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Flood Abatement Assessment for Neuse River Basin 6

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Flood Abatement Assessment for Neuse River Basin 6 _____________________________________________________________________________ Flood Abatement Assessment for Neuse River Basin Barbara Doll1,2, PhD, PE Daniel Line2, PE Jack Kurki-Fox 2, PhD Jonathan Page2, PE 1NC Sea Grant, 2NC State University, Biological & Agricultural Engineering Dept. NCDOT Project RP-2018-32 FHWA/NC/2018-32 June 2020 _____________________________________________________________________________ Page intentionally left blank _____________________________________________________________________________ Technical Report Documentation Page 1. Report No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient’s Catalog No. FHWA/NC/2018-32 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date June 30, 2020 Flood Abatement Assessment for Neuse River Basin 6. Performing Organization Code 7. Author(s) 8. Performing Organization Report No. Barbara A. Doll, PhD, PE; Dan Line, PE, Jack Kurki-Fox PhD, Jonathan Page, PE 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS) North Carolina State University, Biological & Agricultural Engineering Dept. and 11. Contract or Grant No. NC Sea Grant. 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13. Type of Report and Period Covered North Carolina Department of Transportation Final Report Research and Development Unit Final Report 104 Fayetteville Street Contract Period: 1/15/18 to 6/30/19 Raleigh, North Carolina 27601 Supplementary Notes: 16. Abstract NC State University conducted hydrologic and hydraulic modeling and engineering analyses, coordinated technical meetings, and organized community outreach efforts focused on flood mitigation for the Neuse River Basin. The objectives of the study were to better understand the sources and nature of riverine flooding, test potential flood mitigation measures, improve early warning systems for transportation-related infrastructure, evaluate future storm severity and identify potential improvements to local floodplain ordinances. Hydrologic and hydraulic models acquired from North Carolina Emergency Management served as the foundation for much of the modeling efforts, which focused primarily on Smithfield, Goldsboro and Kinston. In addition, two-dimensional hydraulic models were developed to evaluate the effects of bridges at several locations. Modeling indicated limited flood reduction benefits for increasing the capacity of bridges along the river with the exception of the combined expansion of three bridges in Smithfield. Tributary crossings subject to flash flooding were evaluated and prioritized for replacement in the three communities and the least impacted, most critical north-south and east-west routes were identified. Upgrades could further be prioritized by focusing on developing these routes into resilient corridors that would provide access during and shortly after flooding events. NCSU also developed recommendations for improving early warning of transportation impacts during extreme flooding. Relationships between the incipient point of flooding for nine critical road locations and river stage at nearby USGS stream gages were established. Locations where new river gages should be installed to improve road closure prediction and validation of modeling efforts were recommended. Working with UNC-Chapel Hill, NCSU also identified more stringent floodplain protection protocols that would help flood-prone communities improve their resilience to flooding. Modifications to existing floodplain ordinances for Smithfield, Goldsboro and Kinston were prepared. Finally, modeling of future storms considering a warming climate and continued development south and east of Raleigh revealed that expanded urban growth will result in a relatively small increase in peak discharge (6.2%) compared to a potential very large increase (158%) that is estimated for a Matthew-scale event by end of the century (2070-2100), if we continue with business as usual (i.e., no efforts to reduce emissions). This peak flow increase would raise flood levels by more than 2 feet in the communities along the River. 17. Key Words 18. Distribution Statement Floods, hydrology, hydraulics, disaster resilience, climate change 19. Security Classif. (of this report) 20. Security Classif. (of this page) 21. No. of Pages 22. Price Unclassified Unclassified 187 Pages Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-72) Reproduction of completed page authorized _____________________________________________________________________________ DISCLAIMER The contents of this report reflect the views of the author(s) and not necessarily the views of the University. The author(s) are responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the data presented herein. The contents do not necessarily reflect the official views or policies of either the North Carolina Department of Transportation or the Federal Highway Administration at the time of publication. This report does not constitute a standard, specification, or regulation. _____________________________________________________________________________ Table of Contents 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 4 2 Characterize the Neuse River Basin Land Use Conditions .................................................... 6 2.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 6 2.2 Land Use Change Analysis .............................................................................................. 6 2.2.1 Overall Changes ........................................................................................................ 6 2.2.2 Spatial Land Use Trends ........................................................................................... 6 2.2.3 Subbasin Trends ........................................................................................................ 7 2.2.4 Development in the 100-yr Floodplain ..................................................................... 9 2.3 Precipitation and Discharge Trends ............................................................................... 10 2.4 Falls Lake ....................................................................................................................... 11 2.4.1 Historical Extreme Events and Falls Lake .............................................................. 12 2.4.2 The Impacts Falls Lake Discharges on Downstream Flood Stage ......................... 14 2.4.3 Duration of River Flooding ..................................................................................... 17 2.4.4 Long-term Annual Peak Discharge and Fall Lake .................................................. 18 2.4.5 Falls Lake Summary ............................................................................................... 18 2.5 Consideration of Reservoirs in the Neuse Basin. ........................................................... 18 3 Conduct Outreach Activities with Stakeholders ................................................................... 20 4 Improve Early Warning Systems for Critical Transportation Routes ................................... 21 4.1 Proposed River/Stream Gages for Neuse Basin ............................................................. 21 4.1.1 High priority............................................................................................................ 22 4.1.2 Medium to low priority ........................................................................................... 23 4.1.3 Low priority (not listed on the Table 4-1 below) .................................................... 24 4.2 Developing relationships between USGS gage data and key roads to provide an alert system for overtopping. ............................................................................................................ 26 4.2.1 Methods................................................................................................................... 26 4.2.2 Results ..................................................................................................................... 27 4.2.3 Summary ................................................................................................................. 33 4.3 Future Early Warning Systems ...................................................................................... 34 5 Effects of Modifying Bridge Crossings over the Neuse River ............................................. 35 5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 35 5.2 Evaluation Process ......................................................................................................... 35 Flood Abatement Assessment for Neuse River Basin Final Report June 30, 2020 NC DOT i _____________________________________________________________________________ 5.3 Smithfield - Neuse River at US 301, railroad and I-95 bridges south of Smithfield. .... 35 5.3.1 Background and Modeled Scenarios ...................................................................... 35 5.3.2 Results ..................................................................................................................... 39 5.4 Goldsboro - Neuse River at Arrington Bridge Road south of Goldsboro ...................... 45 5.4.1 Background and Modeled Scenarios ...................................................................... 45 5.4.2 Results ....................................................................................................................
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