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Climate.2007.73.Pdf NEWS FEATURE What’s next for the IPCC? AMANDA LEIGH HAAG Now that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has spoken more clearly than ever — and policymakers are listening — it may be time to take a new direction. Amanda Leigh Haag reports on suggested ways forward. hen the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) W was awarded the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize together with former US vice president Al Gore in October, it was a crowning moment on an already stellar year for the climate-change icon. Th e release of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in early 2007 propelled the international body’s acronym to the status of a household name and reinforced its role as the defi nitive authority on climate change. Th e most recent report’s message was not dissimilar to those of the preceding three reports since 1990, but it came through in richer detail and with greater degrees of confi dence and consensus. Th e biggest diff erence was that this time the social climate seemed poised to receive it. “One of the reasons the Fourth Assessment was so eff ective was that the world was ready to hear it,” says Michael Oppenheimer, a climatologist PHOTOS PA at Princeton University in New Jersey and a lead author on AR4. But many are wondering what the IPCC Chairman Rajendra Pachauri, left, and United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon show the new foremost authority on climate change can synthesis report at a press conference. Scientists are now discussing what the focus and scope of future IPCC achieve from here. Now that the world efforts should be. has woken up to the reality of climate change, largely thanks to the IPCC, do we really need periodic reminders of just how dangerous climate change may be, ‘synthesis report’ released in November urgent need for adaptation measures. or is it time that the IPCC focused its aft er careful deliberations by the scientists It is also being viewed as a blueprint eff orts elsewhere? at a week-long meeting in Valencia, Spain. to kick off the United Nations Climate Th e reports involved several years’ worth of Change Conference in Bali, Indonesia in SWEEPING SUMMARY commitment on the part of the scientists, December, where over 10,000 delegates are all on a voluntary basis. And hundreds now convening to discuss what will follow Th e role of the IPCC is not to carry out more experts from various ministries and the Kyoto Protocol to limit greenhouse gas or design research but rather to assess the government agencies attended the sessions emissions when it expires in 2012. massive body of peer-reviewed, published and approved the conclusions. literature relevant to climate change. Th e fi nal synthesis report is intended DILUTED RESULTS Some 2,500 reviewers, 800 contributing as an authoritative guidepost on climate authors and 450 lead authors from more change for policymakers, and rather Like any scientifi c endeavour of this than 130 countries contributed to the than just cutting and pasting from the scale, the IPCC has not been immune to Fourth Assessment, a fi ve-year eff ort that earlier summaries, it makes broader, criticism from both inside and outside the culminated in a 2,800-page, three-volume sweeping statements on issues such establishment. On one hand, in the US report released between February and as abrupt climate change, rapid sea- some members of the right-wing media April, three summary reports, and a fi nal level rise, species extinction and the have questioned whether the IPCC’s key 4 nature reports climate change | VOL 2 | JANUARY 2008 | www.nature.com/reports/climatechange NEWS FEATURE conclusions — namely about the human STRIKING A BALANCE contribution to climate change — represent a consensus at all1. On the other hand, Up until now, the IPCC has remained fi rm legitimate concerns from within the that it has represented the science correctly. scientifi c community have been voiced by “I think we struck the right balance,” says a few lead authors on AR4, who maintain Susan Solomon, a senior scientist with that portions of the earlier volumes of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric the report were diluted during the review Administration in Boulder, Colorado, and process and therefore understate the co-chair of the Fourth Assessment. “I think severity of climate change2. Th ey contend the fact that you see us being criticized by that in the eff ort to reach consensus, some both the left and the right is probably good key details and high-risk scenarios were not evidence that we did.” fully explored. Solomon disagrees that the initial Within the climate-science summaries for policymakers were remiss community, the most contentious issue, in their treatment of ice sheets and future perhaps, has been the way in which the sea-level rise. “We give numbers for which NASA potential contribution of melting ice there is information in the literature, sheets to sea-level rise was communicated but we can’t go beyond the literature,” in the summary report on the science of Solomon says. But the clarifi cation of the The IPCC has sharpened its description of impacts climate change. Although most climate- eff ects of ice sheets on sea-level rise in the from ice-sheet melting, after criticism from change experts agree that the Fourth fi nal synthesis report suggests that the some researchers. Assessment was an unqualifi ed success, IPCC is giving some ground on this issue. some scientists say that the summary Th ose previously dissatisfi ed now say that documents gave a false impression that the take-home message has largely been “One has to realize that traditionally the threat of sea-level rise was less severe salvaged in the synthesis, which recognizes this has been kind of a science assessment than previously thought, when in fact it that loss of the Greenland ice sheet, and written by scientists, mostly for scientists is now known to be a much greater threat possibly the Antarctic ice sheet, could and maybe a few politicians,” says than evidence suggested back in 2001. contribute to a considerable increase in sea Reto Knutti, a climate modeller with the Th is resulted in part from a diff erence level — even in this century — in ways that Institute for Atmospheric and Climate in the way the projections were calculated have not been considered fully in models. It Science in Zurich and a lead author on AR4. in the third and fourth reports, with the also acknowledges that partial or full loss of “Now everyone wants to know about climate Fourth Assessment’s summary on the the ice sheets could lead to several metres change, and there are diff erent audiences science of climate change stating that sea of sea-level rise over millennia. that we have to address.” level was likely to increase by a maximum Still, Rahmstorf and others contend of 59 centimetres by 2099, in contrast to that the IPCC does not fully explore FUTURE POSSIBILITIES the much higher estimate of 88 centimetres high-impact scenarios to the degree reported in 2001. What ensued was a needed to inform policymakers. He Although it remains to be determined great deal of confusion in the media and says, “In terms of risk assessment where the IPCC will now focus its eff orts, suggestions that the threat from sea-level of high-impact but hopefully small- suggestions for ways forward are being rise had diminished. But such a conclusion probability risks, the procedure wasn’t vigorously discussed within the climate was misplaced, and the disparity was an really very good.” But he also says community. Aside from improving eff orts artefact of the way the numbers were that the limitations of the report were at communicating climate change to the derived, says Stefan Rahmstorf, a climate communicated much more clearly in world at large, some climate scientists are scientist from Potsdam University in the synthesis. calling for a greater focus on solutions to Germany and a lead author on AR4, who policy-oriented questions in future reports. published a paper in Science shortly aft er One of the reasons the Fourth In cases where regulations are needed on the release of the Fourth Assessment ozone, aerosols, black carbon and other Report showing that the actual rate of sea- Assessment was so effective compounds that have indirect climate level rise could be as much as 1.4 meters by was that the world was ready to eff ects, policymakers would fi nd it useful 2100 (ref. 3). “So people got the impression to know which policies provide the greatest that things had changed when really they hear it. benefi t, Schmidt says. hadn’t — in fact, they’d gotten worse,” Michael Oppenheimer For instance, this could include says Gavin Schmidt, a climate modeller decisions such as whether or not to cap at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space sulphate emissions, which confer some Studies in New York and a contributing Solomon also concedes that there is cooling eff ects, or whether to cap both author on AR4. Others believe that part of room for improvement when it comes to sulphate and black carbon at the same the problem is that the richness of detail the IPCC’s communication, at least to the time. “Convincing policymakers that found in the chapters is not always refl ected public. “Communicating to the public is this is a problem is no longer the point,” adequately in the summaries, which are hard work, but I do think it’s extremely Schmidt says. Now, he says, the emphasis intended specifi cally for policymakers.
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