“Dysrationalia” Among University Students: the Role of Cognitive
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A Task-Based Taxonomy of Cognitive Biases for Information Visualization
A Task-based Taxonomy of Cognitive Biases for Information Visualization Evanthia Dimara, Steven Franconeri, Catherine Plaisant, Anastasia Bezerianos, and Pierre Dragicevic Three kinds of limitations The Computer The Display 2 Three kinds of limitations The Computer The Display The Human 3 Three kinds of limitations: humans • Human vision ️ has limitations • Human reasoning 易 has limitations The Human 4 ️Perceptual bias Magnitude estimation 5 ️Perceptual bias Magnitude estimation Color perception 6 易 Cognitive bias Behaviors when humans consistently behave irrationally Pohl’s criteria distilled: • Are predictable and consistent • People are unaware they’re doing them • Are not misunderstandings 7 Ambiguity effect, Anchoring or focalism, Anthropocentric thinking, Anthropomorphism or personification, Attentional bias, Attribute substitution, Automation bias, Availability heuristic, Availability cascade, Backfire effect, Bandwagon effect, Base rate fallacy or Base rate neglect, Belief bias, Ben Franklin effect, Berkson's paradox, Bias blind spot, Choice-supportive bias, Clustering illusion, Compassion fade, Confirmation bias, Congruence bias, Conjunction fallacy, Conservatism (belief revision), Continued influence effect, Contrast effect, Courtesy bias, Curse of knowledge, Declinism, Decoy effect, Default effect, Denomination effect, Disposition effect, Distinction bias, Dread aversion, Dunning–Kruger effect, Duration neglect, Empathy gap, End-of-history illusion, Endowment effect, Exaggerated expectation, Experimenter's or expectation bias, -
Higher Education Reform: Getting the Incentives Right
Higher Education Reform: Getting the Incentives Right CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis CHEPS Van Stolkweg 14 University of Twente P.O. Box 80510 P.O. Box 217 2508 GM The Hague, The Netherlands 7500 AE Enschede, the Netherlands ISBN 90 5833 065 6 2 Contents Contents Preface 9 Introduction 11 1 The Dutch higher education system 15 1.1 Binary system 15 1.2 Formal tasks 16 1.3Types of institutions 16 1.4 Funding structure 17 1.5 Public expenditures on higher education 19 1.6 Tuition fee policies 21 1.7 Student support system 23 1.8 Admission policies 24 1.9 Quality control 25 1.10 Enrollment 26 Annex:Public funding of higher education in the Netherlands, performance-based models 29 2 Economics of higher education 35 2.1 Why do people attend higher education? 35 2.1.1 The human capital approach 35 2.1.2 The signalling approach 36 2.1.3How high are the financial and non-financial returns to higher education? 36 2.2 Why public support of higher education? 38 2.2.1 Human capital spillovers 38 2.2.2 Capital market constraints 39 2.2.3Risk 40 2.2.4 Imperfect information and transparency 41 2.2.5 Income redistribution 42 2.2.6 Tax distortions 42 2.3How to fund higher education? 42 2.3.1 Student support 43 2.3.2 Funding of higher education institutions 43 2.4 Public versus private provision of higher education 44 2.5 Should the higher education sector be deregulated? 45 2.6 Why combine education and research in universities? 46 5 Higher Education Reform: Getting the Incentives Right 2.7 Why and when should research be publicly funded? -
Working Memory, Cognitive Miserliness and Logic As Predictors of Performance on the Cognitive Reflection Test
Working Memory, Cognitive Miserliness and Logic as Predictors of Performance on the Cognitive Reflection Test Edward J. N. Stupple ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Maggie Gale ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Christopher R. Richmond ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Abstract Most participants respond that the answer is 10 cents; however, a slower and more analytic approach to the The Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) was devised to measure problem reveals the correct answer to be 5 cents. the inhibition of heuristic responses to favour analytic ones. The CRT has been a spectacular success, attracting more Toplak, West and Stanovich (2011) demonstrated that the than 100 citations in 2012 alone (Scopus). This may be in CRT was a powerful predictor of heuristics and biases task part due to the ease of administration; with only three items performance - proposing it as a metric of the cognitive miserliness central to dual process theories of thinking. This and no requirement for expensive equipment, the practical thesis was examined using reasoning response-times, advantages are considerable. There have, moreover, been normative responses from two reasoning tasks and working numerous correlates of the CRT demonstrated, from a wide memory capacity (WMC) to predict individual differences in range of tasks in the heuristics and biases literature (Toplak performance on the CRT. These data offered limited support et al., 2011) to risk aversion and SAT scores (Frederick, for the view of miserliness as the primary factor in the CRT. -
A Diffusion Model Analysis of Belief Bias: Different Cognitive Mechanisms Explain How Cogni
A diffusion model analysis of belief bias: Different cognitive mechanisms explain how cogni- tive abilities and thinking styles contribute to conflict resolution in reasoning Anna-Lena Schuberta, Mário B. Ferreirab, André Matac, & Ben Riemenschneiderd aInstitute of Psychology, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany, E-mail: anna- [email protected] bCICPSI, Faculdade de Psicologia, Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal, E-mail: mferreira@psi- cologia.ulisboa.pt cCICPSI, Faculdade de Psicologia, Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal, E-mail: aomata@psico- logia.ulisboa.pt dInstitute of Psychology, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany, E-mail: riemenschnei- [email protected] Word count: 17,116 words Author Note Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Anna-Lena Schubert, Institute of Psychology, Heidelberg University, Hauptstrasse 47-51, D-69117 Heidelberg, Germany, Phone: +49 (0) 6221-547354, Fax: +49 (0) 6221-547325, E-mail: anna-lena.schubert@psy- chologie.uni-heidelberg.de. The authors thank Joana Reis for her help in setting up the experi- ment, and Adrian P. Banks and Christopher Hope for sharing their experimental material. THE ROLE OF COGNITIVE ABILITIES AND THINKING STYLES IN REASONING 2 Abstract Recent results have challenged the widespread assumption of dual process models of belief bias that sound reasoning relies on slow, careful reflection, whereas biased reasoning is based on fast intuition. Instead, parallel process models of reasoning suggest that rule- and belief- based problem features are processed in parallel and that reasoning problems that elicit a con- flict between rule- and belief-based problem features may also elicit more than one Type 1 re- sponse. This has important implications for individual-differences research on reasoning, be- cause rule-based responses by certain individuals may reflect that these individuals were ei- ther more likely to give a rule-based default response or that they successfully inhibited and overrode a belief-based default response. -
Facts Are More Important Than Novelty
See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/268522706 Facts Are More Important Than Novelty Article in Educational Researcher · August 2014 DOI: 10.3102/0013189X14545513 CITATIONS READS 157 1,131 2 authors: Matthew Makel Jonathan Plucker Duke University Johns Hopkins University 60 PUBLICATIONS 1,422 CITATIONS 205 PUBLICATIONS 5,383 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects: Excellence Gaps: Addressing Both Equity and Excellence View project Training View project All content following this page was uploaded by Jonathan Plucker on 21 November 2014. The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file. Educational Researcher http://er.aera.net Facts Are More Important Than Novelty: Replication in the Education Sciences Matthew C. Makel and Jonathan A. Plucker EDUCATIONAL RESEARCHER published online 13 August 2014 DOI: 10.3102/0013189X14545513 The online version of this article can be found at: http://edr.sagepub.com/content/early/2014/07/23/0013189X14545513 Published on behalf of American Educational Research Association and http://www.sagepublications.com Additional services and information for Educational Researcher can be found at: Email Alerts: http://er.aera.net/alerts Subscriptions: http://er.aera.net/subscriptions Reprints: http://www.aera.net/reprints Permissions: http://www.aera.net/permissions >> OnlineFirst Version of Record - Aug 13, 2014 What is This? Downloaded from http://er.aera.net by guest on August 17, 2014 EDRXXX10.3102/0013189X14545513Educational ResearcherMonth XXXX 545513research-article2014 FEATURE ARTICLE Facts Are More Important Than Novelty: Replication in the Education Sciences Matthew C. Makel1 and Jonathan A. -
The Comprehensive Assessment of Rational Thinking
EDUCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGIST, 51(1), 23–34, 2016 Copyright Ó Division 15, American Psychological Association ISSN: 0046-1520 print / 1532-6985 online DOI: 10.1080/00461520.2015.1125787 2013 THORNDIKE AWARD ADDRESS The Comprehensive Assessment of Rational Thinking Keith E. Stanovich Department of Applied Psychology and Human Development University of Toronto, Canada The Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded in 2002 for work on judgment and decision- making tasks that are the operational measures of rational thought in cognitive science. Because assessments of intelligence (and similar tests of cognitive ability) are taken to be the quintessence of good thinking, it might be thought that such measures would serve as proxies for the assessment of rational thought. It is important to understand why such an assumption would be misplaced. It is often not recognized that rationality and intelligence (as traditionally defined) are two different things conceptually and empirically. Distinguishing between rationality and intelligence helps explain how people can be, at the same time, intelligent and irrational. Thus, individual differences in the cognitive skills that underlie rational thinking must be studied in their own right because intelligence tests do not explicitly assess rational thinking. In this article, I describe how my research group has worked to develop the first prototype of a comprehensive test of rational thought (the Comprehensive Assessment of Rational Thinking). It was truly a remarkable honor to receive the E. L. Thorn- Cunningham, of the University of California, Berkeley. To dike Career Achievement Award for 2012. The list of previ- commemorate this award, Anne bought me a 1923 ous winners is truly awe inspiring and humbling. -
Prior Belief Innuences on Reasoning and Judgment: a Multivariate Investigation of Individual Differences in Belief Bias
Prior Belief Innuences on Reasoning and Judgment: A Multivariate Investigation of Individual Differences in Belief Bias Walter Cabral Sa A thesis submitted in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Graduate Department of Education University of Toronto O Copyright by Walter C.Si5 1999 National Library Bibliothèque nationaIe of Canada du Canada Acquisitions and Acquisitions et Bibliographic Services services bibliographiques 395 Wellington Street 395, rue WePington Ottawa ON K1A ON4 Ottawa ON KtA ON4 Canada Canada Your file Votre rëfërence Our fi& Notre réterence The author has granted a non- L'auteur a accordé une licence non exclusive Licence allowing the exclusive permettant à la National Libraq of Canada to Bibliothèque nationale du Canada de reproduce, loan, distribute or sell reproduire, prêter, distribuer ou copies of this thesis in microforni, vendre des copies de cette thèse sous paper or electronic formats. la forme de microfiche/film, de reproduction sur papier ou sur format électronique. The author retains ownership of the L'auteur conserve la propriété du copyright in this thesis. Neither the droit d'auteur qui protège cette thèse. thesis nor subçtantial extracts fi-om it Ni la thèse ni des extraits substantiels may be printed or otherwise de celle-ci ne doivent être imprimés reproduced without the author's ou autrement reproduits sans son permission. autorisation. Prior Belief Influences on Reasoning and Judgment: A Multivariate Investigation of Individual Differences in Belief Bias Doctor of Philosophy, 1999 Walter Cabral Sa Graduate Department of Education University of Toronto Belief bias occurs when reasoning or judgments are found to be overly infiuenced by prior belief at the expense of a normatively prescribed accommodation of dl the relevant data. -
John Collins, President, Forensic Foundations Group
On Bias in Forensic Science National Commission on Forensic Science – May 12, 2014 56-year-old Vatsala Thakkar was a doctor in India but took a job as a convenience store cashier to help pay family expenses. She was stabbed to death outside her store trying to thwart a theft in November 2008. Bloody Footwear Impression Bloody Tire Impression What was the threat? 1. We failed to ask ourselves if this was a footwear impression. 2. The appearance of the impression combined with the investigator’s interpretation created prejudice. The accuracy of our analysis became threatened by our prejudice. Types of Cognitive Bias Available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases | Accessed on April 14, 2014 Anchoring or focalism Hindsight bias Pseudocertainty effect Illusory superiority Levels-of-processing effect Attentional bias Hostile media effect Reactance Ingroup bias List-length effect Availability heuristic Hot-hand fallacy Reactive devaluation Just-world phenomenon Misinformation effect Availability cascade Hyperbolic discounting Recency illusion Moral luck Modality effect Backfire effect Identifiable victim effect Restraint bias Naive cynicism Mood-congruent memory bias Bandwagon effect Illusion of control Rhyme as reason effect Naïve realism Next-in-line effect Base rate fallacy or base rate neglect Illusion of validity Risk compensation / Peltzman effect Outgroup homogeneity bias Part-list cueing effect Belief bias Illusory correlation Selective perception Projection bias Peak-end rule Bias blind spot Impact bias Semmelweis -
Thinking and Reasoning
Thinking and Reasoning Thinking and Reasoning ■ An introduction to the psychology of reason, judgment and decision making Ken Manktelow First published 2012 British Library Cataloguing in Publication by Psychology Press Data 27 Church Road, Hove, East Sussex BN3 2FA A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication by Psychology Press Data 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017 Manktelow, K. I., 1952– Thinking and reasoning : an introduction [www.psypress.com] to the psychology of reason, Psychology Press is an imprint of the Taylor & judgment and decision making / Ken Francis Group, an informa business Manktelow. p. cm. © 2012 Psychology Press Includes bibliographical references and Typeset in Century Old Style and Futura by index. Refi neCatch Ltd, Bungay, Suffolk 1. Reasoning (Psychology) Cover design by Andrew Ward 2. Thought and thinking. 3. Cognition. 4. Decision making. All rights reserved. No part of this book may I. Title. be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any BF442.M354 2012 form or by any electronic, mechanical, or 153.4'2--dc23 other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and 2011031284 recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing ISBN: 978-1-84169-740-6 (hbk) from the publishers. ISBN: 978-1-84169-741-3 (pbk) Trademark notice : Product or corporate ISBN: 978-0-203-11546-6 (ebk) names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used -
50 Cognitive and Affective Biases in Medicine (Alphabetically)
50 Cognitive and Affective Biases in Medicine (alphabetically) Pat Croskerry MD, PhD, FRCP(Edin), Critical Thinking Program, Dalhousie University Aggregate bias: when physicians believe that aggregated data, such as those used to develop clinical practice guidelines, do not apply to individual patients (especially their own), they are exhibiting the aggregate fallacy. The belief that their patients are atypical or somehow exceptional, may lead to errors of commission, e.g. ordering x-rays or other tests when guidelines indicate none are required. Ambiguity effect: there is often an irreducible uncertainty in medicine and ambiguity is associated with uncertainty. The ambiguity effect is due to decision makers avoiding options when the probability is unknown. In considering options on a differential diagnosis, for example, this would be illustrated by a tendency to select options for which the probability of a particular outcome is known over an option for which the probability is unknown. The probability may be unknown because of lack of knowledge or because the means to obtain the probability (a specific test, or imaging) is unavailable. The cognitive miser function (choosing an option that requires less cognitive effort) may also be at play here. Anchoring: the tendency to perceptually lock on to salient features in the patient’s initial presentation too early in the diagnostic process, and failure to adjust this initial impression in the light of later information. This bias may be severely compounded by the confirmation bias. Ascertainment bias: when a physician’s thinking is shaped by prior expectation; stereotyping and gender bias are both good examples. Attentional bias: the tendency to believe there is a relationship between two variables when instances are found of both being present. -
Fixing Biases: Principles of Cognitive De-Biasing
Fixing biases: Principles of cognitive de-biasing Pat Croskerry MD, PhD Clinical Reasoning in Medical Education National Science Learning Centre, University of York Workshop, November 26, 2019 Case q A 65 year old female presents to the ED with a complaint of shoulder sprain. She said she was gardening this morning and injured her shoulder pushing her lawn mower. q At triage she has normal vital signs and in no distress. The triage nurse notes her complaint and triages her to the fast track area. q She is seen by an emergency physician who notes her complaint and examines her shoulder. He orders an X-ray. q The shoulder X ray shows narrowing of the joint and signs of osteoarthrtritis q He discharges her with a sling and Rx for Arthrotec q She is brought to the ED 4 hours later following an episode of syncope, sweating, and weakness. She is diagnosed with an inferior MI. Biases q A 65 year old female presents to the ED with a complaint of ‘shoulder sprain’. She said she was gardening this morning and sprained her shoulder pushing her lawn mower (Framing). q At triage she has normal vital signs and in no distress. The triage nurse notes her complaint and triages her to the fast track area (Triage cueing). q She is seen by an emergency physician who notes her complaint and examines her shoulder. He orders an X-ray (Ascertainment bias). q The shoulder X ray shows narrowing of the joint and signs of osteoarthrtritis. He explains to the patient the cause of her pain (Confirmation bias). -
Croskerry MD, Phd, FRCP(Edin)
Clinical Decision Making + Strategies for Cognitive Debiasing Pat Croskerry MD, PhD, FRCP(Edin) International Association of Endodontists Scottsdale, Arizona June 2019 Financial Disclosures or other Conflicts of Interest None It is estimated that an American adult makes 35,000 decisions a day i.e. about 2200 each waking hour Sollisch J: The cure for decision fatigue. Wall Street Journal, 2016 Decision making ‘The most important decision we need to make in Life is how we are going to make decisions’ Professor Gigerenzer Is there a problem with the way we think and make decisions? 3 domains of decision making Patients Healthcare leadership Healthcare providers Patients Leading Medical Causes of Death in the US and their Preventability in 2000 Cause Total Preventability (%) Heart disease 710,760 46 Malignant neoplasms 553,091 66 Cerebrovascular 167,661 43 Chronic respiratory 122,009 76 Accidents 97,900 44 Diabetes mellitus 69,301 33 Acute respiratory 65,313 23 Suicide 29,350 100 Chronic Liver disease 26,552 75 Hypertension/renal 12,228 68 Assault (homicide) 16,765 100 All other 391,904 14 Keeney (2008) Healthcare leadership Campbell et al, 2017 Healthcare providers US deaths in 2013 • 611,105 Heart disease • 584,881 Cancer • 251,454 Medical error Medical error is the 3rd leading cause of death Estimated number of preventable hospital deaths due to diagnostic failure annually in the US 40,000 – 80,000 Leape, Berwick and Bates JAMA 2002 Diagnostic failure is the biggest problem in patient safety Newman-Toker, 2017 Sources of Diagnostic Failure The System 25% The Individual 75% Graber M, Gordon R, Franklin N.