TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS .............................................................................................................................................. 2 LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................................................... 3 LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................................................... 4 LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................................. 5 I. DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGE ........................................................................................................................... 8 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................................................. 8 GEOGRAPHICAL CONTEXT ................................................................................................................................................. 8 SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT ............................................................................................................................................ 10 ENVIRONMENTAL CONTEXT ............................................................................................................................................. 12 KOFIRNIGHAN RIVER BASIN ............................................................................................................................................ 16 ECOSYSTEM GOODS AND SERVICES ................................................................................................................................... 20 CLIMATE CHANGE CONTEXT ............................................................................................................................................ 23 II. STRATEGY .................................................................................................................................................... 36 III. RESULTS AND PARTNERSHIPS ...................................................................................................................... 53 IV. PROJECT RESULTS FRAMEWORK .................................................................................................................. 59 V. MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) PLAN ............................................................................................ 64 VI. GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT ARRANGEMENTS ................................................................................. 67 VII. FINANCIAL PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT ................................................................................................ 72 VIII. TOTAL BUDGET AND WORK PLAN ................................................................................................................ 74 IX. LEGAL CONTEXT ........................................................................................................................................... 79 X. RISK MANAGEMENT .................................................................................................................................... 80 XI. MANDATORY ANNEXES ............................................................................................................................... 83 ANNEX 1: PROJECT MAP AND GEOSPATIAL COORDINATES OF PROJECT SITES ............................................................................. 84 ANNEX 2: MULTI YEAR WORK PLAN ................................................................................................................................ 85 ANNEX 3: MONITORING PLAN ........................................................................................................................................ 87 ANNEX 4: UNDP’S SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCREENING PROCEDURE (SESP) .................................................................. 89 ANNEX 5: UNDP RISK LOG .......................................................................................................................................... 102 ANNEX 6: STANDARD LETTER OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN UNDP AND THE GOVERNMENT FOR THE PROVISION OF SUPPORT SERVICES 104 ANNEX 7: TERMS OF REFERENCES FOR KEY PROJECT STAFF ................................................................................................. 112 2 | P a g e LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1 MAP SHOWING THE FIVE ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS OF TAJIKISTAN, NAMELY SUGHD, KHATLON, DISTRICTS OF REPUBLICAN SUBORDINATION (DRS) (PREVIOUSLY KNOWN AS KAROTEGIN REGION), BADAKHSHAN AND DUSHANBE,. FIGURE 2. MAP: DESERTIFICATION PROCESSES AND TERRITORIES IN TAJIKISTAN AFFECTED BY INTER ALIA: I) MODERATE RISK OF MUDFLOWS (BROWN); II) HIGH RISK OF MUDFLOWS, HEAVY RAINFALL AND SURFACE WASH OF SOILS (YELLOW); III) DESERTIFICATION, LACK OF PRECIPITATION, WIND EROSION, SALINIZATION (PINK); IV) DEFORESTATION (X); V) OVERGRAZING (+); VI) SALINISATION (-); AND VII) DE-HUMIFICATION OF SOILS (O). FIGURE 3. MAP OF RIVER BASINS IN TAJIKISTAN, NAMELY BARTANG (LABELLED AS SYR DARYA), VAHKSH, PYANJ, KOFIRNIGHAN, ZARAFSHAN AND KARATAG. FIGURE 4. MAP OF KOFIRNIGHAN RIVER BASIN (OUTLINED IN BLACK) INDICATING THE MOST VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES TO EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS. COMMUNITIES ARE INDICATED BY A RED DOT. FIGURE 5. ILLUSTRATION OF THE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE (ºС) DEPARTURE FROM THE AVERAGE LONG-TERM NORM FOR THE PERIOD 1961– 1990 IN TAJIKISTAN. FIGURE 6 PROJECTED MEAN TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL FOR 2080–2099 AGAINST HISTORICALLY-MODELLED DATA FOR 1980–1999. FIGURE 7 MAP OF KOFIRNIGHAN RIVER BASIN (OUTLINED IN BLACK) INDICATING THE MOST VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES TO EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS. COMMUNITIES ARE INDICATED BY A RED DOT. 3 | P a g e LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1. KOFIRNIGHAN RIVER BASIN POPULATION NUMBERS ACCORDING TO CITIES AND VILLAGES. TABLE 2 A DESCRIPTION OF ECOSYSTEMS GOODS AND SERVICES IN TAJIKISTAN THREATENED BY CLIMATE-INDUCED AND ANTHROPOGENIC FACTORS. TABLE 3 TOTAL COUNTRYWIDE DAMAGES CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS. TABLE 4 ECONOMIC DAMAGES AS A RESULT OF CLIMATE HAZARDS OCCURRING WITHIN THE KOFIRNIGHAN RIVER BASIN, INCLUDING NUMBER OF EVENTS OCCURRING FROM 1998–2014 AND LOSSES IN LIFE. TABLE 5. EBA MEASURES THAT HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED AS SUCCESSFUL/POTENTIALLY SUCCESSFUL IN THE KRB. IN THE ‘APPLICABLE AREA’ COLUMN, ‘N’ DENOTES THE NORTHERN SUB-BASIN WHILE ‘S’ DENOTES THE SOUTHERN SUB-BASIN. TABLE 6 PROJECT RESULTS FRAMEWORK TABLE 7 MONITORING AND EVALUATION PLAN AND BUDGET TABLE 8 TOTAL BUDGET AND WORK PLAN TABLE 9 SUMMARY OF FUNDS: 4 | P a g e LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS Adaptation Strategy of Adaptation to Climate Change, Prevention and Minimization of its Adverse Effects Strategy ADB Asian Development Bank AF Adaptation Fund AFO Administrative/Finance Officer ALRI Agency for Land Reclamation and Irrigation AWP Annual Work Plan BCPR Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery BMU Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety CAC Central Asia and the Caucasus CACAARI Central Asia and the Caucasus Association of Agricultural Research Institutions CA-CRM Central Asian Multi-Country Programme on Climate Risk Management CAFT Climate adaptation through sustainable forestry in important river catchment areas in Tajikistan CAREC Central Asian Regional Economic Cooperation CBD Strategy National Strategy and Action Plan on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Biodiversity CBOs Community-based organisations CCA Climate change adaptation CDP Combined Delivery Report CEP Committee for Environmental Protection CGIAR Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research CIA Central Intelligence Agency CSA Climate-smart Agriculture DDPs District Development Plans DoG Department of Geology DRMP UNDP Disaster Risk Management Programme DRR Disaster risk reduction EDB Eurasian Development Bank EbA Ecosystem-based Adaptation EIAs Environmental Impact Assessments EPs Enterprise Plans ESMF Environmental and Social Management Framework ESP March 2016 Revision of the Environmental and Social Policy of the Adaptation Fund FAO The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations FFSs Farmer Field Schools GBAR Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region GCF Green Climate Fund GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment Facility GHG Greenhouse gas GHG Strategy Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy GINA Global Database on the Implementation of Nutrition Action GIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GLOFs Glacial lake outburst floods GoT Government of Tajikistan Hydromet State Agency for Hydrometeorology ICAS Initiatives in Critical Agrarian Studies ICARDA International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas ICR Intelligent Character Recognition IDA International Development Association IDS Institute for Development Studies IEF Impact evaluation framework 5 | P a g e ILO International Labour Organisation IMCC Inter-Ministerial Coordination Council IMS Information Management Systems INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution ISS International Institute of Social Studies IW Inception Workshop IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management KRB Kofirnighan River Basin KRBMP Kofirnighan River Basin Plan and Management Plan LITACA Livelihood Improvement in Tajik-Afghan Cross-border Areas LSIS Living Standards Improvement Strategy of Tajikistan for 2013–2015 LUP Land-use planning M&E Monitoring and evaluation Masl Metres