Oreskes CV AUG 2020
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Michael Oppenheimer, Princeton University SEMINAR SERIES
Addressing Cross-Disciplinary Challenges and Solutions SEMINAR SERIES Michael Oppenheimer, Princeton University “The Scientific Challenges of Climate Change” February 9, 12:00—1:30 PM Dickinson School of Law Lewis Katz Building—Room 118 (New building— corner of Bigler Rd. and Services Rd., University Park Parking in East Deck on Bigler Rd., Special Shuttle service*, or use Campus Shuttle) Michael Oppenheimer is the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Geosciences and International Affairs in the Woodrow Wilson School and the Department of Geosciences at Princeton University. He is also Director of the Program in Science, Technology and Environmental Policy (STEP) at the Woodrow Wil- son School and Faculty Associate of the Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences Program, Princeton Environmental Institute, and the Princeton Institute for International and Regional Studies. Oppenheimer is a long-time participant in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which shared the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007, serving most recently as a lead author of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report. His interests include science and policy of the atmosphere, particularly climate change and its impacts. Much of his research aims to understand the potential for “dangerous” outcomes of increasing levels of greenhouse gases by exploring the effects of global warming on ecosystems such as coral reefs, on the ice sheets, and on sea level,. He also studies the role played by nongovernmental organizations in the policy arena, the role of scientific learning and scientific assessment in decisions on problems of global change, and the potential value of precau- tionary frameworks. In the late 1980's, Dr. Oppenheimer and a handful of other scientists organized two workshops under the auspices of the United Nations that helped precipitate the negotiations that resulted in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (signed at the 1992 Earth Summit) and the Kyoto Protocol. -
Rapid Intensification of DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0134.1 Hurricanes Is Particularly Problematic
WILL GLOBAL WARMING MAKE HURRICANE FORECASTING MORE DIFFICULT? KERRY EMANUEL As the climate continues to warm, hurricanes may intensify more rapidly just before striking land, making hurricane forecasting more difficult. ince 1971, tropical cyclones have claimed about cyclone damage, rising on average 6% yr–1 in inflation- 470,000 lives, or roughly 10,000 lives per year, and adjusted U.S. dollars between 1970 and 2015 (CRED S caused 700 billion U.S. dollars in damages globally 2016). Thus, appreciable increases in forecast skill and/ (CRED 2016). Mortality is strongly dominated by a or decreases of vulnerability, for example, through small number of extremely lethal events; for example, better preparedness, building codes, and evacuation just three storms caused more than 56% of the tropical procedures, will be required to avoid increases in cyclone–related deaths in the United States since 1900. cyclone-related casualties. Tropical cyclone mortality and injury have been Unfortunately, there has been little improvement reduced by improved forecasts and preparedness, espe- in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts over the period cially in developed countries (Arguez and Elsner 2001; from 1990 to the present (DeMaria et al. 2014). While Peduzzi et al. 2012), but through much of the world hurricane track forecasts using numerical prediction this has been offset by large changes in coastal popula- models have steadily improved, there has been only tions. For example, Peduzzi et al. (2012) estimate that slow improvement in forecasts of intensity by these the global population exposed to tropical cyclone same models. Reasons for this include stiff resolu- hazards increased by almost threefold between 1970 tion requirements for the numerical simulations of and 2010, and they project this trend to continue for tropical cyclone intensity (Rotunno et al. -
Machine Learning of Atmospheric Turbulence in a Variational Multiscale Model Msc Thesis
Machine Learning of Atmospheric Turbulence in a Variational Multiscale Model MSc Thesis Martin Janssens Machine Learning of Atmospheric Turbulence in a Variational Multiscale Model MSc Thesis by Martin Janssens to obtain the degree of Master of Science at the Delft University of Technology, to be defended publicly on Tuesday August 27, 2019 at 10:00 AM. Student number: 4275780 Project duration: September 16, 2018 – August 28, 2019 Supervisor: Dr. S. J. Hulshoff, TU Delft Thesis committee: Dr. R. P.Dwight, TU Delft Dr. B. Chen, TU Delft An electronic version of this thesis is available at http://repository.tudelft.nl/. Cover image: The Starry Night, Vincent van Gogh Abstract Today’s leading projections of climate change predicate on atmospheric General Circulation Models (GCMs). Since the atmosphere consists of a staggering range of scales that impact global trends, but computational constraints prevent many of these scales from being directly represented in numerical simulations, GCMs require “parameterisations” - models for the influence of unresolved processes on the resolved scales. State- of-the-art parameterisations are commonly based on combinations of phenomenological arguments and physics, and are of considerably lower fidelity than the resolved simulation. In particular, the parameter- isation of low-altitude stratocumulus clouds that result from small-scale processes in sub-tropical marine boundary layers is widely considered the largest source of uncertainty that remains in contemporary GCMs’ prediction of the temperature response to a global increase in CO2. Improvements in the capacity of machine learning algorithms and the increasing availability of high- fidelity datasets from global satellite data and local Large Eddy Simulations (LES) have identified data-driven parameterisations as a high-potential option to break the deadlock. -
MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER Albert G. Milbank Professor of Geosciences
(Michael Oppenheimer) CURRICULUM VITA (May 2017) MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER Albert G. Milbank Professor of Geosciences and International Affairs, Department of Geosciences and the Woodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs, Princeton University Director, Center for Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy of the Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University Associated Faculty of: Princeton Environmental Institute Atmosphere and Ocean Sciences Program Princeton Institute for International and Regional Studies Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment Contact Information Robertson Hall 448 Princeton University Princeton, N.J. 08544 609-258-2338 Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.princeton.edu/step/people/faculty/michael-oppenheimer/ Other Professional Affiliations Visiting Professor, NYU School of Law Editor in Chief, Climatic Change Letters Co-editor in Chief, Climatic Change Science Advisor, Environmental Defense Fund Coordinating Lead Author, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fields of Specialization Physics and chemistry of the atmosphere; climate change, ozone depletion, acid deposition and air pollution: their effects on natural systems and society, and public policy responses. Education S.B. (Chemistry) M.I.T., 1966 Ph.D. (Chemical Physics) University of Chicago, 1970 Positions 1966-67 Teaching Assistant, University of Chicago 1971-73 Research Fellow, Harvard College Observatory 1 (Michael Oppenheimer) 1971-81 Astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics 1978-79 Visiting Astronomer, -
Roles for Socially-Engaged Philosophy of Science in Environmental Policy
Roles for Socially-Engaged Philosophy of Science in Environmental Policy Kevin C. Elliott Lyman Briggs College, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, and Department of Philosophy, Michigan State University Introduction The philosophy of science has much to contribute to the formulation of public policy. Contemporary policy making draws heavily on scientific information, whether it be about the safety and effectiveness of medical treatments, the pros and cons of different economic policies, the severity of environmental problems, or the best strategies for alleviating inequality and other social problems. When science becomes relevant to public policy, however, it often becomes highly politicized, and figures on opposing sides of the political spectrum draw on opposing bodies of scientific information to support their preferred conclusions.1 One has only to look at contemporary debates over climate change, vaccines, and genetically modified foods to see how these debates over science can complicate policy making.2 When science becomes embroiled in policy debates, questions arise about who to trust and how to evaluate the quality of the available scientific evidence. For example, historians have identified a number of cases where special interest groups sought to influence policy by amplifying highly questionable scientific claims about public-health and environmental issues like tobacco smoking, climate change, and industrial pollution.3 Determining how best to respond to these efforts is a very important question that cuts across multiple -
Climate.2007.73.Pdf
NEWS FEATURE What’s next for the IPCC? AMANDA LEIGH HAAG Now that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has spoken more clearly than ever — and policymakers are listening — it may be time to take a new direction. Amanda Leigh Haag reports on suggested ways forward. hen the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) W was awarded the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize together with former US vice president Al Gore in October, it was a crowning moment on an already stellar year for the climate-change icon. Th e release of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in early 2007 propelled the international body’s acronym to the status of a household name and reinforced its role as the defi nitive authority on climate change. Th e most recent report’s message was not dissimilar to those of the preceding three reports since 1990, but it came through in richer detail and with greater degrees of confi dence and consensus. Th e biggest diff erence was that this time the social climate seemed poised to receive it. “One of the reasons the Fourth Assessment was so eff ective was that the world was ready to hear it,” says Michael Oppenheimer, a climatologist PHOTOS PA at Princeton University in New Jersey and a lead author on AR4. But many are wondering what the IPCC Chairman Rajendra Pachauri, left, and United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon show the new foremost authority on climate change can synthesis report at a press conference. Scientists are now discussing what the focus and scope of future IPCC achieve from here. -
Breaking the Siege: Guidelines for Struggle in Science Brian Martin Faculty of Arts, University of Wollongong, NSW 2522 [email protected]
Breaking the siege: guidelines for struggle in science Brian Martin Faculty of Arts, University of Wollongong, NSW 2522 http://www.bmartin.cc/ [email protected] When scientists come under attack, it is predictable that the attackers will use methods to minimise public outrage over the attack, including covering up the action, devaluing the target, reinterpreting what is happening, using official processes to give an appearance of justice, and intimidating people involved. To be effective in countering attacks, it is valuable to challenge each of these methods, namely by exposing actions, validating targets, interpreting actions as unfair, mobilising support and not relying on official channels, and standing up to intimidation. On a wider scale, science is constantly under siege from vested interests, especially governments and corporations wanting to use scientists and their findings to serve their agendas at the expense of the public interest. To challenge this system of institutionalised bias, the same sorts of methods can be used. ABSTRACT Key words: science; dissent; methods of attack; methods of resistance; vested interests Scientists and science under siege In 1969, Clyde Manwell was appointed to the second chair environmental issues?” (Wilson and Barnes 1995) — and of zoology at the University of Adelaide. By present-day less than one in five said no. Numerous environmental terminology he was an environmentalist, but at the time scientists have come under attack because of their this term was little known and taking an environmental research or speaking out about it (Kuehn 2004). On stand was uncommon for a scientist. Many senior figures some topics, such as nuclear power and fluoridation, it in government, business and universities saw such stands can be very risky for scientists to take a view contrary as highly threatening. -
Edward R. Murrow
ABOUT AMERICA EDWARD R. MURROW JOURNALISM AT ITS BEST TABLE OF CONTENTS Edward R. Murrow: A Life.............................................................1 Freedom’s Watchdog: The Press in the U.S.....................................4 Murrow: Founder of American Broadcast Journalism....................7 Harnessing “New” Media for Quality Reporting .........................10 “See It Now”: Murrow vs. McCarthy ...........................................13 Murrow’s Legacy ..........................................................................16 Bibliography..................................................................................17 Photo Credits: University of Maryland; right, Digital Front cover: © CBS News Archive Collections and Archives, Tufts University. Page 1: CBS, Inc., AP/WWP. 12: Joe Barrentine, AP/WWP. 2: top left & right, Digital Collections and Archives, 13: Digital Collections and Archives, Tufts University; bottom, AP/WWP. Tufts University. 4: Louis Lanzano, AP/WWP. 14: top, Time Life Pictures/Getty Images; 5 : left, North Wind Picture Archives; bottom, AP/WWP. right, Tim Roske, AP/WWP. 7: Digital Collections and Archives, Tufts University. Executive Editor: George Clack 8: top left, U.S. Information Agency, AP/WWP; Managing Editor: Mildred Solá Neely right, AP/WWP; bottom left, Digital Collections Art Director/Design: Min-Chih Yao and Archives, Tufts University. Contributing editors: Chris Larson, 10: Digital Collections and Archives, Tufts Chandley McDonald University. Photo Research: Ann Monroe Jacobs 11: left, Library of American Broadcasting, Reference Specialist: Anita N. Green 1 EDWARD R. MURROW: A LIFE By MARK BETKA n a cool September evening somewhere Oin America in 1940, a family gathers around a vacuum- tube radio. As someone adjusts the tuning knob, a distinct and serious voice cuts through the airwaves: “This … is London.” And so begins a riveting first- hand account of the infamous “London Blitz,” the wholesale bombing of that city by the German air force in World War II. -
Statistical Language Backs Conservatism in Climate-Change
Forum Statistical Language Backs Conservatism in Climate-Change Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article-abstract/69/3/209/5382637 by United Nations Library Geneva user on 22 March 2019 Assessments SALVADOR HERRANDO-PÉREZ , COREY J. A. BRADSHAW , STEPHAN LEWANDOWSKY, AND DAVID R. VIEITES The scientific evidence for anthropogenic climate change is empirically settled, but communicating it to nonscientific audiences remains challenging. To be explicit about the state of knowledge on climate science, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has adopted a vocabulary that ranks climate findings through certainty-calibrated qualifiers of confidence and likelihood. In this article, we quantified the occurrence of knowns and unknowns about “The Physical Science Basis” of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report by counting the frequency of calibrated qualifiers. We found that the tone of the IPCC’s probabilistic language is remarkably conservative (mean confidence is medium, and mean likelihood is 66%–100% or 0–33%), and emanates from the IPCC recommendations themselves, complexity of climate research, and exposure to politically motivated debates. Leveraging communication of uncertainty with overwhelming scientific consensus about anthropogenic climate change should be one element of a wider reform, whereby the creation of an IPCC outreach working group could enhance the transmission of climate science to the panel’s audiences. Keywords: climate change, communication, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, terminology, uncertainty ommunicating scientific and statistical uncertainty and finally we identify challenges and propose future direc- C to nonacademic audiences, including policymakers, tions that could bolster the IPCC’s communication strategy is one of the most important challenges of modern sci- and the public transmission of climate science as a whole. -
Penny C. Sansevieri
:gBglb]^kl@nb]^mhIn[eb\bsbg` Zg]FZkd^mbg`rhnk;hhd PENNY C. SANSEVIERI New York FROM BOOK TO BESTSELLER :gBglb]^kl@nb]^mhIn[eb\bsbg` Zg]FZkd^mbg`Rhnk;hhd by Penny C. Sansevieri © 2007. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, mechanical or electronic, including photocopying and record- ing, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from author or publisher (except by a reviewer, who may quote brief passages and/or show brief video clips in a review). ISBN: 1-60037-088-8 (Hardcover) ISBN: 1-60037-085-3 (Paperback) ISBN: 1-60037-086-1 (eBook) ISBN: 1-60037-087-X (Audio) Published by: Morgan James Publishing, LLC 1225 Franklin Ave. Ste 325 Garden City, NY 11530-1693 Toll Free 800-485-4943 www.MorganJamesPublishing.com Interior Design by: Bonnie Bushman [email protected] MORE BOOKS BY PENNY C. SANSEVIERI GhgÛ\mbhg Get Published Today (Morgan James Publishing 2006) From Book to Bestseller (PublishingGold.com, Inc. 2005) No More Rejections: Get Published Today! (PublishingGold.com, Inc. 2005) No More Rejections: Get Published Today! ,QÀQLW\3XEOLVKLQJ Get Published! $QDXWKRU·VJXLGHWRWKH RQOLQHSXEOLVKLQJUHYROXWLRQ (1st Books, 2001) ?b\mbhg 7KH&OLIIKDQJHU (iUniverse, 2000) Candlewood Lake (iUniverse, 2006) To subscribe to our free newsletter send an e-mail to ln[l\kb[^9ZfZkd^mbg`^qi^km'\hf P^]eho^rhnk_^^][Z\d' A^k^lahpmh\hgmZ\mnl3 Author Marketing Experts, Inc. 3RVW2IÀFH%R[ San Diego, CA 92142 www.amarketingexpert.com [email protected] ?hk?kZgl The best dad a girl could ever have. -
Topics: Misinformation and Conspiracy Theories About Politics and Public Policy
PUBPOL 750.308: Topics: Misinformation and Conspiracy Theories about Politics and Public Policy Instructor: Prof. Brendan Nyhan Office: 4129 Weill Hall / 4408 ISR Classroom: 1210 Weill Hall Office hours: Thursday 9 AM{12 PM (Weill) Term: Winter 2019 (appts.: http://meetme.so/BrendanNyhan) Schedule: MW 2:30{3:50 PM Email: [email protected] \It is better to know less than to know so much that ain't so." {Josh Billings \A wise man should be humble enough to admit when he's wrong and change his mind based on new information." {Kanye West \Fearful Americans Stockpiling Facts Before Federal Government Comes To Take Them Away" {The Onion Overview of the course Why do people hold false or unsupported beliefs about politics and public policy and why are those beliefs so hard to change? This three-credit graduate course will explore the psychological factors that make people vulnerable to misinfor- mation and conspiracy theories and the reasons that corrections so often fail to change their minds. We will also analyze how those tendencies are exploited by political elites and consider possible approaches that journalists, civic reformers, and government officials could employ to combat misperceptions. Students will develop substantive expertise in how to measure, diagnose, and respond to false beliefs about politics and public policy; methodological expertise in reading and analyzing quantitative and experimental research in social science; and writing skills in preparing a policy memo making recommendations for how to address a prominent misperception and a final research paper analyzing the development of a specific misperception or conspiracy theory. Instructional approach Each class period will include a mix of lecture highlighting and expanding on key points from the readings and answering any questions about them, class discussion, and active learning exercises in which we critically examine the ideas introduced in the readings. -
The Trajectory of the Anthropocene: the Great Acceleration
ANR0010.1177/2053019614564785The Anthropocene ReviewSteffen et al. 564785research-article2015 Review The Anthropocene Review 1 –18 The trajectory of the © The Author(s) 2015 Reprints and permissions: Anthropocene: The Great sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav DOI: 10.1177/2053019614564785 Acceleration anr.sagepub.com Will Steffen,1,2 Wendy Broadgate,3 Lisa Deutsch,1 Owen Gaffney3 and Cornelia Ludwig1 Abstract The ‘Great Acceleration’ graphs, originally published in 2004 to show socio-economic and Earth System trends from 1750 to 2000, have now been updated to 2010. In the graphs of socio-economic trends, where the data permit, the activity of the wealthy (OECD) countries, those countries with emerging economies, and the rest of the world have now been differentiated. The dominant feature of the socio-economic trends is that the economic activity of the human enterprise continues to grow at a rapid rate. However, the differentiated graphs clearly show that strong equity issues are masked by considering global aggregates only. Most of the population growth since 1950 has been in the non-OECD world but the world’s economy (GDP), and hence consumption, is still strongly dominated by the OECD world. The Earth System indicators, in general, continued their long-term, post-industrial rise, although a few, such as atmospheric methane concentration and stratospheric ozone loss, showed a slowing or apparent stabilisation over the past decade. The post-1950 acceleration in the Earth System indicators remains clear. Only beyond the mid-20th century is there clear evidence for fundamental shifts in the state and functioning of the Earth System that are beyond the range of variability of the Holocene and driven by human activities.