Testing the Abstractedness Account of Base-Rate Neglect, and the Representativeness Heuristic,Using Psychological Distance
TESTING THE ABSTRACTEDNESS ACCOUNT OF BASE-RATE NEGLECT, AND THE REPRESENTATIVENESS HEURISTIC,USING PSYCHOLOGICAL DISTANCE Jared Branch A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate College of Bowling Green State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS August 2017 Committee: Richard Anderson, Advisor Scott Highhouse Yiwei Chen © 2017 Jared Branch All Rights Reserved iii ABSTRACT Richard Anderson, Advisor Decision-makers neglect prior probabilities, or base-rates, when faced with problems of Bayesian inference (e.g. Bar-Hillel, 1980; Kahneman & Tversky, 1972, 1973; Nisbett and Borgida 1975). Judgments are instead made via the representativeness heuristic, in which a probability judgment is made by how representative its most salient features are (Kahneman & Tversky, 1972). Research has shown that base-rate neglect can be lessened by making individual subsets amenable to overall superset extraction (e.g. Gigerenzer & Hoffrage, 1995; Evans et al. 2000; Evans et al. 2002; Tversky & Kahneman, 1983). In addition to nested sets, psychological distance should change the weight afforded to base-rate information. Construal Level Theory (Trope & Liberman, 2010) proposes that psychological distances—a removal from the subjective and egocentric self—result in differential information use. When we are proximal to an event we focus on its concrete aspects, and distance from an event increases our focus on its abstract aspects. Indeed, previous research has shown that being psychologically distant from an event increases the use of abstract and aggregate information (Burgoon, Henderson, & Wakslak, 2013; Ledgerwood, Wakslak, & Wang, 2010), although these results have been contradicted (Braga, Ferreira, & Sherman, 2015). Over two experiments I test the idea that psychological distance increases base-rate use.
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