How a Machine Learns and Fails 2019
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Avoiding the Conjunction Fallacy: Who Can Take a Hint?
Avoiding the conjunction fallacy: Who can take a hint? Simon Klein Spring 2017 Master’s thesis, 30 ECTS Master’s programme in Cognitive Science, 120 ECTS Supervisor: Linnea Karlsson Wirebring Acknowledgments: The author would like to thank the participants for enduring the test session with challenging questions and thereby making the study possible, his supervisor Linnea Karlsson Wirebring for invaluable guidance and good questions during the thesis work, and his fiancée Amanda Arnö for much needed mental support during the entire process. 2 AVOIDING THE CONJUNCTION FALLACY: WHO CAN TAKE A HINT? Simon Klein Humans repeatedly commit the so called “conjunction fallacy”, erroneously judging the probability of two events occurring together as higher than the probability of one of the events. Certain hints have been shown to mitigate this tendency. The present thesis investigated the relations between three psychological factors and performance on conjunction tasks after reading such a hint. The factors represent the understanding of probability and statistics (statistical numeracy), the ability to resist intuitive but incorrect conclusions (cognitive reflection), and the willingness to engage in, and enjoyment of, analytical thinking (need-for-cognition). Participants (n = 50) answered 30 short conjunction tasks and three psychological scales. A bimodal response distribution motivated dichotomization of performance scores. Need-for-cognition was significantly, positively correlated with performance, while numeracy and cognitive reflection were not. The results suggest that the willingness to engage in, and enjoyment of, analytical thinking plays an important role for the capacity to avoid the conjunction fallacy after taking a hint. The hint further seems to neutralize differences in performance otherwise predicted by statistical numeracy and cognitive reflection. -
Cognitive Bias Mitigation: How to Make Decision-Making More Rational?
Cognitive Bias Mitigation: How to make decision-making more rational? Abstract Cognitive biases distort judgement and adversely impact decision-making, which results in economic inefficiencies. Initial attempts to mitigate these biases met with little success. However, recent studies which used computer games and educational videos to train people to avoid biases (Clegg et al., 2014; Morewedge et al., 2015) showed that this form of training reduced selected cognitive biases by 30 %. In this work I report results of an experiment which investigated the debiasing effects of training on confirmation bias. The debiasing training took the form of a short video which contained information about confirmation bias, its impact on judgement, and mitigation strategies. The results show that participants exhibited confirmation bias both in the selection and processing of information, and that debiasing training effectively decreased the level of confirmation bias by 33 % at the 5% significance level. Key words: Behavioural economics, cognitive bias, confirmation bias, cognitive bias mitigation, confirmation bias mitigation, debiasing JEL classification: D03, D81, Y80 1 Introduction Empirical research has documented a panoply of cognitive biases which impair human judgement and make people depart systematically from models of rational behaviour (Gilovich et al., 2002; Kahneman, 2011; Kahneman & Tversky, 1979; Pohl, 2004). Besides distorted decision-making and judgement in the areas of medicine, law, and military (Nickerson, 1998), cognitive biases can also lead to economic inefficiencies. Slovic et al. (1977) point out how they distort insurance purchases, Hyman Minsky (1982) partly blames psychological factors for economic cycles. Shefrin (2010) argues that confirmation bias and some other cognitive biases were among the significant factors leading to the global financial crisis which broke out in 2008. -
Graphical Techniques in Debiasing: an Exploratory Study
GRAPHICAL TECHNIQUES IN DEBIASING: AN EXPLORATORY STUDY by S. Bhasker Information Systems Department Leonard N. Stern School of Business New York University New York, New York 10006 and A. Kumaraswamy Management Department Leonard N. Stern School of Business New York University New York, NY 10006 October, 1990 Center for Research on Information Systems Information Systems Department Leonard N. Stern School of Business New York University Working Paper Series STERN IS-90-19 Forthcoming in the Proceedings of the 1991 Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences Center for Digital Economy Research Stem School of Business IVorking Paper IS-90-19 Center for Digital Economy Research Stem School of Business IVorking Paper IS-90-19 2 Abstract Base rate and conjunction fallacies are consistent biases that influence decision making involving probability judgments. We develop simple graphical techniques and test their eflcacy in correcting for these biases. Preliminary results suggest that graphical techniques help to overcome these biases and improve decision making. We examine the implications of incorporating these simple techniques in Executive Information Systems. Introduction Today, senior executives operate in highly uncertain environments. They have to collect, process and analyze a deluge of information - most of it ambiguous. But, their limited information acquiring and processing capabilities constrain them in this task [25]. Increasingly, executives rely on executive information/support systems for various purposes like strategic scanning of their business environments, internal monitoring of their businesses, analysis of data available from various internal and external sources, and communications [5,19,32]. However, executive information systems are, at best, support tools. Executives still rely on their mental or cognitive models of their businesses and environments and develop heuristics to simplify decision problems [10,16,25]. -
The Being of Analogy Noah Roderick Noah Roderick the Being of Analogy
Noah Roderick The Being of Analogy Noah Roderick Noah Roderick The Being of Analogy The Being of Modern physics replaced the dualism of matter and form with a new distinction between matter and force. In this way form was marginalized, and with it the related notion of the object. Noah Roderick’s book is a refreshing effort to reverse the consequences of this now banal mainstream materialism. Ranging from physics through literature to linguistics, spanning philosophy from East to West, and weaving it all together in remarkably lucid prose, Roderick intro- duces a new concept of analogy that sheds unfamiliar light on such thinkers as Marx, Deleuze, Goodman, Sellars, and Foucault. More than a literary device, analogy teaches us something about being itself. OPEN HUMANITIES PRESS Cover design by Katherine Gillieson · Illustration by Tammy Lu The Being of Analogy New Metaphysics Series Editors: Graham Harman and Bruno Latour The world is due for a resurgence of original speculative metaphysics. The New Metaphys- ics series aims to provide a safe house for such thinking amidst the demoralizing caution and prudence of professional academic philosophy. We do not aim to bridge the analytic- continental divide, since we are equally impatient with nail-filing analytic critique and the continental reverence for dusty textual monuments. We favor instead the spirit of the intel- lectual gambler, and wish to discover and promote authors who meet this description. Like an emergent recording company, what we seek are traces of a new metaphysical ‘sound’ from any nation of the world. The editors are open to translations of neglected metaphysical classics, and will consider secondary works of especial force and daring. -
Cognitive Biases in Economic Decisions – Three Essays on the Impact of Debiasing
TECHNISCHE UNIVERSITÄT MÜNCHEN Lehrstuhl für Betriebswirtschaftslehre – Strategie und Organisation Univ.-Prof. Dr. Isabell M. Welpe Cognitive biases in economic decisions – three essays on the impact of debiasing Christoph Martin Gerald Döbrich Abdruck der von der Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften der Technischen Universität München zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades eines Doktors der Wirtschaftswissenschaften (Dr. rer. pol.) genehmigten Dissertation. Vorsitzender: Univ.-Prof. Dr. Gunther Friedl Prüfer der Dissertation: 1. Univ.-Prof. Dr. Isabell M. Welpe 2. Univ.-Prof. Dr. Dr. Holger Patzelt Die Dissertation wurde am 28.11.2012 bei der Technischen Universität München eingereicht und durch die Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften am 15.12.2012 angenommen. Acknowledgments II Acknowledgments Numerous people have contributed to the development and successful completion of this dissertation. First of all, I would like to thank my supervisor Prof. Dr. Isabell M. Welpe for her continuous support, all the constructive discussions, and her enthusiasm concerning my dissertation project. Her challenging questions and new ideas always helped me to improve my work. My sincere thanks also go to Prof. Dr. Matthias Spörrle for his continuous support of my work and his valuable feedback for the articles building this dissertation. Moreover, I am grateful to Prof. Dr. Dr. Holger Patzelt for acting as the second advisor for this thesis and Professor Dr. Gunther Friedl for leading the examination board. This dissertation would not have been possible without the financial support of the Elite Network of Bavaria. I am very thankful for the financial support over two years which allowed me to pursue my studies in a focused and efficient manner. Many colleagues at the Chair for Strategy and Organization of Technische Universität München have supported me during the completion of this thesis. -
Illusory Correlation and Valenced Outcomes by Cory Derringer BA
Title Page Illusory Correlation and Valenced Outcomes by Cory Derringer BA, University of Northern Iowa, 2012 MS, Missouri State University, 2014 Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of The Dietrich School of Arts and Sciences in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Pittsburgh 2019 Committee Membership Page UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH DIETRICH SCHOOL OF ARTS AND SCIENCES This dissertation was presented by Cory Derringer It was defended on April 12, 2019 and approved by Timothy Nokes-Malach, Associate Professor, Department of Psychology Julie Fiez, Professor, Department of Psychology David Danks, Professor, Department of Psychology, Carnegie Mellon University Thesis Advisor/Dissertation Director: Benjamin Rottman, Associate Professor, Department of Psychology ii Copyright © by Cory Derringer 2019 iii Abstract Illusory Correlation and Valenced Outcomes Cory Derringer, PhD University of Pittsburgh, 2019 Accurately detecting relationships between variables in the environment is an integral part of our cognition. The tendency for people to infer these relationships where there are none has been documented in several different fields of research, including social psychology, fear learning, and placebo effects. A consistent finding in these areas is that people infer these illusory correlations more readily when they involve negative (aversive) outcomes; however, previous research has not tested this idea directly. Four experiments yielded several empirical findings: Valence effects were reliable and robust in a causal learning task with and without monetary outcomes, they were driven by relative rather than absolute gains and losses, and they were not moderated by the magnitude of monetary gains/losses. Several models of contingency learning are discussed and modified in an attempt to explain the findings, although none of the modifications could reasonably explain valence effects. -
•Understanding Bias: a Resource Guide
Community Relations Services Toolkit for Policing Understanding Bias: A Resource Guide Bias Policing Overview and Resource Guide The Community Relations Service (CRS) is the U.S. Justice Department’s “peacemaker” agency, whose mission is to help resolve tensions in communities across the nation, arising from differences of race, color, national origin, gender, gender identity, sexual orientation, religion, and disability. CRS may be called to help a city or town resolve tensions that stem from community perceptions of bias or a lack of cultural competency among police officers. Bias and a lack of cultural competency are often cited interchangeably as challenges in police- community relationships. While bias and a lack of cultural competency may both be present in a given situation, these challenges and the strategies for addressing them differ appreciably. This resource guide will assist readers in understanding and addressing both of these issues. What is bias, and how is it different from cultural competency? The Science of Bias Bias is a human trait resulting from our tendency and need to classify individuals into categories as we strive to quickly process information and make sense of the world.1 To a large extent, these processes occur below the level of consciousness. This “unconscious” classification of people occurs through schemas, or “mental maps,” developed from life experiences to aid in “automatic processing.”2 Automatic processing occurs with tasks that are very well practiced; very few mental resources and little conscious thought are involved during automatic processing, allowing numerous tasks to be carried out simultaneously.3 These schemas become templates that we use when we are faced with 1. -
Working Memory, Cognitive Miserliness and Logic As Predictors of Performance on the Cognitive Reflection Test
Working Memory, Cognitive Miserliness and Logic as Predictors of Performance on the Cognitive Reflection Test Edward J. N. Stupple ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Maggie Gale ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Christopher R. Richmond ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Abstract Most participants respond that the answer is 10 cents; however, a slower and more analytic approach to the The Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) was devised to measure problem reveals the correct answer to be 5 cents. the inhibition of heuristic responses to favour analytic ones. The CRT has been a spectacular success, attracting more Toplak, West and Stanovich (2011) demonstrated that the than 100 citations in 2012 alone (Scopus). This may be in CRT was a powerful predictor of heuristics and biases task part due to the ease of administration; with only three items performance - proposing it as a metric of the cognitive miserliness central to dual process theories of thinking. This and no requirement for expensive equipment, the practical thesis was examined using reasoning response-times, advantages are considerable. There have, moreover, been normative responses from two reasoning tasks and working numerous correlates of the CRT demonstrated, from a wide memory capacity (WMC) to predict individual differences in range of tasks in the heuristics and biases literature (Toplak performance on the CRT. These data offered limited support et al., 2011) to risk aversion and SAT scores (Frederick, for the view of miserliness as the primary factor in the CRT. -
Illusory Correlation in Children
The Pennsylvania State University The Graduate School Department of Psychology ILLUSORY CORRELATION IN CHILDREN: COGNITIVE AND MOTIVATIONAL BIASES IN CHILDREN’S GROUP IMPRESSION FORMATION A Thesis in Psychology by Kristen Elizabeth Johnston © 2000 Kristen Elizabeth Johnston Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy May, 2000 We approve the thesis of Kristen E. Johnston. Date of Signature ___________________________________________ ______________ Kelly L. Madole Assistant Professor of Psychology Thesis Advisor ___________________________________________ ______________ Janis E. Jacobs Vice President of Administration and Associate Professor Of Psychology and Human Development Thesis Advisor ___________________________________________ ______________ Janet K. Swim Associate Professor of Psychology ___________________________________________ ______________ Jeffrey Parker Assistant Professor of Psychology ___________________________________________ ______________ Susan McHale Associate Professor of Psychology ___________________________________________ ______________ Keith Crnic Department Head and Professor of Psychology iii ABSTRACT Despite the ubiquity and sometimes devastating consequences of stereotyping, we know little about the origins and development of these processes. The current research examined one way in which false stereotypes about minority groups may be developed, which is called illusory correlation. Research with adults has shown that when people are told about behaviors associated -
Aesthetics After Finitude Anamnesis Anamnesis Means Remembrance Or Reminiscence, the Collection and Re- Collection of What Has Been Lost, Forgotten, Or Effaced
Aesthetics After Finitude Anamnesis Anamnesis means remembrance or reminiscence, the collection and re- collection of what has been lost, forgotten, or effaced. It is therefore a matter of the very old, of what has made us who we are. But anamnesis is also a work that transforms its subject, always producing something new. To recollect the old, to produce the new: that is the task of Anamnesis. a re.press series Aesthetics After Finitude Baylee Brits, Prudence Gibson and Amy Ireland, editors re.press Melbourne 2016 re.press PO Box 40, Prahran, 3181, Melbourne, Australia http://www.re-press.org © the individual contributors and re.press 2016 This work is ‘Open Access’, published under a creative commons license which means that you are free to copy, distribute, display, and perform the work as long as you clearly attribute the work to the authors, that you do not use this work for any commercial gain in any form whatso- ever and that you in no way alter, transform or build on the work outside of its use in normal aca- demic scholarship without express permission of the author (or their executors) and the publisher of this volume. For any reuse or distribution, you must make clear to others the license terms of this work. For more information see the details of the creative commons licence at this website: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication Data Title: Aesthetics after finitude / Baylee Brits, Prudence Gibson and Amy Ireland, editors. ISBN: 9780980819793 (paperback) Series: Anamnesis Subjects: Aesthetics. -
The Challenge of Debiasing Personnel Decisions: Avoiding Both Under- and Overcorrection
University of Pennsylvania ScholarlyCommons Management Papers Wharton Faculty Research 12-2008 The Challenge of Debiasing Personnel Decisions: Avoiding Both Under- and Overcorrection Philip E. Tetlock University of Pennsylvania Gregory Mitchell Terry L. Murray Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.upenn.edu/mgmt_papers Part of the Business Administration, Management, and Operations Commons Recommended Citation Tetlock, P. E., Mitchell, G., & Murray, T. L. (2008). The Challenge of Debiasing Personnel Decisions: Avoiding Both Under- and Overcorrection. Industrial and Organizational Psychology, 1 (4), 439-443. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1754-9434.2008.00084.x This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. https://repository.upenn.edu/mgmt_papers/32 For more information, please contact [email protected]. The Challenge of Debiasing Personnel Decisions: Avoiding Both Under- and Overcorrection Disciplines Business Administration, Management, and Operations This journal article is available at ScholarlyCommons: https://repository.upenn.edu/mgmt_papers/32 1 The Challenge of Debiasing Personnel Decisions: Avoiding Both Under- and Over-Correction Philip E. Tetlock, * Gregory Mitchell, ** and Terry L. Murray *** Introduction This commentary advances two interrelated scientific arguments. First, we endorse Landy's (2008) concerns about the insufficient emphasis placed on individuating information by scholars eager to import social-cognition work on stereotyping into employment law. Building on Landy’s analysis, we emphasize that greater attention needs to be given to the power of accountability and teamwork incentives to motivate personnel decision-makers to seek and utilize individuating information that is predictive of job-relevant behavior. Second, we note how easy it is for exchanges between proponents and skeptics of unconscious stereotyping to lead to ideological stalemates. -
Social Psychology Glossary
Social Psychology Glossary This glossary defines many of the key terms used in class lectures and assigned readings. A Altruism—A motive to increase another's welfare without conscious regard for one's own self-interest. Availability Heuristic—A cognitive rule, or mental shortcut, in which we judge how likely something is by how easy it is to think of cases. Attractiveness—Having qualities that appeal to an audience. An appealing communicator (often someone similar to the audience) is most persuasive on matters of subjective preference. Attribution Theory—A theory about how people explain the causes of behavior—for example, by attributing it either to "internal" dispositions (e.g., enduring traits, motives, values, and attitudes) or to "external" situations. Automatic Processing—"Implicit" thinking that tends to be effortless, habitual, and done without awareness. B Behavioral Confirmation—A type of self-fulfilling prophecy in which people's social expectations lead them to behave in ways that cause others to confirm their expectations. Belief Perseverance—Persistence of a belief even when the original basis for it has been discredited. Bystander Effect—The tendency for people to be less likely to help someone in need when other people are present than when they are the only person there. Also known as bystander inhibition. C Catharsis—Emotional release. The catharsis theory of aggression is that people's aggressive drive is reduced when they "release" aggressive energy, either by acting aggressively or by fantasizing about aggression. Central Route to Persuasion—Occurs when people are convinced on the basis of facts, statistics, logic, and other types of evidence that support a particular position.