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Tidal Wetlands Authors: Danielle Kreeger, Ph.D., Partnership for the Delaware Estuary Jennifer Adkins, Partnership for the Delaware Estuary Priscilla Cole, Partnership for the Delaware Estuary Ray Najjar, Ph.D., Pennsylvania State University David Velinsky, Ph.D., Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia Paula Conolly, Philadelphia Water Department Consultant John Kraeuter, Ph.D., Rutgers University Contributors: David Bushek, Ph.D., Rutgers University Tracy Elsey-Quirk, Ph.D., Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia Tatjana Prša, Graduate Student, Villanova University Kurt Philipp, Wetland Research Service Sue Kilham, Ph.D., Drexel University For Referencing this Report: Kreeger, D., J. Adkins, P. Cole, R. Najjar, D. Velinsky, P. Conolly, and J. Kraeuter. June 2010. Climate Change and the Delaware Estuary: Three Case Studies in Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning. Partnership for the Delaware Estuary, PDE Report No. 10-01. 1 –117 pp. To access the report and appendices online visit: delawareestuary.org/science_projects_climate_ready_products.asp Acknowledgements: This work was made possible through funding from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Climate Ready Estuaries Program. We want to especially thank the many members of the Science and Technical Advisory Committee, Climate Adaptation Work Group and chairs of subcommittees who volunteered their time to make this effort possible. Established in 1996, the Partnership for the Delaware Estuary is a non-profit organization based in Wilmington, Delaware. The Partnership manages the Delaware Estuary Program, one of 28 estuaries recognized by the U.S. Congress for its national significance under the Clean Water Act. PDE is the only tri-state, multi-agency National Estuary Program in the country. In collaboration with a broad spectrum of governmental agencies, non-profit corporations, businesses, and citizens, the Partnership works to implement the Delaware Estuary’s Comprehensive Conservation Management Plan to restore and protect the natural and economic resources of the Delaware Estuary and its tributaries. 2 Climate Change and the Delaware Estuary PDE 10-01 Table of Contents List of Appendices ..............................................................................................................................5 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................6 Chapter 1 ......................................................................................................................................... 17 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 17 1.1 Climate Ready Estuaries – The Delaware Estuary Pilot .......................................................... 18 1.2 Approach ................................................................................................................................ 20 1.3 On the road to Adaptation Planning: Next Steps ................................................................... 22 Chapter 2 ......................................................................................................................................... 23 Climate Predictions .......................................................................................................................... 23 2.1 Temperature ............................................................................................................................ 24 2.2 Precipitation & Extreme Weather Events ................................................................................ 25 2.3 Other Climate Model Outputs ................................................................................................. 25 2.4 Sea-level .................................................................................................................................. 26 2.5 Salinity ..................................................................................................................................... 27 Chapter 3 ......................................................................................................................................... 28 Case Study #1: Tidal Wetlands .......................................................................................................... 28 3.1 Tidal Wetlands in the Delaware Estuary Watershed............................................................... 28 3.2 Tidal Wetlands – Approach to Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptation Options ................... 29 3.3 Wetland Work Group Inventories ........................................................................................... 30 3.4 Tidal Wetlands – Survey Methods ........................................................................................... 37 3.5 Tidal Wetlands – Vulnerability Assessment ............................................................................ 39 3.6 Tidal Wetlands - Adaptation Options ...................................................................................... 45 3.8 Tidal Wetlands - Synthesis ....................................................................................................... 53 3.9 Tidal Wetlands - Recommendations ....................................................................................... 57 Chapter 4 ......................................................................................................................................... 60 Case Study #2: Drinking Water ......................................................................................................... 60 4.1. Drinking Water in the Delaware Estuary Watershed .............................................................. 60 4.2. Drinking Water – Approach to Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptation Options ................... 63 4.3. Drinking Water Vulnerabilities ................................................................................................ 64 4.4 Drinking Water - Survey Methods ........................................................................................... 66 4.5 Drinking Water - Survey Results .............................................................................................. 67 3 Climate Change and the Delaware Estuary PDE 10-01 4.6 Drinking Water - Adaptation Options ..................................................................................... 71 4.7. Drinking Water – Identify Priority Research Needs ................................................................ 74 4.8 Drinking Water – Conclusions ............................................................................................... 78 Chapter 5 ......................................................................................................................................... 79 Case Study #3: Bivalve Shellfish ........................................................................................................ 79 5.1 Bivalves in the Delaware Estuary Watershed .......................................................................... 79 5.2 Bivalve Shellfish – Approach to Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptation Options .................. 83 5.3 Bivalve Work Group Inventories ............................................................................................. 84 5.4 Bivalve Shellfish - Survey Methods .......................................................................................... 90 5.5 Bivalve Shellfish – Vulnerability Assessment........................................................................... 92 5.6 Bivalve Shellfish - Adaptation Options .................................................................................... 97 5.7 Additional Information .......................................................................................................... 100 5.8 Bivalve Shellfish - Synthesis ................................................................................................... 107 5.9 Bivalve Shellfish – Recommendations for Next Steps ........................................................... 110 References ..................................................................................................................................... 111 4 Climate Change and the Delaware Estuary PDE 10-01 List of Appendices Climate Predictions A. Najjar, R. “Analysis of Climate Simulations for us in the Climate-Ready Adaptation Plan for the Delaware Estuary.” Pennsylvania State University, Department of Meteorology. December, 2009. B. Najjar, R. “Potential Impact of Climate Change on Salinity of the Delaware Estuary.” Pennsylvania State University, Department of Meteorology. March, 2010. C. Najjar, R. “Analysis of heat waves in models and observations for the Delaware Estuary Watershed” Pennsylvania State University, Department of Meteorology. February, 2010. D. Synthesis Report? E. hi Tidal Wetlands F. Elsey, T. and D. Velinsky. “Tidal Wetlands Case Study: “Delaware Estuary Climate Ready Estuary Pilot, Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning.” March 2010. G. Industrial Economics Incorporated. “Application of Ecological and Economic Models of the Impacts of Sea-Level Rise to the Delaware Estuary” Industrial Economics Incorporated. March, 2010. H. Velinsky, D., D. Kreeger and K. Philipp. Tidal Wetland Case Study Survey Results Drinking Water I. Conolly, P. and Thorpe, N. “Impacts of Climate Change on Drinking Water Supply: Findings from Existing
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