CENTRAL ASIA Funded By

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY CENTRAL ASIA Funded by

The Environment and Security (ENVSEC) Initiative – comprising the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe (REC) - was launched in 2003 at the Fifth Environment for Europe Ministerial Conference in Kiev, Ukraine to jointly strengthen national capacities, regional co-ordination mechanisms and international co-operation for environment and security risk reduction. Since then, the Initiative has developed into a unique multi-agency programme operating in four regions: Eastern Europe, South Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia. The ENVSEC Initiative provides holistic solutions to environmental challenges including to security challenges induced by climate change.

Disclaimer

“The views, opinions, conclusions in this document are not necessarily endorsed by ENVSEC partner organizations. ENVSEC partner organizations do not assume liability for the usage of the information contained in this publication. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication does not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of the ENVSEC partner organizations concerning the legal status of any country or territory of its authority, or concerning the delineation of its frontiers and boundaries.” Climate Change and Security in Central Asia

Linkages between Climate Change and Security

Once only considered as an “environmental issue,” risk, which in turn can push people to migrate on a large climate change is increasingly being included as an scale or to turn to illegal sources of income. Disruption inherent element of national and international security of food production and increasing food prices can lead to agendas. It is seen as a “threat multiplier,” exacerbating social instability, violent protests and civil unrest. Impacts existing threats to security and increasing environmental on energy production caused by higher temperatures stress, adding to pressures that can push the responsive and lower precipitation, as well as threats to energy capacities of governments to their limits. production and transmission infrastructure from extreme weather events put supply chains and energy security Climate change can impact security in a number of ways. at risk. Increasing demand for water and an unreliable Increasing competition over access to natural resources supply increase pressure on existing water governance can lead to conflict situations if no effective dispute arrangements and can complicate political relations, in resolution mechanisms are in place. Increasing frequency particular at transboundary basins already affected by of climate-induced extreme weather events and disasters tensions. can aggravate political instability and put livelihoods at

Co-operation on Climate Change Adaptation as a contributor to strengthening security

Addressing the security risks induced by climate change is important and calls for continued and proactive risk management. Climate change co-operation and climate diplomacy are good entry points for contributing to preventing tensions and strengthening trust. They can also have significant benefits for broader relations between countries.

3 Climate Change and Security in Central Asia 4 1 and Securit environmental andsecurity co-operation especiallyvulnerable. are instability. withweak institutions Areas orlacking theeffective mechanismstransboundary for or livelihoods, orcompromise security or by exacerbating politicalorsocial tensions, conflicts pathwaysone ormore socialoreconomic patterns, toundermine isexpected threaten infrastructure ongoing climate change tensions, environmental orboth.Ineach hotspots, ofthese through concerns Climate identifiable are change in andare characterized by geographic terms, andsecurity hotspots A Uzbekistan Republic ofTajikistan, Turkmenistan andtheRepublic of the Republic theKyrgyz of Kazakhstan, Republic, the response. The project countries inCentral Asia include threats to security, andto propose effective measures in how climate andexplain identify change may exacerbate Caucasus”Asia and the Southern with the overall goal to “Climate Change inEastern Europe, andSecurity Central conducted intheframework oftheENVSECproject late 2013to 2016. The assessment participatory was andtheAustrianStability Development from Agency in partnership with theEuropean UnionInstrument for inCentral AsiaSecurity conducted theENVSECInitiative by assessmentparticipatory process on Climate Change and hot-spots).security were They identified during a regional most vulnerable geographic areas (climate change and This brief offers insights implications onthesecurity and R Climate Ch result ofanalysis ofpolitical, socioeconomic andenviron- were identified together with stakeholders are alsoa The climate change implications induced security that who took part innational andregional consultations. about 190national stakeholders (~80women, ~110men), stakeholder consultations andconsiders theperception of desk research andanalysis andthrough extensive multi- The assessment was conducted acombination as of

ssessment ofClimate Ch positions andconclusions highlighted intheregional assessment, with national policy, processes andpriorities. The G egional P overnment oftheRepublicovernment ofUzbekistan does notassociate with thepreparation oftheregional assessment, including the information, 1 . y Hotspots ange and Securit articipator ange y A including: of perceived risks andcontext-specific concerns security lying factors.The assessment considers abroad range mental conditions well governance as as issues under as

Livelihood andrural) (urban insecurity Human andeconomic losses natural resources Additional pressure andcompetition over scarce energy andwaterenergy insecurity Seasonal orpersistent water shortages andpossible including oftailings stability Damage to infrastructure; industrial concerns, safety Diminished ecosystem services pastures andgenetic resources Biodiversity losses andpossible loss offish stocks, Increased socialtensions andconflicts Changes intrade patterns andeconomic impacts diseases, anddeclines inhumanhealth Increased rates andwider geographic spread of diminished well-being Loss ofsources or ofincome andincreased poverty crime Decreased physical andpossible security growth in Displacement andincreased migration Land degradationLand andloss ofarable land Implications for cultural andnatural heritage ssessment of y R isks - The identified hotspots reflect the judgement of the Other existing political, socioeconomic and authors of the assessment and the stakeholders as well as environmental factors the outcomes of the national and regional consultations conducted in 2014 and 2016. Following aspects have been The main findings of the assessment for Central Asia considered: are presented below and offer insights on the identified security implications and most vulnerable geographic Existing or prospective vulnerability to climate change areas (climate change and security hotspots) and Existing instability or security risks necessary measures for Central Asia to address the Analytical conclusions regarding the connections identified security implications. between climate change and security

Regional Outlook on Climate Change and Security for Central Asia: Main Trends

In Central Asia, climate change will put additional stress on In densely populated areas many people may be at risk of water resources, the agriculture and energy sector and will food insecurity and the effects of heatwaves, especially in likely have consequences for individual countries as well as places with competition for natural resources. the region as a whole. Large-scale labour migration, in particular of male and Water is a key natural resource in the region and water working-age youth, increases the stress on most vulner- security is a priority, especially in cases of transboundary able groups including women, children and elderly who stay water resources. Over the medium term (2030-2050), behind. They are exposed to crop failures, extreme weather population growth and economic development are likely to and natural disasters, which tend to increase due to climate increase demand for water and land resources in Central change and they have less capacity to respond to such Asia. Climate and water projections show a sufficient supply climate change impacts. for the next 10-15 years, but between 2030 and 2050 the region is expected to pass the peak of water availability All countries of the region have developed national strate- in many medium and small rivers across the interior and gies and actions plans on climate change and for transition southern areas. to low-carbon economies, and have launched projects on mitigation and adaptation. With regard to climate change In the long term, the rate of climate change and the severity mitigation, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turk- of its consequences, coupled with population dynamics and menistan submitted their Intended Nationally Determined socioeconomic status, will be among the main factors that Contributions to the United Nations Framework Conven- determine peace and prosperity. tion on Climate Change in 2015, and through this process elevated climate change discussions to the highest policy The mountains are particularly vulnerable to climate change levels. where melting glaciers and permafrost disrupt water regimes and threaten ecosystems, where natural disasters are more Beyond these efforts to address climate change and its prevalent and more damaging, and where poverty is higher. impacts, so far climate change has not been included in In dry and low-water years, competition for pastures and any of the national security strategies of the countries of local water resources increases, and water diversions that the region. disadvantage others may lead to tensions. The situation in the mountains as well as in densely populated areas and the southern borders of Central Asia, warrant ongoing attention.

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T a r im Kuqa 1 densely populated areas (high security risk by 2030) incl. the Ferghana valley

Areas like the Ferghana valley as well as large irrigated oases, mainly along the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers, as well as piedmont metropolitan areas are characterized by high population density and relatively scarce water and land resources shared across borders. Partly affected by tensions and instability already in the past, the security risks could increase if security of livelihoods, water, energy and food decreases due to climate change.

KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

Establish a participatory approach and dialogue for Introduce agriculture and water reforms to boost sharing vital natural resources (water, arable land resilience and to address long-term climate change and pastures), especially during extreme and adverse impacts weather events Introduce climate change resilient and reliable crops, Promote good neighbourly relations and introduce early develop insurance schemes in rural areas to support warnings/preventive measures to reduce tensions over vulnerable groups in case of extreme weather events limited natural resources Increase the share of locally available energy sources Introduce measures and a regime to mitigate impacts through energy diversification to enhance energy of high temperatures, drought and other extreme security and increase the share of renewable sources weather events with regard to human health and Rehabilitate tailings and waste sites and fortify other labour conditions, with a focus on vulnerable groups infrastructure that threatens downstream populated Improve accessibility to clean water and sanitation areas with potentially hazardous material in combination with preventive measures to reduce Implement action plans and programmes to forecast epidemics and dangerous infections natural disasters and to minimize their impacts, Improve the efficiency of resource use (water, arable especially for critical infrastructure land and pastures) with modern technology approaches Conduct public awareness campaigns to ensure growing in conjunction with traditional methods awareness on potential security implications induced by climate change

2 Remote areas on the Afghan border (high security risk by 2030)

Central Asia’s southern remote areas, notably the Tajik-Afghan and the Turkmen-Afghan border areas have been identified as climate change and security hotspots in light of extreme weather events intensified by climate change and their exposure to spill-over of instability.

KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

Promote scientific, business and educational ties with Conduct afforestation and reforestation on the neighbouring countries, including on environmental, southern borders of Central Asia to improve energy, food security and climate change threats microclimates, combat erosion, protect infrastructure within the framework of multilateral and bilateral and reduce dust storms arrangements and the Economic Cooperation Develop and implement warning and response Organization mechanisms to deal with natural disasters and Exchange information and experience and implement extreme weather events, and develop co-operation in pilot projects with neighbouring countries on monitoring activities assessment of climate change impacts and risk reduction regarding livelihoods, preservation of agricultural biodiversity and monitoring of and responses to malaria, pests and dust storms

7 3 high mountain areas (MEDIUM security risk by 2030) incl. the Ferghana valley

Mountain communities have increased vulnerability due to high poverty and isolation, frequent natural disasters, visible climate change effects and sporadic discontent and unrest in some mountainous regions.

KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

Provide remote sensing in hard-to-reach areas devastating flash flooding and floods)

Diversify income and food sources Incorporate climate change content into planning Diversify power generation and channels of energy and maintenance of critical infrastructure (impact of imports and exports in order to reduce the risk of melting permafrost and avalanches or landslides on energy crises in extreme weather events (scarce water, communication routes, hazardous waste storage sites cold waves and low water flow in large and small rivers and mines)

4 Central Asia breadbasket (low security risk by 2030)

The grain-producing area in northern Kazakhstan has been identified as a regional climate change hotspot, although security implications in the national context are low thanks to stable economic policies. Soaring grain prices or crop deficits may however undermine food security in the region.

KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

Facilitate farming practices that use zero soil tilling and test crop types resilient to extreme events

5 the Amu Darya River Basin (medium security risk by 2030)

The Amu Darya Basin is highly dependent on irrigation and hydropower with already existing disagreements on water usage, and is characterized by environmental degradation, in particular in the delta area. Reinforced by climate change, this might have severe impacts for water, food, livelihood and human security with strong cross-border implications.

KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

Identify and improve water use practices for the reduction of damage to vulnerable areas from climate Strengthen the role of and support the International change Fund for Saving the Aral Sea with regards to its activities in water management of the Amu Darya Engage all countries of the basin (including River Afghanistan) in monitoring, forecasting, assessment and current and long-term water planning and use

8 6 the Syr Darya River Basin (medium security risk by 2030)

The Syr Darya River is highly regulated for irrigation and hydropower purposes. The basin also faces risks from toxic and radioactive waste. The current water allocation regime might come under threat from changing water availability due to climate change which might increase water, food, and socioeconomic insecurity.

KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

Strengthen capacities at local level on adaptation to Continue to improve early warning bulletins for the Syr climate change and security risks including through Darya River experience replication I mprove transboundary co-ordination mechanisms and Develop a common understanding of climate change ensure that obligations are met impacts and search for mutually acceptable solutions to the water-food-energy nexus dilemmas Strengthen the role of and support to the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea with regards to its activities in water management of the Syr Darya River

7 the Zarafshan River Basin (medium security risk by 2030)

The Zarafshan River, shared by Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, suffers risk of upstream pollution from growing industrial activities and mining and downstream pollution from agriculture, and faces increased water insecurity due to climate change impacts which could affect interstate relations.

KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

Facilitate development of a common understanding Enhance sharing of information related to climate of climate change impacts and search for shared change and natural disasters approaches Increase water use efficiency in combination with Develop a system for forecasting seasonal and long- traditional methods term flows

8 the Ili River and Balkhash Lake (medium security risk by 2030)

Lake Balkhash in southeastern Kazakhstan is the largest lake in Central Asia and fed mainly by the Ili River, which originates in China. The fragile ecological balance of the lake is at risk by human, economic and climate change impacts, which affect the population in the basin and pose a challenge for transboundary water management.

KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

Incorporate climate change into planning and use of Support transboundary dialogue and co-operation on water resources and economic development management of water resources and climate change adaptation

9 9 the Chu and Talas River Basins (LOW security risk by 2030)

The Chu and Talas River Basins, shared by Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, are an important economic area for agriculture, hydropower and mining sectors with a growing population. While climate change might decrease the availability of water, the good co-operation mechanisms that are already in place between the two countries minimize the security risks.

KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

Continue discussions on climate change impacts in the Evaluate investment costs for eco-friendly services and transboundary context and enhance co-operation on adaptation measures adaptation

10 The Caspian Sea and coastline (medium security risk by 2030)

Being rich in oil and gas resources, the Caspian Sea is economically important and at the same time vulnerable to climate change and water level fluctuations. Climate change might affect economic and livelihood security, and the unclear marine borders might make joint responses more difficult.

KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

Extend practices of climate risks assessments for Improve water supplies for local populations and vulnerable infrastructure and onshore and offshore oil minimize oil sector impacts on the environment and and gas production sites on income sources (fisheries, pastures and the others)

11 The Aral Sea and coastline (LOW TO medium security risk by 2030)

The tragedy of the Aral Sea is likely to continue due to higher temperatures and due to low run-off reaching the sea, even though the situation in the northern part has improved. Anthropogenic pressure on water resources remains the major risk factor. Climate change will intensify water and environmental insecurity of the affected population.

KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

Introduce additional, and support current, practices Develop and implement comprehensive public awareness and ongoing efforts to cut back on environmental campaigns on climate security, adaptation measures migration, and maintain adequate living conditions and personal responsibility in the field of risk reduction

10 ular G the 2030Agenda for Sustainable Development, in partic their undertheParis commitments Agreement well as as ment will alsosupport countries inimplementation of sustainable development. ENVSEC’s continued engage within abroader context ofenvironment, security, and assist countries to adapt of to theeffects climate change development, can jointlyment, and economics security mandatesand complementary and expertise in environ- The organizations ENVSECpartner with their specialized ronmental circumstances. into account changing socioeconomic, political andenvi- climate change risk andsecurity which assessments take terrelation with e.g. security through conducting indepth knowledge on climate base change andtheir impacts in- lowing areas: addressing climate change risks and security in the fol- to continue their support to thecountries oftheregion in ted to mobilize political interest andfinancial resources to climate ch areas ofengagementKey may include: well more consistent as and targeted international support. Initiative, call for strengthened regional co-operation as matching thepriorities oftheEnvironment andSecurity including oftheproposedSome areas ofintervention, those for security. tackle ofclimate theimpacts change andtheimplications take swift actions from thelocalto theregional level to oftheCentralsupport thegovernments Asian countries to mate change among andthepublic could policy-makers Growing awareness implications aboutthesecurity ofcli- L in addressing climate ch C

g a ookin ontinued eng Key area 1: TechnicalKey assistance to enhance the adaptation andresponse measures sessments, andsearch for common approaches to projections well as as impact as and vulnerability of information inthe preparation ofclimate change Facilitate cross-border co-ordination andexchange areas hotspot security rity, inparticular intheidentified climate change and ations into policies andmeasures to strengthen secu- Incorporate climate change consider andsecurity oal 13.The ENVSEC Initiative are partners commit -ho head ange and securit a gement ofENVSEC w to streng ange and securit - - - - - activities well as in thedecision-making as process. engagement to participate in mitigation and adaptation climate change while promoting andsecurity stakeholder ings andsharing ofexperience andlessons learnedon formation andawareness raising campaigns, mediatrain- with Aarhus Centres will continue to organize publicin- tential adaptation together measures: ENVSECpartners awareness of climate impacts on security change and po- on climate change risk andsecurity reduction activities training sharing andby ofexperience andlessons learned adaptationregional/transboundary strategies, providing to address climate change risks e.g. through developing tutions andcapacities at national andregional levels and jointrisk reduction measures and exchange of information onclimate change impacts, operation e.g. through facilitating cross-border co-ordination reduce oravoid these disasters. solutions andproper planning, canhelp significantly to systems and regular monitoring, alongside engineering damage to critical infrastructure, forecasts, early warning treme weather that events may lead to and casualties andprevent instabilities.hotspots offuture Incase ex agriculture practices canenhance theresilience inthese and enclaves, introducing advanced water and technology Raising living standards, reducing isolation ofregions litical andsocioeconomic forces undermining stability. particular climate as as as severe canbe geopo- effects vulnerable ofclimate interms change andsecurity, in High mountainsanddensely populated areas are highly challengesrity related to water. levels which would alsoaddress climate change andsecu- management challenges at andnational transboundary commissions, could help to better address existing water sin-wide co-operation mechanisms, including water basin waterof transboundary ecosystems suggests that ba- socioeconomic andnatural systems. The importance water andlandmanagement reducing by stress onthe T echnical interventions cansupport theimprovementechnical in interventions

Key area 4:FacilitatingKey communication andraising area 3:StrengtheningKey relevant policies, insti- area 2:Support to regional dialogue andco-Key contributions aptation measureswell and public as individual as ness campaigns on climate change andsecurity, ad- Develop andimplementcomprehensive publicaware y risks t hen t he resilience y risks 11 - -

Climate Change and Security in Central Asia CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY CENTRAL ASIA