Graphical Techniques in Debiasing: an Exploratory Study
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Conjunction Fallacy' Revisited: How Intelligent Inferences Look Like Reasoning Errors
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making J. Behav. Dec. Making, 12: 275±305 (1999) The `Conjunction Fallacy' Revisited: How Intelligent Inferences Look Like Reasoning Errors RALPH HERTWIG* and GERD GIGERENZER Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany ABSTRACT Findings in recent research on the `conjunction fallacy' have been taken as evid- ence that our minds are not designed to work by the rules of probability. This conclusion springs from the idea that norms should be content-blind Ð in the present case, the assumption that sound reasoning requires following the con- junction rule of probability theory. But content-blind norms overlook some of the intelligent ways in which humans deal with uncertainty, for instance, when drawing semantic and pragmatic inferences. In a series of studies, we ®rst show that people infer nonmathematical meanings of the polysemous term `probability' in the classic Linda conjunction problem. We then demonstrate that one can design contexts in which people infer mathematical meanings of the term and are therefore more likely to conform to the conjunction rule. Finally, we report evidence that the term `frequency' narrows the spectrum of possible interpreta- tions of `probability' down to its mathematical meanings, and that this fact Ð rather than the presence or absence of `extensional cues' Ð accounts for the low proportion of violations of the conjunction rule when people are asked for frequency judgments. We conclude that a failure to recognize the human capacity for semantic and pragmatic inference can lead rational responses to be misclassi®ed as fallacies. Copyright # 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. KEY WORDS conjunction fallacy; probabalistic thinking; frequentistic thinking; probability People's apparent failures to reason probabilistically in experimental contexts have raised serious concerns about our ability to reason rationally in real-world environments. -
A Task-Based Taxonomy of Cognitive Biases for Information Visualization
A Task-based Taxonomy of Cognitive Biases for Information Visualization Evanthia Dimara, Steven Franconeri, Catherine Plaisant, Anastasia Bezerianos, and Pierre Dragicevic Three kinds of limitations The Computer The Display 2 Three kinds of limitations The Computer The Display The Human 3 Three kinds of limitations: humans • Human vision ️ has limitations • Human reasoning 易 has limitations The Human 4 ️Perceptual bias Magnitude estimation 5 ️Perceptual bias Magnitude estimation Color perception 6 易 Cognitive bias Behaviors when humans consistently behave irrationally Pohl’s criteria distilled: • Are predictable and consistent • People are unaware they’re doing them • Are not misunderstandings 7 Ambiguity effect, Anchoring or focalism, Anthropocentric thinking, Anthropomorphism or personification, Attentional bias, Attribute substitution, Automation bias, Availability heuristic, Availability cascade, Backfire effect, Bandwagon effect, Base rate fallacy or Base rate neglect, Belief bias, Ben Franklin effect, Berkson's paradox, Bias blind spot, Choice-supportive bias, Clustering illusion, Compassion fade, Confirmation bias, Congruence bias, Conjunction fallacy, Conservatism (belief revision), Continued influence effect, Contrast effect, Courtesy bias, Curse of knowledge, Declinism, Decoy effect, Default effect, Denomination effect, Disposition effect, Distinction bias, Dread aversion, Dunning–Kruger effect, Duration neglect, Empathy gap, End-of-history illusion, Endowment effect, Exaggerated expectation, Experimenter's or expectation bias, -
Avoiding the Conjunction Fallacy: Who Can Take a Hint?
Avoiding the conjunction fallacy: Who can take a hint? Simon Klein Spring 2017 Master’s thesis, 30 ECTS Master’s programme in Cognitive Science, 120 ECTS Supervisor: Linnea Karlsson Wirebring Acknowledgments: The author would like to thank the participants for enduring the test session with challenging questions and thereby making the study possible, his supervisor Linnea Karlsson Wirebring for invaluable guidance and good questions during the thesis work, and his fiancée Amanda Arnö for much needed mental support during the entire process. 2 AVOIDING THE CONJUNCTION FALLACY: WHO CAN TAKE A HINT? Simon Klein Humans repeatedly commit the so called “conjunction fallacy”, erroneously judging the probability of two events occurring together as higher than the probability of one of the events. Certain hints have been shown to mitigate this tendency. The present thesis investigated the relations between three psychological factors and performance on conjunction tasks after reading such a hint. The factors represent the understanding of probability and statistics (statistical numeracy), the ability to resist intuitive but incorrect conclusions (cognitive reflection), and the willingness to engage in, and enjoyment of, analytical thinking (need-for-cognition). Participants (n = 50) answered 30 short conjunction tasks and three psychological scales. A bimodal response distribution motivated dichotomization of performance scores. Need-for-cognition was significantly, positively correlated with performance, while numeracy and cognitive reflection were not. The results suggest that the willingness to engage in, and enjoyment of, analytical thinking plays an important role for the capacity to avoid the conjunction fallacy after taking a hint. The hint further seems to neutralize differences in performance otherwise predicted by statistical numeracy and cognitive reflection. -
Cognitive Bias Mitigation: How to Make Decision-Making More Rational?
Cognitive Bias Mitigation: How to make decision-making more rational? Abstract Cognitive biases distort judgement and adversely impact decision-making, which results in economic inefficiencies. Initial attempts to mitigate these biases met with little success. However, recent studies which used computer games and educational videos to train people to avoid biases (Clegg et al., 2014; Morewedge et al., 2015) showed that this form of training reduced selected cognitive biases by 30 %. In this work I report results of an experiment which investigated the debiasing effects of training on confirmation bias. The debiasing training took the form of a short video which contained information about confirmation bias, its impact on judgement, and mitigation strategies. The results show that participants exhibited confirmation bias both in the selection and processing of information, and that debiasing training effectively decreased the level of confirmation bias by 33 % at the 5% significance level. Key words: Behavioural economics, cognitive bias, confirmation bias, cognitive bias mitigation, confirmation bias mitigation, debiasing JEL classification: D03, D81, Y80 1 Introduction Empirical research has documented a panoply of cognitive biases which impair human judgement and make people depart systematically from models of rational behaviour (Gilovich et al., 2002; Kahneman, 2011; Kahneman & Tversky, 1979; Pohl, 2004). Besides distorted decision-making and judgement in the areas of medicine, law, and military (Nickerson, 1998), cognitive biases can also lead to economic inefficiencies. Slovic et al. (1977) point out how they distort insurance purchases, Hyman Minsky (1982) partly blames psychological factors for economic cycles. Shefrin (2010) argues that confirmation bias and some other cognitive biases were among the significant factors leading to the global financial crisis which broke out in 2008. -
Thinking About the Ultimate Argument for Realism∗
Thinking About the Ultimate Argument for Realism∗ Stathis Psillos Department of Philosophy and History of Science University of Athens Panepistimioupolis (University Campus) Athens 15771 Greece [email protected] 1. Introduction Alan Musgrave has been one of the most passionate defenders of scientific realism. Most of his papers in this area are, by now, classics. The title of my paper alludes to Musgrave’s piece “The Ultimate Argument for Realism”, though the expression is Bas van Fraassen’s (1980, 39), and the argument is Hilary Putnam’s (1975, 73): realism “is the only philosophy of science that does not make the success of science a miracle”. Hence, the code-name ‘no-miracles’ argument (henceforth, NMA). In fact, NMA has quite a history and a variety of formulations. I have documented all this in my (1999, chapter 4). But, no matter how exactly the argument is formulated, its thrust is that the success of scientific theories lends credence to the following two theses: a) that scientific theories should be interpreted realistically and b) that, so interpreted, these theories are approximately true. The original authors of the argument, however, did not put an extra stress on novel predictions, which, as Musgrave (1988) makes plain, is the litmus test for the ability of any approach to science to explain the success of science. Here is why reference to novel predictions is crucial. Realistically understood, theories entail too many novel claims, most of them about unobservables (e.g., that ∗ I want to dedicate this paper to Alan Musgrave. His exceptional combination of clear-headed and profound philosophical thinking has been a model for me. -
Cognitive Biases in Economic Decisions – Three Essays on the Impact of Debiasing
TECHNISCHE UNIVERSITÄT MÜNCHEN Lehrstuhl für Betriebswirtschaftslehre – Strategie und Organisation Univ.-Prof. Dr. Isabell M. Welpe Cognitive biases in economic decisions – three essays on the impact of debiasing Christoph Martin Gerald Döbrich Abdruck der von der Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften der Technischen Universität München zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades eines Doktors der Wirtschaftswissenschaften (Dr. rer. pol.) genehmigten Dissertation. Vorsitzender: Univ.-Prof. Dr. Gunther Friedl Prüfer der Dissertation: 1. Univ.-Prof. Dr. Isabell M. Welpe 2. Univ.-Prof. Dr. Dr. Holger Patzelt Die Dissertation wurde am 28.11.2012 bei der Technischen Universität München eingereicht und durch die Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften am 15.12.2012 angenommen. Acknowledgments II Acknowledgments Numerous people have contributed to the development and successful completion of this dissertation. First of all, I would like to thank my supervisor Prof. Dr. Isabell M. Welpe for her continuous support, all the constructive discussions, and her enthusiasm concerning my dissertation project. Her challenging questions and new ideas always helped me to improve my work. My sincere thanks also go to Prof. Dr. Matthias Spörrle for his continuous support of my work and his valuable feedback for the articles building this dissertation. Moreover, I am grateful to Prof. Dr. Dr. Holger Patzelt for acting as the second advisor for this thesis and Professor Dr. Gunther Friedl for leading the examination board. This dissertation would not have been possible without the financial support of the Elite Network of Bavaria. I am very thankful for the financial support over two years which allowed me to pursue my studies in a focused and efficient manner. Many colleagues at the Chair for Strategy and Organization of Technische Universität München have supported me during the completion of this thesis. -
Working Memory, Cognitive Miserliness and Logic As Predictors of Performance on the Cognitive Reflection Test
Working Memory, Cognitive Miserliness and Logic as Predictors of Performance on the Cognitive Reflection Test Edward J. N. Stupple ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Maggie Gale ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Christopher R. Richmond ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Abstract Most participants respond that the answer is 10 cents; however, a slower and more analytic approach to the The Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) was devised to measure problem reveals the correct answer to be 5 cents. the inhibition of heuristic responses to favour analytic ones. The CRT has been a spectacular success, attracting more Toplak, West and Stanovich (2011) demonstrated that the than 100 citations in 2012 alone (Scopus). This may be in CRT was a powerful predictor of heuristics and biases task part due to the ease of administration; with only three items performance - proposing it as a metric of the cognitive miserliness central to dual process theories of thinking. This and no requirement for expensive equipment, the practical thesis was examined using reasoning response-times, advantages are considerable. There have, moreover, been normative responses from two reasoning tasks and working numerous correlates of the CRT demonstrated, from a wide memory capacity (WMC) to predict individual differences in range of tasks in the heuristics and biases literature (Toplak performance on the CRT. These data offered limited support et al., 2011) to risk aversion and SAT scores (Frederick, for the view of miserliness as the primary factor in the CRT. -
Zusammenfassung
Zusammenfassung Auf den folgenden beiden Seiten werden die zuvor detailliert darge- stellten 100 Fehler nochmals übersichtlich gruppiert und klassifiziert. Der kompakte Überblick soll Sie dabei unterstützen, die systemati- schen Fehler durch geeignete Maßnahmen möglichst zu verhindern beziehungsweise so zu reduzieren, dass sich keine allzu negativen Auswirkungen auf Ihr operatives Geschäft ergeben! Eine gezielte und strukturierte Auseinandersetzung mit den Fehler(kategorie)n kann Sie ganz allgemein dabei unterstützen, Ihr Unternehmen „resilienter“ und „antifragiler“ aufzustellen, das heißt, dass Sie von negativen Entwicklungen nicht sofort umgeworfen werden (können). Außerdem kann eine strukturierte Auseinander- setzung auch dabei helfen, sich für weitere, hier nicht explizit genannte – aber ähnliche – Fehler zu wappnen. © Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH, ein Teil von Springer Nature 2019 402 C. Glaser, Risiko im Management, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-25835-1 403 Zusammenfassung Zu viele Zu wenig Nicht ausreichend Informationen Informationsgehalt Zeit zur Verfügung Deshalb beachten wir Deshalb füllen wir die Deshalb nehmen wir häufig typischerweise nur… Lücken mit… an, dass… Veränderungen Mustern und bekannten wir Recht haben Außergewöhnliches Geschichten wir das schaffen können Wiederholungen Allgemeinheiten und das Naheliegendste auch Bekanntes/Anekdoten Stereotypen das Beste ist Bestätigungen vereinfachten wir beenden sollten, was Wahrscheinlichkeiten und wir angefangen haben Zahlen unsere Optionen einfacheren -
The Challenge of Debiasing Personnel Decisions: Avoiding Both Under- and Overcorrection
University of Pennsylvania ScholarlyCommons Management Papers Wharton Faculty Research 12-2008 The Challenge of Debiasing Personnel Decisions: Avoiding Both Under- and Overcorrection Philip E. Tetlock University of Pennsylvania Gregory Mitchell Terry L. Murray Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.upenn.edu/mgmt_papers Part of the Business Administration, Management, and Operations Commons Recommended Citation Tetlock, P. E., Mitchell, G., & Murray, T. L. (2008). The Challenge of Debiasing Personnel Decisions: Avoiding Both Under- and Overcorrection. Industrial and Organizational Psychology, 1 (4), 439-443. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1754-9434.2008.00084.x This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. https://repository.upenn.edu/mgmt_papers/32 For more information, please contact [email protected]. The Challenge of Debiasing Personnel Decisions: Avoiding Both Under- and Overcorrection Disciplines Business Administration, Management, and Operations This journal article is available at ScholarlyCommons: https://repository.upenn.edu/mgmt_papers/32 1 The Challenge of Debiasing Personnel Decisions: Avoiding Both Under- and Over-Correction Philip E. Tetlock, * Gregory Mitchell, ** and Terry L. Murray *** Introduction This commentary advances two interrelated scientific arguments. First, we endorse Landy's (2008) concerns about the insufficient emphasis placed on individuating information by scholars eager to import social-cognition work on stereotyping into employment law. Building on Landy’s analysis, we emphasize that greater attention needs to be given to the power of accountability and teamwork incentives to motivate personnel decision-makers to seek and utilize individuating information that is predictive of job-relevant behavior. Second, we note how easy it is for exchanges between proponents and skeptics of unconscious stereotyping to lead to ideological stalemates. -
Statistical Tips for Interpreting Scientific Claims
Research Skills Seminar Series 2019 CAHS Research Education Program Statistical Tips for Interpreting Scientific Claims Mark Jones Statistician, Telethon Kids Institute 18 October 2019 Research Skills Seminar Series | CAHS Research Education Program Department of Child Health Research | Child and Adolescent Health Service ResearchEducationProgram.org © CAHS Research Education Program, Department of Child Health Research, Child and Adolescent Health Service, WA 2019 Copyright to this material produced by the CAHS Research Education Program, Department of Child Health Research, Child and Adolescent Health Service, Western Australia, under the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968 (C’wth Australia). Apart from any fair dealing for personal, academic, research or non-commercial use, no part may be reproduced without written permission. The Department of Child Health Research is under no obligation to grant this permission. Please acknowledge the CAHS Research Education Program, Department of Child Health Research, Child and Adolescent Health Service when reproducing or quoting material from this source. Statistical Tips for Interpreting Scientific Claims CONTENTS: 1 PRESENTATION ............................................................................................................................... 1 2 ARTICLE: TWENTY TIPS FOR INTERPRETING SCIENTIFIC CLAIMS, SUTHERLAND, SPIEGELHALTER & BURGMAN, 2013 .................................................................................................................................. 15 3 -
The Clinical and Ethical Implications of Cognitive Biases
THE CLINICAL AND ETHICAL IMPLICATIONS OF COGNITIVE BIASES Brendan Leier, PhD Clinical Ethicist, University of Alberta Hospital/Stollery Children’s Hospital & Mazankowski Heart Institute & Clinical Assistant Professor Faculty of Medicine and Dentistry & John Dossetor Health Ethics Centre Some games 2 Wason selection task • choose two cards to turn over in order to test the following E4 hypothesis: • If the card has a vowel on one side, it must have an even number on the other side 7K 3 • Most subjects make the error of choosing E & 4 E4 • Traditionally subjects fail to select the cards E & 7 that can both correctly confirm and falsify the hypothesis 7K 4 The Monty Hall Problem Monty asks you to choose between three boxes. One box contains a valuable prize, the other two boxes do not. 5 The Monty Hall Problem Box A Box B Box C 6 The Monty Hall Problem After you choose Box A, Monty reveals Box C as empty, and then asks you if you would like to switch your choice. Of the remaining two Box A and Box B, do you switch your choice? 7 Do you switch from A to B? Box A Box B 8 Should you switch from A to B? Box A Box B 9 Yes, you should you switch from A to B Box A Box B 33% 50% 10 last one A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs 1 dollar more than the ball. How much does the ball cost? 11 Reasoning and Rationality • Sub-field of epistemology • Looks for normative guidance in acquiring/establishing claims to knowledge or systems of inquiry. -
Who Uses Base Rates and <Emphasis Type="Italic">P </Emphasis>(D
Memory & Cognition 1998,26 (1), 161-179 Who uses base rates and P(D/,..,H)? An analysis ofindividual differences KEITHE. STANOVICH University ofToronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada and RICHARD F. WEST James Madison University, Harrisonburg, Virginia In two experiments, involving over 900 subjects, we examined the cognitive correlates of the ten dency to view P(D/- H) and base rate information as relevant to probability assessment. Wefound that individuals who viewed P(D/- H) as relevant in a selection task and who used it to make the proper Bayesian adjustment in a probability assessment task scored higher on tests of cognitive ability and were better deductive and inductive reasoners. They were less biased by prior beliefs and more data driven on a covariation assessment task. In contrast, individuals who thought that base rates were rel evant did not display better reasoning skill or higher cognitive ability. Our results parallel disputes about the normative status of various components of the Bayesian formula in interesting ways. Itis ar gued that patterns of covariance among reasoning tasks may have implications for inferences about what individuals are trying to optimize in a rational analysis (J. R. Anderson, 1990, 1991). Twodeviations from normatively correct Bayesian rea and were asked to choose which pieces of information soning have been the focus ofmuch research. The two de they would need in order to determine whether the patient viations are most easily characterized ifBayes' rule is ex had the disease "Digirosa," The four pieces of informa pressed in the ratio form, where the odds favoring the focal tion were the percentage ofpeople with Digirosa, the per hypothesis (H) are derived by multiplying the likelihood centage of people without Digirosa, the percentage of ratio ofthe observed datum (D) by the prior odds favor people with Digirosa who have a red rash, and the per ing the focal hypothesis: centage ofpeople without Digirosa who have a red rash.