfate Mercaptopurine Vitamin K Mesalamine Coenzyme Q10 Nafcillin Ginseng Phenobarbital St. -
Immersive High Fidelity Simulation of Critically Ill Patients to Study Cognitive Errors
Prakash et al. BMC Medical Education (2017) 17:36 DOI 10.1186/s12909-017-0871-x RESEARCHARTICLE Open Access Immersive high fidelity simulation of critically ill patients to study cognitive errors: a pilot study Shivesh Prakash1,2*, Shailesh Bihari2, Penelope Need3, Cyle Sprick4 and Lambert Schuwirth1,5 Abstract Background: The majority of human errors in healthcare originate from cognitive errors or biases. There is dearth of evidence around relative prevalence and significance of various cognitive errors amongst doctors in their first post-graduate year. This study was conducted with the objective of using high fidelity clinical simulation as a tool to study the relative occurrence of selected cognitive errors amongst doctors in their first post-graduate year. Methods: Intern simulation sessions on acute clinical problems, conducted in year 2014, were reviewed by two independent assessors with expertise in critical care. The occurrence of cognitive errors was identified using Likert scale based questionnaire and think-aloud technique. Teamwork and leadership skills were assessed using Ottawa Global Rating Scale. Results: The most prevalent cognitive errors included search satisfying (90%), followed by premature closure (PC) (78.6%), and anchoring (75.7%). The odds of occurrence of various cognitive errors did not change with time during internship, in contrast to teamwork and leadership skills (x2 = 11.9, P = 0.01). Anchoring appeared to be significantly associated with delay in diagnoses (P = 0.007) and occurrence of PC (P = 0.005). There was a negative association between occurrence of confirmation bias and the ability to make correct diagnosis (P = 0.05). Conclusions: Our study demonstrated a high prevalence of anchoring, premature closure, and search satisfying amongst doctors in their first post-graduate year, using high fidelity simulation as a tool. -
Working Memory, Cognitive Miserliness and Logic As Predictors of Performance on the Cognitive Reflection Test
Working Memory, Cognitive Miserliness and Logic as Predictors of Performance on the Cognitive Reflection Test Edward J. N. Stupple ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Maggie Gale ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Christopher R. Richmond ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Abstract Most participants respond that the answer is 10 cents; however, a slower and more analytic approach to the The Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) was devised to measure problem reveals the correct answer to be 5 cents. the inhibition of heuristic responses to favour analytic ones. The CRT has been a spectacular success, attracting more Toplak, West and Stanovich (2011) demonstrated that the than 100 citations in 2012 alone (Scopus). This may be in CRT was a powerful predictor of heuristics and biases task part due to the ease of administration; with only three items performance - proposing it as a metric of the cognitive miserliness central to dual process theories of thinking. This and no requirement for expensive equipment, the practical thesis was examined using reasoning response-times, advantages are considerable. There have, moreover, been normative responses from two reasoning tasks and working numerous correlates of the CRT demonstrated, from a wide memory capacity (WMC) to predict individual differences in range of tasks in the heuristics and biases literature (Toplak performance on the CRT. These data offered limited support et al., 2011) to risk aversion and SAT scores (Frederick, for the view of miserliness as the primary factor in the CRT. -
Cognitive Bias in Emissions Trading
sustainability Article Cognitive Bias in Emissions Trading Jae-Do Song 1 and Young-Hwan Ahn 2,* 1 College of Business Administration, Chonnam National University, Gwangju 61186, Korea; [email protected] 2 Korea Energy Economics Institute, 405-11 Jongga-ro, Jung-gu, Ulsan 44543, Korea * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +82-52-714-2175; Fax: +82-52-714-2026 Received: 8 February 2019; Accepted: 27 February 2019; Published: 5 March 2019 Abstract: This study investigates whether cognitive biases such as the endowment effect and status quo bias occur in emissions trading. Such cognitive biases can serve as a barrier to trade. This study’s survey-based experiments, which include hypothetical emissions trading scenarios, show that the endowment effect does occur in emissions trading. The status quo bias occurs in only one of the three experiments. This study also investigates whether accumulation of experience can reduce cognitive bias as discovered preference hypothesis expects. The results indicate that practitioners who are supposed to have more experience show no evidence of having less cognitive bias. Contrary to the conventional expectation, the practitioners show significantly higher level of endowment effect than students and only the practitioners show a significant status quo bias. A consignment auction situation, which is used in California’s cap-and-trade program, is also tested; no significant difference between general permission trading and consignment auctions is found. Keywords: emissions trading; cognitive bias; consignment auction; climate policy 1. Introduction Emissions trading allows entities to achieve emission reduction targets in a cost-effective way through buying and selling emission allowances in emissions trading markets [1,2]. -
Communication Science to the Public
David M. Berube North Carolina State University ▪ HOW WE COMMUNICATE. In The Age of American Unreason, Jacoby posited that it trickled down from the top, fueled by faux-populist politicians striving to make themselves sound approachable rather than smart. (Jacoby, 2008). EX: The average length of a sound bite by a presidential candidate in 1968 was 42.3 seconds. Two decades later, it was 9.8 seconds. Today, it’s just a touch over seven seconds and well on its way to being supplanted by 140/280- character Twitter bursts. ▪ DATA FRAMING. ▪ When asked if they truly believe what scientists tell them, NEW ANTI- only 36 percent of respondents said yes. Just 12 percent expressed strong confidence in the press to accurately INTELLECTUALISM: report scientific findings. ▪ ROLE OF THE PUBLIC. A study by two Princeton University researchers, Martin TRENDS Gilens and Benjamin Page, released Fall 2014, tracked 1,800 U.S. policy changes between 1981 and 2002, and compared the outcome with the expressed preferences of median- income Americans, the affluent, business interests and powerful lobbies. They concluded that average citizens “have little or no independent influence” on policy in the U.S., while the rich and their hired mouthpieces routinely get their way. “The majority does not rule,” they wrote. ▪ Anti-intellectualism and suspicion (trends). ▪ Trump world – outsiders/insiders. ▪ Erasing/re-writing history – damnatio memoriae. ▪ False news. ▪ Infoxication (CC) and infobesity. ▪ Aggregators and managed reality. ▪ Affirmation and confirmation bias. ▪ Negotiating reality. ▪ New tribalism is mostly ideational not political. ▪ Unspoken – guns, birth control, sexual harassment, race… “The amount of technical information is doubling every two years. -
Emotional Reasoning and Parent-Based Reasoning in Normal Children
Morren, M., Muris, P., Kindt, M. Emotional reasoning and parent-based reasoning in normal children. Child Psychiatry and Human Development: 35, 2004, nr. 1, p. 3-20 Postprint Version 1.0 Journal website http://www.springerlink.com/content/105587/ Pubmed link http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=pubmed&dop t=Abstract&list_uids=15626322&query_hl=45&itool=pubmed_docsum DOI 10.1023/B:CHUD.0000039317.50547.e3 Address correspondence to M. Morren, Department of Medical, Clinical, and Experimental Psychology, Maastricht University, P.O. Box 616, 6200 MD Maastricht, The Netherlands; e-mail: [email protected]. Emotional Reasoning and Parent-based Reasoning in Normal Children MATTIJN MORREN, MSC; PETER MURIS, PHD; MEREL KINDT, PHD DEPARTMENT OF MEDICAL, CLINICAL AND EXPERIMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY, MAASTRICHT UNIVERSITY, THE NETHERLANDS ABSTRACT: A previous study by Muris, Merckelbach, and Van Spauwen1 demonstrated that children display emotional reasoning irrespective of their anxiety levels. That is, when estimating whether a situation is dangerous, children not only rely on objective danger information but also on their own anxiety-response. The present study further examined emotional reasoning in children aged 7–13 years (N =508). In addition, it was investigated whether children also show parent-based reasoning, which can be defined as the tendency to rely on anxiety-responses that can be observed in parents. Children completed self-report questionnaires of anxiety, depression, and emotional and parent-based reasoning. Evidence was found for both emotional and parent-based reasoning effects. More specifically, children’s danger ratings were not only affected by objective danger information, but also by anxiety-response information in both objective danger and safety stories. -
Dunning–Kruger Effect - Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopedia
Dunning–Kruger effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect Dunning–Kruger effect From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes.[1] Actual competence may weaken self-confidence, as competent individuals may falsely assume that others have an equivalent understanding. David Dunning and Justin Kruger of Cornell University conclude, "the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others".[2] Contents 1 Proposal 2 Supporting studies 3 Awards 4 Historical references 5 See also 6 References Proposal The phenomenon was first tested in a series of experiments published in 1999 by David Dunning and Justin Kruger of the Department of Psychology, Cornell University.[2][3] They noted earlier studies suggesting that ignorance of standards of performance is behind a great deal of incompetence. This pattern was seen in studies of skills as diverse as reading comprehension, operating a motor vehicle, and playing chess or tennis. Dunning and Kruger proposed that, for a given skill, incompetent people will: 1. tend to overestimate their own level of skill; 2. fail to recognize genuine skill in others; 3. fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy; 4. recognize and acknowledge their own previous lack of skill, if they are exposed to training for that skill. Dunning has since drawn an analogy ("the anosognosia of everyday life")[1][4] with a condition in which a person who suffers a physical disability because of brain injury seems unaware of or denies the existence of the disability, even for dramatic impairments such as blindness or paralysis. -
Observational Studies and Bias in Epidemiology
The Young Epidemiology Scholars Program (YES) is supported by The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and administered by the College Board. Observational Studies and Bias in Epidemiology Manuel Bayona Department of Epidemiology School of Public Health University of North Texas Fort Worth, Texas and Chris Olsen Mathematics Department George Washington High School Cedar Rapids, Iowa Observational Studies and Bias in Epidemiology Contents Lesson Plan . 3 The Logic of Inference in Science . 8 The Logic of Observational Studies and the Problem of Bias . 15 Characteristics of the Relative Risk When Random Sampling . and Not . 19 Types of Bias . 20 Selection Bias . 21 Information Bias . 23 Conclusion . 24 Take-Home, Open-Book Quiz (Student Version) . 25 Take-Home, Open-Book Quiz (Teacher’s Answer Key) . 27 In-Class Exercise (Student Version) . 30 In-Class Exercise (Teacher’s Answer Key) . 32 Bias in Epidemiologic Research (Examination) (Student Version) . 33 Bias in Epidemiologic Research (Examination with Answers) (Teacher’s Answer Key) . 35 Copyright © 2004 by College Entrance Examination Board. All rights reserved. College Board, SAT and the acorn logo are registered trademarks of the College Entrance Examination Board. Other products and services may be trademarks of their respective owners. Visit College Board on the Web: www.collegeboard.com. Copyright © 2004. All rights reserved. 2 Observational Studies and Bias in Epidemiology Lesson Plan TITLE: Observational Studies and Bias in Epidemiology SUBJECT AREA: Biology, mathematics, statistics, environmental and health sciences GOAL: To identify and appreciate the effects of bias in epidemiologic research OBJECTIVES: 1. Introduce students to the principles and methods for interpreting the results of epidemio- logic research and bias 2.