Poles Apart The international reporting of climate scepticism James Painter EDITORIAL COMMITTEE Timothy Garton Ash Ian Hargreaves David Levy Geert Linnebank John Lloyd Rasmus Nielsen James Painter Robert Picard Jean Seaton David Watson The editorial advisers on this book were Rasmus Kleis Nielsen and Max Boykoff Published by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism, Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Oxford, 13 Norham Gardens, Oxford, OX2 6PS Tel: 01865 611090 http://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk Typeset and printed by Hunts – people in print www.hunts.co.uk Text © James Painter 2011 All additional material © Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism The moral rights of the author have been asserted. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or disseminated or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, or stored in a retrieval system, or otherwise used in any manner whatsoever without prior written permission, except for permitted fair dealing under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. This paper represents the views of the author writing in an individual capacity, not a collective expression of views from the Reuters Institute. © RISJ November 2011 -- ISBN 978-1-907384-07-3 Cover image: © Steve Morgan/Greenpeace: Greenpeace crew members inspect a crack in the Larsen B ice shelf Poles Apart The international reporting of climate scepticism James Painter The Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism is very grateful to the following organisations for funding this study: The British Council The European Climate Foundation The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science Contents List of Figures List of Tables Executive Summary 1 1. Poles Apart 7 2. The Nature of Climate Scepticism 17 3. Climate Scepticism in the Media 35 4. A Comparison of Climate Scepticism in the Print Media of Six Countries 49 5. Country Studies 65 Brazil by Carlos Henrique Fioravanti and James Painter China by Rebecca Nadin and James Painter France by Kheira Belkacem and James Painter India by Anu Jogesh and James Painter USA 6. Climate Scepticism in the UK Print Media 91 7. Conclusion 111 Appendix 1. ‘Climategate’ 117 Appendix 2. Research Coding Sheet 119 Appendix 3. Methodology – Issues and Limitations 123 Appendix 4. List of Sceptics ‘Mentioned’ More than Once in Ten UK National Newspapers 128 Acronyms and Abbreviations 130 Bibliography 132 Acknowledgements 135 iii List of Figures 1.1. Temperature Anomalies in 2010 4.1. 2004–11 World Newspaper Coverage of Climate Change or Global Warming 4.2. Number of Articles Containing Sceptical Voices in Six Countries, 2007 and 2009/10 4.3. Articles Containing Sceptical Voices as % of Total Number of Articles in Six Countries, 2007 and 2009/10 5.1. Indian Newspaper Coverage of Climate Change or Global Warming, 2000–11 5.2. US Newspaper Coverage of Climate Change or Global Warming, 2000–11 6.1. UK Newspaper Coverage of Climate Change or Global Warming, 2000–11 6.2. Number of Articles Including Sceptical Voices in UK Print Media, 2007 and 2009/10 6.3. Number of Articles Including Sceptical Voices as % of Total Number of Articles, UK Print Media, 2007 and 2009/10 6.4. Sceptical Voices on Opinion Pages and Editorials as % of All Articles Including Sceptical Voices in UK Print Media, over Two Periods 6.5. Uncontested Sceptical Opinion Pieces or Editorials as % of All Articles in UK Print Media, 2009/10 List of Tables 4.1. Prevalence of Sceptical Voices in Six Countries’ Print Media, 2007 and 2009/10 4.2. Articles Containing Sceptical Voices by Type of Article, UK and US Newspapers, 2007 and 2009/10 (%) 4.3. Articles, Opinion Pieces, and Editorials Containing Sceptical Voices in Left- and Right-Leaning Newspapers in the UK and USA, 2007 and 2009/10 6.1. Daily and Sunday Circulation of UK National Newspapers, 2009–10 6.2. Prevalence of Sceptical Voices in Ten UK National Newspapers, 2007 and 2009/10 6.3. News Reports and Opinion Pieces Including Sceptical Voices as % of Total Number of Articles, UK Print Media over Two Periods 6.4. Condensed List of Climate Sceptics Executive Summary Executive Summary This is a wide-ranging comparative study about the prevalence of climate sceptic voices in the print media in six countries: Brazil, China, France, India, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America. More than 3,000 articles taken from two newspapers in each of the six countries were analysed over two separate three-month periods in 2007 and 2009/10. A further 1,900 articles were examined from the eight other national British newspapers over the same periods to give a more comprehensive picture of climate scepticism in the UK print media. The main aims of the study were to track any increase in the amount of space given to sceptical voices over the two periods and to map significant differences both between countries and within the print media of the same country. Because we were also interested in exploring whether there was a correspondence between the prevalence of sceptical voices and the political leaning of a newspaper, an example of a left- leaning and a right-leaning newspaper were selected in most countries. Before the content analysis, Poles Apart gives an overview of climate scepticism in different countries, and particularly in the USA, and suggests that it is predominately an Anglo-Saxon phenomenon. It then surveys past research on the prevalence of scepticism in the media around the world, again drawing a distinction between countries like the USA, the UK, and Australia, where it has often been present in parts of the media, and the developing world and continental Europe where it has been largely absent. Poles Apart goes to considerable lengths to describe the large variety of types of climate-sceptical voices that exist: from those who are sceptical that the world is warming, to those who are sceptical about the influence of humans in the warming, to those who are sceptical about the pace and extent of its impacts, to those who are sceptical about whether urgent action and government spending are necessary to combat it. The analysis attempted to separate the different types of sceptical voices, their background (professional or otherwise), and in which part of a newspaper they were most likely to appear. The main findings of the content analysis from the six-country comparative study are the following. 1 Poles Apart: The international reporting of climate scepticism First, the absolute number of articles which included sceptical voices increased for all but one (Le Monde in France) of the twelve newspapers over the two periods. However, expressed as a percentage of all the articles covering climate change or global warming, there were wide regional variations: strong increases in the case of the UK and US press, compared to mild increases or falls in Brazil, China, India, and France. Second, other substantial cross-country differences exist, endorsing the view that climate scepticism is much more widespread in UK and US newspapers than in the other four countries. r*OHFOFSBMUIF6,BOEUIF64QSJOUNFEJBRVPUFEPS mentioned significantly more sceptical voices than the other four countries. Together they represented more UIBOPGUIFUJNFTTVDIWPJDFTXFSFRVPUFEBDSPTT all six countries. r0WFSPGUIFBSUJDMFTXIFSFTVDIWPJDFTXFSFJODMVEFE were to be found in the opinion pages and editorials as compared to the news pages. But the print media in Brazil, China, India, and France had many fewer such pieces than those in the UK and the USA. r1PMJUJDJBOTSFQSFTFOUFEBSPVOEBUIJSEPGBMMUIFTDFQUJDBM WPJDFT RVPUFE PS NFOUJPOFE DPNQBSFE UP UIF MPXFS share (about a fifth) of university climate scientists. But the UK and American newspapers were much more MJLFMZUPRVPUFQPMJUJDJBOTUIBOUIFOFXTQBQFSTJOPUIFS countries. The four Anglo-Saxon newspapers accounted GPSPGBMMUIFUJNFTQPMJUJDJBOTXFSFRVPUFE'SBODF XBTUIFPOMZPUIFSDPVOUSZUPRVPUFOBUJPOBMQPMJUJDJBOT XIJMTUUIFPUIFSUISFFDPVOUSJFTFJUIFSRVPUFEOPOFPS politicians from other countries. rѮFTDFQUJDTXIPRVFTUJPOUIFSPMFUIBUIVNBOGBDUPST play in global warming had a higher incidence in the print media in Brazil, China, India, and France, SFQSFTFOUJOH OFBSMZ PG UIF TDFQUJDT RVPUFE PS mentioned. This compared with a figure of around 60% for the USA and the UK. Third, there is strong evidence that in the countries where sceptical voices appear in greater numbers, they are more likely to be found in right-leaning than left-leaning print media. In Brazil, France, and India, where few sceptic voices appear, there was little or no difference in the prevalence of sceptical viewpoints between the two print media chosen. However, in the case of the Anglophone countries, there does seem to 2 Executive Summary be a correspondence between the perspective of a newspaper and the prevalence of sceptical voices: r0WFSUIFUXPQFSJPET JOQFSDFOUBHFUFSNTJOUIF6, the left-leaning Guardian/Observer had fewer articles with sceptical voices than the right-leaning Daily and Sunday Telegraph (11% compared to 19%), despite the former’s extensive coverage of ‘Climategate’. In the USA, the NYT had slightly less than the WSJ (25% compared to 28%). r)PXFWFS UIFEJTUJODUJPOJTNVDINPSFNBSLFEJOUIF opinion pieces and editorials. The Telegraphs and WSJ had considerably more uncontested sceptical opinion pieces and/or editorials than the Guardian and NYT. For example, in the second period the Guardian had 11 opinion pieces including