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Caracterización Dinámica Del Glaciar Hurd Combinando Observaciones De Campo Y Simulaciones Numéricas

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Caracterización Dinámica Del Glaciar Hurd Combinando Observaciones De Campo Y Simulaciones Numéricas Universidad Politécnica de Madrid Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros de Telecomunicación Caracterización dinámica del glaciar Hurd combinando observaciones de campo y simulaciones numéricas Tesis Doctoral por María Carmen Molina Castiella Licenciada en Ciencias Geológicas Año 2014 Departamento de Matemática Aplicada a las Tecnologías de la Información Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros de Telecomunicación Caracterización dinámica del glaciar Hurd combinando observaciones de campo y simulaciones numéricas Autora: María Carmen Molina Castiella Licenciada en Ciencias Geológicas Directores: Francisco José Navarro Valero Jaume Calvet Porta Doctor en Ciencias Físicas Doctor en Ciencias Geológicas Año 2014 I II Tribunal nombrado por el Mgfco. y Excemo. Sr. Rector de la Uni- versidad Politécnica de Madrid, el día ____ de __________ de 2014. Presidente D. Vocal D. Vocal D. Vocal D. Vocal Secretario D. Realizado el acto de defensa y lectura de la Tesis el día ____ de __________ de 2014, en ____________. Calificación: ________________________ EL PRESIDENTE LOS VOCALES EL VOCAL SECRETARIO III IV A mis hijos Jorge, Víctor y Miguel. A Víctor, mi marido. V VI Resumen El objetivo fundamental de esta tesis es la caracterización de la morfología y del estado de deformaciones y tensiones del Glaciar Hurd (Isla Livingston, Archipiélago de las Shetland del Sur, Antártida), mediante una combinación de observaciones de campo, registros de georradar y simulaciones numéricas. La morfología y el estado de deformaciones y tensiones actuales son la expresión de la evolución dinámica del glaciar desde tiempos pretéritos hasta recientes, y su análisis nos dará las pautas con las cuales ser capaces de predecir, con el apoyo de las simulaciones numéricas, su evolución futura. El primer aspecto que se aborda es el estudio de las estructuras que pueden observarse en la superficie del glaciar. Describimos las distintas técnicas utilizadas (medidas de campo, fotointerpretación de ortofotografías, análisis geoquímico de cenizas volcánicas, etc.) y presentamos el análisis e interpretación de los resultados morfo-estructurales, así como la correlación, mediante análisis geoquímicos (fluorescencia de rayos X), entre las cenizas volcánicas que extruyen en la superficie del Glaciar Hurd y las del volcán Decepción, origen de las cenizas. Esto nos permite realizar una datación de las mismas como Tefra 1, correspondiente a la erupción de 1970, Tefra 2, correspondiente a las erupciones pre-1829, y el conjunto Tefra 3, asociado a las erupciones más antiguas. En segundo lugar nos ocupamos de las estructuras presentes en el interior del glaciar, cuya herramienta de detección fundamental es el georradar. Identificadas estas estructuras internas, las vinculamos con las observadas en la superficie del glaciar. También hemos estudiado la estructura hidrotérmica del glaciar, obteniendo una serie de evidencias adicionales de su carácter politérmico. Entre éstas se contaban, hasta ahora, las basadas en el valor del parámetro de rigidez de la relación constitutiva del hielo determinada por ajuste de modelos dinámicos y observaciones realizados por Otero (2008) y las basadas en las velocidades de las ondas de radar en el hielo determinadas con el método de punto medio común por Navarro y otros (2009). Las evidencias VII adicionales que aportamos en esta tesis son: 1) la presencia de estructuras típicas de régimen compresivo en la zona terminal del glaciar y de cizalla en los márgenes del mismo, y 2) la presencia de un estrato superficial de hielo frío (por encima de otro templado) en la zona de ablación de los tres lóbulos del Glaciar Hurd –Sally Rocks, Argentina y Las Palmas–, que alcanzan espesores de 70, 50 y 40 m, respectivamente. Este estrato de hielo frío está probablemente congelado al lecho subglaciar en la zona terminal (Molina y otros, 2007; esta tesis). Por último, nos ocupamos de la simulación numérica de la dinámica glaciar. Presentamos el modelo físico-matemático utilizado, discutimos sus condiciones de contorno y cómo éstas se miden en los trabajos de campo, y describimos el procedimiento de resolución numérica del sistema de ecuaciones parciales del modelo. Presentamos los resultados para los campos de velocidades, deformaciones y tensiones, comparando estos resultados con las estructuras observadas. También incluimos el análisis de las elipses de deformación acumulativa, que proporcionan información sobre las estructuras a las que puede dar lugar la evolución del estado de deformaciones y tensiones a las que se ve sometido el hielo según avanza, lentamente, desde la cabecera hasta la zona terminal del glaciar, con tiempos de tránsito de hasta 1.250 años, recogiendo así la historia de deformaciones en el glaciar. Concluyendo, ponemos de manifiesto en esta tesis que las medidas de campo de las estructuras y niveles de cenizas, las medidas de georradar y las simulaciones numéricas de la dinámica glaciar, realizadas de forma combinada, permiten caracterizar el régimen actual de velocidades, deformaciones y tensiones del glaciar, entender su evolución en el pasado y predecir su evolución futura. VIII IX Abstract The main objective of this thesis is to characterize the morphology and the state of strains and stresses of Hurd Glacier (Livingston Island, South Shetland Islands archipelago, Antarctica) through a combination of field observations, ground-penetrating radar measurements and numerical simulations. The morphology and the current state of strain and stresses are the expression of the dynamic evolution of the glacier from the past to recent times, and their analysis gives us the guidelines to be able to predict, with the support of numerical simulations, its future evolution. The first subject addressed is the study of structures that can be observed on the glacier surface. We describe the different techniques used (field measurements, photo- interpretation of orthophotos, geochemical analysis of volcanic ashes, etc.) and we present the analysis and interpretation of the morpho-structural results, as well as the correlation with geochemical analysis (XRF) between the volcanic ashes extruded to the surface of Hurd Glacier and those of Deception Island volcano, from which the ashes originate. This allows us dating the ashes as Tephra 1, corresponding to the 1970 eruption, Tephra 2, corresponding to the pre-1829 eruptions, and the Tephra 3 group, associated with older eruptions. Secondly we focus on the study of the structures present within the glacier, which are detected with the help of ground-penetrating radar. Once identified, we link these internal structures with those observed on the glacier surface. We also study the hydrothermal structure of the glacier, getting a series of additional evidences of its polythermal structure. Among the evidences available so far, we can mention those based on the value of the stiffness parameter of the constitutive relation of ice, determined by fitting dynamic models to observations, as done by Otero (2008), and those based on the velocity of propagation of the radar waves through the glacier ice, measured using the common midpoint method, as done by Navarro et al. (2009). The XI additional evidences that we provide in this thesis are: 1) the presence of structures typical of compressive regime in the terminal zone of the glacier, together with shear at its margins, and 2) the presence of a surface layer of cold ice (overlying a layer of temperate ice) in the ablation zone of the three lobes of Hurd Glacier –Sally Rocks, Argentina and Las Palmas–, reaching thicknesses of 70, 50 and 40 m, respectively. This cold layer is probably frozen to the subglacial bed in the terminal zone (Molina and others 2007; this thesis). Finally, we deal with the numerical simulation of glacier dynamics. We present the physical-mathematical model, discuss its boundary conditions and how they are measured in the field work, and describe the method of numerical solution of the model’s partial differential equations. We present the results for the velocity, strain and stress fields, comparing these results with the observed structures. We also include an analysis of the ellipses of cumulative deformation, which provide information about the structures that can result from the evolution of the strain and stress regime of the glacier ice as it moves slowly from the head to the snout of the glacier, with transit times of up to 1,250 years, so picking the history of deformation of the glacier. Summarizing, we show in this thesis that field measurements of structures and ash layers, ground-penetrating radar measurements and numerical simulations of glacier dynamics, performed in combination, allow us to characterize the current regime of velocities, strains and stresses of the glacier, to understand its past evolution and to predict its future evolution. XII Índice Resumen VII Abstract IX Índice XI Prefacio XVII Capítulo 1. Introducción 1 1.1 Motivación 1 1.2 Objetivos concretos y metodologías asociadas 3 1.3 Terminología básica 4 1.4 Estado del arte 5 1.5 Estructura de la tesis 10 Capítulo 2. Marco geomorfológico, estructural y volcanológico 13 2.1 Contexto geográfico de Isla Livingston y Península Hurd 13 2.2 Marco geológico y estructural de Isla Livingston y Península Hurd 15 2.2.1 Relieve y geología de Isla Livingston 16 2.2.2 Unidades litoestratigráficas de Península Hurd 17 2.2.3 Estructura de Península Hurd 19 2.3 Geomorfología de Península Hurd 22 2.4 Estudios previos de cenizas glaciares de Isla Livingston 25 Capítulo 3. Contexto climático y glaciológico 31 3.1 Evolución climática y glaciológica de la Antártida (Basado en ACCE) 31 3.1.1 A partir del Cretácico 32 3.1.2 El último millón de años 33 3.1.3 El Holoceno 34 3.1.4 Cambios durante el periodo instrumental 35 3.1.4.1 La circulación de la atmósfera a gran escala 35 3.1.4.2 Temperaturas atmosféricas 36 3.1.4.3 Precipitación en forma de nieve 39 3.1.4.4 El agujero de ozono Antártico 40 3.1.4.5 Criosfera marina y terrestre 40 3.1.4.6 Cambios en el nivel del mar 42 3.1.4.7 Océano Austral 42 3.2 Condiciones climáticas recientes de Península Hurd 44 Capítulo 4.
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