The United States and the Persian Gulf Gulf Persian the and States United The The United States and the Institute for National Strategic Studies Persian Gulf: Reshaping National Defense University Security Strategy for the Post-Containment Era Edited by Richard D. Sokolsky, with contributions from Richard L. Kugler • Joseph McMillan Kenneth M. Pollack The United States Eugene B. Rumer • Judith S. Yaphe Reshaping Security Strategy Since 1991, the United States has followed a policy of dual containment in the Persian Gulf. Regardless of how events in Iraq unfold, this policy will and the not be viable in the years ahead. Consequently, the United States will need to make significant changes in its security strategy for this vital region. for the Post-Containment Era This book examines the factors that will transform the security environment in the Gulf and the issues and options the United States will Persian Gulf face in crafting a comprehensive post-containment strategy. Each chapter presents an approach to thinking about the difficult tradeoffs that will have to be made between the U.S. military presence and force posture for the region, American defense policy, and broader political implications for the global war on terrorism. SOKOLSKY Edited by The Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) is a component of the National Defense University (NDU). Its programs and core missions include: policy research and analysis and other support to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Office of the Secretary of Defense, unified commands, and other U.S. Government agencies in developing Richard D. Sokolsky and advancing national security strategy and defense policy; support of NDU educational missions, other professional military education institutions, and interagency training programs by providing regional and functional expertise and state-of-the-art strategic gaming and simulation exercises; and conducting outreach activities, including an extensive program of publications and conferences, to inform the national security and defense policy debate in the United States and abroad. Cover photos [from top to bottom]: Advancing through Kuwait (DOD); steaming in the Mediterranean (John L. Beeman, USS Harry S. Truman); conducting desert exercise (Michael Sandberg Fleet Combat Camera, Atlantic); and taking off from Saudi Arabia (Timothy Cook, 52d Communications Squadron). The United States and the Persian Gulf Reshaping Security Strategy for the Post-Containment Era The United States and the Persian Gulf Reshaping Security Strategy for the Post-Containment Era edited by Richard D. Sokolsky NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY PRESS WASHINGTON, D.C. 2003 The opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are those of the contributors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Department of Defense or any other agency or department of the Federal Government. This publica- tion is cleared for public release; distribution unlimited. Portions of this work may be quoted or reprinted without further permission, with credit to the Institute for National Strategic Studies. A courtesy copy of any reviews and tearsheets would be appreciated. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The United States and the Persian Gulf : reshaping security strategy for the post-containment era / edited by Richard D. Sokolsky. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 1–57906–062–5 1. Middle East—Relations—United States. 2. United States—Relations—Middle East. 3. War on Terrorism, 2001– 4. United States—Politics and government—2001– 5. Iraq—Politics and government—1991– I. Sokolsky, Richard. DS63.2.U5U543 2003 327.73056'09'0511—dc21 2003000089 First Printing, February 2003 NDU Press publications are sold by the U.S. Government Printing Office. For ordering infor- mation, call (202) 512–1800 or write to the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. For GPO publications on-line access their Web site at: http://www.access.gpo.gov/su_docs/sale.html. For current publications of the Institute for National Strategic Studies, consult the National Defense University Web site at: http://www.ndu.edu. Contents Preface .................................. ix Acknowledgments ........................ xi Chapter One Introduction ............................. 3 Richard D. Sokolsky Chapter Two U.S. Interests and Objectives ................ 9 Joseph McMillan Chapter Three Gulf Security Perceptions and Strategies ..... 37 Judith S. Yaphe Chapter Four The Regional Military Balance .............. 61 Kenneth M. Pollack Chapter Five U.S. Defense Strategy and Force Planning .... 89 Richard L. Kugler vii viii CONTENTS Chapter Six The Role of Outside Powers ................ 117 Richard D. Sokolsky and Eugene B. Rumer Chapter Seven Policy Implications and Recommendations ... 145 Richard D. Sokolsky and Joseph McMillan About the Contributors .................... 159 Preface As this book goes to press in early 2003, U.S.-led military action to eliminate Iraqi weapons of mass destruction and to create postwar condi- tions that could support democratic political development appears increas- ingly likely. However that operation unfolds, it will mark an end to the decade-long policy of containment of Iraq and set the stage for a new Amer- ican approach to security cooperation and political engagement throughout the Persian Gulf. The chapters in this book offer a timely and sustainable roadmap for a new U.S. strategy and military posture in the region. The presence of U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf, particularly in Saudi Arabia, has been a highly contentious issue in the Arab world since the Persian Gulf War of 1991. While this presence gave the United States and its coalition partners new flexibility in containing Saddam Husayn, man- aging regional stability, and ensuring access to oil, it also exacerbated anti-American sentiment, particularly among the more devout and dis- affected youth in the region. Removal of that presence and of the gov- ernments that allowed it became a rallying cry for Osama bin Laden and in the development of the terrorist jihad of al Qaeda. However, as con- tributors to this volume make clear, even in the absence of the new de- mands of the global war on terrorism, other regional political and strate- gic developments, as well as the erosion of international support for dual containment, warrant a reshaping of that military presence. Moreover, the continued transformation of U.S. military forces, including the en- hancement of expeditionary and long-range power projection capabili- ties, could allow for a reduced forward presence in the Gulf. Managing such a transition will require a comprehensive regional strategy and reduction of the Iraqi threat to the region. Washington’s scope for action will be greatly influenced by how military action against Iraq unfolds and what conclusions other countries in the region draw from it. But the contributors to this volume make a compelling case that regardless of the nature of regime change in Iraq, there are persuasive political and geostrategic reasons for the United States to make major changes in its ix x PREFACE military posture and regional security strategy. Equally important, the contributors offer principles for effective promotion of the political and economic reforms that are essential to addressing the root causes of ter- rorism and many of the region’s fundamental problems. Stephen J. Flanagan Director, Institute for National Strategic Studies and Vice President for Research National Defense University Acknowledgments I wish to thank my colleagues in the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) at the National Defense University (NDU), both past and present, for their contributions to this study. INSS convened a series of working group meetings on Persian Gulf security in 2001 to examine the trends shaping the regional security environment and their implications for U.S. security strategy and force posture in the Persian Gulf. I am grateful to the following individuals for their presentations and partici- pation at these sessions: Rachel Bronson, Council on Foreign Relations; Stephen Grummon; Emile Nakleh; James Placke, Cambridge Energy Research Associates; Kenneth Pollack, The Brookings Institution; Paul Pillar; Harold R. Rooks; James Russell; Stephen Ward; Wayne White; and Jeffrey K. Wichman. I owe a special thanks to F. Gregory Gause of the University of Ver- mont for his many helpful suggestions on the manuscript and to James A. Schear, director of research at INSS, and Stephen J. Flanagan, director of INSS, for their guidance and sage counsel in shepherding the manuscript to completion. My thanks go as well to Toshi Yoshihara at the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis for his contribution to chapter six and to Kathleen Ridolfo and Irene Tragos for their research assistance and help in organizing the Persian Gulf study group sessions. Thanks are due to the editorial staff of National Defense University Press—General Editor William R. Bode and editors George C. Maerz, Lisa M. Yambrick, and Jeffrey D. Smotherman—who brought this publi- cation to completion under the supervision of Robert A. Silano, director of publications. This study is the result of a truly collaborative endeavor and would not have been possible without the time, knowledge, and wisdom contributed by a number of academic and U.S. Government experts on the Persian Gulf and greater Middle East. While their contributions were of enormous value, I bear sole responsibility